US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

3. Bündnisse und internationale Diplomatie

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The Observer vom 07.09.2019

"Money from arms sales dwarfs aid for Yemen"

Emma Graham-Harrison weist darauf hin, dass die Summe der humanitären Hilfslieferungen Großbritanniens an Jemen vom Umfang der britischen Waffenlieferungen an die von Saudi-Arabien angeführte Militärkoalition einer neuen Oxfam-Studie zufolge um ein Vielfaches übertroffen wird. "Britain has earned eight times more from arms sales to Saudi Arabia and other members of the coalition fighting in Yemen than it has spent on aid to help civilians caught up in the conflict, a report has found. Campaigners have criticised the approach as 'completely incoherent'. (...) Britain has given £770m in food, medicines and other assistance to civilians in Yemen over the past half decade, the report by Oxfam found, making the country the sixth largest recipient of British aid. But over the same period it has made £6.2bn of arms sales to members of the coalition fighting there, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates."

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Deutsche Welle vom 07.09.2019

"Opinion: Iran must save P5+1 nuclear deal — not the EU"

Nach Ansicht des F.A.Z.-Journalisten Rainer Hermann liegt die Verantwortung für die Zukunft des internationalen Atomabkommens nicht bei der EU, sondern beim Iran. "If they intended to abandon the nuclear agreement, which the US withdrew from last year, they would simply ignore Iran's obligations under the agreement. But that's not what they are doing. Instead, Iran is violating the agreement bit by bit, starting with minor infringements. (...) Iran's high expectations stand in contrast to the expectations of the three EU countries — one of which has already been fulfilled. They asked Iran to, as a confidence-building measure, stop pursuing its politics of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials have realized that this is not in the country's interests: For every ship seized, the United States will reinforce its mission to secure the freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf. A further confidence-building measure could be for the country to voluntarily to end its violations of the nuclear agreement. However, Iranian officials want to use those as leverage. So far, that has not worked to their advantage."

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Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty vom 05.09.2019

"Putin: Russia To Produce Previously Banned Missiles, Deploy Them Only If U.S. Does"

Präsident Putin hat angekündigt, dass Russland nach dem Ende des INF-Vertrags die Produktion bisher verbotener Mittelstreckenraketen plane. Ob diese Raketen tatsächlich stationiert werden, hänge von den USA ab. "'We will make such missiles, of course, but we will not deploy them in the regions where no ground-based missile systems of this class manufactured by the United States have emerged,' he added. After accusing Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty for years, the United Sates officially withdrew on August 2 from the pact banning ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. (...) Putin said in Vladivostok that he was concerned by comments from Washington concerning the deployment of missiles in Japan and South Korea since those sites are close enough to strike Russian territory."

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Voice of America vom 05.09.2019

"Report: Top US Official in Talks With Houthi Rebels in Bid to End Yemen War"

Vertreter der US-Regierung befinden sich Berichten zufolge in Gesprächen mit den Huthi-Rebellen in Jemen, um die Aussichten für ein Ende des Krieges auszuloten. "'We are narrowly focused on trying to end the war in Yemen,' David Schenker, assistant secretary of Near Eastern Affairs, told reporters during a visit to Saudi Arabia, according to Agence France-Presse. 'We are also having talks to the extent possible with the Houthis to try and find a mutually accepted negotiated solution to the conflict.' (...) The Houthis launched an offensive against the Yemeni government in 2015, followed by a Saudi-led military intervention against the rebels, leading to a more complex conflict. Three months after the beginning of the Saudi military campaign, former U.S. President Barack Obama's administration held brief talks with Houthi leaders to convince them to attend U.N.-sponsored peace talks in Geneva. The Geneva talks and subsequent rounds of negotiations were unsuccessful, pushing the impoverished country to the brink of famine."

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Lobelog vom 05.09.2019

"Why Iran’s Strategy Of Reversible Escalation Is Working"

Eldar Mamedov hält die iranische Strategie der "kalkulierten Eskalation" im Streit um das Atomabkommen bisher für durchaus erfolgreich. "(...) Iran forced a number of key players to change their cost-benefit calculus. Europe has been unable, so far, to deliver economic dividends to Iran to keep it in the JCPOA. Yet Iran’s moves to lower its compliance with the JCPOA and seize a British tanker sounded alarm bells in Europe. They showed that Tehran was not bluffing when it threatened to reduce its nuclear commitments and prevent others from shipping oil through the Persian Gulf as long as it was prevented from doing the same. The fear of further destabilization of the region and associated costs for Europe was a major factor behind Macron’s proactive Iran diplomacy. At the same time, Iran’s escalation was limited and reversible. It did not involve major violations of the JCPOA, so as not to push Europe over to the U.S. position. (...) Iran’s strategy, adroitly executed by Zarif and his team of diplomats, is responsible for getting the country to the threshold of direct talks with the United States, and on relatively even terms at that. For talks to take place and succeed, it is now up to the U.S. side to play ball."

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National Interest vom 05.09.2019

"Trump Channels Reagan on Path Toward Arms Control"

James Jay Carafano von der konservativen Heritage Foundation begrüßt die Demontage der globalen Rüstungskontrolle durch US-Präsident Trump als überfälligen Impuls zur notwendigen Transformation des Systems. Trump sei dabei wie Amtsvorgänger Reagan in den 1980er Jahren nicht an politischen Prozessen, sondern an handfesten Resultaten interessiert. "Obama was a process guy. He shared the hope of a world without nuclear weapons, embracing an approach called 'global zero,' under which the United States would try to foster denuclearization by minimizing America’s reliance on a strategic deterrent. (...) Unfortunately, all this accomplished was to contribute to a strategic imbalance: Russia and China expanded and modernized their nuclear arsenals while America allowed its deterrent to atrophy. Even before the end of Mr. Obama’s presidency, it was clear that the campaign for global zero was a bust. (...) None of this means that Trump is anti-arms control or wants a new arms race. Rather, he is following Reagan’s proven formula of defense. He wants to show a credible nuclear deterrent and then set about putting into place arms control agreements that actually reduce threats. Here is the Trumpian wrinkle. Trump knows there is no hope of erecting a realistic global arms control regime that doesn’t include China."

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Reuters vom 04.09.2019

"Iran gives Europe two more months to save nuclear deal"

Iran will der EU zwei weitere Monate Zeit geben, um die zugesagten Sanktionsentlastungen für Teheran umzusetzen und das internationale Atomabkommen zu retten. "Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani gave European powers another two months to save a 2015 nuclear deal on Wednesday, but warned that Tehran was still preparing for further significant breaches of the agreement if diplomatic efforts failed. (...) Iran would continue with plans to breach the pact further and accelerate its nuclear activity, Rouhani said, without giving a fresh deadline. (...) Iran’s vital crude oil sales have plummeted by more than 80% under the U.S. sanctions. The remaining signatories of the deal have been working to save an agreement that they say will bring Iran back into the international fold and prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear bomb."

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The Times of Israel vom 04.09.2019

"Rouhani: Starting Friday, Iran to develop faster nuclear enrichment centrifuges"

Irans Präsident Rohani habe den nächsten Schritt der iranischen Abkehr vom internationalen Atomabkommen angekündigt und damit die Europäer weiter unter Druck gesetzt, berichtet Nasser Karimi. "(...) Rouhani elaborated, saying in comments aired on state TV that starting on Friday, Iran’s atomic agency would work on the research and development of 'all kinds' of centrifuge machines that can more quickly enrich uranium. However, he said the activities will be 'peaceful' and under surveillance of the UN nuclear watchdog. (...) Both Rouhani and Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed doubts Europe would succeed in salvaging the nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers. (...) 'I see that it’s unlikely a conclusion will be reached with Europe today or tomorrow,' Rouhani said. Araghchi was quoted by the official IRNA news agency as saying 'it is unlikely European countries can take an effective step' before the deadline."

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ipg-journal vom 03.09.2019

"Russland nicht in die Arme Chinas treiben"

Claudia Detsch im Gespräch mit dem Leiter des "Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques" (IRIS), Pascal Boniface, über die französische Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik unter Emmanuel Macron. "Emmanuel Macron will sich auf eine europäische strategische Autonomie hinbewegen. Er greift damit auf ein altbekanntes französisches Projekt im Stile De Gaulles und Mitterrands zurück, zu dem er sich bekennt. Diese europäische strategische Autonomie soll nicht gegen die Vereinigten Staaten gerichtet sein. Sie besteht einfach darin, aus einer Abhängigkeit herauszukommen, deren historische Wurzeln (der Kalte Krieg und die drohende sowjetische Übermacht) nicht mehr existieren."

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The Times of Israel vom 03.09.2019

"France seeks $15b letter of credit for Iran to keep nuclear deal alive"

Frankreich will Iran offenbar eine Kreditlinie von 15 Milliarden US-Dollar anbieten, um Teheran im internationalen Atomabkommen zu halten. "According to The New York Times, which cited a US official and Iranian reports, the proposed sum was aimed at salvaging the accord after US President Donald Trump withdrew from the pact last year and reimposed biting sanctions on Iran, including on its oil sector. The $15 billion package would make up for about half of Iran’s annual oil sales, the report said, and ease some of the economic pressure on it. On Sunday, a conservative Iranian lawmaker said French President Emmanuel Macron had proposed a $15 billion line of credit on condition Iran returns to the fold."

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The National Interest vom 30.08.2019

"Denmark Might Not Sell Greenland to America, but It Is Selling Its Resources to China"

Petri Mäkelä schreibt, dass Dänemark, das dem Grönland-Interesse des US-Präsidenten eine unmissverständliche Absage erteilt habe, offenbar kein Problem darin sehe, Standorte und strategische Ressourcen in Grönland an China zu verkaufen. "China has been heavily buying in to Greenland and its vast natural resources. The true quantity of the resources is only slowly getting revealed as the continental ice is melting due to the climate change. (...) If China was given a possibility to control the ports and airports in Greenland, it would cause serious problems for NATO operations in the northern European theater. The Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap has long been the focus point of naval planning for the possible showdown between NATO and Russia in Europe. On the other hand Greenland could also be used to stage operations aimed to disable the Russian forces in the Arctic. (...) While the USA has a military presence in Greenland, it currently has very little control over the strategically important resources there and Chinese offers may be too tempting for the largely autonomic Greenland government and the cash strapped leaders in Copenhagen. Buying Greenland as a whole is off the table, but China is raiding the all-you-can-eat buffet there."

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Project Syndicate vom 29.08.2019

"Will the Iran Conflict Break the West?"

Der EU würde im Fall eines eskalierenden Konflikts zwischen den USA und dem Iran wohl keine andere Wahl bleiben, als sich den USA anzuschließen, meint Mark Leonard vom European Council on Foreign Relations. Er erläutert, welche Iran-Strategie die Europäer seiner Ansicht nach verfolgen sollten. "The fate of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal could determine not only whether the world’s most combustible region descends into a nuclear-arms race, but also whether the Western political alliance can survive. (...) Europe’s ability to maintain support for the Iran deal in defiance of US pressure has surprised many. Even the British government has adhered closely to the EU position so far. But that could change. (...) To head off these risks, Macron is asking Trump to consider sanctions exemptions if Iran complies once more with the nuclear deal by curtailing its enrichment activities and opens the door to further talks with the West. (...) The Europeans also must persuade the Iranians not to overestimate their own power. (...) Finally, Europeans need to keep a close eye on the Persian Gulf. Even if they aren’t going to organize a joint naval force, they should be developing a de-escalation strategy in case the US or Iran provokes a confrontation. Organizing a naval conference that includes Iran could be a prudent first step."

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New York Times vom 29.08.2019

"In Iran’s Hierarchy, Talks With Trump Are Now Seen as Inevitable"

In iranischen Führungskreisen habe sich die Überzeugung durchgesetzt, dass der Konflikt mit den USA wohl nicht ohne Gespräche mit Präsident Trump beizulegen sei, berichtet Farnaz Fassihi. Hintergrund sei die Erwartung der Wiederwahl Trumps und die Sorge, dass Iran den harten US-Sanktionen vier weitere Jahre nicht widerstehen würde. "It is a remarkable turnabout for the political establishment in Tehran, which for the past 40 years has staked its legitimacy on defiance of the United States but has been particularly hostile toward Mr. Trump. President Hassan Rouhani of Iran teased a possible meeting with Mr. Trump earlier this week, indicating he would be willing if it would benefit Iranians. Mr. Rouhani reversed himself within 24 hours, suggesting he may have been overruled by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But the people with knowledge of the Iranian hierarchy’s thinking said Mr. Rouhani’s behavior should be viewed as part of the emerging new strategy. They said the strategy was following two parallel tracks: displaying a more defiant position on Iran’s military and nuclear energy policies to irritate Mr. Trump, while signaling a willingness to talk under certain conditions, appealing to what are seen as his deal-maker instincts."

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The Hill vom 28.08.2019

"Why Greenland is really about China"

Auch Nadia Schadlow vom Hudson Institute in Washington meint, dass die amerikanischen Überlegungen über einen Erwerb Grönlands vor dem Hintergrund der Rivalität mit China betrachtet werden sollten. Die USA suchten einen Weg, um der globalen Investitionsstrategie Pekings entgegenzutreten. "(...) the real story underlying this interest is that China has long understood the relationship between commercial infrastructure projects and global power, and it has weaponized many of its commercial relationships. Washington has yet to develop a strategy to counter Beijing. President Trump reportedly became concerned when he learned about the extent of Chinese investments in this strategic island, which lies at a critical juncture in the North Atlantic, contains rare earth mineral deposits, and is home to a United States Air Force base that is central to American homeland defense architecture. China has recognized the importance of Greenland since at least 2015, when its state enterprises began to invest in mining companies there. (...) Chinese rare earth investments are just one example, close to American shores, of the broader Belt and Road Initiative announced in 2013. (...) Once implemented, these actions provide a foundation for Chinese influence and control below the level of overt military power. It is a form of 21st century strategic depth. The United States must do a much better job of integrating its capabilities to succeed in this competitive geopolitical landscape."

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CNN vom 28.08.2019

"Weirdly, Trump seeks peace with Iran while Netanyahu battles it"

Aaron David Miller stellt nach dem G7-Gipfel in Biarritz fest, dass US-Präsident Trump offenbar eine friedliche Lösung des Konflikts mit dem Iran anstrebe. Zugleich habe Israel seine Militäroperationen gegen von Teheran unterstützte Milizen verstärkt. "The question of whether we are moving toward war or peace with Iran has been made even more complex by the onset of Israeli elections set for September 17. The possibility that Trump may actually meet Rouhani (there has not been any high-level US-Iranian engagement since the 1979 Iranian revolution) must have thrown Netanyahu for a giant loop. There has been no reaction from the Prime Minister. But here he is running a reelection campaign on the basis of his close relationship with Donald Trump -- the man who took America out of the what Netanyahu believes is a horrible nuclear accord. And here is his good friend considering meeting with the Iranian president or, worse still, negotiating with him. And unlike his determined effort to criticize Obama for the 2015 nuclear accord, Netanyahu can't say a negative word about Trump's possible meeting, lest he alienate him."

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