US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

4. Militär und bewaffnete Konflikte

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NBC News vom 04.11.2018

"China's Xi and a retired U.S. general have both brought up war. How worried should the world be?"

In den vergangenen Tagen haben sowohl der im Ruhestand stehende US-General Ben Hodges als auch Chinas Präsident Xi Jinping die Möglichkeit eines Krieges zwischen den USA und China thematisiert. Alexander Smith schreibt, dass viele Experten vor dieser rhetorischen Eskalation warnen, zugleich aber darauf hinweisen, dass ein Krieg sehr unwahrscheinlich bleibe. "Many experts say that type of tough talk carries grave risks. But most believe the world is a considerable ways away from a war between its two largest economies. (...) 'Are we going to see a conflict soon, like Steve Bannon's doomsday proclamation? I tend to be a little less apocalyptic than that. I tend to think that cooler heads will eventually prevail,' [Raffaello Pantucci, director of International Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute,] added. One thing to remember, according to experts, is that China is not Russia. Russia has a relatively small economy and is less powerful than it was 30 years ago. It punches above its weight by sowing chaos and using hard power in places like Syria, Ukraine and Georgia, not to mention the ever-present threat of nuclear annihilation. 'That is not China's game; China's game is to become the world's biggest power,' Pantucci said. 'It doesn't want a nuclear war, because nuclear war is not conducive to growth.'"

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Al-Monitor vom 04.11.2018

"Saudi Arabia ignores Trump administration on Yemen"

Saudi-Arabien habe den amerikanischen Aufruf zu einem neuen Waffenstillstand in Jemen nicht nur ignoriert, sondern die Luftangriffe in den letzten Tagen sogar weiter verschärft, schreibt Bruce Riedel. "(...) the Saudis have escalated their airstrikes on Sanaa and Hodeidah instead. The capital and the main port have been heavily pounded by the Saudi coalition since Pompeo and Mattis spoke. (...) The crown prince is well aware that he is the potential fall guy if his war is perceived to be a failure. The crown prince is counting on the Trump administration to stick with him given the blank check it has provided for Saudi Arabia in the last two years. The Khashoggi affair will fade away, and the president will never take serious action regarding the war. So far he has been right."

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The National Interest vom 03.11.2018

"Why the U.S. Military Won't Give Up Its Cluster Bombs"

Daniel R. DePetris erläutert, warum das US-Militär nicht auf den Einsatz von international geächteten Streubomben verzichten will. "Whereas global advocacy organizations and many of America’s allies in Europe and Asia consider clusters indiscriminate weapons that should be locked up and decommissioned, the Defense Department believes these munitions are some of the more discriminatory weapons on the market. Washington has refused to sign the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions , a multilateral treaty that bans the use, production, stockpile, acquisition, development and transfer of cluster munitions in its entirety, precisely because of that interpretation. (...) From the Pentagon’s standpoint, eliminating cluster munitions of all sizes, blast radiuses and types would be making the U.S. military’s job harder. Warfighters understandably don’t want to limit the tools in their toolbox. As long as other nations like Russia and China refuse to become a state party to the Convention on Cluster Munitions, the United States will resist the pressure to do so. And depending on the specific target, there may be instances where a cluster is a more precise munition compared to a more conventional bomb."

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Al Jazeera English vom 30.10.2018

"Is a US-China war in Asia inevitable?"

Experten und Mitarbeiter der chinesischen und der US-Regierung fassen James Reinl zufolge zunehmend einen drohenden Krieg zwischen beiden Ländern ins Auge. Als mögliche Auslöser werden demnach Taiwan und der Territorialstreit im Südchinesischen Meer genannt. "Al Jazeera spoke with US-China experts who said while all-out conflict was possible, there remained chances to negotiate, compromise and manage a competitive relationship between Washington and Beijing that did not need turn ugly. 'They're both preparing for it, but it would take an incredibly stupid leadership in both countries to end up in a war between the US and China,' Bonnie Glaser, a former Pentagon consultant, told Al Jazeera. (...) 'There's a whole basket of issues that could lead to a US-China conflict,' Gregory Poling, an Asia and maritime law expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Al Jazeera. 'The South China Sea is the thorniest. It gets right at the heart of US primacy in the region, the international order that Washington built up since World War II and China's willingness to bully neighbours and challenge that rules-based order.'"

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Breaking Defense vom 29.10.2018

"No, Trump Has Not Started a Nuclear Arms Race With INF Pullout"

Matthew Costlow verteidigt die Entscheidung des US-Präsidenten gegen den INF-Vertrag und erläutert, warum es seiner Ansicht nach nicht zu einem atomaren Wettrüsten mit Russland kommen wird. "Now that intermediate-range systems will no longer be subject to treaty limits, the United States and Russia will be off to the races, right? Wrong. (...) it is not a binary choice between weapons covered by a treaty or an arms race – there is a lot of room in between. In addition, another factor works against a prospective arms race: the U.S. weapons acquisition bureaucracy. In 2014, the Air Force reportedly began the process to purchase a new intercontinental ballistic missile to replace the rapidly-aging current system. It will not see a new missile in the field reportedly until 15 years after the fact, 2029. A similar un-race-like timeline can likely be expected for most other U.S. nuclear systems. (...) In the end, arms races are generally not the fast-paced showdowns that everyone imagines. Phantasmagoric images of President Trump and National Security Advisor John Bolton maniacally laughing as they tear up arms control treaties for fun are just that, fictitious."

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Spiegel Online vom 29.10.2018

"Russische Marine übt in Nato-Manövergebiet"

Die russische Marine will zwischen dem 1. und 3. November einen Raketentest vor der Westküste Norwegens durchführen, berichtet Spiegel Online. Dem norwegischen Militär sei das Vorhaben bekannt. Es würde das derzeit in der selben Region stattfindende Nato-Manöver Trident Juncture jedoch nicht beeinträchtigen, so der norwegische Avinor-Kommunikationschef Erik Lødding im staatlichen norwegischen Rundfunk.

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Augen Geradeaus! vom 29.10.2018

"Trident Juncture: Es geht nicht nur um den Kampf um die Brücke von Telneset"

Thomas Wiegold berichtet vor Ort vom Nato-Manöver "Trident Juncture" und der Rolle der Bundeswehr während der Übung. "Wir wollten zeigen, dass wir das können, sagt Brigadegeneral Ullrich Spannuth, der deutsche Kommandeur der NATO-Eingreiftruppe. Eine ganze Brigade in einer, wie die Militärs es nennen, strategischen Verlegung in ein anderes NATO-Land zu verlegen, diese Fähigkeit zu demonstrieren und damit zur Abschreckung beizutragen – das habe die Bundeswehr noch niemal gemacht, auch nicht zu Zeiten der Blockkonfrontation. Denn damals blieb die Bundeswehr auch bei Großübungen immer auf dem Gebiet der damaligen Bundesrepublik."

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South China Morning Post vom 27.10.2018

"'Prepare for war', Xi Jinping tells military region that monitors South China Sea, Taiwan"

Chinas Präsident Xi Jinping hat bei seinem Besuch des regionalen Militärkommandos im Süden Chinas deutlich gemacht, dass sich die dort stationierten Truppen auch auf einen möglichen Kriegsfall vorbereiten müssten. "One of the primary missions of the Southern Theatre Command is overseeing the South China Sea, an area where tensions and military activity involving China, the US and other powers have been growing steadily. (...) Military observers said Xi’s comments were most likely intended to boost morale and reiterate Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. 'It’s likely intended as a signal to the US in particular and any parties that Beijing perceives to be causing provocation [in the disputed waters],' said Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore."

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The National Interest vom 27.10.2018

"Forget Russia: Is Finland the Hybrid Warfare Champion?"

Das Konzept der "hybriden Kriegsführung" wird derzeit überwiegend mit Russland in Verbindung gebracht. Michael Peck schreibt, dass das finnische Militär daraus Lehren gezogen und das Konzept erfolgreich in die eigene Defensivstrategie aufgenommen habe. "Unlike its European neighbors, who have moved toward standing professional armies, Finland’s 280,000-strong military is based on a small standing army backed by conscripted reserves. But reserves need time to be mobilized, which is fine for a conventional war but not hybrid warfare: for example, Russia used special forces and paramilitary fighters to seize Crimea in a few days. That’s especially worrisome to Finland, which shares an eight-hundred-mile border with Russia. Finland’s solution has been to create company-sized 'readiness units,' rapid reaction forces consisting of conscripts who have completed their six-month training and go on readiness duty for the next six. (...) Finland’s anti-hybrid warfare system seems impressive. 'Some close observers in Finland as well as abroad claim that the Finnish Army has become among the best in Europe at delivering sizable combat power at short notice,' the report notes."

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World Politics Review vom 26.10.2018

"NATO Is Focusing on the Wrong Russian Threat in Eastern Europe"

Michael Cecire meint, dass die NATO sich bei der Analyse der russischen "Bedrohung" Osteuropas bisher zu stark auf die offensiven Kapazitäten des russischen Militärs konzentriere. Im Fall einer Cecire zufolge immerhin "extrem unwahrscheinlichen" russischen Invasion osteuropäischer Länder wären es die russischen Luft- und Raketenabwehrsysteme, die die NATO seiner Ansicht nach vor die größten Probleme stellen würden. "Though it fails to evoke the same urgency as the specter of a Russian invasion, it is Russia’s ability to prevent NATO forces from countering such an invasion — as well as coercive campaigns that fall short of war — that effectively gives it escalation dominance over large swaths of Eastern Europe, Eurasia and even the Eastern Mediterranean. (...) In tandem with an array of radar and electronic warfare infrastructure, such capabilities place hard limits on NATO forces’ freedom of action in the region. Legitimate fears and frustrations expressed by front-line NATO states and key non-NATO partners aspiring to accession, such as Georgia and Ukraine, should be seen in this context. Even short of a conflict scenario, NATO’s options and freedom of maneuver are constrained in theaters with high densities of Russian anti-access, area-denial infrastructure."

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The Moscow Times vom 25.10.2018

"Russia Will Target European Countries if They Host U.S. Nuclear Missiles — Putin"

Russlands Präsident Putin hat angesichts des drohenden Endes des INF-Vertrags angekündigt, auf die Stationierung neuer US-Mittelstreckenraketen in Europa entsprechend zu reagieren. "Putin told reporters on Wednesday that Russia would have to respond in kind and would do so swiftly if the United States quit the pact. 'Answering your question directly, can we respond,' Putin said, when asked what Russia would do if Trump made good on his pledge to leave the treaty. 'We can, and it will be very fast and very effective,' he said. 'If the United States does withdraw from the INF treaty, the main question is what they will do with these [intermediate-range] missiles that will once again appear.' 'If they will deliver them to Europe, naturally our response will have to mirror this, and European countries that agree to host them, if things go that far, must understand that they are putting their own territory at risk of a possible counter-strike.' Putin said he did not understand why it was necessary to put Europe in such danger, saying it was a situation that Russia itself wanted to avoid if possible."

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NBC News vom 24.10.2018

"Retired U.S. general says war with China likely in 15 years"

Der frühere Oberbefehlshaber der US-Streitkräfte in Europa, Ben Hodges, hält es für "sehr wahrscheinlich", dass zwischen den USA und China in den kommenden 15 Jahren ein Krieg ausbrechen wird. "The former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe warned Wednesday that it's very likely the United States will be at war with China in 15 years. Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges said that European allies will have to do more to ensure their own defenses in face of a resurgent Russia because America will need to focus more attention on defending its interests in the Pacific. 'The United States needs a very strong European pillar. I think in 15 years — it's not inevitable — but it is a very strong likelihood that we will be at war with China,' Hodges told a packed room at the Warsaw Security Forum".

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Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung vom 24.10.2018

"Von der Leyen gesteht Fehler ein"

Bundesverteidigungsministerin Ursula von der Leyen will auf die Mängel bei der Vergabe von Beraterverträgen reagieren und eine zentrale Vergabestelle für solche Tätigkeiten einrichten, berichtet die Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

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Defense One vom 23.10.2018

"How to Keep a Cyberattack from Turning into Nuclear War? Keep Talking"

Ankit Panda hält die Möglichkeit, dass ein Cyberangriff auf kritische Infrastrukturen in den USA mit einem Atomangriff beantwortet werden könnte, angesichts der Änderungen in der Nuklearstrategie der US-Regierung für durchaus realistisch. "One danger that merits special attention is the possibility of a North Korean cyberattack escalating out of control – one that sparks an American counterstrike using conventional weapons so intense that Pyongyang responds with an attempted nuclear missile attack on the United States. Or, a scenario where a North Korean cyberattack hits an American target so vital that it elicits an American nuclear missile strike in return. It’s not fantasy. These dynamics are particularly salient given certain policy changes introduced by the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review, or NPR. (...) The Trump administration never should have specified the 'extreme circumstances' that might lead to the United States considering nuclear use. (...) Before a miscalculation or provocation has a chance to test the Trump NPR’s boundaries, U.S. officials in their ongoing talks with North Koreans should make their intentions on nuclear weapons and cyberattacks crystal clear."

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NewAfrican vom 23.10.2018

"Portugal takes cautious steps back into Africa"

Portugal sei dabei, seine jahrzehntelange Zurückhaltung bei der Entsendung von Kampftruppen nach Afrika aufzugeben, berichtet Joseph Hammond. "A unit of 40 Portuguese soldiers leads the EU training mission in Central African Republic (CAR). Furthermore, some 160 Portuguese special forces from 1st Paras Battalion are present in CAR as part of Portugal’s response to a call from France. Its Special Forces unit in CAR represents the first Portuguese soldiers to engage in substantial fire fights and conduct. Decades after it lost its colonial empire in Africa, Portugal is committing forces to a variety of combat missions across the continent. The new missions come with their own share of controversy. (...) Portugal’s new military intervention in Africa is not without its critics. 'By inserting itself into an alien geopolitical ecosystem, Portugal is multiplying its diplomatic liabilities without acquiring any semblance of benefit in return,' says Miguel Nunes Silva, a Portuguese foreign policy analyst."

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