US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Foreign Policy


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"Mohammed bin Salman Is the Next Saddam Hussein"

Auch Ryan Costello und Sina Toossi vergleichen die amerikanische Unterstützung für den saudi-arabischen Kronprinzen Mohammed bin Salman mit der langjährigen Allianz der USA mit Iraks Diktator Saddam Hussein. In Irak hätten die USA im Namen ihrer Iran-Politik einen schweren strategischen Fehler begangen. Dies könnte sich nun wiederholen, so ihre Warnung. "(...) the Trump administration’s reflexive support of Mohammed bin Salman is heading in the same direction as Washington’s ill-fated support of Saddam Hussein. (...) Mohammed bin Salman, if allowed to ascend to the throne without facing any consequences from Washington for his outrageous behavior, will likely terrorize the region for decades, just as Saddam did. If Khashoggi’s brazen slaughter, carried out in utter disregard for international norms or the political cost for its allies, is a sign of a new Saudi playbook, the world may be facing an even greater threat than Saddam posed."

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"When to Call a Terrorist a Terrorist"

Daniel Byman fordert aus ganz praktischen Gründen, Attentate wie das von Pittsburgh künftig als Terroranschläge zu behandeln. "If the government started seeing violent anti-Semitic or white supremacist groups as more like jihadist groups, several things could change. First, doing so might mean more resources devoted to tracking domestic terrorists. Right now, only a tiny slice of the FBI counterterrorism budget goes to investigating right-wing extremists. (...) Second, the 'terrorism' label could start to push the government to act more quickly at the first hint of possible violence by right-wing and other extremists. (...) Third, clarity about which activities are and aren’t terrorism would help Washington press technology companies to be more aggressive in taking down anti-Semitic, white supremacist, and other inciting accounts. (...) We can and should recognize that most political groups of all stripes abhor violence. Doing so — while also acknowledging that the groups and individuals who don’t belong in a separate category — will better enable the United States to isolate extremists and cut them off before the next tragedy."

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"Germany’s New Politics of Cultural Despair"

Eliah Bures, Historiker an der University of California, beschäftigt sich in diesem Beitrag mit dem kulturellen Einfluss von Ideen der "Neuen Rechten" in Deutschland und Europa. Dabei bezieht er sich u.a. auf das Buch "Die autoritäre Revolte: Die Neue Rechte und der Untergang des Abendlandes" von Volker Weiss. "[Volker Weiss’s] claim that we are in the grip of a globally insurgent conservative revolution is no stretch and for the reasons Dahl feared two decades ago. Feelings of nihilism and cultural exhaustion have produced a hunger for radical redemption, especially among those who have come of age since the 1990s. The dominant form of revolt today is not the left’s battle against capitalism or patriarchy but authoritarianism fueled by nostalgia, hatred of the present, and dread of the future. The politics of grievance and purported victimization at the hands of global elites thrive today from Moscow to Washington".

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"The Saudis Are Killing America’s Middle East Policy"

Mit dem Mord an dem Journalisten Jamal Khashoggi habe der saudi-arabische Kronprinz Mohammed bin Salman nicht nur sein Ansehen in Washington ruiniert, sondern auch die Nahostpolitik der US-Regierung untergraben, schreibt Steven A. Cook. "It seems that the new Saudis are proving themselves to be as inept, arrogant, and tin-eared as the old Saudis, but worse, because they are emboldened by a mistaken belief in their own greatness. Recently, the editorial board of the Washington Post asked, 'Who needs Saudi Arabia?' It is a good question, and not just because the Post’s editors and reporters are outraged about what happened to their colleague and friend. Look closely at everything the Saudis have done recently, especially those policies associated with the crown prince, and the answer is, 'Not us.' It is true that they recently gave the United States $100 million to go toward the stabilization of Syria, which is a good thing, but the overwhelming record thus far under King Salman and his son can be categorized as either unhelpful or counterproductive."

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"Khashoggi’s Death Is Highlighting the Ottoman-Saudi Islamic Rift"

Der türkische Kolumnist Mustafa Akyol betrachtet den mutmaßlichen Mord an dem Journalisten Jamal Khashoggi im Kontext der dreihundert Jahre andauernden theologischen und politischen Rivalität zwischen der Türkei und Saudi-Arabien. "The foundation of the rift lies in the countries’ distinct versions of Sunni Islam — versions that have evolved within very different historical trajectories and that have produced contrasting visions about the contemporary Middle East. If the present crisis forces the non-Muslim world to choose sides between these religious models, the decision should be easy. Both are flawed, but based on their past actions and ideas for the future, only one of them deserves international support. (...) Erdogan and his fellow Islamists are still Turkey’s Islamists — that is, compared with Saudi Arabia’s elites, they are still operating within a more modern framework that reflects a milder interpretation of Sunni Islam. And this sheds light on the two major political disputes that have emerged between Ankara and Riyadh. The first of these concerns Iran. (...) The second dispute between Ankara and Riyadh is over the Muslim Brotherhood, the main Islamist political party in Egypt with franchises all over the region."

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"This Is America’s Middle East Strategy on Steroids"

Stephen Walt kritisiert die Reaktion des US-Präsidenten auf das Verschwinden des saudi-arabischen Journalisten Jamal Khashoggi. Donald Trump habe die Allianz mit Saudi-Arabien im Gegensatz zu vielen anderen nicht einmal ansatzweise in Frage gestellt und bestehe damit auf einer verfehlten Nahost-Strategie. "(...) the Trump administration seems more than willing to look the other way. This is partly due to greed, as reflected in Trump’s statement that getting tough on Saudi Arabia might jeopardize arms purchases by the kingdom, but also the result of having bought into the Saudi-Israeli-Egyptian-Gulf line about Iran. In addition to leaving the nuclear deal, this policy also required threatening the European Union with secondary sanctions should it try to sustain the agreement and continue to trade with and invest in Iran. (...) Under Trump, the United States is jeopardizing relations with long-standing democratic allies in Europe and giving them additional reason to create an alternative to the U.S. dollar-based financial system. It is doing this in order to gratify a set of increasingly problematic Middle East clients. Does such a swap make strategic or moral sense?"

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"ISIS’s New Plans to Get Rich and Wreak Havoc"

Der "Islamische Staat" galt im Jahr 2015 durch die Einnahmen seines "Kalifats" als reichste Terrororganisation der Geschichte. Nach dem Kollaps der "Pseudo-Regierung" seien diese Einnahmen eingebrochen, schreibt Colin P. Clarke. Aufgrund seiner Rücklagen und der deutlich gesunkenen Ausgaben habe der IS aber als verdeckt operierende Terrororganisation überlebt und plane bereits seine Wiederkehr. "The West tends to view the fight against the Islamic State in discrete phases, bookended by presidential administrations or minor changes in policy. But for the jihadis, it’s all one long campaign and has been since the early days of its founder, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Until the United States and its allies recognize this, the Islamic State is likely to repeat its strategy of going underground before re-emerging in force in perpetuity until the United States completely withdraws its military forces, or until the group is once again able to recapture enough territory to re-engineer the next stage of its caliphate-building project."

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"The Problem Isn’t Fake News From Russia. It’s Us."

In der Debatte über den vermeintlichen Einfluss von Propagandaaktivitäten ausländischer Akteure auf Wahlen im Westen richtet Micah Zenko seinen Blick auf die Bereitschaft vieler Wähler in den USA, "Fake News" in den Sozialen Medien Glauben zu schenken. "(...) one person’s extremist fabulist is another’s brave truth-teller, just as one’s promotion of valid information is another’s weaponization of the same. The issue that Americans have chosen to ignore over the past 20 months is why the public has so deeply embraced and then spread alleged misinformation from China, Iran, or Russia. Politicians and pundits have chosen to blame the United States’ divides on its adversaries, but that is like trying to curb illegal drug use by focusing solely on the foreign countries where the drugs are produced (forgetting, of course, that many drugs are produced at home). The appetite for selective, biased, or partisan information is growing, and it will continue to do so given apparent trends in the U.S. public’s information literacy, critical thinking, and partisanship. The country cannot merely wish away its confirmation biases."

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"What Sort of World Are We Headed for?"

Stephen Walt stellt in diesem Beitrag zur Debatte über die Zukunft der "liberalen Weltordnung" die provokante Frage, ob diese Ordnung jemals wirklich existiert habe. Die globalen Beziehungen werden seiner Ansicht nach auch künftig vor allem von Großmachtpolitik geprägt werden. "Overall, the world of 2025 will be one of 'lopsided multipolarity.' Today’s order isn’t a liberal one (a number of key actors reject liberal ideals), and 2025’s won’t be either. The United States will still be the single most consequential actor on the planet, because no other country will possess the same combination of economic clout, technological sophistication, military might, territorial security, and favorable demography. But its margin of superiority will be smaller than it used to be, and the country will still face long-term fiscal problems and deep political divisions. China will be the world’s No. 2 power (and it will exceed the United States on some dimensions), followed by a number of other major players (Germany, Japan, India, Russia, and so on), all of them considerably weaker than the two leading states."

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"Taiwan Can Win a War With China"

Im Fall einer militärischen Konfrontation zwischen China und Taiwan wäre der Inselstaat zwei neuen Studien zufolge keineswegs hoffnungslos unterlegen, schreibt Tanner Greer. "Two recent studies, one by Michael Beckley, a political scientist at Tufts University, and the other by Ian Easton, a fellow at the Project 2049 Institute, in his book 'The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia', provide us with a clearer picture of what a war between Taiwan and the mainland might look like. Grounded in statistics, training manuals, and planning documents from the PLA itself, and informed by simulations and studies conducted by both the U.S. Defense Department and the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense, this research presents a very different picture of a cross-strait conflict than that hawked by the party’s official announcements. Chinese commanders fear they may be forced into armed contest with an enemy that is better trained, better motivated, and better prepared for the rigors of warfare than troops the PLA could throw against them. A cross-strait war looks far less like an inevitable victory for China than it does a staggeringly risky gamble."

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"Trump Has a New Weapon to Cause 'the Cyber' Mayhem"

Die US-Regierung hat in der vergangenen Woche Elias Groll zufolge einen weiteren Schritt zur Umsetzung einer offensiven Cyberkriegs-Strategie unternommen. Experten schätzten den neuen Kurs als riskant ein. "In rolling out the administration’s new 'National Cyber Strategy,' National Security Advisor John Bolton said that Trump had removed restrictions on the use of offensive cyber-operations and replaced them with a more permissive legal regime that gives the Defense Department and other agencies greater authority to penetrate foreign networks to deter hacks on U.S. systems. (...) One big concern with offensive cyberweapons is that they can cause collateral damage far beyond the original, intended target. In 2017, Russian operatives unleashed the NotPetya ransomware on the Ukrainian financial system, but the virulent worm spread around the world and caused billions of dollars in damage, shut down hospitals, and caused massive disruptions to global shipping and commerce. Granting Defense Department officials the authority to launch retaliatory cyberattacks could risk turning the global internet into a 'free-fire zone,' said Martin Libicki, a professor at the U.S. Naval Academy who has written extensively on deterrence in cyberspace."

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"The Middle East Doesn’t Take China Seriously"

Steven A. Cook schreibt, dass die unbestreitbare wirtschaftliche Macht Chinas im Nahen Osten nicht ausreiche, um als Großmacht mit entsprechendem Einfluss wahrgenommen zu werden. Für Peking sei dies nicht unbedingt von Nachteil. "No one in the Middle East expects the Chinese to be a provider of security, that is what the United States does and the Chinese are all too happy to benefit from it. (...) Contrary to the often breathless commentary about China as a rising power in the Arab world, Beijing’s minimalist approach to the dramas and traumas of the Middle East in favor of economics issues is shrewd in terms of China’s broader ambitions. (...) A day after the United States launched 59 cruise missiles at Syria, while Presidents Trump and Xi were enjoying chocolate cake at Mar a Largo, I called a friend in Beijing to get a sense of the Chinese reaction. He laughed and told me that no one in the Chinese capital was impressed with the American display of 1980s-era technology. 'Besides,' he said, 'anything that keeps the United States bogged down in the crises of the Middle East is good for China. It’s less resources Washington can spend on the South China Sea.' That makes sense — and it’s time the rest of the world realizes it."

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"How to Restart War in the Balkans"

John Bolton, Nationaler Sicherheitsberater von US-Präsident Trump, hat mitgeteilt, dass die US-Regierung sich nicht in die territorialen Konflikte auf dem Balkan einmischen wolle. Nach Ansicht von Edward P. Joseph wiederholt die US-Regierung damit den Fehler von 1991, der zu den blutigen Kriegen der Folgejahre geführt habe. "John Bolton’s statement now threatens to undo the ensuing two decade-plus international effort to make peace. Building on rumors about private talks between the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo to swap territory as a means of ending their standoff, and hints of a change in U.S. policy, Bolton has now given the green light to Serbia and Kosovo to trade territory as a way of ending their decadelong — in fact, centurylong — standoff. (...) Given the relatively high percentage of Islamic State recruits from the region, and the fact that many of them are poised to return, Bolton and other agnostics on territorial exchange should consider the most likely Kosovo-to-Bosnia scenario: the contentious, possibly violent creation of an economically challenged state in the heart of Europe, subject to Islamist influence, and infused with suffering and abandonment as its defining characteristics. The chain reaction of events is entirely plausible. Mere discussion of territorial exchange by the likes of Bolton and senior European officials is enough to tantalize Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who has long spoken of — and taken preliminary steps toward — secession."

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"One Year On, Little to Show for Trump’s Afghanistan Strategy"

17 Jahre nach der Invasion Afghanistans sei kein Ende des Kriegs in Sicht, stellt Lara Seligman fest. Daran habe auch die neue Strategie von US-Präsident Trump nichts geändert. "The strategy has included a greater focus on defending population centers while ceding much of the remote countryside to the insurgents. It has also involved an interdiction campaign against the Taliban, with airstrikes on their narcotics labs and other revenue sources. The goal has been to pressure the Taliban to the negotiating table. Pentagon officials say the measures are working. (...) But the situation on the ground tells a different story. The Taliban maintain their grip on much of the country, and the civilian death toll has reached a record high, according to a recent report by the Pentagon’s inspector general. Also, the Islamic State in Khorasan, the Afghan arm of the Islamic State, continues to carry out high-profile attacks that have killed hundreds of civilians."

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"The Rise and Fall of Soft Power"

Eric X. Li erläutert, warum das von Politikwissenschaftler Joseph Nye entwickelte Konzept der "weichen Macht" in den vergangenen Jahren an Bedeutung verloren hat. "Several things went wrong. For one, the products didn’t really suit the customers. From the “third wave” democracies of the 1970s and 1980s to the Eastern European states that rushed to join the EU and NATO after the Cold War to, most recently, the countries that weathered the Arab Spring, liberal democracy has had a hard time sticking. In many cases, moreover, it brought about rather catastrophic outcomes for the people involved. (...) Second, the United States, and by extension Europe, grew so confident in the potency of their soft power that they went into overdrive converting the rest of the world to their systems. (...) Third, the hubris of soft power led to the illusion that soft power could somehow exist on its own. But even Nye never said that. In reality, soft power is and always will be an extension of hard power. (...) The fourth problem is that soft power is actually very fragile and easily turned. (...) There is little doubt, in other words, that the era of soft power has given way to an era of hard power — and that is dangerous."

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"Botched CIA Communications System Helped Blow Cover of Chinese Agents"

Zach Dorfman schreibt, dass es den chinesischen Sicherheitsbehörden im Jahr 2010 gelungen sei, ein verzweigtes Spionagenetzwerk der CIA aufzudecken. Dutzende mutmaßliche US-Agenten seien dabei hingerichtet worden. Fast acht Jahre später sei nun die Ursache für diesen Fehlschlag der CIA bekannt: "(...) it appears that the agency botched the communication system it used to interact with its sources, according to five current and former intelligence officials. The CIA had imported the system from its Middle East operations, where the online environment was considerably less hazardous, and apparently underestimated China’s ability to penetrate it. 'The attitude was that we’ve got this, we’re untouchable,' said one of the officials who, like the others, declined to be named discussing sensitive information. The former official described the attitude of those in the agency who worked on China at the time as 'invincible.' Other factors played a role as well, including China’s alleged recruitment of former CIA officer Jerry Chun Shing Lee around the same time. Federal prosecutors indicted Lee earlier this year in connection with the affair. But the penetration of the communication system seems to account for the speed and accuracy with which Chinese authorities moved against the CIA’s China-based assets."

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"Trump Is the First President to Get Turkey Right"

Steven A. Cook lobt die neue Türkei-Strategie des US-Präsidenten als überfällige Kurskorrektur. Es sei offensichtlich, dass es aufgrund unterschiedlicher Interessen und Prioritäten keine echte "strategische Partnerschaft" zwischen beiden Ländern mehr gebe. "(...) the pressure that the Trump administration has brought to bear on Turkey is a welcome change from the passivity of the last two administrations, which preferred to overlook Turkey’s malign policies, either in an effort to try cajole Ankara to support the United States or because they did not want to risk a rift with a 'strategic partner.' Not only did this approach not work, but it also sent the message to Ankara that it was so valuable an ally that there would be no consequences for its actions. Applying pressure on Ankara may not work either, but the stakes are pretty low. Turkey’s importance to Washington has been waning for some time. (...) For the longest time, the legacy of the Cold War and the NATO alliance have framed the discussion of Turkey in Washington and Europe. Perhaps the controversy over Pastor Brunson and the way the Turkish government has responded to the lira crisis will be a clarifying moment, highlighting what should be clear by now: Turkey is no longer an ally or partner."

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"Pompeo Has to Learn Pyongyang’s Rules"

Duyeon Kim schreibt, dass die USA und Nordkorea sich immer noch nicht auf eine rhetorische Basis der in Singapur begonnenen Verhandlungen verständigt hätten. Die Schaffung dieser Grundlage müsse mit einer gemeinsamen Definition zentraler Begriffe beginnen. "Going forward, both sides need to first clarify definitions, words, and translations. A common definition of denuclearization needs to be agreed upon and repeatedly clarified. Linguistic translations also need to be clarified to prevent misinterpretations, misperceptions, and misguided policy formations. Pyongyang said Washington was 'robberlike,' not 'gangsterlike' as frequently mistranslated, for demanding 'unilateral denuclearization' without regard to its demands. Pyongyang’s translation of its own Korean-language statement misled the world into perceiving it would halt production of intercontinental ballistic missiles when it was actually touting plans to dismantle its Sohae missile engine test facility. Pyongyang says it no longer needs to test and will now mass produce nuclear weapons. A common lexicon is also crucial because the North claims a 'rocket' is a 'missile,' which was one fundamental reason the 2012 leap day deal crumbled. The list goes on."

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"Trump Wants to Destroy the World Order. So What?"

James Kirchick hält die Sorge vor einer Zerstörung der liberalen Weltordnung durch den US-Präsidenten für übertrieben, da Donald Trump trotz seiner Machtfülle immer noch in ein politisches System der "checks and balances" eingebunden sei. "(...) the fact that Trump wants to dismantle the liberal world order has obscured the more important question of whether he can. (...) Were Trump to exist in a different political system, one with fewer checks and balances and external limitations on a leader’s power, he would be far more dangerous. (...) Fortunately, Trump — however despotic his inclinations — is the democratically elected leader of the world’s oldest constitutional republic, and his attempts to undo the seven-decade-old liberal world order that republic built and sustained have thus far largely been frustrated."

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"Democrats Will Regret Becoming the Anti-Russia Party"

Micah Zenko warnt, dass die US-Demokraten die US-Außenpolitik mit ihrem antirussischen Kurs möglichweise längerfristig beeinträchtigen könnten. "When a political party increases its animus toward a foreign country — believing that this will enhance its own popularity — it introduces second-order effects that can manifest themselves years later. It creates a voting bloc of Americans who become socialized to hate a foreign government and, by extension, its citizens. (...) The singular foreign-policy focus on Russia also comes with opportunity costs, most notably with regards to China. (...) In conversations I’ve had with foreign government officials and diplomats since Trump won the election, the most commonly expressed concern has been about the lack of coordinated or sustained response to China’s accelerating efforts to shape and influence outcomes in regions where the United States claims to have vital national interests. (...) Foreign threat inflation emerges from many motivations — financial, professional, reputational, patriotic, and certainly political. The Democratic Party may inflate the threat posed by Russia and Vladimir Putin for short-term political gain, but it does so at the longer-term peril of the United States."

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"Spare a Thought for the Bundeswehr"

Elisabeth Braw vom Center for European Policy Analysis hält die Forderung nach einer deutlichen Erhöhung der deutschen Militärausgaben für berechtigt, wirft US-Präsident Trump aber vor, dies mit seiner Rhetorik erheblich zu erschweren und dabei eine unwissentliche "Allianz" mit der SPD einzugehen. "In the midst of this fraught domestic debate, Trump has unwittingly formed an alliance with Germany’s Social Democrats. By berating Merkel publicly and loudly demanding more money for the Bundeswehr, the U.S. president has strengthened the SPD and its misguided pacifist narrative, threatening to deprive the Bundeswehr’s 179,000 troops of the additional funding they desperately need despite Merkel’s best intentions. And that’s really what NATO’s spending benchmark is about: Making sure that member states’ armed forces are of maximum use to their countries and the alliance — not browbeating allies in the public spotlight to the point that they are politically hamstrung."

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"López Obrador Is a Pragmatist, Not an Ideologue"

Andrew Selee vom Wilson Center widerspricht Warnungen vor einer radikalen Wende in der mexikanischen Außenpolitik nach dem Sieg des neuen linksnationalistischen Präsidenten López Obrador. "There is no question that he has less enthusiasm for Mexico’s relationship with the United States than any of his recent predecessors, who all prioritized the neighbor to the north, and he is more skeptical of global entanglements generally. But López Obrador is ultimately more of a pragmatist than an ideologue when it comes to foreign policy. Indeed, he is likely to see foreign policy through the lens of what helps him advance his domestic agenda, and that means managing international affairs in ways that help improve social development and avoid economic shocks while also improving the country’s image abroad. In the end, this is likely to lead to greater continuity in Mexico’s foreign policy than most observers expect."

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"Russia and China See in Trump Era a Chance to Roll Back Human Rights Promotion at U.N."

China und Russland wollen den von Präsident Trump eingeleiteten Rückzug der USA aus internationalen Institutionen Colum Lynch zufolge nutzen, um UN-Programme zur Förderung von Menschenrechten zu kürzen. "The two countries are waging the campaign largely in closed-door budget negotiations, where they’re arguing for dramatic cuts in funding for the programs and the elimination of at least 170 jobs. Both Russia and China are motivated by a broad disdain for human rights promotion at the U.N. and a feeling that the world body should not be meddling in the domestic policies of member states. Their position on the issue is not new but previous U.S. administrations have usually managed to prevent China and Russia from undermining the work the U.N. does on human rights. Now, the two countries are benefiting from President Donald Trump’s impulse to withdraw from the world and withhold money from international organizations."

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"Get Ready for a Mexican Left Turn on Foreign Policy"

Der Linksnationalist López Obrador hat die Präsidentschaftswahlen in Mexiko gewonnen. Richard G. Miles beklagt in diesem Beitrag aus dem Vorfeld der Wahlen den Aufstieg "populistischer" Kräfte im Land und warnt dabei auch vor einer Wende in der mexikanischen Außenpolitik. "López Obrador is likely to name as his foreign minister 73-year-old Héctor Vasconcelos, a former diplomat, a classical pianist, and an international relations dinosaur. (...) Some of his views are a throwback to the 1930s, when Genaro Estrada, Mexico’s foreign minister, decided 'noninterventionism' was the guiding principle of its foreign policy. The doctrine could be summed up, in the words of Pope Francis, as, 'Who are we to judge?' What countries do inside their borders, so the argument runs, is their business. (...) This pivot to the past has drawn strong criticism from human rights advocates."

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"Alexis Tsipras Deserves the Nobel Peace Prize"

Edward P. Joseph schreibt, dass es dem griechischen Premierminister Alexis Tsipras durch die Einigung im Namensstreit mit Mazedonien nicht nur gelungen sei, einen regionalen Konflikt zu entspannen. Der Kompromiss könnte auch beim Umgang mit anderen internationalen Krisen wegweisend sein. "It creates a model for addressing identity clashes that drive conflict not only in the Balkans but across the globe. A stinging rebuke to Russia and to its populist cronies in Europe, the agreement injects a timely boost of confidence in the European Union and the entire Western project for the Balkans. The agreement still faces stiff opposition from nationalists in both countries who have assailed their respective leader as a traitor. To avoid that outcome, it’s urgent that Tsipras and Zaev gain not just support, but worldwide acclaim. (...) For antagonists around the world locked in identity disputes, the agreement between Macedonia and Greece is, if it survives political challenge, a model. The deal proves that seemingly intractable, zero-sum disputes over highly emotive issues can, with good will and good reason, be parsed."

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"The West Will Die So That Trump Can Win"

Benn Steil vom Council on Foreign Relations erwartet dagegen, dass die Außenpolitik von US-Präsident Trump neben der Nachkriegsordnung auch die Allianz der westlichen Länder beenden wird. Die Ära, in der die USA zugunsten ihrer Partner auf unmittelbaren wirtschaftlichen Nutzen verzichten, sei möglicherweise endgültig vorbei. "(...) it is not surprising that a U.S. administration no longer sees an overriding political need to restrain itself from pushing allies into making trade concessions. The Soviet Union no longer exists. To the extent that the administration’s detractors argue that its demands are unreasonable, or that the United States has bigger fish to fry — like maintaining solidarity in the face of Russian aggression — Trump’s response would presumably be twofold. First, a better deal is always better — 'reasonable' is for chumps. Second, if geopolitics stand in the way of the United States getting better trade deals, then geopolitics should give way. (...) Canada and the EU have a bigger problem than they realize. Their strategy at the moment, reflected in tempered responses to Trump, is to wait him out — on the assumption that he will be gone in two and a half years, or less, and that the United States will then go back to normal. But Trump may be the new normal — not in the sense that future presidents will be as crude and loose with the facts, but in the sense that they, reacting to a seismic shift in U.S. public sentiment, will no longer recognize the constraints of solidarity with fellow free-market democracies. Those days are, perhaps, as Bolton would say, 'no more.'"

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"This Is What North Korea Sanctions Relief Should Look Like"

Sollte der Gipfel in Singapur ein Erfolg werden, könnten die USA bald damit beginnen, die Sanktionen gegen Nordkorea zurückzufahren. Peter E. Harrell erläutert, wie Washington dabei vorgehen sollte. "The United States should be prepared, if necessary, to offer a small amount of interim sanctions relief if North Korea takes major early steps toward denuclearization. But the United States should insist that any interim relief granted to North Korea come only after North Korea takes significant initial steps. Trump should also insist that interim relief be sharply limited, reversible, and have a fixed end date. For example, the United States could agree to temporarily raise the limits on North Korean exports of coal or other mineral products for a finite period, such as six months, providing North Korea with a discrete benefit for taking initial nuclear steps. But such relief would automatically terminate if North Korea failed to continue implementing further steps toward completely dismantling its nuclear program. The United States should generally refuse to provide interim relief that would be difficult to reverse or that gives North Korea long-term benefits, such as agreeing to major new investments in the country."

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"It’s Time for a Coup in Venezuela"

Angesichts der innenpolitischen Krise in Venezuela fordert José R. Cárdenas, früherer Mitarbeiter der US-Regierung unter Präsident Bush, in unmissverständlichen Worten einen Militärputsch zum Sturz der Regierung von Präsident Maduro. "First, we should recognize that dialogue or diplomacy cannot bring a resolution to the Venezuela crisis. By now, it’s evident that the Maduro regime has no intention of negotiating itself out of power and only sees such opportunities as maneuvers to buy time. Second, we must admit that the only institution capable of instigating a real political transition in Venezuela is the Venezuelan military. (...) Of course, no one wants to see a regression to a Latin American Dark Age, in which military coups are the norm, at the expense of civilian rule and democracy. But it is important to note that identifying the Venezuelan military as the only logical change agent is not to advocate for a coup. The fact is, a coup has already taken place — perpetrated by Maduro and his Cuban advisors against the country’s constitution. Only nationalists in the military can restore a legitimate constitutional democracy."

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"Qatar Won the Saudi Blockade"

Hassan Hassan hält die vor einem Jahr begonnene Kampagne der Golfstaaten um Saudi-Arabien mit dem Ziel der diplomatischen Isolierung Katars für weitgehend gescheitert. "Perhaps the clearest indication of that reality was the series of remarks made by Trump with Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in April. Trump attacked Saudi Arabia, including in reference to terror funding, and acknowledged Qatar’s progress on the matter. Rather than convincing commentators and politicians in the West that Qatar had serious problems it needed to address, the effect has largely been the opposite. In large part, that’s because the quartet failed to anticipate Qatar would organize an effective public relations campaign of its own in the West. (...) But, while Qatar may be winning the crisis in the court of public opinion, the Saudi side sees itself to be winning in terms of changing facts on the ground. From the perspective of the Saudi camp, the Qatar crisis is enabling it to focus on redrawing the military and political map of the region as Doha is tied down by the continuing economic pressure. To them, Doha is currently less capable of playing a spoiler role in countries like Libya, Yemen, Iraq, and Egypt."

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"The World Wants You to Think Like a Realist"

Die Analyse der internationalen Sicherheitspolitik erscheint Stephen M. Walt heute nur noch aus realpolitischer Perspektive sinnvoll. Umso beklagenswerter sei es, dass diese Denkrichtung im amerikanischen Mainstream nach wie vor an den Rand gedrängt werde. "Instead of relying on realism, both Republicans and Democrats tend to view foreign policy through the lens of liberal idealism. Rather than see world politics as an arena where security is scarce and major powers are forced to contend whether they wish to or not, America’s foreign-policy mavens are quick to divide the world into virtuous allies (usually democracies) and evil adversaries (always some sort of dictatorship) and to assume that when things go badly, it is because a wicked foreign leader (Saddam Hussein, Ali Khamenei, Vladimir Putin, Muammar al-Qaddafi, etc.) is greedy, aggressive, or irrational. When friendly states object to something the (virtuous) United States is doing, U.S. leaders tend to assume that critics just don’t understand their noble aims or are jealous of America’s success. (...) realism still helps us understand how Trump can get away with all this meshugas: The United States is still so powerful and secure that it can do a lot of dumb things and suffer only modest losses. More importantly, realism remains an extremely useful guide to a lot of things that have happened in the recent past or that are happening today. And as Trump is proving weekly, leaders who ignore these insights inevitably make lots of dumb mistakes."

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Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

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Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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