US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

The Atlantic


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"If Terrorists Launch a Major Cyberattack, We Won’t See It Coming"

Kathy Gilsinan schreibt, dass die ersten Warnungen vor einem verheerenden terroristischen Cyberangriff in den USA vor 15 Jahren laut geworden sind. Mittlerweile fragen sich demnach auch einige Experten, warum dieser Notfall bisher nicht eingetreten sei. "(...) a generation of tech-savvy jihadists has exploited the internet to attract recruits, share bomb-making expertise, and incite violence. Yet they haven’t managed to pull off the devastating cyberattacks that experts have long feared. With just days left before Americans go to the polls for midterm elections, it is worth considering: Why not? 'I’m as puzzled as you are,' said Michael Hayden, who served as CIA director from 2004 to 2008. 'These folks are not cyberdumb.' (...) Three main barriers are likely preventing this. For one, cyberattacks can lack the kind of drama and immediate physical carnage that terrorists seek. Identifying the specific perpetrator of a cyberattack can also be difficult, meaning terrorists might have trouble reaping the propaganda benefits of clear attribution. Finally, and most simply, it’s possible that they just can’t pull it off."

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"Why the Mail Bomber Wasn’t Charged With Terrorism"

Kathy Gilsinan erläutert, warum der festgenommene Verdächtige, dem der Versand von Paketbomben an mehrere Trump-Gegner vorgeworfen wird, nicht als "Terrorist" angeklagt worden ist. "In the United States, the most frequently used terrorism-related charge, by far, is for providing 'material support' to a foreign terrorist organization. Support can mean anything from offering money or advice to showing up in person to help a group that is on the State Department’s designated list of terrorist organizations. (...) For domestic actors without such connections, the law — and the intelligence community’s investigative powers — runs up against First Amendment and other civil-liberties protections. The U.S. government does not formally designate domestic terrorist organizations. So it may not be illegal to give money to a domestic extremist group like Aryan Nations, even if some members commit violence. (...) In effect, whether a suspect gets formal 'terrorism' charges or not, the justice system still allows for harsh punishment. Sessions noted that if convicted, Sayoc could face up to 50 years in prison. But the political discussion remains acute and divisive."

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"Khashoggi’s Murder Heralds a New Era of Impunity"

Die Reaktionen vieler Regierungen auf die Ermordung des Journalisten Jamal Khashoggi sind nach Ansicht von Uri Friedman Ausdruck einer "hässlichen Geopolitik". "In a world in which more nationalistic, narcissistic countries are locked in competition, human rights and the rule of law be damned, it is quite possible that those responsible for the journalist’s death will escape serious consequences — that Khashoggi will be the victim not just of his executioners, but also of a more cutthroat, coldhearted world. There’s been a lot of talk by U.S., European, Turkish, and Saudi officials about 'accountability' in recent days but, thus far, comparatively little holding to account of those who orchestrated the hit at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul this month. (...) For their part, Britain, France, and Germany have demanded that the Saudi government be more forthcoming about Khashoggi’s killing and taken to task for it. But while Berlin has suspended future arms sales to the kingdom, Paris and London — which send substantially more military equipment to the Saudis than Germany does — have yet to go that far."

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"The Caravan Is a Challenge to the Integrity of U.S. Borders"

In den USA gibt es derzeit eine erhitzte Debatte über den Umgang mit dem Marsch tausender Migranten aus Mittelamerika in Richtung der Vereinigten Staaten. David Frum erläutert die Argumente beider Seiten und meint, dass die USA trotz manch fragwürdiger Äußerungen des US-Präsidenten ihre Grenzen nicht einfach unkontrolliert öffnen dürfen, da sonst politische Folgen wie bei der Flüchtlingskrise in Europa drohen. "The theory behind the caravans — this latest, and its smaller predecessors over the past 15 years — is that Central Americans have valid asylum claims in the United States because of the pervasive underemployment and gang-violence problems in their countries. If that claim is true, that is a claim shared not only among the thousands in the current caravan, but the millions back home. A 2013 Pew survey found that 58 percent of Salvadorans would move to the United States if they could. The seven countries of Central America together have a population of some 45 million, or about the same as Mexico’s back in 1970, when the mass migration from that nation began. Things happen much faster in the 2010s than they did in the 1970s. When Germany temporarily suspended its border rules in August 2015, almost a million migrants surged into the country within the next four months. That surge continued into 2016. Its political effects linger still: It was crucial to the British vote to quit the European Union, to the election of a reactionary government in Poland, to the political revival of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, and to the collapse of center-left parties in France, Italy, Sweden, and Germany."

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"The Irony of Turkey's Crusade for a Missing Journalist"

Die kalkulierte Reaktion der Türkei auf das Verschwinden des saudi-arabischen Journalisten Jamal Khashoggi kann nach Ansicht von Krishnadev Calamur aus zwei Perspektiven erklärt werden: "(...) the countries in the region see Erdogan, along with Qatar, as the main supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood. (...) But Khashoggi’s disappearance and, if Turkish leaks are to be believed, death at the hands of a Saudi death squad inside the consulate is a chilling development. 'This must have sent shivers down the spines of dissidents from Egypt and from Gulf countries in Turkey because it [suggests] that they're not really safe in Turkey,' [Soner Cagaptay, who is director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute,] said. 'And that's why I think Erdogan has to find a way that whatever path the Saudis take to dig out of this, it becomes very clear that it won't happen again, it won't be repeated because that will hugely undermine Erdogan's design to maintain a lever against Egypt and GCC-bloc countries through supporting the opposition, predominantly by hosting Muslim Brotherhood dissidents.' (...) Erdogan’s (...) approach to Saudi Arabia is different. The Turkish president is a devout conservative Sunni Muslim and respects Saudi King Salman as the custodian of Islam’s two holy mosques. Revelations about the Khashoggi case are marked not only by their anonymity, but also by the fact that no senior Turkish officials has gone on the record about the case, and Erdogan himself has mostly been quiet, perhaps hoping that a neat solution emerges that allows everyone to save face."

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"Trump’s Counterterrorism Strategy Is a Relief"

US-Präsident Trump hat 21 Monate nach seinem Wahlsieg eine Nationale Strategie zur Terrorismusbekämpfung vorgelegt. Joshua Geltzer, der in der Obama-Regierung als beratender Sicherheitsexperte tätig war, zeigt sich "erleichtert", da er in dem Papier keinen echten Richtungswechsel erkennt. "What we have, then, is a counterterrorism strategy that seems to shrug at some of Trump’s political priorities while embracing the institutional memory and best practices built up under his predecessors. That is, the document displays the wisdom of the counterterrorism professionals who, despite the White House’s rhetorical excesses, remain focused on protecting Americans at home and abroad. (...) For that very reason, the new strategy raises the same big question raised by Trump’s 2017 National Security Strategy: Is it actually the president’s strategy? Recall that that document felt, by and large, like one that other presidents could have issued, with a focus on rising great-power rivals, an acknowledgment of the continued threat posed by terrorism, and a warning about mounting cyber-related dangers. It’s as if the speech that Trump gave introducing the strategy was written by someone else entirely."

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"The United States Could End the War in Yemen If It Wanted To"

Mohamad Bazzi meint, dass die US-Regierung schnell zur Beendigung des Krieges in Jemen beitragen könnte, wenn sie stärkeren Druck auf ihre Verbündeten in Saudi-Arabien und den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten ausüben würde. "By accepting the coalition’s cosmetic attempts to minimize civilian casualties, the Trump administration is signaling to Saudi and Emirati leaders its apparent belief that a clear military victory in Yemen remains possible. And as long as the coalition believes it can crush the Houthis, there’s little incentive for it to negotiate. (...) After the Trump administration’s endorsement this month, the Saudi-UAE alliance has even less incentive to prevent civilian casualties and new humanitarian disasters. Saudi Arabia and its allies are more likely to accept a peace process if it is clear that the United States won’t support an open-ended war in Yemen and won’t provide the military assistance required to keep the war apparatus going. But Trump has shown little sign of pressuring his Saudi and Emirati allies, least of all over Yemen."

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"Latin America Gets Its Own Migrant Crisis"

Die innenpolitische Krise in Venezuela habe eine Flüchtlingswelle ausgelöst, die in Lateinamerika ähnliche politische Folgen wie in Europa haben könnte, schreibt Krishnadev Calamur. "If the European migrant crisis is any indication, Venezuela’s neighbors are unlikely to remain welcoming for long. European nations like Germany and Sweden, which opened their arms to migrants in the early days of the crisis, quickly soured on the new arrivals, with dramatic political consequences. There’s also the fact that Latin-American nations are far poorer than those in the European Union — something that’s sure to become a destabilizing political issue for a place like Colombia, Santos, the Colombian ambassador, said. Citing sympathetic coverage in Colombia of the migrant crisis, Bury said that while Colombia is more accepting of newcomers than other places, 'the situation [with Venezuelans] is a bit newer. … But when we’re talking about almost 2 million people coming into the country, there will be a limit for sure.'"

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"Germany’s Summer of Identity Crisis"

Emily Schultheis betrachtet die aktuelle deutsche Debatte über den entlassenen Verfassungsschutz-Chef Hans-Georg Maaßen aus amerikanischer Perspektive als Ausdruck einer tiefergehenden "Identitätskrise". "The Maassen story seemed to weave together a number of questions Germany is wrestling with — the rise of the far right, the debate over disinformation and reality, and the future of immigration policy. Though some of these questions have simmered beneath the surface since the end of World War II, recent debates over German identity, society, and history have thrown the country into something of an existential crisis: What does it mean to be German? And what is Germany’s relationship to its own dark history?"

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"South Korea May Have Just Helped Break a Nuclear Impasse"

Der südkoreanische Präsident habe dem stockenden Verhandlungsprozess zwischen Nordkorea und den USA durch sein Gipfeltreffen mit Kim Jong-un einen wichtigen Impuls gegeben, schreibt Uri Friedman. "As the arms-control expert Tom Collina has observed, we’ve reached the point in nuclear negotiations where it’s as if North Korea has offered to sell the United States a house, but critical details like the price and the closing date — and even the extent to which North Korea is still upgrading the home — remain unclear. In Pyongyang this week, Moon Jae In attempted to reaffirm that a house is indeed coming on the market and to ferret out more information on its dimensions and the process for making a down payment — to make as clear as possible, in other words, that the house is something more than a dream."

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"America Needs an Entirely New Foreign Policy for the Trump Age"

Peter Beinart ist aufgefallen, dass die US-Demokraten Präsident Trump in der Außenpolitik regelmäßig von rechts attackieren. Dies sei problematisch, da sich die Parteispitze damit von ihrer Basis und deren berechtigten Zweifeln an der interventionistischen US-Politik abwende. "Trump’s election — which followed anti-interventionist rebellions by Ross Perot, Jerry Brown, Pat Buchanan, Ralph Nader, Ron Paul, and Bernie Sanders — was a disastrous response to a legitimate and enduring discontent. The choice facing Democrats in the Trump era is whether to join a hawkish alliance that aims to suppress that discontent or whether to channel it in a progressive direction. Hawks will denounce any foreign policy that abandons unipolarity as defeatist, a harbinger of national decline. But the progressive activists remaking the Democratic Party suspect, with good reason, that the pursuit of global dominance has been not an alternative to national decline but one of its causes. If in the coming years those activists articulate an agenda for shielding the republic — in which the U.S. protects the dignity and freedoms of its people, grants other powerful nations deference near their borders, and works with them to the solve the common problems that plague humanity — they will not be retreating from America’s best foreign policy traditions. They will be ushering in their long overdue return."

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"September 11 Spawned Nearly a Generation of U.S. War in Afghanistan"

Krishnadev Calamur lässt in seinem Zwischenfazit des 17 Jahre andauernden Kriegs der USA in Afghanistan auch Befürworter eines weitergehenden amerikanischen Engagements zu Wort kommen. "Supporters of the continued U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan have cited various reasons for it: that it remains in the national interest; that it is vital to prevent the resurgence of international terrorism; and that it gives the U.S. a geopolitical foothold in the region. Each of those arguments has its own counterargument (...). But Karl Eikenberry, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant general who was U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan from 2009 to 2011, and commander of U.S. forces there before that, said there is also a moral argument about why the U.S. should remain. 'That’s the one that should be debated the most. For 17 years, we’ve been telling the Afghan people — women, minority groups, and youth — that America will stay in the fight until there is a sustainable peace,' he told me. 'Because of the fiscal and geopolitical opportunity costs, it is not in our national interest to remain, and we can reasonably tell ourselves that we’ve done enough. But when we do pull out, we’ll leave behind unfulfilled promises and human tragedy for which we will be culpable.'"

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"Why Technology Favors Tyranny"

Yuval Noah Harari, Historiker und Philosoph an der Hebrew University of Jerusalem, warnt, dass die fortschreitende Entwicklung von künstlicher Intelligenz und anderer umwälzender Technologien die Macht noch stärker in den Händen einer kleinen Elite konzentrieren und die Grundlagen der Demokratie gefährden könnte. Die Bevölkerung in westlichen Ländern spüre diesen Trend bereits. "In 2018 the common person feels increasingly irrelevant. Lots of mysterious terms are bandied about excitedly in ted Talks, at government think tanks, and at high-tech conferences — globalization, blockchain, genetic engineering, AI, machine learning — and common people, both men and women, may well suspect that none of these terms is about them. In the 20th century, the masses revolted against exploitation and sought to translate their vital role in the economy into political power. Now the masses fear irrelevance, and they are frantic to use their remaining political power before it is too late. Brexit and the rise of Donald Trump may therefore demonstrate a trajectory opposite to that of traditional socialist revolutions."

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"Inside the Dispute Derailing Nuclear Talks With North Korea"

Uri Friedman hat mit einem südkoreanischen Experten über die Gründe des gegenwärtigen Stockens der Verhandlungen über die nordkoreanische Denuklearisierung gesprochen. Als größtes Hindernis gilt demnach der Streit um eine formale Beendigung des Koreakriegs. "'The current stalemate comes from the difference between North Korea and the U.S. on which comes first': the belligerents from the Korean War proclaiming the conflict over, or North Korea disclosing the components of its nuclear-weapons program and permitting international inspectors to access them, said Moon Chung In, a special adviser to President Moon Jae In for foreign affairs and national security. (...) The crux of the standoff is this: The United States is insisting that North Korea prove its 'sincerity' about denuclearizing by offering a full accounting of its nuclear and missile program, accepting international inspections, and perhaps giving up a certain portion of its nuclear warheads early in negotiations, Moon told me. But North Korea insists progress on peace should come first, as it does in the numbered joint statement Trump and Kim signed in Singapore. The 'North Koreans are saying, 'No, we agreed on a new relationship. And a declaration to end the war in Korea will be the most important token of [the] new relationship,'' said Moon."

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"It’s Time to Stop Talking About Terrorists As If They’re Diabolical Geniuses"

Angesichts neuer Berichte über den angeblichen Tod des Al-Qaida-Bombenbauers Ibrahim al-Asiri meint Gregory D. Johnsen, dass es an der Zeit sei, die Bedeutung einzelner Terroristen nicht länger maßlos zu überschätzen. "(...) Asiri is not unique. He is simply the name we know. Indeed, after residing in Yemen for more than a decade, spending much of that time on the run from U.S. drones, it is almost certain that he has trained multiple aspiring bombmakers to eventually replace him. That is the problem with personalizing the war against groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State: We inflate our enemies into larger-than-life villains who reflect our fears rather than their own capabilities. We did it with Osama bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki, and now we are doing it with Ibrahim al-Asiri. By talking about them as masterminds with irreplaceable skillsets, the United States projects the mistaken impression that if they could only be killed, the terrorist threat would be greatly reduced. Bin Laden and Awlaki are dead. Yet al-Qaeda lives on."

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"Trump Goes From Threatening Iran to Threatening the World"

Bei seiner Präsentation der neuen Sanktionen gegen den Iran habe US-Präsident Trump praktisch der ganzen Welt gedroht, stellt Krishnadev Calamur fest. Damit sei nahezu sichergestellt, dass die Sanktionen nicht den gewünschten Effekt haben werden. "Barack Obama’s administration succeeded in putting together coordinated international sanctions on Iran. Those restrictions sunk Iran into a recession and ultimately drove it to negotiations with the international community that resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the Iran deal is formally known. Trump’s sanctions, strong though they are, are unlikely to have the same impact, primarily because they don’t have the same kind of international cooperation."

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"The Two Words That Made Saudi Arabia Furious at Canada"

Sigal Samuel erläutert, warum Saudi-Arabien auf die Forderung der kanadischen Außenministerin nach der Freilassung inhaftierter Aktivistinnen so gereizt reagiert hat. Nach Ansicht von Ali Shihabi, Gründer der Arabia Foundation, hätten beide Seiten die diplomatische Krise aus innenpolitischen Gründen provoziert. "[Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman] sees himself as managing an unprecedented and delicate reform process and doesn’t want outside criticism making it more difficult, let alone from allies who are beneficiaries of Saudi business, so he is very upset at the Canadians,' Ali Shihabi, the founder of the Arabia Foundation, wrote to me in an email. But 'both sides are playing politics here,' added Shihabi, a Saudi national who is close to the government. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has upheld a $15-billion arms deal to Saudi Arabia that was concluded by his conservative predecessor in 2014, yet now he 'wants to defend himself from criticism of that decision by grandstanding and posturing on women’s rights.'"

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"America Is Addicted to Sanctions. Time for an Intervention."

Neil Bhatiya und Edoardo Saravalle werfen der US-Regierung vor, das außenpolitische Werkzeug der Sanktionen viel zu häufig einzusetzen. Der Fall Iran zeige, dass dies nicht nur zunehmend ineffektiv sei, sondern auch die Beziehungen zu den Verbündeten gefährde. "When the Trump administration left the Iran deal, the EU responded by updating a law that prohibited European companies from complying with certain U.S. sanctions. As a result, the United States did more than lose a helpful partner — it set back its own program. (...) Another major problem with the current use of sanctions: It treats them as an end in and of themselves, rather than as a means to an end. Sanctions are meant to induce adversaries to come to the negotiating table; when they achieve their goals, they should end. Attacking each and every foreign-policy problem with sanctions will make them more rigid and harder to lift. (...) Sanctions work best as narrowly targeted measures tied to clear demands — an approach most likely to lead to practical deals. Turkey offers a new test for Washington’s sanctions discipline. So far, the administration has outlined a very specific goal: Brunson’s freedom. Can it stick to that approach and lift the sanctions if they succeed? Or will it succumb to the momentum created by sanctions and tack on new goals, like countering President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s growing authoritarianism?"

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"Trump, Iran, and the Dangers of Presidential Bluffing"

Uri Friedman schreibt nach den offenen Twitter-Drohungen des US-Präsidenten gegen den Iran, dass Donald Trump es mit diesen Aktionen bisher verstanden habe, als völlig unberechenbar zu erscheinen. Im Fall Nordkorea habe diese Strategie vorerst zum Erfolg geführt, sie bleibe allerdings hochgefährlich. "The North Korean case cannot predict what will happen in the Iranian case. But in a narrow sense it does prove that Trump is perfectly willing to issue harsh threats without following through. And, given the trajectory of the U.S.-North Korea relationship over the past year, that he’s perfectly willing to change course entirely. A year from now, Trump could be holding a summit with Ayatollah Khamenei, chuckling about that time he threatened him on Twitter with unprecedented destruction. Stranger things have happened in the Trump presidency. Yet there’s also the possibility that the Iranians, believing Trump to be a bluffer, misinterpret which moves will actually prompt a U.S. military response from an American president surrounded by Iran hawks, raising the chances of war. Or perhaps this new round of taunts simply serves to further drain the American presidency of credibility, and the gravity of the consequences won’t be clear for years to come."

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"The Anti-Trump Hysteria Isn’t Helping"

Danielle Pletka vom American Enterprise Institute teilt die weithin geäußerte Kritik am Auftritt von US-Präsident Trump in Helsinki, meint aber auch, dass dies letztlich nur Trumps Rhetorik betreffe. "(...) it’s Trump’s words that are terrible. His policies are, in the main, not. The United States has crushed Russia beneath escalating sanctions, pulled out of the dreadful Iran deal, armed the Ukrainian opposition to Putin, stood up to China’s theft of American intellectual property, actually bombed Syrian chemical-weapons sites, and increased defense spending. Sure, there’s plenty to dislike in Trump’s foreign policy, including his trade wars, his dismissal of allies, his toying with nato, and his Obama-esque desire to skip out of Syria. But his stupid rhetoric masks a mostly normal, if not always sensible or desirable, foreign policy. And Trump’s national-security strategy is at least coherent when compared with the incoherent global retreat embraced by the last administration."

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"Canada Has Its Own Ways of Keeping Out Unwanted Immigrants"

Die Einwanderungspolitik der US-Regierung ist derzeit nicht nur in den USA hoch umstritten. Tony Keller schreibt, dass Kanada die Immigration sehr viel subtiler, aber oft kaum weniger strikt reguliere. Die weitgehende Verhinderung illegaler Migration sei die Basis für die breite Unterstützung der kanadischen Bevölkerung für die legale Einwanderung. "Canada’s immigration success thus far is not a liberal story or a conservative story — it’s both. If the country’s image appears to be entirely liberal, that’s largely because its methods of controlling immigration are simply quieter, subtler, and less obvious than America’s. It’s that commitment to policing immigration that has, paradoxically, sustained such high levels of support. (...) For one thing, the movement of people into the country has generally been so law-abiding and orderly as to be uncontroversial and barely newsworthy. Canada, unlike the U.S., is a country where nearly all arrivals come in through the front door, in the open, during daylight hours. (...) As for illegal and irregular immigration, Canadian governments from both ends of the political spectrum have worked — quietly — to ensure there is as little of it as possible. The unspoken underpinning of Canada’s otherwise welcoming immigration policy is a giant and assiduously maintained border wall."

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"NATO Doesn’t Need More Defense Spending"

US-Präsident Trump hat die anderen NATO-Länder zwischenzeitlich aufgefordert, ihre Verteidigungsausgaben nicht nur auf zwei, sondern auf vier Prozent ihrer Wirtschaftsleistung zu erhöhen. Peter Beinart hält diese Denkweise, die grundsätzlich selbst von vielen Kritikern Trumps geteilt werde, für falsch, da der größten Bedrohung der europäischen Sicherheit nicht militärisch begegnet werden könne. "The far larger threat to Europe is ideological. It’s rising authoritarianism. Poland is on track to meet the 2-percent threshold even as it eviscerates the independence of its Supreme Court. Russia exacerbates that ideological threat by supporting illiberal political parties, but the real driver of European authoritarian impulses is mass migration. (...) nato runs small anti-people-smuggling initiatives in the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas. But the migration crisis can’t be solved with planes and tanks. Europe can best respond to it by increasing foreign aid and intensifying diplomatic efforts so states on its periphery don’t collapse, and, when migrants do make it to Europe’s shores, by investing in programs that help them better integrate. (...) What American liberals should be saying is not that Germany’s defense spending is too low but that America’s is too high. Plenty of Democratic voters, after all, desperately want the kind of welfare state that Germans already have."

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"The West Will Survive Trump"

Angesichts vieler Berichte über die Krise der NATO erinnern Richard Fontaine und Vance Serchuk daran, dass das Militärbündnis in seiner Geschichte bereits größere Herausforderungen überstanden hat. "Could this time prove different? Perhaps. But there are good reasons to believe that this too shall pass. At the very least, it’s useful to situate the current tempest within the context of past storms that have swept across the Atlantic. The point of reviewing this history isn’t to diminish the seriousness of the present rift or to encourage complacency. But it does offer an important corrective to the doom and despondency about the future of the West — increasingly heard among foreign-policy thinkers on both sides of the Atlantic — as well as the counterproductive amnesia that overlooks just how much we’ve already gotten through together."

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"South Korea’s Ambassador Has a Message for All the North Korea Skeptics"

Der südkoreanische Botschafter in Washington, Cho Yoon Je, hat Uri Friedman gegenüber den im Westen zuletzt überwiegend skeptischen Einschätzungen der Verhandlungen zwischen den USA und Nordkorea widersprochen. Der Prozess habe gerade erst begonnen und werde noch Zeit brauchen. "'We need to be more patient,' said Cho, in his first interview since Kim Jong Un’s meetings with the South Korean president in April and the American president a few weeks ago. (...) This assessment of Trump’s North Korea policy is not necessarily typical in Washington, D.C., where many have chided the U.S. president for granting Kim Jong Un the stature of a summit, and proclaiming the meeting a sweeping success while extracting only vague commitments from Kim. But Cho, in an indication of how top South Korean officials are processing the latest developments, evaluates the situation differently. What’s important in his view isn’t only the technical questions of how and when North Korea’s 'denuclearization' takes place, but also the political project of overhauling North Korea’s relations with South Korea and the United States. Looked at through that prism, the summit itself was a concrete achievement."

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"No One Knows What Kim Jong Un Promised Trump"

Angesichts der recht vagen Abschlusserklärung des Gipfeltreffens von Singapur sei völlig unklar, ob die jüngsten Aktivitäten in nordkoreanischen Atomanlagen einen Bruch der Vereinbarungen zwischen Donald Trump und Kim Jong-un darstellen, schreibt Krishnadev Calamur. "Trump and Kim first met one-on-one, with their translators, and then met with their top aides. No one else really knows what denuclearization commitments were made in that room, beyond the public joint statement in which North Korea 'to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.' If it was further specified in conversation how and when exactly this 'work' would take place, and what exactly it would mean to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula in contrast to just the North giving up its nukes, that is not currently public. It’s possible that the joint communique the two sides signed meant different things to each side."

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"How Trump Could Sell Out Syria to Putin"

Frederic C. Hof vom Atlantic Council würde eine Einigung der USA mit Russland im Syrienkonflikt als "Ausverkauf" des Landes betrachten. "One could imagine Putin offering Assad a deal designed to restore him as the ruler of all of Syria. First, he would need to assure Trump during their upcoming meeting that Assad’s offensive in the southwest will soon conclude, and that he would send in Russian forces to enforce a de-escalation zone. In return, he would ask Trump to quickly move U.S. forces out of Syria, allowing him to declare victory. Once the Americans had put Syria in their rear-view mirror, Putin might offer Assad and the Iranians the right to occupy oil-rich eastern Syria, with an assurance that Russian and Syrian forces will gradually reclaim the southwest, piece by piece. President Trump might be tempted to take such a deal — a temptation worth resisting. A nearly four-year effort against Islamist extremism would be wasted, as undisciplined Iranian-led militiamen and rapacious regime gunmen occupy an area rich in petroleum and agricultural resources."

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"The Trump-Putin Summit: What the Europeans Fear"

Die Europäer blicken dem geplanten Gipfeltreffen zwischen Donald Trump und Wladimir Putin mit einiger Sorge entgegen, schreibt Yasmeen Serhan. "It’s not the fact of the Putin meeting that has European leaders worried — they themselves meet with Putin on a regular basis. Nor is it the timing, which was anticipated given the president’s previous commitments on the continent. The problem is that they cannot anticipate what might come from the meeting. After all, Trump keeps displaying his predilection for keeping even the Europeans off-balance. (...) It’s this kind of unpredictability Europeans fear Trump will bring to Helsinki — perhaps to their peril. 'Europeans in general are apprehensive not because they fear an American president dealing with Russia in general, but they fear this particular president dealing with Russia when they don’t know ... his strategic framework,' Daniel Fried, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former U.S. ambassador to Poland, told me."

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"The Mystery at the Heart of North Korea Talks"

Ein Kernproblem der kommenden Verhandlungen zwischen den USA und Nordkorea ist nach Ansicht vieler Experten das unterschiedliche Verständnis von zentralen Begriffen wie der "Denuklearisierung". Uri Friedman, der seit einiger Zeit aus Südkorea berichtet, hat sich mit einem wichtigen Berater des südkoreanischen Präsidenten unterhalten, der einen Plan zur Überwindung des Problems entwickelt hat. "The North Koreans want proof of denuclearization in South Korea in exchange for denuclearization in North Korea, according to Moon, and that’s not all: They have said they want no more deployment of American nuclear-capable vessels and aircraft during training exercises with South Korean forces, a non-aggression pledge from the U.S., and eventually a normal diplomatic relationship with America. 'Here comes my own idea,' added Moon. (Moon is also a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul and often speaks in that unofficial capacity.) 'North and South Korea and other concerned parties should sign a treaty that declares a nuclear-weapon-free zone on the Korean peninsula,' prohibiting nuclear weapons, facilities, and materials in both North and South Korea. (...) Under a UN-backed nuclear-weapon-free zone on the Korean peninsula, Moon said, 'North Korea will not have nuclear weapons, [and] South Korea will not be under [the] American nuclear umbrella.'"

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"Why Can’t Democrats Give Trump Credit on North Korea?"

Peter Beinart kritisiert, dass die Kritiker des US-Präsidenten den Wert des Nordkorea-Gipfels in Singapur nicht anerkennen. Die Demokraten wollen es demnach vor allem den Republikanern "heimzahlen", da diese das Iran-Abkommen Barack Obamas ebenso heftig angegriffen haben. "(...) the Democrats are wrong. They’re not wrong that Trump proved a weaker, dumber negotiator than Obama. They’re wrong to suggest that makes the Singapore summit a failure. In their desire to prove themselves savvy and tough, Democrats are proving myopic. And they’re making themselves de facto allies of ultra-hawks like John Bolton, who may try to derail the Trump-Kim peace process, and revive the threat of war."

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"The French President Has Described America Like a Rogue State"

Mit seinem Auftritt auf dem G7-Gipfel hat US-Präsident Trump Uri Friedman zufolge auch Frankreichs Präsident Macron vor den Kopf gestoßen, der zuvor versucht habe, Trump auch auf persönlicher Ebene näher zu kommen. "At first he attempted to become Trump’s best friend. But now he approaches the U.S. president with a tone that sounds almost injured. And on Thursday he made perhaps his starkest statement yet regarding his concerns about where Trump’s policies could lead the United States and the rest of the world. (...) The leader of America’s oldest ally also stated that the U.S. needed to be persuaded to remain in the 'community of nations' — to stay not in the narrow confines of the Paris accord or the Iran deal or some free-trade agreement with the European Union, not even in the broader transatlantic alliance, but in the broadest dimension of the civilized world. The implication was that, left to his own devices, the American president might go rogue and defy both the values that bind his country with its allies and the international laws and norms that the United States, France, and other partners helped construct out of the ashes of World War II. But in the effort to keep America in line, Macron said, according to his own translation of the remarks, 'we must never sacrifice our interests or values.'"

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Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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