US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

The Atlantic


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"The Meaning of Robert Mugabe's Stunning Non-Resignation"

Trotz des ausbleibenden freiwilligen Rücktritts Robert Mugabes sind Todd Moss und Jeffrey Smith der Ansicht, dass der politische Sturz des Präsidenten von Simbabwe nur noch eine Frage der Zeit sei. Eine wirklich demokratische Zukunft werde das Land zunächst wohl trotzdem nicht haben. "Now that Mugabe is likely headed for retirement, despite his last-ditch efforts to hang on, Zimbabweans must reckon with difficult choices that will decide their fate. Will their country remain an autocracy, run primarily by the same old men who will simply trade in their military fatigues for expensive designer suits? Or can the country put itself on a path toward inclusive democracy? The immediate issue of concern is what shape the political transition takes. Unfortunately, the most likely outcome is a military junta that retains only a fig leaf of legitimacy." Weiter...


"What It Takes To Make Saudi Islam 'Moderate'"

Sigal Samuel erläutert, warum einige Experten die Ankündigung Saudi-Arabiens zur künftigen Förderung einer moderaten Interpretation des Islams skeptisch beurteilen. "If Saudi Arabia tackles the problem only superficially, there’s no reason to expect it will effect deep change. Worse, it could backfire. (...) Saudi Arabia has so successfully promoted a particular version of Islam that if it tries to change that now, it risks empowering fringe voices who will claim to be sticking up for the old version. (...) If a new hadith center can’t really disentangle Islam in Saudi Arabia from extremist Salafism, what can get the job done? (...) For his part, [H.A. Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a scholar of religion and politics,] says the real solution lies in deep intellectual and theological reform. 'It would require a recognition that the purist Salafi heritage that comes from Ibn Abd al-Wahhab—which is the underpinning of the Saudi religious establishment—is not normative, that it’s a minority approach within the Sunni universe,' he argued." Weiter...


"'Then What Happens?': Congress Questions the President's Authority to Wage Nuclear War"

Im US-Kongress sei am Dienstag in einer Anhörung zum ersten Mal seit 41 Jahren untersucht worden, auf welche Weise die US-Regierung den Einsatz von Atomwaffen anordnen würde, berichtet Uri Friedman. Dabei habe sich bestätigt, dass der Autorität des US-Präsidenten in dieser Frage kaum Grenzen gesetzt sind. "It was a raw, existential exercise in something that has become routine in Washington since Donald Trump’s election: unearthing and scrutinizing long-buried assumptions about U.S. foreign policy. 'Donald Trump can launch nuclear codes just as easily as he can use his Twitter account,' marveled the Massachusetts Democrat Ed Markey (...). The witnesses emphasized that this authority doesn’t mean the president pushes a button or calls up one commander and the military automatically follows the order. Peter Feaver, a political scientist at Duke University, distinguished between 'scenarios where the military wake up the president versus scenarios where the president is waking up the military.' (...) But when the president 'wakes up the military,' perhaps 'in an extreme funk saying 'I’m angry and I want something done' … he requires the cooperation of a lot of people who would be asking' a lot of questions about the context and justification for the strike, which would 'slow down' the process, Feaver said." Weiter...


"The Future of Kenya's Democracy Is Hanging in the Balance"

Neha Wadekar schreibt angesichts der politischen Unruhen in Kenia, dass der enge Verbündete der USA vom demokratischen Pfad abweichen könnte. "As the cornerstone of East African democracy, Kenya is an important economic and political force in the region and a critical U.S. ally in the fight against terrorism. But worrying signs, including a crackdown on press and civil society, police killings committed seemingly with impunity, and threats and attacks on election officials and judges, suggest that Kenya may be veering off its democratic path." Weiter...


"How the War in Yemen Explains the Future of Saudi Arabia"

Der saudi-arabische Kronprinz Mohammed bin Salman werde Jemen auch künftig als Bühne für die Konfrontation mit dem Iran nutzen, erwartet Simon Henderson. "For the 32-year-old MbS, dealing with Iran is as important as transforming the Saudi economy and, under the cover of an anti-corruption campaign, sorting out royal rivalries. (...) Instead of viewing Yemen as a poor peripheral country of little importance, the princes of the House of Saud seem to see it as a dagger aimed at their heart — MbS’s grandfather Ibn Saud supposedly warned of the threat of Yemen on his death bed. As long as the regional proxy war with Iran continues, Yemen will remain a key theater for that war, and a vital piece of MbS’ regional ambitions." Weiter...


"Why Does Uzbekistan Export So Many Terrorists?"

Der am Dienstag festgenommene mutmaßliche Attentäter von New York stamme wie viele Terroristen vor ihm aus Usbekistan, stellt Julia Ioffe fest. In der früheren Sowjetrepublik gehe die Regierung mit "drakonischen" Maßnahmen gegen die radikalislamische Terrorgruppe Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) vor. Damit werde das Problem jedoch nur verdrängt, u.a. auch ins Ausland. "Saipov’s Uzbek roots (...) highlight the complex interplay of factors that go into an individual’s radicalization. In Uzbekistan, as it has been noted, Islamist extremism is often a stand-in for anti-authoritarianism and discontent with the violence and corruption of the Karimov clan. It also indicates that the authoritarian environments of the post-Soviet states - Uzbekistan in particular - have proven that cracking down on religious practice and ideology are ineffective. The measures not only fail to stop extremism, they seem to be its chief incubators. And with no caliphate to travel to, the extremism born in places like Uzbekistan will find other places to spread." Weiter...


"What the Attack in New York Revealed About the Islamic State's Supporters"

Nach Ansicht von Graeme Wood sollte die von ihr festgestellte Inkompetenz des mutmaßlichen Attentäters von New York nicht als Entwarnung missverstanden werden. "As long as the Islamic State’s attackers are idiots like Saipov, our societies can probably handle them. (...) The Idiots’ Crusade is a manageable problem. Much less tolerable would be a campaign of competent terror — the kind of mayhem enabled by training, like the 2015 Bataclan killers in Paris had, or by patient planning, as Stephen Paddock in Las Vegas did. There is not much to be done about the idiots, but their idiocy provides a natural limit to the damage they can do. As the Islamic State loses territory, the greatest danger remains the prospect that some of the battle-hardened fighters will return home, raising the average IQ of attackers, and making possible attacks that would be many times more deadly than this one." Weiter...


"The Islamic World Doesn't Need a Reformation"

Braucht die islamische Welt eine ähnliche "Reformation" wie das Christentum vor 500 Jahren? Mustafa Akyol hält das Zeitalter der Aufklärung für wegweisender und schreibt, dass der Islam heute weniger einen Martin Luther als einen John Locke benötige. Die Reformansätze des saudi-arabischen Kronprinzen Mohammed bin Salman gäben vor diesem Hintergrund durchaus Anlass zur Hoffnung. "It is especially significant that this call for moderation implies not just fighting terrorism, but also liberalizing society by curbing the 'religion police,' empowering women, and being 'open to the world and all religions.' This argument may sound counterintuitive to some Western liberals, who are prone to think that the best thing for a state is to just stay out of religion. But in a reality where the state is already deeply involved in religion, its steps toward moderation and liberalization should be welcome. It’s also worth remembering that the success of the Enlightenment in Europe was partly thanks to the era of 'Enlightened despots,' the monarchs who preserved their power even as they realized crucial legal, social, and educational reforms." Weiter...


"The Kurds Are Right Back Where They Started"

Die Ereignisse der vergangenen Wochen und Monate haben Joost Hiltermann zufolge dazu geführt, dass die Kurden im Irak in ihren Unabhängigkeitsbemühungen wieder auf den Stand von 1991 zurückgeworfen worden sind. "The sad reality is that Iraq’s Kurds remain landlocked, their status determined by the interests of their more powerful neighbors. Internally, they are more divided than they have been in two decades. (...) Whether the Barzani dynasty, or the KDP-PUK duopoly, will survive this disastrous setback to the Kurdish drive for statehood is next up. A young Kurd has two aspirations: that the two parties will disappear, to be replaced by more unified, more competent, more democratic, and less corrupt government, and that deepening antagonism between the U.S., Iran, and Turkey will give the Kurds new breathing space and an opportunity to start building again. One thing is certain: their hope for independence will never die." Weiter...


"When Rich Places Want to Secede"

Katalonien ist Steven Johnson zufolge weltweit nur eine von vielen relativ wohlhabenden Regionen, die nicht länger für ärmere Landesteile aufkommen möchten und deshalb größere Autonomie oder sogar eine Sezession anstreben. "The common wisdom used to be that separatist movements mostly came from weak minorities that rallied around racial or ethnic injustices. 'With globalization, that changed significantly,' said Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, a professor of economic geography at the London School of Economics (LSE). 'Virtually everywhere in the world,' movements have swapped out the 'identity card' for the “economic card.' Erin Jenne, a professor of international relations at Central European University, agrees. Economic inequality is one of a few factors that can keep independence movements simmering, but they won’t boil over without a catalyst — usually some external circumstance like a major political crisis, or an offer from another country to provide military support to a region with separatist aspirations, she said. After all, inequality between regions is baked into the entire concept of modern nationhood — if subsidizing poorer parts of a country were motivation enough to split off, every region would have done it by now." Weiter...


"Operation Barkhane: France's Counter-Terrorism Forces in Africa"

Der Reuters-Fotograf Benoit Tessier hat eine Bilderserie über den 2012 begonnenen Antiterror-Einsatz französischer und afrikanischer Truppen in Mali zusammengestellt. "What began as a French military reaction to an Islamic insurgency in Mali in 2012 has now grown into a more permanent and cross-border counter-terrorism effort by France and five African nations called Operation Barkhane. Currently, about four thousand French soldiers are involved, based in Mali, Chad, Niger, Ivory Coast, and Burkina Faso, and operating across the entire southern Sahara region. France’s military is also coordinating with West African forces, UN peacekeeping forces, and other allied military operations in the area." Weiter...


"China Is Quietly Reshaping the World"

Anja Manuel ist der Überzeugung, dass die globale Investitionsinitiative "Belt and Road" Chinas langfristige und aus westlicher Sicht nicht nur negative Folgen für die internationale Ordnung haben wird. "China is quickly growing into the world’s most extensive commercial empire. (...) The scale and scope of the Belt and Road initiative is staggering. Estimates vary, but over $300 billion have already been spent, and China plans to spend $1 trillion more in the next decade or so. According to the CIA, 92 countries counted China as their largest exports or imports partner in 2015, far more than the United States at 57. (...) Unlike the United States and Europe, China uses aid, trade, and foreign direct investment strategically to build goodwill, expand its political sway, and secure the natural resources it needs to grow. (...) If China’s geoeconomic push continues, it will be its largest legacy and have a profound impact on the world — not necessarily all negative. Since the West doesn’t have $1 trillion to lavish on developing country infrastructure in a new great game, its best choice may be to coopt and shape this juggernaut." Weiter...


"Out of Tragedy, An Opportunity for Somalia"

Die politische Elite in Somalia sollte den blutigen Selbstmordanschlag in Mogadischu als Gelegenheit betrachten, das Vertrauen der Bevölkerung zurückzugewinnen, meint Amanda Sperber. Dem stehe allerdings gegenüber, dass die Führung des Landes durch Transparency International seit zehn Jahren als die weltweit korrupteste Regierung eingestuft wird. "As Somalia’s political class struggles to respond to Saturday’s attack, it will have its greatest opportunity to prove to a cynical but eternally hopeful people that despite decades of bloodshed, dysfunction, and corruption, the government is a legitimate, trusted entity, committed to protection and progress. (...) 'This has always been the billion-dollar question. If you think about how much money goes to Somalia every year, will this generate the political will to actually do what needs to be done to stabilize Somalia?' asked EJ Hogendoorn, the International Crisis Group’s Deputy Africa Program Director when we spoke on the phone. Much of the money designated to rebuild a country synonymous with the term 'failed state' has gone straight into politicians’ pockets." Weiter...


"Negotiating With Al-Shabaab Will Get America Out of Somalia"

Helen C. Epstein hält den blutigen Selbstmordanschlag in Mogadischu auch für eine Folge der überwiegend militärischen Reaktion der USA und ihrer regionalen Verbündeten auf die Krise in Somalia. Seit nun über zehn Jahren werde versucht, die Terrormiliz al-Shabaab zu zerschlagen. Ein dauerhafter Frieden werde wohl nur mit Verhandlungen zu erreichen sein, so Epsteins Fazit. "Al-Shabaab is notorious for enforcing a harsh version of Sharia law, including stonings and amputations, but their courts are mainly concerned with property disputes and other mundane cases, which they often resolve in ways that litigants tend to respect. Shabaab-controlled roads are also generally safe, and unlike the government’s, al-Shabaab’s tax rates are stable and don’t fluctuate according to the whims of whoever is collecting them (the group even gives receipts). Most importantly, al-Shabaab understands the traditional clan governance system that, unlike the central bureaucracy created by the international community, is respected by most Somalis and is consistent with their ways of life." Weiter...


"How America Changed Its Approach to Political Islam"

Die US-Regierung habe ihren Umgang mit dem politischen Islam in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten mehrfach geändert, erläutern Shadi Hamid, Peter Mandaville und William McCants in ihrem Rückblick. Die kontroversen Debatten werden ihrer Meinung nach andauern, da der politische Islam in der arabischen Welt wohl weiterhin eine wichtige Rolle spielen wird. "Today, Islamists constitute the ruling government in Morocco, a major opposition force in Jordan, and a significant political counterweight in Kuwait. A recent Brookings poll of experts suggested it likely that Islamists would return to power in Tunisia by 2020, and perhaps also in Syria and Yemen in the aftermath of those civil wars. If, or when, that happens, we will find ourselves having much the same debates. Hopefully, by then, we will have better answers for a problem that will have plagued the United States for nearly three decades." Weiter...


"How Perpetrators of Mass Violence Learn From Each Other"

Der Massenmord in Las Vegas zeigt nach Ansicht von David A. Graham, dass Gewalttäter der jüngeren Zeit unabhängig von ihrer Motivation voneinander lernen und bestimmte Taktiken erneut einsetzen, um möglichst viele Menschen zu töten. "It’s not a surprise that since the Bataclan massacre, which introduced the concert as a tool of modern terror, there have been two bloody attacks on concerts, one in Britain and one in the United States. That there will be more is a virtual certainty. This is because terrorists and other perpetrators of mass violence, whatever their motives, see what works and adopt it. Widespread press attention, which is itself a main goal of mass-casualty attacks, brings public awareness to the methods and can help inform would-be future attackers." Weiter...


"What Canada Can Teach Spain About Secessionists"

David Frum meint, dass sich die spanische Regierung bei ihrer Reaktion auf das katalanische Unabhängigkeitsreferendum besser am gewaltfreien Umgang Kanadas mit den Nationalisten in Quebec orientiert hätte. Der Separatismus in der mehrheitlich französischsprachigen Region sei durch eine nüchterne Debatte über die komplexen Voraussetzungen einer staatlichen Unabhängigkeit "entschärft" worden. "But the precondition for this kind of 'make it boring' strategy against secession is that it requires an absolute prohibition on state repression or violence against secessionists. Canada recognized that truth. So did the United Kingdom in its dealings with the Scottish Nationalists. Violence inflames passions — and passion is exactly what is wanted by those with the weaker argument. In a modern democratic welfare state, the secessionists almost always have the weaker argument, because the costs and risks of change are certainly higher than those of a decent and reasonable status quo." Weiter...


"How Spain Misunderstood the Catalan Independence Movement"

Hamid und Clara Pretus haben in einer Studie für die Organisation Artis International die psychologischen Hintergründe der katalanischen Unabhängigkeitsbewegung untersucht. Die Reaktion der spanischen Regierung auf das Referendum ist ihrer Ansicht nach die Folge eines grundsätzlichen Missverständnisses. "Authorities are attempting to wear down the movement by denying a vote. Our findings suggested that Madrid’s current approach may well backfire: The government’s muscular response to Catalans’ desire for self-determination could increase the number of independentists and heighten their passion, which, in the long run, may further erode the stability and reputation of Spain’s central government. Allowing a vote to proceed, meanwhile, could actually strengthen Madrid." Weiter...


"What Went Wrong With France's Deradicalization Program?"

Maddy Crowell erläutert die Hintergründe des Deradikalisierungsprogramms der französischen Regierung, das von vielen Experten als gescheitert betrachtet wird. Das Pilotprojekt im Pontourny Center sei mittlerweile eingestellt worden. "The media wrote the program off as 'a total fiasco.' But the center, according to CIPDR [Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization], was not a total failure. 'We were really starting to see an evolution in their thinking, but we didn’t have enough time,' the CIPDR said. For now, the Pontourny Center is shut down indefinitely. The CIPDR said they were working on developing new methods and would release a plan next year. But as the country grapples with whether to institute a new program, radicalization remains something of an existential threat for France. A better understanding of the problem would require the French to look inward at an array of complex socioeconomic and racial issues — something Valls, at least, appeared unwilling to do when he announced to the press in November 2015 that he was tired of 'social, sociological, and cultural excuses' to explain jihad. 'To explain is to excuse,' he said." Weiter...


"Is Saudi Arabia Really Changing?"

Die Aufhebung des Fahrverbots für Frauen in Saudi-Arabien könnte den Einfluss konservativer Prediger in der Gesellschaft zurückdrängen und zu einer "nationalen Transformation" des Landes führen, meint Simon Henderson. Es bleibe abzuwarten, auf welche Weise die Entscheidung in der Praxis umgesetzt wird. "There is also an important economic dimension: Currently, an estimated one million foreign men, mainly from the South Asia and the Philippines, are employed as drivers for Saudi families. Now, many will no longer be needed. (...) In the wider social-cum-political sphere, this measure further reduces the authority of the conservative clerics who have an institutionalized but increasingly threatened status. It also erodes the traditional social structure where the leadership of the family is held by old men. It is one thing for the word of the father or grandfather to be challenged by women in the privacy of the home. It is quite another for him to be perceived as lacking the family’s total respect outside his house." Weiter...


"Why Was Chad Included in the New Travel Ban?"

Obwohl der Tschad Krishnadev Calamur zufolge als enger Verbündeter der USA im regionalen Antiterrorkampf gilt, sind die Bürger des Landes ebenfalls vom neuen Einreiseverbot in die USA betroffen. "Terrorism aside, Chad certainly has its problems. These include an authoritarian government under President Idris Déby, politicization of the armed forces, and widespread poverty despite the country’s oil wealth. But the country — and the wider region — remains a key focus of Western counterterrorism efforts. Brigadier General Donald Bolduc, who until recently was commander of American Special Operations Forces in Africa, called the Lake Chad Basin, which encompasses Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, 'ground zero' of the war on extremism in Africa. 'I’m no fan of Idris Déby,' [Reed Brody, a human-rights lawyer who has worked in Chad,] told me, 'but this makes no sense.'" Weiter...


"The Long History of North Korea's Declarations of War"

Isaac Stone Fish stellt angesichts des rhetorischen Schlagabtausches zwischen den USA und Nordkorea mit Blick auf die Geschichte fest, dass beide Seiten ihre Drohungen üblicherweise nicht so ernst nehmen wie von einigen befürchtet. Donald Trump bleibe allerdings ein Unsicherheitsfaktor. "(...) while North Korea now has the potential to successfully strike the United States with a nuclear-tipped weapon, it’s worth remembering that it acted far more provocatively during the Cold War, when it had a close relationship with the Soviet Union. At that time, Washington understood that North Korean provocations — even when they led to the loss of U.S. lives — could be countered with shows of military might, diplomacy, and restraint. (...) The difference — and that which should worry Americans and North Koreans — is Trump. His absence of self-control, his susceptibility to flattery, his lack of political and military experience, and his sensitivity to slights, make him unsuited to recognize that often a path of restraint is in the best interest of the United States and the world." Weiter...


"What Total Destruction of North Korea Means"

Kori Schake hält die vor der UNO bekräftigte Nordkorea-Strategie von US-Präsident Trump aus taktischer Sicht für verfehlt. Es wäre schlauer gewesen, Nordkoreas Besitz von Atomwaffen herunterzuspielen und stattdessen zu bekräftigen, dass jegliche Aggression gegen die USA und ihre Verbündeten zum Sturz des Regimes führen würde. Zudem habe Trump mit seiner Drohung der Zerstörung eines ganzen Landes einen moralischen Vorteil verspielt. "(...) before the entire world, he threatened the destruction of an entire country. Not only does that draw a red line that will be difficult to walk back from; it is also a much less credible and ethical threat than a pledge to more narrowly target the Kim regime. Waging war against people already enslaved by an authoritarian government punishes them unjustly — that would have been an easy point score in front of a UN audience. (...) The reckless language out of the White House, both from the president and the national security advisor, is making a situation with little margin for error even more brittle. It’s deeply unsatisfying to choose to live with a nuclear-armed North Korea. But it’s a better choice than the alternatives." Weiter...


"The Doomed Palestinian Reconciliation Plan"

Angesichts früherer Fehlschläge erwartet Grant Rumley, dass auch der aktuelle Versuch einer Versöhnung der beiden Palästinenserfraktionen Fatah und Hamas letztlich scheitern wird. "(...) it seemed only a matter of time until Hamas either acquiesced or sparked another war with Israel. In the past, financial pressure has caused Hamas to lash out violently. (Weeks before the 2014 war, its members raided and closed local banks in Gaza.) Yet for now, the group’s new leadership has surprisingly opted for the former (...). The reality is that Hamas is unlikely to ever truly give up its military control over Gaza. The faction wants Abbas to pay for the costs of governing. Abbas wants total acquiescence and disarmament. Ultimately, there’s no middle ground here. Sunday’s announcement is just another move in a decade-long game of chess where everyday Palestinians continue to pay the price." Weiter...


"There Is No Precedent for What America Wants From North Korea"

Die Nordkorea-Krise ist nach Ansicht vieler Experten in der Geschichte der internationalen Beziehungen einzigartig. Uri Friedman schreibt, dass sich der Versuch, ein Land zur Einstellung des Atomwaffenprogramms zu zwingen, nur mit der internationalen Reaktion auf das geheime Atomprogramm Südafrikas in den 1970er Jahren vergleichen lasse. "Since South Africa was increasingly isolated internationally as a result of apartheid, its system of racial segregation and discrimination, the country’s leaders weren’t sure they could count on assistance from the United States and its allies in the event of aggression by the Soviets or their local proxies. So they developed half a dozen 'Hiroshima-type' atomic bombs as a 'deterrent,' according to former South African President F.W. de Klerk. It was de Klerk who made the decision to do away with a nuclear-weapons program that he controlled. I spoke with him to get a sense of what motivated him to make a move that no one else in history has." Weiter...


"Can Anyone Stop Burma’s Hardline Buddhist Monks?"

Die Krise in Myanmar ist Joe Freeman zufolge nicht zuletzt durch "ultranationalistische" buddhistische Gruppen verschärft worden, die den Hass auf Muslime seit Jahren schüren. "Muslims make up only about 4 percent of the country’s 53 million people, and the Rohingya make up part of that minority. But Rakhine State fuels nationwide existential angst as the Rohingya are concentrated in that territory, with more than 1.1 million living there. The state is seen as the 'Western Door' beyond which Muslim South Asia, and Global Islam, waits. 'There’s been a longstanding fear of Islamic cultures encroaching on Myanmar and weakening a national identity centered around Buddhism, and the violence of the past five years, which is spun as being largely perpetrated by Rohingya, confirms this in the minds of many,' Francis Wade, author of the new book Myanmar’s Enemy Within: Buddhist Violence and the Making of a Muslim Other, told me." Weiter...


"South Korea Is Right"

US-Präsident Trump hat Südkoreas Strategie gegenüber dem Norden als "Appeasement" kritisiert. Peter Beinart verteidigt den südkoreanischen Umgang mit dem Problem dagegen als "vernünftig". Präsident Moon Jae In habe Trump u.a. vorgeschlagen, die gemeinsamen Militärübungen im Fall nordkoreanischer Zugeständnisse bei den Raketentests zu reduzieren. "This sort of mutual freeze, the South Korean leader believes, could be the first step toward negotiations aimed at a formal peace agreement ending the Korean War. (...) Moon, in other words, thinks the best way to limit North Korea’s nuclear program is by making America and South Korea less—not more—menacing to Pyongyang. (...) China came up with the 'freeze for freeze' proposal that Moon appears to support. And if the Trump administration got on board, Beijing would feel tremendous pressure to show that it could deliver. (...) Why is the Trump administration so hostile to the idea? According to The New York Times, because the White House thinks North Korea will cheat. (...) yes, diplomacy with North Korea hasn’t worked perfectly. But as a method of restraining North Korea’s bomb making, [Leon Sigal, director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council] argues, 'nuclear diplomacy' has proved 'far superior to the record of pressure of sanctions and isolation without negotiations.'" Weiter...


"How Not to Threaten North Korea"

Amy Zegart wirft US-Präsident Trump vor, die seit Jahren schwelende Nordkorea-Krise durch seine Politik lautstarker Drohungen in unverantwortlicher Art und Weise angefacht zu haben. "Trump is committing deterrence malpractice — in four ways. The first is making threats so obviously hollow that many of his own advisers don’t believe or support them. (...) Trump’s second form of deterrence malpractice is that he conflates power with influence. (...) Which leads to Trump’s third type of deterrence malpractice: He talks too much. Effective deterrence is about signaling — often without words — that you really do mean what you say. In foreign policy, talk isn’t just cheap. It’s dangerous. (...) President Trump is committing deterrence malpractice in a fourth way — by dividing the nation rather than uniting it, playing to our worst hatreds and his strongest base rather than bringing the country together in support of broader objectives that serve the national interest." Weiter...


"America's Tit-for-Tat With Russia Is Adding Up"

Das Wechselspiel diplomatischer "Strafmaßnahmen" zwischen den USA und Russland gehe mit der angeordneten Schließung des russischen Konsulats in San Francisco in eine neue Runde, schreibt Krishnadev Calamur. Die Taktik erinnere an die Zeiten des Kalten Krieges. "Diplomatic and other expulsions were relatively common during the Cold War, when the U.S. and the Soviet Union faced off as the world’s two superpowers with opposing ideologies. Each country expelled diplomats accused of being spies. (...) In an interview, [Daniel Fried, who worked on the State Department’s Soviet desk at the time], who is now at the Atlantic Council, said the Cold War-era expulsion cycle yielded some insights for today. 'At some point, it ends - and [the current tit-for-tat] could end after this. But it may not, and you have to be prepared to take another hit. The lesson we learned in the ’80s was … don’t be afraid of getting into one of these cycles. … The other lesson is, when you’re in a bad cycle with the Russians, don’t be too anxious to find a way out of it. … Don’t feel obliged to be 'creative,' which could easily degenerate into racing to the Russians with various proposals, all of which could end up involving concessions on our part. Don’t be desperate. … We are the stronger power.'" Weiter...

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Die weltweiten Militärausgaben sind 2013 leicht zurückgegangen - auf 1,7 Billionen US-Dollar. Welches Land gibt wie viel für sein Militär aus? Und wer bezieht die meisten Waffen aus Deutschland? Das interaktive Portal liefert Antworten auf sicherheitspolitische Fragen. Weiter... 


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