US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

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21.08.2019

"Trump Has Defected"

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/trump-defects-autocrats/596518/

Thomas Wright von der Brookings Institution wirft US-Präsident Trump vor, mit seiner Reaktion auf die dänische Ablehnung des Kaufangebots für Grönland die gleiche Taktik zu verfolgen wie autoritäre Staaten. "It is one thing to float a cockamamie idea that no one believes is serious or will go anywhere. (...) It is quite another to use leverage and impose costs on Denmark in pursuit of that goal — and make no mistake, canceling a presidential visit is using leverage and imposing costs. What’s next, refusing to exempt Denmark from various tariffs because it won’t discuss Greenland? (...) This is the kind of thing the Russians and the Chinese do. It is territorial revisionism — the use of national power to acquire territory against the desire of its sovereign government and its people. (...) One uncomfortable truth is already inescapable. Free societies and autocracies are at odds with each other — over human rights, the rule of law, technology, freedom of the press, the free flow of information, and territorial expansion. At this particular moment, it is not sufficient to say that the free world is without a leader. He has actually defected to the other side."

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07.08.2019

"Don’t Give White Nationalists the Post-9/11 Treatment"

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/how-not-fight-white-nationalist-terrorists/595618/

Max Abrahms warnt vor einer Überreaktion auf die Massenschießerei in El Paso. "Is 9/11 the best model for us to aspire to replicate? Do we really want a war on terrorism at home? And what exactly would it look like? As a Columbia postdoc noted on Twitter, 'In response to 9/11, we invaded a country that had nothing to do with it because they shared an ethnicity with the attackers. If we treat white supremacist violence the same way, the equivalent might be regime change in Belarus.' For the sake of consistency, we could round up some white suspects, throw them in Guantánamo Bay, and dust off the old waterboard. (...) law enforcement must develop a subtle understanding of what constitutes extremism, and a thick skin. As a term, extremism is used sloppily to denote both a person’s political goals and the methods used to achieve them. There’s an important difference, though, between rooting for extreme ends and using extreme means to realize them. Chat rooms are full of people expressing sundry offensive — even reprehensible — political visions. The smart counterterrorist swallows hard and leaves them alone. But it’s interdiction time the moment the prospect of violence is even mentioned as a way forward."

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06.08.2019

"Where Veterans Aren’t Thanked for Their Service"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/08/what-makes-german-military-veteran/595381/?utm_
source=feed

Der Umgang mit Kriegsveteranen sei in Deutschland aufgrund der historischen Umstände in vieler Hinsicht einzigartig, berichtet Noah Barkin aus Berlin. "Today, nearly 75 years after the end of World War II and the devastation left by the Nazis, Germany remains deeply ambivalent about its military. There is no Veterans Day here to honor soldiers like Alex, and veterans aren’t celebrated at sporting events or other public occasions as they are in the United States and other European countries. The memorials erected in recent years to remember Germans who died in foreign wars are not prominently displayed, like those for American soldiers on the Mall in Washington, but rather hidden on a barren side street near the defense ministry and behind fences on a military base south of the capital. Few politicians speak openly about Germany’s combat veterans, and the Bundeswehr does not recognize those who fought abroad as a distinct group. Even the term veteran remains tainted by associations with the Nazis. (...) veterans groups (...) say that support for returning soldiers who are no longer active members of the Bundeswehr, a group that numbers in the hundreds of thousands, is sorely lacking. Bernhard Drescher, the head of a leading association for combat veterans, describes this group as Germany’s 'invisible veterans.' Strict German data-privacy laws prevent the Bundeswehr from keeping track of soldiers who have returned to civilian life. The military, for instance, has no way to track the social status or suicide rates for this group. Many have been left to fend for themselves, Drescher says."

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26.07.2019

"How to Choose Between the U.S. and China? It’s Not That Easy."

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/south-korea-china-united-states-dilemma/594850/?utm_
source=feed

Die geopolitische Rivalität zwischen den USA und China könnte viele Länder bald vor eine schwierige Wahl stellen, schreibt Uri Friedman. Aktuell sei das Dilemma in Südkorea besonders gut zu beobachten. "At a time when the struggle for supremacy between Washington and Beijing is intensifying, numerous countries — from Australia and New Zealand, to Japan and South Korea, to Thailand, the Philippines, Brazil, and Germany — are finding themselves in an awkward position: having the United States as their security ally and China as their top trading partner. The U.S. and Chinese governments aren’t explicitly demanding that these nations go all in with one or the other. Not yet, at least. But pressure to pick a side on specific issues — and the various contortions these countries go through to avoid doing so — has now become a recurring feature of international affairs, and could be a prelude to a broader sorting. (...) Nowhere is this dynamic more evident than in South Korea, which is acutely sensitive to the consequences of great-power contests, given that these have over the past century played a role in Japan’s occupation of Korea, the Korean War, and the division of the peninsula during the Cold War."

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20.07.2019

"FaceApp Makes Today’s Privacy Laws Look Antiquated"

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/faceapp-reveals-huge-holes-todays-privacy-laws/594358/

Die aktuelle FaceApp-Debatte zeigt nach Ansicht von Tiffany C. Li vom Information Society Project der Yale Law School, dass die westlichen Datenschutzgesetze mit der rasanten Ausbreitung von Kameras und Datensammlern nicht Schritt halten. Dies habe nur wenig mit der russischen Herkunft von FaceApp zu tun. "Walking around anywhere can get your face included in facial-recognition databases. How that information can be mined, manipulated, bought, or sold is minimally regulated — in the United States and elsewhere. Militaries, law-enforcement agencies, and commercial interests alike envision far-reaching uses of AI and facial recognition, but legal and regulatory controls lag far behind the pace of technology. For most people, never going outside is not an option. So laws in the United States and elsewhere need to be tuned up quickly — and not just because of FaceApp. (...) Concerns about Russian apps stem from the close relationship between government and industry, and the likelihood that Russian companies will be unable to fight government requests for data. Then again, companies in even the most liberal, democratic nations often have to share data with their government as well. (...) We can’t have effective laws until we expand our understanding of privacy to reflect the data-hungry world we now live in. The FaceApp privacy controversy is not overblown, but some attacks are misdirected. The problem isn’t photo-editing apps or third-party developers or Russian tech companies. What we are facing as a society is a systemic failure to protect privacy when new technologies force our preconceived notions of privacy to collapse."

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18.07.2019

"Leaks Are Changing How Diplomats Talk"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/07/changing-nature-diplomacy-age-leaks/594226/?utm
_source=feed

Tom McTague und Prashant Rao schreiben, dass sich die diplomatischen Kommunikationsformen im Zeitalter von WikiLeaks und Cyberkrieg deutlich verändert hätten. "Sensitive information, which might previously have been included on cables, is now being copied and pasted into WhatsApp messages and distributed among small circles of trusted officials; important communications are being shared on private email accounts outside the official systems of surveillance; government-issued laptops are being abandoned for the anonymity of airport computer stations to communicate with foreign governments in moments of crisis. These are just some of the techniques now being used by senior diplomats to protect themselves from exposure, with many now fearing — given domestic political divisions in Britain, the United States, and elsewhere — that they are just one disgruntled colleague or successful hack away from the premature end of their careers."

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16.07.2019

"What’s Behind Quebec’s Ban on Religious Symbols"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/07/quebec-bans-religious-symbols/593998/?utm_sourc
e=feed

Im kanadischen Quebec ist es bestimmten Bediensteten im öffentlichen Dienst künftig untersagt, religiöse Symbole zur Schau zu stellen. Dies betrifft muslimische Kopfbedeckungen, aber auch die jüdische Kippa und das christliche Kreuz. "That this debate is happening in Quebec is no surprise, given its history and how it views itself compared with the rest of Canada. Some Quebecers fear that the broader Canadian policy of multiculturalism will erase their 'distinct identity' as a French-speaking province. These concerns have translated into efforts such as Bill 21. The law is a decade in the making; for years, lawmakers discussed legislating secularism and tried to ban religious symbols in public. (...) The law’s supporters present the measure as being intrinsically part of the province’s identity. Being a Quebecer, they say, means believing that religious symbols might be fine in private, but that public servants shouldn’t be allowed to wear them, lest they impede their decision making at work."

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15.07.2019

"Democrats Have Found Their Battle Cry"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/democrats-have-found-their-battle-cry/593881/?utm_so
urce=feed

Im kommenden US-Wahlkampf werden die Demokraten Uri Friedman zufolge alles daran setzen, um Präsident Trump als Gefahr für die Demokratie und die "freie Welt" zu präsentieren. Ob diese Strategie sich auszahlen wird, werde von konservativen Experten bezweifelt. "By cozying up to dictators and casting aside democratic allies abroad, and mimicking strongmen while undermining institutions at home, Trump is making the world safe for autocracy, the 2020 presidential candidates assert. The defining struggle of our time is between the forces of democracy and authoritarianism, they say, and the leader of the land of the free has strayed into enemy territory. (...) James Jay Carafano of the conservative Heritage Foundation (...) told me he doesn’t think the Democratic gambit will work. Voters, he argued, tend to choose their candidate based on the politician’s domestic-policy positions and then trust him or her to do the right thing on foreign policy. Those who like Trump will vote for him; those who don’t won’t; and those in the middle will make their decision based on whether they feel safe and economically better off, he said, not on whether or not the president is abetting authoritarianism."

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08.07.2019

"Taiwan’s Status is a Geopolitical Absurdity"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/07/taiwans-status-geopolitical-absurdity/593371/

Der völkerrechtliche und geopolitische Status Taiwans könne nur als "absurd" betrachtet werden, meint Chris Horton. Die jahrzehntelang geltende US-Strategie gegenüber dem Inselstaat habe sich unter Präsident Trump allerdings spürbar verschoben. "Trump (...) is heading what is easily the most pro-Taiwan White House since the [Taiwan Relations Act of 1979] went into effect. The State Department and Pentagon are stacked with China hawks and friends of Taiwan, and there is an obvious push for normalization of arms packages, both big and small."

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05.07.2019

"Trump Couldn’t Ignore the Contradictions of His Foreign Policy Any Longer"

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/trump-tries-to-fix-his-foreign-policy-without-bolton/59
3284/

US-Präsident Trump hat nach Ansicht von Thomas Wright die Widersprüche seiner Außenpolitik erkannt und mit einer Kurskorrektur begonnen. Dazu gehöre offenbar auch, Sicherheitsberater Bolton stärker an den Rand zu drängen. "It has been obvious for months that Trump did not want war with Iran, but Bolton kept the president from hearing from officials who would offer a contrary view to the hawks. Never one for protocol, Trump decided to go outside normal channels and started talking with [Fox News’s Tucker Carlson], who now appears to be a confidant. It says a lot about Bolton’s own insecurity that he would prefer to put his boss in the position of relying on a talk-show host rather than allow an interagency meeting where a diversity of views might be raised. In the reckoning, there is some clarity. It is now clear that Trump wants talks with Iran, just like with North Korea. Calling off the strikes was the right judgment call, but things should never have gotten to that point. (...) The era of action ultimately forced Trump to choose dealmaking over militarism. He could change his mind in the future — particularly if he thinks he will look weak for not responding to new provocations, real or perceived — but the frame for the next 18 months appears to be set."

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05.07.2019

"Europe Has Turned Its Back on Its ISIS Suspects"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/trump-administration-pushes-europe-try-isis-suspects
/593296/?utm_source=feed

Die italienische Regierung hat vor kurzem einen aus Italien stammenden mutmaßlichen IS-Kämpfer aus Syrien zurückgebracht, um ihn in dessen Heimat vor Gericht zu stellen. Kathy Gilsinan stellt fest, dass andere europäische Regierungen diesem Vorbild offenbar nicht folgen wollen. "The irony is that some western European countries, whose representatives were appalled by America’s indefinite detention of terrorism suspects at Guantánamo Bay after September 11, are now by default accepting a sprawling Guantánamo in the desert. (...) A further irony is that authoritarian Central Asian countries, such as Kazakhstan, have been leading the way on repatriating their citizens from Iraq and Syria — especially women and children — and casting their efforts in humanitarian terms, Letta Tayler, a senior researcher in terrorism and counterterrorism at Human Rights Watch, told me. (...) it may not stay a humanitarian problem. The Islamic State’s predecessor, al-Qaeda in Iraq, built itself in part through breaking fighters out of prison; there are security problems in SDF prisons, and reports of attempted prison breaks. 'My concern at this point is if there is a prison break, we will be kicking ourselves. The Europeans will be kicking themselves,' said the senior State Department official. 'If there’s a prison break, these guys end up undetected on [Europe’s] borders.'"

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01.07.2019

"The U.S.-Saudi Alliance Is on the Brink"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/trump-blocking-big-change-us-saudi-alliance/592504/?
utm_source=feed

Sollte Donald Trump die Präsidentschaftswahl im nächsten Jahr tatsächlich verlieren, könnte dies weitreichende Folgen für die Beziehungen zwischen Saudi-Arabien und den USA haben, erwarten Uri Friedman und Yara Bayoumy. "Republican and Democratic presidents alike have been forced to mostly give Saudi Arabia a free pass on rights abuses and political repression, given the extent to which Washington relies on Riyadh as a stable geopolitical weight in the Middle East. But several 2020 candidates have made their displeasure clear. (...) The Khashoggi killing has not just angered members of Congress, but also prompted some lobbying firms and think tanks to reject Saudi funding. Saudi leaders recognize that the damage done to relations with the United States by the incident 'is worse than 9/11' in terms of the toll taken on the alliance, says Firas Maksad of the Arabia Foundation, a Washington-based think tank familiar with Saudi officials’ thinking, who met with Saudi officials during a visit to Riyadh in March."

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25.06.2019

"Trump’s Trade War With China Is Already Changing the World"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/trumps-trade-war-with-china-is-changing-the-wor
ld/592411/?utm_source=feed

Unabhängig vom Ausgang des Handelskriegs der USA gegen China habe der Streit bereits heute zu sichtbaren Veränderungen der Weltwirtschaft geführt, stellt Michael Schuman fest. "Deteriorating ties between the two countries are influencing everything from grand geopolitical strategy to our daily lives: where products at your local Walmart are made; where jobs will be created or lost; the technology we will (and won’t) be using; who may be studying next to you at Harvard; and how to invest your money. That means we could be at a history-altering moment. Since the 1990s, policymakers and business titans have assumed that the globe will become more and more integrated. (...) Not anymore. With that partnership between the U.S. and China anything but assured, businesses are redrawing the map of global production. (...) This realignment of business, technology and people is also taking place among nations. As China and the U.S. drift apart, a new pattern of global relations may be emerging. For instance, China and Russia are probably friendlier today than they were for most of the period when both were Communist. (...) For many countries with economic ties to China but strategic alliances with the United States, straddling the fence between the two will becoming more and more difficult."

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25.06.2019

"What the Iran Crisis Reveals About European Power"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/us-iran-sanctions-eu/592489/?utm_source=feed

Die Iran-Krise hat nach Ansicht von Tom McTague einmal mehr die geopolitische Machtlosigkeit Europas offenbart. Dies werde sich erst ändern, wenn die EU den Euro international als echte Konkurrenz zum US-Dollar etabliert. "'The U.S. position on Iran has shown that the EU’s security policy is controlled by the importance of the U.S. dollar to global trade,' Tom Tugendhat, the British member of Parliament and chair of the U.K. Parliament’s foreign-affairs committee, told me. 'U.S. sanctions determine our policy, and unless there is a new global currency and banking system, it will remain so.' This reality, acknowledged in private by European diplomats, officials, and foreign-policy advisers, has all but eliminated European leverage in the crisis so far. (...) To rival U.S. economic power, Europe may need a rival currency — and a single monetary policy. But to develop such an alternative, the euro needs the kind of radical reform fiercely opposed in Berlin."

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24.06.2019

"The Question the Iran Hawks Haven’t Answered"

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/iran-hawks-owe-americans-some-answers/592390/

Peter Beinart fordert von den Befürwortern eines Militärschlags gegen den Iran, vorab eine wichtige Frage zu beantworten: "What happens after the bombing starts?" Dass diese Frage seit 2001 in den USA immer wieder nur mit äußerst vagen Versprechungen beantwortet worden sei, habe die bekannten katastrophalen Folgen gehabt. "I supported the Iraq War. (And wrote a book about why I was wrong). My prewar prognostications don’t hold up any better than those put forth by Gerecht, Bolton, or Graham. But those of us who advocated war — and were proved disastrously wrong — have a special responsibility to grapple, in detail, with the potential costs of another one. As David Brooks wrote in 2015, in a column on what he had learned from having supported the invasion of Iraq, that experience should lead 'us to honor those who respect the unfathomable complexity of history and who are humble in the face of consequences to their actions that they cannot fully predict or understand.' I don’t detect much humility from the people now advocating war with Iran."

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24.06.2019

"Love Letter Diplomacy May Help Drive Talks With North Korea"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/north-korea-nuclear-talks-may-hinge-love-letter
-diplomacy/592369/?utm_source=feed

Duyeon Kim vom Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists meint, dass der rege Briefverkehr zwischen Nordkoreas Staatschef Kim Jong Un und US-Präsident Trump nicht vorschnell als bedeutungslos abgetan werden sollte. "Trump’s unconventional (and even brash) style in foreign affairs is unfortunately inescapable. But unconventionality, if used strategically and creatively, might prove to yield lasting breakthroughs when dealing with a unique country like North Korea. The continued exchange of love letters between the two leaders, although normally inadvisable under any other American president, might need to become a new norm. Trump and Kim cannot regularly converse on the sidelines of major international summits like other normal states, and communicating directly with Kim is the surest way to glean insights into North Korean thinking. (...) Washington and Pyongyang have yet to agree on the goals for denuclearization. Despite all the relationship summitry, North Korea is steadily advancing its nuclear-weapons program and has shown no signs that it might one day scrap it. This makes it easy to be pessimistic about the prospects for denuclearization. Before breaking up, though, Washington and Pyongyang need to allow diplomatic negotiations to function properly and test each other’s intentions; the president’s next love letter might just be able to break the pause in talks."

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22.06.2019

"Is There Still a Deal to Be Done With Iran?"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/iran-drone-deal/592339/?utm_source=feed

Uri Friedman und Kathy Gilsinan haben Experten zur aktuellen Krise zwischen den USA und Iran befragt und erkennen "schwache Anzeichen" für die Möglichkeit, dass es doch noch zu diplomatischen Gesprächen kommen könnte. "(...) the attacks in the Gulf region, and Iranian threats to start abandoning the nuclear deal without some form of economic relief (...) point to an Iranian effort to build up leverage, Jake Sullivan, a former Iran negotiator in the Obama administration, told us. Doing so 'gives them a rationale for coming to the table in something other than a submissive way,' he said. They might still insist on concessions as a condition for talks — possibly, [Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution,] said, a partial lifting of oil sanctions to bring them back to the levels they were trading in May. (...) Whatever it takes to start talks, if that’s even possible, what the parties actually talk about is another matter. The administration has laid out 12 demands it says the Iranians must meet (...) that would amount to a total overhaul of Iran’s foreign policy. (...) 'It’s one thing to get talks going just to de-escalate tensions,' Sullivan said, 'but in terms of actually solving the problem … where is the Venn diagram that there’s anything remotely resembling the overlap?' Still, he thinks it’s at least conceivable they could talk to each other."

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18.06.2019

"Egypt’s Only Democratic Leader Helped Kill Its Democracy"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/mohammed-morsi-hope-flaws-egypt-revolution/5919
28/?utm_source=feed

Thanassis Cambanis erinnert nach dem Tod von Mohammed Mursi an die umstrittene Amtszeit des ägyptischen Ex-Präsidenten. Mursi sei ein Symbol des Scheiterns der kurzlebigen Revolution in Ägypten. "Largely because of the contrast with Sisi’s villainous regime, Morsi is sometimes remembered too fondly. He was an uninspiring orator, widely mocked for malapropisms, as when he compared the global order to spaghetti. But he wasn’t a benevolent buffoon. He had a doctorate from the University of Southern California and a lifetime of experience as an underground leader of a secretive and hierarchical religious order. By the time he stumbled into the presidency, he had come to mirror the authoritarian system he had sought his whole life to overthrow. The arrogance, incompetence, and maximalism of Morsi’s presidency suggest a powerful lesson for those who hope to transform unjust governments in Algeria, in Sudan, in whichever cruelly governed regime next faces its comeuppance. Any successful revolution will have to first tame the military and second build an inclusive coalition that promotes rights for all."

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17.06.2019

"Iran Has Options and It’s Starting to Use Them"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/iran-threatens-breach-nuclear-deal/591826/?utm_sourc
e=feed

Kathy Gilsinan betrachtet den Vorfall im Golf von Oman als Beleg des Scheiterns der US-Kampagne des "maximalen Drucks" gegen den Iran. Teheran sei keineswegs eingeschüchtert, sondern offenbar entschlossen, seine bestehenden Möglichkeiten für gezielte Gegenschläge zu nutzen. "Trump has claimed he seeks not regime change from Iran, but behavior change, Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, wrote to me in an email. 'Tehran, however, does not distinguish between economic and military warfare, since both will most likely result in collapse of the regime. This is why they try to disrupt the flow of oil to the global markets, hoping president Trump, who generally appears to be disinclined to entangle the United States in wars in the Middle East, realizes the cost of his ‘maximum pressure campaign’ against Tehran and changes his approach.' If this is in fact Iran’s intent, it has many capabilities at its disposal, according to a 2017 report from the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence, the most recent made public."

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11.06.2019

"A Russian Journalist’s Arrest Counters the Image of Putin the Puppet Master"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/ivan-golunov-putin-puppet-master-myth/591469/?u
tm_source=feed

Verhaftung und Freilassung des russischen Journalisten Ivan Golunov widerlegen nach Ansicht von Anna Nemtsova das im Westen verbreitete Bild eines allmächtigen Präsidenten Putin. "While the Russian president undoubtedly exercises a significant amount of power here, the latest episode highlights the dissonance between how he is portrayed abroad — as being a master orchestrator who is to blame for all of the country’s actions, both at home and elsewhere — and the limits of his reach in reality. [Golunov´s] detention overshadowed the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, an annual Kremlin-organized event that the Russian government attaches great importance to: This year, Putin was meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. (...) the entire episode proved a distraction from a set-piece meeting that Putin had expected would garner wide media coverage. Hardly a strategy that the government would have orchestrated. 'That was not the Kremlin who wanted to see Golunov behind bars,' Tanya Lokshina, the Moscow-based associate director for Human Rights Watch’s Europe and Central Asia division, told me. Golunov’s arrest and subsequent release are only the latest such example of questions over the limits of Putin’s power. Analysts and critics say there is a degree of freelancing by security officers and government officials who believe they are carrying out the Kremlin’s ultimate bidding, or at least have its passive acquiescence, only to see draconian measures like arresting or attacking critics backfire."

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04.06.2019

"The U.S. Is Losing Europe in its Battle With China"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887
/?utm_source=feed

Noah Barkin stellt nach zahlreichen Gesprächen mit amerikanischen und europäischen Experten fest, dass es zwischen den USA und Europa eine tiefe "strategische Kluft" in der China-Frage gebe. Diese Kluft werde nach der Amtszeit von Präsident Trump nicht einfach verschwinden und könne das transatlantische Verhältnis nachhaltig belasten. "(...) conversations I had with dozens of officials on both sides of the Atlantic — many of whom requested anonymity to talk about diplomatic and intelligence issues — suggest that instead of coming together, Europe and the U.S. might be in the early stages of a damaging divergence on the China challenge. Trump’s latest moves, which raise the specter of a prolonged economic Cold War between Washington and Beijing, are likely to deepen the divide, taking the U.S. down a path that is unpalatable for even the hardest of European hard-liners. (...) The dissonance raises the prospect of a Western split on what both sides agree is likely to be the biggest geopolitical challenge of the 21st century — responding to the rise of an authoritarian China. (...) Regardless of who is in the White House, European countries must prepare for a world in which they will be viewed by Washington through a China prism — much in the same way that Europe was seen through a Soviet lens during the Cold War. If no common agenda is possible, the transatlantic relationship might be headed for even more trouble, Trump or no Trump."

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03.06.2019

"The ‘Special Relationship’ Has Seen Better Days"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/trump-visits-uk/590860/?utm_source=feed

Anlässlich des London-Besuchs von US-Präsident Trump weist Yasmeen Serhan auf die aktuellen politischen Meinungsverschiedenheiten zwischen beiden Ländern hin. "In 2019, they are divided over how to deal with Iran (Washington has withdrawn from the nuclear deal with Tehran that London, along with its European partners, has struggled to keep alive), and they are split on Huawei and the implications of Britain’s decision to allow the Chinese company to build part of its 5G network. They have even sparred over Britain’s domestic politics: Whereas a majority of British lawmakers oppose a scenario in which their country would leave the EU without a withdrawal agreement, Trump appears to have all but encouraged a no-deal Brexit. The point of Trump’s state visit, seemingly, is to quell those divisions — if not in practice, then at least aspirationally."

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01.06.2019

"Turkey’s Global Soft-Power Push Is Built on Mosques"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/turkey-builds-mosques-abroad-global-soft-power/
590449/?utm_source=feed

Anlässlich der Eröffnung einer von Ankara finanzierten Moschee in der albanischen Hauptstadt Tirana macht John M. Beck darauf aufmerksam, dass die Türkei weltweit "tausende" muslimische Gotteshäuser unterstützt. "(Erdogan´s] government has progressively expanded a global soft-power campaign, and mosques are only the most obvious result. It also supports religious schooling, a program for restoring Ottoman-era buildings, and extensive social and aid operations. Most beneficiaries have so far welcomed the assistance, but a few, notably in Germany, now worry that Turkish influence could deepen their own communal divides or even be a vehicle for espionage. (...) Turkey’s mosques are controlled by the Directorate of Religious Affairs, or Diyanet, a state body that employs imams, writes sermons, and issues fatwas. It was founded in 1924, but grew rapidly under the AKP to become a more overtly political organ with an ambitious global remit. With well over 100,000 people now on its payroll, its budget has expanded more than fourfold since 2006, during Erdoğan’s first term as prime minister, to 12.5 billion lira ($2 billion) this year. That figure is orders of magnitude larger than many government ministries, and even the national intelligence agency."

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01.06.2019

"The Disturbing Logic of Trump’s Lovefest With Kim Jong Un"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/why-doe-donald-trump-keep-praising-kim-jong-un/59083
0/?utm_source=feed

Die in vielen Augen verwirrend erscheinende Nordkorea-Politik des US-Präsidenten basiert Uri Friedman zufolge offenbar auf einer für Donald Trump typischen Verhandlungsstrategie. "When I asked William Ury, a co-author of the business-negotiation bible Getting to Yes, about Trump’s perplexing praise for Kim, he told me that he saw a clear method to the president’s seeming madness — one that he felt was deliberate because Trump has exhibited a pattern of behavior, even amid overwhelming criticism. Trump appears to be operating with the philosophy 'The cheapest concession you can make in a negotiation is to give the other fellow a little respect,' which buys you a counterpart willing to hear you out and maybe even work with you, said Ury, who is also a co-founder of Harvard Law School’s Program on Negotiation. (...) The president also seems to be adhering to a principle recommended in Ury’s book: being 'soft on the people' you’re negotiating with (in this case, Kim) while being 'hard on the problem' (...). Ury isn’t the only one to spot a certain logic to Trump’s approach. This week Thae Yong Ho, one of the highest-ranking officials ever to defect from North Korea, told Bloomberg’s Eli Lake that he thought Trump’s flattery of Kim had boxed in the North Korean leader. As Thae sees it, this allows the U.S. president to keep up the economic pressure on Kim while deterring him from exiting the nuclear negotiations or conducting nuclear and missile tests that could trigger a forceful U.S. response."

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26.05.2019

"A Lesson From 1930s Germany: Beware State Control of Social Media"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/05/germany-war-radio-social-media/590149/?utm_sour
ce=feed

In der Debatte über eine staatliche Regulierung der Sozialen Medien warnt Heidi Tworek vor allzu restriktiven Forderungen. Dabei verweist sie als Negativbeispiel auf die nationalsozialistische Kontrolle der Staatsmedien im Deutschland der 1930er Jahre. "The Nazi example, though extreme, reminds us that well-intentioned laws can have tragic unintended consequences. (...) German politicians drew their own lessons from history to try to protect democracy. In 2017, Germany passed the Network Enforcement Act (Netzwerkdurchsetzungsgesetz, or NetzDG). (...) Known colloquially as a 'hate speech law,' NetzDG was arguably the first and most wide-ranging effort by a democracy to hold social-media companies responsible for speech on their platforms. One poll showed that 87 percent of Germans agreed with the law, but it drew sharp criticism from journalists, civil-society activists, academics, and the tech industry. Many signed a declaration that the law 'jeopardizes the core principles of free expression.' (...) It is time for politicians to take the regulation of social media seriously. In the long run, however, they must be careful not to undermine the freedoms and the political system that they seek to protect."

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23.05.2019

"The Impossible Future of Christians in the Middle East"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/05/iraqi-christians-nineveh-plain/589819/?utm_sour
ce=feed

Die Verdrängung christlicher Gemeinden aus dem Nahen Osten habe in den vergangenen Jahren scheinbar unaufhaltsam zugenommen, schreibt Emma Green in ihrer umfangreichen Reportage. "The graph of the religion’s decline in the Middle East has in recent years transformed from a steady downward slope into a cliff. The numbers in Iraq are especially stark: Before the American invasion, as many as 1.4 million Christians lived in the country. Today, fewer than 250,000 remain — an 80 percent drop in less than two decades. (...) the fate of Christianity in places like the Nineveh Plain has a geopolitical significance as well. Religious minorities test a country’s tolerance for pluralism; a healthy liberal democracy protects vulnerable groups and allows them to participate freely in society. Whether Christians can survive, and thrive, in Muslim-majority countries is a crucial indicator of whether democracy, too, is viable in those places. (...) They do, however, have an influential and powerful ally: the United States government, which, under President Donald Trump, has made supporting Christianity in the Middle East an even more overt priority of American foreign policy than it was under George W. Bush or Barack Obama. Since Trump took office, the Nineveh Plain has received significant amounts of investment from the U.S. government."

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23.05.2019

"America’s Alliance System Will Face One of Its Biggest Tests Yet"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/us-and-south-korea-gear-burden-sharing-talks/589999/
?utm_source=feed

US-Präsident Trump will Südkorea in laufenden Verhandlungen zwingen, sich stärker an den finanziellen Kosten der Stationierung von US-Truppen zu beteiligen. Uri Friedman schreibt, dass ein Scheitern der Gespräche weitreichende Konsequenzen für das globale Bündnissystem der USA haben könnte. "If these talks fail and future negotiations with other allies collapse as well, it could potentially precipitate withdrawals of U.S. forces, constrain America’s capacity to project power globally, and encourage partners to embark on their own defense buildups and more independent foreign policies. All of which would scramble geopolitics in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, at a time when the Trump administration has staked out the strategic goal of competing with powers such as China and Russia for supremacy in the 21st century. (...) The next round of talks will signal where Trump, who’s gunning for a second term, stands on alliances. Nations that partner with the United States will be watching the proceedings closely to see what new demands the president makes of South Korea. The most likely outcome is that the parties strike some sort of compromise. But should the improbable happen, it could prove world-changing."

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08.05.2019

"The Slow Death of the Iran Nuclear Deal"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/05/rouhani-iran-nuclear-deal-us/589042/?utm_source
=feed

Ankit Panda bezweifelt, dass die Unterzeichner des internationalen Atomabkommens sich den USA im Streit mit dem Iran effektiv entgegenstellen werden. Der "langsame Tod" des Abkommens werde damit weiter voranschreiten. "In Shakespearean terms, the tragedy of the JCPOA is halfway through the fourth act — the falling action that followed last year’s climactic decision by the United States to gut any value the agreement had for Iran with the reimposition of sanctions. (...) The most serious concern now is that the 60-day period elapses without any satisfying result to whatever E3+2 and Iran negotiations might occur, and Tehran pushes through enrichment limits and takes steps to reverse the disablement of facilities at Arak. Given a measurable increase in proliferation risks as a result of these actions, the well-known views of influential members of the administration such as Bolton, and rising tensions between the two countries, the odds of a military conflict grow. (...) As far as the administration will be concerned, the 'maximum pressure' campaign prosecuted against Iran over the past year worked — not because it was ever meant to bring Iran to the negotiating table to reach a new agreement, but because it got Iran to begin a unilateral move away from compliance with the JCPOA."

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01.05.2019

"How an Elaborate Plan to Topple Venezuela’s President Went Wrong"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/white-house-venezuela-maduro-failed/588454/?utm_sour
ce=feed

Uri Friedman rekapituliert das Scheitern des jüngsten Umsturzversuches in Venezuela. "As Tuesday, April 30, began, the United States and its allies thought they finally had checkmate, after months of building up the opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president and recruiting more than 50 nations to their cause. By the end of the day, the board had been flipped upside down, pieces were scattered everywhere, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was on CNN blaming the kingmakers, Russia and Cuba, for sabotaging the game."

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30.04.2019

"Colombia Is Losing the Race Against the Venezuelan Migrant Crisis"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/04/un-tents-venezuelan-migrants-colombia/588007/?u
tm_source=feed

Mit der Einrichtung von Zeltlagern an der Grenze zu Venezuela habe Kolumbien implizit eingestanden, dass die Flüchtlingskrise in der Region von dauerhafter Natur sein könnte, schreibt Dylan Baddour. "Neat rows of family-size tents from the United Nations refugee agency, 60 in all, flap in the wind on a patch of empty desert near Colombia’s border with Venezuela. Nearby, a construction crew flattens the parched earth for space to set up three times as many. This is precisely what Colombia had insisted would never happen. (...) as the first rows of UN tents have gone up in the area near the border, and with the situation in Venezuela showing no signs of resolving itself, Colombia’s effort, lauded by experts and aid workers, looks instead like a race against the clock, with time ticking away until refugee camps become the only option to house new arrivals. In effect, this country is fighting to keep ahead of Venezuela’s cascading collapse."

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