US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

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"Protesters in Sudan and Algeria Have Learned From the Arab Spring"

Die Demonstranten in Algerien und Sudan haben nach Ansicht von Isma'il Kushkush aus den Fehlern des Arabischen Frühlings gelernt. "Though it is still early and much could yet change, their efforts have delivered results: Bouteflika has resigned, and Bashir has been unseated by Sudan’s military. Here’s how these protests are different from 2011: BROADER APPEAL. For years, the work of opposing the Sudanese government had been undertaken by traditional political parties and rebel groups, who formed ever-changing alliances. (...) This year, the Sudanese Professionals Association, an independent trade union, took the lead. It may be composed of activists who belong to various political groups, but the appearance and appeal of an unaffiliated, nonideological body has been instrumental in mobilizing masses of people (...) STAYING UNITED. (...) DIGITALLY SAVVY. (...) DON’T TRUST THE ARMY. To avoid an Egypt-like scenario, protesters in Algeria and Sudan have been wary of promises from the army. (...) Though protesters in both Sudan and Algeria have emphasized the local characteristics of their frustrations, and have been loath to be lumped into pan-Arab narratives, there are nevertheless parallels, and lessons that have been learned. Many see this as a 'late Arab Spring,' Mansour, the Egyptian activist, said. 'They understood the conclusion of what happened in the Arab Spring in the first wave,' he added."

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"Julian Assange Got What He Deserved"

Michael Weiss hält Sympathien für den verhafteten Wikileaks-Gründer Julian Assange dagegen für unangebracht. "In the end, the man who reportedly smeared feces on the walls of his lodgings, mistreated his kitten, and variously blamed the ills of the world on feminists and bespectacled Jewish writers was pulled from the Ecuadorian embassy looking every inch like a powdered-sugar Saddam Hussein plucked straight from his spider hole. (...) If he is innocent of hacking U.S. government systems — or can offer a valid public-interest defense for the hacking — then let him have his day in court, first in Britain and then in America. But don’t continue to fall for his phony pleas for sympathy, his megalomania, and his promiscuity with the facts. Julian Assange got what he deserved."

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"The Plan to Resurrect the North Korea Nuclear Talks"

Uri Friedman berichtet nach Gesprächen mit südkoreanischen Offiziellen, dass die USA und Südkorea bei dem Versuch, den diplomatischen Prozess mit Nordkorea neu zu beleben, unterschiedliche Strategien verfolgen. "The collapse of the February summit stunned South Korean officials, who had pinned all sorts of plans for reconciling with North Korea on a breakthrough in Hanoi. Seoul is now working on a rather unfortunately named 'good enough' deal. But there’s no indication yet that Trump or Kim will accept it. As South Korean officials describe it, the good-enough deal involves the United States and North Korea committing to a comprehensive agreement on peace, denuclearization, and new relations (a U.S.-style big deal) that will be implemented step-by-step (a series of North Korea–style small deals). The idea is to get North Korea to accept the end state, and the United States the process, that each dismissed in Hanoi. This good-enough deal would come in the form of a road map for reaching the desired goal within some specified time frame. (...) If the United States continues to take the position that it won’t lift sanctions until North Korea’s complete denuclearization, then 'incremental implementation won’t work,' [presidential adviser Moon Chung In] conceded."

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"The Fall and Troubled Rise of a Ukrainian Populist"

Sollte sich Julija Tymoschenko bei den ukrainischen Präsidentschaftswahlen durchsetzen, könnte dies direkte Folgen für das Minsker Abkommen und den Konflikt in der Ostukraine haben, schreibt Ian Bateson. "Tymoshenko has said that she 'didn’t accept the Minsk agreements from day one,' and that the negotiations had been carried out 'behind Ukraine’s back.' Trading on the fact that she is well known abroad and previously negotiated a gas deal with Putin as Ukraine’s prime minister, she has sought to convince voters that she can bring conflict with Russia to an end. (...) So far, Tymoshenko has stopped short of saying that the Minsk agreements should be scrapped — publicly, at least. Kurt Volker, the U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations, told me that when he met with all the major candidates, Tymoshenko included, they committed to maintaining the Minsk accords. Yet at the same time, two Western diplomats and the former representative of an international NGO, all of whom requested anonymity in order to discuss internal conversations, complained that Tymoshenko in private is more equivocal, leaving them guessing about what she would actually do were she elected."

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"The U.S. Is Running Low on Options to Force Maduro Out"

In ihrer Kampagne zum Sturz von Präsident Maduro in Venezuela stehen der US-Regierung nach Ansicht von Uri Friedman und Kathy Gilsinan nur noch wenige zusätzliche nichtmilitärische Optionen offen. "The U.S. could continue imposing sanctions, but their impact takes a while to be felt. (...) The Trump administration could impose 'secondary sanctions' on companies outside the United States that continue to buy oil from Venezuela despite U.S. sanctions, [Fernando Cutz, a former director for South America on Donald Trump’s National Security Council,] told The Atlantic, but those actions would be largely symbolic if American and Indian companies stop doing business with Caracas, leaving Venezuela with no 'markets to actually sell the oil to.' (...) 'We’re basically at a point where if you want to escalate this any further, it would most likely require military actions or covert actions,' Cutz said, but the U.S., its allies in the region, and Guaidó’s would-be government have shown little appetite for military intervention despite all the tough talk, particularly from U.S. officials."

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"How Thailand Became the World’s Last Military Dictatorship"

Eugénie Mérieau schreibt, dass Thailand heute genau genommen als letzte echte Militärdiktatur der Welt bezeichnet werden könne. "(...) Thailand has been through so many military coups that they almost have a business-as-usual feel to them. The reality of army rule in the country is that it is, in a political sense, thoroughly unremarkable, reliant on a familiar mix of repression and political control, with one key difference: It has the blessings of a powerful protector. (...) At the time, a few other military dictatorships existed in the world, notably in Fiji and Egypt. But Fiji held elections in 2018 — legitimizing Frank Bainimarama, the island nation’s military leader. The same outcome awaited Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi: Elections were held in 2014 and again in 2018, with the same result. Nowadays, the military-coup playbook revolves around holding elections within a year or so of seizing power, usually after carefully drafting a constitution. (...) Thai post-coup military governments rely on what the scholar Johannes Gerschewski calls the classic mix of legitimation, co-optation, and repression. Elites are co-opted, and pro-military civil-society groups, often members of the “bourgeois” middle class, support what they see as coups for democracy whose effect is to maintain the traditional social structure in which they enjoy a favorable position. For anti-military segments of the population, usually less privileged, there is immediate repression, resistance to which is muted by the memory of past bloodshed."

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"The U.S. and North Korea Are Back to Talking Tough"

Uri Friedman stellt in seinem Beitrag zum Stand der Beziehungen zwischen den USA und Nordkorea fest, dass beide Seiten angesichts des Verhandlungsstillstands wieder zu einer aggressiveren Rhetorik übergegangen seien. "The unmuzzling of the attack dogs on each side is a reminder that Trump and Kim are each contending with a hard-line faction at home that views the diplomacy they’re engaged in as a hopeless and dangerous endeavor. As Choe noted this week, Kim decided to press ahead with diplomacy in Vietnam despite the fact that military leaders are petitioning him not to give up his nuclear program. But it’s also a sign of the paradoxical outcome of a summit that was intended to dramatically defuse tensions between North Korea and the United States: Each side has come away with the recognition that despite all the pageantry, there’s a huge gulf between their positions, and with the conviction that exerting pressure is the key to getting the other side to come around to its preferred approach."

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"If Liberals Won’t Enforce Borders, Fascists Will"

David Frum stellt in seinem Essay zur Migrationsdebatte in den USA fest, dass eine Masseneinwanderung in der entwickelten Welt in der Regel zur Diskreditierung der politischen und wirtschaftlichen Eliten und zum Aufstieg extremistischer Bewegungen geführt habe. Angesichts des immer weiter ansteigenden Migrationspotentials in Regionen wie Nordafrika oder Lateinamerika müsse es darum gehen, das Prinzip der nationalen Staatsbürgerschaft neu zu stärken und das richtige Maß in der Einwanderungspolitik zu finden. "The question before the United States and other advanced countries is not: Immigration, yes or no? In a mobile world, there will inevitably be quite a lot of movement of people. Immigration is not all or nothing. The questions to ask are: How much? What kind? (...) With immigration pressures bound to increase, it becomes more imperative than ever to restore the high value of national citizenship, not to denigrate or disparage others but because for many of your fellow citizens — perhaps less affluent, educated, and successful than you — the claim 'I am a U.S. citizen' is the only claim they have to any resources or protection. Without immigration restrictions, there are no national borders. Without national borders, there are no nation-states. Without nation-states, there are no electorates. Without electorates, there is no democracy. If liberals insist that only fascists will enforce borders, then voters will hire fascists to do the job liberals refuse to do."

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"This ISIS Citizenship Case Could Set a Terrifying Precedent"

Krishnadev Calamur warnt, dass der Streit um einen möglichen Entzug der US-Staatsbürgerschaft für IS-Anhänger wie Hoda Muthana aus Alabama Präzedenzfälle mit weitreichenden Folgen schaffen könnte. "The government has 'denaturalized,' or revoked the citizenship of, hundreds of former Nazis for lying on application forms about their political affiliations, as well as other people who have committed immigration fraud. What is different in Muthana’s case is that the government has, in effect, retroactively stripped her of recognition as a citizen. 'That should be incredibly terrifying,' [Charles Swift, director of the Constitutional Law Center for Muslims in America], told me. 'If they can do this to Hoda, they can do it to anyone.'"

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"It’s Foreign Policy That Distinguishes Bernie This Time"

Zu den Herausforderern von Donald Trump bei den US-Präsidentschaftswahlen im kommenden Jahr wird erneut der unabhängige Senator von Vermont, Bernie Sanders, gehören. Peter Beinart schreibt, dass sich Sanders von den anderen bisher bekannten demokratischen Kandidaten vor allem durch seine außenpolitischen Vorstellungen abhebe. "What distinguishes Sanders is the same quality that distinguished him on domestic policy in 2016: his willingness to cross red lines that have long defined the boundaries of acceptable opinion. One clear example is Israel. (...) He’s produced videos that call Gaza an 'open-air prison,' he’s depicted Benjamin Netanyahu as part of the 'growing worldwide movement toward authoritarianism,' and, most controversially of all, he’s suggested cutting U.S. military aid to Israel. But Israel is only the beginning of Sanders’s sacrilege. He’s the only presidential candidate in recent memory who regularly describes the Cold War not as a heroic American victory, but as a cautionary tale. (...) he wants America to shun the quest for global supremacy that leads it to overthrow regimes it can’t control and to instead pursue a foreign policy based on 'partnership, rather than dominance.'"

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"Sunni Jihad Is Going Local"

Dschihadisten in Ländern wie Irak und Syrien werden sich nach Überzeugung von Hassan Hassan künftig weniger auf den Export der Gewalt in den Westen, sondern auf die Ausweitung ihres Einflusses in den sunnitischen Gemeinden vor Ort konzentrieren. "For decades, Sunni jihadism has been characterized by transnational terrorism, suicide bombing, and excommunication. These three pillars not only attracted the ire of American and European governments, but turned off many of the jihadists’ target constituents, namely Sunnis living in the Muslim world. Yet there are signs that Sunni extremists are changing their ways, drifting away from the global agenda that reached its apotheosis in al-Qaeda’s attack on the World Trade Center, and toward a hyperlocal one."

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"Germany Preps a Plan B for Trump’s Foreign-Policy ‘Zigzag’"

Emily Schultheis und Uri Friedman berichten über die Bemühungen der deutschen Politik, eine angemessene Antwort auf den außenpolitischen "Zick-Zack-Kurs" von US-Präsident Trump zu finden. "In many ways, the world order remains unchanged: The U.S. has not pulled out of NATO or formally called its commitments to the military alliance into question, and the transatlantic bond, while weakened, still consists of shared security, economic, and even cultural ties. Ask any major politician here, and they’ll argue that the relationship with Washington remains relevant and important. (...) But the dynamic under the surface has experienced a real change. At first, the hope remained that the president’s advisers could moderate his more impulsive tendencies. But one by one (...) those advisers have left — leaving German diplomats with few strong contacts in the administration (...). And though no one would say (publicly, at least) that they worry about Trump pulling the U.S. out of NATO, there’s a sense among German leaders and policy types that it’s difficult to trust the U.S. to uphold its end of the bargain security-wise — leading to a call for Europe to think about its own security and foreign-policy interests."

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"The Trump Administration Wants North Korea to Be the Next Vietnam"

Das nächste Gipfeltreffen zwischen Donald Trump und Kim Kong Un soll Michael Tatarski zufolge auch deshalb in Hanoi stattfinden, weil die USA Nordkorea am Beispiel Vietnams demonstrieren wollen, welche positiven Folgen eine umfassende Einigung bei den Verhandlungen haben könnte. "In Vietnam’s case, the country emerged in the 1970s from a two-decade war that left millions dead, urban areas impoverished, and huge swaths of the countryside doused with chemical defoliants. A decade of food shortages, economic stagnation, and international isolation followed. But since initiating economic reforms in 1986, it has become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, lifting millions of people out of poverty along the way. It is a major cog in the global trading network, and an important diplomatic and security partner for the United States in Southeast Asia. Though Vietnam has a pluralistic leadership model that eschews the cult of personality that Kim Jong Un, his father, and his grandfather built around them, it remains a closed political society. The country has a terrible record on human rights, and lacks a free press or any semblance of an opposition, issues that Trump has largely remained silent on and which may well appeal to Kim."

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„The Afghan Government Is Missing From Afghanistan's Peace Process“

Die afghanische Regierung spielt im aktuellen diplomatischen Ringen um eine Lösung des Konflikts im eigenen Land nur eine Nebenrolle. Krishnadev Calamur weist auf die historische Besonderheit dieses Umstands hin: "(...) efforts to resolve similar conflicts typically involve both the government and the main rebel group — even if, at first, the two sides are talking through an intermediary. That is not happening in this case. Kabul’s absence in this process is remarkable. It would be akin to George Mitchell negotiating directly with Irish republicans while cutting the British government out of the process that resulted in peace in Northern Ireland. (...) The government survives because of Western aid and military support; it controls a little more than half of the country’s districts; and corruption and ethnic divisions are widespread. The absence of the Afghan government in a peace process could send a message to the Afghan public about who is — and who isn’t — in charge."

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"The White House’s Move on Venezuela Is the Least Trumpian Thing It’s Done"

Uri Friedman hält die Venezuela-Strategie der US-Regierung für untypisch, da sie im Gegensatz zu anderen Initiativen des Präsidenten wie eine "geölte diplomatische Kampagne" ablaufe. Die Politik werde von Ratgebern Trumps vorangetrieben, darunter Sicherheitsberater Bolton, der Venezuela als Teil der amerikanischen Einflusssphäre betrachte. "Trump’s Venezuela policy has been carried out by a cadre of advisers who, unlike the president himself, either emphasize American values (Mike Pence) or advocate an interventionist approach to Washington’s enemies (John Bolton and, to a lesser extent, his predecessor H. R. McMaster). Bolton, in particular, has articulated a kind of neo–Monroe Doctrine in which Venezuela is of special significance because it falls within the United States’ regional sphere of influence. It’s 'in our hemisphere,' he observed on Thursday, when asked why Trump has punished Maduro while praising other authoritarian leaders. (...) The Republican Senator Marco Rubio, who has called for the Venezuelan military to overthrow Maduro and who brokered a 2017 meeting between Trump and the Venezuelan human-rights activist Lilian Tintori that helped steer Trump in a more hard-line direction, has also played an influential role in crafting the administration’s aggressive posture."

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"NATO Fears That This Town Will Be the Epicenter of Conflict With Russia"

Josh Rubin, früherer Mitarbeiter im US-Außenministerium, hat die Stadt Narva in Estland besucht, die nach Einschätzung der NATO zum ersten Ziel einer russischen "Invasion" werden könnte. "If you haven’t heard of Narva, you might very soon. This small, mostly Russian-speaking city lies along Estonia’s boundary with Russia, separated geographically from its larger neighbor only by a partially frozen river. (...) This city is also the epicenter of what could be an epic challenge for Western military alliances — what nato calls the 'Narva scenario' — one that would test the foundation underpinning the security partnership."

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"America Still Doesn’t Know What to Do With Terrorism Suspects"

Fast zwanzig Jahre nach dem Anschlag auf den US-Zerstörer "USS Cole" in Jemen habe die US-Regierung immer noch keine überzeugende Strategie für den Umgang mit Terrorverdächtigen entwickelt, stellt Kathy Gilsinan fest. "(...) the U.S. still hasn’t fully settled the question of how to bring terrorism suspects to justice — and the diverging fates of two of the Cole plotters show how the confused approach haunts U.S. national security. In the first case, Jamal al-Badawi, who helped coordinate logistics for the attack, was caught, tried, and incarcerated in Yemen, where he escaped prison twice and was finally set free before being killed in an American air strike this month. In the second, Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, the actual alleged mastermind of the attack, remains in legal purgatory in Guantánamo Bay — yet another pretrial hearing took place this week — in part because his confessions were obtained under torture. Their stories demonstrate not just the failures of some U.S. counterterrorism experiments, but just how difficult those failures are to correct."

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"What to Expect From Trump-Kim Take Two"

Uri Friedman erwartet, dass das für Ende Februar geplante zweite Gipfeltreffen zwischen US-Präsident Trump und Nordkoreas Staatschef Kim Jong Un im Hinblick auf die Denuklearisierung Nordkoreas ebenso ergebnisarm enden wird wie das erste Treffen in Singapur. "(...) seven months after Trump became the first American president to meet with a North Korean leader, boasting afterward that 'there is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea,' Pyongyang’s nuclear-weapons program remains at least as formidable as it was the day before Trump and Kim shook hands in Singapore. Even as North and South Korea have made remarkable strides in reconciling — demilitarizing parts of their heavily fortified border, for example, and exploring ways to connect their railroads — efforts to achieve the 'final, fully verified denuclearization of North Korea,' as the administration likes to refer to it, have gone nearly nowhere. (...) U.S. officials will spend the next month seeking to line up 'deliverables' for the summit. But there’s no accounting for what happens when their boss gets in the room with Kim Jong Un."

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"The Lessons, and the Costs, of Terrorism in Kenya"

Tristan McConnell erinnert nach dem jüngsten Terroranschlag in Nairobi an einen ähnlichen Angriff auf ein Einkaufszentrum in der Hauptstadt Kenias vor fünf Jahren. Die Sicherheitskräfte hätten diesmal deutlich schneller und professioneller reagiert. "The similarities to the Westgate attack are stark — four gunmen raiding a prominent city landmark in a bid to inflict as many casualties as possible while attracting as much attention as possible. But there are differences, too, for better and worse. Westgate was, in the end, defined by ineptitude and failures. The response was so slow that by the time security forces entered the mall, most of those shot were already dead. Turf wars between the army and police led to a botched rescue operation and a deadly friendly-fire incident. But on Tuesday, the army stayed away, and command was handed to a specialist paramilitary police unit that arrived quickly and worked effectively."

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"Unthinkable - 50 Moments That Define an Improbable Presidency"

Das Atlantic-Magazin hat 50 Artikel zusammengetragen, die sich mit prägenden Momenten der ersten beiden Amtsjahre von US-Präsident Trump beschäftigen. "This week marks the midway point of Trump’s term. Like many Americans, we sometimes find the velocity of chaos unmanageable. We find it hard to believe, for example, that we are engaged in a serious debate about whether the president of the United States is a Russian-intelligence asset. So we decided to pause for a moment and analyze 50 of the most improbable, norm-bending, and destructive incidents of this presidency to date."

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"Want to Cultivate a Liberal European Islam? Look to Bosnia."

Auf der Suche nach einem liberalen Islam für Europa empfiehlt Riada Ašimović Akyol einen Blick nach Bosnien-Herzegowina. "What is too little noticed (...) is that a tolerant European Islam has already existed for centuries — on the southeastern part of the continent, where Bosnian Muslims, Albanians, Turks, and others see themselves as fully Muslim and fully European. A 2013 Pew Research Center study shows that they’re among the most liberal Muslims in the world. For example, only tiny minorities of surveyed Bosnian Muslims, known as Bosniaks, think adulterers must be stoned and apostates executed, in contrast with large majorities in favor of both stances among Pakistani and Egyptian Muslims. The case of my people, Bosniaks, is particularly instructive. It shows how attitudes toward Islam can evolve over time and how its adherents — with the help of progressive theologians and intellectuals — can embrace modernity without abandoning their religious identity."

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"The President Who Wants to Break Up His Own Country"

Maxim Edwards schreibt in seiner Analyse der politischen Situation in Bosnien-Herzegowina, dass der serbischstämmige Präsident Milorad Dodik die Teilung des eigenen Landes anstrebe. "Dodik isn’t just fighting battles at home, either. While he supports Bosnia’s bid to join the European Union, he is opposed to the country joining nato, which decided last month to start a membership action plan for Bosnia. It’s no surprise, then, that Dodik is characterized in the West as pro-Russian, a label he flaunts. (...) Russia’s ties to Dodik need not be such a cause for alarm, argues Dimitar Bechev, the director of the European Policy Institute — a think tank based in Sofia, Bulgaria — and the author of a book about Russia’s role in the Balkans. In an email exchange, Bechev noted that Moscow’s influence over Dodik means the Kremlin also has the ability to restrain him."

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"Why Countries Aren’t Sanctioning the Saudi Government Over Khashoggi"

Westliche Regierungen hätten ihre Sanktionen nach dem Mord am Journalisten Jamal Khashoggi bewusst gegen bestimmte saudi-arabische Personen und nicht gegen die Regierung in Riad gerichtet, schreibt Yasmeen Serhan. Mit dieser Sanktionsstrategie könnten die Regierungen Menschenrechtsbedenken bekräftigen, ohne geopolitische Interessen zu gefährden. "Through the Global Magnitsky Act and laws like it, governments have been able to inflict reprisals against human-rights-offending countries by imposing targeted sanctions against those directly responsible for the abuses. (...) Targeting individuals directly, as Canada and others have done in the case of Saudi Arabia, ensures that those directly responsible for the crime face the consequences. And while such sanctions don’t necessarily result in conviction or imprisonment, they do hit targets where it counts: their wallets. Indeed, assets frozen as a result of such sanctions have totaled hundreds of millions of dollars. But perhaps most important, targeted sanctions allow governments to save diplomatic face. By going after specific individuals, rather than a broader government, countries imposing sanctions don’t have to worry about the political ramifications of the decision, nor of diplomatic reprisals."

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"The Beginning of the End of the Korean War"

Uri Friedman stellt fest, dass der Aussöhnungsprozess zwischen Nord- und Südkorea mittlerweile schneller voranschreitet als die Verhandlungen zur Denuklearisierung des Nordens. Die US-Regierung beobachte diese Entwicklung mit wachsendem Unwillen, da sie befürchte, dass Sanktionen gegen Nordkorea ohne entsprechende Gegenleistungen aufgehoben werden könnten. "Ultimately, Seoul views renewed military hostilities on the Korean peninsula as a greater threat to South Korea than North Korea’s nuclear weapons, argues Chun Yung Woo, a former South Korean national-security adviser who is a conservative critic of Moon. If U.S. officials grow 'frustrated with North Korea’s intransigence [on denuclearization] … and Trump runs out of patience — he can no longer claim victory, and he has no other option but to return to military options, maximum pressure — then I think there will be a rift' in the alliance, he told me. 'President Moon will be on a collision course with the U.S.' As James Acton, an expert on nuclear policy, has observed, 'You can be simultaneously optimistic about peace building between the Koreas and pessimistic about the denuclearization of the North. Big question, though, is whether the US can tolerate the former without the latter.'"

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"If Terrorists Launch a Major Cyberattack, We Won’t See It Coming"

Kathy Gilsinan schreibt, dass die ersten Warnungen vor einem verheerenden terroristischen Cyberangriff in den USA vor 15 Jahren laut geworden sind. Mittlerweile fragen sich demnach auch einige Experten, warum dieser Notfall bisher nicht eingetreten sei. "(...) a generation of tech-savvy jihadists has exploited the internet to attract recruits, share bomb-making expertise, and incite violence. Yet they haven’t managed to pull off the devastating cyberattacks that experts have long feared. With just days left before Americans go to the polls for midterm elections, it is worth considering: Why not? 'I’m as puzzled as you are,' said Michael Hayden, who served as CIA director from 2004 to 2008. 'These folks are not cyberdumb.' (...) Three main barriers are likely preventing this. For one, cyberattacks can lack the kind of drama and immediate physical carnage that terrorists seek. Identifying the specific perpetrator of a cyberattack can also be difficult, meaning terrorists might have trouble reaping the propaganda benefits of clear attribution. Finally, and most simply, it’s possible that they just can’t pull it off."

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"Why the Mail Bomber Wasn’t Charged With Terrorism"

Kathy Gilsinan erläutert, warum der festgenommene Verdächtige, dem der Versand von Paketbomben an mehrere Trump-Gegner vorgeworfen wird, nicht als "Terrorist" angeklagt worden ist. "In the United States, the most frequently used terrorism-related charge, by far, is for providing 'material support' to a foreign terrorist organization. Support can mean anything from offering money or advice to showing up in person to help a group that is on the State Department’s designated list of terrorist organizations. (...) For domestic actors without such connections, the law — and the intelligence community’s investigative powers — runs up against First Amendment and other civil-liberties protections. The U.S. government does not formally designate domestic terrorist organizations. So it may not be illegal to give money to a domestic extremist group like Aryan Nations, even if some members commit violence. (...) In effect, whether a suspect gets formal 'terrorism' charges or not, the justice system still allows for harsh punishment. Sessions noted that if convicted, Sayoc could face up to 50 years in prison. But the political discussion remains acute and divisive."

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"Khashoggi’s Murder Heralds a New Era of Impunity"

Die Reaktionen vieler Regierungen auf die Ermordung des Journalisten Jamal Khashoggi sind nach Ansicht von Uri Friedman Ausdruck einer "hässlichen Geopolitik". "In a world in which more nationalistic, narcissistic countries are locked in competition, human rights and the rule of law be damned, it is quite possible that those responsible for the journalist’s death will escape serious consequences — that Khashoggi will be the victim not just of his executioners, but also of a more cutthroat, coldhearted world. There’s been a lot of talk by U.S., European, Turkish, and Saudi officials about 'accountability' in recent days but, thus far, comparatively little holding to account of those who orchestrated the hit at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul this month. (...) For their part, Britain, France, and Germany have demanded that the Saudi government be more forthcoming about Khashoggi’s killing and taken to task for it. But while Berlin has suspended future arms sales to the kingdom, Paris and London — which send substantially more military equipment to the Saudis than Germany does — have yet to go that far."

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"The Caravan Is a Challenge to the Integrity of U.S. Borders"

In den USA gibt es derzeit eine erhitzte Debatte über den Umgang mit dem Marsch tausender Migranten aus Mittelamerika in Richtung der Vereinigten Staaten. David Frum erläutert die Argumente beider Seiten und meint, dass die USA trotz manch fragwürdiger Äußerungen des US-Präsidenten ihre Grenzen nicht einfach unkontrolliert öffnen dürfen, da sonst politische Folgen wie bei der Flüchtlingskrise in Europa drohen. "The theory behind the caravans — this latest, and its smaller predecessors over the past 15 years — is that Central Americans have valid asylum claims in the United States because of the pervasive underemployment and gang-violence problems in their countries. If that claim is true, that is a claim shared not only among the thousands in the current caravan, but the millions back home. A 2013 Pew survey found that 58 percent of Salvadorans would move to the United States if they could. The seven countries of Central America together have a population of some 45 million, or about the same as Mexico’s back in 1970, when the mass migration from that nation began. Things happen much faster in the 2010s than they did in the 1970s. When Germany temporarily suspended its border rules in August 2015, almost a million migrants surged into the country within the next four months. That surge continued into 2016. Its political effects linger still: It was crucial to the British vote to quit the European Union, to the election of a reactionary government in Poland, to the political revival of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, and to the collapse of center-left parties in France, Italy, Sweden, and Germany."

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"The Irony of Turkey's Crusade for a Missing Journalist"

Die kalkulierte Reaktion der Türkei auf das Verschwinden des saudi-arabischen Journalisten Jamal Khashoggi kann nach Ansicht von Krishnadev Calamur aus zwei Perspektiven erklärt werden: "(...) the countries in the region see Erdogan, along with Qatar, as the main supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood. (...) But Khashoggi’s disappearance and, if Turkish leaks are to be believed, death at the hands of a Saudi death squad inside the consulate is a chilling development. 'This must have sent shivers down the spines of dissidents from Egypt and from Gulf countries in Turkey because it [suggests] that they're not really safe in Turkey,' [Soner Cagaptay, who is director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute,] said. 'And that's why I think Erdogan has to find a way that whatever path the Saudis take to dig out of this, it becomes very clear that it won't happen again, it won't be repeated because that will hugely undermine Erdogan's design to maintain a lever against Egypt and GCC-bloc countries through supporting the opposition, predominantly by hosting Muslim Brotherhood dissidents.' (...) Erdogan’s (...) approach to Saudi Arabia is different. The Turkish president is a devout conservative Sunni Muslim and respects Saudi King Salman as the custodian of Islam’s two holy mosques. Revelations about the Khashoggi case are marked not only by their anonymity, but also by the fact that no senior Turkish officials has gone on the record about the case, and Erdogan himself has mostly been quiet, perhaps hoping that a neat solution emerges that allows everyone to save face."

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"Trump’s Counterterrorism Strategy Is a Relief"

US-Präsident Trump hat 21 Monate nach seinem Wahlsieg eine Nationale Strategie zur Terrorismusbekämpfung vorgelegt. Joshua Geltzer, der in der Obama-Regierung als beratender Sicherheitsexperte tätig war, zeigt sich "erleichtert", da er in dem Papier keinen echten Richtungswechsel erkennt. "What we have, then, is a counterterrorism strategy that seems to shrug at some of Trump’s political priorities while embracing the institutional memory and best practices built up under his predecessors. That is, the document displays the wisdom of the counterterrorism professionals who, despite the White House’s rhetorical excesses, remain focused on protecting Americans at home and abroad. (...) For that very reason, the new strategy raises the same big question raised by Trump’s 2017 National Security Strategy: Is it actually the president’s strategy? Recall that that document felt, by and large, like one that other presidents could have issued, with a focus on rising great-power rivals, an acknowledgment of the continued threat posed by terrorism, and a warning about mounting cyber-related dangers. It’s as if the speech that Trump gave introducing the strategy was written by someone else entirely."

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