US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

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16.09.2018

"America Needs an Entirely New Foreign Policy for the Trump Age"

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/09/shield-of-the-republic-a-democratic-foreign-policy-for-
the-trump-age/570010/?utm_source=feed

Peter Beinart ist aufgefallen, dass die US-Demokraten Präsident Trump in der Außenpolitik regelmäßig von rechts attackieren. Dies sei problematisch, da sich die Parteispitze damit von ihrer Basis und deren berechtigten Zweifeln an der interventionistischen US-Politik abwende. "Trump’s election — which followed anti-interventionist rebellions by Ross Perot, Jerry Brown, Pat Buchanan, Ralph Nader, Ron Paul, and Bernie Sanders — was a disastrous response to a legitimate and enduring discontent. The choice facing Democrats in the Trump era is whether to join a hawkish alliance that aims to suppress that discontent or whether to channel it in a progressive direction. Hawks will denounce any foreign policy that abandons unipolarity as defeatist, a harbinger of national decline. But the progressive activists remaking the Democratic Party suspect, with good reason, that the pursuit of global dominance has been not an alternative to national decline but one of its causes. If in the coming years those activists articulate an agenda for shielding the republic — in which the U.S. protects the dignity and freedoms of its people, grants other powerful nations deference near their borders, and works with them to the solve the common problems that plague humanity — they will not be retreating from America’s best foreign policy traditions. They will be ushering in their long overdue return."

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11.09.2018

"September 11 Spawned Nearly a Generation of U.S. War in Afghanistan"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/09/9-11-us-troops-afghanistan/569803/?utm_source=f
eed

Krishnadev Calamur lässt in seinem Zwischenfazit des 17 Jahre andauernden Kriegs der USA in Afghanistan auch Befürworter eines weitergehenden amerikanischen Engagements zu Wort kommen. "Supporters of the continued U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan have cited various reasons for it: that it remains in the national interest; that it is vital to prevent the resurgence of international terrorism; and that it gives the U.S. a geopolitical foothold in the region. Each of those arguments has its own counterargument (...). But Karl Eikenberry, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant general who was U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan from 2009 to 2011, and commander of U.S. forces there before that, said there is also a moral argument about why the U.S. should remain. 'That’s the one that should be debated the most. For 17 years, we’ve been telling the Afghan people — women, minority groups, and youth — that America will stay in the fight until there is a sustainable peace,' he told me. 'Because of the fiscal and geopolitical opportunity costs, it is not in our national interest to remain, and we can reasonably tell ourselves that we’ve done enough. But when we do pull out, we’ll leave behind unfulfilled promises and human tragedy for which we will be culpable.'"

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30.08.2018

"Why Technology Favors Tyranny"

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/10/yuval-noah-harari-technology-tyranny/568330/

Yuval Noah Harari, Historiker und Philosoph an der Hebrew University of Jerusalem, warnt, dass die fortschreitende Entwicklung von künstlicher Intelligenz und anderer umwälzender Technologien die Macht noch stärker in den Händen einer kleinen Elite konzentrieren und die Grundlagen der Demokratie gefährden könnte. Die Bevölkerung in westlichen Ländern spüre diesen Trend bereits. "In 2018 the common person feels increasingly irrelevant. Lots of mysterious terms are bandied about excitedly in ted Talks, at government think tanks, and at high-tech conferences — globalization, blockchain, genetic engineering, AI, machine learning — and common people, both men and women, may well suspect that none of these terms is about them. In the 20th century, the masses revolted against exploitation and sought to translate their vital role in the economy into political power. Now the masses fear irrelevance, and they are frantic to use their remaining political power before it is too late. Brexit and the rise of Donald Trump may therefore demonstrate a trajectory opposite to that of traditional socialist revolutions."

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29.08.2018

"Inside the Dispute Derailing Nuclear Talks With North Korea"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/north-korea-war-declaration/568603/?utm_source=
feed

Uri Friedman hat mit einem südkoreanischen Experten über die Gründe des gegenwärtigen Stockens der Verhandlungen über die nordkoreanische Denuklearisierung gesprochen. Als größtes Hindernis gilt demnach der Streit um eine formale Beendigung des Koreakriegs. "'The current stalemate comes from the difference between North Korea and the U.S. on which comes first': the belligerents from the Korean War proclaiming the conflict over, or North Korea disclosing the components of its nuclear-weapons program and permitting international inspectors to access them, said Moon Chung In, a special adviser to President Moon Jae In for foreign affairs and national security. (...) The crux of the standoff is this: The United States is insisting that North Korea prove its 'sincerity' about denuclearizing by offering a full accounting of its nuclear and missile program, accepting international inspections, and perhaps giving up a certain portion of its nuclear warheads early in negotiations, Moon told me. But North Korea insists progress on peace should come first, as it does in the numbered joint statement Trump and Kim signed in Singapore. The 'North Koreans are saying, 'No, we agreed on a new relationship. And a declaration to end the war in Korea will be the most important token of [the] new relationship,'' said Moon."

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25.08.2018

"It’s Time to Stop Talking About Terrorists As If They’re Diabolical Geniuses"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/asiri-al-qaeda/568459/?utm_source=feed

Angesichts neuer Berichte über den angeblichen Tod des Al-Qaida-Bombenbauers Ibrahim al-Asiri meint Gregory D. Johnsen, dass es an der Zeit sei, die Bedeutung einzelner Terroristen nicht länger maßlos zu überschätzen. "(...) Asiri is not unique. He is simply the name we know. Indeed, after residing in Yemen for more than a decade, spending much of that time on the run from U.S. drones, it is almost certain that he has trained multiple aspiring bombmakers to eventually replace him. That is the problem with personalizing the war against groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State: We inflate our enemies into larger-than-life villains who reflect our fears rather than their own capabilities. We did it with Osama bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki, and now we are doing it with Ibrahim al-Asiri. By talking about them as masterminds with irreplaceable skillsets, the United States projects the mistaken impression that if they could only be killed, the terrorist threat would be greatly reduced. Bin Laden and Awlaki are dead. Yet al-Qaeda lives on."

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07.08.2018

"Trump Goes From Threatening Iran to Threatening the World"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/trump-iran-tweet/566948/?utm_source=feed

Bei seiner Präsentation der neuen Sanktionen gegen den Iran habe US-Präsident Trump praktisch der ganzen Welt gedroht, stellt Krishnadev Calamur fest. Damit sei nahezu sichergestellt, dass die Sanktionen nicht den gewünschten Effekt haben werden. "Barack Obama’s administration succeeded in putting together coordinated international sanctions on Iran. Those restrictions sunk Iran into a recession and ultimately drove it to negotiations with the international community that resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the Iran deal is formally known. Trump’s sanctions, strong though they are, are unlikely to have the same impact, primarily because they don’t have the same kind of international cooperation."

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06.08.2018

"The Two Words That Made Saudi Arabia Furious at Canada"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/two-words-from-canada-just-made-saudi-arabia-fu
rious/566870/?utm_source=feed

Sigal Samuel erläutert, warum Saudi-Arabien auf die Forderung der kanadischen Außenministerin nach der Freilassung inhaftierter Aktivistinnen so gereizt reagiert hat. Nach Ansicht von Ali Shihabi, Gründer der Arabia Foundation, hätten beide Seiten die diplomatische Krise aus innenpolitischen Gründen provoziert. "[Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman] sees himself as managing an unprecedented and delicate reform process and doesn’t want outside criticism making it more difficult, let alone from allies who are beneficiaries of Saudi business, so he is very upset at the Canadians,' Ali Shihabi, the founder of the Arabia Foundation, wrote to me in an email. But 'both sides are playing politics here,' added Shihabi, a Saudi national who is close to the government. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has upheld a $15-billion arms deal to Saudi Arabia that was concluded by his conservative predecessor in 2014, yet now he 'wants to defend himself from criticism of that decision by grandstanding and posturing on women’s rights.'"

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05.08.2018

"America Is Addicted to Sanctions. Time for an Intervention."

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/when-sanctions-go-too-far/566771/?utm_source=fe
ed

Neil Bhatiya und Edoardo Saravalle werfen der US-Regierung vor, das außenpolitische Werkzeug der Sanktionen viel zu häufig einzusetzen. Der Fall Iran zeige, dass dies nicht nur zunehmend ineffektiv sei, sondern auch die Beziehungen zu den Verbündeten gefährde. "When the Trump administration left the Iran deal, the EU responded by updating a law that prohibited European companies from complying with certain U.S. sanctions. As a result, the United States did more than lose a helpful partner — it set back its own program. (...) Another major problem with the current use of sanctions: It treats them as an end in and of themselves, rather than as a means to an end. Sanctions are meant to induce adversaries to come to the negotiating table; when they achieve their goals, they should end. Attacking each and every foreign-policy problem with sanctions will make them more rigid and harder to lift. (...) Sanctions work best as narrowly targeted measures tied to clear demands — an approach most likely to lead to practical deals. Turkey offers a new test for Washington’s sanctions discipline. So far, the administration has outlined a very specific goal: Brunson’s freedom. Can it stick to that approach and lift the sanctions if they succeed? Or will it succumb to the momentum created by sanctions and tack on new goals, like countering President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s growing authoritarianism?"

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23.07.2018

"Trump, Iran, and the Dangers of Presidential Bluffing"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/07/donald-trump-iran-bluff/565844/?utm_source=feed

Uri Friedman schreibt nach den offenen Twitter-Drohungen des US-Präsidenten gegen den Iran, dass Donald Trump es mit diesen Aktionen bisher verstanden habe, als völlig unberechenbar zu erscheinen. Im Fall Nordkorea habe diese Strategie vorerst zum Erfolg geführt, sie bleibe allerdings hochgefährlich. "The North Korean case cannot predict what will happen in the Iranian case. But in a narrow sense it does prove that Trump is perfectly willing to issue harsh threats without following through. And, given the trajectory of the U.S.-North Korea relationship over the past year, that he’s perfectly willing to change course entirely. A year from now, Trump could be holding a summit with Ayatollah Khamenei, chuckling about that time he threatened him on Twitter with unprecedented destruction. Stranger things have happened in the Trump presidency. Yet there’s also the possibility that the Iranians, believing Trump to be a bluffer, misinterpret which moves will actually prompt a U.S. military response from an American president surrounded by Iran hawks, raising the chances of war. Or perhaps this new round of taunts simply serves to further drain the American presidency of credibility, and the gravity of the consequences won’t be clear for years to come."

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17.07.2018

"The Anti-Trump Hysteria Isn’t Helping"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/07/the-anti-trump-hysteria-isnt-helping/565373/?ut
m_source=feed

Danielle Pletka vom American Enterprise Institute teilt die weithin geäußerte Kritik am Auftritt von US-Präsident Trump in Helsinki, meint aber auch, dass dies letztlich nur Trumps Rhetorik betreffe. "(...) it’s Trump’s words that are terrible. His policies are, in the main, not. The United States has crushed Russia beneath escalating sanctions, pulled out of the dreadful Iran deal, armed the Ukrainian opposition to Putin, stood up to China’s theft of American intellectual property, actually bombed Syrian chemical-weapons sites, and increased defense spending. Sure, there’s plenty to dislike in Trump’s foreign policy, including his trade wars, his dismissal of allies, his toying with nato, and his Obama-esque desire to skip out of Syria. But his stupid rhetoric masks a mostly normal, if not always sensible or desirable, foreign policy. And Trump’s national-security strategy is at least coherent when compared with the incoherent global retreat embraced by the last administration."

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12.07.2018

"Canada Has Its Own Ways of Keeping Out Unwanted Immigrants"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/07/canada-immigration-success/564944/?utm_source=f
eed

Die Einwanderungspolitik der US-Regierung ist derzeit nicht nur in den USA hoch umstritten. Tony Keller schreibt, dass Kanada die Immigration sehr viel subtiler, aber oft kaum weniger strikt reguliere. Die weitgehende Verhinderung illegaler Migration sei die Basis für die breite Unterstützung der kanadischen Bevölkerung für die legale Einwanderung. "Canada’s immigration success thus far is not a liberal story or a conservative story — it’s both. If the country’s image appears to be entirely liberal, that’s largely because its methods of controlling immigration are simply quieter, subtler, and less obvious than America’s. It’s that commitment to policing immigration that has, paradoxically, sustained such high levels of support. (...) For one thing, the movement of people into the country has generally been so law-abiding and orderly as to be uncontroversial and barely newsworthy. Canada, unlike the U.S., is a country where nearly all arrivals come in through the front door, in the open, during daylight hours. (...) As for illegal and irregular immigration, Canadian governments from both ends of the political spectrum have worked — quietly — to ensure there is as little of it as possible. The unspoken underpinning of Canada’s otherwise welcoming immigration policy is a giant and assiduously maintained border wall."

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11.07.2018

"NATO Doesn’t Need More Defense Spending"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/07/trump-nato-defense-four-percent/564911/?utm_sou
rce=feed

US-Präsident Trump hat die anderen NATO-Länder zwischenzeitlich aufgefordert, ihre Verteidigungsausgaben nicht nur auf zwei, sondern auf vier Prozent ihrer Wirtschaftsleistung zu erhöhen. Peter Beinart hält diese Denkweise, die grundsätzlich selbst von vielen Kritikern Trumps geteilt werde, für falsch, da der größten Bedrohung der europäischen Sicherheit nicht militärisch begegnet werden könne. "The far larger threat to Europe is ideological. It’s rising authoritarianism. Poland is on track to meet the 2-percent threshold even as it eviscerates the independence of its Supreme Court. Russia exacerbates that ideological threat by supporting illiberal political parties, but the real driver of European authoritarian impulses is mass migration. (...) nato runs small anti-people-smuggling initiatives in the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas. But the migration crisis can’t be solved with planes and tanks. Europe can best respond to it by increasing foreign aid and intensifying diplomatic efforts so states on its periphery don’t collapse, and, when migrants do make it to Europe’s shores, by investing in programs that help them better integrate. (...) What American liberals should be saying is not that Germany’s defense spending is too low but that America’s is too high. Plenty of Democratic voters, after all, desperately want the kind of welfare state that Germans already have."

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11.07.2018

"The West Will Survive Trump"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/07/nato-summit-trump/564854/?utm_source=feed

Angesichts vieler Berichte über die Krise der NATO erinnern Richard Fontaine und Vance Serchuk daran, dass das Militärbündnis in seiner Geschichte bereits größere Herausforderungen überstanden hat. "Could this time prove different? Perhaps. But there are good reasons to believe that this too shall pass. At the very least, it’s useful to situate the current tempest within the context of past storms that have swept across the Atlantic. The point of reviewing this history isn’t to diminish the seriousness of the present rift or to encourage complacency. But it does offer an important corrective to the doom and despondency about the future of the West — increasingly heard among foreign-policy thinkers on both sides of the Atlantic — as well as the counterproductive amnesia that overlooks just how much we’ve already gotten through together."

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06.07.2018

"South Korea’s Ambassador Has a Message for All the North Korea Skeptics"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/07/ambassador-cho-south-north-korea/564359/?utm_so
urce=feed

Der südkoreanische Botschafter in Washington, Cho Yoon Je, hat Uri Friedman gegenüber den im Westen zuletzt überwiegend skeptischen Einschätzungen der Verhandlungen zwischen den USA und Nordkorea widersprochen. Der Prozess habe gerade erst begonnen und werde noch Zeit brauchen. "'We need to be more patient,' said Cho, in his first interview since Kim Jong Un’s meetings with the South Korean president in April and the American president a few weeks ago. (...) This assessment of Trump’s North Korea policy is not necessarily typical in Washington, D.C., where many have chided the U.S. president for granting Kim Jong Un the stature of a summit, and proclaiming the meeting a sweeping success while extracting only vague commitments from Kim. But Cho, in an indication of how top South Korean officials are processing the latest developments, evaluates the situation differently. What’s important in his view isn’t only the technical questions of how and when North Korea’s 'denuclearization' takes place, but also the political project of overhauling North Korea’s relations with South Korea and the United States. Looked at through that prism, the summit itself was a concrete achievement."

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02.07.2018

"No One Knows What Kim Jong Un Promised Trump"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/07/north-korea-nuclear/564287/?utm_source=feed

Angesichts der recht vagen Abschlusserklärung des Gipfeltreffens von Singapur sei völlig unklar, ob die jüngsten Aktivitäten in nordkoreanischen Atomanlagen einen Bruch der Vereinbarungen zwischen Donald Trump und Kim Jong-un darstellen, schreibt Krishnadev Calamur. "Trump and Kim first met one-on-one, with their translators, and then met with their top aides. No one else really knows what denuclearization commitments were made in that room, beyond the public joint statement in which North Korea 'to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.' If it was further specified in conversation how and when exactly this 'work' would take place, and what exactly it would mean to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula in contrast to just the North giving up its nukes, that is not currently public. It’s possible that the joint communique the two sides signed meant different things to each side."

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29.06.2018

"How Trump Could Sell Out Syria to Putin"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/russia-syria-putin-assad-trump/564173/?utm_sour
ce=feed

Frederic C. Hof vom Atlantic Council würde eine Einigung der USA mit Russland im Syrienkonflikt als "Ausverkauf" des Landes betrachten. "One could imagine Putin offering Assad a deal designed to restore him as the ruler of all of Syria. First, he would need to assure Trump during their upcoming meeting that Assad’s offensive in the southwest will soon conclude, and that he would send in Russian forces to enforce a de-escalation zone. In return, he would ask Trump to quickly move U.S. forces out of Syria, allowing him to declare victory. Once the Americans had put Syria in their rear-view mirror, Putin might offer Assad and the Iranians the right to occupy oil-rich eastern Syria, with an assurance that Russian and Syrian forces will gradually reclaim the southwest, piece by piece. President Trump might be tempted to take such a deal — a temptation worth resisting. A nearly four-year effort against Islamist extremism would be wasted, as undisciplined Iranian-led militiamen and rapacious regime gunmen occupy an area rich in petroleum and agricultural resources."

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28.06.2018

"The Trump-Putin Summit: What the Europeans Fear"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/why-europeans-are-worried-about-trumps-meeting-
with-putin/564020/?utm_source=feed

Die Europäer blicken dem geplanten Gipfeltreffen zwischen Donald Trump und Wladimir Putin mit einiger Sorge entgegen, schreibt Yasmeen Serhan. "It’s not the fact of the Putin meeting that has European leaders worried — they themselves meet with Putin on a regular basis. Nor is it the timing, which was anticipated given the president’s previous commitments on the continent. The problem is that they cannot anticipate what might come from the meeting. After all, Trump keeps displaying his predilection for keeping even the Europeans off-balance. (...) It’s this kind of unpredictability Europeans fear Trump will bring to Helsinki — perhaps to their peril. 'Europeans in general are apprehensive not because they fear an American president dealing with Russia in general, but they fear this particular president dealing with Russia when they don’t know ... his strategic framework,' Daniel Fried, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former U.S. ambassador to Poland, told me."

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26.06.2018

"The Mystery at the Heart of North Korea Talks"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/denuclearization-korean-peninsula-moon/562601/?
utm_source=feed

Ein Kernproblem der kommenden Verhandlungen zwischen den USA und Nordkorea ist nach Ansicht vieler Experten das unterschiedliche Verständnis von zentralen Begriffen wie der "Denuklearisierung". Uri Friedman, der seit einiger Zeit aus Südkorea berichtet, hat sich mit einem wichtigen Berater des südkoreanischen Präsidenten unterhalten, der einen Plan zur Überwindung des Problems entwickelt hat. "The North Koreans want proof of denuclearization in South Korea in exchange for denuclearization in North Korea, according to Moon, and that’s not all: They have said they want no more deployment of American nuclear-capable vessels and aircraft during training exercises with South Korean forces, a non-aggression pledge from the U.S., and eventually a normal diplomatic relationship with America. 'Here comes my own idea,' added Moon. (Moon is also a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul and often speaks in that unofficial capacity.) 'North and South Korea and other concerned parties should sign a treaty that declares a nuclear-weapon-free zone on the Korean peninsula,' prohibiting nuclear weapons, facilities, and materials in both North and South Korea. (...) Under a UN-backed nuclear-weapon-free zone on the Korean peninsula, Moon said, 'North Korea will not have nuclear weapons, [and] South Korea will not be under [the] American nuclear umbrella.'"

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15.06.2018

"Why Can’t Democrats Give Trump Credit on North Korea?"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/trump-kim-jong-un-summit/562934/?utm_source=fee
d

Peter Beinart kritisiert, dass die Kritiker des US-Präsidenten den Wert des Nordkorea-Gipfels in Singapur nicht anerkennen. Die Demokraten wollen es demnach vor allem den Republikanern "heimzahlen", da diese das Iran-Abkommen Barack Obamas ebenso heftig angegriffen haben. "(...) the Democrats are wrong. They’re not wrong that Trump proved a weaker, dumber negotiator than Obama. They’re wrong to suggest that makes the Singapore summit a failure. In their desire to prove themselves savvy and tough, Democrats are proving myopic. And they’re making themselves de facto allies of ultra-hawks like John Bolton, who may try to derail the Trump-Kim peace process, and revive the threat of war."

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08.06.2018

"The French President Has Described America Like a Rogue State"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/macron-trump-g7-trade/562421/?utm_source=feed

Mit seinem Auftritt auf dem G7-Gipfel hat US-Präsident Trump Uri Friedman zufolge auch Frankreichs Präsident Macron vor den Kopf gestoßen, der zuvor versucht habe, Trump auch auf persönlicher Ebene näher zu kommen. "At first he attempted to become Trump’s best friend. But now he approaches the U.S. president with a tone that sounds almost injured. And on Thursday he made perhaps his starkest statement yet regarding his concerns about where Trump’s policies could lead the United States and the rest of the world. (...) The leader of America’s oldest ally also stated that the U.S. needed to be persuaded to remain in the 'community of nations' — to stay not in the narrow confines of the Paris accord or the Iran deal or some free-trade agreement with the European Union, not even in the broader transatlantic alliance, but in the broadest dimension of the civilized world. The implication was that, left to his own devices, the American president might go rogue and defy both the values that bind his country with its allies and the international laws and norms that the United States, France, and other partners helped construct out of the ashes of World War II. But in the effort to keep America in line, Macron said, according to his own translation of the remarks, 'we must never sacrifice our interests or values.'"

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06.06.2018

"Trump Is Choosing Eastern Europe"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/trump-is-choosing-eastern-europe/562130/?utm_so
urce=feed

Thomas Wright betrachtet die Kontroverse um den US-Botschafter in Deutschland, Richard A. Grenell, im Kontext der neuen Europa-Politik der US-Regierung, die vor kurzem von Staatssekretär Wess Mitchell erläutert worden sei. "The main message of his thoughtful, well-written, and strategic speech: The United States views Europe through the lens of a strategic competition between Western civilization and a Russian and Chinese alternative. Mitchell effectively announced a pivot in America’s Europe policy away from western Europe and toward the East (his natural stomping ground) and the South. In fact, Mitchell criticized western Europe for failing to take strategic competition seriously, particularly on defense spending and confronting Iran. (...) In private briefings, multiple Trump administration officials have said they are adopting a new approach to the EU. Past administrations, they believe, have been too supportive of European integration, which has turned out to be a source of instability, they believe. The Trump administration would let Europeans make their own decisions. Yet the president has commented repeatedly on their politics, while Ambassador Grenell actively intervenes in their domestic debates and the Commerce Department tries to influence Brexit negotiations. Even setting all that aside, the shift in policy toward the EU is clear. At best, the United States is neutral; viewed less charitably, it is hostile."

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05.06.2018

"How Sanctions Feed Authoritarianism"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/iran-sanctions-nuclear/562043/?utm_source=feed

Die Geschichte von westlichen Sanktionen gegen autoritäre Staaten zeigt Peter Beinart zufolge, dass in den betroffenen Ländern in der Regel immer die Hardliner profitiert haben. Dies werde sich aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach im Iran bestätigen. "The academic literature is clear: Far from promoting liberal democracy, sanctions tend to make the countries subject to them more authoritarian and repressive. In 2009, University of Memphis political scientist Dursen Peksen found that, between 1981 and 2000, sanctions contributed to a significant erosion of human rights in the countries on which they were imposed. The following year, in a study co-authored with the University of Missouri’s Cooper Drury, he found that sanctioned countries grew less democratic too. The reason is that sanctions shift the balance of power in a society in the regime’s favor. As sanctions make resources harder to find, authoritarian regimes hoard them. They make the population more dependent on their largesse, and withhold resources from those who might threaten their rule. (...) In 2003, American leaders fantasized about a liberal, democratic, non-expansionist Iraq only to find that America’s own sanctions policies had helped destroy that dream. Now another Republican administration — led by some of the same foreign-policy officials — is spinning similar visions about Iran. The Iranians most invested in that vision warn that America’s policies are making it impossible."

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04.06.2018

"The Threat to Kim Jong Un Within North Korea"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/the-threat-to-kim-jong-un-within-north-korea/56
1950/?utm_source=feed

Das Atomwaffenprogramm in Nordkorea sei in der Bevölkerung über Generationen hinweg als Schlüssel zu Sicherheit und Wohlstand dargestellt worden, erklärt Uri Friedman. Sollte Staatschef Kim Jong-un tatsächlich auf das Programm verzichten wollen, könnte er deshalb auf internen Widerstand stoßen. "How do you pivot away from an arduous decades-old program, which you and your father and grandfather have lauded as the centerpiece of your country’s security and prosperity, without alienating a whole lot of people? As the Korea expert Van Jackson recently wrote, 'North Korea’s nuclear weapons program has birthed a large bureaucratic and elite constituency in Pyongyang — an entire nuclear 'industry' of scientists, engineers and warfighters, and a corresponding maintenance and supply chain. The resource and human capital commitment to North Korea’s nuclear weapons enterprise means denuclearization could generate internal enemies, especially if declared by an unproven leader,' even one who has proven ruthless in purging high-ranking rivals since coming to power in 2011."

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04.06.2018

"Cyberattacks Are 'Ticking Time Bombs' for Germany"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/germany-cyberattacks/561914/?utm_source=feed

Sumi Somaskanda vom Berlin Policy Journal meint, dass die pazifistische Tradition in Deutschland effektive Schutzmaßnahmen gegen drohende Cyberangriffe erschwere, da es immer noch großen Widerstand gegen eine spürbare Erhöhung der Verteidigungsausgaben gebe und offensive Cyber-Missionen nur schwer zum Selbstbild der Bundeswehr passten. "These tensions came to a head in 2016, when Der Spiegel reported that the Bundeswehr’s Computer Network Operations, an elite team of hackers, broke into a cellphone provider’s network in Afghanistan to access information on a kidnapped German aid worker. Some lawmakers considered this an offensive action, and objected that they were not informed. Last year, von der Leyen triggered controversy when she said the Bundeswehr’s cyber forces are, in fact, permitted to 'offensively defend' their networks if attacked."

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29.05.2018

"Why Europeans Turned Against Trump"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/05/trump-europe-iran-bush/561401/?utm_source=feed

Richard Wike erläutert die Ursachen des neuen Antiamerikanismus in Europa und vergleicht dabei die Bush-Ära mit der Präsidentschaft Donald Trumps. "The current round of anti-Americanism is taking place at a moment of anxiety about the fate of the U.S.-led world order and the relative decline of American power. Anti-American sentiments in Europe have often been linked to fears about expanding U.S. military power, economic clout, or the pervasiveness of American culture. These days, by contrast, Europeans seem less concerned about an unrestrained 'hyperpower' flexing its muscles around the world, and more worried about an America withdrawing from the transatlantic relationship. (...) So while Trump’s ratings resemble Bush’s from a decade ago, the tone of Europe’s critique is somewhat different. Whether it’s Iran, trade, climate change, or calling into question the value of long-standing alliances such as NATO, Europeans now regularly lament U.S. disengagement rather than an overreach of American power. Many see an America pulling away from the world order it shaped, the colossus at twilight, turning inward as other powers rise."

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27.05.2018

"How South Korea Pulled Trump and Kim Back From the Brink"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/05/trump-kim-summit-south-korea/561197/?utm_source
=feed

Dass es nach den turbulenten Entwicklungen am vergangenen Wochenende nun doch zu einem Gipfeltreffen zwischen Donald Trump und Kim Jong-un kommen könnte, sei vor allem Südkorea zu verdanken, schreibt Uri Friedman. "The story of how South Korea nearly managed to bring Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un together for an unprecedented meeting, and to help pull the American and North Korean leaders back from the precipice of war, is often told as if it begins with the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics in South Korea. But the tale actually starts much earlier — and it’s still unfinished. (...) [Chung In Moon, a special adviser to President Moon Jae In for foreign affairs and national security,] (...) told me that implementation of the inter-Korean declaration depended on the 'success or failure of the Trump-Kim summit.' And at the time he acknowledged success was not guaranteed. 'The U.S. cannot make North Korea surrender,' he said. 'We all know what we want from North Korea. But we do not know what North Korea wants [and] what Trump can give to North Korea.' These, he noted, are the 'variables in the equation.' Last week the variables did not resolve in South Korea’s favor, highlighting the limits of its control over the diplomatic process that it carefully crafted. But variables, by their nature, just might surprise us yet again."

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26.05.2018

"North Korea Wants to End up Like Pakistan, Not Libya"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/05/north-korea-pakistan-libya/561341/?utm_source=f
eed

Während die USA in den Verhandlungen mit Nordkorea eine Abrüstung nach dem Vorbild Libyens erreichen wolle, hoffe Nordkorea, dem Vorbild Pakistan folgen zu können, schreibt Dominic Tierney. "From North Korea’s perspective, the Pakistan model must look compelling. First of all, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons have successfully deterred India. The 1960s and 1970s were a time of humiliating military defeats for Pakistan, including the 1971 Indo-Pakistani War, when Pakistan lost 56,000 square miles of territory, which became the new state of Bangladesh. Nuclear weapons have essentially removed the possibility of a large-scale Indian invasion. (...) In addition, Pakistan’s nuclear capability led the West to handle the country with kid gloves. The United States provided millions of dollars of material assistance to guard Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile, including helicopters and nuclear detection equipment. Pakistan’s nuclear capability is also one reason why Washington continued to provide billions of dollars in military and economic aid, even though Islamabad supported the Taliban insurgency that battled U.S. troops in Afghanistan."

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25.05.2018

"Is the U.S. Bringing Europe and Russia Closer Together?"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/05/is-the-us-bringing-europe-and-russia-closer-tog
ether/561008/?utm_source=feed

Der Rückzug der USA aus dem Atomabkommen mit dem Iran hat Europa und Russland Yasmeen Serhan zufolge die unerwartete Gelegenheit verschafft, das gemeinsame Interesse an einer Aufrechterhaltung des Abkommens zu verfolgen. Eine darüber hinausgehende Annäherung sei allerdings vorerst nicht zu erwarten. "Though Europe and Russia now find themselves on the same side of the Iran deal issue — opposite the U.S. — it’s still a far cry from complete rapprochement. 'It’s short-term, circumstantial community of interest,' Mathieu Boulègue, a research fellow focusing on Russia and Eurasia at the London-based Chatham House, told me. Not only have Europe and Russia backed opposing sides in the ongoing war in Syria, but Europe also, along with the U.S., continues to impose heavy sanctions on Moscow over its annexation of Crimea in 2014. (...) Boulègue said these differences shouldn’t compromise Russian-European cooperation when it comes to Iran. 'This is the core of diplomacy,' he said, adding: 'It’s not because you’re not friends on one issue that you cannot be friends on another.'"

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23.05.2018

"Former South Korean National-Security Adviser: The U.S. May Have to Withdraw Some Troops"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/05/us-forces-korea-chun-yungwoo/560852/?utm_source
=feed

Der frühere südkoreanische Nationale Sicherheitsberater Chun Yung Woo hat gegenüber Uri Friedman seine Überzeugung geäußert, dass eine Einigung mit Nordkorea nicht ohne Zugeständnisse im Hinblick auf das Bündnis mit den USA möglich sein wird."(...) a top aide to former South Korean President Lee Myung Bak told me that South Koreans will 'have to live with' a reduction in American forces in Korea 'if that’s necessary and there’s no other way to denuclearize North Korea.' 'If we can make a deal with the U.S. on the basis of partial withdrawal — a drawdown of U.S. troops — that’s something I think we should discuss seriously,' said Chun Yung Woo, who served as national-security adviser to Lee — a conservative hard-liner on North Korea and champion of the U.S.–South Korea alliance — from 2010 to 2013."

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22.05.2018

"Saudi Arabia Hits the Brakes on Reforms"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/05/saudi-arabia-hits-the-brakes-on-reforms/560870/
?utm_source=feed

Mit der Festnahme einer feministischen Aktivistin in Saudi-Arabien habe das Reformer-Image von Kronprinz Mohammed bin Salman deutliche Kratzer erhalten, schreibt Simon Henderson. "What is happening in the kingdom? MbS may want to discourage any popular protests seeking additional social or political changes. (Over the weekend, one American official told me that the arrests reflected the prince’s personal style, even if his name was not publicly linked to them.) His reforms were always likely to provoke opposition from within Saudi Arabia’s male-dominated, hierarchical society, which follows a strict interpretation of Islam. The apparent need to arrest women activists suggests that MbS is having to rethink his grand plans. (...) Maybe the crown prince now believes that the reform movement he kicked off has spun out of his control. Or maybe he sees that he moved too fast, unsettling the old elites who now need soothing. Or perhaps his father advised him — or was told to advise him — that he needs to slow down."

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