US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

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"Will the Iran Conflict Break the West?"

Der EU würde im Fall eines eskalierenden Konflikts zwischen den USA und dem Iran wohl keine andere Wahl bleiben, als sich den USA anzuschließen, meint Mark Leonard vom European Council on Foreign Relations. Er erläutert, welche Iran-Strategie die Europäer seiner Ansicht nach verfolgen sollten. "The fate of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal could determine not only whether the world’s most combustible region descends into a nuclear-arms race, but also whether the Western political alliance can survive. (...) Europe’s ability to maintain support for the Iran deal in defiance of US pressure has surprised many. Even the British government has adhered closely to the EU position so far. But that could change. (...) To head off these risks, Macron is asking Trump to consider sanctions exemptions if Iran complies once more with the nuclear deal by curtailing its enrichment activities and opens the door to further talks with the West. (...) The Europeans also must persuade the Iranians not to overestimate their own power. (...) Finally, Europeans need to keep a close eye on the Persian Gulf. Even if they aren’t going to organize a joint naval force, they should be developing a de-escalation strategy in case the US or Iran provokes a confrontation. Organizing a naval conference that includes Iran could be a prudent first step."

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"A Tiananmen Solution in Hong Kong?"

China-Experte Minxin Pei warnt die Regierung in Peking vor einer gewaltsamen Niederschlagung der Proteste in Hong Kong. Im Fall einer "Tiananmen-Lösung" erwartet er folgendes Szenario: "For starters, Hong Kong’s 31,000-strong police force is not up to the task of carrying out such a crackdown. Not only does it lack the manpower; its officers may refuse to use deadly force. After all, there is a big difference between firing rubber bullets at a crowd and murdering civilians. This means that China would have to deploy the local PLA garrison or transfer tens of thousands of paramilitary soldiers (the People’s Armed Police) from the mainland. Hong Kong’s residents would almost certainly treat Chinese government forces as invaders, and mount the fiercest possible resistance. The resulting clashes – which would likely produce high numbers of civilian casualties – would mark the official end of the 'one country, two systems' arrangement, with China’s government forced to assert direct and full control over Hong Kong’s administration. With the Hong Kong government’s legitimacy destroyed, the city would instantly become ungovernable. Civil servants would quit their jobs in droves, and the public would continue to resist. Hong Kong’s complex transit, communications, and logistics systems would prove easy targets for defiant locals determined to cause major disruptions."

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"Europe and the New Imperialism"

Jean Pisani-Ferry von der Hertie School of Governance in Berlin hält es dagegen für unausweichlich, dass die EU auf den neuen amerikanischen und chinesischen Mix aus internationaler Wirtschaftspolitik und nationalistischer Agenda reagieren muss. "Europe’s challenge now is to position itself in a new landscape where power matters more than rules and consumer welfare. The EU faces three big questions: whether to reorient its competition policy; how to combine economic and security objectives; and how to avoid becoming an economic hostage of US foreign-policy priorities. Answering these will require a redefinition of economic sovereignty. (...) The solution is not to meddle with competition rules, but to give those in charge of security some say in the decision-making process. To that end, in a forthcoming paper that I co-authored with foreign-policy experts and other economists, we propose that the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security be given the right to object on security grounds to the European Commission’s proposed mergers or investment decisions. EU member states already have such procedures in place, and so should the EU. Finally, the EU must do more to develop its financial toolkit and promote international use of the euro. There should be no illusion that the euro will displace the dollar. But with the US signaling that it will use Wall Street and the greenback as foreign-policy instruments, Europe can no longer be a passive, neutral bystander."

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"Europe and the New Nuclear-Arms Race"

Der frühere Bundesaußenminister Sigmar Gabriel hofft, dass es Europa angesichts des drohenden atomaren Wettrüstens gelingen wird, Zeit für neue diplomatische Abrüstungsinitiativen zu gewinnen. "From the perspective of the US and Russia, a new nuclear-arms build-up in Europe would represent only collateral damage. But for Europe, it may bring dreams of a common European Foreign and Security Policy to a sudden end. If NATO were to launch serious discussions about the renewed stationing of medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe, Eastern European members – skeptical that Western Europeans (especially the Germans and the French) – would be willing to die for their freedom, would almost certainly follow the lead of the US. Meanwhile, Germany and other parts of Western Europe would likely experience massive political turmoil. Faced with this scenario, Europe must now try to apply some kind of brake to current development and gain time for negotiations, without annoying US President Donald Trump and making him likelier to leave the alliance. The debate must begin within the EU, which is not formally a negotiating partner on the nuclear-arms issue and currently is standing on the sidelines."

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"The Metamorphosis of Central Europe"

Der bulgarische Politikwissenschaftler Ivan Krastev empfiehlt, den Aufstieg eines oft fremdenfeindlichen Nationalismus in Osteuropa nicht nur aus ökonomischer Perspektive zu analysieren. "Many liberals are shocked by the rise in recent years of xenophobic nationalism in Poland and Hungary, given that both have made substantial economic progress since joining the European Union. But that simply means that Central Europe’s turn toward populism cannot be explained in economic terms."

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"Japan First"

Ian Buruma analysiert die "schizophrene" Gedankenwelt der japanischen Konservativen, die zum einen die USA bewundern und zum anderen darunter leiden, in der durch die USA installierten liberalen Nachkriegsordnung leben zu müssen. Donald Trumps "America First"-Doktrin werde von ihnen als Ermutigung verstanden, wie die jüngste Entscheidung zur offiziellen Wiedereinführung des kommerziellen Walfangs zeige. "In the age of Trump, America is no longer so dependable. This might at least help to concentrate Japanese minds on how to get on in the world without the Americans. But the US has also ceased to be a model of freedom and openness. On the contrary, it has become an example of narrow nationalism, xenophobia, and isolationism. Japanese nationalists need no encouragement to follow this model. If they do so, Trump certainly will not stand in their way. They will echo the worst aspects of contemporary America – and throw away the best of what the US once had to offer."

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"The War on Huawei"

Der Ökonom Jeffrey D. Sachs betrachtet die Verhaftung der Huawei-Finanzchefin in Kanada als Teil einer amerikanischen Strategie, die darauf abziele, dem Rivalen China den vollen Zugang zu internationalen Märkten, entwickelten Technologien und globalen Bankdienstleistungen zu verwehren. "Huawei is one of China’s most important technology companies, and therefore a prime target in Trump administration’s effort to slow or stop China’s advance into several high-technology sectors. America’s motivations in this economic war are partly commercial – to protect and favor laggard US companies – and partly geopolitical. They certainly have nothing to do with upholding the international rule of law. (...) The unprecedented arrest of Meng is even more provocative because it is based on US extra-territorial sanctions, that is, the claim by the US that it can order other countries to stop trading with third parties such as Cuba or Iran. The US would certainly not tolerate China or any other country telling American companies with whom they can or cannot trade."

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"Grappling With Globalization 4.0"

Der Wirtschaftswissenschaftler Klaus Schwab analysiert den globalen wirtschaftlichen Hintergrund der politischen Turbulenzen in vielen Ländern. Die Kräfte einer Vierten Industriellen Revolution haben demnach neue ökonomische Zusammenhänge geschaffen, die ebenso neue Formen der globalen "Governance" nötig machen. In der Debatte über diese Maßnahmen sei es wichtig, auf dem Unterschied zwischen der Globalisierung und der Ideologie des Globalismus zu bestehen. "Globalization is a phenomenon driven by technology and the movement of ideas, people, and goods. Globalism is an ideology that prioritizes the neoliberal global order over national interests. Nobody can deny that we are living in a globalized world. But whether all of our policies should be 'globalist' is highly debatable. (...) Globalization 4.0 has only just begun, but we are already vastly underprepared for it. Clinging to an outdated mindset and tinkering with our existing processes and institutions will not do. Rather, we need to redesign them from the ground up, so that we can capitalize on the new opportunities that await us, while avoiding the kind of disruptions that we are witnessing today. (...) Specifically, this task will require two things of the international community: wider engagement and heightened imagination. The engagement of all stakeholders in sustained dialogue will be crucial, as will the imagination to think systemically, and beyond one’s own short-term institutional and national considerations."

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"Germany’s Dangerous Nuclear Flirtation"

Wolfgang Ischinger hält die vor kurzem angestoßene Debatte über deutsche Atomwaffen für "gefährlich". Aus geopolitischer Sicht würde sich Deutschland als Atommacht demnach in eine Mattsituation manövrieren. "(...) a German nuclear bomb would damage the strategic environment in Europe – to Germany’s disadvantage. Russia would interpret German steps toward a nuclear arsenal as a direct threat to its own national security and would likely adopt military countermeasures. That, in turn, would make it even harder to pursue the vision of a pan-European order of peace and security, a core foreign-policy goal of all German governments since that of Konrad Adenauer. Moreover, a German nuclear ambition might jeopardize the delicate balance of power in Europe – including between Germany and France, for example – with incalculable consequences for the long-term cohesion of the European Union. (...) There are smarter long-term ways to bolster Europe’s nuclear defense than introducing a German bomb. For example, France might be willing to consider playing an extended nuclear-deterrence role, along with the roles of the US and the United Kingdom within NATO. (...) But these are, at best, long-term options. In short, no matter what Trump says, Germany will remain dependent on the US nuclear umbrella for the foreseeable future."

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"Liberal World Order, R.I.P."

Richard N. Haass hält das Ende der liberalen Weltordnung angesichts der Abkehr der USA von ihrer bisherigen Wächterrolle für nahezu unausweichlich. "It is increasingly difficult to speak of the world as if it were whole. We are seeing the emergence of regional orders – or, most pronounced in the Middle East, disorders – each with its own characteristics. Attempts to build global frameworks are failing. Protectionism is on the rise; the latest round of global trade talks never came to fruition. There are few rules governing the use of cyberspace. At the same time, great power rivalry is returning. (...) the weakening of the liberal world order is due, more than anything else, to the changed attitude of the US. (...) My point is not to single out the US for criticism. Today’s other major powers, including the EU, Russia, China, India, and Japan, could be criticized for what they are doing, not doing, or both. But the US is not just another country. It was the principal architect of the liberal world order and its principal backer. It was also a principal beneficiary. America’s decision to abandon the role it has played for more than seven decades thus marks a turning point. The liberal world order cannot survive on its own, because others lack either the interest or the means to sustain it. The result will be a world that is less free, less prosperous, and less peaceful, for Americans and others alike."

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"The Double Threat to Liberal Democracy"

Die liberale Demokratie im Westen werde nicht nur durch illiberale und populistische Bewegungen, sondern auch durch einen "undemokratischen Liberalismus" herausgefordert, der politische Handlungsoptionen und demokratische Verantwortlichkeit gewählter Politiker begrenzt, meint der türkische Ökonom Dani Rodrik. Die heutige EU sei ein Modellfall dieses Trends: "Bureaucratic bodies, autonomous regulators, and independent courts set policies, or they are imposed from outside by the rules of the global economy. (...) The European Union perhaps represents the apogee of this tendency. The establishment of a single market and monetary unification in the absence of political integration has required delegation of policy to technocratic bodies such as the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the European Court of Justice. Decision-making increasingly takes place at considerable distance from the public. (...) In the West, liberalism preceded democracy: separation of powers, freedom of expression, and the rule of law were already in place before elites agreed to expand the franchise and submit to popular rule. (...) Elsewhere, in the developing world, popular mobilization occurred in the absence of a liberal tradition or liberal practices. Liberal democracy was rarely a sustainable outcome. (...) Today’s developments in Europe and the US suggest the vexing possibility that liberal democracy may have been a passing phase there as well."

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"Why Is Japan Populist-Free?"

Ian Buruma erklärt, warum es in Japan im Gegensatz zu Europa und den USA keine rechtspopulistischen Bewegungen gibt, die den politischen Status Quo grundsätzlich in Frage stellen. "Contemporary Japan may have its flaws, but it is now much more egalitarian than the United States, India, or many countries in Europe. By remaining a country of, by, and for the middle class, where the most affluent tend to be discreet, Japan has avoided the dangerous politics roiling developed and developing countries alike. (...) the domestic Japanese economy remains one of the most protected and least globalized in the developed world. There are several reasons why Japanese governments have resisted the neoliberalism promoted in the West since the Reagan/Thatcher years: corporate interests, bureaucratic privileges, and pork-barrel politics of various kinds. But preserving pride in employment, at the cost of efficiency, is one of them. If this stifles individual enterprise, then so be it."

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"The Changing Geopolitics of Energy"

Die Schiefergas-Revolution habe zu einer tektonischen Verschiebung in den internationalen Beziehungen geführt, stellt der Politikwissenschaftler Joseph S. Nye fest. Nachdem viele Experten vor zehn Jahren noch vor der Abhängigkeit der USA von Energieimporten gewarnt hätten, scheine die amerikanische Machtposition nun längerfristig gesichert. "As Harvard’s Meghan O’Sullivan points out in her smart new book Windfall, the shale revolution has a number of implications for US foreign policy. She argues that the new energy abundance increases US power. (...) There are also domestic political effects. One is psychological. For some time, many people in the US and abroad have bought into the myth of American decline. Increasing dependence on energy imports was often cited as evidence. The shale revolution has changed that, demonstrating the combination of entrepreneurship, property rights, and capital markets that constitute the country’s underlying strength. In that sense, the shale revolution has also enhanced American soft power."

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"The Arab Autocracy Trap"

Sechs Jahre nach Beginn des Arabischen Frühlings habe sich die wirtschaftliche und politische Lebenssituation für die meisten Araber spürbar verschlechtert, stellt der frühere israelische Außenminister Shlomo Ben-Ami fest. Länder wie Ägypten, Saudi-Arabien und zum Teil Marokko steckten in einer "Autokratie-Falle", die erneute revolutionäre Umwälzungen fast unausweichlich erscheinen lasse. "Unemployment is rife in the Middle East and North Africa, where two thirds of the population is between the ages of 15 and 29. And throughout the region, regimes have closed off channels for political expression, and responded to popular protests with increasing brutality. The governments of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and, to some extent, Morocco, epitomize Arab regimes’ seeming inability to escape the autocracy trap – even as current circumstances suggest that another popular awakening is imminent."

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"The Case for Kurdistan"

Der frühere israelische Außenminister Shlomo Ben-Ami hofft, dass sich die US-Regierung vom "Trugbild" eines stabilen, demokratischen und föderalen Irak verabschieden und die Bildung eines kurdischen Staates im Norden des Landes unterstützen wird. "To be sure, the establishment of a 'greater Kurdistan' that includes all areas where the Kurds comprise a majority remains impossible. If internal Kurdish politics were not enough to prevent such an outcome, geostrategic constraints certainly would be. (...) As the experience in Yugoslavia showed, when ethnic or religious cleavages explode, the most effective path to peace may well be separation. And a Kurdish state has a real chance of thriving: an independent Kurdistan could manage to combine natural-resource wealth with a tradition of stable and pragmatic governance, thereby creating a sustainable democracy. This would amount to a win for pro-Western forces in the Middle East. Even Turkey may be willing to accept such an outcome. The US and Turkish governments agree on distinguishing the Kurds in Iraq from those in Turkey, for whom statehood is not an option."

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"Germany’s New Power of the Purse"

Die jüngste Verschärfung der deutschen Türkeipolitik deutet nach Ansicht von Mark Leonard vom European Council on Foreign Relations darauf hin, dass Deutschland seine wirtschaftliche Macht künftig verstärkt für strategische Ziele einsetzen könnte. "During the euro crisis, Germany deployed economic means for economic ends within Europe. But in its policies toward Russia, Turkey, China, and the United States, Germany has increasingly been using its economic strength to advance larger strategic goals. (...) Germany’s new approach to great-power politics has evolved incrementally, and in response to seemingly unrelated events. But even if Germany isn’t following a master plan, its core strengths have enabled it to leverage its economic power, use EU institutions and budgets as a force multiplier, and build international coalitions in pursuit of strategic goals."

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"Why We Need Political Islam"

Der frühere israelische Außenminister Shlomo Ben-Ami hält es für falsch, politische Islamisten auszugrenzen oder, wie von US-Präsident Trump angedacht, als Terrororganisation zu verbieten. Derartige Schritte würden nur zu mehr Gewalt durch radikalisierte Anhänger der betroffenen Organisationen führen. Eine politische Teilhabe von Islamisten wie in Marokko und Tunesien würde dagegen zu deren Moderation beitragen. "Where Islamist parties have been given space for political action, they have shown a capacity to take advantage of it, often advocating political participation as a superior alternative to violence. And, indeed, Islamist parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood, are engaged in legitimate political activities in several countries – activities that have often driven them to moderate their views. (...) Creating space for benign expressions of Islam in the public sphere is essential to defeat global jihadism. Only when the war against jihadism shifts from the battlefield to the political arena can Arab societies move toward a more secure and prosperous future."

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"What Liberal World Order?"

Mark Leonard vom European Council on Foreign Relations stellt fest, dass die vielbeschworene "liberale Weltordnung" heute selbst im Westen zu einem umstrittenen Konzept geworden sei. "This is not to say that the liberal world order is an entirely obscure concept. The original iteration – call it 'Liberal Order 1.0' – arose from the ashes of World War II to uphold peace and support global prosperity. (...) After the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, a triumphant West expanded the concept of the liberal world order substantially. The result – Liberal Order 2.0 – penetrated countries’ borders to consider the rights of those who lived there. (...) But now the West itself is rejecting the order that it created, often using the very same logic of sovereignty that the rising powers used. (...) In the months ahead, many leaders will need to make a bet on whether the liberal order will survive – and on whether they should invest resources in bringing about that outcome. The West collectively has the power to uphold Liberal Order 1.0. But if the Western powers can’t agree on what they want from that order, or what their responsibilities are to maintain it, they are unlikely even to try."

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"Ensuring Euro-Atlantic Security"

Der frühere britische Verteidigungsminister Des Browne, der Leiter der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz Wolfgang Ischinger, der frühere russische Außenminister Igor S. Ivanov und Sam Nunn von der Nuclear Threat Initiative schlagen in diesem gemeinsamen Beitrag einige konkrete Schritte zur Stärkung der euro-atlantischen Sicherheit vor. "The first step in acting to advance our common interests is to identify and pursue concrete, practical, near-term initiatives designed to reduce risks, rebuild trust, and improve the Euro-Atlantic security landscape. There are five key areas that such initiatives should cover. · We must reduce the danger of a nuclear weapon being used. (...) · We must reduce the risks associated with keeping nuclear forces on 'prompt-launch' status, whereby they are ready for immediate launch and can hit their targets within minutes. (...) · We must reduce the threat of nuclear and radiological materials falling into the wrong hands. (...) · We must reduce the risks of a military confrontation by improving military-to-military communication through a new NATO-Russia Military Crisis Management Group. (...) · We must reduce the risk of a mid-air incident leading to a political or military conflict."

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"The Siren Song of 'Strongmania'"

Weltweit seien in der Politik die "starken Männer" auf dem Vormarsch. Grund genug für Minxin Pei, Professor am Claremont McKenna College mit Negativbeispielen davor zu warnen, wohin autokratisch geführte Regierungspolitik mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit führen werde. Nämlich in den wirtschaftlichen Ruin. "One need look no further than Venezuela, where today’s economic meltdown can be traced back to the disastrous rule of populist par excellence Hugo Chávez. People loved Chávez’s social-welfare schemes, seemingly unconcerned that they were based on oil revenues and foreign debt. As long as the benefits flowed, Chávez was free to expropriate industries and otherwise discourage private competition. Unsurprisingly, economic diversification stalled, and when oil prices collapsed, so did the economy. This highlights a key reason why strongmen nearly always lead their countries toward catastrophe. After winning over voters with their apparent decisiveness and directness, such leaders capture enough authority to make quick decisions and demonstrate short-term results – thereby keeping voters on their side as they claim still greater authority. But decisiveness carries a high cost. With nobody checking their behavior, strongmen rarely account for long-term risks. In the end, the prosperity they promised never arrives, at least not for long. Instead, the economy usually ends up in ruins."

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"Who’s Winning the Middle East’s Cold War?"

Robert Harvey zieht ein Zwischenfazit des "Kalten Krieges" zwischen den beiden Regionalmächten Iran und Saudi-Arabien und stellt fest, dass Teheran im Moment scheinbar im Vorteil sei. Die Saudis hätten darauf mit einer aggressiven Ölpolitik und der militärischen Intervention in Jemen geantwortet. "(...) the long-term outcome of this cold war is not hard to predict. Iran and Russia can never be more than foothold powers in the Arab world. The Shia might be able to maintain influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon (through Hezbollah), but they will be unable to compete more broadly. Some 90% of Arabs are Sunni Muslims, and thus potential Saudi allies. The Saudis can afford to be more mature, and less suspicious than they have been. The US should take steps to reassure them – while never easing up pressure to improve human rights and implement political and economic reforms."

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"Springtime for Fascism?"

Ian Buruma meint, dass der Begriff "Faschismus" bei der Beschreibung aktueller politischer Entwicklungen im Westen überstrapaziert werde. Einer effektiven Bekämpfung von "Demagogen" wie Trump oder Wilders sei dies sogar hinderlich. "The problem with terms like 'fascism' or 'Nazi' is that so many ignorant people have used them so often, in so many situations, that they have long ago lost any real significance. Few still know firsthand what fascism actually meant. It has become a catch-all phrase for people or ideas we don't like. (...) As a result, we are too easily distracted from the real dangers of modern demagoguery. After all, it is not hard for Trump – or the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders, or Putin, or Duterte – to refute accusations of being fascists or Nazis. (...) Today’s populist leaders should not yet be compared to murderous dictators of the fairly recent past. But, by exploiting the same popular sentiments, they are contributing to a poisonous climate, which could bring political violence into the mainstream once again."

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"Do We Want Powerful Leaders?"

Angesichts der Kontroversen um den türkischen Präsidenten und die US-Präsidentschaftskandidatur Donald Trumps fragt Joseph S. Nye, Jr., welchen Platz "mächtige Anführer" in der heutigen Demokratie hätten. Letztlich komme es auf die politischen Institutionen an, die den Aufstieg bzw. die Machtfülle "narzisstischer" Persönlichkeiten wie Trump begrenzten. "In the early United States, James Madison and the new country’s other founders saw that neither leaders nor followers would be angels, and that institutions must be designed to reinforce restraints. They concluded from their study of the ancient Roman Republic that what was needed to prevent the rise of an overweening leader like Julius Caesar was an institutional framework of separation of powers, whereby faction would balance faction. Madison’s answer to the possibility of an 'American Mussolini' was a system of institutional checks and balances ensuring that the US would never resemble Italy in 1922 – or Russia, China, or Turkey today. The American founders wrestled with the dilemma of how powerful we want our leaders to be. Their answer was designed to preserve liberty, not maximize government efficiency."

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"Is Globalization Really Fueling Populism?"

Daniel Gros vom Center for European Policy Studies in Brüssel widerspricht dem Argument, dass der linke und rechte "Populismus" in den USA und in Europa vor allem von "Globalisierungsverlierern" befeuert werde. "(...) if these factors account for the rise of populism, they must have somehow intensified in the last few years, with low-skill workers’ circumstances and prospects deteriorating faster vis-à-vis their high-skill counterparts. And that simply is not the case, especially in Europe. (...) Calling the rise of populism in Europe a revolt by the losers of globalization is not just simplistic; it is misleading. If we are to stem the rise of potentially dangerous political forces in Europe, we need to understand what is really driving it – even if the explanation is more complex than we would like."

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"Roman Europe?"

Anatole Kaletsky schreibt, dass Italien in der EU angesichts einer zunehmenden Desillusionierung mit der deutschen Europapolitik eine zunehmend eigenständige Führungsrolle übernehme. "(...) where can a Europe disillusioned with German leadership now turn? The obvious candidates will not or cannot take on the role: Britain has excluded itself; France is paralyzed until next year’s presidential election and possibly beyond; and Spain cannot even form a government. That leaves Italy, a country that, having dominated Europe’s politics and culture for most of its history, is now treated as 'peripheral.' But Italy is resuming its historic role as a source of Europe’s best ideas and leadership in politics, and also, most surprisingly, in economics."

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"A Latin American Spring?"

In lateinamerikanischen Ländern kommt es immer häufiger zu öffentlichen Protesten gegen die verbreitete Korruption von Regierungen und Behörden. Luis Alberto, Präsident der Inter-American Development Bank, betrachtet die Demonstrationen als Teil einer positiven Entwicklung der Region. "Since returning to democratic rule in the 1980s and 1990s, many Latin American countries have been quietly working to strengthen their political systems’ checks and balances, from enhancing the legislature’s authority to analyze budgets and monitor spending to reinforcing the judiciary’s capacity to prosecute complex financial crimes. (...) These are the kinds of unglamorous changes that rarely generate headlines. Yet they are indispensable to building trust in public institutions – which in turn is essential to economic progress. (...) By and large, Latin America’s elected officials are getting the message and rushing to join good governance initiatives, such as the multilateral Open Government Partnership. It is time for the private sector, which has all too often tolerated corruption as an unavoidable cost of doing business, to take a stand as well."

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"Ending Blowback Terrorism"

Der US-Ökonom und Entwicklungsexperte Jeffrey D. Sachs hält die Terroranschläge in Paris für eine unbeabsichtigte Folge der zum Teil verdeckten westlichen Militär- und Geheimdienstoperationen im Nahen Osten, Afrika und Zentralasien. "Three steps are needed to defeat ISIS and other violent jihadists. First, US President Barack Obama should pull the plug on CIA covert operations. (...) Second, the US, Russia, and the other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council should immediately stop their infighting and establish a framework for Syrian peace. (...) Finally, the long-term solution to regional instability lies in sustainable development. The entire Middle East is beset not only by wars but also by deepening development failures: intensifying fresh water stress, desertification, high youth unemployment, poor educational systems, and other serious blockages."

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"Avoiding Conflict in the South China Sea"

Der Politikwissenschaftler Joseph S. Nye, Jr. ist sicher, dass die Territorialstreitigkeiten zwischen China und anderen Ländern im Südchinesischen Meer durch internationale Diplomatie und über Rechtsverfahren des United Nations Law of the Sea Treaty (UNCLOS) gelöst werden können. "The irony is that the US Senate’s failure to ratify UNCLOS means that the US cannot take China to ITLOS [International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea] over its efforts to convert reefs into islands and claim exclusion zones that could interfere with the right of free passage – a major US interest. But, because China has ratified UNCLOS and the US respects it as customary international law, there is a basis for serious direct negotiation over clarification of the ambiguous nine-dashed line and the preservation of freedom of the seas. With properly managed diplomacy, a US-China conflict in the South China Sea can and should be avoided."

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"A New Cold War Order?"

Michail Gorbatschow, letzter Präsident der Sowjetunion, warnt in diesem Beitrag, dass Europa in einem neuen Szenario des "Kalten Krieges" der große Verlierer sein würde. Die Erfahrung der 1980er Jahre lehre, dass diese Entwicklung durch einen ernsthaften Dialog beider Seiten verhindert werden könnte. "Promising signs are now emerging, though initial efforts have yielded only modest and fragile results: the Minsk agreement on a ceasefire and military disengagement in Ukraine; the trilateral gas agreement concluded by Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union; and a halt to the escalation of mutual sanctions. We must continue to move from polemics and mutual accusations to a search for points of convergence and a gradual lifting of sanctions, which are damaging to both sides. As a first step, the so-called personal sanctions that affect political figures and parliamentarians should be lifted, so that they can rejoin the process of seeking mutually acceptable solutions. One area for interaction could be to help Ukraine overcome the consequences of fratricidal war and rebuild the affected regions."

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"The Era of Disorder"

Richard N. Haass, Präsident des Council on Foreign Relations, ist der Ansicht, dass wir gegenwärtig Zeuge des Endes einer weltpolitischen Ära seien. Die neue Ära werde sehr viel ungeordneter und weniger friedlich sein, so seine Prognose. "This is not to argue that we are in for a new Dark Ages. Interdependence acts as a brake on what governments can do without hurting themselves. The world economy has recovered somewhat from its nadir six years ago. Europe is mostly stable, as is Latin America and an increasing share of Africa. There is also the possibility of pushing back against the new disorder. (...) But what can be accomplished is likely to be limited by countries’ domestic politics, the absence of international consensus, and the waning of US influence, which no other country is able to replace and few are willing even to support in promoting order. The result is a world less at peace, less prosperous, and less adept at meeting the challenges it faces than it was in the post-Cold War era."

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Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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Publikationen zum Thema

Coverbild Internationale Sicherheit im 21. Jahrhundert

Internationale Sicherheit im 21. Jahrhundert

Die internationale Sicherheit ist fragil und bedroht. Wie können und müssen demokratische Systeme ...

Internationale Sicherheitspolitik Cover

Internationale Sicherheitspolitik

Seit Ende des Ost-West-Konflikts hat sich die internationale Sicherheitspolitik deutlich verändert....

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