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22.01.2020

"The Cost of an Incoherent Foreign Policy"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2020-01-22/cost-incoherent-foreign-policy

Brett McGurk, der in verschiedenen Positionen für George W. Bush, Barack Obama und Donald Trump tätig war, beklagt, dass das Weiße Haus eine strategisch inkohärente Außenpolitik betreibe und damit den amerikanischen Interessen letztlich schade. Dies zeige sich besonders in der Iran-Politik des US-Präsidenten. "At bottom, Washington’s policy today is defined by incoherence: maximalist ends, minimalist means, false assumptions, few allies, all pressure, no diplomacy. The Middle East in turn is stuck on an escalatory ladder, and Iran’s proxy groups may prove even less predictable with Soleimani dead. (…) Strategy is about choices, priorities, and resource allocation. If Iran is now the priority, then Washington will need to recommit to the Middle East, strengthen its military and diplomatic position in Iraq and elsewhere, and make clear that it’s prepared to defend Gulf partners from Iranian reprisals. If Asia is the priority, however, then Washington cannot credibly pursue what is effectively a regime change policy toward Iran. (…) The current crisis in the Middle East should be a moment to demand a return to the most basic principles of sound foreign policy, with clarity in objectives and the alignment of resources necessary for achieving them. Objectives that cannot be met absent unacceptable tradeoffs, costs, or risks should not be pursued."

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17.01.2020

"Bashar al-Assad’s Hollow Victory"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2020-01-17/bashar-al-assads-hollow-victory

Trotz ihrer militärischen Erfolge im Bürgerkrieg sei die Assad-Regierung in Syrien heute schwächer als je zuvor, schreibt Lina Khatib vom britischen Thinktank Chatham House. "(…) though Assad might declare victory, he would do so as a bit player in the story of his own triumph. Through Syria’s travails, Russia will have risen to become the war’s most influential external actor, and Iran will have guaranteed its enduring influence in the Levant. The Assad regime will find itself less a partner than a client, its survival dependent on the support of these two external backers. (…) External actors are not the only interested parties to whom Assad will owe his political life. Throughout the conflict, the regime has had to rely on a large network of nonstate and auxiliary actors, some armed and some civilian, to circumvent international sanctions in business transactions, assist in battle, and perform state functions, such as delivering services where the regime has little access or capacity. These actors have profited from the protracted conflict, becoming ever more ambitious and powerful, such that now the tables have turned and the regime has become dependent on them for survival. These profiteers have become the de facto authorities that are performing the role of state institutions, but at an increasingly extortionate price."

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08.01.2020

"The New Anti-Americanism"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-01-08/new-anti-americanism

Die Umfragen zeigen nach Ansicht von Richard Wike vom Pew Research Center, dass mit dem Ansehen Donald Trumps auch das Image der USA gelitten habe. Die Zahlen seien ähnlich negativ wie zum Ende der zweiten Amtszeit von George W. Bush, jedoch mit unterschiedlichen Vorzeichen: "When anti-Americanism reached its high point during the Bush administration, the United States was seen as an unchecked superpower, unilaterally pursuing its interests, and unconstrained by the international norms and institutions it had played the lead role in constructing. In the Trump era, by contrast, critics are less concerned about the exercise of unrivaled U.S. power than they are about a U.S. retreat — from both global leadership and liberal democracy. (…) Gone are the days when critics assailed the United States for trying to be the world’s policeman. Now they worry about a disengaged superpower thinking only of 'America first.'"

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30.12.2019

"Is a New Nuclear Age Upon Us?"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-12-30/new-nuclear-age-upon-us

Die beiden Politikwissenschaftler Nicholas L. Miller und Vipin Narang fürchten, dass 2019 angesichts des unaufhaltsam wirkenden Kollapses der internationalen Rüstungskontrolle als negativer Wendepunkt des Atomzeitalters in die Geschichte eingehen könnte. "Over the past year, Washington has not only faced nuclear crises with North Korea, Russia, and Iran, as predicted; it has also watched as nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan stumbled to the brink of all-out war and a host of U.S. allies began to rethink their nuclear options. Unless governments in Washington and elsewhere act quickly to reverse course, future scholars may look back on 2019 as the turning point from an era of relative calm to one of intense nuclear competition and proliferation — the dawn of a dangerous new nuclear age. At the top of a long list of worrying developments is the heightened risk of a nuclear arms race between Washington and its most powerful rivals."

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03.12.2019

"Trump Didn’t Shrink U.S. Military Commitments Abroad — He Expanded Them"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-12-03/trump-didnt-shrink-us-military-commitments-abroad-he-e
xpanded-them

Paul MacDonald und Joseph Parent werfen US-Präsident Trump vor, von seinem Versprechen einer Reduzierung der militärischen Einsätze und Verpflichtungen der USA im Ausland abgerückt zu sein. "(…) when it came to troop deployments and other overseas defense commitments, he largely preserved the chessboard he inherited — promises to the contrary be damned. The clearest measure of Trump’s retrenchment efforts, or lack thereof, is foreign troop deployments. In the final months of Obama’s presidency, approximately 198,000 active duty U.S. military personnel were deployed overseas, according to the Pentagon’s Defense Manpower Data Center. By comparison, the most recent figure for the Trump administration is 174,000 active duty troops. But even that difference reflects an accounting trick. Beginning in December 2017, the Defense Department started excluding troops deployed to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria from its official reports, citing a vague need to 'protect our forces.' When the estimated troop levels for those three countries are added back in, the current total is around 194,000 — roughly equivalent to the number Trump inherited."

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19.11.2019

"The Case for a National Security Budget"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-11-19/case-national-security-budget

Angesichts der Militarisierung der US-Außenpolitik sprechen sich Brett Rosenberg und Jake Sullivan für die Einführung eines neuen "Haushalts der Nationalen Sicherheit" aus, der nicht mehr nur dem Pentagon zugutekommen würde. "It has become ordinary, even orthodoxy, for national security professionals to lament how the underfunding of civilian tools has fueled an overmilitarized foreign policy that is ill-equipped to take on today’s most pressing challenges. As James Mattis, then the commander of U.S. Central Command, put it in 2013: 'If you don’t fund the State Department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition.' Unfortunately, this rhetorical consensus has not produced the necessary rebalance in resources. (…) A common reaction today, including among a number of the Democratic presidential candidates, is to demand cuts in defense spending. This is a logical argument. (...) But simply cutting Pentagon funding is not sufficient to address the persistent overreliance on the military (…).The United States should move toward a unified national security budget, which directly links funding decisions to a comprehensive National Security Strategy (NSS) and distributes resources to whichever department or agency can best get the job done."

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07.11.2019

"America’s Original Identity Politics"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2019-11-07/americas-original-identity-politics

Charles King kritisiert die Konzeption des Nationalismus im Buch "The Case for Nationalism: How It Made Us Powerful, United, and Free" von Rich Lowry dagegen als "fehlerhaft". "The problem with nationalism, the British historian Eric Hobsbawm once wrote, is that it requires too much belief in what isn’t so. Lowry’s claims rest on a maddening evasiveness when it comes to definitions. At times he uses the word 'nation' to refer to a social group. At other times the word stands for a sovereign country or for the institutions and practices of a state. This slipperiness allows Lowry to make the strangest arguments, which collapse upon the slightest interrogation. (…) Lowry is eager to make the case for American exceptionalism, but his book is ample evidence against it. His nationalism is essentially that of every other contemporary demagogue — Viktor Orban, Jair Bolsonaro, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Rodrigo Duterte, and Donald J. Trump — repackaged as radical truth-telling."

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31.10.2019

"Russia, the Indispensable Nation in the Middle East"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2019-10-31/russia-indispensable-nation-middle-east

Eugene B. Rumer betrachtet den Aufstieg Russlands zur neuen "unverzichtbaren Nation" im Nahen Osten als Rückkehr zur historischen Normalität. "The reemergence of Russia as a major power broker in the Middle East is striking not only in contrast with the United States’ erratic posture in the region but because for a quarter century after the Cold War, Russia had been absent from the region. But Russia’s absence, and not its return, is the anomaly. For centuries, Russia fought Turkey, England, and France for access to the Mediterranean, to protect fellow Christians under the Ottoman rule, and to secure a foothold in the Holy Land. For most of the post–World War II era, the Soviet Union was a major force in the Middle East. (…) From Moscow’s perspective, getting back into the power politics of the Middle East was a sensible, even necessary, move in 2015. The Assad regime was Russia’s last remaining client in the region — one with which it had been in business for half a century. (…) Russia’s retreat from the world stage in the 1990s was so complete that the mere fact of its military operation in Syria overshadowed the relatively modest and conservative scale of the endeavor. (…) From Moscow’s perspective, the Syrian operation was a success. It was hardly the quagmire some had predicted, and it did not cost Russia a lot in blood or treasure. Rather, the intervention restored Russia to a position of prominence in the Middle East."

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15.10.2019

"Let Russia Be Russia - The Case for a More Pragmatic Approach to Moscow"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2019-10-15/let-russia-be-russia

Thomas Graham vom Council on Foreign Relations plädiert dagegen aus amerikanischer Perspektive für einen pragmatischen Umgang mit Russland. "Even if its relative power declines, Russia will remain a key player in the global arena thanks to its large nuclear arsenal, natural resources, geographic centrality in Eurasia, UN Security Council veto, and highly skilled population. Cooperating with Russia is essential to grappling with critical global challenges such as climate change, nuclear proliferation, and terrorism. (…) the proposed mix of accommodation and resistance takes into account the hard realities of Russian interests and American power. This approach stands in sharp contrast to the ones U.S. administrations have pursued since the end of the Cold War, which misread Russia and refused to recognize U.S. limitations. In many ways, this strategy would represent a return to the tradition of U.S. foreign policy before the end of the Cold War. That grand tradition was forward-looking, pursuing foreign policy with patience over time and satisfied in the short term with incremental gains. The United States did not fear making accommodations with Moscow because it was confident in its values and its future, aware of its great power but mindful of its limitations and respectful of its rival’s power. This subtle understanding marked the strategies that all U.S. Cold War–era presidents pursued to master the challenge from Moscow. By recapturing the virtues of its past, the United States can master that challenge again today."

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15.10.2019

"War Is Not Over - What the Optimists Get Wrong About Conflict"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-10-15/war-not-over

Tanisha M. Fazal und Paul Poast von der University of Minnesota widersprechen optimistischen Analysen, die trotz aktueller internationaler Konflikte darauf hinweisen, dass Krieg und Gewalt in der heutigen Zeit aus empirischer Sicht immer mehr abnehmen. "If this sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Such optimism is built on shaky foundations. The idea that humanity is past the era of war is based on flawed measures of war and peace; if anything, the right indicators point to the worrying opposite conclusion. And the anarchic nature of international politics means that the possibility of another major conflagration is ever present. The notion that war is in terminal decline is based, at its core, on two insights. First, far fewer people die in battle nowadays than in the past, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of the world population. (…) Then there is the fact that there has not been a world war since 1945. (…) Taken together, these two points — fewer and fewer battle deaths and no more continent-spanning wars — form a picture of a world increasingly at peace. Unfortunately, both rest on faulty statistics and distort our understanding of what counts as war. (…) overconfidence about the decline of war may lead states to underestimate how dangerously and quickly any clashes can escalate, with potentially disastrous consequences. It would not be the first time: the European powers that started World War I all set out to wage limited preventive wars, only to be locked into a regional conflagration. (…) A false sense of security could lead today’s leaders to repeat those mistakes."

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15.10.2019

"Nowhere to Go - How Governments in the Americas Are Bungling the Migration Crisis"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2019-10-15/nowhere-go

Die westliche Hemisphäre stehe heute vor einer ähnlich schwerwiegenden Flüchtlingskrise wie Europa im Jahr 2015, meint Alexander Betts. Die Regierungen der betroffenen lateinamerikanischen Staaten wiederholten dabei die europäischen Fehler. "In 2015, over 1.2 million asylum seekers arrived in the European Union. (…) The political consequences changed Europe forever. The Western Hemisphere now faces a migration crisis on a similar scale, with consequences that will likely be just as far-reaching. So far, this crisis has received a piecemeal treatment. Central American migrants arriving at the U.S.-Mexican border, Venezuelans crossing dry plains into Colombia, Bolivians seeking work in Argentina and Chile — these are treated as separate phenomena but are in fact part of the same underlying set of problems. To avoid the kind of human and political toll that the migration crisis produced in Europe, political leaders and policymakers must treat this new situation holistically and learn from past examples. Already, policymakers in the United States and elsewhere in the Americas are repeating European mistakes."

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14.10.2019

"The Demolition of U.S. Diplomacy"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-10-14/demolition-us-diplomacy

William J. Burns von der Carnegie Endowment for International Peace kritisiert den Umgang des US-Präsidenten mit Karriere-Diplomaten wie der im vergangenen Mai entlassenen US-Botschafterin in der Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch. Trump erwarte absolute Loyalität und betreibe dabei einen "neuen McCarthyismus". "Almost 70 years ago, in the early years of the Cold War, Senator Joseph McCarthy conducted a savage campaign against 'disloyalty' in the State Department. Partisan investigators, untethered to evidence or ethics, forced out 81 department employees in the first half of the 1950s. (...) That Senator McCarthy’s chief counsel, Roy Cohn, was also Donald Trump’s lawyer and mentor is one of history’s sad ironies. Trump’s scorched-earth tactics, casual relationship with truth, and contempt for career public service bear more than a passing resemblance to the playbook that Cohn wrote for McCarthy."

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10.10.2019

"The End of Asylum"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-10-10/end-asylum

Nach Ansicht von Nanjala Nyabola ist es nur noch eine Frage der Zeit, wann sich die liberale Weltordnung vom bisher geltenden Prinzip des Asylrechts verabschieden wird. "Around the world, rich and poor countries alike are pulling up their drawbridges, slashing the number of refugees they are willing to accept, and denying asylum to those who might have been admitted in the past. Europe, for instance, sank to a new nadir in the summer of 2019 by criminalizing rescue in the Mediterranean, allowing preventable deaths at sea, and forcibly returning vulnerable people to torture and indefinite detention in Libya. In Africa, Asia, and South America, the mood is much the same. (...) Both of the ideas embedded in the historical definition of asylum — inviolability and protection — are under attack as never before. (...) Few political leaders anywhere in the world are willing to defend the inviolability of the right to asylum. And this is how asylum will end — in a low boil of ambivalence that will eventually consume this foundational principle of the liberal order."

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07.10.2019

"Obama’s Idealists - American Power in Theory and Practice"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2019-10-07/obamas-idealists

Peter Beinart hat sich die Memoiren von Susan Rice, Samantha Power und Ben Rhodes angesehen, die während der Amtszeit von Barack Obama zu den engsten Mitarbeitern des US-Präsidenten gehörten. Alle drei Bücher handelten in gewisser Weise vom Niedergang der amerikanischen Macht und der amerikanischen Ausnahmestellung, so Beinart. "In different ways, each book traces a narrative arc that begins with a vow, made in young adulthood, to use the United States’ might for good and ends with a sober realization about how hard fulfilling that vow actually is. (...) In each book, three moments during the Obama administration play outsize roles in chastening this youthful idealism: the decision to bomb Libya in 2011, the decision not to bomb Syria in 2013, and the 2016 election. (...) Perhaps it is fitting that in memoirs that describe the many constraints under which the Obama administration labored, Rice, Power, and Rhodes manifest those constraints themselves by failing to challenge one of the most politically treacherous, and least morally defensible, aspects of American foreign policy. This too, evidently, is part of what Power, in her book’s title, calls 'the education of an idealist.'"

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02.10.2019

"The Unwanted Wars - Why the Middle East Is More Combustible Than Ever"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2019-10-02/unwanted-wars

Zahlreiche Konfliktherde im Nahen Osten seien mittlerweile stark miteinander verwoben, schreibt Robert Malley von der International Crisis Group. Das Ergebnis könnte ein katastrophaler regionaler Krieg sein, den keiner wirklich will. "Because any development anywhere in the region can have ripple effects everywhere, narrowly containing a crisis is fast becoming an exercise in futility. (...) The Middle East has become the world’s most polarized region and, paradoxically, its most integrated. That combination — along with weak state structures, powerful nonstate actors, and multiple transitions occurring almost simultaneously — also makes the Middle East the world’s most volatile region. It further means that as long as its regional posture remains as it is, the United States will be just one poorly timed or dangerously aimed Houthi drone strike, or one particularly effective Israeli operation against a Shiite militia, away from its next costly regional entanglement."

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16.09.2019

"Coming Soon to the United Nations: Chinese Leadership and Authoritarian Values"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-09-16/coming-soon-united-nations-chinese-leadership-an
d-authoritarian-values

Kristine Lee erwartet, dass China den Rückzug der USA aus den UN-Institutionen nutzen wird, um den eigenen Führungsanspruch in den Vordergrund zu stellen. "The United States has let go of the wheel, and Beijing stands poised to take hold of it. Eager to expand its influence on the world stage in ways that serve its interests, China has placed considerable resources behind an effort to present its leadership at the UN as a nimbler, more dynamic alternative to that of the United States. In the past few years alone, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has positioned its officials to head up four of the UN’s 15 specialized agencies, while the United States leads only one. It has also advanced more than two dozen memorandums of understanding in support of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and mobilized a consortium of illiberal states to tamp down international criticism of its repression of ethnic Uighurs in Xinjiang Province."

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09.09.2019

"How an Alliance System Withers"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-09-09/how-alliance-system-withers

Die andauernde Krise zwischen den beiden US-Verbündeten Japan und Südkorea werde in Washington bisher sträflich vernachlässigt, stellen Bonnie S. Glaser und Oriana Skylar Mastro fest. Dies habe China die Gelegenheit verschafft, eine Vermittlerrolle einzunehmen. "At a trilateral summit with the Japanese and South Korean foreign ministers in late August, for instance, China encouraged the two sides to at least put aside their differences long enough to make progress on a trilateral trade deal. This should give Washington pause. If, in the years ahead, the U.S. alliance system collapses, it is moments like this that will mark the beginning of the end: moments when Beijing, long intent on breaking U.S. alliances in Asia, proved more capable of managing and reinforcing regional order than a distracted United States."

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03.09.2019

"Plan B in Venezuela"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2019-09-03/plan-b-venezuela

Michael J. Camilleri meint dagegen, dass die US-Regierung ihr "maximalistisches" Ziel eines Sturzes der Maduro-Regierung in Venezuela aufgeben und realistischere Ziele verfolgen sollte. "Rather than clinging to the fading hope that pressure alone will topple Maduro, Washington should reorient both its sanctions policy and its diplomatic engagement around the search for a negotiated pathway to elections. At the same time, it must reckon far more seriously with the humanitarian dimensions of Venezuela’s crisis — including the damage done by U.S. sanctions. (...) Sanctions still have an important role to play, and they provide Guaidó with his best source of leverage. But the United States must calibrate its sanctions policy more closely to its diplomatic agenda. (...) For negotiations to be viable, the White House must be willing to swallow some bitter pills and even to incur the displeasure of the Guaidó coalition and Congress. Acknowledging Maduro as Venezuela’s de facto leader, even if Guaidó is the country’s legitimate leader, will be particularly difficult to stomach. But if there is to be any hope that talks will lead to democratic elections, Maduro must be allowed a seat at the table and a potential role in the transition, provided his powers are sufficiently constrained."

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20.08.2019

"History Repeats Itself in Zimbabwe"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/africa/2019-08-20/history-repeats-itself-zimbabwe

Zwei Jahre nach dem erzwungenen Rücktritt von Präsident Mugabe habe sich für die Bevölkerung Simbabwes nur wenig zum Guten geändert, schreibt der frühere Finanzminister des Landes, Tendai Biti. "For Zimbabwe, the indicators are stark. The economy is reeling. Underemployment and unemployment are widespread (roughly 95 percent of Zimbabweans work in the informal sector). State utilities have all but collapsed, and electric power cuts out frequently. Lately, the blackouts have lasted for more than 18 hours a day, even as the country suffers shortages of fuel, water, food, and medicines. More than 40 percent of the population — some seven million people — survives on emergency aid from the international community."

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12.08.2019

"The Old World and the Middle Kingdom"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-08-12/old-world-and-middle-kingdom

In Europa werde die Problematik der globalen Investitionsstrategie Pekings immer deutlicher wahrgenommen, stellen Julianne Smith und Torrey Taussig fest. Eine effektive Gegenstrategie stehe jedoch vor zwei Hindernissen: "First, Europe remains divided over how seriously to take the Chinese challenge. In contrast to the strategic shifts happening in Berlin, Paris, and the EU capital, in Brussels, the leaders of many smaller states still see only the economic benefits of deeper engagement with China. Second, Europe finds itself caught in the middle of a growing U.S.-Chinese rivalry. It cannot abandon its long-standing ties to the United States (...), but it also cannot afford to weaken a trade relationship with China worth well over $1 billion a day. (...) Europe needs a new approach, one that acknowledges the gravity of the problems posed by China’s rise and outlines a distinctly European, rather than American, response. (...) Germany is well positioned to lead this effort. Few other European countries can match its economic ties with China. This grants Berlin a unique ability within the EU to push back against Beijing — a process that it has already begun."

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24.07.2019

"Max Weber Diagnosed His Time and Ours"

http://https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/central-europe/2019-07-24/max-weber-diagnosed-his-time-and
-ours

Der Historiker Robert Zaretsky meint, dass die Lektüre des deutschen Soziologen Max Weber zum Verständnis der aktuellen politischen Umstände beitragen könne. "In early 1919, Germany risked becoming a failed state. Total war had morphed into a civil war that pitted revolutionaries against reactionaries, internationalists against nationalists, and civilians against soldiers. Munich was the bloodiest arena: over a few short months, the city was ruled by a Bavarian king, a socialist prime minister, and a Soviet republic. The first was overthrown, the second murdered, and supporters of the third slaughtered. “Everything is wretched, and everything is bloody,” Victor Klemperer, a professor at the University of Munich, wrote in his diary, 'and you always want to laugh and cry at once.' These events framed the much-anticipated lecture 'Politics as a Vocation' that Klemperer’s colleague Max Weber gave that same year. One hundred years later, there are few better texts to serve as a guide for the increasingly wretched and violent events now unfolding in our own time and place. In particular, Weber’s discussion of the charismatic politician, as well as his distinction between the ethics of conviction and the ethics of responsibility, has perhaps even greater relevance in our own era than in his."

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17.07.2019

"Why the Strait of Hormuz Is Still the World’s Most Important Chokepoint"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-07-17/why-strait-hormuz-still-worlds-most-important-chokepoi
nt

Allen James Fromherz meint mit Verweis auf die 1980 ausgerufene Carter-Doktrin, dass die USA die Sicherheit der Straße von Hormus auch militärisch garantieren sollten. "One reason for this destabilizing opportunism may be the faulty assumption by U.S. policymakers that the Carter Doctrine, under which the United States vowed to use military force to protect its interests in the Gulf, no longer applies. As the United States consumes less oil from the Middle East, the argument goes, its need to ensure the security of the region also decreases. That, however, misunderstands both history and geopolitics. The United States depends on Gulf security for more than oil. The United States depends on Gulf security for more than oil. First, and most crucially, the rising possibility of nuclear conflict (...). Second, the amount of trade that passes through Hormuz has grown rapidly with the rise of the wealthy oil states along the Gulf. Finally, the United States has invested heavily in naval bases, in Bahrain, Qatar, and elsewhere, that are accessible by sea only through Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz will remain the world’s most valuable and vulnerable trade and maritime chokepoints, no matter how much oil prices might decline. (...) Hormuz needs a steady guarantor of security, even an imperfect one."

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09.07.2019

"Why Turkey Turned Its Back on the United States and Embraced Russia"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2019-07-09/why-turkey-turned-its-back-united-states-and-em
braced-russia

Die Wurzeln der augenscheinlichen Abkehr der Türkei von den USA liegen nach Ansicht von Aaron Stein auch im Irak-Krieg. "(...) since the U.S. invasion of Iraq, which paved the way for a more assertive Kurdish regional government, Turkey has viewed the United States as a destabilizing force in the Middle East. U.S. support for Kurdish militias in Syria has cemented that view in Ankara, driving Turkey into Russia’s arms and raising questions about the country’s commitment to NATO. For proof of how little faith Turkey places in Washington these days, look no further than its plan to acquire Russia’s advanced S-400 missile defense system."

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26.06.2019

"Who Says Foreign Policy Doesn’t Win Elections?"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-america/2019-06-26/who-says-foreign-policy-doesnt-win-elect
ions

Dina Smeltz meint, dass die Außenpolitik des US-Präsidenten seinen demokratischen Herausforderern eine "goldene Gelegenheit" bieten würde. "While American attitudes on foreign policy tend to change very slowly, surveys conducted since Trump’s election in 2016 capture some interesting shifts, especially among Democratic voters. In the era of 'America first,' Democrats are even more likely than usual to rally behind U.S. allies and multilateralism. Overwhelming majorities of Democrats support the Iran nuclear agreement, the Paris climate accord, and trade — all of which reads as a rebuke of Trump. What’s more surprising is that the public at large generally shares these views, though by more modest majorities. (...) A recent Pew Research Center survey found that 70 percent of Democrats and those leaning toward the Democratic Party rate improving relationships with U.S. allies as their top foreign policy goal. Large majorities of Democrats also say that U.S. relations with the rest of the world are worsening (85 percent, according an unpublished partisan breakdown of the 2018 Chicago Council Survey) and the United States is losing allies (77 percent, according to the same poll). The broader electorate feels similarly, with 56 percent of Americans saying foreign relations are worsening and 57 percent saying the United States is losing allies. In this light, Trump’s foreign policy 'successes' look more like liabilities. We should expect Trump’s Democratic challengers to exploit them."

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11.06.2019

"A World Safe for Autocracy?"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-06-11/world-safe-autocracy

Jessica Chen Weiss widerspricht der Analyse einiger westlicher Politiker und Experten, die China auf einer Art globalen Kreuzzug gegen die liberale Demokratie sehen. "This fear gets the challenge from Beijing wrong. Not since the days of Mao Zedong has China sought to export revolution or topple democracy. (...) Beijing’s behavior suggests that China is a disgruntled and increasingly ambitious stakeholder in that order, not an implacable enemy of it. In seeking to make the world safer for the CCP [Chinese Communist Party], Beijing has rejected universal values and made it easier for authoritarian states to coexist alongside democracies. (...) At home and abroad, the CCP is fighting a defensive ideological battle against liberal norms of democracy and human rights, but so far at least, it is not engaged in a determined effort to spread autocracy. In order to respond to Beijing’s actions effectively, the United States and its allies will need to be more precise about what exactly China is doing. In the end, the best way to respond to China is to make democracy work better."

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11.06.2019

"The Self-Destruction of American Power"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-06-11/self-destruction-american-power

Fareed Zakaria wirft den USA in seinem Essay für das Magazin Foreign Affairs vor, den "unipolaren Moment" der unangefochtenen Dominanz in den Jahren nach 1989 "verschwendet" zu haben. "There were deep structural forces in the international system that inexorably worked against any one nation that accumulated so much power. In the American case, however, one is struck by the ways in which Washington — from an unprecedented position — mishandled its hegemony and abused its power, losing allies and emboldening enemies. And now, under the Trump administration, the United States seems to have lost interest, indeed lost faith, in the ideas and purpose that animated its international presence for three-quarters of a century. (...) Had the country acted more consistently in the pursuit of broader interests and ideas, it could have continued its influence for decades (albeit in a different form). The rule for extending liberal hegemony seems simple: be more liberal and less hegemonic. But too often and too obviously, Washington pursued its narrow self-interests, alienating its allies and emboldening its foes. (...) What remains, then, are American ideas. (...) The question now is whether, as American power wanes, the international system it sponsored — the rules, norms, and values — will survive. Or will America also watch the decline of its empire of ideas?"

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30.05.2019

"Why Venezuela’s Regime Hasn’t Collapsed"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2019-05-30/why-venezuelas-regime-hasnt-collapsed

Trotz des anhaltenden Drucks auf die Maduro-Regierung deutet Laura Gamboa Gutiérrez zufolge bisher kaum etwas auf einen Durchbruch für Oppositionsführer Guaidó hin. Hauptgrund sei die nach wie vor intakt erscheinende militärisch-zivile Allianz, die Maduro an der Macht halte. "(...) chipping away at Maduro’s military support is only half the equation. The opposition also needs to offer Maduro’s backers a way out. Venezuela’s generals would rather stay penniless but in power than step down and end up imprisoned. Here is where amnesty and transitional justice mechanisms come in: the opposition needs to craft amnesty laws attractive enough for those in office to give up power and comprehensive enough that they will not be overturned by domestic or international courts in the future. So far, attempts to do so have failed. (...) The failure of last month’s uprising does not mean that Maduro will last forever. In fact, seeing how close the opposition got to toppling him might have made Maduro more willing to engage in a meaningful dialogue in Norway. Until that happens, however, the unforgiving logic of regime change will continue to compel his military backers to stand by him — at least for now."

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29.05.2019

"This Is Not a Great-Power Competition"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-05-29/not-great-power-competition

Die aktuelle Rivalität zwischen den USA, China und Russland werde durch den Begriff des "Wettbewerbs der Großmächte" nur ungenau umschrieben, meint Michael J. Mazarr. "To see the state of international relations today as a new great-power competition is not only inaccurate but dangerous. Viewing competitors as mirror images of one another — as standard-issue great powers, motivated in similar ways and subject to the same kinds of influence — prevents U.S. policymakers from making crucial distinctions. Russia and China, for example, pose very different challenges for Washington. Both seek regime security and recognition as equal powers, but Russia aims to disrupt the current U.S.-led order whereas China seeks to supplant the United States’ role at the hub of world politics. Conceiving of the emerging era as a classic great-power competition can not only obscure important differences between competitors but also lead policymakers to overemphasize military power as an instrument to advance U.S. interests. (...) Finally and most perilous, a great-power competition frame risks forfeiting the immense power that comes from heading a largely aligned group of rule-following states. (...) To abandon this role would be to walk away from the greatest competitive advantage any great power has ever known."

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14.05.2019

"A Russian-Chinese Partnership Is a Threat to U.S. Interests"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-05-14/russian-chinese-partnership-threat-us-interests

Die immer engeren Beziehungen zwischen Russland und China sollten von den USA nicht tatenlos hingenommen werden, sind Andrea Kendall-Taylor und David Shullman überzeugt. Es reiche nicht aus, sich einfach darauf zu verlassen, dass die bestehenden strategischen Differenzen beider Länder eine echte Allianz verhindern werden. Washington sollte stattdessen versuchen, die Spannungen zwischen Russland und China anzufachen, so ihre Forderung. "Efforts to split Moscow and Beijing are unlikely to be effective. From the Kremlin’s perspective, the United States is a far less predictable partner than China, and Putin’s anti-Western views run deep. Xi, for his part, views Russia as useful in undermining U.S. global dominance and countering U.S. efforts to limit Chinese leverage in multilateral institutions. Still, Washington should seek to stoke tensions between the two and strain the seams in their relationship. In communicating with Beijing, Washington should underscore Russia’s proclivity for wreaking havoc in democracies that oppose its interests. (...) U.S. policymakers will also have to take care not to drive Russia and China together and consider how policies designed to confront one country could inadvertently hinder efforts to confront the other. The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, for example, was designed to deter Russian aggression by limiting the Kremlin’s revenue from arms exports. Yet these sanctions have prevented some countries, including India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, from purchasing the Russian arms they need to deter China."

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09.05.2019

"The Art of a New Iran Deal - What the World’s Diplomats Really Think of Trump’s Endgame in Iran"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2019-05-09/art-new-iran-deal

Sanam Vakil von der britischen Denkfabrik Chatham House hat mit ihren Kollegen 75 internationale Diplomaten nach deren Meinung zur Iran-Strategie des US-Präsidenten befragt. "From this survey, we can determine how those most in the know — and likeliest to participate in future talks — evaluate Trump’s Iran policy and its prospects of success. The respondents were overwhelmingly skeptical, and many pointed to the same deficits. The U.S. administration has called for something — a deal — that requires diplomacy but then consistently reached only for the bluntest of coercive instruments. Washington has further undercut its prospects by failing to nurture its European alliances or to create favorable conditions for Tehran to engage in talks. (...) Most people we interviewed felt that Washington’s policy of 'maximum pressure' on Iran was not meeting its stated objective of bringing Iran back to the negotiating table. Less than 20 percent of our respondents thought a grand bargain with Iran was achievable. The remaining respondents were divided. (...) When asked why the Trump administration’s policy had not been more successful to date, about half of the interviewees pointed to divisions and competition within the administration over Iran policy. While President Trump has clearly stated his desire for a deal with Iran, other members of the administration have sent contradictory messages, respondents noted."

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