US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Council on Foreign Relations


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12.04.2019

"The Continued Power of Militaries in an Increasingly Autocratic World"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/continued-power-militaries-increasingly-autocratic-world

Joshua Kurlantzick nimmt die Proteste in Algerien und Sudan zum Anlass, um darauf hinzuweisen, dass das Militär auch in vielen anderen Ländern der Welt eine zentrale politische Rolle spiele. "Just as other types of autocratic regimes have freer rein today than they did in the 1990s and early 2000s, militaries also face fewer constraints on their power. Democratic powers are distracted by their own deep political problems, populations in some states have soured on democracy and looked to other alternatives, and the U.S. government views regions like Southeast Asia as places home to a growing contest for influence with China — and thus requiring closer ties with almost any government willing to align with Washington. (...) in a world increasingly looking for strongman rule as an alternative to democracy, to solve crises of graft and a lack of political accountability by elected leaders, military men have become more attractive. (...) In places like Egypt, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, or even Brazil, armed forces, too, are again embedding within their military cultures a resistance to civilian oversight — or refusing to change their cultures to embrace civilian oversight."

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03.04.2019

"The State of Global Democracy Today is Even Worse Than It Looks: V-Dem’s New Democracy Research"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/state-global-democracy-today-even-worse-it-looks-v-dems-new-democracy-research

Joshua Kurlantzick stellt die Ergebnisse einer Studie des Projekts "Varieties of Democracy" vor, der zufolge die "dritte Welle der Autokratisierung" mehr Demokratien betreffe als angenommen. "(...) a fascinating new article, based on groundbreaking new research, suggests that the global retreat of democracy is actually worse than it appears, even to some of its most pessimistic observers. In an article for Democratization, Anna Luhrmann and Staffan Lindberg of the University of Gothenburg, who base their conclusions on the V-Dem, or Varieties of Democracy, Project’s findings, argue that a 'third wave of autocratization' (following the world’s two previous autocratic waves last century), or a move away from democracy, is actually affecting more democracies than was commonly thought, although usually through gradual reversals, with legal facades, rather than an abrupt democratic reversal like a coup."

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25.03.2019

"Why Ukraine Might Make a TV Actor Its President"

https://www.cfr.org/article/why-ukraine-might-make-tv-actor-its-president

Stephen Sestanovich erläutert, warum er einen Wahlsieg des TV-Komikers Volodymyr Zelensky bei den kommenden ukrainischen Präsidentschaftswahlen nicht für unwahrscheinlich hält. "Ukraine has long embraced politicians with contradictory personas. Critics and supporters alike wonder whether Zelensky is the character he plays on TV — someone who tells truth to power and takes on corruption — or a tool of oligarchs. A corrupt and controversial billionaire owns the TV channel of Zelensky’s show, and no one seems to believe that it’s a business connection of no political significance. But voters may not care. Poroshenko won the presidency in 2014 as a change agent, while being a billionaire fat cat. In Ukraine, this pattern is an old one. (...) Poroshenko does have one hope. Since independence Ukraine has had two types of presidential elections: ones marked by high mobilization and throw-the-rascals-out rhetoric, and ones in which the message is to throw the rascals in and go back to sleep. (...) After the 2014 Maidan demonstrations, he won an historic time-for-a-change election. Today, almost half of voters say they will not support him under any circumstances. In this setting, he needs a steady-as-you-go, devil-you-know, back-to-sleep mandate."

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28.01.2019

"The Golan Heights Should Stay Israeli Forever"

https://www.cfr.org/article/golan-heights-should-stay-israeli-forever

Steven A. Cook hält es anlässlich aktueller Überlegungen über eine offizielle amerikanische Anerkennung der israelischen Besatzung der Golanhöhen für praktisch ausgeschlossen, dass Israel das Gebiet jemals aufgeben wird. "Should the United States recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights? The question has come up in the last few weeks, because Israel is having an election in April. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly been lobbying the Trump administration on the idea of formally acknowledging Israel’s 1981 annexation of Syrian territory. (...) the U.S.-Israeli negotiations are a sideshow for a more fundamental strategic reason. Whether Washington recognizes Israel’s annexation or not, the Israelis are never withdrawing from the Golan Heights — nor should they. (...) the status quo in which the United States simply ignores Israel’s absorption of the area is preferable to American recognition, which would result in a messy and counterproductive international debate that will do nothing other than highlight Israel’s original annexation, spurring opposition when previously there was acquiescence."

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23.01.2019

"Climate Change Is a Threat to Military Security"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/climate-change-threat-military-security

Benjamin Silliman stellt einen neuen Pentagon-Bericht vor, aus dem hervorgehe, warum der Klimawandel vom US-Militär bereits heute als konkrete Bedrohung wahrgenommen wird. "The report includes a list of selected events where mission related activities at military installations were compromised due to environmental vulnerabilities as well as a brief list of policies taken to mitigate future damages. To quantify the extent to which the military is threatened by climate change, the report tracked seventy-nine priority American domestic installations chosen by their critical operational roles. While the public report was circumspect on details given the sensitive strategic nature of the subject, it did identify climate change as an important and tangible threat to the U.S. military."

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17.12.2018

"U.S. Confrontations With Iran and China Among Top Potential Conflicts in 2019, According to CFR Survey"

https://www.cfr.org/news-releases/us-confrontations-iran-and-china-among-top-potential-conflicts-2019-acc
ording-cfr

Der Council on Foreign Relations hat eine Umfrage unter Sicherheitsexperten durchgeführt, die mehrheitlich erwarten, dass im kommenden Jahr die potentiellen Konflikte der USA mit Iran und China im sicherheitspolitischen Vordergrund stehen werden. "The possibility of conflict between the United States and Iran as well as between the United States and China constitute two of the greatest threats to peace in 2019 and warrant heightened focus from policymakers, according to the Council on Foreign Relations’ (CFR) eleventh annual Preventive Priorities Survey, which identifies nine top conflict prevention priorities for the United States in the year ahead. The worsening humanitarian situations in Venezuela and Yemen are also major concerns that call for greater effort so that they do not deteriorate further. The survey, conducted by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action (CPA), asked foreign policy experts to rank thirty ongoing or potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating in the next year and their potential impact on U.S. national interests."

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13.12.2018

"Islamist Terrorism Spreads to Eastern Burkina Faso"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/islamist-terrorism-spreads-eastern-burkina-faso

Adam Valavanis berichtet über die zunehmende Bedrohung durch radikalislamische Gruppen im Osten des westafrikanischen Burkina Faso. "Islamist terrorism has wracked the Sahel for several years now, but it is a relatively recent phenomenon in Burkina Faso. Its arrival is partly related to the fall from power of former President Blaise Compaore. Popular unrest in response to a failed bid to extend his nearly three decade-long tenure in 2014 pushed Campaore from power. The country’s Western-trained presidential guard, still loyal to the former president, staged a coup to topple the transitional government in 2015. The coup ultimately failed and the presidential guard was subsequently dissolved. The dissolution of the presidential guard left a hole in the Burkinabe security apparatus, providing an opening for jihadist groups to expand in the country. (...) Both the north and east have long been neglected by the central government, which failed to extend the state security apparatus over the region and invest in the local economy. This negligence has allowed organized crime to flourish in the east making possible the expansion of jihadist groups there. The area is also home to dense forests that provide an ideal landscape for militant groups to evade the government."

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05.12.2018

"Authoritarians Are Exporting Surveillance Tech, And With it Their Vision for the Internet"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/authoritarians-are-exporting-surveillance-tech-and-it-their-vision-internet

Justin Sherman und Robert Morgus vom Think-Tank New America finden es bedenklich, dass Überwachungstechnologien aus autoritären Staaten wie China weltweite Verbreitung finden. "To be clear, surveillance tools — or at the very least dual-use items that can be used for surveillance — that are developed in the United States and other liberal-democratic markets get exported too. But since the 2013 Wassenaar Arrangement, many of these liberal-democratic economies have sought to limit the flow of digital surveillance tools to human rights-abusing regimes. (...) Exporting surveillance technology (and know-how) to other countries is a way to reinforce the sovereign and controlled vision for the internet — one where governments control the network within their borders, in an effort to control their citizens’ social, political, and economic behavior. (...) If China and Russia seek to export their authoritarian model, expect more exports to these countries in the near future. It is imperative, therefore, that liberal-democracies recognize that the export of surveillance technology is about far more than dollars and cents or human rights abuses. It’s also about promoting an authoritarian model for the internet."

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03.12.2018

"Germany Develops Offensive Cyber Capabilities Without A Coherent Strategy of What to Do With Them"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/germany-develops-offensive-cyber-capabilities-without-coherent-strategy-what-do-
them

Matthias Schulze von der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) und Sven Herpig von der Stiftung Neue Verantwortung (SNV) werfen der Bundesregierung vor, die Entwicklung offensiver Cyberkriegsfähigkeiten ohne überzeugende Strategie voranzutreiben. "There is currently no strategic debate about what German policymakers want to achieve with its new offensive capabilities. Questions about attribution and appropriate responses have apparently not yet been discussed. It is further unclear whether the political will exists to use these offensive capabilities in a time of crisis. (...) As Germany tries to flex its muscles in cyberspace, allies and adversaries alike will be left to wonder what to expect absent an overall strategy. German policymakers should start a strategic discussion about the country’s role in a contested cyberspace. It needs to explain to its allies how its new offensive tools will work to support multilateral frameworks like NATO, the EU and the UN. Germany also needs to signal to hostile cyber actors what behavior it deems inappropriate, and how it will likely respond if certain red-lines are crossed."

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26.11.2018

"A Decade On, Will There Ever Be Justice for the Mumbai Attacks?"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/decade-will-there-ever-be-justice-mumbai-attacks

Bei einer Serie von Anschlägen im indischen Mumbai wurden vor zehn Jahren mindestens 166 Menschen durch Mitglieder der in Pakistan ansässigen Terrororganisation Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) getötet. Alyssa Ayres stellt fest, dass viele der mutmaßlich verantwortlichen Extremisten in Pakistan bis heute nicht verurteilt worden sind. Sie empfiehlt eine Reihe von Büchern und Beiträgen, die sich näher mit dieser Thematik auseinandersetzen. "(...) the trial of seven members of this terrorist group has been stalled in Pakistan for years; earlier this year, former (and ousted) Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif made headlines (and controversy in Pakistan) for publicly acknowledging the activity of this group, and asking publicly why the trial could not be completed. On November 25, 2018, the United States issued a new 'Rewards for Justice' incentive of $5 million for 'information about the individuals responsible for these [Mumbai] attacks.' (...) In the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an international collective focused on denying financial flows to terrorist groups, Pakistan was placed on the 'gray list' in June 2018. U.S. security assistance has been suspended for nearly a year due to Pakistan’s inaction on various terror groups operating from its soil."

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24.10.2018

"Trump’s Cuts to Central America Aid Will Lead to More Caravans"

https://www.cfr.org/article/trumps-cuts-central-america-aid-will-lead-more-caravans

Die USA stehen gegenwärtig angesichts einer neuen "Karawane" von Migranten aus Mittelamerika vor ihrer eigenen "Flüchtlingskrise". Shannon K. O'Neil schreibt, dass die US-Regierung bei der Bekämpfung der Migrationsursachen bisher auf finanzielle Hilfsprogramme gesetzt habe. US-Präsident Trump habe den betroffenen Ländern nun allerdings mit Kürzungen gedroht. "As several thousand Central American migrants moved through Honduras, Guatemala and into Mexico on their way toward the United States, President Trump tweeted that he would begin cutting off foreign aid to these countries. Given Congress’s power of the purse, acting on these threats is likely illegal. More importantly, however, it would be counterproductive. Not only would such a pullback swell this human tide, it would squander the hard-earned gains and lessons of a decade-long effort to make Central American nations better places to live than to leave."

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23.10.2018

"NATO’s Trident Juncture Exercises: What to Know"

https://www.cfr.org/article/natos-trident-juncture-exercises-what-know

Die NATO wird mit dem Manöver "Trident Juncture" in Norwegen ihre größte Truppenübung seit dem Ende des Kalten Krieges durchführen. Jonathan Masters schreibt, dass es sich bei dem Manöver auch um eine "Demonstration der Stärke" handeln soll. "The aggressor in the simulation is fictitious, but the setting and the scale of the exercises point clearly in one direction. Tensions between NATO and Russia, which shares an Arctic border with Norway, are running high. In the last five years, Russia has annexed Crimea, destabilized eastern Ukraine, provided military aid to a brutal regime in Syria, meddled in Western elections, and either walked away from or allegedly violated major multilateral security treaties. 'This exercise is part of NATO’s ongoing effort since the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine to reassure member states bordering Russia that the Alliance will defend them against Russian aggression,' says CFR’s James M. Goldgeier, an expert on Eurasian security."

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19.10.2018

"U.S. Must Shed Its Illusions About Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince"

https://www.cfr.org/article/us-must-shed-its-illusions-about-saudi-arabias-crown-prince

Richard N. Haass meint, dass die USA sich nach der Tötung des saudi-arabischen Journalisten Jamal Khashoggi nicht unbedingt von Saudi-Arabien, in jedem Fall aber von Kronprinz Mohammad bin Salman distanzieren sollten. "The president claims the US must stand by MbS because his country is an important and valuable ally that buys significant amounts of arms, is helpful in Syria and in the fight against terrorism, and is a partner versus Iran. Saudi Arabia still produces about one out of every 10 barrels of oil in the world. Its investments are large and important to a number of businesses and projects. This is all true, but it overlooks the fact that the impulsive and reckless crown prince often does things that harm or fail to help US interests. (...) There are, however, some lessons from these experiences that suggest what could and should be done. First, it would be wise to distinguish between Saudi Arabia and MbS. This would argue for holding off anything that smacks of an unconditional embrace of MbS. There should be no invites to the White House or Downing Street. (...) MbS has placed his own future in jeopardy, and other members of the royal family will come to understand that US and western support for him cannot be taken for granted. It is up to the Saudis to sort out their succession. It would be ironic if an action apparently carried out to strengthen his control over his country had just the opposite effect. But it is possible all the same."

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16.10.2018

"Disinformation on Steroids"

https://www.cfr.org/report/deep-fake-disinformation-steroids

Die beiden Rechtsexperten Robert Chesney und Danielle K. Citron erläutern in diesem "Cyber Brief" für den Council on Foreign Relations, warum sie Bildfälschungen durch sogenannte "Deep Fakes" für ein ernstes Problem für demokratische Regierungen und für die internationale Ordnung halten. Sie empfehlen einige konkrete Gegenmaßnahmen. "As this technology spreads, the ability to produce bogus yet credible video and audio content will come within the reach of an ever-larger array of governments, nonstate actors, and individuals. As a result, the ability to advance lies using hyperrealistic, fake evidence is poised for a great leap forward. (...) Enhancing current efforts by the National Science Foundation, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) could spur breakthroughs that lead to scalable and robust detection capacities and digital provenance solutions. In the meantime, the current wave of interest in improving the extent to which social media companies seek to prevent or remove fraudulent content has pushed companies to take advantage of available detection technologies — flagging suspect content for further scrutiny, providing clear warnings to users, removing known deep fakes, and sharing such content in an effort to help prevent it from being reposted elsewhere (following a model used to limit the spread of child pornography). While by no means a complete solution, all of this would be a useful step forward."

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16.10.2018

"President Trump Embraces Foreign Aid After Trying to Gut It"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/president-trump-embraces-foreign-aid-after-trying-gut-it

US-Präsident Trump hat seine bisherige Ablehnung von amerikanischer Entwicklungshilfe für ärmere Länder offenbar überdacht und John Campbell zufolge ein entsprechendes Gesetz unterzeichnet, das vor allem Afrika zugutekommen wird. "In its early days, the Trump administration’s rhetoric was hostile to the United States funding overseas economic development and skeptical of the benefits of soft power. (...) Now the Trump administration has created a development assistance entity, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC), with a budget of $60 billion. Unlike OPIC, IDFC will have the ability to make equity investments and to make loans in local currency, reducing investor currency exchange risk. (...) The IDFC has bipartisan Congressional support, reflecting the long-standing tradition of working across the aisle when it comes to development and humanitarian assistance. It is also supported by USAID and OPIC. It looks as though concern about China's growing influence in developing countries has been the driver of the administration’s new embrace of development assistance and soft power."

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05.10.2018

"Ethiopia: East Africa’s Emerging Giant"

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ethiopia-east-africas-emerging-giant

Äthiopien ist nach Nigeria das bevölkerungsreichste Land in Afrika und hat sich in den vergangenen Jahren als regionaler Stabilitätsgarant mit hohem Wirtschaftswachstum und zunehmender strategischer Bedeutung erwiesen, erklärt Claire Felter in diesem Länderporträt. Nach 2015 hätten politische Unruhen den Fortschritt allerdings gefährdet. Der seit April 2018 amtierende Premierminister Abiy Ahmed habe darauf mit einer ambitionierten Reformagenda reagiert. "Since taking office in April 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has responded with promises of dramatic political and economic reforms and has shepherded a historic peace deal with neighboring Eritrea. The new leader’s aggressive approach to change has been met with exuberance among many Ethiopians, but experts warn that Abiy’s challenge to a decades-old political order faces major obstacles, and it is yet unclear whether he can follow through on his agenda."

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01.10.2018

"A Blue Wave Won’t Rescue China"

https://www.cfr.org/article/blue-wave-wont-rescue-china

Die Kongresswahlen in den USA am 6. November könnten den Demokraten neue Mehrheiten und entsprechenden Einfluss auf die amerikanische Außenpolitik verschaffen. An der China-Politik der USA dürfte sich in diesem Fall allerdings nur wenig ändern, so die Prognose von Ivo H. Daalder und James M. Lindsay. "Odds are that Trump won’t abandon his get-tough policy with Beijing even in the face of a Republican defeat, and that Democrats will be neither able nor inclined to make him, even as they complain loudly about his tactics. (...) Congress can, of course, try to reclaim its trade authority. That, however, requires passing legislation. And that’s the rub. Lawmakers gridlocked by partisanship aren’t likely to come together suddenly on trade policy. Even if Congress could agree on a legislative fix, Trump would almost certainly veto it. (...) The difficulty that congressional Democrats would face in compelling Trump to soften his China trade policy is compounded by a political reality: many of them agree with what he is trying to do, if not necessarily how he is doing it. The optimism of the Clinton-Bush years that China would embrace open markets and rule of law has faded on Capitol Hill."

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28.09.2018

"America's Dilemma in Cameroon: Supporting an Abusive Military"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/americas-dilemma-cameroon-supporting-abusive-military

Die veröffentlichten Videos der Exekutionen von Zivilisten durch Regierungssoldaten haben die Aufmerksamkeit auf Kamerun in Westafrika gelenkt, das seit 36 Jahren durch Präsident Paul Biya autoritär gelenkt wird. John Campbell schreibt, dass das US-Militär bei der Bekämpfung der Boko Haram eng mit Kamerun kooperiere und nun vor einem Dilemma stehe. "The regime and the Cameroonian security services are actively involved in the struggle against Boko Haram. The Departments of Defense and State apparently judge that it is in the interests of the United States that Cameroonian involvement continue and be strengthened. So, while the Department of Defense has issued a statement calling on Cameroon to conduct a full investigation into the human rights violations captured on the videos, it has not taken steps to terminate its military relationship. America’s dilemma is how to balance U.S. security interests with human rights concerns. This is an old song. After all, the United States partnered with Stalin’s Soviet Union against Nazi Germany during World War II. On the other hand, the increased use of videos and the rise of social media means that human rights abuses are harder to ignore now than then."

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25.09.2018

"Narcissistic Nationalism: Trump’s Second UN General Assembly Address"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/narcissistic-nationalism-trumps-second-un-general-assembly-address

Stewart M. Patrick meint, dass US-Präsident Trump in seiner Rede vor der UN-Vollversammlung sein "engstirniges transaktionales" Verständnis der internationalen Diplomatie demonstriert habe. "The president was speaking to the United Nations, but his emphasis was less on uniting the world behind common purposes than demanding respect for the independence and uniqueness of each assembled nation — not least his own. Entirely absent was any discussion of U.S. global leadership or the common purposes of the world body. (...) Trump’s promise that America would finally stand up for itself should play well with his domestic supporters — his intended audience, of course. But his description of current global realities is off base, and his browbeating style is counterproductive, promising to accelerate U.S. diplomatic isolation."

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04.09.2018

"As Germany Moves Toward a More Offensive Posture in Cyberspace, It Will Need a Vulnerability Equities Process"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/germany-moves-toward-more-offensive-posture-cyberspace-it-will-need-vulnerabilit
y-equities

Sven Herpig von der Stiftung Neue Verantwortung in Berlin schreibt, dass Deutschland mit der Gründung des Bundeswehrkommandos Cyber- und Informationsraum neben defensiven Aufgaben auch offensive Reaktionen auf Cyberangriffe verfolgt. Dafür müssten in vielen Fällen Sicherheitslücken im Netz genutzt werden, deren schnelle Schließung eigentlich im öffentlichen Interesse liege. "This puts governments, like Germany’s, in a bind. The vulnerabilities it seeks to exploit for its offensive purposes could also be used by state actors, criminals, and others against it as well as domestic companies, utilities and its citizens. (...) To address this challenge, Germany needs a regulatory framework, one which is proposed in a new report supported by the Transatlantic Cyber Forum. The report proposes that a German vulnerabilities equities process (VEP) be weighed towards immediate vulnerability disclosure, with retention being authorized under specific circumstances and only for limited periods of time."

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06.08.2018

"The Return of U.S. Sanctions on Iran: What to Know"

https://www.cfr.org/article/return-us-sanctions-iran-what-know

Die USA haben ihre vor zwei Jahren aufgehobenen Sanktionen gegen den Iran wie angekündigt wieder eingesetzt. Der Council on Foreign Relations hat Informationen über die umstrittene Maßnahme zusammengetragen. "The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the JCPOA on May 8 reinstates two sets of sanctions. The first, coming into effect August 7, includes restrictions on: Iran’s purchase of U.S. currency; Iran’s trade in gold and other precious metals; and the sale to Iran of auto parts, commercial passenger aircraft, and related parts and services. The second set of sanctions, which comes back into force on November 4, restricts sales of oil and petrochemical products from Iran. The Trump administration has so far rejected requests by foreign governments and companies that would allow them to continue to conduct business with Iran."

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26.07.2018

"A Glimpse of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Under Imran Khan?"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/glimpse-pakistans-foreign-policy-under-imran-khan

Der Oppositionspolitiker Imran Khan könnte nach dem Wahlsieg seiner Partei neuer Premierminister Pakistans werden. Alyssa Ayres verweist auf eine Rede, in der der frühere Cricket-Spieler seine außenpolitischen Ziele erläutert hat. "For U.S. leaders, improvement in U.S.-Pakistan ties will be possible once a clear commitment to tackling terrorism becomes more apparent. This will surely also rank as priority number one for Indian interlocutors as well; and for Afghans, too. Unfortunately for all three countries, it’s also the issue that Khan, a civilian politician widely described as the military’s 'favored' candidate this time around, would be least likely to confront. So despite the positive signals from this speech, Khan will have a hard time delivering better ties with Afghanistan, India, and the United States without addressing the terrorism issue writ large. And while Khan struck a positive, forward-looking tone in the speech, it’s important to remember that this is the same politician who has been highly critical of the United States and U.S. counterterrorism priorities in particular. It looks like a rocky road ahead."

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19.07.2018

"North Korea’s Power Structure"

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/north-koreas-power-structure

Eleanor Albert wirft einen genaueren Blick auf die Machtstrukturen des Regimes in Nordkorea, das seit Jahrzehnten von der Kim-Familie beherrscht wird. "Experts say Kim Jong-un has deftly navigated his rise to power. While drawing on nostalgia for his grandfather’s era and grandiose persona, 'Kim Jong-un is also determined to be seen as a 'modern leader' of a 'modern North Korea,' writes the Brookings Institution’s Jung H. Pak. Economic development is fashioned as the vehicle for this modernization. (...) CNA’s Gause says 'the economy is Kim Jong-un’s strategy,' adding that all of his recent efforts at diplomacy are 'designed to hook into the South Korean economic engine' and solidify his legacy. Experts say North Korea is entering a critical period of change under a regime that has by and large resisted rapid change and outside influence. Even as the ultimate authority, they say, Kim will need to cultivate the support of enough elites and successfully manage the pace of change to meet his goal of making North Korea a strong and prosperous nation."

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19.07.2018

"Could European Populism Go Nuclear on NATO?"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/could-european-populism-go-nuclear-nato

Der Aufstieg populistischer Parteien und eine zunehmend antiamerikanische Stimmung in Europa könnten bald zu ernsten Forderungen nach einem Abzug der dort stationierten US-Atomwaffen führen, meint Stewart M. Patrick. "The surge of populism in Germany, the backbone of the European project, can do the most damage to the shared nuclear deterrent. (...) In its platform, AfD explicitly calls for the withdrawal of all NATO troops and nuclear weapons from German territory. With the near collapse of the current German government over immigration, the possibility of a rise to power by AfD or a party with similar views is no longer far-fetched. Like in Germany, the specter of populism has become very real in Italy, with the anti-establishment coalition formed by the League and 5-Star parties taking power. This could spell trouble for the NATO shared deterrent, given the broad unpopularity of nuclear weapons in the country. (...) If the Pentagon truly wants to adhere to its designs to expand its arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe as part of the NATO shared nuclear deterrent, it needs to start coming up with contingency plans. At the very least, President Trump should stop antagonizing NATO allies and try to preserve what little good will remains toward the U.S. agenda."

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10.07.2018

"Global Peacekeeping Operations Overwhelmingly African and in Africa"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/global-peacekeeping-operations-overwhelmingly-african-and-africa

In einer neuen Auflistung internationaler UN-Einsätze durch das Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) wird John Campbell zufolge deutlich, dass die meisten UN-Friedensmissionen in Afrika stattfinden. "Africa hosts the largest number, with twenty-five missions. For perspective, there were eighteen in Europe, nine in the Middle East, six in Asia, and five in the Western Hemisphere. African peacekeeping missions accounted for some 75 percent of all peacekeeping personnel, with African countries accounting for the majority of those troops. Either immediately or over time, almost all peacekeeping missions involve the UN Security Council. Furthermore, over 60 percent of all Security Council resolutions, beyond just peacekeeping, concerned Africa at one point. The predominance of African peacekeeping operations and Africa in general is a central argument among those who advocate for a permanent African seat on the Security Council."

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28.06.2018

"The Global Implications of Justice Kennedy’s Retirement"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/global-implications-justice-kennedys-retirement

Der angekündigte Rücktritt von Richter Anthony Kennedy aus dem Obersten Gerichtshof in Washington hat in den USA eine heftige innenpolitische Debatte ausgelöst. Stewart M. Patrick macht darauf aufmerksam, dass der Rücktritt auch internationale Folgen habe könnte, da sich Kennedy im Gegensatz zu seinen konservativen Kollegen immer für ein "produktives Verhältnis" der USA zum Völkerrecht eingesetzt habe. "Whoever succeeds him will likely take a more conservative approach, setting up a potential confrontation between a sovereignty-obsessed America and the international rule of law. The proper place of international law in U.S. law and jurisprudence — the subject of the legal field known as 'foreign relations law' — is a political minefield. It generates vigorous, sometimes vituperative debate among constitutional scholars, including sitting Supreme Court justices. (...) Those conservatives are now ascendant in the Trump administration, and they are determined that Kennedy’s successor not repeat the latter’s apostasy. Jay Sekulow, a member of Trump’s legal team who is helping the president screen potential picks to replace Kennedy, made that clear Wednesday evening. Speaking on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show, he declared that any successful candidate for the Supreme Court must reject any reference to foreign courts."

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05.06.2018

"U.S. Military Presence in Sub-Saharan Africa Will Likely Decline"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-military-presence-sub-saharan-africa-will-likely-decline

Zahl und Umfang der Antiterroroperationen amerikanischer Spezialeinheiten in Subsahara-Afrika sollen nach dem Willen des US-Verteidigungsministeriums in den kommenden Monaten offenbar deutlich reduziert werden. Auslöser dieser Entscheidung ist eine offizielle Untersuchung, die nach dem Tod von vier US-Soldaten bei einem Überfall in Niger im vergangenen Oktober eingeleitet wurde. "At the time, especially in Congress, there was concern about the U.S. presence in Niger and personnel's involvement with fighting rather than exclusively with training and advising. The Department of Defense subsequently conducted a thorough investigation, which, according to the New York Times, will likely result in a reduction of the number of Special Forces in Africa. AFRICOM has reportedly been asked to develop scenarios for counterterrorism operations in Africa if Special Forces were reduced by 25 percent over 18 months and 50 percent over 36 months. Citing Defense Department sources, the Times also reports that there is concern that Special Forces, numbering about 7,300 in 92 countries around the world, are over-stretched. There are about 1,200 Special Forces personnel currently in Africa."

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20.03.2018

"Thirty Years of U.S. Arms Sales to Middle East Endogenous to Unstable Oil Prices, Research Shows"

https://www.cfr.org/blog/thirty-years-us-arms-sales-middle-east-endogenous-unstable-oil-prices-research-s
hows

Amy Myers Jaffe hat in einer Studie für das Magazin Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy (EEEP) zusammen mit Mahmoud El-Gamal untersucht, ob es zwischen den amerikanischen Waffenexporten in die Region, instabilen Ölpreisen und ausbrechenden Konflikten einen Zusammenhang gibt. Ihr Fazit lautet: "In our EEEP article, we argue that geopolitical events that are often considered exogenous to the debt-driven financial boom and bust global economic cycle are part of an endogenous and self-perpetuating meta-cycle, linked by high petrodollar recycling during periods of high oil prices that typically accompany high economic growth periods, like the one seen in the early 2010s. Petrodollar recycling takes many forms, including rising military spending and buildups. (...) A significant part of Arab countries’ military equipment (and Russia’s) used in recent conflicts was accumulated during oil boom years following the Iraqi invasion (2003-2007) and during the Arab Spring uprising (2011-2013). Last year escalations in conflict across the Middle East from Yemen to Northern Iraq helped raise the price of oil on the heels of the major down cycle of 2014-2015. (...) Forty years of military buildups have failed to bring peace and economic prosperity to the Middle East. While it is unlikely that the Middle East oil exporters will intentionally escalate regional proxy wars in a manner that leads to the destruction of oil facilities, the nature of war can be irrational and unpredictable, hence explaining the return of the geopolitical risk premium to the price of oil."

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15.03.2018

"Are Cold War Spy-Craft Norms Fading?"

https://www.cfr.org/interview/are-cold-war-spy-craft-norms-fading

Der frühere CIA-Mitarbeiter Jack Devine wirft Russland vor, bisherige Gepflogenheiten der internationalen Geheimdienstarbeit immer häufiger zu missachten. "American and Russian intelligence services since roughly the Stalin era held a gentlemen’s agreement, often referred to as Moscow rules, that limited how we engaged with each other. Under these rules, and the prevailing threat of mutually assured destruction, we agreed not to attack each other physically and not to engage in certain types of activities, such as counterfeiting each other’s currency and meddling in each other’s political internal affairs. (...) Russia seems unconstrained by any norms, whether they be Moscow rules, risk aversion, or rule of law and tenets of common decency. The list of Russia’s alleged transgressions keeps mounting: unrestrained bombings of civilians in Syria, meddling in elections in Eastern and Western Europe and United States, a systemic doping program for Olympic athletes, and assassination campaigns against domestic dissidents, whistle-blowers, human rights activists, independent journalists, and defectors from its intelligence services; Sergei Skripal certainly fits the profile. The methods, too; slow, cruel deaths by exposure to carefully crafted toxins are alarming to many."

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06.03.2018

"Al-Qaeda’s Resurrection"

https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/al-qaedas-resurrection

Nach Ansicht von Bruce Hoffman ist es an der Zeit, die Al-Qaida erneut als weltweit größte Terrorbedrohung einzustufen. Die Terrororganisation sei der große Gewinner der Umwälzungen des Arabischen Frühlings im Nahen Osten. "While the self-proclaimed Islamic State has dominated the headlines and preoccupied national security officials for the past four years, al-Qaeda has been quietly rebuilding. Its announcement last summer of another affiliate — this one dedicated to the liberation of Kashmir — coupled with the resurrection of its presence in Afghanistan and the solidification of its influence in Syria, Yemen, and Somalia, underscores the resiliency and continued vitality of the United States’ preeminent terrorist enemy. (...) ISIS can no longer compete with al-Qaeda in terms of influence, reach, manpower, or cohesion. In only two domains is ISIS currently stronger than its rival: the power of its brand and its presumed ability to mount spectacular terrorist strikes in Europe. But the latter is a product of Zawahiri’s strategic decision to prohibit external operations in the West so that al-Qaeda’s rebuilding can continue without interference."

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