US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Council on Foreign Relations


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"Who’s Who in Northern Syria?"

Lindsay Maizland stellt in diesem Überblicksartikel anlässlich der türkischen Offensive in Nordsyrien noch einmal die dort aktiven Konfliktparteien vor. "In a new escalation in Syria’s civil war, Turkey has launched a military operation aimed at removing Kurdish fighters from areas in northern Syria near the Turkish border. Here’s what you need to know about the many actors in the region (...). Turkish forces have been bolstered by several mainly Arab militias. The Free Syrian Army (now named the National Army), the main opposition group since the start of the civil war, has offered to dedicate fourteen thousand rebels to assist in the Turkish operation. It claims to have eighty thousand fighters throughout Syria. Smaller rebel groups also support Turkey."

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"Halle Shooting: The New Terrorism Reality"

Nach dem Anschlag von Halle stellen Bruce Hoffman und Jacob Ware fest, dass Terroranschläge im Westen mittlerweile überwiegend von rechtsextremistischen Tätern verübt werden. "There are no easy fixes to this intensifying problem. There is not always an organized group to investigate, leader to target, or single online community to de-platform. Moreover, far-right extremism is often more transnational than is commonly assumed. An effective response will require greater devotion and resources from domestic intelligence agencies — indeed, this is already occurring in places — as well as persistent international collaboration. Improved law enforcement training and awareness are also essential. As both community observers and first responders, law enforcement agencies provide both the first and last lines of defense, so they need to be well-prepared and ready to act."

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"Central America’s Turbulent Northern Triangle"

Die Länder im nördlichen Dreieck Zentralamerikas leiden Amelia Cheatham zufolge unter chronischer Armut, Gewalt und Korruption. Das Resultat sei ein wachsende Migrationsbewegung von Menschen, die vor allem in die USA gelangen wollen. "Migrants, including a growing number of women and children, are fleeing the troubled region in record numbers. On average, about 265,000 people have left annually in recent years, and this number is on track to more than double in 2019. Some migrants seek asylum in other parts of Latin America or in Europe. However, most endure a treacherous journey north through Mexico to the United States. (...) The region is among the poorest in the Western Hemisphere. In 2018, all three countries ranked in the bottom quartile for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita among Latin American states. Roughly 60 percent of Hondurans and Guatemalans live below their countries’ national poverty lines, according to the most recent data, compared to 30 percent of all Latin Americans. (...) Over the past twenty years, the United States has taken significant steps to try to help Northern Triangle countries manage irregular migration flows by fighting economic insecurity and violence. However, critics say U.S. policies have been largely reactive, prompted by upturns in migration to the U.S.-Mexico border."

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"Patriot Games: President Trump Again Puts the 'Nation' in United Nations"

In seiner mittlerweile dritten Rede vor der UN-Generalversammlung habe US-Präsident Trump erneut die Bedeutung der Nationalstaaten in der internationalen Ordnung hervorgehoben, berichtet Stewart M. Patrick. "(...) Trump reinforced the central theme of his first two appearances: The road to international peace and prosperity requires collaboration among fiercely independent, sovereign nations that are vigilant in pursuing their national interests and determined to combat the siren songs of 'globalism' and 'socialism.' The president trumpeted the spirit of 'national renewal' he had launched at home, and he encouraged peoples of all nations to embrace their own forms patriotism, by cherishing their unique histories, cultures, and destinies. At the same time, he offered zero guidance about how multilateral cooperation could actually emerge from these competing nationalisms. Nor did he explain why any other UN member states would want to follow the U.S. lead on Iran, given his own administration’s repeated defection from major international initiatives over the past three years. In contrast to his earlier, bombastic appearances before the United Nations, Trump’s tone was solemn, even-keeled, even reassuring."

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"Scale and Nature of Attacks on Saudi Oil Makes This One Different"

Amy M. Jaffe erläutert, warum der Angriff auf die beiden saudi-arabischen Ölanlagen eine größere Bedeutung hat als ähnliche Vorfälle in der Vergangenheit. "Saudi Arabia and Iran have been engaged in a deadly proxy war for a number of years, and their respective proxies engaged in oil sabotage as far back as early 2018. More recently, Iranian-backed proxies have hassled international oil tankers, bombed an ExxonMobil operations center in Southern Iraq, targeted a key Saudi pipeline, and attacked a strategically important oil storage hub in the United Arab Emirates. These previous incidents, while signaling the vast vulnerabilities of the Gulf region’s massive energy operations, failed to rise to an emergency because the damages involved were relatively easy to ameliorate. Many considered these early aggressions as an ominous warning sign that more serious attacks could come if tensions continued to escalate. That day has arrived. (...) The attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais seem to give Iran several benefits, including putting the Saudi regime under greater financial pressure, creating a vast political dilemma for President Donald Trump in an election year, and enhancing perceptions of Iran’s hard power in the region."

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"Time to Reboot the Mistake-Riddled U.S.-Taliban Peace Talks"

Auch Max Boot hält einen Neustart der Verhandlungen mit den Taliban für angebracht. Allerdings müssten dabei drei "kritische Fehler" der ersten Gesprächsrunden korrigiert werden. "Mistake #1: Negotiating Without the Afghan Government. (...) The danger of this approach is that it would abandon a U.S. ally in Kabul while leaving the Taliban free to step up their offensive once U.S. troops depart. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani might have suffered the same fate as President Mohammad Najibullah, who was overthrown and eventually killed after the Soviets withdrew their troops in 1989. (...) Mistake #2: No Cease-fire. Another mistake that the administration made was not to insist on a cease-fire as the price of a U.S. troop drawdown. (...) Mistake #3: Signaling Total Troop Withdrawal. It is entirely possible, of course, that the Taliban will not agree to any of these terms. But better no deal than a bad deal. Even without an accord, the United States can probably afford to reduce its troop presence in Afghanistan to around the level — roughly nine thousand troops — from when Trump entered office. (...) President Barack Obama’s troop pullout from Iraq in 2011 offers a cautionary lesson: the resulting power vacuum led to the rise of Islamic State and necessitated the return of U.S. forces."

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"Five Jeez: Five Security Arguments Against Huawei 5G"

Jason Healey erläutert fünf Argumente, die seiner Ansicht nach gegen eine Beteiligung des chinesischen Unternehmens Huawei am Ausbau der 5G-Netze im Westen sprechen. "The first argument is not about risk, but justice. Huawei allegedly stole intellectual property from rivals, such as Cisco, getting subsidized R&D through online theft. Huawei should not profit from the fruits of its crimes (...). The second argument is that Huawei routers may have intentional back doors to allow the Chinese government access. (...) Not to get technical about the third argument, but Huawei code is crap. (...) The worst case, the fourth argument, is that Huawei has not just a backdoor but a kill switch. Huawei gear around the world would operate as normal, year after year, until a precipitating crisis. This risk seems distant as China is today only a competitor, not yet an enemy. But 5G will have a central role in the American economy and society, so the risk, while remote, is potentially massive. (...) The last argument is that the internet is supposed to be free and open, something China believes is an existential threat to the regime. (...) The best path to Huawei-free networks may be to embrace open-source solutions. Projects like O-RAN, the Open Radio Access Network might allow more vendors to enter the market to provide mobile technologies at lesser cost."

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"Can U.S.-Taliban Peace Talks End the War in Afghanistan?"

Selbst im Fall eines erfolgreichen Abschlusses der Friedensverhandlungen zwischen den USA und den Taliban wäre nicht garantiert, dass Afghanistan tatsächlich zur Ruhe kommt, schreibt Amber Duan. "Despite reassurances of progress by Khalilzad, many factors could cause the peace process to fall apart. For one, it is uncertain whether the Afghan government, largely sidelined from the peace process, will recognize and abide by a U.S.-Taliban deal. The Taliban could also walk away from the negotiating table, believing that it can push U.S. troops to withdraw without a deal. (...) Even if the United States and the Taliban reach an agreement, many fear that it will only end U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan and not conflict in the country at large. If Taliban and Afghan government leaders are unable to broker a power-sharing agreement, many experts say, Afghanistan will remain a hub of instability where its citizens fear attacks, and it could once again serve as a haven for al-Qaeda and terrorist groups affiliated with the self-proclaimed Islamic State."

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"Election 2020: Candidates Answer CFR’s Questions"

Der Council on Foreign Relations hat den demokratischen Präsidentschaftskandidaten eine Reihe von außen- und sicherheitspolitischen Fragen zukommen lassen und die bisherigen Antworten in einem Dossier zusammengestellt. "CFR invited the Democratic candidates to articulate their positions on twelve critical foreign policy issues. The questionnaire was sent to all candidates on July 8. Candidates’ answers are posted exactly as they were received."

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"Europe’s Future Will Be Decided in North Africa"

Steven A. Cook empfiehlt der US-Regierung, Nordafrika nicht länger als Nebenschauplatz zu behandeln. Die Stabilität und Sicherheit Europas und damit auch zentrale amerikanische Sicherheitsinteressen werden sich dort entscheiden, so seine Prognose. "It would be an exaggeration to suggest that as goes North Africa so goes Europe but not by much. The United States still has a compelling interest in a Europe that, in the words of the late George H.W. Bush, is 'whole and free.' And among policymakers in Washington, there is increasing concern about Europe’s vulnerability because so much of its natural gas comes from Russia. But 11 percent comes from Algeria. That might not sound like a lot, but some individual European countries are more vulnerable than others. (...) Then there is migration, an issue that has vexed Europe’s leaders, caught as they are between the European Union’s liberal cosmopolitanism and a virulent nationalism that a united, democratic, and prosperous continent was supposed to make irrelevant. (...) For almost two decades, Washington’s focus has been on combating al Qaeda and then the Islamic State in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Extremism in North Africa seems to be an afterthought. It should not be. Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia all have terrorism problems that have affected Europe in frightening ways. (...) Finally, it is not just North Africa’s old colonial powers — France and Italy — that are active there. Russia has a long-standing defense relationship with Algeria, but it has also become more active in Libya. (...) Given how energy, migration, extremism, and Russia’s ambition coincide in North Africa to threaten European stability, it does not seem wise for U.S. policymakers to continue to treat the region as an afterthought."

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"The Role of the International Criminal Court"

Claire Felter hat in diesem Überblicksartikel Informationen über Ursprung, Funktion und Kritikpunkte des Internationalen Strafgerichtshofs (ICC) zusammengetragen. "The International Criminal Court, established in 2002, seeks to hold to account those guilty of the some of the world’s worst crimes. Champions of the court say it deters would-be war criminals, bolsters the rule of law, and offers justice to victims of atrocities. But, since its inception, the court has faced considerable setbacks. It has been unable to gain the support of major powers, including the United States, China, and Russia. Two countries have withdrawn from the court, and many African governments complain that the court has singled out Africa. More recently, the administration of Donald J. Trump has ramped up U.S. opposition to the court, renewing debate over the court’s legitimacy."

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"Farmer Herder Clashes in Chad Follow Familiar Pattern"

John Campbell berichtet über gewalttätige Zusammenstöße zwischen Bauern und Hirten im Tschad, bei denen seit dem 16. Mai 35 Menschen getötet worden seien. "The media reports do not cite religious differences between the herders and farmer — the region in which the clashes took place is predominantly Muslim — though they may exist. Chad itself is about 60 percent Muslim, while the remainder is split between Christians and those of traditional beliefs. However, herders and farmers historically have been from different ethnic groups, and in this case it appears that the herders are Arab and the farmers are black Africans. Hence, an apparent conflict over land use may also have or develop an ethnic dimension. In Nigeria, Chad’s more populous and more crowded neighbor to the southwest, farmer-herder conflict over water and land is a major source of instability and death tolls are far higher than those reported from Chad. (...) The Chadian and Nigerian governments are weak, with N'Djamena and Abuja unable to maintain security over large areas of their territory. Hence, cycles of attacks, cattle rustling, and other criminal activity are often a factor in ongoing conflicts between herders and farmers."

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"Islamist Violence in Burkina Faso Following Familiar Pattern"

Die Strategie der radikalislamischen Terrorgruppen in Burkina Faso folge dem Vorbild von Boko Haram in Nigeria, schreibt John Campbell in einem weiteren Beitrag zu gewalttätigen Konflikten in Afrika. "The groups are attacking Protestant and Catholic churches, killing pastors, priests, and congregants, and also teachers in secular schools. In a May 12 attack on the town of Dablo in northern Burkina Faso, 'gunmen' killed a Catholic priest and five congregants, burned the church and places serving alcohol, and looted other commercial establishments. (...) Similarities to Boko Haram include targeting Christians and teachers in secular schools. The theological basis of both appears to be a similar, extremist variant of Salafist Islamic now thought to be associated with the Islamic State. Based on that theology is a similar hostility to all things western and secular. (...) The extent and nature of the groups’ ties in both countries to outside terror networks in not completely clear. Boko Haram appears to be largely indigenous, with little or no tactical and strategic coordination with the Islamic State or al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), despite similar rhetoric and apparent communication. Though in Burkina Faso there appear to be links with Islamist groups in Mali, details are sparse."

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"Have Sanctions on Russia Changed Putin’s Calculus?"

Andrew Chatzky schreibt, dass der Einfluss der westlichen Sanktionen auf die russische Wirtschaft aufgrund der Wirkung anderer Faktoren nur schwer einzuschätzen sei. Ob die Sanktionen bei den politischen Entscheidungen Moskaus eine Rolle spielen, sei unter Experten ebenfalls umstritten. "There doesn’t appear to have been much immediate effect, disappointing policymakers who hoped sanctions would deter Russian interventionism. (...) Some experts disagree, arguing that sanctions have dissuaded Russia from even more aggressive action in Ukraine. Others believe deteriorating economic conditions have cut into public support for Russian President Vladimir Putin and weakened his position. On the other hand, some suggest sanctions may have actually backfired by boosting elite support for Putin. Still others argue that without clearly stated objectives for Russia to meet for sanctions relief, Russia will view the sanctions regime as indefinite, giving it no incentive to change."

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"Conflict in Nigeria Is More Complicated Than 'Christians vs. Muslims'"

Jack McCaslin, Afrika-Experte am Council on Foreign Relations, meint, dass die Gewalt gegen Christen in Nigeria nicht mit den islamistischen Anschlägen gegen christliche Ziele in Sri Lanka verglichen werden sollte. "The appropriateness of a comparison between Sri Lanka and Nigeria is not clear. Their ethnic make-up, social statistics, and post-colonial experiences are vastly different. Not least, Christians and Muslims are a tiny minority in Sri Lanka, a predominately Buddhist country, while in Nigeria, Christians and Muslims each constitute about half of the population. (...) Today, most Christian deaths are occurring in the Middle Belt, where there are overlapping quarrels over land and water use, ethnicity, and religion — and where Christians are numerous. But when Christians or Muslims are killed in the Middle Belt, it is not clear exactly why. Is it because they are a farmer or a herder? Or because they are ethnically Fulani, many of whom are herders, or of a small ethnic group, who are often farmers? Or is it because they are Muslim, which most Fulani are, or Christian, which those of many small ethnic groups are? These questions are not easily answered."

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"The Overlooked Military Implications of the 5G Debate"

Erica D. Borghard und Shawn W. Lonergan vom Army Cyber Institute in West Point machen auf die militärische und strategische Bedeutung der kommenden 5G-Vernetzung aufmerksam. "The military applications of 5G technology have vital strategic and battlefield implications for the U.S. Historically, the U.S. military has reaped enormous advantages from employing cutting edge technology on the battlefield. 5G technology holds similar innovative potential. Perhaps most obviously, the next generation of telecommunications infrastructure will have a direct impact on improving military communications. However, it will also produce cascading effects on the development of other kinds of military technologies, such as robotics and artificial intelligence. For instance, artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities, such as those used in the Department of Defense’s Project Maven, could be greatly enhanced when leveraging the data processing speeds made possible through 5G infrastructure. (...) The strategic and battlefield implications of who owns and operates 5G infrastructure around the world underscores the national security importance of 5G. The U.S. government and its allies should more systematically assess both the opportunities and risks associated with conducting future military operations in environments that rely on Chinese technology."

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"The Continued Power of Militaries in an Increasingly Autocratic World"

Joshua Kurlantzick nimmt die Proteste in Algerien und Sudan zum Anlass, um darauf hinzuweisen, dass das Militär auch in vielen anderen Ländern der Welt eine zentrale politische Rolle spiele. "Just as other types of autocratic regimes have freer rein today than they did in the 1990s and early 2000s, militaries also face fewer constraints on their power. Democratic powers are distracted by their own deep political problems, populations in some states have soured on democracy and looked to other alternatives, and the U.S. government views regions like Southeast Asia as places home to a growing contest for influence with China — and thus requiring closer ties with almost any government willing to align with Washington. (...) in a world increasingly looking for strongman rule as an alternative to democracy, to solve crises of graft and a lack of political accountability by elected leaders, military men have become more attractive. (...) In places like Egypt, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, or even Brazil, armed forces, too, are again embedding within their military cultures a resistance to civilian oversight — or refusing to change their cultures to embrace civilian oversight."

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"The State of Global Democracy Today is Even Worse Than It Looks: V-Dem’s New Democracy Research"

Joshua Kurlantzick stellt die Ergebnisse einer Studie des Projekts "Varieties of Democracy" vor, der zufolge die "dritte Welle der Autokratisierung" mehr Demokratien betreffe als angenommen. "(...) a fascinating new article, based on groundbreaking new research, suggests that the global retreat of democracy is actually worse than it appears, even to some of its most pessimistic observers. In an article for Democratization, Anna Luhrmann and Staffan Lindberg of the University of Gothenburg, who base their conclusions on the V-Dem, or Varieties of Democracy, Project’s findings, argue that a 'third wave of autocratization' (following the world’s two previous autocratic waves last century), or a move away from democracy, is actually affecting more democracies than was commonly thought, although usually through gradual reversals, with legal facades, rather than an abrupt democratic reversal like a coup."

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"Why Ukraine Might Make a TV Actor Its President"

Stephen Sestanovich erläutert, warum er einen Wahlsieg des TV-Komikers Volodymyr Zelensky bei den kommenden ukrainischen Präsidentschaftswahlen nicht für unwahrscheinlich hält. "Ukraine has long embraced politicians with contradictory personas. Critics and supporters alike wonder whether Zelensky is the character he plays on TV — someone who tells truth to power and takes on corruption — or a tool of oligarchs. A corrupt and controversial billionaire owns the TV channel of Zelensky’s show, and no one seems to believe that it’s a business connection of no political significance. But voters may not care. Poroshenko won the presidency in 2014 as a change agent, while being a billionaire fat cat. In Ukraine, this pattern is an old one. (...) Poroshenko does have one hope. Since independence Ukraine has had two types of presidential elections: ones marked by high mobilization and throw-the-rascals-out rhetoric, and ones in which the message is to throw the rascals in and go back to sleep. (...) After the 2014 Maidan demonstrations, he won an historic time-for-a-change election. Today, almost half of voters say they will not support him under any circumstances. In this setting, he needs a steady-as-you-go, devil-you-know, back-to-sleep mandate."

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"The Golan Heights Should Stay Israeli Forever"

Steven A. Cook hält es anlässlich aktueller Überlegungen über eine offizielle amerikanische Anerkennung der israelischen Besatzung der Golanhöhen für praktisch ausgeschlossen, dass Israel das Gebiet jemals aufgeben wird. "Should the United States recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights? The question has come up in the last few weeks, because Israel is having an election in April. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly been lobbying the Trump administration on the idea of formally acknowledging Israel’s 1981 annexation of Syrian territory. (...) the U.S.-Israeli negotiations are a sideshow for a more fundamental strategic reason. Whether Washington recognizes Israel’s annexation or not, the Israelis are never withdrawing from the Golan Heights — nor should they. (...) the status quo in which the United States simply ignores Israel’s absorption of the area is preferable to American recognition, which would result in a messy and counterproductive international debate that will do nothing other than highlight Israel’s original annexation, spurring opposition when previously there was acquiescence."

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"Climate Change Is a Threat to Military Security"

Benjamin Silliman stellt einen neuen Pentagon-Bericht vor, aus dem hervorgehe, warum der Klimawandel vom US-Militär bereits heute als konkrete Bedrohung wahrgenommen wird. "The report includes a list of selected events where mission related activities at military installations were compromised due to environmental vulnerabilities as well as a brief list of policies taken to mitigate future damages. To quantify the extent to which the military is threatened by climate change, the report tracked seventy-nine priority American domestic installations chosen by their critical operational roles. While the public report was circumspect on details given the sensitive strategic nature of the subject, it did identify climate change as an important and tangible threat to the U.S. military."

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"U.S. Confrontations With Iran and China Among Top Potential Conflicts in 2019, According to CFR Survey"

Der Council on Foreign Relations hat eine Umfrage unter Sicherheitsexperten durchgeführt, die mehrheitlich erwarten, dass im kommenden Jahr die potentiellen Konflikte der USA mit Iran und China im sicherheitspolitischen Vordergrund stehen werden. "The possibility of conflict between the United States and Iran as well as between the United States and China constitute two of the greatest threats to peace in 2019 and warrant heightened focus from policymakers, according to the Council on Foreign Relations’ (CFR) eleventh annual Preventive Priorities Survey, which identifies nine top conflict prevention priorities for the United States in the year ahead. The worsening humanitarian situations in Venezuela and Yemen are also major concerns that call for greater effort so that they do not deteriorate further. The survey, conducted by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action (CPA), asked foreign policy experts to rank thirty ongoing or potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating in the next year and their potential impact on U.S. national interests."

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"Islamist Terrorism Spreads to Eastern Burkina Faso"

Adam Valavanis berichtet über die zunehmende Bedrohung durch radikalislamische Gruppen im Osten des westafrikanischen Burkina Faso. "Islamist terrorism has wracked the Sahel for several years now, but it is a relatively recent phenomenon in Burkina Faso. Its arrival is partly related to the fall from power of former President Blaise Compaore. Popular unrest in response to a failed bid to extend his nearly three decade-long tenure in 2014 pushed Campaore from power. The country’s Western-trained presidential guard, still loyal to the former president, staged a coup to topple the transitional government in 2015. The coup ultimately failed and the presidential guard was subsequently dissolved. The dissolution of the presidential guard left a hole in the Burkinabe security apparatus, providing an opening for jihadist groups to expand in the country. (...) Both the north and east have long been neglected by the central government, which failed to extend the state security apparatus over the region and invest in the local economy. This negligence has allowed organized crime to flourish in the east making possible the expansion of jihadist groups there. The area is also home to dense forests that provide an ideal landscape for militant groups to evade the government."

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"Authoritarians Are Exporting Surveillance Tech, And With it Their Vision for the Internet"

Justin Sherman und Robert Morgus vom Think-Tank New America finden es bedenklich, dass Überwachungstechnologien aus autoritären Staaten wie China weltweite Verbreitung finden. "To be clear, surveillance tools — or at the very least dual-use items that can be used for surveillance — that are developed in the United States and other liberal-democratic markets get exported too. But since the 2013 Wassenaar Arrangement, many of these liberal-democratic economies have sought to limit the flow of digital surveillance tools to human rights-abusing regimes. (...) Exporting surveillance technology (and know-how) to other countries is a way to reinforce the sovereign and controlled vision for the internet — one where governments control the network within their borders, in an effort to control their citizens’ social, political, and economic behavior. (...) If China and Russia seek to export their authoritarian model, expect more exports to these countries in the near future. It is imperative, therefore, that liberal-democracies recognize that the export of surveillance technology is about far more than dollars and cents or human rights abuses. It’s also about promoting an authoritarian model for the internet."

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"Germany Develops Offensive Cyber Capabilities Without A Coherent Strategy of What to Do With Them"

Matthias Schulze von der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) und Sven Herpig von der Stiftung Neue Verantwortung (SNV) werfen der Bundesregierung vor, die Entwicklung offensiver Cyberkriegsfähigkeiten ohne überzeugende Strategie voranzutreiben. "There is currently no strategic debate about what German policymakers want to achieve with its new offensive capabilities. Questions about attribution and appropriate responses have apparently not yet been discussed. It is further unclear whether the political will exists to use these offensive capabilities in a time of crisis. (...) As Germany tries to flex its muscles in cyberspace, allies and adversaries alike will be left to wonder what to expect absent an overall strategy. German policymakers should start a strategic discussion about the country’s role in a contested cyberspace. It needs to explain to its allies how its new offensive tools will work to support multilateral frameworks like NATO, the EU and the UN. Germany also needs to signal to hostile cyber actors what behavior it deems inappropriate, and how it will likely respond if certain red-lines are crossed."

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"A Decade On, Will There Ever Be Justice for the Mumbai Attacks?"

Bei einer Serie von Anschlägen im indischen Mumbai wurden vor zehn Jahren mindestens 166 Menschen durch Mitglieder der in Pakistan ansässigen Terrororganisation Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) getötet. Alyssa Ayres stellt fest, dass viele der mutmaßlich verantwortlichen Extremisten in Pakistan bis heute nicht verurteilt worden sind. Sie empfiehlt eine Reihe von Büchern und Beiträgen, die sich näher mit dieser Thematik auseinandersetzen. "(...) the trial of seven members of this terrorist group has been stalled in Pakistan for years; earlier this year, former (and ousted) Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif made headlines (and controversy in Pakistan) for publicly acknowledging the activity of this group, and asking publicly why the trial could not be completed. On November 25, 2018, the United States issued a new 'Rewards for Justice' incentive of $5 million for 'information about the individuals responsible for these [Mumbai] attacks.' (...) In the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an international collective focused on denying financial flows to terrorist groups, Pakistan was placed on the 'gray list' in June 2018. U.S. security assistance has been suspended for nearly a year due to Pakistan’s inaction on various terror groups operating from its soil."

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"Trump’s Cuts to Central America Aid Will Lead to More Caravans"

Die USA stehen gegenwärtig angesichts einer neuen "Karawane" von Migranten aus Mittelamerika vor ihrer eigenen "Flüchtlingskrise". Shannon K. O'Neil schreibt, dass die US-Regierung bei der Bekämpfung der Migrationsursachen bisher auf finanzielle Hilfsprogramme gesetzt habe. US-Präsident Trump habe den betroffenen Ländern nun allerdings mit Kürzungen gedroht. "As several thousand Central American migrants moved through Honduras, Guatemala and into Mexico on their way toward the United States, President Trump tweeted that he would begin cutting off foreign aid to these countries. Given Congress’s power of the purse, acting on these threats is likely illegal. More importantly, however, it would be counterproductive. Not only would such a pullback swell this human tide, it would squander the hard-earned gains and lessons of a decade-long effort to make Central American nations better places to live than to leave."

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"NATO’s Trident Juncture Exercises: What to Know"

Die NATO wird mit dem Manöver "Trident Juncture" in Norwegen ihre größte Truppenübung seit dem Ende des Kalten Krieges durchführen. Jonathan Masters schreibt, dass es sich bei dem Manöver auch um eine "Demonstration der Stärke" handeln soll. "The aggressor in the simulation is fictitious, but the setting and the scale of the exercises point clearly in one direction. Tensions between NATO and Russia, which shares an Arctic border with Norway, are running high. In the last five years, Russia has annexed Crimea, destabilized eastern Ukraine, provided military aid to a brutal regime in Syria, meddled in Western elections, and either walked away from or allegedly violated major multilateral security treaties. 'This exercise is part of NATO’s ongoing effort since the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine to reassure member states bordering Russia that the Alliance will defend them against Russian aggression,' says CFR’s James M. Goldgeier, an expert on Eurasian security."

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"U.S. Must Shed Its Illusions About Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince"

Richard N. Haass meint, dass die USA sich nach der Tötung des saudi-arabischen Journalisten Jamal Khashoggi nicht unbedingt von Saudi-Arabien, in jedem Fall aber von Kronprinz Mohammad bin Salman distanzieren sollten. "The president claims the US must stand by MbS because his country is an important and valuable ally that buys significant amounts of arms, is helpful in Syria and in the fight against terrorism, and is a partner versus Iran. Saudi Arabia still produces about one out of every 10 barrels of oil in the world. Its investments are large and important to a number of businesses and projects. This is all true, but it overlooks the fact that the impulsive and reckless crown prince often does things that harm or fail to help US interests. (...) There are, however, some lessons from these experiences that suggest what could and should be done. First, it would be wise to distinguish between Saudi Arabia and MbS. This would argue for holding off anything that smacks of an unconditional embrace of MbS. There should be no invites to the White House or Downing Street. (...) MbS has placed his own future in jeopardy, and other members of the royal family will come to understand that US and western support for him cannot be taken for granted. It is up to the Saudis to sort out their succession. It would be ironic if an action apparently carried out to strengthen his control over his country had just the opposite effect. But it is possible all the same."

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"Disinformation on Steroids"

Die beiden Rechtsexperten Robert Chesney und Danielle K. Citron erläutern in diesem "Cyber Brief" für den Council on Foreign Relations, warum sie Bildfälschungen durch sogenannte "Deep Fakes" für ein ernstes Problem für demokratische Regierungen und für die internationale Ordnung halten. Sie empfehlen einige konkrete Gegenmaßnahmen. "As this technology spreads, the ability to produce bogus yet credible video and audio content will come within the reach of an ever-larger array of governments, nonstate actors, and individuals. As a result, the ability to advance lies using hyperrealistic, fake evidence is poised for a great leap forward. (...) Enhancing current efforts by the National Science Foundation, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) could spur breakthroughs that lead to scalable and robust detection capacities and digital provenance solutions. In the meantime, the current wave of interest in improving the extent to which social media companies seek to prevent or remove fraudulent content has pushed companies to take advantage of available detection technologies — flagging suspect content for further scrutiny, providing clear warnings to users, removing known deep fakes, and sharing such content in an effort to help prevent it from being reposted elsewhere (following a model used to limit the spread of child pornography). While by no means a complete solution, all of this would be a useful step forward."

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