US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Council on Foreign Relations


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"As Germany Moves Toward a More Offensive Posture in Cyberspace, It Will Need a Vulnerability Equities Process"

Sven Herpig von der Stiftung Neue Verantwortung in Berlin schreibt, dass Deutschland mit der Gründung des Bundeswehrkommandos Cyber- und Informationsraum neben defensiven Aufgaben auch offensive Reaktionen auf Cyberangriffe verfolgt. Dafür müssten in vielen Fällen Sicherheitslücken im Netz genutzt werden, deren schnelle Schließung eigentlich im öffentlichen Interesse liege. "This puts governments, like Germany’s, in a bind. The vulnerabilities it seeks to exploit for its offensive purposes could also be used by state actors, criminals, and others against it as well as domestic companies, utilities and its citizens. (...) To address this challenge, Germany needs a regulatory framework, one which is proposed in a new report supported by the Transatlantic Cyber Forum. The report proposes that a German vulnerabilities equities process (VEP) be weighed towards immediate vulnerability disclosure, with retention being authorized under specific circumstances and only for limited periods of time."

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"The Return of U.S. Sanctions on Iran: What to Know"

Die USA haben ihre vor zwei Jahren aufgehobenen Sanktionen gegen den Iran wie angekündigt wieder eingesetzt. Der Council on Foreign Relations hat Informationen über die umstrittene Maßnahme zusammengetragen. "The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the JCPOA on May 8 reinstates two sets of sanctions. The first, coming into effect August 7, includes restrictions on: Iran’s purchase of U.S. currency; Iran’s trade in gold and other precious metals; and the sale to Iran of auto parts, commercial passenger aircraft, and related parts and services. The second set of sanctions, which comes back into force on November 4, restricts sales of oil and petrochemical products from Iran. The Trump administration has so far rejected requests by foreign governments and companies that would allow them to continue to conduct business with Iran."

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"A Glimpse of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Under Imran Khan?"

Der Oppositionspolitiker Imran Khan könnte nach dem Wahlsieg seiner Partei neuer Premierminister Pakistans werden. Alyssa Ayres verweist auf eine Rede, in der der frühere Cricket-Spieler seine außenpolitischen Ziele erläutert hat. "For U.S. leaders, improvement in U.S.-Pakistan ties will be possible once a clear commitment to tackling terrorism becomes more apparent. This will surely also rank as priority number one for Indian interlocutors as well; and for Afghans, too. Unfortunately for all three countries, it’s also the issue that Khan, a civilian politician widely described as the military’s 'favored' candidate this time around, would be least likely to confront. So despite the positive signals from this speech, Khan will have a hard time delivering better ties with Afghanistan, India, and the United States without addressing the terrorism issue writ large. And while Khan struck a positive, forward-looking tone in the speech, it’s important to remember that this is the same politician who has been highly critical of the United States and U.S. counterterrorism priorities in particular. It looks like a rocky road ahead."

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"North Korea’s Power Structure"

Eleanor Albert wirft einen genaueren Blick auf die Machtstrukturen des Regimes in Nordkorea, das seit Jahrzehnten von der Kim-Familie beherrscht wird. "Experts say Kim Jong-un has deftly navigated his rise to power. While drawing on nostalgia for his grandfather’s era and grandiose persona, 'Kim Jong-un is also determined to be seen as a 'modern leader' of a 'modern North Korea,' writes the Brookings Institution’s Jung H. Pak. Economic development is fashioned as the vehicle for this modernization. (...) CNA’s Gause says 'the economy is Kim Jong-un’s strategy,' adding that all of his recent efforts at diplomacy are 'designed to hook into the South Korean economic engine' and solidify his legacy. Experts say North Korea is entering a critical period of change under a regime that has by and large resisted rapid change and outside influence. Even as the ultimate authority, they say, Kim will need to cultivate the support of enough elites and successfully manage the pace of change to meet his goal of making North Korea a strong and prosperous nation."

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"Could European Populism Go Nuclear on NATO?"

Der Aufstieg populistischer Parteien und eine zunehmend antiamerikanische Stimmung in Europa könnten bald zu ernsten Forderungen nach einem Abzug der dort stationierten US-Atomwaffen führen, meint Stewart M. Patrick. "The surge of populism in Germany, the backbone of the European project, can do the most damage to the shared nuclear deterrent. (...) In its platform, AfD explicitly calls for the withdrawal of all NATO troops and nuclear weapons from German territory. With the near collapse of the current German government over immigration, the possibility of a rise to power by AfD or a party with similar views is no longer far-fetched. Like in Germany, the specter of populism has become very real in Italy, with the anti-establishment coalition formed by the League and 5-Star parties taking power. This could spell trouble for the NATO shared deterrent, given the broad unpopularity of nuclear weapons in the country. (...) If the Pentagon truly wants to adhere to its designs to expand its arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe as part of the NATO shared nuclear deterrent, it needs to start coming up with contingency plans. At the very least, President Trump should stop antagonizing NATO allies and try to preserve what little good will remains toward the U.S. agenda."

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"Global Peacekeeping Operations Overwhelmingly African and in Africa"

In einer neuen Auflistung internationaler UN-Einsätze durch das Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) wird John Campbell zufolge deutlich, dass die meisten UN-Friedensmissionen in Afrika stattfinden. "Africa hosts the largest number, with twenty-five missions. For perspective, there were eighteen in Europe, nine in the Middle East, six in Asia, and five in the Western Hemisphere. African peacekeeping missions accounted for some 75 percent of all peacekeeping personnel, with African countries accounting for the majority of those troops. Either immediately or over time, almost all peacekeeping missions involve the UN Security Council. Furthermore, over 60 percent of all Security Council resolutions, beyond just peacekeeping, concerned Africa at one point. The predominance of African peacekeeping operations and Africa in general is a central argument among those who advocate for a permanent African seat on the Security Council."

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"The Global Implications of Justice Kennedy’s Retirement"

Der angekündigte Rücktritt von Richter Anthony Kennedy aus dem Obersten Gerichtshof in Washington hat in den USA eine heftige innenpolitische Debatte ausgelöst. Stewart M. Patrick macht darauf aufmerksam, dass der Rücktritt auch internationale Folgen habe könnte, da sich Kennedy im Gegensatz zu seinen konservativen Kollegen immer für ein "produktives Verhältnis" der USA zum Völkerrecht eingesetzt habe. "Whoever succeeds him will likely take a more conservative approach, setting up a potential confrontation between a sovereignty-obsessed America and the international rule of law. The proper place of international law in U.S. law and jurisprudence — the subject of the legal field known as 'foreign relations law' — is a political minefield. It generates vigorous, sometimes vituperative debate among constitutional scholars, including sitting Supreme Court justices. (...) Those conservatives are now ascendant in the Trump administration, and they are determined that Kennedy’s successor not repeat the latter’s apostasy. Jay Sekulow, a member of Trump’s legal team who is helping the president screen potential picks to replace Kennedy, made that clear Wednesday evening. Speaking on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show, he declared that any successful candidate for the Supreme Court must reject any reference to foreign courts."

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"U.S. Military Presence in Sub-Saharan Africa Will Likely Decline"

Zahl und Umfang der Antiterroroperationen amerikanischer Spezialeinheiten in Subsahara-Afrika sollen nach dem Willen des US-Verteidigungsministeriums in den kommenden Monaten offenbar deutlich reduziert werden. Auslöser dieser Entscheidung ist eine offizielle Untersuchung, die nach dem Tod von vier US-Soldaten bei einem Überfall in Niger im vergangenen Oktober eingeleitet wurde. "At the time, especially in Congress, there was concern about the U.S. presence in Niger and personnel's involvement with fighting rather than exclusively with training and advising. The Department of Defense subsequently conducted a thorough investigation, which, according to the New York Times, will likely result in a reduction of the number of Special Forces in Africa. AFRICOM has reportedly been asked to develop scenarios for counterterrorism operations in Africa if Special Forces were reduced by 25 percent over 18 months and 50 percent over 36 months. Citing Defense Department sources, the Times also reports that there is concern that Special Forces, numbering about 7,300 in 92 countries around the world, are over-stretched. There are about 1,200 Special Forces personnel currently in Africa."

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"Thirty Years of U.S. Arms Sales to Middle East Endogenous to Unstable Oil Prices, Research Shows"

Amy Myers Jaffe hat in einer Studie für das Magazin Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy (EEEP) zusammen mit Mahmoud El-Gamal untersucht, ob es zwischen den amerikanischen Waffenexporten in die Region, instabilen Ölpreisen und ausbrechenden Konflikten einen Zusammenhang gibt. Ihr Fazit lautet: "In our EEEP article, we argue that geopolitical events that are often considered exogenous to the debt-driven financial boom and bust global economic cycle are part of an endogenous and self-perpetuating meta-cycle, linked by high petrodollar recycling during periods of high oil prices that typically accompany high economic growth periods, like the one seen in the early 2010s. Petrodollar recycling takes many forms, including rising military spending and buildups. (...) A significant part of Arab countries’ military equipment (and Russia’s) used in recent conflicts was accumulated during oil boom years following the Iraqi invasion (2003-2007) and during the Arab Spring uprising (2011-2013). Last year escalations in conflict across the Middle East from Yemen to Northern Iraq helped raise the price of oil on the heels of the major down cycle of 2014-2015. (...) Forty years of military buildups have failed to bring peace and economic prosperity to the Middle East. While it is unlikely that the Middle East oil exporters will intentionally escalate regional proxy wars in a manner that leads to the destruction of oil facilities, the nature of war can be irrational and unpredictable, hence explaining the return of the geopolitical risk premium to the price of oil."

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"Are Cold War Spy-Craft Norms Fading?"

Der frühere CIA-Mitarbeiter Jack Devine wirft Russland vor, bisherige Gepflogenheiten der internationalen Geheimdienstarbeit immer häufiger zu missachten. "American and Russian intelligence services since roughly the Stalin era held a gentlemen’s agreement, often referred to as Moscow rules, that limited how we engaged with each other. Under these rules, and the prevailing threat of mutually assured destruction, we agreed not to attack each other physically and not to engage in certain types of activities, such as counterfeiting each other’s currency and meddling in each other’s political internal affairs. (...) Russia seems unconstrained by any norms, whether they be Moscow rules, risk aversion, or rule of law and tenets of common decency. The list of Russia’s alleged transgressions keeps mounting: unrestrained bombings of civilians in Syria, meddling in elections in Eastern and Western Europe and United States, a systemic doping program for Olympic athletes, and assassination campaigns against domestic dissidents, whistle-blowers, human rights activists, independent journalists, and defectors from its intelligence services; Sergei Skripal certainly fits the profile. The methods, too; slow, cruel deaths by exposure to carefully crafted toxins are alarming to many."

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"Al-Qaeda’s Resurrection"

Nach Ansicht von Bruce Hoffman ist es an der Zeit, die Al-Qaida erneut als weltweit größte Terrorbedrohung einzustufen. Die Terrororganisation sei der große Gewinner der Umwälzungen des Arabischen Frühlings im Nahen Osten. "While the self-proclaimed Islamic State has dominated the headlines and preoccupied national security officials for the past four years, al-Qaeda has been quietly rebuilding. Its announcement last summer of another affiliate — this one dedicated to the liberation of Kashmir — coupled with the resurrection of its presence in Afghanistan and the solidification of its influence in Syria, Yemen, and Somalia, underscores the resiliency and continued vitality of the United States’ preeminent terrorist enemy. (...) ISIS can no longer compete with al-Qaeda in terms of influence, reach, manpower, or cohesion. In only two domains is ISIS currently stronger than its rival: the power of its brand and its presumed ability to mount spectacular terrorist strikes in Europe. But the latter is a product of Zawahiri’s strategic decision to prohibit external operations in the West so that al-Qaeda’s rebuilding can continue without interference."

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"Trump’s Middle East Strategy Is Totally Boring"

Steven A. Cook erkennt in der Nahostpolitik Donald Trumps bei näherem Hinsehen eine Strategie, die auch von früheren US-Präsidenten verfolgt worden sei. "(...) upon closer inspection, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s recent trip to the region reveals a coherent underlying plan. And in contrast to the policies that have destabilized domestic politics or raised questions in Europe, North America, and Asia about U.S. commitments to mutual defense and free trade — hallmarks of the post–World War II and post–Cold War orders — there is a certain familiarity to the Trump administration’s approach to the Middle East. In fact, it restores a regional strategy that has long had broad bipartisan support and was once the standard for U.S. presidents — just not the most recent ones. (...) So, what are these policies? There are three basic components: fighting terrorism, containing Iran, and supporting Israel. That’s why Tillerson’s meetings in Cairo with Sisi and Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry were the easiest of the trip. That is because the Trump team is reviving a policy of supporting 'our bastards' so long as they share American interests."

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"The Rise of Islamist Groups in Malaysia and Indonesia"

In Malaysia und Indonesien gewinnen islamistische Gruppen Joshua Kurlantzick zufolge immer größeren politischen Einfluss. Beide Länder gelten bisher als multiethnische und multireligiöse Modellbeispiele der friedlichen Koexistenz eines bürgerlichen Rechtswesens mit islamischen Traditionen. "But since the beginning of this decade, conservative and often Islamist groups, which slowly amassed power in the late 2000s, have gained greater influence in the two countries over the law and politics. They have done so by organizing within democratic politics in Indonesia, and to some extent Malaysia, through grassroots campaigns and local electoral victories. Still, their goals — such as implementing laws based on sharia and rolling back protections for religious minorities — are often at odds with secularism and democracy. Now, in the run-up to Malaysia’s 2018 national elections and Indonesia’s 2019 presidential election, these groups could play central roles in determining the countries’ paths and could possibly undermine hard-won political and legal gains, making the two states less reliable U.S. security and economic partners."

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"Mapping Islamist Terrorist Incidents in Africa for 2017"

Das Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) hat eine neue Karte mit den Aktivitäten militanter islamistischer Gruppen in Afrika veröffentlicht. "According to its review, the number of fatalities dropped in 2017, but the number of events associated with Islamist groups increased. The decline in total fatalities owes much to the decline in fatalities caused by Boko Haram, which nevertheless remains the most deadly terrorist operation in sub-Saharan Africa, and, as the ACSS concludes, shows the groups continuing resiliency. (...) The ACSS map also illustrates an important reality. Though Islamist terrorism often dominates the headlines, there are really only three centers of it in sub-Saharan Africa: Somalia (with spill-over into Kenya), Mali (with spill-over into Burkina Faso), and the Lake Chad Basin (chiefly in Nigeria, but also in Niger, Cameroon, and Chad). The rest of sub-Saharan Africa — geographically an enormous region — is almost entirely free of it."

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"Modern Slavery - An exploration of its root causes and the human toll."!/section1/item-1

Der Council on Foreign Relations hat sich in diesem interaktiven Überblick mit dem Phänomen der modernen Sklaverei beschäftigt. Weltweit werden demnach über 40 Millionen Menschen auf diese Weise missbraucht. "Slavery occurs in the gulags of North Korea, on the battlefields of Iraq and Syria, and in the brothels of Eastern Europe. Its victims are children forced into military action in the Democratic Republic of Congo or born into debt bondage at brick kilns in India, young men laboring on rickety fishing boats in Thailand, and children and women pressed into domestic servitude in Haiti. (...) Slavery is most prevalent in impoverished countries and those with vulnerable minority communities, though it also exists in developed countries. Tens of thousands toil in slave-like conditions in industries such as mining, farming, and factories, producing goods for domestic consumption or export to more prosperous nations. Profiteers prey on vulnerable people and operate with relative impunity. Slavery today usually takes one of the following forms: bonded labor, domestic servitude, sexual exploitation, or forced marriage."

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"Year in Review"

Der Council on Foreign Relations hat ein Dossier mit Beiträgen zu den vorherrschenden außen- und sicherheitspolitischen Themen von 2017 und zu möglichen Schwerpunkten des Jahres 2018 zusammengestellt.

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"Trump Security Strategy a Study in Contrasts"

Max Boot schreibt in seiner Analyse, dass die praktische Bedeutung der neuen Nationalen Sicherheitsstrategie des US-Präsidenten nicht überschätzt werden sollte. "No senior decision-maker has ever confronted a crisis by looking at a copy of the NSS to find out what to do. NSSs are not even important in guiding spending and procurement decisions; they make no attempt, as real strategy documents should, to reconcile ends and means — to suggest which programs should be funded and which defunded to achieve the results desired. NSSs are really wish lists of capabilities and laundry lists of threats. They are worth paying attention to mainly because they represent an attempt by an administration to bring some intellectual coherence to the day-to-day press of decisions on myriad matters."

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"Why the Time Is Right to Talk to the Taliban"

Eine Mehrheit der Experten und militärischen Entscheidungsträger in den USA und bei der NATO ist Courtney Cooper zufolge zu der Überzeugung gelangt, dass der seit Jahren andauernde Konflikt in Afghanistan nicht militärisch gewonnen werden könne. Deshalb sollte ein neuer Versuch unternommen werden, echte Friedensgespräche unter Beteiligung der Taliban in die Wege zu leiten. "Successive U.S. administrations have held mixed positions on peace talks with the Taliban, but none of them prioritized efforts to conclude the conflict through a political process. The George W. Bush administration reportedly refused a Taliban offer of surrender in 2002. The Obama administration, following its 2009 decision to surge U.S. troops to fight the Taliban, publicly signaled its openness to supporting talks between Kabul and the Taliban, promoted confidence-building measures, and facilitated the establishment of a short-lived Taliban political office in Qatar. In his August speech, President Donald J. Trump appeared open to a political settlement, but only if it followed U.S. military gains against the group. (...) There are several arguments for delaying efforts to set the foundation for an Afghan peace process, but they all overlook the larger costs of extending — or even escalating — the conflict."

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"Tracking State-Sponsored Cyber Operations"

Adam Segal stellt eine neue Datenbank des Council on Foreign Relations vor, in der Informationen über weltweite staatliche Cyberspace-Operationen erfasst werden. "We’re launching a Cyber Operations Tracker, a database of the publicly known state-sponsored cyber incidents that have occurred since 2005. The database, which draws on previous work done by CSIS, Florian Roth, and, contains almost two hundred entries of state-sponsored cyber incidents or threat actors for which data is publicly available. Want to know who is spying on whom? Looking for the number of times North Korea has been publicly denounced for its cyber operations? Heard of Equation Group but would like to know more about it? The tracker can help answer all of these questions."

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"New Interactive Report Traces the Role of Women in Global Peacemaking"

Der Council on Foreign Relations hat eine interaktive Webseite zusammengestellt, auf der die positive Rolle von Frauen in internationalen Friedensprozessen hervorgehoben wird. "'Women’s Participation in Peace Processes' explores women’s roles in major peace agreements from 1990 to the present. 'From Kabul to Kinshasa, women continue to be marginalized and excluded from peace and security processes, despite facing unique threats to their safety and well-being,' says Rachel Vogelstein, CFR’s Douglas Dillon senior fellow and director of the Women and Foreign Policy program. The interactive feature includes case studies, data visualizations, personal stories, and policy analysis."

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"VICE Special Report: A World in Disarray"

Vice hat ausgehend vom Buch "A World in Disarray" von Richard Haass ein 80-minütiges Video veröffentlicht, in dem die internationale Sicherheitslage anhand einiger Fallstudien analysiert wird. Der Council on Foreign Relations hat als Ergänzung einen Text mit begleitenden Anmerkungen des Autors ins Netz gestellt. "A World in Disarray, a VICE special report, is a feature-length documentary that draws on the book of the same name by CFR President Richard N. Haass. The film explores the disorder in today’s international landscape, how it arose, and how it plays out in four areas of conflict and tension: Syria, Ukraine, the South China Sea, and North Korea."

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"Southeast Asia’s Democratic Decline in the America First Era"

In vielen Ländern Südostasiens befinde sich die Demokratie auf dem Rückzug, stellt Joshua Kurlantzick fest. Die US-Regierung unter Präsident Trump sollte diese Entwicklung aus sicherheitspolitischen und wirtschaftlichen Gründen deutlich ernster nehmen, so seine Mahnung. "The region’s seemingly successful democratization in the 1990s and 2000s was seen as a model for other developing nations, but now its democratic collapse reflects trends sweeping the globe. (...) The Trump administration’s America First policies, which will be on display during the president’s upcoming trip to Asia, have only emboldened autocrats in Southeast Asia — and in other parts of the world. Yet the White House’s disinterest in supporting democracy is a mistake. In the long term, democratic backsliding will imperil freedoms for people suffering under increasingly autocratic rule. But it could also impair regional and global security; as mature democracies tend to work most effectively with the United States. Those countries operating under the whim of a strongman are less reliable partners."

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"Just When You Thought Southeast Asia’s Democratic Regression Couldn’t Get Any Worse …"

Joshua Kurlantzick hat in den vergangenen fünf Jahren verfolgt, wie die Demokratie in Südostasien immer stärker zurückgedrängt worden ist. In seinem zweiteiligen Blogpost verweist er auf die jüngsten Demonstrationen autoritärer Herrschaft in Thailand, Myanmar und Kambodscha. "Ten years ago, Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia all were young democracies — or, at least, hybrid regimes that seemed to be making progress toward full democracy. By the early 2010s, Myanmar had joined the list of possible success stories. (...) But recent years have been brutally unkind to Southeast Asian democrats. (...) There seem to be few signs of a better future for Southeast Asian democrats, at least in the near term. Indeed, if the past five years have been terrible for democracy in Southeast Asia, the next five look even more uncertain."

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"Europe’s Patchwork Approach to Cyber Defense Needs a Complete Overhaul"

Annegret Bendiek, Mitarbeiterin an der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) mit dem Schwerpunkt Europäische Cybersicherheit, moniert, dass die EU-Strategie zur Abwehr von Cyberangriffen bislang ein "Flickenteppich" aus guten Intentionen, Richtlinien und einer "Alphabet-Suppe" organisatorischer Abkürzungen sei. "Europe’s approach to cyber defense is at a crossroads. Russia is getting more aggressive in its active measures campaigns, and rudimentary but effective cyber operations, such as WannaCry, can temporarily knock out critical infrastructure. It is likely that the EU will face a cyber-related crisis and its current organizational structure is ill-equipped to respond to the challenge. Reforms are needed now to ensure that Europe can properly defend itself."

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"What Is the Far Right’s Threat to National Security?"

Nach dem Aufmarsch bewaffneter Demonstranten in Charlottesville hat sich Zachary Laub mit dem niederländische Politikwissenschaftler Cas Mudde über die Rolle rechtsextremer Gruppen in den USA und deren potentielle Bedrohung der öffentlichen Sicherheit unterhalten. Dabei äußert sich Mudde auch zur unterschiedlichen Herangehensweise in europäischen Ländern: "Laub: 'Is there anything that U.S. law enforcement or policymakers can learn from Europe’s experience dealing with the far right?' Mudde: 'There’s a different legal context in the U.S., because of the First Amendment, than in Europe, where freedom of speech is significantly restricted with regard to racism and anti-Semitism. I prefer the U.S. way. But one thing European governments do [is control the use of force]. One of the most upsetting parts of the Charlottesville fiasco was that [Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe said] that the police were outgunned. That’s unacceptable; the basis of the state is having a monopoly on violence.'"

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"North Korea’s Military Capabilities"

Eleanor Albert gibt in diesem Hintergrundbericht des Council on Foreign Relations einen aktuellen Überblick über die militärischen Fähigkeiten Nordkoreas. "North Korea ranks fourth among the world’s largest militaries with more than 1.1 million personnel in the country’s armed forces, accounting for nearly 5 percent of its total population. (...) According to a 2015 U.S. Department of Defense report [PDF] and a 2016 South Korean Ministry of National Defense report [PDF], the North Korean military has more than 1,300 aircraft, nearly 300 helicopters, 430 combatant vessels, 250 amphibious vessels, 70 submarines, 4,300 tanks, 2,500 armored vehicles, and 5,500 multiple-rocket launchers. Experts also estimate that North Korea has upwards of one thousand missiles of varying ranges."

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"Become the Swiss Army Knife of U.S. Foreign Policy?"

Der US-Kongress hat ein neues Gesetz zur möglichen Verschärfung der Sanktionen gegen Russland auf den Weg gebracht. Robert Kahn fragt, ob die USA dieses außenpolitische Werkzeug möglicherweise zu häufig einsetzen. "Sanctions have been a centerpiece of economic statecraft in both Democratic and Republican administrations, and especially after 9/11 with a new focus on financial sanctions in countries as diverse as Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Yet now more than ever, sanctions policy appears to have become a policy of first resort. The critical question is whether we are getting the balance right, and whether their extensive use presents long-term risk to the global economy. (...) looking forward, we should be concerned that the pendulum will swing too far, that sanctions become too easy an option. There are some things for which a Swiss army knife is the perfect tool, but for appendicitis I’d rather see a doctor."

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"South Korea at the Crossroads"

Der Council on Foreign Relations empfiehlt das Buch "South Korea at the Crossroads" von Scott A. Snyder, der sich mit den vergangenen 50 Jahren südkoreanischer Außenpolitik und den heutigen strategischen Optionen des Landes beschäftigt hat. Das Fazit Snyders lautet demnach: "Despite its rise as a leader in international financial, development, and climate change forums, South Korea will likely still require the commitment of the United States to guarantee its security. Although China is a tempting option, Snyder argues that only the United States is both credible and capable in this role. South Korea remains vulnerable relative to other regional powers in northeast Asia despite its rising profile as a middle power, and it must ultimately balance the contradiction of autonomy and alliance."

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"Reducing Tensions Between Russia and NATO"

Marten, Politikwissenschaftlerin an der Columbia University, empfiehlt der NATO in diesem Bericht für den Council on Foreign Relations, die Mitgliedsländer in Europa stärker zu unterstützen. Zudem sollte die NATO Russland mit Worten und Taten versichern, dass das Bündnis rein defensive Ziele verfolge. Zu den konkreten Vorschlägen Martens gehören folgende Punkte: "Treat Russian leaders and the Russian state with public respect even if tensions rise. (...) Formally announce that the United States does not seek to impose regime change on Russia and ask Putin to reciprocate, proposing a new accord to limit cyber attacks against civilian targets in peacetime. (...) Explicitly tie planned deployment of interceptor missiles at the U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) system in Poland to Iran fulfilling its commitments in the nuclear nonproliferation deal reached in 2015. (...) Publicly state that the United States believes Ukraine has not currently met NATO membership standards and has a long way to go. Reestablish regional military and arms control negotiations, especially in the Baltics."

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"Fifteen Questions Trump Should Answer About His 'Safe Zones'"

US-Präsident Trump plant offenbar, sich für die Schaffung sogenannter "Safe Zones" in und um Syrien einzusetzen. Micah Zenko, der sich seit Jahren mit den Voraussetzungen und möglichen Folgen von Flugverbotszonen und Sicherheitszonen auseinandersetzt, formuliert 15 konkrete Fragen, die seiner Ansicht nach vom Weißen Haus beantwortet werden müssten, bevor diese "neue, umfangreiche und schlecht durchdachte" militärische Mission umgesetzt werden sollte. Zenkos erste Frage lautet: "What is the ultimate political objective of the safe zones? For example, will they provide temporary humanitarian refuge for internally displaced persons, or leverage for a brokered peace agreement?"

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Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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