US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

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18.08.2019

"Is India Becoming a Nuclear Weapons Superpower?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/india-becoming-nuclear-weapons-superpower-74521

Einer neuen Studie des Nuclear Information Project der Federation of American Scientists zufolge hat Indien bisher bis zu 140 Atomsprengköpfe produziert. "In addition, 'India continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal, with at least five new weapon systems now under development to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery systems, and sea-based systems.' Unlike the missile-centric U.S. and Russian nuclear forces, India still heavily relies on bombers, perhaps not unexpected for a nation that fielded its first nuclear-capable ballistic missile in 2003. (...) India’s nuclear missile force is only fifteen years old, but it already has four types of land-based ballistic missiles: the short-range Prithvi-II and Agni-I, the medium-range Agni-II and the intermediate-range Agni-III. 'At least two other longer-range Agni missiles are under development: the Agni-IV and Agni-V,' says the report. 'It remains to be seen how many of these missile types India plans to fully develop and keep in its arsenal. Some may serve as technology development programs toward longer-range missiles.'"

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18.08.2019

"100 Billion Reasons Why: Why Australia Said No to American Missiles Aimed At China"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/100-billion-reasons-why-why-australia-said-no-american-missiles-ai
med-china-74206

Michael Peck erklärt, warum die USA bei ihren Plänen zur Stationierung neuer Mittelstreckenraketen in Asien nicht auf Australien zählen sollten. "Australia has a close defense relationship with America. But that doesn’t mean Oz wants to jeopardize its relations with China by allowing the United States to station missiles on its territory. (...) why isn’t Australia jumping at the opportunity to be a U.S. missile base? Some Australians might object to making Australia a bigger target in a potential U.S.-China conflict (bonus question: will these American missiles be capable of carrying nuclear warheads?). But most important is Australia’s hundred billion-dollar trade relationship with China."

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17.08.2019

"The Ultimate Iran Nightmare: Not a War with America, But a Civil War"

http://https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ultimate-iran-nightmare-not-war-america-civil-war-74426

Michael Rubin vom American Enterprise Institute schreibt, dass die iranische Führung weniger eine Konfrontation mit den USA als innenpolitische Unruhen in der Peripherie des Landes fürchte. Er macht auf historische Vorläufer eines möglichen Bürgerkriegs in Iran aufmerksam und schreibt: "Simply put, in Iran, the past is prologue. When the state is weak or governments collapse, restive minorities along the periphery rebel. (...) as Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s health waivers and he approaches his final months or years, the central government’s control over the periphery appears increasingly weak. The vacuum which will follow his death will likely mean a number of simultaneous and indigenous uprisings. And, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will remain on paper a formidable force, with the regime’s leadership vacant and its commander-in-chief functions absent, it will likely be faced with simultaneous indigenous uprisings and insurgencies in Khuzistan, Kurdistan and Baluchistan. It is unclear, however, how effective the IRGC could be."

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10.08.2019

"Germany’s Pilots Don’t Have Enough Warplanes to Fly"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/germany’s-pilots-don’t-have-enough-warplanes-fly-72476

Michael Peck berichtet über die Ausstattungsprobleme der deutschen Luftstreitkräfte, die mittlerweile auch die Ausbildung der Piloten erheblich behinderten. "'The Luftwaffe is at a low point,' Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz, the Luftwaffe’s chief of staff, said last month. 'Aircraft are grounded due to a lack of spare parts, or they aren’t even on site since they’re off for maintenance.' Germany’s armed forces, dreaded during World War II and respected during the Cold War, have been ridiculed in recent years as budget cuts have resulted in a military that seems barely functional. In the summer of 2018, only ten of the Luftwaffe’s 128 Eurofighters were rated fit to fly because of spare parts shortages. In February 2019, 'on average only 39 of Germany’s 128 Eurofighter jets and 26 of its 93 older Tornado fighters were available for combat or training last year,' the Telegraph said. 'There are now concerns that pilots are leaving the air force in frustration at being unable to fly. Six pilots resigned in the first half of last year, compared to a total of 11 in the five previous year.'"

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08.08.2019

"Is White Terrorism The New 9/11?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/white-terrorism-new-911-72286

Auch Curt Mills hält einige der Reaktionen auf die Massenschießerei in El Paso für gefährlich übertrieben. Wer fordere, dass die US-Behörden auf den Extremismus weißer Rassisten ebenso reagieren sollten, wie auf den radikalislamischen Terrorismus nach den Anschlägen vom 11. September 2001, riskiere die Wiederholung bekannter Fehler. "Should America confront its fringes with the wrath it brought to the Middle East after September 11, 2001? Senators Cory Booker and Richard Durbin are demanding that the FBI and Justice Department deploy the same kind of resources that they devoted to battling global terrorism to stopping white nationalism. In the Daily Beast, Christopher Dickey argues that it should: 'Now, before it grows any stronger, should be the time to move against it with the same kind of concerted international focus of attention and resources that were trained on Osama bin Laden. Now is the time for a global war on white nationalist terrorism.' But two decades of evidence argues against changing the whole way we do business in the face of a few fanatics."

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05.08.2019

"The U.S. Has Been Averaging More Than 1 Mass Shooting Per Day"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-has-been-averaging-more-1-mass-shooting-day-71551

Adam Peck hält die jüngsten Vorfälle in El Paso und Dayton aus statistischer Sicht keineswegs für bemerkenswert. Massenschießereien seien in den USA keine Ausnahmen, sondern ein empirischer Regelfall. "(...) the United States has been averaging more than one mass shooting per day for at least the past three and a half years. According to the definition established by the Gun Violence Archive, which tracks every mass shooting in the country, a mass shooting is any incident in which at least four people were shot. And so far in 2019, there have been 255 such incidents. Monday, August 5 is just the 217th day of the year. And yes, there’s already been a mass shooting today, in Brooklyn. If current trends hold — and given Republicans’ resistance to any type of gun reform, there’s no reason to expect mass shootings to abate — 2019 will set a new high for the number of mass shootings in the United States. (...) El Paso and Dayton happening 13 hours apart isn’t just unremarkable — it’s a statistical certainty."

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29.07.2019

"Moscow Election Protests Reflect A 'Stark' Generational Shift"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/interview-konstantin-remchukov-moscow-election-protests-reflect-“s
tark”-generational-shift

Die aktuellen Proteste in Moskau seien eine Folge des Aufstiegs einer neuer Generation, die eine stärkere Beteiligung an politischen Prozessen und Entscheidungen erwartet, meint Konstantin Remchukov in diesem Gespräch mit Jacob Heilbrunn. Die russische Regierung wisse bisher nicht, wie sie darauf reagieren soll. "[The elites] think they can handle things in their old-fashioned, customary manner - pouring money into St. Petersburg, building new streets, new subways, and new shopping malls. But is it adequate for the middle class? Because the case in Moscow shows that good streets, fantastic infrastructure, public places, cannot keep them safe from the lure of democracy. And people protest anyway. (...) A lot depends on if the elite being able to understand how to talk with these people. They do not necessarily need an overwhelming majority to run the country like in the old Soviet days. No, democracy means that you simply have support - maybe by even one vote. (...) Here’s the deal: if Russian elites want to sustain their power, they need to develop this language of the simple majority rather than an overwhelming majority."

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20.07.2019

"Why Trump Won't Bomb Iran"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-trump-wont-bomb-iran-68007

Lawrence J. Korb vom Center for American Progress empfiehlt US-Präsident Trump, sich bei seiner Reaktion auf die aktuelle Krise im Golf an seinen Amtsvorgängern Obama und Reagan zu orientieren. "While many people have questioned Trump’s decision not to attack Iran’s territory and instead launch cyberattacks, it is clear that he made the right decision — even if it was executed haphazardly. Some of the people who have criticized Trump have presented a distorted picture of how Obama and Reagan might have handled the situation. Trump would do well to learn what really happened in these instances. In fact, he might consider working with Putin to start secret talks to bring Iran back to the bargaining table and strategically redeploy most of the troops in the region in order to avoid another tragic accident."

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14.07.2019

"Note to Trump: Iran Would Need 1 Year to Build a Nuclear Weapon"

http://https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/note-trump-iran-would-need-1-year-build-nuclear-weapon-6701
7

Der Iran habe Schritte unternommen, um die potentielle Entwicklungszeit einer Atombombe auf ein Jahr zu reduzieren, berichtet David Axe. "Iran’s effort to shorten the time to produce a nuke 'does not pose an immediate risk,' wrote Kelsey Davenport, an expert with the Arms Control Association in the United States. 'Currently, due to restrictions put in place by the nuclear deal, the United States estimates that timeline at 12 months,' Davenport explained in a July 2019 assessment. (...) 'Any reduction in the 12-month timeline will depend on how quickly Iran continues to enrich and stockpile uranium. Tehran would need to produce about 1,050 kilograms of uranium hexafluoride gas enriched to 3.67-percent U-235 to produce enough weapons-grade material (more than 90 percent-enriched U-235) for one bomb.'"

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13.07.2019

"The UK Is Prepping Its Special Forces to Fight Russia's 'Little Green Men'"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/uk-prepping-its-special-forces-fight-russias-“little-green-men
-66677

Auch britische Spezialeinheiten trainieren Michael Peck zufolge für eine hybride Kriegsführung in Osteuropa. "Britain is giving its vaunted special forces a special job: fighting little green men, gray wars and black ops. All these colors belong to Russia’s 'hybrid warfare' strategy, which eschews massive military force in favor of more subtle means such as political manipulation, cyberwarfare and special forces operating incognito (the 'little green men' in unmarked uniforms that spearheaded the seizure of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014). So, Britain plans to fight fire with fire by using its own special operators. (...) Sources told the BBC that the plan is being studied by the British military, before being submitted to political leaders. The idea is to use the special forces when conventional troops are unsuitable."

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12.07.2019

"Will Nationalism Poison Ukraine's New President?"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-nationalism-poison-ukraines-new-president-66897

Der neue ukrainische Präsident Zelensky könnte die in ihn gesetzten Hoffnungen auf eine Normalisierung der Beziehungen zu Russland aufgrund des erheblichen nationalistischen Drucks bald enttäuschen, schreibt Nicolai N. Petro vor den ukrainischen Parlamentswahlen am 21. Juli. "It is unclear if Zelensky understands that the true source of his popular support is the desire for normalcy with Russia. It is unclear if he can avoid the trap of nationalism that has alienated at least half the country. Continuing along that path will lead to endless civil conflict. Dialogue requires an entirely different mindset, one that Ukrainians may be ready to embrace even if their political leaders are not."

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10.07.2019

"Europe Is Stuck between the United States and Russia"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/europe-stuck-between-united-states-and-russia-66411

Lyle J. Goldstein vom China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) des United States Naval War College analysiert die Kontroverse um die deutsch-russische Gasleitung Nord Stream 2 im Kontext der aktuellen amerikanischen Russland-Politik. Dabei zeigt er Verständnis gegenüber der deutschen Haltung und spricht sich für eine stärkere Interdependenz zwischen Europa und Russland aus. "America’s hostility toward the new Russian pipelines is rather bipartisan, but the mood in Berlin in decidedly unsympathetic to Washington’s concerns. After the last few years of tumult, it seems the German foreign policy elite is not so enthusiastic about American leadership. (...) Instead of Americans trying every form of stunt to decouple Russia from Europe, they should alternatively strive for enhanced interdependence and an inclusive European security architecture that offers Moscow a seat at the table. It is not all that far-fetched as the recent news regarding Russia’s reinstated voting rights at the Council of Europe suggest. (...) Still, more than a few opportunists, on both sides of the Atlantic, continue to try to stoke hostilities with Russia. One shudders to think how many cyber-security firms would be put out of business if Russia’s relationship with the West were to substantially improve. Many Washington think tanks would also have to shed legions of young 'hybrid warfare' experts."

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01.07.2019

"A Germany F-35? Berlin Said 'Nein.'"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/germany-f-35-berlin-said-nein-65121

Dario Leone berichtet über die Hintergründe der Entscheidung der Bundeswehr, ihre veraltete Tornado-Flotte nicht mit F-35-Kampfflugzeugen, sondern mit F/A-18-Kampfflugzeugen oder modernen Eurofightern zu ersetzen. "The winner will have to be certified to carry U.S. nuclear weapons. No timetable for a decision was given, but the process could take time since the U.S. government will have to certify both jets to carry the nuclear weapons. Germany has 85 operational Tornado jets, but not all are equipped to carry nuclear weapons. (...) The decision marks a big setback for Lockheed, the top U.S. arms maker, which had hoped to add to recent F-35 sales to other European countries, including Belgium. As reported, Germany’s air force chief of staff was fired last year after he expressed a clear preference for the F-35. The ministry later said it favored a 'European solution.'"

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30.06.2019

"Why the DMZ Meeting Between Trump and Kim Matters"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/why-dmz-meeting-between-trump-and-kim-matters-64996

Aus diplomatischer Sicht sollte das kurzfristig anberaumte Treffen Donald Trumps mit Kim Jong Un nicht vorschnell als bedeutungsloser Fototermin abgetan werden, meint dagegen Devin T. Stewart vom Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs. "The photo-op gives both Kim and Trump domestic political cover to stave off calls from hawkish advisers for a more hostile approach toward the relationship. It gives the two countries time to set up a third summit, perhaps early next year, with a reduced risk of provocations in the meantime that could throw diplomacy off track. Some commentators are mocking the meeting as a publicity stunt but politics are often about symbolism, messaging, and framing and a return to friendlier terms are certainly better than a return to the 2017 threats of nuclear war. An act like this one can be both political theater and helpful in reducing the risk of war."

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21.06.2019

"We Asked a Military Expert to Sketch Out a U.S. Invasion of Iran. Yikes."

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/we-asked-military-expert-sketch-out-us-invasion-iran-yikes-63612

Ein Krieg der USA gegen den Iran hätte immense Kosten, einen unsicheren Ausgang und ein kaum absehbares Ende, so das Fazit der Analyse von Robert Farley vom United States Army War College. "Regime change is unlikely to succeed, and is more likely to exacerbate the problems it was designed to solve. First, any attack against Iran will likely trigger a nationalist backlash, making the public more supportive of the regime in the short term. (...) Second, the United States lacks broad international support for a campaign of regime change. Even allies such as Saudi Arabia and Israel would likely blanch at the long-term costs that the war would create. (...) Third, it is unclear how such a military intervention would end. The U.S. lacks the international support to undertake the sort of militarized containment that is used against Iraq during the 1990s. (...) On the upside, even if the campaign failed to dislodge the Tehran government, it could cause significant long-term damage to Iran’s military, economic and scientific infrastructure, setting back Tehran’s military ambitions in the region. This outcome is probably most amenable to US allies in the Middle East, who don’t worry overmuch about the prospect of committing the United States to an open-ended military conflict with Iran."

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17.06.2019

"Trump Has Already Won the 'Trade War'"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-has-already-won-‘trade-war’-63097

Gordon G. Chang kommt in seiner Analyse des Handelsstreits zwischen den USA und China zu dem Schluss, dass US-Präsident Trump seinem eigentlichen Ziel, dem Rückzug von produzierenden US-Unternehmen aus China, näher gerückt sei. "Beijing has obviously lost pull in the U.S. business community. More important, American companies are now starting to understand that, deal or no deal, the friction between Washington and Beijing will continue and it’s time to lessen dependence on China. (...) Manufacturers of low-margin goods have been leaving China for more than a decade for cost and other reasons, but the worsening trade friction has accelerated the process. (...) Disengagement — what the Chinese call 'decoupling' — has become the trend. 'Unwinding the supply chain is happening, the train has left the station,' Jonathan Bass of PTM Images told the National Interest. (...) 'If we knew China was facing a 15 percent to 20 percent tariff, some companies might just chalk that up to a business expense and stay,' Joseph Foudy of New York University Stern Business School told CNN. 'It’s the uncertainty that drives you to look abroad because you can’t put a price on that.' (...) Looking at the whole situation, Trump has pushed companies to scatter their factories around the world, furthering the deindustrialization of China. The process looks irreversible, and so America will win the trade war."

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14.06.2019

"Are Academics Pursuing a Cult of the Irrelevant?"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/are-academics-pursuing-cult-irrelevant-62552

Michael Lind stellt das Buch "Cult of the Irrelevant: The Waning Influence of Social Science on National Security" von Michael Desch vor, der sich mit der wechselhaften Beziehung der US-Sicherheitspolitik zur Politikwissenschaft beschäftigt hat. "Desch notes that the professionalization of political science as an academic discipline promotes groupthink and conformity: 'One key mechanism through which disciplines become homogenous is through faculty hiring in which universities compete for the same group of leading scholars. Another mechanism is the process of academic peer review, which can foster 'the homogenization of opinion.'' (...) In spite of his pessimistic analysis, Desch concludes his study by holding out hope that universities can be reformed to be of greater use to policymakers, including national security officials (...). Well, one can always dream. The possibility that tenured professors (forget tenure-track professors and “non-tenure track” professors of practice) will reform their discipline by successfully going to war with their colleagues as part of an alliance of university trustees, government officials, foundation officers, the media and the general public seems pretty slight."

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13.06.2019

"Defeating the Islamic State of Idlib"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/defeating-islamic-state-idlib-62452

Robert G. Rabil, Politikwissenschaftler an der Florida Atlantic University, kritisiert die passive Strategie der US-Regierung in der Idlib-Krise und meint, dass die dschihadistische Bedrohung in der syrischen Provinz ernst genommen werden sollte. "(...) Idlib today has the largest concentration of hardened and most unyielding Salafi-jihadis. Estimates of their number vary with the median ranges between sixty thousand and ninety thousand. The leader of the Salafi-jihadi groups is none other than HTS, the last iteration of Al Qaeda’s Syrian branch. HTS defeated most of its rivals, even some of its one-time allies, especially Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam, both supported by Turkey. (...) No doubt, the administration has no easy solutions for defeating the jihadis, checking the power of Russia, Syria and Turkey in Idlib, and saving the civilians; nevertheless, the administration has to be fully involved in finding a compromise that would not only prevent a Syrian tragedy today but also an American tragedy tomorrow. Such a compromise must includeTurkey and Russia."

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13.06.2019

"Agent Orange, Exposed: How U.S. Chemical Warfare In Vietnam Unleashed a Disaster"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/agent-orange-exposed-how-us-chemical-warfare-vietnam-unleashed-dis
aster-62317

Jason von Meding erinnert in diesem historischen Rückblick auf den Vietnam-Krieg der USA an den massenhaften Einsatz des chemischen Entlaubungsmittels Agent Orange. Die "atemberaubenden" Folgen dieser Kriegführung prägten das Land bis heute. "More than 10 years of U.S. chemical warfare in Vietnam exposed an estimated 2.1 to 4.8 million Vietnamese people to Agent Orange. More than 40 years on, the impact on their health has been staggering. This dispersion of Agent Orange over a vast area of central and south Vietnam poisoned the soil, river systems, lakes and rice paddies of Vietnam, enabling toxic chemicals to enter the food chain. (...) On a positive note, the Vietnamese government and both local and international organizations are making strides toward restoring this critical landscape. The U.S. and Vietnam are also undertaking a joint remediation program to deal with dioxin-contaminated soil and water. The destruction of Vietnamese forests, however, has proven irreversible. The natural habitat of such rare species as tigers, elephants, bears and leopards were distorted, in many cases beyond repair."

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10.06.2019

"Russia vs. Israel: The War That Could Become a Nuclear Disaster"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-vs-israel-war-could-become-nuclear-disaster-61892

Russland und Israel pflegen derzeit ein relativ gutes diplomatisches Verhältnis. Angesichts der israelischen Luftangriffe auf iranische Ziele in Syrien hält Michael Peck einen bewaffneten Konflikt zwischen beiden Ländern allerdings nicht für ausgeschlossen. "(...) Israel’s policy boils down to this: it will do whatever it sees as necessary to eject Iranian forces from Syria. And if Russia doesn’t like it, then that’s just the price of ensuring that Syria doesn’t become another Iranian rocket base on Israel’s border. (...) Were the Israelis and Russians to come to blows, or if Moscow were to seriously threaten military force against Israel, could the United States risk a grave loss of prestige by not intervening to back its longtime ally? Could Russia — whose Syrian intervention is a proud symbol of its reborn military muscle and great power status — not retaliate for another downed Russian plane or a dead Russian soldier? Which leads to the ultimate question: could tensions between Israel and Russia lead to a clash between American and Russian troops?"

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07.06.2019

"Germany Is Now Building Hypersonic Weapons"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/germany-now-building-hypersonic-weapons-61652

Die Bundeswehr hat Michael Peck zufolge mit der Entwicklung eigener Überschallwaffen begonnen. "[Peter Heilmeier, sales manager for defense firm MBDA,] describes the new weapons as being 'purely defensive.' He foresees the first German hypersonic missiles as being anti-tank weapons to stop Russian armor, such as the new T-14 Armata, equipped with active protection systems (APS). (...) Interestingly, given the push by the French and German governments to create a pan-European military to replace the multitude of national armies, Germany is keeping this a strictly German project."

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02.06.2019

"Understanding the Failure of U.S. Foreign Policy: The Albright Doctrine"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/understanding-failure-us-foreign-policy-albright-doctrine-6047
7

Arroganz und Kriegslust des außenpolitischen Establishments in Washington sind nach Ansicht von Doug Bandow von der früheren US-Außenministerin Madeleine Albright besonders anschaulich verkörpert worden. "First is overweening hubris. In 1998 Secretary of State Albright declared that 'If we have to use force, it is because we are America: we are the indispensable nation. We stand tall and we see further than other countries into the future, and we see the danger here to all of us.' (...) Albright’s assumption that members of The Blob were far-seeing was matched by her belief that the same people were entitled to make life-and-death decisions for the entire planet. When queried 1996 about her justification for sanctions against Iraq which had killed a half million babies — notably, she did not dispute the accuracy of that estimate — she responded that 'I think this is a very hard choice, but the price — we think the price is worth it.' (...) As Albright famously asked Colin Powell in 1992: 'What’s the use of having this superb military you’re always talking about if we can’t use it?' To her, American military personnel apparently were but gambit pawns in a global chess game, to be sacrificed for the interest and convenience of those playing. (...) Anyone of these comments could be dismissed as a careless aside. Taken together, however, they reflect an attitude dangerous for Americans and foreigners alike."

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30.05.2019

"Is Russia Testing Nuclear Weapons in Secret?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-testing-nuclear-weapons-secret-60117

Robert Ashley, Direktor der Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) des Pentagons, hat Russland vorgeworfen, sich "möglicherweise" nicht an die Regeln des Atomteststoppabkommens (CTBT) zu halten. David Axe hält geheime russische Atomtests allerdings für unwahrscheinlich. Die Anschuldigung wirke wie ein erneuter Versuch der US-Regierung, bestehende Rüstungskontrollverträge zu unterminieren. "Ashley’s allegation is consistent with repeated attempts by Pres. Donald Trump, his administration and his allies in Congress to dismantle existing arms-control regimes by accusing Russia of violating them, thus justifying a U.S. withdrawal from the same regimes and clearing the way for a U.S. arms build-up. (...) National Security Advisor John Bolton is a noted critic of the CTBT, having 'long claimed that the treaty does not adequately define a nuclear test, that Russia and China have a different interpretation than the United States of what the treaty prohibits and that Moscow and Beijing have conducted nuclear tests in violation of the treaty.'"

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27.05.2019

"Beware The Decline of U.S. Influence in South Asia"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/beware-decline-us-influence-south-asia-59212

Minaam Shah stellt besorgt fest, dass der Einfluss der USA in Südasien in den vergangenen Jahren spürbar zurückgegangen sei. Damit könnte auch die hinter den Kulissen wirkende Vermittlerrolle wegfallen, die Washington in früheren Krisen zwischen Indien und Pakistan gespielt habe. "Underestimating the risks, many in the United States seem surprisingly comfortable with this radical departure from its traditional role of an active mediator. The supporters of this renewed American policy draw their arguments on four main arguments. The most recent one is that the role of the United States is overextended and overcommitted. (...) A second and more plausible argument is that the United States needs India for containing China. To this end, it should side with India in what is the latter's genuine grievances against Pakistan. (...) Third, any sort of de-escalatory mediation on part of the United States is seen amounting to condoning Pakistan's bad behavior. (...) And finally, it is assumed that a favorable U.S. position will be to leave it to India to decide how it wants to respond to Pakistani aggression as the recent crises hinted. (...) Those who prefer that Washington withdraw from such a role entirely underestimate how dangerous a resulting power vacuum could be. The United States does have important interests in the region which range from cultivating peace in Afghanistan to reigning in Chinese ambitions in Asia-Pacific. Realizing these objectives will require greater participation in regional affairs particularly between India and Pakistan, this for the sake of the United States and the region itself."

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27.05.2019

"When Will the Unipolar World End?"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/when-will-unipolar-world-end-59202

In der Debatte über ein baldiges Ende der von den USA dominierten unipolaren Welt empfiehlt Peter Harris, die Stationierung der US-Truppen in Europa und Asien im Blick zu behalten. "Viewing unipolarity as a geopolitical configuration helps shed light on when the unipolar world might come to an end. Just as bipolarity ended when the Soviet Union withdrew its forces from Eastern Europe and ceased to exercise a meaningful military presence in East Asia, so too will the unipolar world give way whenever the U.S. military is no longer dominant along the two critical flanks of Eurasia: the European Peninsula and the maritime states of East Asia. There are two primary pathways to such an outcome, each perfectly conceivable in the present context. First, it is possible that some international competitor (or group of challengers) might manage to dislodge the United States from Europe, Asia, or both. (...) Another possibility is if an alliance of Eurasian powers made it strategically untenable for the United States to maintain a credible overseas military presence. Crucially, however, the unipolar world will only end when the United States materially loses its near-hegemonic status in Europe or East Asia. It will not be enough for China or Russia to outmatch the United States on paper."

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23.05.2019

"Russia and America Are Taking Turns Probing Each Other’s Air Space"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-and-america-are-taking-turns-probing-each-other%E2%80%99s-a
ir-space-59027

David Axe macht darauf aufmerksam, dass sowohl amerikanische als auch russische Kampfflugzeuge in diesem Jahr vermehrt Manöver in der Nähe des Luftraums des jeweils anderen Staates unternähmen. "Six Russian Tu-95 heavy bombers and several Russian Su-35 fighters probed U.S. air-defenses on May 20 and May 21, 2019, prolonging a period of aerial tension between the Moscow and Washington. U.S. Air Force F-22 stealth fighters and supporting aircraft on both days peacefully intercepted the Russian planes. (...) It’s worth noting that U.S. forces conduct similar air operations near Russian air space. The U.S. Air Force in early March 2019 deployed five B-52 bombers from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana to the United Kingdom. Some of the B-52s flew mock nuclear attacks on Russian soil. (...) The next time a Russian bomber appears near the U.S. coast, remember that American bombers are just as likely to appear off the Russian coast. Mutual displays of aerial might by nuclear-capable warplanes is a routine, if chilling, fact of life for the United States and Russia."

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18.05.2019

"You Can't Imagine World War III Between America and China"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/you-cant-imagine-world-war-iii-between-america-and-china-58237

Alfred McCoy erläutert in diesem Auszug aus seinem Buch "In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of U.S. Global Power", warum Strategen im Pentagon und in Denkfabriken wie der RAND Corporation nicht mehr absolut davon überzeugt seien, dass die USA einen Krieg gegen China gewinnen würden. "In June 2017, the Defense Department issued a major report titled on Risk Assessment in a Post-Primacy World, finding that the U.S. military 'no longer enjoys an unassailable position versus state competitors,' and 'it no longer can … automatically generate consistent and sustained local military superiority at range.' This sober assessment led the Pentagon’s top strategists to 'the jarring realization that 'we can lose.'' (...) the RAND Corporation recently released a study, War with China, predicting that by 2025 'China will likely have more, better and longer-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles; advanced air defenses; latest generation aircraft; quieter submarines; more and better sensors; and the digital communications, processing power and C2 [cyber security] necessary to operate an integrated kill chain.' In the event of all-out war, RAND suggested, the United States might suffer heavy losses to its carriers, submarines, missiles, and aircraft from Chinese strategic forces, while its computer systems and satellites would be degraded thanks to 'improved Chinese cyberwar and ASAT [anti-satellite] capabilities.' Even though American forces would counterattack, their 'growing vulnerability' means Washington’s victory would not be assured. In such a conflict, the think tank concluded, there might well be no 'clear winner.'"

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16.05.2019

"Israel Tried to 'Eliminate' Iran's Nuclear Program By Killing Scientists"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/israel-tried-eliminate-irans-nuclear-program-killing-scientists-57
932

Sebastien Roblin erinnert an den israelischen Versuch, das iranische Atomprogramm durch gezielte Attentate auf beteiligte Wissenschaftler zu stoppen. "The Mossad assassination campaign did not continue after 2012, though both U.S. and Israeli intelligence sources allege it was effective in slowing the progress of the Iranian nuclear program. While assassination was disavowed by U.S. diplomatic and intelligence officials, some politicians have voiced their support for the scientist killings. After all, the reasoning goes, such targeted assassinations kill far fewer bystanders than would missiles launched in a wider military conflict. However, it’s hard to deny that the campaign used tactics that would be labelled 'terrorism' or 'murder' in the West were they waged against Israeli or American scientists engaged in weapons research. It seems assassinations are condemned or praised not according to the methods used but depending on who is performing them."

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13.05.2019

"Daenerys Targaryen's Dragons Prove the Insanity of 'Usable' Nuclear Weapons"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/daenerys-targaryens-dragons-prove-insanity-usable-nuclear-weapons-
57272

In seinem (von Spoilern begleiteten!) Beitrag über die 5. Folge der letzten Staffel der populären HBO-Serie "Game of Thrones" erklärt David Axe am Beispiel der Drachen von Daenerys Targaryen, warum die Vorstellung eines begrenzten Einsatzes von Atomwaffen "verrückt" sei. "Yes, it’s silly to look for practical military lessons in a television fantasy whose creators aren’t even trying realistically to depict the world or warfare. But a T.V. show can explore broader themes in ways that are useful for people in the real world. Broader themes such as the power of weapons of mass destruction and the consequences of using them. For that’s what dragons are. Fantasy WMDs. (...) Game of Thrones’ dragons help to reveal the fallacy of the 'usable' nuke. Both the United States under Donald Trump and Russia under Vladimir Putin are developing smaller, 'tactical' nuclear weapons that both seem to believe they could use without effectively destroying the world as we know it. But usable nukes are a lie."

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12.05.2019

"Striking a Deal with Russia on Spheres of Influence"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/striking-deal-russia-spheres-influence-56787

Ted Galen Carpenter empfiehlt der US-Regierung, in ihren Verhandlungen mit Russland das geopolitische Konzept der Einflusssphären stärker zu beachten. Die amerikanische Reaktion auf die russischen Aktivitäten in Venezuela zeige, dass die USA die westliche Hemisphäre nach wie vor als eigenen Einflussbereich betrachten. "The Trump administration should insist that Russia respect the Monroe Doctrine and confine its Venezuelan ties to normal diplomatic and economic relations. At the same time, it is essential for U.S. officials to acknowledge that the United States and its NATO allies have shown contempt for Russia’s sphere of influence — and even its core security zone — in Eastern Europe. (...) Such an offer requires greater realism on the part of U.S. policymakers and political leaders. Spheres of influence have always played a major role in international affairs, and despite assertions by prominent members of the American foreign policy community, they still do. All great powers seek to enforce their writ in their immediate neighborhood, and the avoidance of needless conflict requires a decent respect for that reality. Recent U.S. administrations have violated that important principle, and their behavior is producing retaliation and a spike in international tensions."

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