US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

The National Interest


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09.10.2019

"America Needs Turkey More Than It Needs to Stay in Syria"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/america-needs-turkey-more-it-needs-stay-syria-86911

Ali Demirdas hält den Rückzug der US-Truppen aus Nordsyrien für eine notwendige Reaktion auf die Tatsache, dass die USA im Nahen Osten ohne Kooperation mit der Türkei keine effektive Rolle mehr spielen können. Zudem müsse Washington verhindern, dass Russland den NATO-Verbündeten immer weiter in den eigenen Orbit ziehe. "When the Pentagon continued to steadfastly support Turkey’s arch-foe in Syria, Putin promptly offered his full support for Turkey’s incursion. When Washington announced that Turkey was to be ejected from the F-35 program, Putin promptly offered Turks an irrefutable deal on Russian SU-35. After Lindsey Graham’s recent overture, Trump reiterated Turkey’s indispensability for the JFS on Tuesday (October 8) saying; 'So many people conveniently forget that Turkey is a big trading partner of the United States, in fact, they make the structural steel frame for our F-35 Fighter Jet.' It is a clear sign that without Turkey’s continuous involvement in the Joint Strike Program, the Pentagon and Lockheed Martin are going to have a hard time keeping it afloat. Finally, Trump’s decision to pull troops out of Syria and recent signs that Turkey may remain in the F-35 program indicate Washington perhaps has realized that it can no longer be an effective player in the Middle East by further alienating Turkey."

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08.10.2019

"Yes, Donald Trump Dumped the Kurds (And We Should Not Be Shocked)"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/yes-donald-trump-dumped-kurds-and-we-should-not-be-shocked-864
71

Mit seiner Entscheidung zum Rückzug der US-Truppen aus Nordsyrien habe Donald Trump die Kurden ohne Zweifel verraten, stellt Ted Galen Carpenter fest. Es sei allerdings nicht das erste Mal, dass ein US-Präsident kurdische Verbündete aus geopolitischen Erwägungen fallen gelassen habe. "The Kurds finally may learn that it is hazardous to trust the United States. Washington’s conduct toward that population over the decades is hardly an occasion for national pride. But U.S. leaders are not uniquely duplicitous. Historically, most great powers have sacrificed allies and clients whenever more central interests seemed to be at stake. Moreover, the Kurds are not the only victims of U.S. policy shifts. (...) The lesson for U.S. allies and security clients should be the political equivalent of caveat emptor (buyer beware). Washington’s policies are subject to change, and no foreign government should assume that its relationship with the United States is sacrosanct. If the incentives are sufficient, U.S. leaders will betray an ally (especially a small ally) without much hesitation. That’s how a great power operates, and there is no evidence of American exceptionalism on that score."

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30.09.2019

"Does a Trump Impeachment Mean the End of Negotiations with North Korea?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/does-trump-impeachment-mean-end-negotiations-north-korea-84
566

Das drohende Amtsenthebungsverfahren gegen Donald Trump könnte die Verhandlungen der USA mit Nordkorea torpedieren, fürchtet Doug Bandow. Nordkoreas Staatschef Kim Jong Un werde sich gut überlegen, ob es sich lohne, ein Abkommen mit einem US-Präsidenten anzustreben, der möglicherweise nicht mehr lange im Amt sei. "In fact, the president’s reliability as a negotiating partner was never good. On trade, he abandoned pacts both negotiated and ratified. He filled his administration with officials, such as former national security adviser John Bolton, who actively undermined his professed international objectives. (...) The threat of impeachment has further undermined the president’s value as a negotiating partner. Whatever its result, the process will divert administration attention and resources from policy. Moreover, it will drain the Trump presidency of much of its remaining credibility political capital. In the unlikely result that he is removed (...) his successors may be as enthusiastic about eliminating his legacy as he was regarding Barack Obama’s."

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30.09.2019

"Would Ousting Trump Rebuild the Country’s Faith in Government? Lessons from Latin America."

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/would-ousting-trump-rebuild-country%E2%80%99s-faith-government-les
sons-latin-america-84116

Rachel E. Bowen dämpft die Hoffnung, dass eine Amtsenthebung Donald Trumps die politischen Probleme der USA lösen würde. Dabei verweist sie auf die Erfahrungen lateinamerikanischer Länder, deren Präsidenten ebenfalls aus dem Amt gedrängt wurden. "Problems with governance are rarely fixed by going after even an unpopular or corrupt president if fundamental institutional problems are allowed to continue unchecked. Impeachment’s weakness is compounded by its often partisan deployment. What else can be done to clean up politics? The hard work of demanding transparency more generally may help get at the root of the problem. Guatemala’s experience with an international anti-corruption commission helped local officials shine a light on official wrongdoing at every level of government. However, that commission’s mandate expired on September 2, 2019, following clashes with the president over an investigation into his own actions. Ultimately, using legal channels to improve political institutions, rather than focusing on just one bad politician, can enhance the rule of law."

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20.09.2019

"5 Reasons Why the Saudi Oil Attacks Won’t Lead to War with Iran"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/5-reasons-why-saudi-oil-attacks-won’t-lead-war-iran-82096

David M. Allison und Stephen Herzog erklären, warum sie einen Krieg zwischen den USA und dem Iran weiterhin für unwahrscheinlich halten. "1. Americans don’t want war with Iran. (...) 2. Trump has shown his hand. He prefers negotiation to conflict with Iran. (...) 3.  The 'devil incarnate' has left the building. Until last week, John Bolton — who former Secretary of Defense James Mattis joked was the 'devil incarnate' — was Trump’s National Security Advisor. Bolton’s dismissal has significantly weakened the influence of the so-called 'B-Team' consisting of Bolton, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. (...) 4. The U.S. military is opposed to fighting Iran. In July of this year, U.S. Army Gen. Mark Milley expressed skepticism to the Senate about the likelihood of a major war with Iran. (...) he explained that the military is focused on a strategy of great-power competition, and conflict with a recalcitrant state like Iran would be disruptive to these plans. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal have since confirmed that these views remain the dominant narrative at the Pentagon. (...) 5. Iran doesn’t really want a war with the United States. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has publicly stated that Iran does not seek war with the United States. Iranian officials know that while the United States might not be able to conclusively win, Iran would bear the majority of the human costs."

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15.09.2019

"Israel Could Launch a Nuclear War from Advanced German-Built Submarines"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/israel-could-launch-nuclear-war-advanced-german-built-submarines-8
0791

Kyle Mizokami schreibt, dass Israel in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten mit deutscher Hilfe eine kleine Flotte von fünf U-Booten aufgestellt habe, die aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach mit Atomwaffen ausgerüstet sind. Das damit verbundene atomare Abschreckungspotential wäre erheblich, da U-Boote theoretisch auch nach einem vernichtenden Angriff auf Israel Vergeltungsschläge durchführen könnten. "The German government has just recently given the go-ahead for yet another set of three more Dolphins. These new submarines should be ready just as the three first-generation boats are aging out, ensuring that Israel has a fleet of six submarines available for the foreseeable future. Israel’s sea-based nuclear deterrent is here to stay."

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14.09.2019

"Is the Philippines Becoming Russia’s Newest Ally?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/philippines-becoming-russia%E2%80%99s-newest-ally-80541

Der Kauf russischer Verkehrsflugzeuge durch die Philippinen hat Michael Peck zufolge Spekulationen über eine strategische Annäherung der beiden Länder ausgelöst. "Indeed, Manila seems to be drawing closer to Moscow even as its relations with Washington have worsened. In March 2019, Russian and Philippine officials met to discuss a potential naval pact. In April, two Russian warships docked in Manila. (...) A Russia-Philippines axis would be an incredible turnaround. The Philippines has traditionally been a U.S. ally (as well as an American colony from 1898 to 1946). (...) it is not unheard of for nations to switch partners. A prime example is Egypt, a major recipient of Soviet weapons and advisers during the Cold War, but which is now an American client. India relied on Russian arms for years, but is now buying American equipment, while once-staunch U.S. ally Turkey is buying Russian anti-aircraft missiles."

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11.09.2019

"A Top Expert Just Told Us 5 Ways a Nuclear War Could Start (Think Billions Dead)"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/top-expert-just-told-us-5-ways-nuclear-war-could-start-think-billi
ons-dead-79646

Tom Nichols vom Naval War College erläutert fünf "Albtraum-Szenarien" eines nuklearen Konflikts zwischen den USA und Russland bzw. China: "1. Mechanical Accident: (...) As terrifying as it is to think of a war generated by a random mechanical hiccup, it’s important to note that this is the least likely trigger for a nuclear war. (...) 2. Human Error: As long as there are machines run by human beings, there are going to be accidents. War, however, will not begin because a bomber crashes or a silo catches fire; rather, the error will lay in the misinterpretation of an accident by fallible human beings. (...) 3. A Show of Force: As we move from mechanical errors to human agency, things actually get scarier. (...) The worst mistake to make about nuclear weapons is to believe that they are ordinary arms, available for military use like any other. (This is sometimes called the 'conventionalizing' of nuclear weapons.) The second worst mistake, however, is to believe that nuclear weapons are magic, and that using them solves problems that are otherwise politically or strategically intractable. (...) 4. We’re Dragged into it by Someone Else: Sometimes, your worst enemies are your friends. (...) 5. The 'Sore Loser Scenario': Finally, there are paths to nuclear war that rely on the most durable source of war there is: human stupidity. If the major powers don’t bumble into a nuclear war, or get dragged into one by their friends, they can always just choose to launch one themselves. (...) Before I conclude, let me reassure you that you’re in far more danger texting – or maybe reading something like this on your phone – while driving. The odds of a nuclear war are tiny, but they exist, and if we ever draw that black lottery ticket, the consequences will defeat our imagination."

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10.09.2019

"Will Bolton’s Ouster Lead to Changes In Trump Foreign Policy?"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-bolton’s-ouster-lead-changes-trump-foreign-policy-79536

Nach Ansicht von Hunter DeRensis und Matthew Petti eröffnet die Entlassung des Nationalen Sicherheitsberaters John Bolton neue Möglichkeiten für diplomatische Durchbrüche in mehreren sicherheitspolitischen Bereichen. "'It probably is a reflection of the fact that Trump wants to pursue diplomacy in a few areas, and that it became too costly for him to have this 'saboteur-in-chief' on staff, essentially having a fox in the henhouse. It signaled insincerity on Trump’s behalf,' said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute. 'The collapse of Afghanistan talks have left Trump with few potential diplomatic victories on the horizon: Afghanistan more or less gone, Israel/Palestine clearly gone, North Korea not going anywhere, China not going anywhere,' he told TNI. 'Iran may be the one that he's turning his eye to. And for that, he needs to fire Bolton.' (...) Ken Silverstein, former editor at Harper’s Magazine, says without Bolton the administration’s already stillborn attempt at eliminating the Maduro government in Venezuela becomes even less likely. (...) Perhaps the biggest change in policy may come with Korea. 'Everything is possible now,' said Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis, senior fellow at Defense Priorities."

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08.09.2019

"South Korea Doesn’t Need the U.S. Military To Fight North Korea in a War"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/south-korea-doesn%E2%80%99t-need-us-military-fight-north-ko
rea-war-78896

Sollte es auf der koreanischen Halbinsel tatsächlich zum Krieg kommen, wäre Südkorea keineswegs auf die Hilfe der USA angewiesen, ist Kyle Mizokami überzeugt. "The reality is that South Korea, with an economy nearly fifty times greater than the North’s, is more than capable of defending itself after a withdrawal of U.S. military forces. (...) South Korea spends a respectable amount on defense, augmented by conscription that provides cheap manpower. South Korea is generally outnumbered by North Korea in military personnel, armored vehicles, artillery, tactical aircraft and ships, but South Korean equipment is considerably more modern and capable than North Korean equipment. Most North Korean military equipment, from jet fighters to tanks, are obsolete and in many cases, individual pieces are decades old. The economic disparity between the two countries lies at the heart of the argument. Even assuming that South Korea must spend several times more than the North to contain the threat, Seoul should have more than enough economic means to do so."

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03.09.2019

"Why America Doesn't Want to Admit That it Failed in Afghanistan"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/why-america-doesnt-want-admit-it-failed-afghanistan-7
7731

Daniel R. DePetris begrüßt das möglicherweise bevorstehende Friedensabkommen mit den Taliban als implizites und überfälliges Eingeständnis der Tatsache, dass die USA nichts mehr für Afghanistan tun können. "While nobody in a position of power likes to admit it, the United States has done all it can for Afghanistan. The roads, schools, hospitals, security forces, and ministries constructed, and supported courtesy of the U.S. taxpayer are ineffective bureaucracies susceptible to corruption, a sad omen to the nonsensical assumption that Uncle Sam could play the 'white knight' and build a Western-style order in a disorderly country at war continuously for forty years. (...) Let there be no mistake: if the Taliban is stupid enough to allow Al Qaeda or the Islamic State to plan terrorist attacks against the U.S. homeland or U.S. interests overseas, they can expect a tenfold military response. (...) But stretching out Washington’s participation in a never-ending civil war any longer, as if this is the most efficient way to keep the American people safe, is foolish. One could even call it a dereliction of duty."

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03.09.2019

"Empire America: Why Washington Can't Reduce Its Military Footprint"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/empire-america-why-washington-cant-reduce-its-military-footpri
nt-77721

Die aktuelle Debatte über einen Truppenabzug aus Afghanistan verdeutlicht nach Ansicht von Ted Galen Carpenter, wie schwer es den USA falle, ihren "militärischen Fußabdruck" in Klientelstaaten zu reduzieren. Dies sei nicht nur auf den Einfluss der "Falken" in Washington zurückzuführen, sondern müsse als Erbe der seit Jahrzehnten betriebenen globalen Sicherheitspolitik der USA betrachtet werden. "Since the end of World War II, the United States has practiced its own version of the Cold War-era Brezhnev Doctrine. Moscow’s policy, named after Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev, asserted that once a country became a member of the communist camp, it must always remain a member. The U.S. version has meant that once a nation becomes a security dependent of the United States, it forever remains a U.S. security dependent, and once Washington establishes a significant military footprint in a country, that footprint will endure. (...) U.S. imperialism consists of creating patron-client relationships with security dependents and enforcing that policy through a global network of military bases. Nevertheless, it is an imperial policy, and the U.S. military footprint in a client state becomes as permanent as if it were encased in concrete. Afghanistan is merely the latest arena in which that model is being used."

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30.08.2019

"Denmark Might Not Sell Greenland to America, but It Is Selling Its Resources to China"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/denmark-might-not-sell-greenland-america-it-selling-its-resources-
china-76921

Petri Mäkelä schreibt, dass Dänemark, das dem Grönland-Interesse des US-Präsidenten eine unmissverständliche Absage erteilt habe, offenbar kein Problem darin sehe, Standorte und strategische Ressourcen in Grönland an China zu verkaufen. "China has been heavily buying in to Greenland and its vast natural resources. The true quantity of the resources is only slowly getting revealed as the continental ice is melting due to the climate change. (...) If China was given a possibility to control the ports and airports in Greenland, it would cause serious problems for NATO operations in the northern European theater. The Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap has long been the focus point of naval planning for the possible showdown between NATO and Russia in Europe. On the other hand Greenland could also be used to stage operations aimed to disable the Russian forces in the Arctic. (...) While the USA has a military presence in Greenland, it currently has very little control over the strategically important resources there and Chinese offers may be too tempting for the largely autonomic Greenland government and the cash strapped leaders in Copenhagen. Buying Greenland as a whole is off the table, but China is raiding the all-you-can-eat buffet there."

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25.08.2019

"The Balkans Will Pay a Heavy Price for China's Global Ambitions"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/balkans-will-pay-heavy-price-chinas-global-ambitions-75951

Nach Ansicht von Karina Barbesino und Kristine Lee könnte die chinesische Investitionsstrategie in den Balkanländern eine destabilisierende Wirkung haben. "Through bridge construction projects in Croatia, investments in Bosnia’s energy infrastructure, and a bid to develop Serbia’s 5G networks, Beijing has turned the Balkans into a critical transitway as it tries to boost the export of its manufactured goods to Europe and grease the wheels of foreign direct investment into China. Its diplomatic and economic activities in the Balkans are divorced, however, from an understanding of the complex patchwork of ethnic, political, and historical legacies that define the region — so much so that it is likely to brew instability in an already rattled region. (...) Although China is engaging with many of the countries in the Balkans through the Belt and Road Initiative and other diplomatic initiatives, it has evinced a clear preference for Serbia, where illiberalism and autocratic political leadership mirrors the Chinese Communist Party’s model of governance most closely. In doing so, it is, either through lack of understanding or willful ignorance, contributing to the political alienation of Bosnia, which lies at the heart of the region’s political and ethnic tensions. Absent a common EU stance toward China, we can expect an emboldened yet fundamentally destabilizing Chinese presence in the Balkans."

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18.08.2019

"A Cyberattack Could Wreak Destruction Comparable to a Nuclear Weapon"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/cyberattack-could-wreak-destruction-comparable-nuclear-weapon-7423
1

Jeremy Straub warnt, dass eine große Cyberattacke in den kommenden Jahren ähnlich verheerende Auswirkungen haben könnte wie ein Atomangriff. "So far, most of the well-known hacking incidents, even those with foreign government backing, have done little more than steal data. Unfortunately, there are signs that hackers have placed malicious software inside U.S. power and water systems, where it’s lying in wait, ready to be triggered. The U.S. military has also reportedly penetrated the computers that control Russian electrical systems. As someone who studies cybersecurity and information warfare, I’m concerned that a cyberattack with widespread impact, an intrusion in one area that spreads to others or a combination of lots of smaller attacks, could cause significant damage, including mass injury and death rivaling the death toll of a nuclear weapon. (...) My concern is not intended to downplay the devastating and immediate effects of a nuclear attack. Rather, it’s to point out that some of the international protections against nuclear conflicts don’t exist for cyberattacks."

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18.08.2019

"Saudi Arabia’s Hyper-Nationalism Is Here To Stay"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/saudi-arabia’s-hyper-nationalism-here-stay-74076

Das saudi-arabische Königshaus verfolgt angesichts der wankenden religiösen und ökonomischen Säulen des staatlichen Zusammenhalts eine Strategie des "Hyper-Nationalismus", schreibt Ryan Bohl. "(...) while the Saudi hyper-nationalist trend does not seek the same kind of violent, global caliphate as previous Saudi extremists like Osama bin Laden, they nevertheless pose a real risk not just to the reputation of the Kingdom, but to its more independently-minded Gulf Arab neighbors, and aspects of its critical relationships with the West. (...) As Western allies grow concerned about Saudi Arabia’s human-rights record and conduct in Yemen, pressure from allies to change Saudi Arabia’s behavior will butt up against nationalist demands for the monarchy to maintain the Kingdom’s sovereignty. This will be a marked change from the heady days of George W. Bush and King Abdullah, when Bush helped pressure the king to hold municipal elections as part of his regional Freedom Agenda. Even close allies of the Kingdom may find that the more nationalism gains stature in Saudi Arabia, the more closed the minds of its officials become."

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18.08.2019

"Is India Becoming a Nuclear Weapons Superpower?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/india-becoming-nuclear-weapons-superpower-74521

Einer neuen Studie des Nuclear Information Project der Federation of American Scientists zufolge hat Indien bisher bis zu 140 Atomsprengköpfe produziert. "In addition, 'India continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal, with at least five new weapon systems now under development to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery systems, and sea-based systems.' Unlike the missile-centric U.S. and Russian nuclear forces, India still heavily relies on bombers, perhaps not unexpected for a nation that fielded its first nuclear-capable ballistic missile in 2003. (...) India’s nuclear missile force is only fifteen years old, but it already has four types of land-based ballistic missiles: the short-range Prithvi-II and Agni-I, the medium-range Agni-II and the intermediate-range Agni-III. 'At least two other longer-range Agni missiles are under development: the Agni-IV and Agni-V,' says the report. 'It remains to be seen how many of these missile types India plans to fully develop and keep in its arsenal. Some may serve as technology development programs toward longer-range missiles.'"

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18.08.2019

"100 Billion Reasons Why: Why Australia Said No to American Missiles Aimed At China"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/100-billion-reasons-why-why-australia-said-no-american-missiles-ai
med-china-74206

Michael Peck erklärt, warum die USA bei ihren Plänen zur Stationierung neuer Mittelstreckenraketen in Asien nicht auf Australien zählen sollten. "Australia has a close defense relationship with America. But that doesn’t mean Oz wants to jeopardize its relations with China by allowing the United States to station missiles on its territory. (...) why isn’t Australia jumping at the opportunity to be a U.S. missile base? Some Australians might object to making Australia a bigger target in a potential U.S.-China conflict (bonus question: will these American missiles be capable of carrying nuclear warheads?). But most important is Australia’s hundred billion-dollar trade relationship with China."

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17.08.2019

"Chinese Drones Are Going to War All Over the Middle East and Africa"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinese-drones-are-going-war-all-over-middle-east-and-africa-74246

Billige Kampfdrohnen aus chinesischer Fertigung kommen Sebastien Roblin zufolge im Nahen Osten und in Nordafrika immer häufiger bei tödlichen Angriffen zum Einsatz. "(...) China and Israel have few qualms about who buys their drones, or how they’re used. SIPRI records indicate China exported 163 UCAVs to thirteen countries 2008–2018 compared to fifteen MQ-9s delivered. Americans arms manufacturers complain their Chinese rivals are making a killing. That’s true in more than just an idiomatic sense. In violation of the UN embargo, the United Arab Emirates has not-very-covertly deployed Chinese-built Wing Loong-II drones to Al Khadim airbase in eastern Libya to support the LNA, a rebel army fighting the Tripoli-based General National Assembly faction. (...) in 2018 the Trump administration indicated it will be opening up sales of UCAVs. Despite the steeper cost of Reaper drones, Washington’s traditional clients in the Middle East may jump at the chance to curry political favor, and deploy a more reliable and capable unmanned platform. Though a boon for U.S. arms manufacturers, it also means Washington will be held culpable for, and have to deal with the consequences of, how its exported drones are used by these clients."

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17.08.2019

"The Ultimate Iran Nightmare: Not a War with America, But a Civil War"

http://https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ultimate-iran-nightmare-not-war-america-civil-war-74426

Michael Rubin vom American Enterprise Institute schreibt, dass die iranische Führung weniger eine Konfrontation mit den USA als innenpolitische Unruhen in der Peripherie des Landes fürchte. Er macht auf historische Vorläufer eines möglichen Bürgerkriegs in Iran aufmerksam und schreibt: "Simply put, in Iran, the past is prologue. When the state is weak or governments collapse, restive minorities along the periphery rebel. (...) as Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s health waivers and he approaches his final months or years, the central government’s control over the periphery appears increasingly weak. The vacuum which will follow his death will likely mean a number of simultaneous and indigenous uprisings. And, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will remain on paper a formidable force, with the regime’s leadership vacant and its commander-in-chief functions absent, it will likely be faced with simultaneous indigenous uprisings and insurgencies in Khuzistan, Kurdistan and Baluchistan. It is unclear, however, how effective the IRGC could be."

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10.08.2019

"Germany’s Pilots Don’t Have Enough Warplanes to Fly"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/germany’s-pilots-don’t-have-enough-warplanes-fly-72476

Michael Peck berichtet über die Ausstattungsprobleme der deutschen Luftstreitkräfte, die mittlerweile auch die Ausbildung der Piloten erheblich behinderten. "'The Luftwaffe is at a low point,' Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz, the Luftwaffe’s chief of staff, said last month. 'Aircraft are grounded due to a lack of spare parts, or they aren’t even on site since they’re off for maintenance.' Germany’s armed forces, dreaded during World War II and respected during the Cold War, have been ridiculed in recent years as budget cuts have resulted in a military that seems barely functional. In the summer of 2018, only ten of the Luftwaffe’s 128 Eurofighters were rated fit to fly because of spare parts shortages. In February 2019, 'on average only 39 of Germany’s 128 Eurofighter jets and 26 of its 93 older Tornado fighters were available for combat or training last year,' the Telegraph said. 'There are now concerns that pilots are leaving the air force in frustration at being unable to fly. Six pilots resigned in the first half of last year, compared to a total of 11 in the five previous year.'"

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08.08.2019

"Is White Terrorism The New 9/11?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/white-terrorism-new-911-72286

Auch Curt Mills hält einige der Reaktionen auf die Massenschießerei in El Paso für gefährlich übertrieben. Wer fordere, dass die US-Behörden auf den Extremismus weißer Rassisten ebenso reagieren sollten, wie auf den radikalislamischen Terrorismus nach den Anschlägen vom 11. September 2001, riskiere die Wiederholung bekannter Fehler. "Should America confront its fringes with the wrath it brought to the Middle East after September 11, 2001? Senators Cory Booker and Richard Durbin are demanding that the FBI and Justice Department deploy the same kind of resources that they devoted to battling global terrorism to stopping white nationalism. In the Daily Beast, Christopher Dickey argues that it should: 'Now, before it grows any stronger, should be the time to move against it with the same kind of concerted international focus of attention and resources that were trained on Osama bin Laden. Now is the time for a global war on white nationalist terrorism.' But two decades of evidence argues against changing the whole way we do business in the face of a few fanatics."

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05.08.2019

"The U.S. Has Been Averaging More Than 1 Mass Shooting Per Day"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-has-been-averaging-more-1-mass-shooting-day-71551

Adam Peck hält die jüngsten Vorfälle in El Paso und Dayton aus statistischer Sicht keineswegs für bemerkenswert. Massenschießereien seien in den USA keine Ausnahmen, sondern ein empirischer Regelfall. "(...) the United States has been averaging more than one mass shooting per day for at least the past three and a half years. According to the definition established by the Gun Violence Archive, which tracks every mass shooting in the country, a mass shooting is any incident in which at least four people were shot. And so far in 2019, there have been 255 such incidents. Monday, August 5 is just the 217th day of the year. And yes, there’s already been a mass shooting today, in Brooklyn. If current trends hold — and given Republicans’ resistance to any type of gun reform, there’s no reason to expect mass shootings to abate — 2019 will set a new high for the number of mass shootings in the United States. (...) El Paso and Dayton happening 13 hours apart isn’t just unremarkable — it’s a statistical certainty."

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29.07.2019

"Moscow Election Protests Reflect A 'Stark' Generational Shift"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/interview-konstantin-remchukov-moscow-election-protests-reflect-“s
tark”-generational-shift

Die aktuellen Proteste in Moskau seien eine Folge des Aufstiegs einer neuer Generation, die eine stärkere Beteiligung an politischen Prozessen und Entscheidungen erwartet, meint Konstantin Remchukov in diesem Gespräch mit Jacob Heilbrunn. Die russische Regierung wisse bisher nicht, wie sie darauf reagieren soll. "[The elites] think they can handle things in their old-fashioned, customary manner - pouring money into St. Petersburg, building new streets, new subways, and new shopping malls. But is it adequate for the middle class? Because the case in Moscow shows that good streets, fantastic infrastructure, public places, cannot keep them safe from the lure of democracy. And people protest anyway. (...) A lot depends on if the elite being able to understand how to talk with these people. They do not necessarily need an overwhelming majority to run the country like in the old Soviet days. No, democracy means that you simply have support - maybe by even one vote. (...) Here’s the deal: if Russian elites want to sustain their power, they need to develop this language of the simple majority rather than an overwhelming majority."

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20.07.2019

"Why Trump Won't Bomb Iran"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-trump-wont-bomb-iran-68007

Lawrence J. Korb vom Center for American Progress empfiehlt US-Präsident Trump, sich bei seiner Reaktion auf die aktuelle Krise im Golf an seinen Amtsvorgängern Obama und Reagan zu orientieren. "While many people have questioned Trump’s decision not to attack Iran’s territory and instead launch cyberattacks, it is clear that he made the right decision — even if it was executed haphazardly. Some of the people who have criticized Trump have presented a distorted picture of how Obama and Reagan might have handled the situation. Trump would do well to learn what really happened in these instances. In fact, he might consider working with Putin to start secret talks to bring Iran back to the bargaining table and strategically redeploy most of the troops in the region in order to avoid another tragic accident."

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14.07.2019

"Note to Trump: Iran Would Need 1 Year to Build a Nuclear Weapon"

http://https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/note-trump-iran-would-need-1-year-build-nuclear-weapon-6701
7

Der Iran habe Schritte unternommen, um die potentielle Entwicklungszeit einer Atombombe auf ein Jahr zu reduzieren, berichtet David Axe. "Iran’s effort to shorten the time to produce a nuke 'does not pose an immediate risk,' wrote Kelsey Davenport, an expert with the Arms Control Association in the United States. 'Currently, due to restrictions put in place by the nuclear deal, the United States estimates that timeline at 12 months,' Davenport explained in a July 2019 assessment. (...) 'Any reduction in the 12-month timeline will depend on how quickly Iran continues to enrich and stockpile uranium. Tehran would need to produce about 1,050 kilograms of uranium hexafluoride gas enriched to 3.67-percent U-235 to produce enough weapons-grade material (more than 90 percent-enriched U-235) for one bomb.'"

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13.07.2019

"The UK Is Prepping Its Special Forces to Fight Russia's 'Little Green Men'"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/uk-prepping-its-special-forces-fight-russias-“little-green-men
-66677

Auch britische Spezialeinheiten trainieren Michael Peck zufolge für eine hybride Kriegsführung in Osteuropa. "Britain is giving its vaunted special forces a special job: fighting little green men, gray wars and black ops. All these colors belong to Russia’s 'hybrid warfare' strategy, which eschews massive military force in favor of more subtle means such as political manipulation, cyberwarfare and special forces operating incognito (the 'little green men' in unmarked uniforms that spearheaded the seizure of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014). So, Britain plans to fight fire with fire by using its own special operators. (...) Sources told the BBC that the plan is being studied by the British military, before being submitted to political leaders. The idea is to use the special forces when conventional troops are unsuitable."

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12.07.2019

"Will Nationalism Poison Ukraine's New President?"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-nationalism-poison-ukraines-new-president-66897

Der neue ukrainische Präsident Zelensky könnte die in ihn gesetzten Hoffnungen auf eine Normalisierung der Beziehungen zu Russland aufgrund des erheblichen nationalistischen Drucks bald enttäuschen, schreibt Nicolai N. Petro vor den ukrainischen Parlamentswahlen am 21. Juli. "It is unclear if Zelensky understands that the true source of his popular support is the desire for normalcy with Russia. It is unclear if he can avoid the trap of nationalism that has alienated at least half the country. Continuing along that path will lead to endless civil conflict. Dialogue requires an entirely different mindset, one that Ukrainians may be ready to embrace even if their political leaders are not."

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10.07.2019

"Europe Is Stuck between the United States and Russia"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/europe-stuck-between-united-states-and-russia-66411

Lyle J. Goldstein vom China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) des United States Naval War College analysiert die Kontroverse um die deutsch-russische Gasleitung Nord Stream 2 im Kontext der aktuellen amerikanischen Russland-Politik. Dabei zeigt er Verständnis gegenüber der deutschen Haltung und spricht sich für eine stärkere Interdependenz zwischen Europa und Russland aus. "America’s hostility toward the new Russian pipelines is rather bipartisan, but the mood in Berlin in decidedly unsympathetic to Washington’s concerns. After the last few years of tumult, it seems the German foreign policy elite is not so enthusiastic about American leadership. (...) Instead of Americans trying every form of stunt to decouple Russia from Europe, they should alternatively strive for enhanced interdependence and an inclusive European security architecture that offers Moscow a seat at the table. It is not all that far-fetched as the recent news regarding Russia’s reinstated voting rights at the Council of Europe suggest. (...) Still, more than a few opportunists, on both sides of the Atlantic, continue to try to stoke hostilities with Russia. One shudders to think how many cyber-security firms would be put out of business if Russia’s relationship with the West were to substantially improve. Many Washington think tanks would also have to shed legions of young 'hybrid warfare' experts."

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01.07.2019

"A Germany F-35? Berlin Said 'Nein.'"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/germany-f-35-berlin-said-nein-65121

Dario Leone berichtet über die Hintergründe der Entscheidung der Bundeswehr, ihre veraltete Tornado-Flotte nicht mit F-35-Kampfflugzeugen, sondern mit F/A-18-Kampfflugzeugen oder modernen Eurofightern zu ersetzen. "The winner will have to be certified to carry U.S. nuclear weapons. No timetable for a decision was given, but the process could take time since the U.S. government will have to certify both jets to carry the nuclear weapons. Germany has 85 operational Tornado jets, but not all are equipped to carry nuclear weapons. (...) The decision marks a big setback for Lockheed, the top U.S. arms maker, which had hoped to add to recent F-35 sales to other European countries, including Belgium. As reported, Germany’s air force chief of staff was fired last year after he expressed a clear preference for the F-35. The ministry later said it favored a 'European solution.'"

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