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17.09.2018

"For Germany, Trump is an Opportunity for a Look in the Mirror"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/germany-trump-opportunity-look-mirror-31462

Tobias Brandt vom Institute of World Politics in Washington, DC, schreibt, dass der "Schock" über den Wahlsieg Donald Trumps in der deutschen Debatte über das Verhältnis zu den USA bis heute spürbar sei. In der Kritik am US-Präsidenten schwinge auch ein mangelndes Verständnis der amerikanischen Einstellung zur internationalen Ordnung mit. "The United States needs the system less than anybody else and, therefore, approaches international organizations in a transactional manner. If consensus in the United Nations can be established to achieve a certain goal in the American interest, great. If not, there are other, unilateral, means, like prior to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. And while America has chosen to invest energy and resources into international cooperation in order to build a sense of confidence in shared values, the more realist administrations have mostly insisted on the limitations of the system. To most Germans, this approach is abhorrent. And, in 2018, Donald Trump serves as the justification for Germany’s decades-long resentment of America’s unilateralism, arrogance and failure to coordinate with allies. (...) German leaders must stop conflating Trump with the United States. Even if they can’t find common ground or a community of values with this president, the conclusion that the West is at an end does not follow, writes Dirk Kurbjuweit in Der Spiegel. Reactions to Trump should be adequate, but not vengeful. Kurbjuweit is correct, Trump will go, but the United States will remain. And it should, indeed, remain Europe’s friend. Most importantly, Germany — and Europe as a whole — has work to do, regardless of who is in the White House."

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16.09.2018

"Could Donald Trump Truly Assassinate Assad?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/could-donald-trump-truly-assassinate-assad-31417

Dem neuen Enthüllungsbuch von Bob Woodward zufolge soll US-Präsident Trump ein Attentat auf Syriens Präsident Assad erwogen haben. Daniel R. DePetris schreibt, dass die beschriebene Episode die Frage aufwerfe, wie leicht US-Präsidenten den Tod anderer Staatschefs anordnen können. "If President Trump was intent on killing Bashar al-Assad, Kim Jong-un, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Nicolas Maduro, or any other foreign adversary of the United States, he could technically do so by simply rescinding the Reagan-era directive and replacing it with his own, less restrictive, directive. Unless the U.S. Congress responded by codifying the Reagan-era assassination ban into statute, there would be little in the way of resistance — outside of bureaucratic inertia or slow-rolling, which the Woodward book makes clear is a feature of this administration — to the president actually bringing the United States back into this murky and stomach-churning business. All that would be required from President Trump is a stroke of the pen. (...) Bob Woodward’s book exposes Trump as a man who doesn’t particularly care about norms, tradition, and conventionality. The American people may very well wake up one day and learn that the United States is dipping back into the old Cold War playbook."

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13.09.2018

"This Is How Donald Trump Can Win in the Balkans"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-donald-trump-can-win-balkans-31227

Petrit Selimi, früherer Außenminister Kosovos, begrüßt, dass die Balkanregion im vergangenen Monat zum ersten Mal auf dem außenpolitischen Radar des US-Präsidenten aufgetaucht ist. "For the first time in years, there’s a sense that one of the final remaining bilateral disputes in the western Balkans might be about to be solved. (...) Kosovo has the potential to be a major foreign-policy success while requiring a minimal investment of political capital. First, Kosovo is staunchly pro-American. The United States is viewed favorably by 92 percent of our citizens, a percentage greater than that of any other country in the world. Kosovo’s capital, Pristina, is the only city in the world where a Bill Clinton Boulevard crosses a George W. Bush Avenue and a Senator Bob Dole Street. American support for any deal would be a major reassurance for a staunch U.S. ally. Second, the issue is no longer about expensive nation-building. It’s about ensuring the finality of peace and the ability of the United States to actually reduce its military presence in the tiny Balkan republic. Third, Kosovo has overwhelming bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress."

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12.09.2018

"Russia and China Will Now Hold Military Exercises 'On a Regular Basis'"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-and-china-will-now-hold-military-exercises-regular-basis-31
157

Russland und China wollen nach dem aktuellen Vostok-Manöver in Ostsibirien künftig regelmäßig gemeinsame Militärübungen durchführen, berichtet Dave Majumdar. Experten hielten eine strategische Allianz beider Länder nicht länger für völlig ausgeschlossen. "While Russia and China have not always been on the best of terms, especially after Sino-Soviet in the 1960s, Moscow and Beijing have found common ground in recent years even if the relationship remains transactional in many ways. Even American experts on Russia are starting to accept the possibility of a genuine Beijing-Moscow entente directed against the United States. 'I think a strategic partnership is slowly in the offing, but is encumbered by the two sides' self-interest and transactional impulses,' as Center for Naval Analyses analyst Michael Kofman told The National Interest earlier this year. 'As such, the catalyst will be a third actor, namely the United States, and the extent to which those countries perceive a threat from Washington in common.'"

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04.09.2018

"Why China Is Wooing Eastern and Central Europe"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-china-wooing-eastern-and-central-europe-30492

John Van Oudenaren berichtet über die zunehmenden wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten Chinas in Ost- und Mitteleuropa und meint, dass die unter dem Motto "China plus many" betriebene Kooperation die Spaltung der EU vorantreibe. "China’s engagement with Central and Eastern Europe should be examined within the broader context of its strategy towards Europe. In recent testimony before the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission, Thorsten Benner and Thomas Wright, contend that China’s objectives towards Europe are threefold. The first objective is garnering support from EU members on policy issues that are salient to China, such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. The second aim is to erode Western Unity, both inside Europe and between the United States and Europe. The final goal is vaguer and more normative, but per Benner and Wright, it can best be approximated as 'making the world safe for China’s autocratic model,' which necessitates demonstrating that China’s political and economic systems are seen as a 'viable alternative to liberal democracies.' Clearly, China’s outreach to Eastern and Central Europe helps achieve all three of these goals."

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02.09.2018

"Russia’s Massive Vostok Military Exercise Was Intended to Prepare for War With China. So What Happened?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia’s-massive-vostok-military-exercise-was-intended-prepare-w
ar-china-so-what-happened

China wird sich an dem umfangreichen Militärmanöver Vostok beteiligen, das vom russischen Militär ab dem 11. September in Sibirien durchgeführt wird. Sebastien Roblin schreibt, dass das Manöver ursprünglich dazu dienen sollte, Russland auf einen möglichen Kriegsfall mit China vorzubereiten. "Though obscure to many in the West, border clashes during the 1960s and 1970s may have brought China and the Soviet Union closer to fighting massive ground war, or even nuclear war, than Warsaw Pact ever did vis-a-vis NATO. While Moscow-Beijing relations have significantly improved since that low point, both major military powers remain wary of potential future strategic rivalry. (...) Ultimately, both Moscow and Beijing see the Vostok 2018 exercise as a shot across the bow of Washington’s dominance in international affairs. The two authoritarian governments hold a shared interests in opposing a liberal international order valuing norms of democracy and human rights, which they perceive as undermining their internal stability and justifying Western military aggression."

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30.08.2018

"America Does Not Need a Draft"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-does-not-need-draft-30077

In der laufenden Debatte über eine mögliche Wiedereinführung der Wehrpflicht in den USA widerspricht Kevin Ryan den Argumenten von Nick De Gregorio, der sich in einem früheren Beitrag für die Dienstpflicht ausgesprochen hatte. "Service to one's nation can take many forms: emergency responders, police, teachers, military and others. It should be continuously encouraged among our citizens. But if we mandate service, is it really service? I would rather have a hundred courageous volunteers like Nick De Gregorio than a thousand reluctant warriors."

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29.08.2018

"No, America Doesn't Need to Bring Back the Draft"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/no-america-doesnt-need-bring-back-draft-29972

In der Debatte über eine Wiedereinführung der Wehrpflicht in den USA widerspricht Edward Chang einem früheren Beitrag von Nick De Gregorio und erklärt, warum er eine neue Dienstpflicht für unnötig hält. "(...) like most arguments in favor of the draft, De Gregorio’s case is undermined by several erroneous assumptions. To understand these errors, two facts must first be brought to bear. First, draft proponents stand virtually alone. Poll after poll reveals remarkable consistency regarding the draft’s unpopularity among the American public and even military veterans and their families. (...) Second, conscription has been the exception, not the norm, in American history. (...) For better or for worse, the nature of citizenship today remains the liberal variant, in which Americans treasure their individual rights, while largely resisting the notion of additional responsibilities beyond paying taxes and obeying the law. (...) many of the problems highlighted by De Gregorio, such as the civil-military disconnect, the lopsided privileging of rights over responsibilities, and the question of the public’s preparedness to meet national security challenges looming on the horizon are genuine and need to be addressed sooner rather than later. However, he is wrong about the causes and solutions."

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26.08.2018

"Why States are Turning to Proxy War"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-states-are-turning-proxy-war-29677

Daniel Byman erläutert, warum sich Staaten heute entscheiden, Stellvertreterkriege in anderen Ländern zu führen. "Indeed, it is hardly an exaggeration to say that all of today’s major wars are in essence proxy wars. (...) Understanding the prevalence of proxy war is not hard. Proxies enable intervention on the cheap. They cost a fraction of the expense of deploying a state’s own forces and the proxy does the dying. Because the costs are lower, proxy war is also more politically palatable—few Americans know the United States is bombing Libya, let alone which particular militia it supports in so doing. (...) Despite their many advantages, proxies often disappoint their sponsors. Rather than be grateful and obedient, local groups often go their own way, pursuing their own interests while pocketing the money and other support they receive. Their competence is often minimal, while their brutality knows few bounds. Some even drag their supposed masters into unwanted interventions. Proxy war, however, is not going away, and the United States must have its eyes open both when using proxies and when fighting them."

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25.08.2018

"Is China Repeating Germany's World War I Mistakes?"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-repeating-germanys-world-war-i-mistakes-29667

Die chinesische Kriegsmarine soll nach dem Willen von Präsident Xi Jinping bald zu den mächtigsten der Welt gehören. Nach Ansicht von John Maurer könnte Xi damit den Fehler des deutschen Kaisers Wilhelm II wiederholen. "t a recent show of Chinese naval might in the South China Sea, President Xi Jinping called for China to acquire a world-class navy, declaring to the assembled officers and crews that there has never been a more urgent need for the country to possess a powerful fleet. (...) Standing tall at center stage of this spectacle, Xi took the fleet’s salute. He delivered his lines, posing as the heroic warrior dressed in military uniform — the lead actor to be reckoned with in an unfolding grand historical drama involving the fate of nations. There were echoes in his speech of a similar call to national greatness by the leader of an earlier aspiring world power. At the turn of the twentieth century, Kaiser Wilhelm II proclaimed that his country had an urgent need for a naval buildup to counter the British Royal Navy in its drive to find a 'place in the sun.'"

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19.08.2018

"Russian Spy Submarines Are Tampering with Undersea Cables That Make the Internet Work. Should We Be Worried?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russian-spy-submarines-are-tampering-undersea-cables-make-internet
-work-should-we-be

Sebastien Roblin macht auf die verstärkten Aktivitäten russischer U-Boote in der Nähe der Tiefseekabel, die das Rückgrat des globalen Internets bilden, aufmerksam. "Washington is reportedly plenty worried about this fact, but can’t exactly get on its high horse about this activity, as U.S. submarines actually pioneered the art of tapping into submarine cables decades earlier. In fact, the USS Jimmy Carter, one of only three super-advanced Sea Wolf class submarines built, has been specially modified to perform such missions. (...) It’s not exactly clear what the Russian submarines, under the direction of the Russian Navy’s Directorate of Deep Sea Research (GUGI) are doing with the cables — or what they’re capable of doing. Tapping into the cables requires exotic techniques to access the delicate fibers inside the cable without exposing them to seawater. The Jimmy Carter reportedly uses a special floodable chamber to perform this operation. No Russian ships are confirmed to have such a capability, but Russian media sources have claimed a capability to hack into the cables."

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15.08.2018

"Terrorists are Tightening Their Grip on Yemen"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/terrorists-are-tightening-their-grip-yemen-28842

Der andauernde Krieg in Jemen habe die Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) einer Untersuchung der Associated Press zufolge keineswegs geschwächt, berichtet Michael Horton. "The Associated Press investigation, which appears to have been based on extensive in-country interviews, paints a picture of AQAP as an organization that remains as formidable as it is capable. This stands in contrast to the assessment being put forward by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and some Yemen analysts who argue that AQAP is a fragmented organization that has been greatly weakened by coalition backed counterinsurgency operations in southern Yemen. This view of AQAP as a weak and fragmented organization may reflect a misunderstanding of AQAP’s strategy in Yemen. Rather than being weak and fragmented, AQAP is drawing on the lessons that it has learned from the past six years of failures and successes. Chief among these is that it is adopting a more pragmatic strategy that embraces a decentralized or nodal structure. Such a move away from centralization could easily be mistaken for fragmentation. However, it is more likely that AQAP is merely adapting to and taking advantage of the ever-shifting contours of Yemen’s three-year-old war."

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14.08.2018

"Draft Time: This Is Why and How America Should Have Compulsory Military Service"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/draft-time-why-and-how-america-should-have-compulsory-military-servi
ce-28747

Auch in den USA diskutieren Experten über eine mögliche Wiedereinführung der Wehrpflicht. Nick De Gregorio begründet, warum er eine "Korrektur" der Entscheidung von 1973 zur Aussetzung des Militärdienstes für notwendig hält. "A correction to the post-Vietnam over-correction is due. Defense of America and its ideals must be made collective again, lest Americans become culturally over-reliant on a small, professional soldiery that shares increasingly fewer social commonalities with the people it is charged with defending. A national service program should augment the current all-volunteer U.S. military. This will foster a culture of universal contribution among citizens and prevent the emergence of a society so internally fractured that it lacks the will and ability to assert itself against America’s many external threats. (...) If America fails to return to a conscription model, cultural deterioration will continue, an insufficient number of citizens will answer the call of military duty, and America will not be able to go to war. A national service program should not be implemented simply to limit U.S. involvement abroad (noble as that end may be), but to ensure that America possesses in perpetuity the ability to involve itself abroad when it is in the national interest."

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14.08.2018

"North Korea Can Keep Its Nukes — But Only Under This Condition"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/north-korea-can-keep-its-nukes—-only-under-condition-28742

Sollte Nordkorea die USA in den Verhandlungen über das nordkoreanische Atomprogramm weiter hinhalten, wäre ein Krieg nach Ansicht von Grant Newsham eine "realistische Option". Als ersten Schritt hält Newsham eine nordkoreanische Geste des guten Willens für notwendig. Eine Verlegung der nordkoreanischen Artillerie wäre seiner Ansicht nach eine solche Geste. "The thousands of artillery pieces and missiles — many in hardened, concealed positions — that can range Seoul are effectively a nuclear weapon. And a 'nuclear' weapon that can be delivered with more ease and accuracy than North Korea’s existing missile-launched nuclear weapons. So if the Kim regime moves these weapons out of range of Seoul, then it effectively relinquishes a nuclear weapon — and one that has been a trump card for decades — hamstringing American and allied options for pressuring North Korea. Taking Seoul out of range would put North Korea at a genuine disadvantage — and indeed, constitute a strategic concession on Pyongyang’s part. (...) Of course, it’s possible to bring the artillery and missiles back into position if negotiations don’t go as Pyongyang prefers. But doing so would be a clear sign of escalation or warlike intent. And as importantly, the weaponry would be subject to interdiction (or in other words, destruction) as it is being put back into position."

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14.08.2018

"Five Reasons for the Global Pushback on New Iran Sanctions"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/five-reasons-global-pushback-new-iran-sanctions-28757

Lawrence J. Korb nennt fünf Gründe, warum die neuen US-Sanktionen gegen den Iran international auf großen Widerstand treffen. "The pushback against these sanctions is coming for at least five reasons. First, the JCPOA was working much better than any previous multi-national arms accord. (...) Second, since the JCPOA, Iran has increased its daily oil exports from about 1 million barrels a day to nearly 3 million. This increase has helped keep the global price of oil significantly below the levels of 2011 and 2012 when it reached more than $100 a barrel. (...) Third, the JCPOA allowed the comparatively moderate Iranian government of President Rouhani to win reelection because the deal allowed the Iranian economy to achieve more growth than it did during the period when the sanctions existed. (...) Fourth, it has prevented a nuclear arms race or even a war in the Middle East. (...) Fifth, the U.S. withdrawal and re-imposition of sanctions appears not to be based on a clear strategy or have realistic objectives. (...) As the United States contemplates increasing sanctions on Iran over the next ninety days, it should not only reflect on the pushback from other nations but on a warning former U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew made in a 2016 speech. He warned that there is a risk that overuse of sanctions could reduce America’s capability to use sanctions effectively by driving global financial transactions and business away from the United States."

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07.08.2018

"Could India's Missile Defense Trigger a Nuclear War with Pakistan?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/could-indias-missile-defense-trigger-nuclear-war-pakistan-28107

Der erfolgreiche Test eines indischen Raketenabwehrsystems könnte das Wettrüsten zwischen Indien und Pakistan gefährlich anheizen, warnt Michael Peck. "When America and the Soviet Union developed anti-missile systems in the 1960s, the opposing superpower either built more missiles, or increased the number of warheads on existing missiles, to saturate enemy defenses. So what will Pakistan do? (...) a Pakistani buildup might prompt an India buildup, sparking a vicious cycle reminiscent of the Cold War. India and Pakistan 'are already in an arms race for all intents and purposes and have been so for some time,' Georgetown University professor C. Christine Fair, who has written on the Pakistani military, told The National Interest. (...) 'The biggest problem from India's side is that it all too frequently announced that it has a capability which mobilizes Pakistan to innovate when in fact India is a long way from achieving the stated capability but Pakistan has already developed a counter measure,' Fair warns."

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05.08.2018

"Germany’s Air Force Is in a Lot of Trouble"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/germany’s-air-force-lot-trouble-27992

Die Materialprobleme der Bundeswehr sind Zachary Keck zufolge auch in der Luftwaffe offensichtlich. "Germany’s Air Force is in a lot of trouble, according to its leader. 'The Luftwaffe is at a low point,' Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz, Germany’s new chief of the air force, said in a speech on June 27, Reuters reported. The Luftwaffe is the official name of the Air Force. Gerhartz added: 'Aircraft are grounded due to a lack of spare parts, or they aren’t even on site since they’re off for maintenance by the industry,' Part of these problems are called by bureaucratic ineffectiveness, he implied. According to Gerhartz, a 400-hour inspection of Germany’s Eurofighters was supposed to take seven months. It ended up lasting fourteen months. (...) When Germany was considering joining the anti-ISIS coalition strikes in 2015, the military issued a report about the state of its Tornado jets. The results were startling. According to the German newspaper Deutsche Welle, the report said that 'less than half of its arsenal of Tornados was actually ready for deployment surfaced. Out of 93 commissioned fighter jets, only 66 were operational in general terms and only 29 were combat-ready at the current time.'"

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01.08.2018

"There Will Be No Second Iran Deal"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/there-will-be-no-second-iran-deal-27507

Die US-Regierung scheint nach Ansicht von Gil Barndollar zu glauben, dass der Iran mit Hilfe wirtschaftlicher Sanktionen "gebrochen" und bei neuen Verhandlungen zu Kompromissen gezwungen werden könne. Wie unrealistisch diese Hoffnung sei, zeige u.a. das Beispiel Kuba. Zudem sei der Iran in eine Position gedrängt worden, in der jeder Kompromiss innenpolitisch als Schwäche erscheinen würde. "Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his foreign minister and chief negotiator, Mohammad Javad Zarif, barely got the JCPOA through amidst domestic opposition and suspicion of America. For their exertions, they were rewarded with a travel ban that treats their citizens like terrorists and a unilateral American withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May. Ali Motahari, the deputy speaker of Iran’s parliament, said that 'Today, negotiations with the U.S. bring humiliation.' If Rouhani accepts renewed negotiations, he would be rightly denounced at home as a quisling, like the Qajar shahs who sold their country to the British and the Russians a century ago."

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31.07.2018

"Mike Pompeo's Plan to Deny China Exclusive Rights to the Indo-Pacific Region"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/mike-pompeos-plan-deny-china-exclusive-rights-indo-pacific-region-27
387

Nach der Enthüllung eines amerikanischen Wirtschaftskonzepts für den indo-pazifischen Raum durch US-Außenminister Pompeo schreibt Salvatore Babones, dass die US-Regierung mit ihrer neuen regionalpolitischen Strategie vor allem eine chinesische Dominanz verhindern will. "(...) China’s program focuses on linking Indo-Pacific countries to China. The U.S. program is about opening the Indo-Pacific to the world. But perhaps the most important thing about Pompeo’s regional diplomatic offensive is its focus on promoting private-sector investment. China’s investments in the region are state-led and state-run. That means there are lots of diplomatic strings attached, as everyone in the region understands. As Pompeo pointed out, with U.S. private-sector investment, 'what you see is what you get.' When you let China build a road, it’s a road to China. When you let private industry build an internet connection, it’s a road to anywhere you want to go. Even China benefits when regional infrastructure is free and open. In fact, China may benefit most — if it allows its people and companies to participate."

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29.07.2018

"America Must Update Its Lethal Drone Policy — Here's How"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/america-must-update-its-lethal-drone-policy—heres-how-26591

Rachel Stohl vom Stimson Center meint, dass die USA ihre Regeln für den Einsatz von Kampfdrohnen aktualisieren und damit auch neue internationale Standards setzen sollten. "For example, Americans need to know if the U.S. drone program is achieving its strategic objectives. It’s not enough to say America is killing more terrorists. Instead, policymakers need to better understand the long-term impacts of the U.S. drone program. Also, America must do better to acknowledge and address civilian casualties resulting from drone strikes. If the United States makes a mistake, it has to acknowledge it and make amends. (...) The United States has an opportunity to exert leadership and establish an appropriate and responsible policy on armed drones. A U.S. drone policy that values human rights, the rule of law, and good governance would not only be consistent with protecting U.S. national security interests but could help further U.S. foreign policy ideals and principles."

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23.07.2018

"China Can't Launch a Full-Scale Military Invasion of Taiwan (Yet)"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/china-cant-launch-full-scale-military-invasion-taiwan-yet-26621

Könnte sich China entschließen, den Anspruch auf Taiwan durch eine militärische Invasion durchzusetzen? Dave Majumdar hält dies aus heutiger Sicht für unwahrscheinlich, da eine Invasion auch aus geographischen Gründen sehr schwierig wäre. Andere Operationen wären aus Sicht des US-Militärs allerdings vorstellbar: "While a full-scale invasion of Taiwan is likely beyond the scope of current Chinese capabilities, the People’s Liberation Army could mount a naval blockade or conduct a more limited military campaign. 'PLA writings describe a Joint Blockade campaign in which China would employ kinetic blockades of maritime and air traffic, including a cut-off of Taiwan’s vital imports to force Taiwan’s capitulation,' [the Pentagon’s 2017 Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China report] states. 'According to these writings, large-scale missile strikes and, possibly, seizures of Taiwan’s offshore islands would accompany a Joint Blockade in an attempt to achieve a rapid Taiwan surrender, while at the same time posturing air and naval forces to conduct weeks or months of blockade operations if necessary.' Another option for Beijing could be a limited military campaign that stopped short of PLA troops setting foot on Taiwanese soil."

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23.07.2018

"No Easy War Here: Why America Isn't Invading Iran Anytime Soon"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/no-easy-war-here-why-america-isnt-invading-iran-anytime-soon-26586

Anlässlich der neuen Drohungen Donald Trumps gegen den Iran veröffentlicht The National Interest einen Beitrag aus dem Jahr 2015, in dem Zachary Keck erläutert, vor welchen Hindernissen eine amerikanische Invasion des Landes stehen würde. "The only military action that can truly prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, then, is for the United States to invade and occupy the country, potentially turning it over to a U.S.-friendly regime that would uphold Iran’s non-nuclear status. Despite the widespread support in the United States for preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon, this option is almost never proposed by any serious observer. Part of this undoubtedly reflects America’s fatigue following the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, it goes much deeper than that — namely, while Iran’s military is greatly inferior to the U.S. armed forces, the U.S. military would not be able to conquer Iran swiftly and cheaply like it did in Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, Tehran would be able to impose prohibitive costs against the U.S. military, even before the difficult occupation began."

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10.07.2018

"A Strategic Reset for NATO"

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/strategic-reset-nato-25396

Zalmay Khalilzad hält US-Präsident Trumps Grundsatzkritik an der NATO durchaus für begründet, da das Militärbündnis in seiner jetzigen Form nicht mehr lange bestehen könne. "The alliance is ill-structured, ill-equipped and ill-financed to deal with the European region’s two major security problems — an aggressive Russia and the spillover of instability and terrorism from the Middle East and North Africa—leaving aside emerging global security challenges. Worse, at times some members can even be said to have enabled the threat. One example being the massive German purchase of Russian gas, which provides Putin with ongoing financing. To deal effectively with these challenges on an equitable and sustained basis among allies, the terms of the partnership must be renegotiated and its common ground redefined. This is in Europe’s best interest too. (...) Also, Europe faces a threat from the south, as the crisis in the Middle East and Europe’s permissive asylum laws and expansive welfare systems have triggered a flow of hundreds of thousands of refugees. The series of terrorist attacks in Europe inspired or coordinated by the Islamic State is one consequence. This terrorist threat — which combines external and internal security problems — is one NATO is ill designed to address."

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24.06.2018

"Why the United States Needs North Korea to Stay Nuclear"

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-the-united-states-needs-north-korea-stay-nuclear-26382?page=show

Hongyu Zhang und Kevin Wang erläutern, warum nordkoreanische Atomwaffen für die USA aus ihrer Sicht nicht von strategischem Nachteil sein müssten. "There are two reasons for this. First, possessing nuclear weapons is the best way to pacify North Korea and constrain its aggression. Second, a secure and independent North Korea (without the presence of Chinese or U.S. forces) would also provide a buffer against great power tensions. The long-term primary objective of U.S. strategy in East Asia should be to contain a rising China. To achieve this, the United States must minimize Chinese influence on its neighboring states — whether they are U.S. allies or not. A limited North Korean nuclear arsenal is the most effective way to make this happen."

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21.06.2018

"These are the Benefits of a U.S.-Russia Summit"

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/these-are-the-benefits-us-russia-summit-26371?page=show

Matthew Rojansky und Andrey Kortunov meinen, dass Bedeutung und Tragweite von Gipfeltreffen zwischen Staatsführern nicht unterschätzt werden sollten. Auch die aktuell angespannten Beziehungen zwischen den USA und Russland könnten demnach durch ein Treffen Donald Trumps mit Wladimir Putin trotz vieler Vorbehalte in beiden Ländern einen neuen Impuls erhalten. "In Russia there is widespread skepticism about any Trump-Putin meeting. Pundits and opinion-makers raise doubts about whether Trump can deliver on any significant matters important to Moscow. The predominant mood is that the U.S. president remains a hostage to the unanimously anti-Russian Washington establishment and that any agreement with him can be overruled by the U.S. Congress or even by his own administration. Yet what should be in the forefront of the minds of both presidents is the dangerous state of U.S.-Russia relations, and its consequences for the interests of both countries and for global security. (...) The current conflict is not a new Cold War, nor will it become one. But attention should be paid to the vital lesson from that conflict, which is that summit diplomacy is not just for celebrating big victories — it is for giving momentum to the small steps and everyday interactions that kept that war from turning hot."

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18.06.2018

"The Worst-Kept Military Secret on the Planet: Israel Has Nuclear Weapons"

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-worst-kept-secret-military-secret-the-planet-israel-has-263
19?page=show

Das bis heute offiziell nicht bestätigte israelische Atomwaffenprogramm sei aus der Sorge entstanden, dass das Land in einem konventionellen Konflikt mit seinen arabischen Nachbarstaaten besiegt werden könnte, schreibt Robert Farley. Im Jom-Kippur-Krieg 1973 sei die atomare Option einigen Aussagen zufolge offenbar ernsthaft diskutiert worden. Auch heute stehe der Einsatz der israelischen Atomwaffen im Fall der drohenden Niederlage in einem konventionellen Konflikt im Raum. "It is unlikely, but hardly impossible, that Israel could decide to use nuclear weapons first in a future conflict. The best way to prevent this from happening is to limit the reasons why Israel might want to use these weapons, which is to say preventing the further proliferation of nukes. If Israel ever does use nuclear weapons in anger, it will rewrite the diplomatic and security architecture of the Middle East, and also the nonproliferation architecture of the world as a whole."

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15.06.2018

"Is NATO Pushing Russia Towards Retaliation?"

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/nato-pushing-russia-towards-retaliation-26281

Ted Galen Carpenter betrachtet die aktuelle norwegische Bitte um die Stationierung zusätzlicher US-Soldaten an der norwegischen Grenze zu Russland als weiteres Beispiel eines "provozierenden" Auftretens des Militärbündnisses. Die Strategie der Eindämmung Russlands werde von der NATO seit dem Ende des Kalten Krieges unausgesprochen weiterverfolgt. "NATO leaders continue to insist that the Alliance has no offensive intent against Russia or that the Alliance seeks to undermine Moscow’s interests. But NATO’s behavior belies such assurances. The interventions in Bosnia and Kosovo that weakened and eventually truncated Serbia, a longstanding Russian ally, was certainly not a friendly act. Stationing Alliance (most notably U.S.) forces and weapons systems in NATO’s easternmost members, (a process that has accelerated markedly since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014) likewise is provocative. (...) U.S. and NATO leaders need to adopt a much more realistic attitude. Any nation would regard NATO’s behavior as decidedly unfriendly, and even menacing, if conducted on its frontiers. Continuing such actions while cynically denying their hostile intent could easily lead to miscalculation and a catastrophic confrontation."

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11.06.2018

"Yes, North Korea Will Give up Its Nukes and Kim Jong Un Is Crying to Prove It"

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/yes-north-korea-will-give-its-nukes-kim-jong-un-crying-prove-26223

Larry Ong schreibt, dass Kim Jong-un zur Aufgabe der eigenen Atomwaffen bereit sei, da diese sich als ernste Bedrohung des nordkoreanischen Regimes herausgestellt hätten. "Kim will likely agree to abandon his nuclear weapons because they are currently threatening, and not ensuring, the survival of his regime. Regime survivability comes first and foremost for the authoritarian communist regimes of North Korea and China. (...) Faced with an unwilling China and an uncompromising America, Kim may find that he has no choice but to agree to Trump’s demand for complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization to preserve his rule. After all, Trump has promised to help North Korea achieve economic prosperity on par with South Korea and give security guarantees if Kim abandons his nukes. The catch is that for Kim, the biggest headache would come from selling the deal to North Koreans without losing prestige. Already, the propaganda gears are whirling."

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04.06.2018

"Germany and Russia Are Getting Closer — Here's Why"

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/germany-russia-are-getting-closer—heres-why-26116

Nicholas J. Myers schreibt in seiner Replik auf die Analyse der aktuellen deutsch-russischen Beziehungen durch Lyle J. Goldstein, dass Berlin offenbar ein neues Kapitel seiner Russland-Diplomatie aufgeschlagen habe. Auch das Festhalten an der viel kritisierten Gaspipeline Nord Stream 2 deute darauf hin, dass die Beziehungen nicht so stark beschädigt seien, wie von einigen Beobachtern angenommen werde. "(...) Russian media have taken to calling German-Russian relations one of 'renaissance' in the wake of these summits, though Lavrov officially claims that relations never actually soured. At the press conference following Merkel and Putin’s meeting, Merkel described NordStream 2 as a project very much underway for which it would provide an 'active role' and 'assistance,' despite ongoing questions of Russian natural gas exports to Ukraine should the project continue. The dry spell of Russia’s diplomacy in Europe that set in after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014 also appears to be, if not coming to a definite close, at least opening a new chapter."

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03.06.2018

"Don't Be Fooled — Ukraine Is Not a Frozen Conflict"

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/dont-be-fooled%E2%80%94ukraine-not-frozen-conflict-26096

Lyle J. Goldstein vom United States Naval War College warnt davor, die Konfrontation in der Ost-Ukraine als "eingefrorenen Konflikt" zu betrachten, der nicht eskalieren könne. Für die amerikanische Sicherheit sei die Situation dort ungleich gefährlicher als z.B. die Lage in Iran oder Nordkorea. "In light of this, it is good news that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Sochi recently to discuss many issues, but also to prevent the Ukraine situation from melting down. However, this one bright spot comes against a steady drumbeat of bad news over the last several months. (...) The sad truth seems to be that the stalwarts of the 'Russia threat syndrome' have pushed the thin 'Russia-gate' narrative with such determination that an Administration formerly inclined toward the common sense solution of finding a modus vivendi with the Kremlin, has apparently overcompensated to assuage its multitude of critics and lurched naively into a frontal challenge to Russia’s obvious 'core interests.' Such reckless actions (when considered in the aggregate with NATO expansion) may well have already poisoned the well of European security for the next 100 years."

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