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06.11.2019

"A stronger Europe to face down Trump? Don’t count on it"

https://www.politico.eu/article/stronger-europe-to-tackle-donald-trump-dont-count-on-it/

Eine Wiederwahl des US-Präsidenten im nächsten Jahr würde die EU nicht in gestärkter Opposition zu Donald Trump zusammenführen, sondern bestehende Differenzen eher vertiefen, erwartet Marcel Dirsus. "Historically, American support has played an integral role in bringing Europe together. Diplomatic support aside, U.S. security guarantees provided the conditions necessary for the emergence of the European Union in the first place. As the American security umbrella becomes less trustworthy under Trump, old fault lines will become more visible and new divisions will emerge. As NATO weakens, some European countries will attempt to strike bilateral deals with the U.S. to guarantee their security. Others will argue in favor of pushing full steam ahead for some sort of European solution. At the same time, the EU will be losing one of its most powerful militaries to Brexit. (…) Europe is still in denial about how bad things could get. It’s increasingly popular among European politicians to call for the EU to get rid of the need for unanimity on foreign and security policy decisions. The difficulty of finding consensus, they argue, is holding Europe back. But far from a necessary answer to Trump’s America First approach, this risks only making things worse."

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30.10.2019

"Time for a Balkan reboot"

https://www.politico.eu/article/balkan-reboot-eu-accession-talks/

Die französische Ablehnung von Beitrittsgesprächen der EU mit Albanien und Nord-Mazedonien habe die bisherige Balkan-Strategie der Europäischen Union praktisch beendet, stellt der österreichische Politologe Florian Bieber fest. "That doesn’t mean the EU, unable to move forward until everyone is on board, should give up on the Balkans. It means it should look at the impasse as an opportunity to rethink its relationship with the region. For the EU, this could be the moment to finally focus on developing better tools to deal with autocrats in the region who have few incentives to let go of their informal control of national institutions. The Commission identified this as a problem last year, but has been too timid in its attempt to deal with it, choosing instead to make the enlargement process more complex and cumbersome, and kick the can down the road. France has claimed to want to revamp the way the EU approaches accession talks. This rings hollow, given Paris has not taken the initiative in proposing how to do so. This is the EU’s moment to take them up on it."

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07.10.2019

"We’re More at Risk of Nuclear War With Russia Than We Think"

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/10/07/were-more-at-risk-of-nuclear-war-with-russia-than-we-t
hink-229436

George Beebe, ehemaliger Direktor der Russland-Abteilung der CIA, warnt vor der von vielen unterschätzten Gefahr eines Atomkriegs zwischen Russland und den USA. In Washington habe sich ein falsches Gefühl der Sicherheit ausgebreitet, das Politiker dazu verleite, gegenüber Russland so hart wie möglich aufzutreten und Gespräche mit Moskau generell als "Appeasement" zu verteufeln. "I’ve seen that three misguided assumptions underlie how the United States got to this point. The first is that American policymakers think that because neither side wants nuclear war, then such a war is very unlikely to occur. (...) A related, second assumption American policymakers make is seeing the Russian threat as primarily a deterrence problem. (...) Lastly, the United States assumes that Russia’s anti-American hostility flows from the internal nature of its regime, and therefore is likely to diminish when a more enlightened leader with more liberal approaches succeeds Putin. (...) Washington’s approach must dispassionately balance firmness with accommodation, military readiness with diplomatic outreach — all without skewing too far toward either concession or confrontation. It’s a difficult balance, but the United States is not even attempting it at the moment."

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30.09.2019

"How U.S. military aid became a lifeline for Ukraine"

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/09/30/ukraine-united-states-military-aid-013792

Im Amtsenthebungsverfahren gegen den US-Präsidenten spielt die amerikanische Militärhilfe für die Ukraine, die von Donald Trump in angeblich erpresserischer Absicht zurückgehalten worden ist, eine zentrale Rolle. Bryan Bender und Wesley Morgan berichten, dass seit 2014 militärische Hilfsgelder in Höhe von über 1,5 Milliarden US-Dollar in die Ukraine geflossen seien. Die Abhängigkeit des Landes von den Zahlungen sei entsprechend hoch. "'Ukraine would never be where it is without that support from the United States,' said Ash Carter, who served as President Barack Obama’s defense secretary from 2015 to 2017. 'Everything we were doing there to train their military forces, their National Guard, to improve the professionalism and reduce corruption in the defense ministry … all that was critical.' Before the aid influx, 'the Ukrainian military was in woeful shape,' said Mariya Omelicheva, a professor of national security strategy at the Pentagon’s National Defense University who specializes in the region. (...) The vast majority of the funds, approved with bipartisan support in Congress, has financed items such as sniper rifles; rocket-propelled grenade launchers; counter-artillery radars; command and control and communications systems; night vision goggles; medical equipment; as well training and logistical support."

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27.09.2019

"Trump Killed the Seriousness of Impeachment"

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/27/trump-impeachment-analysis-228580

John F. Harris meint in der Debatte über eine mögliche Amtsenthebung des US-Präsidenten, dass die ursprüngliche Seriosität des Verfahrens stark gelitten habe. "The deeper change is that most Americans no longer respect the institutions of Washington, and many believe at some fundamental level they are not on the level. The Gallup polling organization has been measuring this trend for decades. Back in the 1970s, when my mother and most Americans no matter their partisan affiliation were shocked by Nixon’s lawbreaking, the presidency, Congress and the media all commanded majority or near-majority support when people were asked whether they had high 'confidence' in the institutions. These days, none of these institutions is even close to majority support, and only 11 percent of people say they have 'a great deal' or 'quite a lot' of confidence in Congress. This trend may be a solemn development — but don’t expect it to receive a lot of solemnity."

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26.09.2019

"The end of the German-American affair"

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-end-of-the-german-american-affair-angela-merkel-donald-trump/

Matthew Karnitschnig analysiert die Ursachen des seiner Ansicht nach deutlich sichtbaren Auseinanderdriftens der Bündnispartner USA und Deutschland. "Nearly 75 years after the end of World War II, the U.S.-German relationship isn’t just moribund, it’s on life support. At both the official and unofficial level, the foundation that has supported the transatlantic alliance since the 1950s is crumbling. About 85 percent of Germans consider their country’s relationship with the U.S. to be 'bad' or 'very bad,' according to a recent study, while a clear majority want Germany to distance itself from the U.S. (...) The fraying of ties — which began long before Trump came to power but has accelerated since — carries implications that stretch far beyond the two countries’ bilateral relationship. With China seeking to expand its influence in Europe, and Russia eager to exploit the transatlantic rift, the disintegration of German-American unity would have profound implications for the future of NATO and the broader global order. That might be why both sides are trying to pretend everything is OK."

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23.09.2019

"Why Trump Will Survive Even This"

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/23/donald-trump-ukraine-whistleblower-survive-228153

Jack Shafer hält es praktisch für ausgeschlossen, dass US-Präsident Trump aufgrund der Kontroverse um sein Telefongespräch mit dem ukrainischen Präsidenten tatsächlich eine Amtsenthebung fürchten muss. "(...) Trump has got to be hoping House Democrats toss him in the impeachment patch. No matter how the House votes, we can’t expect the Republican Senate to convict. Such an acquittal, following his 'victory' over Mueller, would only magnify Trump’s martyrdom in the eyes of his followers. (...) If Democrats hope to evict Trump from the White House, they’ll have to do better than bang their impeachment pots and pans outside his bedroom window. They’ll have go after his positives and his 2016 campaign promises. Has he made the economy stronger, as he claims? Maybe not. The Federal Reserve Bank just dropped rates to goose an economy feared to be entering a recession. Has he made America safer? More respected? Has he brought China to heel? Built the wall? Locked up Hillary Clinton? Stop thinking you can thwart Trump. You can’t shame a man who won’t be shamed. You can only vote him out."

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21.09.2019

"Why Trump’s Ukraine scandal could backfire on Biden"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/21/trump-ukraine-biden-1507051

Trump-Gegner in den USA wollen die Enthüllungen über ein Telefongespräch zwischen dem US-Präsidenten und dem ukrainischen Präsidenten Zelenskiy nutzen, um eine Amtsenthebung Trumps voranzutreiben. Die Wahlkampfchancen des vom Skandal ebenfalls betroffenen demokratischen Präsidentschaftskandidaten Joe Biden könnten allerdings darunter leiden, schreibt Politico. "Despite the outrage that greeted reports of the president’s actions, Biden’s immediate response was no simple matter. His son Hunter Biden’s lucrative contracts with Ukraine — at the same time the vice president was in charge of U.S. policy toward the country raised — raised the prospect of fueling a narrative with downside political risk for Biden. 'This puts him on the ropes over having to talk about this,' said Patrick Murray, a pollster with Monmouth University. 'He certainly doesn’t want to talk about this, his family.' (...) For months, Biden has sidestepped questions about his son’s business dealings, which were criticized when they were reported in 2015 by both The New York Times as well as Russia’s state-run Izvestia news service. The controversy can be traced back to March 2014, when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in Eastern Ukraine, setting off an international crisis. As the administration’s point-man on Ukraine, Biden led the U.S. response."

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18.09.2019

"Trump's new national security adviser is the anti-Bolton in style only"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/18/trump-to-nominate-us-hostage-negotiator-robert-obrien-as-nation
al-security-adviser-1501811

Auch Politico stellt fest, dass sich der neue Sicherheitsberater des US-Präsidenten von seinem Vorgänger vor allem im Auftreten unterscheide. "People who have worked with and are close to O’Brien describe him as similarly aggressive as his predecessor on issues like Iran, but more of a congenial colleague than Bolton, who was known as a sharp bureaucratic infighter. And unlike Bolton, O’Brien, a career lawyer before working in government, is not a big name in the intelligence and national security world, indicating he will likely bring a much lower profile to the job. 'He worked for John Bolton at the United Nations and might be as hawkish,' said Andrew Exum, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy from 2015-2016 who knows O’Brien and has traveled with him. 'But he’s certainly not as pugilistic.'"

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17.09.2019

"Trump leans against striking Iran"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/17/trump-iran-strike-1500742

In der internen Debatte des Weißen Hauses nach dem Angriff auf Ölanlagen in Saudi-Arabien neige Präsident Trump bisher dazu, auf einen Militärschlag gegen den Iran zu verzichten, berichtet Politico. "Trump is reluctant to take military action in the Middle East because he wants to live up to his campaign vows to reduce foreign entanglements, according to multiple people who speak with him regularly. He’s also worried about the economic and political ramifications of embroiling the United States in a war with Iran, which stands accused of the recent attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. (...) The White House declined to comment on the president’s internal deliberations. But when it comes to Iran, Trump is consulting a wide range of inputs. Over the past 10 days, about a dozen outside advisers have weighed in with him on Iran, including Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has tried to mediate between the U.S. and Tehran; Ric Grenell, the U.S. ambassador to Germany; anti-interventionist Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.); and Freedom Caucus stalwart Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), according to a Washington Republican familiar with the president’s conversations. Many — but not all — of those voices are urging Trump to show restraint, this person said."

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16.09.2019

"Trump's deference to Saudi Arabia infuriates much of D.C."

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/16/saudi-trump-oil-iran-1498147

Im US-Kongress stoßen die überschwänglichen Solidaritätsbekundungen Donald Trumps gegenüber Saudi-Arabien auf zum Teil deutliche Ablehnung, berichtet Nahal Toosi. "In a series of tweets this weekend, Trump indicated that Iran is behind the recent attack on Saudi oil facilities and that the United States will respond after hearing from the Saudi government 'under what terms we would proceed.' His implication — that the royal family in Riyadh will dictate U.S. actions — prompted fury in Washington, where the Saudis have faced an increasingly hostile climate in recent years, especially in Congress and even among some of Trump’s fellow Republicans. (...) Saudi Arabia’s reputation in Washington is arguably worse now than it has been in nearly two decades — almost as politically charged as in the years immediately following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, when it was revealed that 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudis."

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12.09.2019

"Israel accused of planting mysterious spy devices near the White House"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/12/israel-white-house-spying-devices-1491351

Hat der israelische Geheimdienst die US-Regierung ausspioniert? Daniel Lippman berichtet, dass die Entdeckung von mutmaßlich israelischen Abhörgeräten in Washington vom Weißen Haus heruntergespielt worden sei. "The U.S. government concluded within the past two years that Israel was most likely behind the placement of cellphone surveillance devices that were found near the White House and other sensitive locations around Washington, according to three former senior U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter. But unlike most other occasions when flagrant incidents of foreign spying have been discovered on American soil, the Trump administration did not rebuke the Israeli government, and there were no consequences for Israel’s behavior, one of the former officials said. (...) The devices were likely intended to spy on President Donald Trump, one of the former officials said, as well as his top aides and closest associates — though it’s not clear whether the Israeli efforts were successful."

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08.09.2019

"The Shocking Paper Predicting the End of Democracy"

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/08/shawn-rosenberg-democracy-228045

Rick Shenkman stellt eine neue Studie des Politikwissenschaftlers Shawn Rosenberg von der University of California vor, der ein baldiges Ende der demokratischen Ordnung voraussagt und sich dabei vor allem auf psychologische Ursachen beruft. "As much as President Donald Trump’s liberal critics might want to lay America’s ills at his door, Rosenberg says the president is not the cause of democracy’s fall — even if Trump’s successful anti-immigrant populist campaign may have been a symptom of democracy’s decline. We’re to blame, said Rosenberg. As in 'we the people.' Democracy is hard work. And as society’s 'elites' — experts and public figures who help those around them navigate the heavy responsibilities that come with self-rule — have increasingly been sidelined, citizens have proved ill equipped cognitively and emotionally to run a well-functioning democracy. As a consequence, the center has collapsed and millions of frustrated and angst-filled voters have turned in desperation to right-wing populists. His prediction? 'In well-established democracies like the United States, democratic governance will continue its inexorable decline and will eventually fail.'"

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02.09.2019

"Trump administration wants to 'reset' relations with EU"

https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-administration-wants-to-reset-relations-with-eu/

Die US-Regierung strebe einen Neustart in den Beziehungen zur EU an, berichtet David M. Herszenhorn anlässlich des Besuchs von Außenminister Pompeo in Brüssel. "Pompeo, Trump's chief diplomat, arrives in Brussels Monday for a quick two-day visit, in which he will meet European Parliament President David Sassoli and the EU's incoming leadership team: Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen, Council President-elect Charles Michel, and the nominee for foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell. But in a sign of how strained relations have become between Washington and Brussels over an array of issues, including Iran, trade and climate change, Pompeo will not see any of the EU leaders currently in office."

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26.08.2019

"'Sorry, it’s the way I negotiate': Trump confounds the world at wild G-7"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/26/donald-trump-g7-summit-confounds-1475891

Gabby Orr berichtet, dass US-Präsident Trump beim G7-Gipfel in Biarritz mit seiner eigenwilligen Verhandlungstaktik für Verwirrung gesorgt habe. "It was typical Trump on display on the world stage, refusing to be boxed in by anyone on anything. The president’s meandering statements and conflicting remarks left aides and allies alike guessing at his intended course of action — and his critics reviving questions about his fitness for office. 'Sorry, it’s the way I negotiate,' Trump shot back at a reporter during Monday’s press conference when questioned about whether there’s an actual strategy behind his constant back-and-forth on his positions regarding trade with China. 'It has done very well for me over the years,' Trump said. 'It’s doing even better for the country.'"

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22.08.2019

"Trump’s Greenland Gambit Might Be Crazy — But It Could Also Be the Future"

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/22/trumps-greenland-gambit-could-foreshadow-a-new-era-of-
land-acquisitionbut-not-for-the-reason-he-thinks-227856

Joshua Keating betrachtet das Interesse des US-Präsidenten an einem Erwerb Grönlands als wahrscheinlich unbeabsichtigte Reaktion auf den Klimawandel. Andere Regierungen könnten sich bald gezwungen sehen, ebenfalls nach neuen Landmassen Ausschau zu halten. "Trump probably doesn’t realize it, but he’s not the first president in recent years to look at the coming impact of climate change and decide to buy land. And with dislocated populations and scarcer resources looming on the horizon, he might not be the last. (...) just because Trump’s Greenland purchase is a nonstarter, doesn’t mean our notions of territorial control won’t get a little more fluid in the future, particularly as climate change physically reshapes the planet. Perhaps some countries will be forced to pick up and move."

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18.08.2019

"'People don’t want to be stupid twice': Foreign diplomats brace for Trump 2020 win"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/18/foreign-diplomats-donald-trump-2020-1459069

Ausländische Diplomaten in den USA bereiten sich Nahal Toosi zufolge auf eine Wiederwahl von US-Präsident Trump im nächsten Jahr vor. "Foreign diplomats are still feeling burned after assuming Donald Trump would lose in 2016 — and they don’t want to be fooled again. So many of them are quietly preparing for and predicting a Trump victory in 2020. Some are even trying to game out who will be on the president’s team in a second term. The belief that Trump will win reelection — gleaned from conversations with around 20 foreign diplomats, international officials and analysts who deal with them — appears widespread. (...) There’s no known scientific survey on the topic — few foreign officials would participate in one given diplomatic norms that preclude them from commenting on another country's internal politics. But none who talked to POLITICO was willing to say Trump will lose. Instead, they pointed to three key advantages for Trump: He’s the incumbent, the U.S. economy is strong and the Democrats have no definitive front-runner to challenge him."

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13.08.2019

"Trump aside, Washington grows alarmed over Hong Kong unrest"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/13/donald-trump-hong-kong-protests-1460623

In Washington mehren sich Politico zufolge die Stimmen, die China wegen des harten Vorgehens gegen Protestierende in Hong Kong offen verurteilen. US-Präsident Trump verfolge die Entwicklung in Hong Kong dagegen mit ungewohnter Zurückhaltung. "Top American lawmakers (...) are increasingly speaking out against Beijing, underscoring the growing — and bipartisan — anti-Chinese sentiment in the U.S. capital. On Tuesday, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy signaled his support for the protesters. (...) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi last week promised to push forward legislation that would penalize Chinese officials who infringe on Hong Kong’s autonomy. In her statement, the California Democrat praised the 'courage' of the protesters standing up to 'a cowardly government that refuses to respect the rule of law.' (...) To date, Trump has said relatively little on the Hong Kong crisis, sparking criticism that he is more worried about getting a trade deal with China than supporting movements for democracy. Still, his laconic approach hasn’t stopped China from linking the U.S. to the chaos. China’s Foreign Ministry on Monday once again leveled accusations that American officials are encouraging the 'rabble-rousers in Hong Kong.' Beijing had earlier claimed that the 'black hand' of the CIA was involved."

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12.08.2019

"The U.S. or China? Europe Needs to Pick a Side"

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/12/us-china-europe-relations-227614

Andrea Kendall-Taylor und Rachel Rizzo vom Center for a New American Security werfen Europa in der aktuellen Debatte über die Hong-Kong-Proteste vor, erneut eine klare Stellungnahme gegenüber China zu verweigern. In Europa gebe es bisher keinen Konsens über die Frage, ob bzw. welche Bedrohung Peking für die westlichen Demokratien darstellt. "Europe’s reluctance to side with the United States puts liberal democracy in danger. The closer Europe gets to China, the less opposition China will face in its efforts to re-shape norms — on issues like data and privacy, Internet freedom, AI and governance. To uphold their shared values, both the United States and Europe need to collectively push back against China’s unfair trade and investment practices, its blatant human rights abuses, and the anti-democratic norms and practices it seeks to spread. A Europe that refuses to pick sides is exactly what Beijing seeks to achieve. (...) What would it look like for Europe to get off the fence? 5G is at the forefront of the debate. Europe should follow Japan, Australia and New Zealand’s example and ban high-risk vendors like Huawei from building its 5G infrastructure. (...) Europe could also work with the United States to develop a joint response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which serves as a conduit for China’s influence and tactics. (...) the message coming from Europe continues to convey an aversion to choosing between the United States and China. Europe must realize where its long-term interests lie, and not let this administration or the allure of economic gains prevent the right choice. The health of liberal democracy will depend on it."

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04.08.2019

"What Both Sides Don't Get About American Gun Culture"

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/04/mass-shooting-gun-culture-227502

Die beiden Politikwissenschaftler Austin Sarat und Jonathan Obert werfen sowohl Demokraten als auch Republikanern ein grundsätzliches Missverständnis der Waffenkultur in den USA vor. Die Pattsituation in der Waffendebatte könne nur überwunden werden, wenn Gewehre nicht nur als neutrale "Werkzeuge", sondern auch als Ausdruck einer politischen Identität betrachtet werden. "Gun owners' politics don't generally fall into lockstep with the NRA — but guns themselves are woven into people's lives in ways that go far beyond a tool. This suggests that the path to gun law reform won’t be as simple as liberals might hope or conservatives might fear. (...) As we mourn the victims in El Paso and Dayton and demand that the perpetrators be brought to justice, America’s political leaders, especially those who seek more stringent regulation, must recognize that guns are, for many of those who own them, something more than mere instruments of deadly force. They express and change the way people understand their own political identities and the powers they have as citizens. (...) gun owners need assurance that liberal gun reform advocates will not march down a slippery slope from red-flag laws, regulating semi-automatic weapons and large capacity magazines and closing the gun-show loophole to intrusive regulations that start to break down a culture that millions of people value greatly".

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29.07.2019

"Germany wary of Macron’s space force"

http://https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-wary-emmanuel-macron-space-force/

In Deutschland werden die französischen Pläne zur Bildung eines militärischen Weltraum-Kommandos Josh Posaner zufolge mit Nervosität beobachtet. "(...) the French president's agenda, unveiled in the midst of France's biggest national celebration, sits uneasily with Germany's preference for a multilateral approach to military and defense issues. 'We need a robust answer to the challenges in space but I see this as a job for the European Space Agency and the EU,' Thomas Jarzombek, the German government’s coordinator on aerospace and a lawmaker in the Bundestag, told POLITICO. (...) For decades, France has been more interested in a high level of military autonomy than Germany. (...) Germany, due to its history, has been much more wary of foreign military missions and prefers to operate within established organizations such as NATO. In the EU's nascent defense cooperation projects, Berlin has pushed to have as many member countries take part as possible while France has favored moving more quickly, with a smaller number of countries participating if necessary. The contrasting approaches are now surfacing in space policy, as NATO prepares to formally designate space as a new domain of warfare at a summit in December."

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20.07.2019

"Democrats want to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal. It’s not that simple."

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/20/iran-nuclear-deal-democrats-1424113

Die demokratischen Präsidentschaftskandidaten haben angekündigt, den Austritt der USA aus dem internationalen Atomabkommen mit dem Iran im Falle eines Wahlsiegs im nächsten Jahr rückgängig zu machen. Nahal Toosi macht darauf aufmerksam, dass dies aufgrund politischer und logistischer Hürden keineswegs einfach wäre. "By the time Inauguration Day rolls around in 2021, there might not even be a deal left — it has been hanging on by a thread since President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out last year. Even if it still exists, sections of the 2015 agreement are set to expire in the coming years, Trump’s punishing sanctions on Iran will be hard to fully unwind, Iran has elections that could put more anti-deal hard-liners in power and Tehran has already threatened to unwind itself from the deal in the months ahead. Then, there’s the possibility that Iran and the U.S. could be in a full-blown military conflict. (...) For now, as they compete against each other for their party's nomination, promising a return to the deal is a politically safe space for Democrats in part because of Obama’s continued popularity, one Democratic operative said. 'The Iran deal is popular with Democrats for the very reason that Donald Trump left it,' the operative said. 'It was negotiated by Barack Obama.'"

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16.07.2019

"Trump’s new EU foil: Another ‘strong female German leader’"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/16/trump-european-union-germany-1417976

Mit der neuen EU-Kommissionspräsidentin Ursula von der Leyen werde sich US-Präsident Trump einer weiteren "starken weiblichen deutschen Führungspersönlichkeit" gegenübersehen, meint Nahal Toosi. Einige Experten erwarten allerdings, dass von der Leyen sich mit Trump gut verstehen wird: "Von der Leyen has many fans in the defense establishment on both sides of the Atlantic, some of whom say she was always frank about what could be accomplished. Several noted that von der Leyen has lived in the U.S. before and is fluent in English — one of several languages she speaks — which has helped her navigate Washington. 'She’s pragmatic, she’s realistic, she’s a hard worker and she’s tough,' said Rachel Ellehuus, who served as a top aide to former Trump administration Defense Secretary James Mattis. 'She never over-promised and under-delivered.' A NATO official, singing similar praises, also downplayed concerns about von der Leyen’s ability to deal with Trump, saying her 'panache' will win him over. (...) Von der Leyen’s defenders note that the next top EU leader does have some nuanced positions that might align her with Trump in key areas. For instance, even as she is open to more internal European defense cooperation, she has pushed back on the French call for an 'EU army,' a concept Trump loathes. She has also said greater European defense cooperation should not compete with NATO — a nod to the ongoing American role in supporting European defense. (...) Von der Leyen has also sounded tough notes on China, which Trump would appreciate, but also on Russia, a loaded subject for Trump."

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05.07.2019

"How Fake News Could Lead to Real War"

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/07/05/fake-news-real-war-227272

Daniel Benjamin und Steven Simon, die beide für frühere US-Regierungen als Antiterror-Experten tätig waren, weisen auf die möglichen Konsequenzen von Falschmeldungen in internationalen Konflikten hin. Die "Fake-News-Epidemie" könne nicht nur Kriege auslösen, sondern auch notwendige Reaktionen auf tatsächliche Vorfälle gefährlich verzögern. "Sure, fake news has been a feature of international relations for a long time, but it’s different now: Advancing technology that can fabricate convincing images and videos combined with the chronic, exuberant dishonesty of the commander in chief and his minions have meant that no one can feel confident in assessing life-or-death choices in foreign policy crisis. (...) The scope for manipulation is enormous. One can easily imagine the havoc caused by falsified video that depicts foreign Iranian officials collaborating with terrorists to target the U.S. Or by something as simple as invented news reports about Iranian or North Korean military plans for preemptive strikes on any number of targets. (...) The strategic order is in serious danger as well. Trump’s deliberate, programmatic subversion of the public trust in national security institutions, especially the intelligence community, has undermined confidence in the accessibility of truth itself and has crucial implications for our security. The more our leaders in the White House and Congress dedicate themselves to dismantling this trust, the more we will be hostage to technologies that no one knows how to control."

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30.06.2019

"How Trump’s 'weaponized' use of foreign aid is backfiring"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/30/trump-foriegn-aid-1390417

In der Venezuela-Krise habe die US-Regierung die humanitäre Unterstützung der Bevölkerung durch US-Hilfsorganisationen gezielt eingesetzt, um den Druck auf die Regierung in Caracas zu erhöhen, schreibt Nahal Toosi. Einige Hilfsorganisationen hätten nun darum gebeten, die vorgeschriebene US-Markierung ihrer Lieferungen zu entfernen. "President Donald Trump has so closely linked U.S. humanitarian assistance to his attempt to oust Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro — even placing goods along the country’s border as an incentive for Venezuelans to revolt — that some groups are citing security concerns and asking U.S. officials if they can strip legally required U.S. branding from aid sent to Venezuela, three aid officials told POLITICO. Some organizations are looking at other options, such as seeing if the U.S. funding can be masked by routing it through the United Nations, or at ways to diversify their funding sources so that they can use more non-American aid to help Venezuelans, various aid experts said. The situation reflects broader fears that Trump’s unusually politicized approach to handing out U.S. aid worldwide is backfiring, tarnishing America’s brand and possibly risking the lives of people from Latin America to the Palestinian territories."

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30.06.2019

"Russia beating U.S. in race for global influence, Pentagon study says"

http://https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/30/pentagon-russia-influence-putin-trump-1535243

Einer neuen Pentagon-Studie zufolge ist Russland derzeit dabei, die USA im "Wettrennen" um globalen Einfluss zu schlagen. "The U.S. is ill-equipped to counter the increasingly brazen political warfare Russia is waging to undermine democracies, the Pentagon and independent strategists warn in a detailed assessment that happens to echo much bipartisan criticism of President Donald Trump's approach to Moscow. The more than 150-page white paper, prepared for the Joint Chiefs of Staff and shared with POLITICO, says the U.S. is still underestimating the scope of Russia's aggression, which includes the use of propaganda and disinformation to sway public opinion across Europe, Central Asia, Africa and Latin America. The study also points to the dangers of a growing alignment between Russia and China, which share a fear of the United States' international alliances and an affinity for 'authoritarian stability.'"

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24.06.2019

"AI experts call to curb mass surveillance"

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-experts-want-curtailing-of-ai-enabled-mass-monitoring-of-citizens/

Ein hochrangiges Expertengremium der EU hat vor dem Einsatz neuer KI-Technologien zur Massenüberwachung gewarnt und eine strenge Regulierung entsprechender Anwendungen gefordert. "An expert panel is set to present to the bloc’s leaders a list of 33 recommendations on how to move forward on AI governance Wednesday, including a stark warning against the use of AI to control and monitor citizens. In a 48-page final draft of the document, obtained by POLITICO, the experts urge policymakers to define “red lines” for high-risk AI applications — such as systems to mass monitor individuals or rank them according to their behavior — and discuss outlawing some controversial technology. 'Ban AI-enabled mass-scale scoring of individuals,' the expert group demands, adding that there needs to be 'very clear and strict rules for surveillance for national security purposes and other purposes claimed to be in the public or national interest.'"

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22.06.2019

"The Real Reason Iran Has Been Provoking Trump"

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/06/22/trump-iran-policy-227207

Ray Takeyh vom Council on Foreign Relations ist davon überzeugt, dass der Iran grundsätzlich an neuen Verhandlungen mit den USA interessiert sei. Teheran wolle allerdings nicht aus einer Position der Schwäche verhandeln. "Before negotiating with the United States, Iran needs a narrative of success. And the events of the past few days, in which the Trump administration threatened and then backed off a military confrontation, have finally provided Tehran with a justification to enter talks with, in Iran’s telling, a chastened Washington. (...) It’s clear to me that the talks between United States and Iran are coming. And the challenge for the Trump administration is to hold fast to the Pompeo parameters. Ultimately, the legacy of Trump’s Iran policy will be whether the administration can sustain its hawkish policy and move forward with successful negotiations or whether it will join its predecessor in abandoning its own sensible red lines for sake of an agreement at any cost."

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14.06.2019

"The EU’s big Balkan botch-up"

https://www.politico.eu/article/north-macedonia-albania-european-union-enlargement-member-state-tusk-junc
ker/

Entgegen ursprünglicher Zusagen der EU werden Nord-Mazedonien und Albanien vorerst kein Angebot für den Beginn der Beitrittsverhandlungen bekommen. Andrew Gray und Jacopo Barigazzi führen dies auf eine grundsätzliche französische Skepsis und die bisher fehlende Zustimmung des deutschen Bundestages zurück. "Paris is the leading skeptic when it comes to enlarging the EU while Berlin can't make a decision because the German parliament has yet to take a view. The failure to reach agreement on inviting the two countries to begin talks has infuriated some other EU members and European Commission officials. They argue that delaying a decision undermines the bloc's credibility, puts the pro-EU governments of both countries in peril and risks boosting strategic rivals in the region such as Russia, China and Turkey. Opponents of starting talks cite the western Balkans' deep-seated problems with corruption, organized crime and poverty and its recent history of conflict. Some officials also say that populist parties in Western Europe would seize on any move to bring the two Balkan countries closer to the bloc to whip up anti-EU feeling."

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05.06.2019

"Germany’s military maneuvers"

https://www.politico.eu/article/germanys-military-maneuvers/?fbclid=IwAR3O6EOskF8Yy2NMlQv52joDzVxbMsHzUNe
hAOoYcngmhf81PDPFHPZOH3A

In der Bundesregierung gibt es John Vinocur zufolge die ernsthafte Erwägung, sich den USA und Frankreich anzuschließen und ein Kriegsschiff in die Meerenge zwischen China und Taiwan zu schicken, um sich dortigen chinesischen Gebietsansprüchen entgegenzustellen. "If Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government actually goes ahead, it will be a remarkable revision of its we-keep-out-of-conflict reflexes. Germany will be openly backing its allies in a strategy certain to be found provocative by the country’s enforcers of non-combatant passivity. (...) A German official informed me of the Taiwan Strait plan last month. Last week, a second German official, at my request, confirmed its discussion by the defense ministry. No firm decision was expected before the end of the summer. (...) Why would Germany get involved? Some elements in Merkel’s government see a double opportunity, given Berlin’s lousy relations with U.S. President Donald Trump and wide disrespect elsewhere for its hide-under-the-bed routine. (...) launching a naval in-your-face operation off the coast of Taiwan would constitute a groundbreaking but unfamiliar act of valor. Admirably, there are German officials who want to combat the notion that the country is an irresponsible and non-committal ally. More power to them. The place to do that is the international waters of the Taiwan Strait. Now, the German navy needs to get that far."

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