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05.04.2017

"Trump’s 'red line' reversal hints at Syria shift"

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/trump-syria-red-line-236933

US-Präsident Trump habe Syriens Präsident Assad für den Chemiewaffeneinsatz in Syrien verantwortlich gemacht und damit einen Kurswechsel in seiner Syrienpolitik angedeutet, berichtet Michael Crowley. "Asked whether the attack violated a 'red line' for him, Trump said that it 'crosses many, many lines, beyond a red line.' Trump would not specify what kind of response he would deliver to Syria’s government. 'You will see. They will have a message. You will see what the message is,' he said. But after calling the attack 'an affront to humanity,' Trump suggested he was reconsidering his view that the United States should not work to remove Assad from power. 'My attitude towards Syria and Assad has changed very much,' he said. (...) in a sign that Trump’s comments were not unscripted freelancing, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley urged the U.N. Security Council earlier on Wednesday to take strong action against the Assad regime."

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03.04.2017

"How Russia Became the Jihadists’ No. 1 Target"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/russia-jihadists-number-one-target-214977

Colin P. Clarke fürchtet, dass der Anschlag von St. Petersburg der Beginn einer neuen Terrorwelle in Russland sein könnte. Das Land sei dabei, die USA als größtes Ziel radikalislamischer Terrorgruppen abzulösen. "Russia is fast replacing the United States as the No. 1 enemy of Al Qaeda, the Islamic State and other Sunni jihadist groups motivated by violent and puritanical Salafist ideology. This shift is rooted in recent Russian actions in the Middle East — including its escalating intervention in Syria and its moves toward intervention in Libya with the recent deployment of special forces to an air base in Egypt — that have drawn the ire of militant Sunnis worldwide and elevated Russia as the jihadists’ top target. And if the Islamic State’s 'caliphate' in Syria collapses and foreign fighters, an estimated 2,400 of whom are from Russia, attempt to return home and fix their sights on the Kremlin, the situation could dramatically worsen for Moscow."

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28.03.2017

"How the Sanctions Are Helping Putin"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/how-the-sanctions-are-helping-putin-214963

In der Debatte über die westliche Sanktionspolitik gegenüber Russland wird nach Ansicht von Andrey Movchan zu oft übersehen, dass die Sanktionen Präsident Putin politisch gestärkt hätten. Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung Russlands sei vor allem von den Ölpreisen abhängig. Die Sanktionen hätten das russische BIP dagegen der Weltbank zufolge höchstens um ein halbes Prozent gesenkt. "Sanctions do make a big impact in one area — Russian domestic politics. The government-controlled media — which is most of it — blames Russia’s current economic decline on the United States and European Union. President Putin declared on Oct. 12, 2016, speaking at the VTB investment forum in Moscow: 'We often repeat that so-called sanctions do not have a significant influence on us. They do, and the major threat is the ban on technology transfer.' For Putin, the sanctions are useful in helping him alienate the public from any Western-backed opposition leaders or from those who still proclaim that the West is a model for Russia’s future development."

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13.03.2017

"The Man Who Wants to Unmake the West"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/trump-steve-bannon-destroy-eu-european-union-214889

Michael Crowley porträtiert den einflussreichen Berater von US-Präsident Trump, Steve Bannon, der sich zum Ziel gesetzt habe, das Projekt der europäischen Integration zu untergraben und damit die bisherige Allianz zwischen den USA und der EU zu beenden. "Bannon’s public remarks, and accounts from people who have spoken with him, make clear that he believes Brexit and Trump’s election are part of something bigger, a global political revolt that could restore what he calls lost 'sovereignty' on the continent. 'I think strong countries and strong nationalist movements in countries make strong neighbors,' Bannon told an audience of religious conservative activists at the Vatican in 2014. 'That is really the building blocks that built Western Europe and the United States, and I think it’s what can see us forward.' The notion that this could happen — and that it might be a good thing — is a whiplash-inducing reversal from decades of American foreign policy."

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07.03.2017

"Trump Takes on The Blob"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/trump-foreign-policy-elites-insiders-experts-international
-relations-214846

In Washington sei derzeit der Kampf des überparteilichen außenpolitischen Establishments ("The Blob") gegen US-Präsident Trump zu beobachten, schreibt M. Scott Mahaskey in seiner umfassenden Reportage für das Magazin Politico. "In just a few weeks as president, Trump managed — or threatened — to blow up many of The Blob’s most cherished beliefs about American power. In doing so, he finally united Democrats and many Republicans, hawks and doves, neocons and Obamians, in a frenzy of worry. Whether left or right, fierce advocates of 'soft power' or proponents of the 'bomb, bomb, bomb' school of international relations, most of the U.S. foreign policy establishment had spent the hours since noon on January 20 in alternating states of fear, rage, dismay, bewilderment and mental exhaustion. The old distinctions no longer seemed to matter as much; for the moment, at least, they were all The Blob now."

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01.03.2017

"Europe’s Libyan gamble"

http://www.politico.eu/article/europes-libyan-gamble-coast-guard-migration-refugees/

Die EU setze offenbar darauf, die Migration in Libyen durch eine Stärkung der libyschen Küstenwache zu kontrollieren, schreibt Karlos Zurutuza. Viele Experten hielten diese Strategie angesichts der politischen Lage in Libyen allerdings für aussichtslos. "Six years after the uprising that ended Muammar Gaddafi’s four-decade rule, Libya has no functioning national security services. Rather, a myriad of militias exert control across the country. Three governments vie for power in Libya: one in the East and two in the West. Every town has its own local council, its own armed forces and, in the case of the coastal cities, its own coast guard. (...) Operation Sophia’s public reports don’t outline how the EU training program coordinates with a Libyan fleet that lacks a central command. Neither does it address any measures taken to avoid infiltration by individuals linked to the smuggling business. (...) a leaked internal Operation Sophia report seen by POLITICO notes that 'migrant smuggling and human trafficking networks are well ingrained into local patterns of life, employing facilitators while paying off authorities and other militias.'"

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23.02.2017

"Beware the Blob: How Not to Oppose Donald Trump"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/02/the-wrong-way-to-oppose-donald-trump-214818

Robert Malley und Marc Lynch warnen die progressive Opposition in den USA, dass die kompromisslose Ablehnung aller außenpolitischen Entscheidungen von Präsident Trump dem Establishment in Washington in die Hände spielen und damit einen außenpolitischen Kurs unterstützen würde, der von vielen Gegnern Trumps eigentlich abgelehnt werde. "For those in search of a progressive alternative, the risk is that opposition to Trump's unconventionality will morph into embrace of what President Obama referred to as the 'Washington playbook' and Ben Rhodes, his deputy national security adviser, called the 'Blob' — shorthand for the foreign policy elite that for decades, so the argument goes, generated and jealously guarded ruling dogmas regarding when to use force, where to project power and how to spread influence, be it under the guise of liberal interventionism or neoconservatism. It is one thing, for example, to object to Trump’s dalliance with Vladimir Putin or his insensitivity to Syria’s carnage. It is something else entirely to reject out of hand any cooperation with Moscow to solve the Syrian crisis or to advocate direct U.S. military involvement in that civil war."

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15.02.2017

"NATO survival will depend on Germany"

http://www.politico.eu/article/nato-survival-will-depend-on-germany/

Die Zukunft der NATO werde entscheidend von einer spürbaren Erhöhung der Militärausgaben Deutschlands abhängen, meint Fabrice Pothier, früherer Chef des Nato-Planungsstabes. "With Europe’s largest GDP and by far its strongest economy, Germany is the swing state in European defense. If Berlin commits to spending the recommended 2 percent of GDP on defense, it would add $30 billion of defense spending in Europe — a large share of the $100 billion surplus that would be generated if all European members and Canada met their targets. The move would significantly boost European defense. On the flipside, marginal increases from Berlin — along the lines of what it has done since 2014 — would keep European defense spending stuck between 1.2 and 1.3 percent of GDP, an embarrassingly low average considering Europe’s share of global GDP is larger than the Americans’."

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12.02.2017

"Why Trump’s Love Affair With Netanyahu Won’t Last"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/02/donald-trump-netanyahu-israel-214769

Aaron David Miller ist davon überzeugt, dass die gegenwärtige "Liebesaffäre" zwischen US-Präsident Trump und Israels Premierminister Netanjahu nicht von Dauer sein wird. Dies läge vor allem an den Realitäten des Nahostkonflikts, die bislang jeden US-Präsidenten eingeholt hätten. Auch die innenpolitische Dynamik in Israel werde eine große Rolle spielen. "The odds that the right-wing elements of the current Israeli government might push to do something that will annoy and anger even a solidly pro-Israeli Trump administration are quite high. For example, Bennett has advocated annexing settlement blocs and uninhabited parts of the West Bank under Israel’s control. In fact, Trump’s seeming friendliness has put Netanyahu in a tough position by removing a compelling talking point for restraining the Israeli right. But there’s a problem for Trump here, too: If forced to choose between peace with the United States and peace within his ruling coalition over some crisis provoked by the right wing, it’s clear which way Netanyahu will go. Remaining prime minister is his prime directive."

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01.02.2017

"Can Jim Mattis Fix Asia?"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/02/james-mattis-asia-trip-214723

Michael Auslin hofft, dass es US-Verteidigungsminister James Mattis während dessen erster Asienreise gelingen wird, die Äußerungen Präsident Trumps zu China als Stabilitätspolitik zu vermitteln. Viele Verbündete der USA in Asien wünschten sich zwar eine größere Bestimmtheit in der US-Politik, allerdings keine offene Konfrontation zwischen den beiden Supermächten. "Trump and his advisers appear to believe that halting any further shift in power away from the United States is their highest priority in Asia. Whether intimating a trade war or musing about scrapping the One China policy, the president is assuming that Beijing knows it has more to lose than America does by further confrontation, and therefore will be the first to blink. It is a risky bet. (...) Mattis must deliver a carefully calibrated message of reassurance, stressing that the United States remains committed above all to stability in Asia, and not just in seeing Beijing taken down a peg. Showing a firmness that many in Asia believe was lacking during the Obama years will be welcomed by our allies and others in Asia, but only if they are confident that it will lead to more productive relations, not an unwanted clash between the world’s two largest powers."

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24.01.2017

"The Arab Spring is far from over"

http://www.politico.eu/article/arab-spring-not-over-repercussions-for-middle-east-region-unrest/

Koert Debeuf glaubt, dass die politischen Umwälzungen des Arabischen Frühlings noch lange nicht beendet seien. Die politischen, wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Ursachen der möglicherweise "epochalen Revolution" träten heute eher noch stärker zu Tage. "If that is true, today’s depressing situation is not the end; it’s just one of the stages the region is going through on its way to a better future. That, at least, is one of the lessons we could learn from history. (...) The French Revolution didn’t stop when Napoleon took power in 1799. It took 80 years and 12 constitutions before France became a stable democracy in 1870. There are reasons to believe the Arab World is going through a similar revolutionary evolution."

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22.01.2017

"America, You Look Like an Arab Country Right Now"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/america-you-look-like-an-arab-country-right-now-214678

Der libanesisch-britische Satiriker Karl Sharro fühlt sich durch die politischen Prozesse in den USA seit den Präsidentschaftswahlen an die Situation in vielen arabischen Ländern erinnert. In seinem imaginären Brief der "Arabischen Welt" an die USA schreibt er: "From fiery inauguration protests and bitter disputes about crowd size, to the intelligence service’s forays into politics and the rise of right-wing extremists, it appears that you are traveling very much in our direction—and at the same time, like us, becoming a curiosity for foreign correspondents trying to explain what’s happening in your region to the world. You might be distraught about where you are headed, but we aren’t! Perhaps this will be an opportunity to put our differences aside and recognize how similar we are."

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20.01.2017

"Donald Trump leaves Europe in the cold"

http://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-leaves-europe-in-the-cold-in-inauguration/

In Europa habe der neue US-Präsident Donald Trump mit seiner Rede zur Amtseinführung die Befürchtungen hinsichtlich der Zukunft des transatlantischen Bündnisses weiter verstärkt, schreibt Matthew Karnitschnig. Trump habe in seiner Rede erneut das Ausmaß der amerikanischen Finanzierung bestehender Sicherheitsbündnisse der USA kritisiert. "(...) the inaugural speech raised fresh doubts about that commitment. Instead of trying to assuage allies’ concerns, Trump poured more oil on the fire. 'We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power,' he said. 'From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land, from this day forward, it’s going to be only America first. America first.' In his roughly 15-minute-long speech, Trump mentioned neither NATO, nor the European Union, nor Europe. His only reference to allies came in passing: 'We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones,' he said. (...) Europe’s biggest fear is that Trump plans to pursue a deal with Russia that could leave it in the cold. One theory is that Trump sees the U.S.’s foreign policy priorities in challenging China and destroying the so-called Islamic State."

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11.01.2017

"Ukrainian efforts to sabotage Trump backfire"

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/ukraine-sabotage-trump-backfire-233446

Die ukrainische Regierung habe sich im US-Wahlkampf offen an die Seite Hillary Clintons gestellt und versucht, Donald Trump als Kandidaten mit zum Teil undiplomatischen Methoden zu unterminieren, berichten Kenneth P. Vogel und David Stern in diesem exklusiv recherchierten Politico-Beitrag. "Donald Trump wasn’t the only presidential candidate whose campaign was boosted by officials of a former Soviet bloc country. Ukrainian government officials tried to help Hillary Clinton and undermine Trump by publicly questioning his fitness for office. They also disseminated documents implicating a top Trump aide in corruption and suggested they were investigating the matter, only to back away after the election. And they helped Clinton’s allies research damaging information on Trump and his advisers, a Politico investigation found. (...) 'None of the Ukrainians have any access to Trump — they are all desperate to get it, and are willing to pay big for it,' said one American consultant whose company recently met in Washington with Yuriy Boyko, a former vice prime minister under Yanukovych."

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07.01.2017

"Why It Pays to Be the World’s Policeman — Literally"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/why-it-pays-to-be-the-worlds-policemanliterally-214605

Thanassis Cambanis erinnert den kommenden US-Präsidenten Trump daran, dass sich die Rolle des globalen Polizisten für die USA immer auch wirtschaftlich und finanziell ausgezahlt habe. "Rather than a nation rooked by crafty foreigners, it makes more sense to see America at the center of a web of productive investments. Here’s how it works: First, most of America’s defense spending functions as a massive, job creating subsidy for the U.S. defense industry. (...) Second, America’s steering role in numerous regions - NATO, Latin America, and the Arabian peninsula - gives it leverage to call the shots on matters of great important to American security and the bottom line. (...) Third, and most importantly, if you listen the biggest critics of the new world order, what you'll hear is that it’s rigged – in America’s favor. America’s 'global cop' role means that shipping lanes, free trade agreements, oil exploration deals, ad hoc military coalitions, and so on are maintained to the benefit of the U.S. government or U.S. corporations. The truth is that America puts its thumb on the scale to tilt the world’s not-entirely free markets to America’s benefit. (...) Perhaps that’s why analysts in the business of predicting world affairs don’t think Trump is going to abandon America’s 'world policeman' portfolio once he looks at the bottom line."

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29.12.2016

"Congress leaves Trump with unlimited war powers"

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/congress-trump-military-force-232815

Dem US-Kongress sei es erneut nicht gelungen, die Militärkampagne der USA gegen den "Islamischen Staat" formell zu autorisieren, berichtet Austin Wright. Dieser Schritt wäre wichtig gewesen, um die Machtfülle der Exekutive in Kriegsfragen einzudämmen. Nun habe auch der kommende US-Präsident Trump nahezu unbegrenzte Kompetenzen für seinen angekündigten Krieg gegen den radikalen Islam. "Some Democrats are starting to lay the groundwork for a new push next year for a war resolution, but the chances of passage remain low. Without a new resolution, Trump is likely to have almost unlimited powers as he takes over U.S. military involvement in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan and potentially ratchets up ongoing efforts to hunt down and kill suspected terrorists the world over."

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12.12.2016

"Dutch aim to stop military and financial aid to Ukraine"

http://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-aim-to-stop-military-and-financial-aid-to-ukraine/

Niederländische Wähler haben sich im vergangenen April in einem Referendum mit deutlicher Mehrheit gegen das EU-Abkommen mit der Ukraine ausgesprochen. Die niederländische Regierung sucht Jacopo Barigazzi zufolge nun nach Wegen, diese Entscheidung politisch umzusetzen. "(...) as a result of the referendum, the Rutte government wants to signal it has red lines on Ukraine. In a recent interview, Rutte threatened to scupper the deal entirely unless he receives legally binding guarantees from EU leaders that EU-Ukraine Association Agreement will not automatically lead to the country becoming an EU member. (...) Another point EU leaders will have to come to an agreement on is free movement. The agreement 'does not grant to Ukrainian nationals or Union citizens, respectively, the right to reside and work freely within the territory of the member states or Ukraine,' states the Dutch declaration draft, and while it reiterates support for the reform process in Ukraine, it 'does not require additional financial support by the member states to Ukraine.'"

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03.12.2016

"Why Trump’s Foreign Policy Might Prove Less Radical Than You Think"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/donald-trump-foreign-policy-radical-mistakes-214496

Philip Gordon meint, dass man von Donald Trump keine radikale außenpolitische "Revolution", sondern eine Reihe von eher zusammenhanglosen Fehltritten erwarten sollte. "While Trump will be by far the most ill-informed, inexperienced and morally compromised man ever to assume the presidency, his foreign policy may not prove to be as radical as many seem to assume. The risk with Trump is less that he will pursue a grand strategy that causes problems than that he will have no coherent strategy at all. (...) Trump is less likely than many seem to believe to take some of the steps leaders and publics around the world are most afraid of. For example, will he really make dismantling the nuclear deal with Iran his 'number-one priority' once he realizes — and is told by Mattis and all our key allies — that doing so will isolate the United States, give Iran a pretext to resume its nuclear activities, and force the United States to contemplate military strikes that could lead to another costly American entanglement in the Middle East? Or will he just wind down Obama’s active efforts to bolster the deal, sanction some more companies for non-nuclear transgressions, step-up measures to contain Iran, and claim that his tough new policy has led Iran to abide by his version of a 'better deal'?"

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31.10.2016

"Memo to the Next President: Avoid the 'Vision Thing' in the Mideast"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/memo-to-the-next-president-avoid-the-vision-thing-in-the-m
ideast-214401

Die beiden langjährigen Mitarbeiter des US-Außenministeriums Aaron David Miller und Richard Sokolsky empfehlen der nächsten US-Administration, in der Nahostpolitik auf große Versprechen und ambitionierte Ziele zu verzichten. "For decades now America has been trapped in a Middle East it cannot transform nor leave, and where bold ambitions and transformational visions more often than not go to die. That calls for a cruel and unforgiving assessment of U.S. interests and the smart application of American power and leadership, mixed with a healthy dose of prudence and caution, to protect them. And it mandates avoidance of discretionary enterprises that aren’t connected directly with vital U.S. interests. We are neither declinists nor isolationists. But based on more than a half century of combined experience working on Middle Eastern issues in the Department of State, here is our list of ten things the next administration should not do or say if it is to have any chance of navigating its way out of the landmines, traps, hopeless causes, and impossible missions that dot the region."

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27.09.2016

"Insiders: Hillary won"

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/debate-caucus-trump-clinton-228757

Die meisten Experten in den USA seien der Ansicht, dass Hillary Clinton das erste TV-Duell der beiden Präsidentschaftskandidaten klar gewonnen habe, berichtet Steven Shepard. Dies treffe auch für viele Republikaner zu, die Donald Trump als US-Präsident ablehnen. Einige republikanische Insider glaubten dagegen, dass sich Trump in der Debatte ebenfalls gut präsentiert habe. "(...) there was a significant share of Republicans who thought Trump won — most of whom said Trump’s outside appeal could be the most memorable aspect of the debate. 'Hillary Clinton sounded like every politician has sounded for the last half century. Donald Trump did not,' said an Ohio Republican. 'This year that may just be enough.' 'Neither candidate earned a single undecided vote,' a Nevada Republican added. 'Clinton supporters will think she won. Trump supporters will think he won. Trump gets the nod because he did not completely implode.'"

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17.09.2016

"How Mosul’s Liberation Could Lead to Another Iraqi Civil War"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/mosul-liberation-iraq-civil-war-214256

Die geplante Vertreibung des "Islamischen Staates" aus der Stadt Mosul im Norden Iraks könnte die anderen Konfliktlinien im Land hervortreten lassen und sogar einen neuen Bürgerkrieg auslösen, warnt Daniel L. Davis. "This is going to be a 'coalition' offensive — but the coalition isn’t one of different countries. Everyone involved is Iraqi, but they consist of the fractious, mutually mistrustful constituents — Kurdish Peshmerga, Shia militias, the mixed-sectarian bag that is the Iraqi army — of a country that could still easily fall into civil war again after ISIS is defeated. (...) From my interviews with senior government officials, military generals, regional experts, displaced persons from increasingly crowded refugee camps, it became clear to me that winning the fight for Mosul for the anti-ISIS side is hardly assured, and even if ISIS is eventually eradicated, the absence of a unifying enemy might release pent up animosities and hatreds among current allies. This could potentially unleash an even greater bloodbath in Iraq than that wrought by ISIS."

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12.09.2016

"Bulgaria caught between NATO and the Kremlin"

http://www.politico.eu/article/russia-bulgaria-presidential-election-rumen-radev-socialists-caught-betwee
n-nato-and-the-kremlin/

Der bald aus dem Amt scheidende bulgarische Präsident Rosen Plevneliev habe Russland in der Vergangenheit als Bedrohung eingestuft und damit einigen Widerspruch im eigenen Land ausgelöst, berichten Harry Cooper und Christian Oliver. Bei der anstehenden Präsidentschaftswahl könnte ein Nachfolger gewählt werden, der die Beziehungen zu Moskau wieder reparieren will. "Bulgaria’s impending presidential election is a tempting opportunity for Russia to try to haul a vulnerable eastern European country back into its strategic orbit. Rumen Radev — a daredevil MiG-29 jet pilot — is the candidate who has set alarm bells ringing over Sofia’s ties to Moscow. A loop-the-looping highlight at airshows, he is the pick of the opposition Socialists, who are desperate to repair damaged relations with the Kremlin in the vote on November 6."

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26.08.2016

"Obama’s legacy on Syria dealt another blow"

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/obama-syria-chemical-weapons-legacy-227460

Ein aktueller UN-Bericht stellt den vermeintlichen Sieg Barack Obamas in Frage, das syrische Regime dazu gebracht zu haben, seine Chemiewaffen zu vernichten, berichtet Sarah Weaton auf politico.com. "The U.N. report, released earlier this week, found that Syrian President Bashar Assad has used chlorine gas against civilians at least twice since 2013, violating the Chemical Weapons Convention, which he joined as part of the deal he struck that year. Still, the White House is giving no sign that Obama is willing to change his mind on military force or even establishing a no-fly zone. Instead, administration officials keep emphasizing the importance and historic nature of the 2013 agreement, while stressing its main focus was getting rid of Assad’s stockpiles of sarin, anyhow."

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23.08.2016

"Australia’s lesson in burkini politics"

http://www.politico.eu/article/australias-lesson-in-burkini-politics-muslim-immigrants-cronulla-beach-rio
ts-france-solution/

Die australische Position in der "Burkini-Debatte" stehe der französischen diametral entgegen, schreibt Zoya Sheftalovich auf politico.eu. "In Europe, the burkini is seen as a symbol of Muslim migrants’ failure to integrate into secular society. Here in Australia, where it was invented by Lebanese migrant Aheda Zanetti in 2004, the swimsuit tends to be seen as part of the solution. The outcry in France over the burkini — a swimsuit that covers a woman’s entire body except for the face, hands and feet — is the 'total opposite' of the response in Australia, Zanetti told POLITICO. 'Australians actually thought it was a fantastic idea,' she says."

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11.08.2016

"German intelligence warns of ISIL 'hit squads' among refugees"

http://www.politico.eu/article/german-intelligence-warns-of-is-hit-squads-among-refugees/

Manfred Hauser, Vizepräsident beim Bayerischen Verfassungsschutz, hat in einem Interview mit der BBC eingestanden, dass es unter den Flüchtlingen in Deutschland mit einiger Wahrscheinlichkeit Mordkommandos und Schläferzellen des "Islamischen Staates" gebe. "'We have to accept that we have hit squads and sleeper cells in Germany,' Manfred Hauser, the vice president of the Bavaria region’s intelligence gathering agency, BayLfV, told the Today program. 'We have substantial reports that among the refugees there are hit squads. There are hundreds of these reports, some from refugees themselves. We are still following up on these, and we haven’t investigated all of them fully,' said Hauser."

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25.07.2016

"Why Russia is top suspect in the DNC hack"

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/dnc-hack-russia-suspect-226159

Cory Bennett und Eric Geller fassen die bisherigen Erkenntnisse über den Fall der gehackten E-Mails der Parteiführung der US-Demokraten zusammen. "Since the hack was first revealed last month, a series of digital breadcrumbs has been traced back to Russian hackers possibly working on behalf of Moscow's intelligence apparatus. 'Faking the pattern that allows one to trace this back to Russians would be very hard,' said Scott Borg, director of the U.S. Cyber Consequences Unit, a nonprofit research institute. 'Concealing it would be doable, but faking the evidence would be very hard.' Still, Justin Harvey, chief security officer for Fidelis Cybersecurity, cautioned that the links between the hackers and the Russian government are not yet proved 'beyond a shadow of a doubt.'"

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15.07.2016

"Inside the Plan to Undo the Iran Nuclear Deal"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/iran-nuclear-deal-foreign-policy-barack-obama-hassan-rouha
ni-javad-zarif-israel-john-kerry-214052

Indira A.R. Lakshmanan berichtet über die Bemühungen der Gegner des internationalen Atomabkommens mit dem Iran, den Deal ein Jahr nach der Unterzeichnung doch noch zu Fall zu bringen. Es werde alles versucht, um dem Iran die versprochenen wirtschaftlichen Vorteile des Abkommens vorzuenthalten. "Though the motive is the same, the battlefront has changed. Last year’s arguments over centrifuges, uranium stockpiles and breakout time have given way to a disciplined push on the economic front, trying to prevent Iran’s regime from reaping the economic windfall that the easing of sanctions was expected to deliver. (...) 'Stigmatizing all business with Iran is the new sanction,' says Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian-American Council and an ardent champion of the agreement and of improved relations with Iran. So far, he says, efforts by the anti-deal camp are 'paper cuts,' but he worries that with every new obstruction, 'the foundation for the deal is weakening' and could be eroded."

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15.07.2016

"Terror on the Riviera"

http://www.politico.eu/article/palm-trees-and-jihad-how-the-french-riviera-became-terrorism-breeding-grou
nd-nice-attack-news/

Der offenbar psychisch kranke Attentäter von Nizza habe in einem Umfeld gelebt, in dem sich Armut, Verbrechen und Dschihadismus ausgebreitet hätten, berichtet Nicholas Vinocur. "According to French Interior Ministry data, the Alpes-Maritimes area that includes Nice and Cannes — better known for movie stars and megayachts — is one of France’s prime breeding grounds for jihadist ideology. One in ten French volunteers for Islamist groups in Syria and Iraq hail from the area, and authorities are currently keeping watch over more than 200 people suspected of terrorist ties. Two years ago, anti-terrorism investigators dismantled a cell based in the resort city of Cannes that was planning a major attack during Nice’s annual carnival."

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12.07.2016

"France’s mutating terror threat"

http://www.politico.eu/article/frances-mutating-terror-threat-islamic-state-terrorists-europe-euro-2016/

Der Chef des französischen Inlandsgeheimdienstes DGSI, Patrick Calvar, hat in einem Interview mit Le Figaro davor gewarnt, dass der "Islamische Staat" bald zu Terroranschlägen mit bewaffneten Kommando-Truppen und Autobomben übergehen könnte. Frankreich würde dann ein Bürgerkrieg drohen, so Calvar. "(...) for Calvar, ISIL is not relying solely on 'lone wolves' to attack France. The group, which has lost territory in Syria and Iraq, is still determined to carry out large-scale sophisticated attacks and has learned from its experiences during the November attacks in Paris last year, and the Brussels attacks in March. 'What happened in Belgium was a result of the fact that [the terrorists] were cornered and could not carry out multiple operations,' Le Figaro quoted Calvar as having said. 'But, once again, as soon as they will have sent bomb-makers to our territory, they will be able to avoid sacrificing their fighters while causing maximal damage.' (...) 'We are on the brink of a civil war,' Calvar was cited as having told the MPs, according to previously published excerpts of the same meeting. 'This confrontation, I think it’s going to happen,' he said. 'One or two more terrorist attacks, and it will start. It’s therefore our duty to anticipate and block any group that aims to set off fighting between communities.'"

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03.06.2016

"Trump and the World: What Could Actually Go Wrong"

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/06/2016-donald-trump-international-foreign-policy-global-risk
-security-guide-213936

US-Präsidentschaftskandidat Donald Trump wird von seinen politischen Gegnern oft als globales Sicherheitsrisiko charakterisiert. Ian Bremmer hat untersucht, welche der konkreten Vorwürfe tatsächlich Bestand hätten. "America First won’t strengthen America. It will alienate friends and embolden rivals. In the process, it will badly damage U.S. commercial interests. It will undermine the institutions that the U.S. and its allies created from the ashes of World War II and which continue to extend U.S. international influence into the future. It will cast grave doubt on what America stands for. A Trump foreign policy will undermine U.S. exceptionalism, the consensus-based conviction that America will fight for more than its self-interest and is therefore worthy of emulation. That idea has sustained plenty of damage in recent years. It will sustain more. But the biggest risk posed by a Donald Trump foreign policy is that he will destroy this worthy aspiration once and for all."

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