US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

International Crisis Group


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"Jean-Marie Guéhenno on security and the tectonic shifts in Asian geopolitics"

Die International Crisis Group hat einen Vortrag von Jean-Marie Guéhenno beim australischen Lowy Institute über die geopolitischen Entwicklungen in Asien als Audiobeitrag ins Netz gestellt. "Although the recent peaceful democratic transitions in Indonesia and Sri Lanka point to the very real progress towards more inclusive politics in Asia, the counter-currents in places like Thailand and Bangladesh show that the international community would be unwise to become complacent. The increasing power and reach of radical movements in the Middle East show how easily conflicts like Afghanistan, Pakistan and Ukraine can metastasise across vulnerable and excluded communities. The growing power and confidence of China and India is ushering a new era of geopolitical competition in Asia and the world, but they also bring new resources and new thinking to the fight for global and regional security."

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"Syria Calling: Radicalisation in Central Asia"

Auch die Länder Zentralasiens seien durch radikalisierte Rückkehrer aus dem syrischen Bürgerkrieg gefährdet, warnt die International Crisis Group in einem neuen Bericht. Die autoritären Regierungen in der Region könnten die Gefahr zur Rechtfertigung neuer Repressionsmaßnahmen gegen oppositionelle Bewegungen nutzen und das Problem damit noch verschärfen. "Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan form a brittle region, sandwiched between Russia and Afghanistan, Iran and China. Each suffers from poor governance, corruption and crime. (...) All five fail to deliver quality social services, particularly in rural areas. Their security services – underfunded, poorly trained and inclined to resort to harsh methods to compensate for a lack of resources and skills – are unable to deal with a challenge as intricate as radical Islam. Rather than promoting religious freedom while safeguarding secular constitutions and attempting to learn from European or Asian experiences in rehabilitating jihadis, the five fuel further radicalisation by using laws to curb religious growth and the police to conduct crackdowns."

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"Mali: Last Chance in Algiers"

Die International Crisis Group macht in einem neuen Bericht auf die erneute Gewalt im Norden Malis aufmerksam, die den im Mai beschlossenen Waffenstillstand gefährde. Algerien versuche derzeit, zwischen der Regierung und den bewaffneten Gruppen zu vermitteln. "As the last phase of negotiations opens on 20 November in a climate of distrust, much remains to be done. Any further stalemate in the discussions will give rise to prejudice in both parties. No one wants to rush the signing of an incomplete agreement. Mali’s international partners, who are the future political and financial guarantors of the deal, should not condone a flawed agreement. Failure would also jeopardise Algeria’s laudable efforts to stabilise the region. On the governmental front, the longer public administration remains absent from the north, the more difficult it will be to fully restore the state’s presence."

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"Turkey and the PKK: Saving the Peace Process"

Unterschiedliche Interessen im Kampf gegen den Islamischen Staat haben den türkisch-kurdischen Friedensprozess in den vergangenen Wochen gefährlich beschädigt. Die International Crisis Group formuliert in einem neuen Bericht mögliche Maßnahmen, die die Verhandlungen an diesem wichtigen Wendepunkt positiv beeinflussen könnten. "The peace process to end the 30-year-old insurgency of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) against Turkey’s government is at a turning point. It will either collapse as the sides squander years of work, or it will accelerate as they commit to real convergences. Both act as if they can still play for time – the government to win one more election, the PKK to further build up quasi-state structures in the country’s predominantly-Kurdish south east. But despite a worrying upsurge in hostilities, they currently face few insuperable obstacles at home and have two strong leaders who can still see the process through."

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"Resetting Pakistan’s Relations with Afghanistan"

Die International Crisis Group untersucht in einer neuen Studie, wie das gegenseitige Misstrauen in den bislang vor allem auf Sicherheitsfragen ausgerichteten Beziehungen zwischen Afghanistan und Pakistan abgebaut werden könnte. "While it will require considerable effort to end deep-seated animosity, both countries share close ethnic, linguistic, religious and economic ties. Longstanding Afghan migration to the territories that now compose Pakistan makes them an integral part of Pakistani society. Yet, military-devised interventionist policies, based on perceived national security interests, including support for Afghan, mainly Pashtun, proxies, have marred the relationship. The incoming Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai has offered to expand bilateral ties, providing Islamabad fresh opportunities to improve the relationship. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has responded positively, but the Pakistani military and civilian leadership’s preferences toward Kabul are diverging further as Afghanistan’s transition draws closer."

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"Iran and the P5+1: Getting to 'Yes'"

Die International Crisis Group analysiert in einer neuen Studie die Erfolgsaussichten der internationalen Atomverhandlungen mit dem Iran, die bis zum November verlängert wurden. "Despite the extra negotiating time, there is no guarantee the parties will be able to reach a compromise that permanently protects everyone’s core interests. Iran’s indigenous know-how could enable it to modify its program after international attention shifts away; the U.S. Congress could prevent the president from delivering on promised sanctions relief. But the alternatives – return to the sanctions versus centrifuges race or recourse to military force – are even less attractive. A focus on irreducible core interests rather than maximalist stances would represent not a fatal compromise but, perhaps, the key to unlocking these talks. With the costs of failure and the benefits of success so high, there is no room for error and no time to waste."

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"Iraq’s Jihadi Jack-in-the-Box"

Die International Crisis Group empfiehlt den USA und dem Iran in einer aktuellen Studie zum Konflikt im Irak militärische Zurückhaltung. "The jihadi surge is the tragic, violent outcome of steadily deteriorating political dynamics. Instead of a rash military intervention and unconditional support for the Iraqi government, pressure is needed to reverse sectarian polarisation and a disastrous record of governance. (...) Iran and the U.S. should avoid a precipitate military response. The deployment of Iranian troops, who would be seen as a Shiite-Persian occupation force in Sunni-Arab territory, would bolster the jihadis’ standing further. The U.S., instead of rushing to send advisers, special troops or air power, should lay out plainly what it is willing to do to help Iraq address the ISIL challenge militarily but base its help on the premise that Prime Minister Maliki’s government immediately implements overdue political reform."

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"Iran and the P5+1: Solving the Nuclear Rubik’s Cube"

Die International Crisis Group analysiert in ihrem neuen Bericht die Erfolgsaussichten der internationalen Atomverhandlungen mit dem Iran. Trotz der immer noch großen Interessensunterschiede gebe es Raum für eine diplomatische Einigung. "What is needed, rather, is a compromise that satisfies both sides’ irreducible, bottom-line requirements: for Iran a meaningful enrichment program, continued scientific advancement and tangible sanctions relief; and for the P5+1, a firewall between Iran’s civilian and potential military nuclear capabilities, airtight monitoring mechanisms and sufficient time and Iranian cooperation to establish trust in the exclusively peaceful nature of the country’s nuclear program. Such a solution would enable them to sell the deal at home and serve as a springboard for developing a different kind of relationship. This report presents a blueprint for achieving that agreement."

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"CrisisWatch - Interactive Map"

Auf dieser interaktiven und regelmäßig aktualisierten Karte der International Crisis Group können aktuelle sicherheitspolitische Krisen in aller Welt verfolgt werden.

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Hier finden Sie die Redaktion der Sicherheitspolitischen Presseschau.

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Europa, Asien, Afrika, Amerika und weltweite Phänomene und Institutionen. Die bpb bietet ein breites Angebot zu internationalen Themen.

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Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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