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Center for Strategic and International Studies



"Maritime Claims of the Indo-Pacific"


Die Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative des Center for Strategic and International Studies hat eine interaktive Karte mit den Territorialansprüchen der Anrainerstaaten im Indopazifik veröffentlicht. "Who’s Claiming What? Explore the maritime claims of nearly 40 countries across the Indo-Pacific. All claims are shown based on states’ domestic legislation, treaties, and submissions to international bodies. The map is an unbiased depiction of claims; it does not judge their legality or guess at future delimitations."

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"Are Sanctions Working in Venezuela?"


Moises Rendon hält die US-Sanktionen gegen Venezuela in seiner Kurzanalyse für das Center for Strategic and International Studies für ein geeignetes Mittel, um die Maduro-Regierung unter Druck zu setzen. Er empfiehlt eine Ausweitung der Strafmaßnahmen. "The first important step is to encourage multilateral adoption of currently targeted sanctions. Unilateral sanctions, even from the most powerful economy in the world, have limited results. In addition to incorporating allied neighbors Colombia and Brazil, the United States should take advantage of the Lima Group, which has recently taken a strong stance on Maduro’s crusade against democracy. (...) The United States and its allies must use sanctions deliberately as a tool to shut down Maduro’s criminal activities. (...) Another method could be the reallocation of assets recovered from sanctioned officials in the Venezuelan government and military. These assets could be forfeited to nongovernmental organizations helping the most deprived Venezuelans. (...) Sanctions can take time to have their intended effect and, even when successful, are not sufficient to dismember and rebuild a government. They are simply a tool for coercing good behavior. In order to help Venezuelans restore their democracy, sanctions are key to increasing pressure on the Maduro regime. But a focus on targeted sanctions is not enough. Having a feasible exit ramp for Maduro and his inner circle while having a compassionate effort at humanitarian assistance are crucial."

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"Losing by 'Winning': America's Wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria"


Anthony H. Cordesman stellt fest, dass die Trump-Administration die dritte US-Regierung in Folge sei, die in der Kriegsführung auf taktische Erfolge setze, ohne eine klare Strategie zu verfolgen. "Once again, a new Administration seems to have focused on the tactical level of conflict and called this a strategy but has failed to have any clear strategy for ending the fighting on favorable terms. More than that, the new Administration seems to have accepted the legacy of the previous Administration by largely abandoning the civil side of each war. It is dealing with major insurgencies and civil war as if they were limited terrorist movements. It has no clear civil-military strategy, plans for stability operations, or options to create the level of governance and development that could bring a lasting peace. It has no grand strategy and is fighting half a war."

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"The Crisis in Iran"


Anthony H. Cordesman spricht sich in seiner empirischen Analyse der Hintergründe der Proteste im Iran gegen weitgreifende Schlussfolgerungen aus. Einen baldigen Sturz des Regimes in Teheran hält er für unwahrscheinlich. "Iran has steadily improved its internal security and ability to repress its people since 2009, and no one should underestimate the ability and willingness of the Supreme Leader and Islamic Revolutionary Guard to use force against their people. There are good reason why parts of the Iranian population see Iran’s government as failed and repressive regime, but it is important for those outside Iran to understand that there are no reliable indicators as to how many people oppose the regime, why they oppose it, or how serious their opposition is. It is equally hard to know how many Iranians support the regime, what aspects of it they support, and how many simply 'go along to get along.' (...) The Iranian people are also deeply divided in many ways and have been for much of Iran’s modern history. Iran has long been divided between a more modern and largely urban educated minority and a more religious and conservative mix of rural and urban poor. As the Green Revolution showed, many Iranians want a more liberal, modern, and developing Iran. Many others, however, who have supported Khomeini’s revolution 'reforms,' believe in more conservative state, and see the West and Saudi Arabia as a threat."

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"Arrests in Saudi Arabia: Causes and Implications"


Jon B. Alterman vom Center for Strategic and International Studies schätzt die Erfolgsaussichten der Machtkonsolidierung von Kronprinz Mohammed bin Salman recht hoch ein. "There is a 75 percent chance that this will consolidate power behind the crown prince. After all, when he moved against his cousin, the previous crown prince, he won a pledge of allegiance relatively quietly and smoothly. Crown Prince Mohammed has substantial public support, and many Saudis feel that change is necessary and that he is the leading change agent. We should expect to see a broadly popular effort to root out corruption and confiscate wealth. Much as President Xi Jinping has done in China, the effort can build legitimacy and undermine opponents. Fines and confiscated wealth could also be steered toward state projects. (...) It is not unthinkable that a coalition against him will consolidate, but the window of opportunity to blunt the crown prince is closing. If this settles in his favor, there is not likely to be another chance."

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"Islam and the Patterns in Terrorism and Violent Extremism"


Das Center for Strategic and International Studies hat eine neue Studie ins Netz gestellt, in der der Zusammenhang zwischen dem islamischen Extremismus und dem Terrorismus analysiert wird. Anthony Cordesman erläutert in diesem Beitrag die zentralen Schussfolgerungen der Studie. "It is far too easy for analysts who are not Muslim to focus on the small part of the extremist threat that Muslim extremists pose to non-Muslims in the West and/or demonize one of the world's great religions, and to drift into some form of Islamophobia — blaming a faith for patterns of violence that are driven by a tiny fraction of the world's Muslims and by many other factors like population, failed governance, and weak economic development. It is equally easy to avoid analyzing the links between extremist violence and Islam in order to be politically correct or to avoid provoking Muslims and the governments of largely Muslim states. The end result is to ignore the reality that most extremist and terrorist violence does occur in largely Muslim states, although it overwhelmingly consists of attacks by Muslim extremists on fellow Muslims, and not some clash between civilizations."

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"'Taking our Fate into our own Hands': U.S.-German Relations in Merkel’s Fourth Term"


USA können nach Ansicht von Jeffrey Rathke drei Lehren aus dem Wahlsieg Angela Merkels ziehen: "For the United States, there are three main takeaways from Merkel’s fourth term: that the German chancellor does not seek the mantle of global leadership that many Western liberals wish she would don; that the Trump administration, like it or not, needs Germany’s help to achieve many of its highest priorities; and that rash moves by Washington, such as a unilateral withdrawal from or sabotage of the Iran nuclear agreement or the introduction of steel tariffs, could force Merkel to distance Germany from the U.S. administration and put the partnership with the United States’ most important European ally in deep jeopardy."

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"NATO and Russia in the Black Sea: A New Confrontation?"


Boris Toucas erläutert die Hintergründe der zunehmenden Präsenz von NATO-Truppen im Schwarzen Meer. Trotz der Spannungen sei eine Konfrontation mit russischen Truppen vor Ort eher unwahrscheinlich, so seine Erwartung. "As in the Baltics, the risk of a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia, although not to be entirely ruled out, remains low as conflict would come at a high price for both players with little prospect for a clear strategic benefit. The most immediate task at hand for NATO and Russia is to reduce the possibility of a military accident, and in a positive sign, the chairman of NATO’s Military Committee recently had a phone call with Russian chief of staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov, a discussion that had not taken place for over three years."

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"Russian National Identity and Foreign Policy"


Igor Zevelev vom Kennan Institute hat sich in dieser Studie für das Center for Strategic and International Studies mit dem Einfluss des russischen Diskurses über die eigene nationale Identität auf die Außenpolitik Moskaus beschäftigt. "This report analyzes how Russia’s domestic discourses on national identity — including beliefs about the self and the world, as well as interpretations of historic legacies — influence foreign policy and why this impact became particularly strong in the 2012–2016 period. It traces the role of domestic narratives in shaping international behavior to enhance our understanding of how and when major foreign policy shifts take place."

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"Survey Findings - Global Perceptions of Violent Extremism"


Das Center for Strategic and International Studies hat eine Umfrage mit 8.000 Personen in acht Ländern durchgeführt, um Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede in der globalen Interpretation der Gefahr des gewaltsamen Extremismus herauszuarbeiten. "To better understand public perceptions around violent extremism, CSIS commissioned a global survey with 8000 participants in eight countries: China, Egypt, France, India, Indonesia, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Participants were asked 65 questions on the scope of violent extremism, motivations and drivers, responses to the threat, and effective strategies to combat it. (...) Views on motivations for violent extremism are divided between Muslim-minority and Muslim-majority countries. In every country except for Turkey and Egypt, 'religious fundamentalism' is identified as the primary root cause of violent extremism. In Turkey, military actions by foreign governments are perceived to be the main driver, while Egyptians cite human rights abuses and poverty."

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"Undersea Warfare in Northern Europe"


Das amerikanische Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hat in einem umfangreichen Bericht zur Lage im Nordatlantik und der Polarregion eine Empfehlung zur Reaktivierung der norwegischen Marinebasis Olavsvern abgegeben, die nach dem Ende des Kalten Krieges von der damaligen sozialdemokratischen Regierung unter dem heutigen Nato-Generalsekretär Jens Stoltenberg verkauft worden war. "NATO can optimize its ASW posture to ensure that the right capabilities are in the right places at the right time by reopening Keflavik Naval Air Station in Iceland and encouraging Norway to reclaim and reopen its submarine support facility at Olavsvern." Der vollständige Bericht findet sich hier: http://www.ruv.is/sites/default/files/160721_hicks_underseawarfare_web.pdf

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"Tunisia: Radicalism Abroad and at Home"


Das Center for Strategic and International Studies hat eine interaktive Website über den radikalen Islamismus in Tunesien ins Netz gestellt. "This interactive website tells the story of how and why thousands of young Tunisians joined jihadi-salafi groups after the 2011 uprisings. It examines how a range of factors continue radicalizing Tunisian youth and how successive Tunisian governments continue battling an evolving knot of threats, while also grappling with the historic task of building a legitimate and representative government after decades of dictatorship."

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"Key Trends in the Uncertain Metrics of Terrorism"


Anthony H. Cordesman hat für das Center for Strategic and International Studies eine neue Studie veröffentlicht, in der er aus verschiedensten Quellen zahlreiche Daten zum internationalen Terrorismus gesammelt und empirisch aufgearbeitet hat. "Virtually all of the data available indicate that these threats to the United States and its allies remain critical and that the geographic scope and intensity of terrorism continues to increase. At the same time, there are critical problems and shortfalls in the data available, a near total lack of credible unclassified data on the cost and effectiveness of various counterterrorism efforts, and critical problems in the ways the United States approaches terrorism."

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"The Human Cost of War in the Middle East: A Graphic Overview"


Das Center for Strategic and International Studies hat eine neue Studie zu den humanitären Kosten der Kriege im Nahen Osten veröffentlicht. "War is always a tragedy in human terms, but the four wars in the Middle East have raised the level of that tragedy to truly massive proportions. These costs are summarized in detail in a new analysis by the Burke Chair at CSIS entitled The Human Cost of War in the Middle East: A Graphic Overview. (...) It draws on the work of a variety of UN agencies, the World Bank, the IMF, NGOs, media sources, work by other research centers, the CIA, and estimates of the trends in terrorism by START and Vision of Humanity. It provides both comparisons of the overall trends involved, and a country-by-country analysis of these impacts.

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"The Arab-US Strategic Partnership and the Changing Security Balance in the Gulf"


Das Center for Strategic and International Studies hat ein umfangreiches Buch von Anthony H. Cordesman und Michael Peacock über das sicherheitspolitische und militärische Bündnis zwischen den USA und den Golfstaaten im pdf-Format zur Verfügung gestellt. "The Burke Chair at CSIS is completing a new book-length assessment of the Gulf military balance, the military capabilities of each Gulf state, the role of the US as a security partners, and the priorities for change in the structure of both the GCC and the Arab Gulf military partnership with the US. This assessment goes far beyond the conventional military balance and examines how force developments in the region affect joint and asymmetric warfare, missiles, and missile defense, nuclear forces, and in terrorism, the role of non-state actors, and outside powers."

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"The True Nature of the Saudi Succession 'Crisis'"


In Saudi-Arabien wird erneut über mögliche Nachfolger des erkrankten Königs Abdullah diskutiert. Anthony H. Cordesman lobt Abdullah für dessen Reformen zur Modernisierung des Landes und erwartet nicht, dass sich dieser Kurs unter dem Nachfolger des Königs wesentlich ändern wird. "As succession crises go, however, the choice of next Saudi king is likely to be a non-crisis. The Kingdom has come a long way since the struggle that brought Ibn Saud to power. It is now a modern state by most standards, and its royal politics – while both interesting and uncertain – seem unlikely to be a serious source of instability or lead to serious shifts in its strategic role and partnership with the United States."

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"Where Is Latin America in the Fight against ISIL?"


Carl Meacham fragt, warum sich die lateinamerikanischen Länder im internationalen Kampf gegen den Islamischen Staat bislang merklich zurückgehalten hätten. Neben den relativ schwachen politischen Beziehungen Lateinamerikas zum Nahen Osten verweist er auch auf die verbreitete Skepsis gegenüber der amerikanischen Interventionspolitik. "(...) Latin American countries have, in general, not enjoyed robust relations with their counterparts in the Middle East. Much of the interregional interactions have been in the form of capital investment flows, but even these have been limited at best. So while from a U.S. perspective, it is hard to imagine a foreign policy without Middle Eastern security and stability among its top priorities, the same cannot be said for Latin America. Generally noninterventionist in ideology, with a premium on the respect for sovereignty, Latin American governments have found themselves unable to justify military engagement in a region they perceive as nonpivotal to their own well-being."

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"Crisis in Ukraine: What role does energy play?"


Energiepolitische Interessen spielten eine wichtige Rolle in der Ukraine-Krise, schreiben auch Edward C. Chow, Sarah O. Ladislaw und Michelle Melton vom Center for Strategic and International Studies. Angesichts hoher Energieschulden der Ukraine drohe dem Land gegenwärtig der Stopp russischer Gaslieferungen. Langfristig seien Maßnahmen denkbar, um diese riskante Abhängigkeit zu reduzieren: "In the medium to long term, however, there are a variety of options for Europe and Ukraine to increase their energy security. These include: Seeking alternative supply options. (...) Increasing domestic production. Ukraine has known conventional gas reserves which are relatively accessible and do not require the type of advanced technology needed for unconventional gas or offshore production. (...) While much of the focus has been on the supply side, reducing natural gas consumption is also a medium to long-term option for both Europe and Ukraine. (...) The best way to put pressure on Russia in the long term and reduce European vulnerability is by encouraging significant structural reforms in Ukraine that result in a vibrant, transparent, and market-oriented energy sector."

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Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? Sicherheitspolitik.bpb.de liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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