US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

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14.08.2019

"The Geopolitical Implications of Future Oil Demand"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/geopolitical-implications-future-oil-demand

Paul Stevens von der britischen Denkfabrik Chatham House erwartet, dass die zunehmende Bedeutung erneuerbarer Energieressourcen die geopolitische Rolle des Erdöls, im 20. Jahrhundert Auslöser vieler Konflikte, bald in den Hintergrund rücken lassen könnte. Die Transformation könnte allerdings ihrerseits zu neuen Konflikten führen, so Stevens. "The global energy economy is undergoing a rapid transition from ‘hydrocarbon molecules to electrons’: in other words, from fossil fuels to renewables and low-carbon electricity. Leading energy industry players and analysts – the energy-forecasting ‘establishment’ – are seriously underestimating the speed and depth of this transition. (...) If the transition to renewables and low-carbon electricity happens faster than the energy establishment anticipates, the implications for exporters of oil and for the geopolitics of oil will be very serious. (...). The countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will be particularly exposed, with the possible consequences including an increase in the incidence of state failure in a region already suffering the fallout from having signally failed to address the causes of the Arab uprisings since 2011. Increased political and economic turbulence in the MENA region would also have the potential to create serious migration problems for Europe."

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02.07.2019

"The Destabilizing Danger of Cyberattacks on Missile Systems"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/destabilizing-danger-cyberattacks-missile-systems

Vor dem kurzfristig abgesagten Militärschlag gegen den Iran hat das US-Militär offenbar Cyberangriffe gegen iranische Raketenstellungen durchgeführt, um potentielle Gegenschläge gegen amerikanische Ziele in der Region zu verhindern. Patricia Lewis und Beyza Unal warnen vor dem Eskalationspotential dieser Strategie, da Gegner der USA ihre Raketen aus Furcht vor Cyberangriffen vorschnell einsetzen könnten. "In other words, the adversary may be left with no option but to take the chance to use these missiles or to lose them in a conflict setting. 'Left of launch' is a dangerous game. If it is based on a bluff, it could be called upon and lead to deterrence failure. If it is based on real action, then it could create an asymmetrical power struggle. If the attacker establishes false confidence in the power of a cyber weapon, then it might lead to false signalling and messaging. This is the new normal. The cat-and-mouse game has to be taken seriously, not least because missile systems are so vulnerable. (...) States with these capabilities must exercise caution: cyber offence manoeuvres may prevent the launch of missile attacks against US assets in the Middle East or in the Pacific regions, but they may also interfere with US missile launches in the future. Even, as has recently been revealed, US cyber weapons targeting an adversary may blow back and inadvertently infect US systems. Nobody is invulnerable."

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03.06.2019

"The Struggle of Managing Trump"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/struggle-managing-trump

Robin Niblett, Direktor des Thinktanks Chatham House, vergleicht das politische Umfeld des aktuellen Besuchs des US-Präsidenten in Großbritannien mit der Lage während der London-Visite Donald Trumps vor einem Jahr. Während Trump die US-Regierung mittlerweile weitgehend mit Gefolgsleuten besetzt und gute Aussichten auf eine Wiederwahl habe, wirke Europa zunehmend geschwächt. "Today, Europeans hold no sway and have no say over U.S. foreign policy decisions that many believe run counter to their interests. Yet they and their companies are being forced to serve as agents of these policies. They are being bullied, and it is working. President Trump has exposed pitilessly the fact that, while might may not be right, might generally wins. Europeans cannot play hardball in return unless they have the resources and credibility to follow through. On security, they currently lack both the resources and the combined political willpower to demonstrate strategic autonomy. On the economic front, however, the situation is more nuanced."

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22.03.2019

"Are We Seeing a Second Wave of the Arab Spring?"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/are-we-seeing-second-wave-arab-spring

Georges Fahmi erkennt in den aktuellen Protestbewegungen in Algerien und Sudan Parallelen zu den Revolten des Arabischen Frühlings 2011. "In Sudan, the protest movement started as a reaction to an increase in the price of bread in December, eventually escalating into demands for regime change. Although the Sudanese president, Omar al-Bashir, has promised economic and political reforms, protestors have continued calling for him to step down. In Algeria, the protests started in February in objection to President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s decision to run for a fifth term. Under pressure from the protests, Bouteflika has decided to drop his plan to run again and has proposed postponing the elections while political reforms are implemented. Nevertheless, protesters have continued demanding for his resignation. The widespread protests in both countries have brought back memories of the Arab uprisings that swept the Middle East and North Africa region in 2011, leading many people to ask whether we are witnessing a second wave of the Arab Spring. The straightforward answer is: we are but the outcome of these protests is yet to be known."

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05.03.2019

"US Foreign Policy Will Continue to Divide Americans Beyond 2020"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/us-foreign-policy-will-continue-divide-americans-beyond-2020

Die kontroverse amerikanische Debatte über die globale Stellung der USA wird auch nach einem Abtritt Donald Trumps anhalten, ist Bruce Stokes sicher. Eine Rückkehr zum Status Quo vor der Trump-Präsidentschaft hält er für unwahrscheinlich. "Unfortunately, any assumption that America’s commitment to global engagement will revert to the status quo ante in 2021 if President Donald Trump is not re-elected belies the growing polarization in US public opinion about America’s role in the world. This partisan divide in Americans’ sentiment pre-dated Trump’s election and is likely to continue whatever the outcome of the next US presidential election. (...) three generations after the searing experiences of both the Great Depression and the Second World War thrust upon the US the mantel of global leadership, a significant portion of the American public is both weary and wary of continuing to bear that burden. These are sentiments that candidate Trump shared and amplified, but he did not create."

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30.01.2019

"Israeli–Palestinian Peacemaking: The Role of the Arab States"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/israeli-palestinian-peacemaking-role-arab-states

Yossi Mekelberg und Greg Shapland erläutern in dieser Studie für die britische Denkfabrik Chatham House, auf welche Weise die arabischen Staaten Saudi-Arabien, Ägypten, die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate und Jordanien positiven Einfluss auf den Konflikt zwischen Israelis und Palästinensern nehmen könnten. "So far, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE and Jordan have chosen not to test what this influence could achieve. One reason for the inactivity to date may be disenchantment with the Palestinians and their cause, including the inability of Palestinian leaders to unite to promote it. However, ignoring Palestinian concerns will not bring about a resolution of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, which will continue to add to instability in the region. If Arab leaders see regional stability as being in their countries’ interests, they should be trying to shape any eventual peace plan advanced by the administration of US President Donald Trump in such a way that it forms a framework for negotiations that both Israeli and Palestinian leaderships can accept."

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13.12.2018

"Back in Control, Syria’s Regime Tries to Build Its Legitimacy"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/back-control-syria-s-regime-tries-build-its-legitimacy

Zaki Mehchy bezweifelt, dass es der syrischen Regierung ohne politische Reformen gelingen wird, ihre Legitimität nach dem Sieg im Bürgerkrieg wiederherzustellen. "The regime in Syria is aware that its legitimacy, which was controversial even before 2011, has been deteriorating due to the drastic socioeconomic consequences of the conflict and the loss of political sovereignty. Thus, it is eagerly trying to prove its legitimacy to both the people and the international community by claiming its capability to conserve and protect the state’s main foundations of territory, population, and the state apparatus. But in all three, its claims are brittle. (...) The regime cannot continue as that authority, unless structural changes are made to break the dominance of the regime over the state institutions and then transform the role of these institutions from one of tyranny and oppression to one of inclusion and participation. Without such steps, the regime will fail to gain real legitimacy, and the country will continue to face conflicts and future uncertainty."

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15.01.2018

"Better Israeli-Palestinian Relations Are Possible"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/better-israeli-palestinian-relations-are-possible

Angesichts des schlechten Zustands der Beziehungen zwischen Israelis und Palästinensern verweist Greg Shapland auf einige Faktoren, die im Nahostkonflikt wieder einer positive Dynamik in Gang bringen könnten. "(...) a look behind the headlines suggests that there are more opportunities here than might appear immediately to be the case. For one thing, majorities on both sides still support a two-state solution in principle. They are slim majorities, admittedly. But the very fact that there remain majorities in favour of the two-state solution suggests that the proposal has enduring appeal (...) Meanwhile, there could be changes to the Israeli political landscape that might open up new possibilities. While no movement towards better Israeli-Palestinian relations can be expected while Benjamin Netanyahu remains prime minister, the end of the Netanyahu era might now be approaching. (...) Beyond national-level politics, there is a greater readiness on the part of Israelis and Palestinians to talk to one another than might seem to be the case. (...) a Chatham House workshop in East Jerusalem last November demonstrated that there are Palestinians who are prepared to take part in exchanges with Israeli counterparts. (...) However improbable it might seem right now, the coincidence of some or all of these factors could create a more positive dynamic between Israelis and Palestinians, at several levels. That in turn could re-energize an international community grown weary of the apparent intractability of the conflict and pre-occupied with other matters."

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20.11.2017

"How Influential Is China in Zimbabwe?"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/how-influential-china-zimbabwe

Auch Alex Vines vom britischen Thinktank Chatham House beschäftigt sich mit dem vor allem wirtschaftlich begründeten Einfluss Chinas auf die politischen Geschicke in Simbabwe. "China's relations with Zimbabwe are deep, starting during the Rhodesian Bush War. Robert Mugabe failed in 1979 to get Soviet backing, so turned to China, which provided his guerrilla fighters with weapons and training. Both countries formally established diplomatic relations at Zimbabwean independence in 1980 and Mugabe visited Beijing as prime minister the following year. He has been a regular visitor since. (...) President Xi Jinping visited Zimbabwe in 2015 and President Mugabe visited Beijing in January 2017. In public, the Chinese leader said his country is willing to encourage capable companies to invest in Zimbabwe. But in private, the message was that there would be no more loans until Zimbabwe stabilized its economy. (...) So, Beijing's interest is in a better investment climate in Zimbabwe. A clear transitional arrangement resulting in elections for a legitimate government in Harare is as much in Beijing's interest as London's."

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06.11.2017

"Mohammed bin Salman’s Shakeup Is More Than a Power Play"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/mohammed-bin-salman-s-shakeup-more-power-play

Jane Kinninmont bezeichnet die Strategie des saudi-arabischen Kronprinzen als "autoritären Populismus". Mohammed bin Salman konzentriere die Macht zunehmend in seinen Händen, um das Land mit der erhofften Unterstützung vieler junger Saudis in die "Post-Öl-Ära" zu führen. "(...) he appears to be betting that a large constituency of young Saudis wants to see radical change in the way the country is governed. He seems to want to harness that sentiment in support of change that is driven from the top down, by him, rather than the bottom up, be that by protests, activists or more radical challengers. (...) It is an attempt to a transition to a new model of government while preserving the continuity of Al Saud rule. And it represents an authoritarian populist approach which has an anti-establishment flavour despite coming from the heart of the ruling family. Overall, the move against senior princes is likely to bolster both MBS’s popular support base and his autocratic tendencies. Questions will remain about dissent within the family, but it is likely that princes will be too wary about their own positions to mobilize against the current leadership."

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12.10.2017

"Explainer: How the UN Plans to Unite Libya"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/file/explainer-how-un-plans-unite-libya

Tim Eaton erklärt in diesem Video des britischen Thinktanks Chatham House, auf welche Weise die UNO versucht, die rivalisierenden Fraktionen in Libyen politisch zusammenzubringen.

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15.03.2017

"Syria Is Not Lost Yet"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/syria-not-lost-yet

Trotz mancher Rückschläge in den vergangenen Jahren glaubt Neil Quilliam, dass der Westen immer noch einen positiven Einfluss auf die Nachkriegsordnung in Syrien nehmen könnte. Der größte Hebel sei die wirtschaftliche Stärke westlicher Länder, der weder Russland noch Iran etwas entgegen setzen könnten. "The World Bank estimates it will require $180 billion in investment just to return Syrian GDP to its pre-conflict level. This gives an opportunity to offer support for reconstruction with conditionality (for instance, regarding the return of refugees and internally displaced persons to their areas or origin). This leverage can also prove significant in determining Syria’s post-settlement future, which must take into consideration the dynamics of the changing landscape and avoid the assumption that state institutions can be automatically restored to their pre-2011 status. (...) Since 2011, Western policymakers have not only failed to bring an end to a brutal conflict but also shied away from confronting the biggest refugee crisis ever experienced, Despite this, there is still an opportunity to re-shape Syria for the good, drawing on painful lessons learned from the past six years and using the leverage that post-settlement reconstruction offers. This may be their last chance."

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28.02.2017

"North Africa’s Islamist Parties Provide Important Lessons in Secularization"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/north-africa-s-islamist-parties-provide-important-lessons-sec
ularization

In Marokko und Tunesien habe die politische Akzeptanz islamistischer Parteien dazu geführt, dass das Prinzip der Trennung von Politik und Religion zunehmend anerkannt werde, stellt Mohammed Masbah vom britischen Thinktank Chatham House fest. In beiden Ländern hätten sich die führenden islamistischen Parteien und religiösen Bewegungen zunächst aus taktischen Gründen getrennt, dies habe später aber auch zu einem ideologischen Wandel geführt. "Once separated, political Islamists in both parties shifted their whole ideological platforms to become more moderate and mainstream in order to respond to societal changes (economic liberalization, economic growth, electoral loss and changing voter preferences) and consequently to gain greater popular support. The PJD and Ennahda’s participation in government since 2012 has further catalysed the push towards secularization – needing the support of secular allies to stay in government, they gradually distanced themselves from their Islamist roots. Both parties have now called explicitly for the separation between religion and politics."

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21.02.2017

"Religious violence has a long history"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/religious-violence-has-long-history

Religiös motivierte Gewalt habe eine lange Geschichte und sei heute nicht nur auf den Islam beschränkt, stellt Oliver McTernan fest. Als Beispiel nennt er buddhistische Mönche in Myanmar, die zu Gewaltakten gegen Muslime aufgerufen haben. "The fact that all major world faiths have at times sanctioned the use of violence to protect or to promote their own sectarian interests allows religious terrorists today to claim moral justification for their actions. The faith-inspired terrorist can find in his or her religious tradition role models that give legitimacy to their own use of violence. It is not enough, therefore, for religious leaders to disown the murderous actions of their co-religionists and to denounce these terrorists as misguided fringe groups. To justify the taking of human life – whatever the circumstances – seriously questions religion’s claim that human life is a sacred gift."

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07.02.2017

"What Do Europeans Think About Muslim Immigration?"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/what-do-europeans-think-about-muslim-immigration

Eine Umfrage des britischen Thinktanks Chatham House in zehn europäischen Ländern hat ergeben, dass eine Mehrheit von durchschnittlich 55 Prozent eine Aussetzung der Einwanderung aus islamischen Ländern für richtig erachten würde. "In our survey, carried out before President Trump’s executive order was announced, respondents were given the following statement: 'All further migration from mainly Muslim countries should be stopped'. They were then asked to what extent did they agree or disagree with this statement. Overall, across all 10 of the European countries an average of 55% agreed that all further migration from mainly Muslim countries should be stopped, 25% neither agreed nor disagreed and 20% disagreed. Majorities in all but two of the ten states agreed, ranging from 71% in Poland, 65% in Austria, 53% in Germany and 51% in Italy to 47% in the United Kingdom and 41% in Spain. In no country did the percentage that disagreed surpass 32%."

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24.01.2017

"Pro-regime Militias Are Now the Biggest Obstacle to Ending the Syrian Conflict"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/pro-regime-militias-are-now-biggest-obstacle-ending-syrian-co
nflict

Haid Haid betrachtet die mit der Assad-Regierung verbündeten Milizen als größtes Hindernis erfolgreicher Verhandlungen zur Beendigung des Syrienkrieges. Die Gruppen und ihre internationalen Unterstützer verfolgten unterschiedliche Ziele, eine Folge sei z.B. der Bruch vereinbarter Waffenruhen. "Although the same challenges also apply to rebel groups, Turkey’s total control over the only support routes to rebel groups in northern Syria has pressured them to follow Turkey’s instructions, or at least to avoid opposing them. In contrast, the Syrian regime’s backers have sharply diverging agendas. Russia’s interest, after successfully securing the Syrian regime, lies in ending the Syrian conflict as soon as possible. (...) In the long term, Moscow’s objective is to restore a strong state with functioning institutions and a monopoly over arms. On the contrary, Iran’s vision is to maintain strong proxy militias, as it does in Lebanon and Iraq, to protect its long-term interests in Syria and the region. (...) The real challenge ahead relies on bringing the regime and its allies together to respect the confidence-building measures and the shaky ongoing ceasefire."

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13.12.2016

"Liberalism in Retreat"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/liberalism-retreat

Die liberalen Demokratien im Westen müssten angesichts ihrer wirtschaftlichen und politischen Probleme zumindest vorerst von ihrer Mission der internationalen Ausbreitung der demokratischen Ordnung Abstand nehmen, schreibt Robin Niblett, Direktor des britischen Thinktanks Chatham House. "This need not be bad news if it allows democracies and their illiberal counterparts to find ways to coexist. (...) The countries that built the liberal international order are weaker today than they have been for three generations. But liberal policymakers would be wrong to hunker down or resort to containment. An extended stand-off with those who contest a liberal international order may accidentally lead to outright conflict. A better approach would be for liberal countries to prepare themselves for a period of awkward coexistence with illiberal ones, cooperating on some occasions and competing on others. Time will then tell whose form of government is more resilient. If history is any guide, liberal democracy remains the best bet."

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22.09.2016

"How is the United States viewed from abroad?"

http://eliteperceptions.chathamhouse.org/

Der britische Thinktank Chatham House hat ein interaktives Dossier über internationale Elitenperspektiven auf die USA ins Netz gestellt. "This site goes beyond the data to outline elite perceptions of the United States in other regions of the world broken down by key themes and countries. It supports a wider research project run by Chatham House which analyses America's image abroad, and examines how the effectiveness of US foreign policy can be undermined by misunderstandings and misperceptions of US intentions. By identifying how others view the US and what factors shape those views, the project aims to better inform US policy-makers about the global environment they operate in."

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04.08.2016

"Going it alone after 43 years - Britain’s new global role after Brexit"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/going-it-alone-after-43-years

Die aktuelle Ausgabe der von Chatham House herausgegebenen Zeitschrift The World Today beschäftigt sich mit der Zukunft der internationalen Rolle Großbritanniens nach dem beschlossenen EU-Austritt. Quentin Peel schreibt in seinem einführenden Beitrag: "One possible scenario is for the 'separate' UK to flourish, while the rest of the EU flounders. But the opposite could also be true: a flourishing Europe and a floundering UK. British sceptics have all too often sought to predict the demise of the European 'project', underestimating the determination of its members to ensure the survival of what the Germans call a Schicksalsgemeinschaft – a common destiny."

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20.06.2016

"Special Issue: China's Foreign Policy"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/ia

Das Magazin "International Affairs" des britischen Think-Tanks Chatham House beschäftigt sich in seiner aktuellen Sonderausgabe ausführlich mit den Hintergründen der chinesischen Außenpolitik. "The new issue of International Affairs examines China's grand strategy, its South China Sea policy, diplomacy in its neighbourhood and how the idea of the 'China dream' translates to the international stage."

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13.06.2016

"A Post-Brexit Britain Would Double Down on Middle East Alliances"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/post-brexit-britain-would-double-down-middle-east-alliances

Jane Kinninmont vom britischen Think-Tank Chatham House schreibt, dass sich die britische Nahost-Strategie nach einem möglichen Austritt aus der EU nicht grundlegend ändern würde. "Leaving the EU would not in itself be a game-changer for the UK’s role in the Middle East - but this is partly because Britain already misses many opportunities to work with the EU there. The UK’s relative military strength, colonial history, expertise and elite relationships all shape a MENA policy that is more bilateral than multilateral. But British influence is patchy, and Brexit would make it more so. A post-Brexit Britain would likely double down on its existing geographic areas of strength, and would put particular priority on trade and defence with the Gulf; relations with North Africa could end up being neglected, and the Middle East Peace Process would probably remain on the back burner."

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26.04.2016

"Britain's Military Standing Would Not Suffer After Brexit"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/britains-military-standing-would-not-suffer-after-brexit

Anand Menon hat sich mit den sicherheitspolitischen Folgen eines möglichen EU-Austritts Großbritanniens beschäftigt und meint, dass die britische Bündnisfähigkeit keineswegs geschwächt werden würde. Im Gegenteil: "The British government, sensitive to accusations of disloyalty, would probably go out of its way to defuse them, not least to reassure the US. A post-Brexit prime minister would be quick to reaffirm the country’s commitment to NATO by maintaining or even increasing defence spending. Freed from the political pressures imposed by EU membership, Britain would also find it easier to collaborate militarily with its European allies. After Brexit, a UK government would not face charges at home of conspiring to join a 'European army', and would thus encounter fewer obstacles should it choose to contribute to EU military missions (which, to date, it has been reluctant to do)."

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11.04.2016

"Decisive Diplomacy Essential to Securing Fragile Nagorny Karabakh Ceasefire"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/decisive-diplomacy-essential-securing-fragile-nagorny-karabak
h-ceasefire

Laurence Broers hofft, dass die aktuelle Krise in Bergkarabach von der internationalen Gemeinschaft genutzt wird, um den Konflikt nachhaltig beizulegen. Als diplomatische Plattform empfiehlt er die sogenannte "Minsk-Gruppe" der OSZE unter Beteiligung der EU. "Three commitments are then needed from the OSCE. First, a firm and specified commitment to the security of the parties; without this, they have little incentive to contemplate the necessary risks in moving to political agreement. (...) A second commitment is needed to address the political concerns of the parties. The negotiations process over recent years has slowed to periodic meetings of the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents and the foreign ministers only. (...) A third and final commitment is needed from the international community: to making a full investigation of last week’s violence available to the public. (...) These issues should form the agenda of a Minsk Conference, mandated by the OSCE Council of Ministers on 24 March 1992 to promote a peaceful resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, but never actually convened. It is long overdue."

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30.03.2016

"Syria and its neighbours"

https://syria.chathamhouse.org/

Die britische Denkfabrik Chatham House hat ein neues und offenbar regelmäßig aktualisiertes Dossier mit Analysen, Kommentaren, Videos und Podcast-Beiträgen zur Situation in Syrien ins Netz gestellt. Als Startseite gibt es eine interaktive Einführung zum aktuellen Stand des Konflikts.

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08.03.2016

"Turkmenistan: Power, Politics and Petro-Authoritarianism"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/turkmenistan-power-politics-and-petro-authoritarianism

Annette Bohr stellt die Führung Turkmenistans als Beispiel einer "petro-autoritären" Regierung vor, die vor allem durch die international gefragten Erdgasreserven des Landes gestützt werde. "Despite a marked increase in state diplomacy, Turkmenistan has taken few genuine steps to engage with the international community. (...) Efforts by Western governments and international organizations to foster development need to be made in relatively apolitical areas, such as agriculture, healthcare and education. (...) At the same time, concerns about human rights and religious freedom should be raised during bilateral meetings with the government of Turkmenistan, and Western embassies and international organizations should maintain contact with human rights activists and ensure review of Turkmenistan’s record in appropriate international forums."

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06.01.2016

Middle East's Sectarian Divide Threatens to Overwhelm a Generation

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/middle-easts-sectarian-divide-threatens-overwhelm-generation

Der aktuelle Konflikt zwischen Saudi-Arabien und Iran sei von einer gefährlichen Identitätspolitik geprägt, die die Region über Generationen "vergiften" könnte, fürchtet Jane Kinninmont vom britischen Thinktank Chatham House. "(...) sectarian identities have been used to create allegiances – or enmities – in the geopolitical competition between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran. This competition has intensified after the international deal over Iran’s nuclear programme, as Iran now expects to play a bigger role in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia worries about its expansion of influence. These regional rivalries are also contributing to an increasingly sectarian polarization in Yemen, where Iran and Saudi Arabia are backing different sides in a conflict that originally had very little to do with identity politics. (...) While the theological differences between Sunni and Shia Muslims go back some 14 centuries, the extent to which these religious differences are sources of conflict changes over time. Most Sunni and Shia Muslims live together peacefully − especially when states make efforts to integrate people and treat them equally. But the trend in the Middle East seems to be moving firmly in the opposite direction."

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13.12.2015

"Europe’s terror challenge"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/twt/after-paris-europe-s-challenge

Jean-Marie Guéhenno, Präsident der International Crisis Group, analysiert die Herausforderung, vor der Europa nach dem "Wendepunkt" der Pariser Anschläge vom 13. November stehe. Im Kampf gegen den IS müssten "fundamentale Entscheidungen" getroffen werden, bei denen die Erfahrungen der USA im Kampf gegen die Al-Qaida berücksichtigt werden sollten. "The structure of Europe’s reaction should have several dimensions, some of which can draw on the experience of the US, which scored successes as well as making mistakes in its 'global war on terror'. (...) Europe’s new struggle needs to concentrate on political solutions to the root problems in the countries from which Islamic State draws its greatest strength and where it is trying to establish its caliphate. Where it is most urgent, in Syria, this means adhering to a bottom line that a sustainable peace will not be achieved with the present regime untouched. This can only come to pass if the regime’s guarantors, Russia and especially Iran, can be persuaded that their core interests are among those a settlement protects. The goals of an international struggle, in other words, need to be moderate, the kind that, although facilitated by military means, can only be achieved by diplomatic compromise."

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27.11.2015

"NATO Could Play a De-escalating Role in the Russia-Turkey Confrontation"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/nato-could-play-de-escalating-role-russia-turkey-confrontatio
n

Beyza Unal meint, dass die NATO im Syrienkonflikt eine aktivere Rolle bei der Vermittlung zwischen Mitgliedsländern wie der Türkei und potentiellen Partnern wie Russland spielen sollte. "NATO could move to incorporate a crisis resolution mechanism, in specified non-escalatory terms and processes, between member states and partner states, where NATO member states and Russia meet together as equals in case of a crisis. This could re-establish a communication channel between NATO and Russia in particular, especially when the NRC is not functioning. If such a mechanism were in existence today, Turkey could have taken the issue to NATO’s crisis management system and pointed out its concerns over airspace violations, rather than shooting down the Russian bomber. This could have enabled the Alliance and Russia to participate in a dialogue that has been silent for more than a year. Instead, this incident demonstrates the delicate strategy of balancing deterrence policies with engagement between a member state and a rather troubling partner nation."

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10.09.2015

"No Changes in Moscow’s Stance on Syria"

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/no-changes-moscow-s-stance-syria

Nikolay Kozhanov schreibt, dass die Lieferung von Waffen und eine mögliche aktive Unterstützung des Assad-Regimes eine nachvollziehbare Fortsetzung der bisherigen russischen Syrienstrategie sei. "The authorities in Moscow appear to believe that by helping Assad they are protecting Russia’s national interests, particularly in combating jihadi fighters. In August 2014, Lavrov called ISIS 'the primary threat' to Russia in the region. The Kremlin maintains that Assad’s fall would turn Syria into another Libya, which would mean the further radicalization of the Middle East and export of Islamic radicalism to Russia, the North and South Caucasus and Central Asia. (...) Russia’s stance on Syria is driven by self-interest and reflects the conditions on the ground: Russian propaganda continues to repeat the idea that, although the government forces have lost a large part of the country’s territory, they still control the most populated areas. In the Kremlin’s eyes this makes Assad a person to deal with."

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02.09.2015

"Protecting Cultural Heritage After Palmyra"

http://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/protecting-cultural-heritage-after-palmyra

Agnieszka Jachec-Neale schreibt, dass antike Stätten und Kulturgüter im internationalen Recht eigentlich recht gut geschützt seien. Eine Durchsetzung dieser Regelungen in den vom "Islamischen Staat" besetzten Gebieten sei sicherlich schwierig, trotzdem könnten die Staaten mehr tun, um die Zerstörung von Tempelanlagen wie in Palmyra zu verhindern. "There are a number of workable ideas. Italy has proposed a specialized international rapid response force tasked specifically with defending cultural property from any abuse. Another way to ensure greater awareness and protection of cultural heritage would be to write its protection into the mandate of international peacekeeping missions, as has been done in Mali. Some have suggested embedding cultural property specialist officers, akin to the Second World War 'monuments men', alongside deployed military forces participating in hostilities. Both looting on the ground and illicit international trading demand not only laws, but serious international policing. Any effort with a chance of success must involve both war-torn states that provide the supply and the states that provide the demand, which often include Western countries."

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