US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

The Globalist


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"Nord Stream 2: Falling at the Last Fence?"

Alan Riley kann sich vorstellen, dass die Gaspipeline Nord Stream 2 aufgrund von Interventionen aus Washington oder Brüssel kurz vor ihrer Fertigstellung doch noch gestoppt wird. "There are two major problems facing Nord Stream 2. The first hails from across the Atlantic with the prospect of rapid imposition of U.S. sanctions. The second may very well hit the project from the EU’s nerve center in Brussels. There is a strong prospect that the European Commission will impose capacity restrictions substantially limiting the gas flows through the pipeline. As much as the German government wants to avoid such an outcome, Nord Stream 2 may thus fall at the last fence. It may end up either not being completed or, once completed, find that much of the pipeline cannot in fact be used."

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"The Yemen War in Charts"

The Globalist präsentiert eine Reihe von Karten, Tabellen und Diagrammen mit aktuellen Informationen über den andauernden Krieg in Jemen. "The U.S. Senate has voted to end U.S. support for the Saudi-led coalition’s war against Yemen’s Houthi rebels. The Yemen war is the world’s worst humanitarian crisis — about 20 million people need humanitarian assistance, the country is on the brink of famine and one million people are suffering from the worst cholera outbreak in modern history. Below is a collection of graphs, maps and charts, collected from a wide variety of sources, exploring the brutal conflict and its horrendous human cost."

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"Will a Chinese 'Sputnik moment' in AI Unleash Dynamism in the West?"

Denise Feldner stellt fest, dass Deutschland bei der Entwicklung und Anwendung neuer KI-Technologien ins Hintertreffen geraten sei. Die USA, Japan, Großbritannien und insbesondere China seien auf diesem Feld sehr viel weiter. "None other than the power-savvy Vladimir Putin has declared that '…the nation that leads AI will be the ruler of the world.' At present, five nations lead the global ranking on AI technology: China is in the top spot, followed by the United States, Japan, the UK and Germany. It was only in 2016 that China and the United States changed positions. Nonetheless, China leads with a vast distance from all its followers. Germany, for its part, ranks 5th worldwide when it comes to research output. However, Germany ranks 7th when it comes to applications. It ranks eighth when it comes to startups. This shows that Germany consistently misses to translate inventions into applications and product innovations. Part of the reason is a culture that hesitates to take risks and instinctively dislikes disruptive moves."

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"Erdogan’s Hostage Diplomacy: Why We Need a Transatlantic Response"

Aykan Erdemir und Eric S. Edelman empfehlen den USA und Europa, der türkischen "Geisel-Diplomatie" entschiedener und koordinierter entgegenzutreten. Eine Strategie pragmatischer Zugeständnisse, um westliche Geiseln aus türkischer Haft zu befreien, sei dafür untauglich. "The United States and the EU member states need to provide a clear message and joint response to Erdogan’s hostage diplomacy. For that reason, all future bilateral and multilateral deliberations with Turkey should start with the issue of hostages. American and European officials need to unequivocally convey to their Turkish counterparts that this is a top priority for their governments and the transatlantic alliance. Berlin’s policy of no normalization with Ankara as long as there are German political prisoners in Turkey is a good start. This policy, however, would be more effective if also implemented by the other NATO allies as well. (...) Ultimately, only a strong and coordinated response can deter the Turkish president from continuing to use Western nationals as pawns to advance his political agenda. To that end, the United States and the EU should consider targeted sanctions, such as visa bans for Turkish officials responsible for hostage taking and withholding of international aid, such as the EU’s Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance."

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"A Saudi Break With Ultra-Conservatism?"

Saudi-Arabien habe überraschend seine Kontrolle über eine Moschee in Belgien aufgegeben, deren saudische Prediger zunehmend als extremistisch kritisiert worden seien, berichtet James M. Dorsey. Dabei könnte es sich allerdings um eine PR-Maßnahme des Königshauses handeln. "Despite this one decision, Saudi Arabia appears to be making less of clean break on the frontlines of its support for ultra-conservative and/or militant groups elsewhere. Take the case of North Africa. Algerian media reports last month detailed Saudi propagation of a quietist, apolitical yet supremacist and anti-pluralistic form of Sunni Muslim ultra-conservatism in the country. The media published a letter by a prominent Saudi scholar that appointed three ultra-conservative Algerian clerics as the representatives of Salafism. (...) Saudi worries about Iran and its influence are too strong to count on more Saudi moderation, except in a few cases such as the Brussels mosque (where the PR value of a mosque closing is significant)."

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"Reforming Saudi Arabia: Easier Said Than Done"

Sollte der saudi-arabische Kronprinz Mohammed bin Salman seine Ankündigung einer umfassenden Reform seines Landes tatsächlich umsetzen wollen, könnte er James M. Dorsey zufolge nicht nur auf den Widerstand konservativer Kleriker stoßen. "Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s proposed reforms have largely been welcomed by Saudi youth, who constitute a majority of the kingdom’s population. While they should be a natural ally of the Crown Prince, they are likely to show mixed responses. This is largely a result of deep-seated attitudes that have been cultivated for decades. An unpublished survey of aspirations of 100 male Saudi 20-year olds indicated the problems Prince Mohammed is likely to encounter beyond opposition from ultra-conservatives to moderating the kingdom’s adopted interpretation of Islam. The men surveyed 'wanted social change, but they pull back when they realize this has consequences for their sisters. Their analytical ability and critical thinking is limited,' said Abdul Al Lily, a Saudi scholar who conducted the survey and authored a book on rules that govern Saudi culture."

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"Catalonia: First Signs of a Return to Reason?"

Holger Schmieding ist davon überzeugt, dass die katalanische Regionalregierung ihr Ziel einer staatlichen Unabhängigkeit auch aus wirtschaftlichen Gründen nicht erreichen könne: "In theory, an independent Catalunya could be a viable country within the EU and the euro after an amicable divorce. It is among the most attractive and dynamic regions of Europe. However, a prolonged standoff during a contested divorce could be an economic disaster for the region. For practical purposes, Catalonia cannot become independent against Madrid. (...) While the left-wing nationalists from the CUP may not care and even relish an escalating confrontation, most pro-independence forces in Catalonia come from the moderate center-right in economic terms. As much as they would like to be independent, most of them probably do not want their region – or their own businesses – to go bust in the process. (...) In a best-case scenario, Madrid and Barcelona would soon agree to revive the autonomy deal that foundered in the constitutional court in 2010."

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"The Saudi Paper Tiger"

James M. Dorsey erwartet, dass der Einfluss Saudi-Arabiens im Nahen Osten in den kommenden Jahren trotz der aktuellen Reformen des Königshauses spürbar zurückgehen wird. Die dominanten Regionalmächte der Zukunft seien die Türkei, Ägypten und der Iran. "Turkey, Iran and, Egypt have what Saudi Arabia does not: large populations, huge domestic markets, industrial bases, highly educated populations, and deep-seated identities grounded in histories of empire. Other than Turkey and Egypt, Iran also has important natural resources. True, Saudi Arabia has oil and also Mecca, but that is not enough to compete. Saudi Arabia is a regional power because of past containment policies towards Iran. Once Iran is unfettered, it will unlikely be able to compete for long. (...) Saudi Arabia’s current reform mix – the pursuit of short-term, opportunistic policies – will not provide any real solutions. Without an honest tackling of fundamental problems, the already piled-up mountain of threats and problems is much more likely to expand further, rather than shrink."

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"Ukraine: Something Is Happening Here…"

Kenneth Courtis wirft den ukrainischen Eliten vor, sich nicht an die Vereinbarungen mit dem Westen zu halten und ihr Land schrittweise zu "ruinieren". Die Enttäuschung über die Entwicklung in der Ukraine sei auch in Berlin immer deutlicher zu spüren: "From sources in Berlin, I am hearing that the German government is beyond being frustrated not only by the complete failure to address corruption of the past, let alone to slow the rampant expansion of corruption of the last few years. Germany has been a key supporter of the Kiev regime, but that support can no longer be taken for granted."

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"Yemen: How Europe Kowtows to America"

J. Brenner wirft den europäischen Regierungen vor, dass saudi-arabische Vorgehen in Jemen zu ignorieren, stillschweigend gutzuheißen oder an der Seite der USA sogar aktiv zu unterstützen. "The allies’ complicity in the Yemen tragedy manifestly endangers cardinal European interests, e.g. terror (by creating unprecedented opportunity for both al-Qaeda and ISIS to entrench themselves there), refugee flows, secure energy supplies. It shreds the EU’s moral authority. Yet, European leaders either follow obediently in America’s wake or hold their tongues."

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"Ending Pakistan’s Export of Jihadists: The Key to Win in Afghanistan"

Robert M. Cassidy begrüßt den neuen Ton, den US-Präsident Trump bei der Präsentation seiner Afghanistan-Strategie gegenüber Pakistan angeschlagen hat. "The fresh candor about Pakistan in the Trump administration’s recent Afghanistan policy announcement should mean that the United States will desist in the illusion that Pakistan, one of the foremost ideological and physical incubators of Islamist terror, Inc., is an ally and a friend. It is neither. Pretending that Pakistan was an ally in the war against Islamist militants, one that would act in ways to help defeat Islamist networks in the tribal areas, made the West complicit in Pakistan’s malicious strategic conduct. (...) To influence or modify Pakistan’s malign strategic calculus requires a trans-regional strategy that impinges on and appeals to Pakistan’s pathologies and perceptions. A viable strategy cannot address Pakistan without addressing India. Likewise, a trans-regional strategy cannot address India without weighing some degree of cooperation and reciprocity with China, Russia, Iran and the Central Asian states."

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"The Global Dimensions of the Qatar Crisis"

James M. Dorsey von der S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapur meint, dass der aktuelle diplomatische Konflikt zwischen Katar und anderen Golfstaaten im Kontext der Rivalität zwischen Saudi-Arabien und Iran analysiert werden sollte. Die Krise betreffe auch China und nicht-arabische muslimische Staaten wie Pakistan und Malaysia, die gute Beziehungen zu allen Konfliktparteien anstrebten. "Qatar, unlike other Gulf states, is organically bound to Iran because it shares the world’s largest gas field with the Islamic republic. Qatar, moreover views maintaining relations with Islamist groups as part of its national security. Saudi Arabia and its allies hope that economic pressure exerted by cutting air, sea and land ties to the Gulf state will force Qatar to mend its ways. (...) In China’s case, it threatens its One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative amid Chinese fears that Saudi Arabia intends to expand its proxy war with Iran into Balochistan, a key Pakistani node of OBOR. The rupture and military suspension could also complicate Chinese efforts to keep its Middle East policy in sync with that of the United States, the major power in the region, if Washington were to side with Saudi Arabia and the UAE."

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"The Battle Over Syria’s Future"

Alon Ben-Meir erklärt, warum die USA und Russland bei den Verhandlungen über die Nachkriegsordnung in Syrien kooperieren sollten. Ein Kompromiss, der die Interessen aller Parteien einbezieht, müsste seiner Ansicht nach sechs Punkte berücksichtigen: "First, a new federalist decentralized government should be created technically led by Assad, with which the main sects (Kurds, Alawites, Sunnis, and Christians) maintain a loose connection. (...) Second, the United States must accept the inevitable: Russia, having invested so extensively in the past six years, will maintain a stronger and more visible military presence in Syria that it had before the civil war, for decades to come. (...) Third, Iran will insist on maintaining a permanent presence, but it must be warned by the United States publicly and directly that creating a third front from which to threaten Israel will not be tolerated. (...) Fourth, whereas Turkey claims to have national security concerns, it must not be allowed to dictate the fate of the Kurdish community in Syria. (...) Fifth, a process of peace and reconciliation must be undertaken and supervised by representatives of the Syrian population with the UN that will include the other involved countries to prevent revenge and retribution. (...) Sixth, a massive international aid effort will have to be undertaken. Tens of billions of dollars will be necessary to facilitate the return of the refugees, the rehabilitation of the internally displaced, and the rebuilding of the country’s infrastructure and other social services."

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"Why Angela Merkel Should Be Grateful to Donald Trump"

Daniel Stelter meint, dass Bundeskanzlerin Merkel die amerikanische Kritik am deutschen Leistungsbilanzüberschuss im Fall ihrer vierten Amtszeit als Anstoß für überfällige Reformen nutzen sollte. "The answer to this challenge is straightforward: encourage domestic investment and consumption in Germany. And tax corporations at a higher level. They are not using their cash flows for investments, but rather choose to hoard the money. (...) Coming up with such a program might help to tame international criticism of Germany and at the same time benefit Germany. It could well be an agenda for Angela Merkel’s fourth term. Of course, you might think, that this would just be another crisis. But that’s exactly the point. If the economy as such leaves Merkel cold, the direct attack from Donald Trump and his team on the German economy moves that subject matter into Merkel’s comfort zone – crisis management. After all, she wouldn’t be handling the economy, but working to improve relations with the United States."

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"Trump, Berlusconi and That Feeling of Having Seen It All Before"

Matteo Garavoglia fühlt sich durch den Aufstieg Donald Trumps an die Ära des früheren Premierministers Silvio Berlusconi in Italien erinnert. "When I look at today’s America, with many Americans perplexed about just what might lie ahead, I cannot avoid having the feeling of déjå vu. And indeed, I have seen it all before. Which is why I tremble and want to sketch out my distant memories for us all."

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"Yemen – The Globalist’s Top 8 Features"

The Globalist hat ein kleines Dossier mit acht Hintergrundbeiträgen über die politische und soziale Situation in Jemen zusammengestellt. "From Yemen’s qat obsession and water crisis to its youth bulge and role in the Middle East, our top features on Yemen."

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"The New Battle For Berlin"

Stephan Richter hält Deutschland keineswegs für den klaren Gewinner des Brexit, auch wenn sich das Zentrum der EU nun endgültig nach Berlin verlagert habe. Von einer deutschen "Hegemonie" könne keine Rede sein, zudem werde die britische Stimme in künftigen Diskussionen mit dem eher staatsorientierten Frankreich fehlen. "'Hegemony' is a complete dead end. Even if it were available to Germans for the asking, they wouldn’t go for it. This isn’t false modesty, but the reflection of an astute understanding of international relations in the modern era. As with networks, what matters the most is to be the hub, not the hegemon. (...) The most elemental role of the UK inside the EU was that it was often the decisive factor in stiffening Germany’s resolve to opt for a more market-based approach. This remains an important factor, especially to counter the constant French refrain for a far more statist approach. Unless things change drastically, this constant nudge from London is now bound to fall by the wayside. That will make it much harder for the Germans."

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"Obama’s Syria Policy: The Illusion of US Power in the Middle East"

Gareth Porter hält es für fatal, dass die amerikanische Nahostpolitik von den sicherheitspolitischen Interessen Katars, Saudi-Arabiens und der Türkei bestimmt werde. Spätestens seit 2012 sei klar, dass die Golfstaaten in Syrien nicht moderate, sondern radikalislamische Gruppen unterstützen. Eine Kurskorrektur der US-Regierung sei bis heute trotzdem ausgeblieben. "The administration has claimed that it never favored the destruction of Syrian institutions, but that claim is contradicted by its acquiescence in the Sunni allies’ support of Nusra Front. (...) A U.S. administration that played a true superpower role would have told its allies not to start a war in Syria by arming jihadists, using the fundamentals of the alliance as the leverage. But that would have meant threatening to end the alliance itself if necessary – something no U.S. administration is willing to do. Hence the paradox of U.S. power in the Middle East: In order to play the role of hegemon in the region, with all those military bases, the United States must allow itself to be manipulated by its weaker allies."

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"Arab World: No Shortcuts to Deradicalization"

Alon Ben-Meir warnt, dass das Problem der islamischen Radikalisierung vieler junger Menschen in der arabischen Welt ohne Reformen der soziökonomischen und politischen Lebensumstände immer stärker zu Tage treten wird. "The Arab states must now understand that their youths’ awakening, manifested in the Arab Spring, is only at the beginning stages. Countries that have not, as of yet, been engulfed by the Arab Spring and argue that it was only a fading phenomenon are deeply misguided. It is only a question of when the rise of Arab youth will reach their shores to haunt them. The convergence of a plethora of jihadist groups into Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen is not accidental. And as long as grievances, hopelessness and desolation prevail, they will continue to provide fertile ground for radical Islamists to step in and capitalize on public despair."

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"Post-Brexit: EU Still a Superpower"

Auch nach einem Austritt Großbritanniens wäre die EU immer noch eine internationale "Supermacht", ist Steven Hill von der New America Foundation überzeugt. "Yes, the EU is juggling a number of daunting situations, but that’s what superpowers do. They deal with one crisis after another, year after year, some of them domestic and others international. A superpower by definition occupies a big corner of the world, in which messes happen and things have a tendency to fall apart. That rationale, always applied to the United States of America, also has its place when analyzing the EU. (...) The EU can survive David Cameron’s folly and Viktor Orbán’s audacity, and a few million refugees, and radical Islamic terrorism and too much austerity – as long as the European appetite for union remains steadfast and the heart of the enterprise remains beating."

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"The Dialectics of German Leadership in Europe"

Gunther Hellmann schreibt, dass die unangefochtene Führungsrolle Deutschlands in Europa neue Fragen aufgeworfen habe. "By bidding good-bye to the federal EU which the early EU advocates had envisioned, the alternative — 'intergovernmental' solutions — ironically depend ever more on Germany. As a consequence, they produce precisely the kind of 'German Europe' which presumably no one wants. Note, however, that this is not a Europe 'dominated' by Germany in the sense that Berlin ever more often gets its way. Rather, what looms at the horizon is a weak European Union, in Hannah Arendt’s political vocabulary. It is weak in the sense that it lacks the ability to 'act in concert.'"

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"EU Refugee Crisis: Turkey as an Effective Partner?"

Aykan Erdemir von der Foundation for Defense of Democracies kritisiert die aktuelle "Beschwichtigungspolitik", die die EU gegenüber der Türkei aufgrund der Flüchtlingskrise verfolge. Der Verzicht auf die eigenen Werte werde die EU nicht sicherer und die Türkei zu einem "Massengefängnis" machen. "The policy of appeasing Turkey with the hope of transforming it into an effective border guard will not turn Europe into an impregnable fortress – as some in the EU hope. Rather, it will turn Turkey into a mass prison. Syria aside, what is most frustrating to millions of Turkish citizens who have long struggled against illiberalism and authoritarianism and shown their unyielding allegiance to EU values is the degree to which the EU has failed to show any genuine commitment to, and cooperation with, their Turkish brethren. Make no mistake about it: An authoritarian Turkey drifting away from European values and democratic governance cannot be an effective partner for the EU’s efforts to deal with the Syrian refugee crisis."

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"Obama’s 'Moderate' Syrian Deception"

Die US-Regierung wirft Russland vor, in Syrien vor allem "moderate" Rebellenfraktionen anzugreifen. Gareth Porter meint dagegen, dass es praktisch nicht mehr möglich sei, gemäßigte von extremistischen Kämpfern des IS und der Al-Qaida-Fraktion der Nusra Front zu unterscheiden. Die US-Regierung habe dies seit langem erkannt und insgeheim zugelassen, dass ihre Waffenlieferungen auch zu Verbündeten der Nusra Front gelangten. "Information from a wide range of sources makes it clear that every armed anti-Assad organization unit in those provinces is engaged in a military system controlled by al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front. All of them fight alongside the Nusra Front and coordinate their military activities with it. This reality even slips into mainstream U.S. news accounts on occasion. (...) U.S. strategy on Syria was then shifting toward a tacit reliance on the jihadists to achieve the U.S. objective of putting sufficient pressure on the Assad regime to force some concessions on Damascus. But the idea that an independent 'moderate' armed opposition still existed – and that the United States was basing its policy on those 'moderates' – was necessary to provide a political fig leaf for the covert and indirect U.S. reliance on Al Qaeda’s Syrian franchise for this military success."

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"India and the Threat of Islamist Terrorism"

Indien scheine derzeit trotz einer politisch und sozial in vieler Hinsicht marginalisierten Minderheit von 180 Millionen Muslimen von radikalislamischen Terroranschlägen verschont zu bleiben, berichtet Ronald Meinardus. Die indischen Sicherheitsbehörden hätten offenbar ein ziemlich genaues Bild von den Aktivitäten der wenigen IS-Anhänger im Land. "Compared with other countries, however, the number of ISIS recruits from India is negligible. This may perhaps be attributed to the efficiency of the surveillance and containment efforts of the authorities. On the other hand, the propaganda efforts of the 'Islamic State' seem to fall on deaf ears among the very big majority of Indian Muslims. For most of them, the Arab world is a distant universe with few immediate concerns for them. Does this mean the Islamist threat is under control in India? If you give credence to the government’s assurances the answer is yes. However, only the future will show whether the home of the world’s largest Muslim minority will stay unharmed."

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"Syria: Any Honest Broker?"

Die Beteiligung Irans an den Syrien-Gesprächen in Wien wird von Gareth Porter als positiver Schritt bewertet. Ein echter Erfolg der Verhandlungen sei trotzdem nicht zu erwarten, da die eigentlichen Kriegsparteien nicht an den Gesprächen teilnähmen. Nicht nur der IS, auch die der Al-Qaida nahe stehende Nusra-Front hätten nicht das geringste Interesse an Verhandlungen. "(...) both Islamic State and the al-Qaeda-led coalition are sectarian Sunni extremist organizations that have not hidden their intention to replace the Assad regime with an Islamic state that has no vestiges of the existing state apparatus. The Assad regime obviously has no incentive, therefore, to even hint at any flexibility on the demand for Assad’s departure from Syria, when it knows there is no possibility of any ceasefire or settlement with Islamic State and al-Nusra Front. (...) the price of Obama’s fateful political-diplomatic strategy is a sham peace conference that misleads the rest of the world about the lack of any realistic solution to the war."

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"The 'Blame Russia' Line Deflects From U.S. Blunder"

Gareth Porter meint, dass die Ziele russischer Luftschläge in Syrien von der US-Regierung falsch dargestellt werden. Die "moderaten" Rebellengruppen, die gegenwärtig die größte Gefahr für das Assad-Regime darstellten, würden von der al-Nusra Front dominiert, die der Al-Qaida nahe stehe. "Overall, the Obama administration strategy on Syria assumed a degree of control that is so obviously unrealistic that it was inherently risky to the point of recklessness. That is also why no one in the administration or the major U.S. news media is discussing the reality that the Russian offensive is targeting the biggest jihadist threat to the Assad regime."

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"United States: How Turkey Fell Out of Favor"

Die einst sehr guten Beziehungen zwischen den USA und der Türkei haben sich in den vergangenen Jahren stetig verschlechtert, stellt der türkisch-amerikanische Politikwissenschaftler Soner Cagaptay fest. "When I came to Washington in 2002, the Department of Defense was among Turkey’s best friends inside the U.S. government. The Pentagon considered Turkey a staunch ally and uniformed U.S. personnel had a deep affection for Turkey, going back to U.S.-Turkish cooperation in the Cold War and in the Balkans in the 1990s. Today, the Pentagon has, for the most part, lost its fondness for Turkey. This change is a result of America’s shifting sense of Turkey’s identity and role in the NATO alliance."

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"Syria: The Equation Changes As Germany’s Merkel Makes a Move"

Kenneth Courtis spricht bereits von einem neuen "globalen Konsens" in der Syrienfrage, dem sich jetzt nur noch die US-Regierung anschließen müsse. Die deutsche Positionierung in dieser Frage sei dabei besonders wichtig gewesen. "Angela Merkel’s recent statement that any resolution of the war in Syria requires the engagement of all major regional parties including Iran and Saudi Arabia could well break the stalemate on the Syria issue. (...) With Germany now tipping in the same direction and conditions on the ground going from bad to worse, the United States and its junior allies of France and the UK have little choice but to rally to this broadening international consensus or to find themselves locked into a position which is increasingly isolated and problematic. Germany has now signaled its position that all parties central to the conflict in the region, including Iran, Saudi Arabia and the government of Syria itself must be involved any discussions."

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"Germany’s Immigration Challenge"

Daniel Stelter, Gründer des Berliner Thinktanks "Beyond the Obvious", plädiert in seinem Beitrag für The Globalist für eine nüchterne Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse der aktuellen Flüchtlingskrise. "The advocates of more openness point to the benefits which an aging and shrinking population receives from more immigration and they see the potential costs as rather minimal, at least for a rich country like Germany. That is a rather rose-tinted assumption because it underestimates the financial costs, overestimates the benefits from immigration and clearly overestimates the financial capacity of Germany. Being overly optimistic helps neither the immigrants themselves nor the cause of promoting greater openness in German society."

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"Right-Wing Populism: A Threat to the Cohesion of Europe?"

Holger Schmieding warnt, dass eine rechtspopulistische Reaktion auf die Flüchtlingskrise in Europa zur ernsten Gefahr für das Projekt der europäischen Integration werden könnte. "If a right-wing populist wins a national election in a major EU member, demands to 'regain control over national borders' and to ignore European rules on human rights, he or she could theoretically take the country out of the union. We do not expect this to happen at all. Front National’s Marine Le Pen is far away from gaining power in France. France’s new Italian copycat is unlikely to win a serious national election and Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland is tearing itself apart. But right-wing populism is the tail risk to watch across Europe. It could first come to the fore in Britain if the planned Brexit referendum were to turn into a de facto vote over immigration."

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