US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

European Union Institute for Security Studies


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"Hacks, leaks and disruptions – Russian cyber strategies"–-russian-cyber-strategies

Das European Union Institute for Security Studies hat einen neuen Sammelband herausgegeben, der sich mit den Hintergründen der russischen Cyber-Strategie beschäftigt. "What is the relationship between cyber activities conducted by Russia at home and abroad? What role do cyber operations play as an instrument of Russia’s coercive diplomacy? How different is Russia from other cyber powers, and how do we know for sure if the Kremlin is behind certain cyberattacks that have been attributed to it? This Chaillot Paper examines these and other key questions as it explores how Russia’s increasingly assertive behaviour in cyberspace has lent new urgency to the debate about cybersecurity in the West."

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"Balkan futures – Three scenarios for 2025"–-three-scenarios-2025

Marko Čeperković und Florence Gaub stellen in diesem Sammelband drei politische Zukunftsszenarien für die Balkan-Region vor. "Will we witness Republika Srpska declare independence, a worsening of relations between Kosovo* and Serbia, and the rise of ethnic tensions across the region – or will we celebrate Montenegro and Serbia joining the EU, with good reason to hope that the rest of the region will soon follow? This Chaillot Paper presents three contrasting scenarios for the horizon of 2025 – best-case, medium-case, and worst-case. Each scenario takes account of the impact of underlying megatrends (trends that are unlikely to change by 2025) on the future trajectory of the region: the scenarios do not just spell out what 2025 could look like, they also explain how decisions with far-reaching consequences taken at critical junctures (called game-changers) will shape this future between today and then."

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"Russia’s return to the Middle East: building sandcastles?"’s-return-middle-east-building-sandcastles

Nicu Popescu und Stanislav Secrieru vom European Union Institute for Security Studies haben eine Studie mit Beiträgen über die neue Rolle Russlands im Nahen Osten herausgegeben. "Russia’s political, diplomatic, military and economic footprint in the Middle East and North Africa has expanded visibly over the last decade. This Chaillot Paper provides a detailed account of Russia’s spectacular return to the region. The paper depicts how major regional players have adjusted to the new reality but also addresses the question of whether Russia will be able to sustain its geopolitical ambitions in the Middle East."

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"Dealing with diversity – The EU and Latin America today"–-eu-and-latin-america-today

In dieser Studie für das European Union Institute for Security Studies hat sich Lorena Ruano eingehend mit den Beziehungen der EU zu Lateinamerika beschäftigt. "This Chaillot Paper examines the relationship between the EU and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It contends that the original assumptions underpinning EU policy towards the region no longer apply, due to the erosion of the liberal consensus, as well as the ongoing obstacles to regional integration in LAC. Highlighting the various shortcomings in this bi-regional relationship, the paper argues that focusing on bilateral relations between the EU and individual countries is the way to move forward today, as it is in this sphere that deeper and more concrete cooperation has been strongest."

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"Women in Daesh: jihadist 'cheerleaders', active operatives?"

Florence Gaub und Julia Lisiecka warnen davor, weibliche Anhänger des "Islamischen Staates" als fehlgeleitete Teenager oder naive Freiwillige zu unterschätzen. "Women in Daesh have been underestimated for several reasons: they constitute only up to 20% of the Western foreign fighters (estimates range between 550 and 2,500 in total), are somewhat younger than their male counterparts (22 on average compared to 25), and are portrayed by Daesh propaganda as conforming to highly conservative and consequently passive roles. But the narrative of the submissive Muslim woman – largely echoed by European public opinion – glosses over the fact that muhajirat (female migrants), especially Western ones, join the organisation with a radical agenda and the desire to see action."

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"Islamic radicalism in the Balkans"

Predrag Petrović hat sich in seinem Papier für das European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) mit der Ausbreitung der radikalislamischen Ideologie in den Balkanländern beschäftigt. "Balkan countries are among Europe’s top exporters of volunteers fighting for radical Islamic organisations such as Daesh and Jabhat al-Nusra. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) estimates that over 300 fighters from Kosovo have travelled to warzones in Iraq and Syria, while 330 fighters have come from Bosnia and Herzegovina, 110 from Albania, 100 from Macedonia, 50 from Serbia and 13 from Montenegro. This places Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina as the top two European countries by percentage of population who have joined terrorist organisations, while Albania is ranked in fourth place just behind Belgium."

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"US forces – between Europe and Asia"

Jan Joel Andersson erläutert, wie der außenpolitische Schwenk der Obama-Regierung nach Asien in den vergangenen Jahren die Präsenz des US-Militärs in Europa beeinflusst habe. "Since the US 'pivot' to the Asia-Pacific region was announced in 2011/2012, EUCOM [US forces in Europe] has steadily lost resources and forces. During the peak of the Cold War, there were over half a million US personnel assigned to the European theatre of which 200,000 belonged to the US army alone. Today, around 65,000 US military personnel remain permanently stationed in Europe of which some 33,000 are US army soldiers."

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"The EU as a terrorist target: why, where, and how"

Roderick Parkes schreibt, dass die EU als internationaler Akteur zu einem Ziel weltweiter terroristischer Anschläge geworden sei. Die EU sollte deshalb zusätzliche Schritte unternehmen, um die eigenen Vertreter und Institutionen besser zu schützen. "As an international actor, the EU can expect to win enemies as well as admirers. Two recent terrorist attacks in close succession – the first targeting an EU military mission in Bamako, the second in the 'EU quarter' in Brussels – seemingly confirm this. They also lend weight to the argument that if member states want the EU to be a robust international actor, they must give it the counter-terrorist powers to protect itself. But is the EU facing a classic terrorist logic of action-and-reprisal and, if not, what exactly is the EU’s risk profile?"

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"Understanding African armies"

David Chuter und Florence Gaub haben sich für das European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) mit den institutionellen Strukturen und besonderen Eigenschaften afrikanischer Streitkräfte beschäftigt. "This Report, which focuses on key features of African armed forces, serves as an introductory guide to those interested not only in the military institutions themselves, but also the context in which European CSDP operations in Africa are deployed. Capacity-building and training missions on the African continent are confronted with challenges which are often the result of regional historical, economic and political processes – but also the outcome of divergences which exist between European and African security environments, among African forces themselves and with regard to threats faced. In presenting this analysis of African armies, this publication aims to foster increased understanding of the relevant issues, and enhance European effectiveness in this field."

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"Envisioning European defence – Five futures"

Jan Joel Andersson, Sven Biscop, Bastian Giegerich, Christian Mölling und Thierry Tardy haben in ihrer Studie für das European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) fünf Szenarien für die Entwicklung der europäischen Verteidigungspolitik analysiert. "The aim is to develop plausible and coherent descriptions of what European defence might look like a decade or two from now in order to point out the choices and decisions that need to be made today. A key assumption underpinning these hypotheses is that the future of European defence will be of Europeans’ own making rather than the outcome of external pressures and events. Moreover, the publication highlights the fact that, whatever the future evolution of European defence policy, defence cooperation — which could take shape in many different ways — is essential if Europe is to be a global security actor in its own right."

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"Transatlantic counter-terrorism cooperation"

Florian Trauner hat in seinem Papier für das European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) den aktuellen Stand der transatlantischen Kooperation bei der Terrorbekämpfung analysiert. "European and US law enforcement agencies work together through several joint programmes such as the Terrorist Finance Tracking Programme (TFTP), which has provided more than 16,700 intelligence leads since it was launched in 2010. Despite the vital importance of transatlantic cooperation, the EU-US relationship has not always been harmonious in this domain. Indeed, the EU and the US have had to restore mutual trust that was badly shaken by the 2013 revelations by Edward Snowden about surveillance activities conducted by the US National Security Agency (NSA). Two new transatlantic agreements signed in September 2015 and February 2016, respectively, require American companies and government agencies to comply with stricter rules governing the protection of Europeans’ personal data."

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"Russia's world: facing a century of instability"

Andrew Monaghan vom britischen Thinktank Chatham House hat sich in diesem Papier für das European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) mit den Hintergründen einer russischen Außenpolitik beschäftigt, die von vielen Beobachtern im Westen als "irrational" eingeschätzt werde. Dabei betont er die Notwendigkeit, die Motivationen und Ziele der russischen Führung besser zu verstehen. "Bridging the gap requires empathy – seeing Russia as it is rather than as the West would like it to be, and grasping the numerous doubts and the difficulties the Russian leadership faces. Doing so reveals a very different picture, since it suggests that Moscow is both operating according to a different chronology and sees an arc of crisis around Russia, a wider international instability characterised by conflict, actual or potential. Equally, the Russian leadership is aware of the domestic systemic weaknesses which mean that Russia is not prepared to cope with the threats which emanate from such international instability. Moscow’s responses must therefore be understood as emergency measures tantamount to putting the country onto a war footing."

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"Transatlantic drug trafficking – via Africa"

José Luengo-Cabrera und Anouk Moser erläutern in ihrem Bericht für das European Union Institute for Security Studies, welche Rolle Westafrika als Umschlagplatz für den Drogenschmuggel zwischen Lateinamerika und Europa spielt. "With growing European demand for high-value drugs, the activities of smugglers risk expanding in West Africa, where law-enforcement remains weak. This has significant implications for EU security policies, particularly as the transatlantic drug trade is an important source of revenue for organised crime and terrorist activities south of the Mediterranean. Although EU-led counter-narcotics programmes have taken root, they remain underfunded and limited to trans-regional interdiction operations. Without efforts tailored to dismantling localised smuggling networks, the political economy of the transatlantic drug trade will remain largely unscathed."

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"Waging #Eurojihad: foreign fighters in ISIL"

Florence Gaub hat sich in diesem Papier für das European Union Institute for Security Studies mit dem Phänomen europäischer IS-Kämpfer in Syrien auseinandergesetzt. "Europe is not the main source of volunteers (Tunisia and Saudi Arabia together have more) and Europeans are not known to hold high-ranking positions in ISIL’s hierarchy. However, the jihadist group continues to attract a steady stream of people from across the continent who, regardless of their country of origin, often share a number of characteristics."

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"Towards an EU global strategy – Background, process, references"

Das European Union Institute for Security Studies hat einen Sammelband mit Dokumenten veröffentlicht, die die Entwicklung der Sicherheitsstrategie der EU nachzeichnen. "The volume explores the evolution of the European Security Strategy (or Strategies, considering the two successive versions of June and December 2003). It then dwells upon the 2008 report on the implementation of the strategy and, finally, briefly illustrates the basis on which the current HR/VP released her report on the 'The European Union in a changing global environment' in June 2015 and is now preparing for the new strategy, due out next year. Along with the relevant EU documents, the book also presents the two texts that are most likely to represent a key point of reference for the forthcoming 'global' strategy, namely NATO’s current Strategic Concept, dating back to 2010, and the latest US National Security Strategy, released earlier this year by the Obama administration."

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"EU sanctions: exit strategies"

José Luengo-Cabrera und Clara Portela schreiben in ihrem Papier für das European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), dass sich die EU bei der schrittweisen Aufhebung der Sanktionen gegen den Iran etwas leichter tun könnte als die USA. "Having already activated a first round of limited (and reversible) sanctions relief alongside the US in January 2014, the EU is now set to adopt an 'exit strategy': a procedural roadmap to ease punitive measures in accordance with Iranian compliance. With a track record of effectively rewarding acquiescent targets, the EU stands out as a responsive 'sanctioner'. In contrast to the US, the EU has repeatedly adopted a strategy aimed at incentivising progressive compliance with economic and diplomatic pay-offs."

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"Counterinsurgency: not an Arab specialty"

Florence Gaub untersucht in diesem Beitrag für das European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), warum sich Regierungen im Nahen Osten und in Nordafrika seit Jahren schwer damit tun, einheimische Rebellenbewegungen zu bekämpfen. Die jüngsten Beispiele für dieses Scheitern seien Ägypten, Jemen und auch Syrien. "Most Arab states suffering from a form of insurgency not only share a political culture of exclusion and a military conviction that hitting hard will achieve the desired results – they also operate with severe resource constraints, limiting their effective capacity to reach out to the populations they are trying to separate from the insurgents. Improving local services, for instance, was an important element of American counterinsurgency in Iraq. And the lack of jobs plays an important role in feeding the insurgencies in both the Sinai and northern Iraq. But since Arab leaders are already navigating in economically dire straits, it will be nearly impossible – not to say counterintuitive in their minds – to throw money at a problem that is perceived, first and foremost, as a security issue."

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"The threat of state-sponsored industrial espionage"

Massimo Pellegrino macht in seinem Papier für das European Union Institute for Security Studies auf die wachsende Bedrohung durch staatlich sanktionierte elektronische Industriespionage aufmerksam, die auch aus sicherheitspolitischer Perspektive gefährlich sei. "Beijing denies it. Moscow refuses to comment. But, according to Robert Bryant, former US national counterintelligence executive, the governments of both countries are behind efforts to clandestinely acquire industrial secrets, particularly in the realm of cyberspace. In Europe this warning gained little traction. Few governments have complained publicly about such theft. Many businesses preferred to downplay the problem for fear of retaliation. However, this problem can no longer be ignored, and institutions across Europe have finally woken up to the implications of industrial espionage for their national security."

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"Countering terrorism: an area for EU-China cooperation?"

Mathieu Duchâtel und Alice Ekman empfehlen der EU in ihrem Papier für das European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) eine Kooperation mit China auf dem Gebiet der Terrorismusbekämpfung trotz normativer Meinungsunterschiede ins Auge zu fassen. "For Europeans, the case for cooperation with China at the EU level requires some justification given that counter-terrorism falls within national competencies. The 2005 EU counter-terrorism strategy makes it clear that the EU sees its own role in terms of supporting and sponsoring intra-EU coordination and national initiatives. Yet the three areas mentioned above – intelligence-sharing, civilian evacuation, and arms and export control – are fields in which the Union could take the diplomatic initiative on behalf of its member states and help coordinate their efforts vis-à-vis China."

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"Sanctions and Russia: lessons from the Cold War"

Nicu Popescu wirft in seinem Papier für das European Union Institute for Security Studies einen Blick in die Zeit des Kalten Krieges, um die Effektivität westlicher Sanktionen gegen die damalige Sowjetunion zu untersuchen. Kurzfristige Zugeständnisse der russischen Politik sollten auch heute nicht erwartet werden, langfristig könnten Sanktionen aber durchaus Wirkung zeigen, so Popescus Fazit. "The reality is that the longer Moscow’s policies remain unchanged, the more bite sanctions are likely to acquire, for they have in-built multiplier effects. The structure of the sanctions is quite telling in this respect. The hardest-hitting Western measures are not even designed to work in the short term (...). These measures, by their very nature, are likely to yield long-term results, especially since the timeline for such projects is measured in years and even decades, not months. This suggests that the point of sanctions is, at least in part, to deter potential Russian hostile action in the future, primarily in other parts of Ukraine or the post-Soviet space."

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"Sanctions against 'aggressors'– seven lessons"

Iana Dreyer und José Luengo-Cabrera erläutern sieben Lektionen, die aus den bisherigen Implementierungen internationaler Wirtschaftssanktionen gegen bestimmte Länder gezogen werden können. "Both historical precedents and academic comparisons indicate that the effectiveness of sanctions is, per se, rather limited. Statistical analysis covering the period since World War I shows that between one fifth and one third of them have fulfilled their stated aims – and often only partially. While, in general, sanctions tend to fail, the body of evidence on successful ones available today provides some interesting insights."

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"Algeria’s army: on jihadist alert"

Florence Gaub berichtet, dass sich Algerien angesichts des Aufstiegs dschihadistischer Gruppen in den Nachbarländern vor der schwersten sicherheitspolitischen Krise seit vielen Jahren sehe. Bei der Vorbereitung auf eine militärische Reaktion wolle die sonst bevorzugt allein agierende Armee diesmal auch auf eine engere regionale Kooperation setzen. "Rising security risks in Tunisia – as highlighted by the recent terrorist attack on a museum in the capital – and the possibility of total implosion in Libya are now combining with threats from the Sahel zone to its south. (...) The Algerian military, which was always at the epicentre of the country’s politics, is thus preparing for what it expects to be yet another crucial battle against terrorism. It is making use of the three C’s which it successfully employed during its fight against terrorism in the 1990s – containment, conflict, and conciliatory measures – and has added a new one: cooperation with partners."

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"Russia’s military: the weak links"

Der russischen Regierung werde es bald schwer fallen, die bisherige großzügige Finanzierung des eigenen Militärs aufrecht zu erhalten, sind Cameron Johnston und Nicu Popescu überzeugt. "(...) sanctions, the decline in military cooperation with Ukraine, inflation and plummeting oil prices have already conspired to undermine the foundations of Russia’s renewed military strength (...). The Kremlin’s 'political technologists' have whipped up the population into such a frenzy that to back down now and cut spending to Russia’s conventional forces would damage the regime. But if it maintains spending across the board, it deepens the economic crisis and imperils public services, thus courting public wrath. The deus ex machina of rising oil prices might save the day but, then again, it might not."

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"The Arab summer: searing heat, soaring violence?"

Florence Gaub untersucht in ihrer Studie, ob es einen Zusammenhang zwischen den hohen Temperaturen dieses Sommers im Nahen Osten und dem gleichzeitigen starken Anstieg der Gewalt in der Region geben könnte. "Much as rising temperatures are likely to have a global impact to differing degrees, they are clear conflict multipliers in the MENA region. If Arab states do not manage to mitigate the effects of these climate-related challenges, future summers will be even hotter, in terms of both temperature and violence. And although heat is not currently a cause of regional conflict, spill-over effects in a region plagued by porous borders cannot be ruled out in the future."

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"The Arab War(s) on Terror"

Florence Gaub und Patryk Pawlak bezeichnen die Bekämpfung der ISIS durch zahlreiche Regierungen im Nahen Osten in ihrer Studie für das European Union Institute for Security Studies als "Arabischen Krieg gegen den Terror". "With jihadi groups in control of swathes of Iraq, deadly attacks occurring on a weekly basis across the region, and governments adopting harsher measures to counter the spiral of violence, terrorism is back on the Arab agenda. Three years after the killing of Osama bin Laden, terrorist groups – some affiliated with al-Qaeda, some not – are making inroads following a decade of relative containment. And while the region is no stranger to terrorism, Arab states now seem more determined than ever to stamp out the phenomenon."

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"Arab military spending: behind the figures"

Florence Gaub analysiert in seinem Beitrag für das European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) die Hintergründe der steigenden Militärausgaben arabischer Staaten, die nicht nur sicherheitspolitisch, sondern auch ökonomisch negative Folgen haben könnten. "Military spending data can indicate the likelihood of a conflict breaking out or recurring, as well as the state of economic development in a given country: where military spending is high, there is not only a stronger probability that war will occur, it is also more likely to return. Most importantly, where defence expenditure is high and keeps rising and economic development suffers as a result, the threat of war becomes even more acute."

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"One size to fit all? Setting standards for European defence"

Die Ukraine-Krise hat eine neue Debatte über die europäischen Militärausgaben ausgelöst. Daniel Fiott schreibt in seinem Beitrag für das European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), dass das Hauptaugenmerk angesichts sinkender Verteidigungsausgaben auf der verstärkten Standardisierung der europäischen Verteidigung liegen sollte. "Defence standardisation is increasingly critical, especially in an era marked by networked defence systems and sophisticated defence technologies. Yet across the EU, defence equipment is being produced and procured at different times and by different suppliers. While defence standardisation can refer to personnel training (standardized courses, manuals and languages) and finished platforms (standardising the arresting gear on an aircraft carrier), the term mainly refers to the standardisation of the component parts that go into constructing defence equipment."

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