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10.01.2018

"Judy Asks: Is the EU Putting Stabilization Before Human Rights?"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/75215?lang=en

Judy Dempsey hat einigen Experten die Frage gestellt, ob die EU in ihrer Außenpolitik tatsächlich eher auf Stabilität als auf die Durchsetzung von Menschenrechten setze. In den Antworten wird dies mehr oder weniger einhellig bestätigt, wobei die Bewertung dieser Gewichtung durchaus unterschiedlich ausfällt. So meint Pierre Vimont von Carnegie Europe: "The European Union is slowly learning geopolitics. (...) There is no point in freezing all contact with unpalatable partners to the risk of being deprived of any leverage. Diplomacy is about discussing — even with unfriendly partners — to avoid being sidelined. Does this recognition imply a new cynical touch for Europe’s foreign policy with its values left in oblivion? It rather sets a new course for the defense of European values with less public lecturing and more concrete action on individual cases of human rights violations, less posturing, and more result. The choice is not between stability and principles as there is no option there: both are necessary. It is about finding the right balance between these two indispensable components of any decent and effective diplomacy."

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05.10.2017

"Macron, the Atlanticist"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/73311?lang=en

In seiner Rede zur Zukunft der EU am 26. September habe der französische Präsident Emmanuel Macron die Vision einer europäischen Verteidigungspolitik präsentiert, die sich zur Erleichterung vieler Transatlantiker nicht gegen die NATO richten soll, schreibt Tomáš Valášek. "All three of his new defense proposals — the headline-grabbing EU 'intervention force,' the call for an EU defense budget, and the plea for EU nationals to be free to serve in any member state’s armed forces — appear calibrated to send European hearts racing while avoiding a theological dispute with NATO. (...) The use of the word 'intervention' is noteworthy as it appears to clarify that the proposed joint EU force would operate beyond EU and NATO borders. (...) Notably, Macron has also omitted the call for 'strategic' autonomy for Europe; choosing instead to emphasize the need for 'operational' autonomy. (...) The EU and NATO will continue to disagree on issues, such as defense industrial policy, or the need for separate reviews of member states’ defense capabilities. But these are manageable differences, even if important. A truce on the bigger issue of who guarantees Europe’s defense will come as a relief."

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06.07.2017

"The Anglo-German Addiction to American Defense"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/71447?lang=en

Daniel Keohane bezweifelt, dass sich Deutschland und Großbritannien aus ihrer sicherheitspolitischen Abhängigkeit von den USA lösen können. Dies habe finanzielle, geopolitische, aber auch psychologische Gründe. "For different reasons, Germany and the UK will likely remain addicted to U.S. defense. The alternatives are currently too daunting for Berlin and London. Germany cannot imagine itself as Europe’s leading military power, while the Brexit-bound UK appears to have no geopolitical options other than aligning itself ever more closely with the United States. (...) Anti-Trumpism alone will not convince Europeans to go their own way on defense. For one, most Europeans expect their relations with the United States to remain stable, according to a June 2017 Pew opinion poll, which suggests that Europeans still prefer to stick with the devil they know. For another, most Europeans are nowhere near psychologically prepared to defend themselves without U.S. protection."

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07.03.2017

"Will Europe Follow Trump on Migration?"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/2017/03/07/will-europe-follow-trump-on-migration-pub-68197

Nach dem erneuten Einreiseverbot der US-Regierung für Bürger bestimmter muslimischer Staaten macht Stefan Lehne darauf aufmerksam, dass auch in vielen europäischen Ländern immer restriktivere Einreise- und Asylbestimmungen erlassen werden. "If current trends continue, Europe might well follow Trump’s anti-immigration line. However, in the world’s most successful immigration society, Trump’s policies are likely to be a temporary aberration. The United States is better at integrating migrants and better positioned to control who comes in. In Europe, xenophobia and Islamophobia pose far greater risks. They might destabilize societies that already have large, insufficiently integrated minority communities. They will hamper efforts to stabilize Europe’s turbulent neighborhood. And they might put the survival of the European Union at risk."

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16.01.2017

"What Do Ukrainians Actually Think?"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/67693

Gwendolyn Sasse stellt die Ergebnisse einer neuen Umfrage vor, in der Ukrainer nach ihrer Meinung zur politischen Entwicklung ihres Landes befragt wurden. "According to a poll conducted jointly by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Center and publicized in early January, only 3 percent of Ukrainians think that the overall situation in Ukraine has improved. Moreover, these improvements are mostly associated with the country’s national defense capabilities. (...) Continuing a long-lasting trend, this poll confirms that not a single Ukrainian politician or political institution can count on citizens’ trust. (...) Too few people outside Ukraine take note of the mood in the country."

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09.12.2016

"Kaliningrad and the Escalatory Spiral in the Baltics"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/66402

Andrew A. Michta vom George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies warnt vor einer Spirale der militärischen Eskalation im Baltikum und insbesondere in der russischen Exklave Kaliningrad. Angesichts der aktuellen Spannungen käme eine neue strategische Kooperation zwischen Russland und dem Westen kaum in Frage, es sollten aber konkrete Absprachen getroffen werden, um eine Deeskalation zu erreichen. "As in the Cold War years, the West needs to look for points where its interests correspond with Russia’s, and finding a path to de-escalation in the Baltics is one of the items on which Western and Russian interests coalesce. It is premature to talk about a larger U.S.-Russian strategy, and the West should not waste its time and energy on another reset that would allegedly solve it all. Rather, engagement on the concrete matter of the escalatory spiral in Kaliningrad and the Baltics, where both sides are deeply invested, should be a starting point for a frank discussion with Russia. The aim should be to find a solution to a risk level that has become unacceptably high."

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08.09.2016

"The Line in the Sand: Finland and the Unpredictable Neighbor"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=64509

Der frühere finnische Botschafter in Berlin und Moskau René Nyberg erläutert die Hintergründe der Sicherheitsdebatte in Schweden und Finnland seit dem Ausbruch der Ukrainekrise. Im Zentrum der Diskussionen in beiden Ländern ständen die Beziehungen zu Russland und eine mögliche NATO-Mitgliedschaft. "The fundamental differences between Finland and Sweden may be illustrated by the two I’s of ideology and identity. Regarding ideology, the Finnish creed is pragmatism, the antithesis of ideology. By contrast, the Swedish view of the world remains strongly influenced by former prime minister Olof Palme’s legacy and social democratic philosophy. Identity for Finns is based on survival, while Swedes see neutrality as very much a part of their national identity. The geographic locations of Finland and Sweden partly explain the differences in the tone and substance of the two countries’ ongoing debates about NATO. The Swedish debate sounds more alarmist and is dominated by activists. Anna-Lena Laurén, the Moscow correspondent for a leading Swedish daily, put it this way: 'The Swedes are more worked up than worried about the development in Russia, [while] the Finns are more worried than worked up.'"

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18.07.2016

"The Strategic Consequences of Turkey’s Failed Coup"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=64119

Der Türkei-Experte Sinan Ülgen analysiert die strategischen Folgen des Putschversuchs gegen die türkische Regierung und erwartet, dass die Beziehungen der Türkei zur EU und zu den NATO-Partnern erheblich schwieriger werden. Auch das Flüchtlingsabkommen mit der EU sei nun noch stärker bedroht als zuvor. "(...) the post-putsch environment will reduce the government’s willingness to amend Turkey’s anti-terror framework. As a result, a diplomatic crisis by October is likely, with Turkey claiming that the EU has failed to honor its commitments. The entire refugee package, under which Turkey continues to host more than 2.8 million Syrian refugees, could then come under threat, with consequences for the flow of asylum-seekers."

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21.04.2016

"A Call for Shared Experimentation Among Democracies"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/2016/04/21/non-western-ideas-for-democratic-renewal/ixcx

Richard Youngs empfiehlt, bei Überlegungen zur Erneuerung der westlichen liberalen Demokratie auch auf Argumente aus nichtwestlichen Ländern zu achten. Er befragt vier Experten aus Brasilien, Südafrika, Indien bzw. der Türkei zum Thema und schreibt: "(...) it is highly questionable that a wholesale non-Western variety of democracy stands perfectly defined and ready to be implemented. Indeed, the calls for non-Western democracy exhibit many aspects that are far from convincing. Non-Western critics need to recognize that the concerns about social justice, community identity, and consensus that they frequently express as part of critiques of the Western democratic model are also present in Western debates about democratic renewal. Rather than a binary competition between Western and non-Western (or regionally specific Arab, African, or Asian) democracy, joint experimentation is needed among people in between different regions to find ways of updating the forms through which democratic accountability and representation are achieved."

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11.04.2016

"Ukraine From Revolution of Dignity to Government of Shame"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=63293

Mikhail Minakov, Professor für Philosophie und Religion an der National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, hält das aktuelle Auftreten der politischen Elite der Ukraine für eine "nationale Schande". "In the two years since Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity, or Euromaidan, Ukrainian politics has revealed its worst side: former corruption fighters have established their own financial-political clans; former democrats have created a superpresidential system, hunted the media, and deprived the opposition from having a say; and former reformers have sought to leave the drowning government as soon as possible. The political crisis that started in February 2016 has shown Ukraine’s post-Euromaidan political elite to be a source of national shame."

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03.03.2016

"Suspend Schengen to Rescue Europe"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=62954

Judy Dempsey meint, dass das schiere Ausmaß der Flüchtlingskrise eine zeitweise Aussetzung des Schengener Abkommens erzwinge. Angesichts der nationalen Grenzschließungen sei es realitätsfern, am Mythos der uneingeschränkten Bewegungsfreiheit festzuhalten und Griechenland als alleinigen Sündenbock für die Krise zu präsentieren. "All these failings — poor intelligence sharing, insufficient external border controls, and the lack of a proper EU-wide asylum and migration policy — have undermined Schengen. It has become a free-for-all. To tackle these failings, the Schengen Agreement should be suspended for a limited period — up to twelve months. Commuters, industry, small businesses, truck drivers, and tour operators would all complain. So they should. The inconvenience and economic costs would be high. But that might finally concentrate the minds of EU governments. The suspension of Schengen should be used during that time to address the abysmal failures of the system and the EU’s abysmal failure to cope with the refugee crisis."

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12.02.2016

"American Absence and Franco-German Divides"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=62756

Carnegie Europe hat die diesjährige Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz mit einem Twitter-Feed verfolgt. Jan Techau fasst in diesem Beitrag seine Eindrücke vom Beginn der Konferenz zusammen. "The first observation is the striking absence of U.S.-related talk on this first day of proceedings. (...) Perhaps even more striking was the absence of any kind of discussion about the biggest piece of transatlantic news in several years, the quadrupling of U.S. defense spending in Europe that was announced by the Pentagon on February 2. (...) The second observation is how big the difference was in tone between the German and the French defense ministers’ speeches. The addresses illustrated that two years into the new German foreign policy spurred by German President Joachim Gauck’s remarks at the 2014 Munich Security Conference, the strategic culture between the two countries still could not be more different."

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12.01.2016

"Four Predictions on the Future of Europe"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=62445

Jan Techau, Direktor von Carnegie Europe, erwartet, dass die EU aus den aktuellen Krisen deutlich verändert hervorgehen wird. "(...) my first prediction is that in the medium to long term, there will be more integration of European foreign policy, and even of security and defense. (...) My second prediction is that the euro will not be part of a future EU. The common currency is a need that does not exist. (...) Third, I foresee, after heavy pains, a more complete single market, and also a common EU approach to migration — though not to the integration of migrants, which will remain primarily a national matter. (...) Finally, the EU will be a lot more realpolitik-driven. This is where I predict I will be hammered by almost everyone. Realpolitik here means that the EU will be a union less of values and more of transactional politics. (...) Taken together, this will be a very different Europe indeed. The peoples of Europe will no longer integrate because they feel love for the idea of an integrated Europe — if ever they did. Integration will come only when the pain is really massive. And it is massive only in some policy fields, not in all."

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26.10.2015

"Poland’s Euroskeptic Future"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=61741

Trotz der euroskeptischen Ausrichtung der neuen rechtskonservativen Regierung in Warschau erwartet Judy Dempsey nicht, dass Polen die Russlandpolitik der EU in Frage stellen wird. Die polnischen Beziehungen zu Deutschland könnten dagegen abkühlen, so Dempsey. "Apart from being Euroskeptic, Kaczyński is also very anti-Russian, unlike his Hungarian counterpart and the Czech president. He has never stopped believing that his twin brother and former Polish president, Lech, was assassinated (by Russia) when his presidential plane crashed in Smolensk, western Russia, in April 2010. (...) Another casualty could be Poland’s relationship with its neighbor Germany. The political, trade, and social ties had blossomed under Civil Platform. Kaczyński, however, has never hidden his dislike of Germany. (...) when Germany opposed NATO establishing a permanent base in Poland because Berlin didn’t want to provoke Russia (regardless of what Russia has been doing in Ukraine), Law and Justice blasted that decision. It’s a decision that Law and Justice is sure to bring up in NATO and make into an issue when Warsaw hosts the next NATO summit in 2016 — if it is not resolved before then."

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08.10.2015

"A Promise Unfulfilled: German-U.S. Relations 25 Years After Reunification"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/2015/10/08/promise-unfulfilled-german-u.s.-relations-25-years-after-reunificatio
n/iip8

Jan Techau schreibt, dass die USA von der Entwicklung des wiedervereinigten Deutschlands etwas enttäuscht seien, da sich das Land 25 Jahre danach immer noch sträube, als Militärmacht aufzutreten. "With grown importance and self-confidence on Germany’s side, there is also a growing risk of the United States and Germany getting into serious disagreements on big political questions. (...) Future Republican administrations might discover that Germany, despite its current robust posture vis-à-vis Russia, will always try to steer a less antagonistic course with Moscow than they find desirable. Similar clashes could occur on issues such as China, climate change, NATO enlargement, financial regulations, and trade. In such cases, it is likely that Germany will be a tougher and more assertive counterpart. This is the price America pays for having helped Germany reunify. It remains a small price for a historic achievement."

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01.10.2015

"Europe’s Powerlessness in the Middle East"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=61464

Judy Dempsey beklagt, dass Europa nicht nur im Nahen Osten einen "erschreckenden" Mangel an Strategie, Voraussicht und Krisenmanagement an den Tag lege. "The first is Europe’s — but also the United States’ — inability to do state building. The second is the questionable impact of hard power. The third is the fallout of wars: millions of refugees on the move, fleeing the areas of conflict. (...) if any European government believes or hopes that Russia’s bombing campaign will end the flow of refugees, they are deceiving themselves. This is the new reality that European governments will have to accept. It is questionable, however, whether Europe’s helplessness in the Middle East and its struggle to cope with refugees will make EU governments consider the miserable weaknesses of their foreign, security, and development aid policies."

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08.09.2015

"The Puzzle of Non-Western Democracy"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/2015/09/08/puzzle-of-non-western-democracy/ifiy

Richard Youngs hat in seinem neuen Buch "The Puzzle of Non-Western Democracy" die internationale Forderung nach Demokratiemodellen, die sich vom westlichen Vorbild unterscheiden, untersucht. Er erläutert einige Prinzipien, die bei der Suche nach Alternativen zum westlichen Modell beachtet werden sollten. "Calls for different models of democracy are becoming more prominent and widespread. The future of global politics will depend greatly on whether and how democracy can be made more effective, participative, and accountable. Many politicians, diplomats, and experts today argue in favor of non-Western models of democracy. Yet it remains unclear what such models should look like. It is more useful to think in terms of specific areas of democratic variation that can encourage democratic renewal - outside, but also within, the West."

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17.07.2015

"Letter From The Hague"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=60756

Louise van Schaik und Margriet Drent schreiben, dass der Absturz des Flugzeugs MH17 in der Ukraine vor einem Jahr eine Wende in der niederländischen Außenpolitik eingeleitet habe. Die niederländische Regierung sei heute eher bereit, auf wirtschaftlichen Nutzen zugunsten sicherheitspolitischer Ziele zu verzichten. "In sum, a new sense of realism has entered Dutch foreign policy. The current government is rather constructive when it comes to strengthening the EU’s diplomatic aspirations and policies. Citizens do not contest a larger role for the EU on foreign policy matters, whereas they are more critical of Europeanization in other areas. Nevertheless, a key issue is whether the Dutch truly believe the EU can deal with matters of high politics without the United States being involved."

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16.04.2015

"The Long Road to Dismantling Ukraine’s Oligarchic Democracy"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=59798

Judy Dempsey weist auf einen neuen Bericht hin, dem zufolge die bisherigen Versuche einer "Schocktherapie" nach polnischem Vorbild in der Ukraine vor allem am großen politischen Einfluss der Oligarchen gescheitert seien. "As if that’s not bad enough, the report argues convincingly that the Ukrainian ruling political class is indistinguishable from the country’s pretty narrow oligarchy. The oligarchs control the political parties (and therefore the legislature) and have their own paramilitary forces. The very same people also tend to be in charge of 'economic reform,' the report states. Moreover, the government seems unwilling to control private monopolies or capital flight. How can it when corruption is 'rampant on all levels of public administration'? The report goes on the describe how 'the 'masses' — i.e. the underprivileged majority (including small business) — are at the mercy of a wilful and corrupt bureaucracy.'"

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13.04.2015

"The Iran Deal"

http://carnegieendowment.org/specialprojects/IranDeal/

Carnegie Europe hat ein umfangreiches Dossier mit Informationen und Analysen zur Einigung bei den Atomverhandlungen mit dem Iran eingerichtet.

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03.04.2015

"Letter From Vienna"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=showIssue&id=1465&title=Capitals%20Series

Carnegie Europe setzt die Artikelserie über die außenpolitischen Strategien einzelner EU-Mitgliedstaaten fort. Im aktuellen "Brief aus Wien" schreibt Thomas Mayer, dass Österreichs Beitrag zur europäischen Außenpolitik "ambivalent" sei. "On the one hand, this relatively small country at the heart of the continent presents itself as very ambitious. For example, the government in Vienna initially opposed opening EU accession negotiations with Turkey in 2005, strongly insisting that the EU should respect its own capacity to absorb new members. (...) On the other hand, Austria is seldom willing to take risks in support of its commitments or to advocate policies that would trigger unrest among citizens, most of whom shy away from conflict. When the situation on the world stage becomes uncomfortable, Austrians all too gladly fall back on neutrality — formally and informally."

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26.03.2015

"German Power and the Ukraine Conflict"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/2015/03/26/german-power-and-ukraine-conflict/i4ye

Ulrich Speck mit einer ausführlichen Analyse der Führungsrolle, die Deutschland im Verlauf der Ukraine-Krise in Europa übernommen habe. Berlin habe seine Stärke vor allem auf wirtschaftlicher und diplomatischer Ebene demonstriert, in militärischen Fragen seien dagegen große Defizite deutlich geworden. "German power has developed in the postmodern context of the EU and the transatlantic alliance. In that specific international environment, military might has lost its primacy, while diplomacy and economic strength have become much more important currencies of power. But German foreign policy leadership reaches its limits if an adversary is not responsive to its tools, diplomacy, and economic pressure — if the other side does not share the principles of postmodern governance that shape international relations among liberal democracies."

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24.03.2015

"How Trade and Security Became Europe’s Unhappy Couple"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/2015/03/24/how-trade-and-security-became-europe-s-unhappy-couple/i4tx

Fredrik Erixon schreibt, dass Sicherheitspolitik in Europa in den vergangenen 50 Jahren eng mit Handelspolitik verbunden gewesen sei. Die Balance sei allerdings gestört, heute versuche die EU vergebens, ihre militärischen Defizite z.B. in der Konfrontation mit Russland durch handelspolitische Entscheidungen auszugleichen. "As Europe, the cradle of realpolitik, has devalued its military capacity, policymakers have lost their ability to understand power. European governments have increasingly seen military spending as an unexhausted source of budgetary savings. Power has become alien to Europe’s elevated ethos of perpetual peace at home and to the European Union’s foundational vision that economic interdependence alone can make war history. (...) Yet trade policy cannot substitute for security policy. Nor can competing or supplemental ambitions of peace and security distract European governments away from the pursuit of mercantilist desires in their trade policy."

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06.03.2015

"Is the EU Neighborhood Model Still Relevant?"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/2015/03/06/is-eu-neighborhood-model-still-relevant/i3lw

Die politischen Entwicklungen im Osten und im Süden Europas lassen Marc Pierini an der Effektivität der Europäischen Nachbarschaftspolitik zweifeln. "The political landscape across EU border regions has transformed radically and the east and south of Europe are undergoing even deeper political and societal changes than what meets the eye. Pre-existing EU assumptions about the neighborhood are now obsolete. (...) These developments render the EU’s traditional model (liberal democracy) and methodology (personal high-level talks and financial incentives towards good governance) largely ineffectual. (...) The comfortable days of dealing with like-minded liberal interlocutors are largely over: the 'EU model' is becoming less sellable in today’s global environment and the EU brand of democracy and civilization is fundamentally challenged. It is high time to adjust to these new realities. Yes, the EU needs to continue promoting its values but should also defend its interests and watch long-term evolutions."

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24.02.2015

"Why Ukraine Was No Game Changer — So Far"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=59163

Die Krise in der Ukraine habe die geopolitische Landschaft in Europa bisher nicht grundlegend verändert, meint Jan Techau von Carnegie Europe. Die bisherige Machtbalance sei auf "brutale" Art und Weise bestätigt worden. "In the end, Russian hard power prevailed over Western principle. This confirmed that the European security architecture ends where the guarantee of NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause ends. Ukraine was not and is not part of that architecture. No one in the West is willing to issue for the country a security guarantee that they cannot enforce. In other words, the West hates and rejects the language about Russian spheres of influence but silently accepts it. Contrary to what many pundits say, this is not a qualitatively new situation."

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16.02.2015

"Are Prime Ministers Taking Over EU Foreign Policy?"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/2015/02/16/are-prime-ministers-taking-over-eu-foreign-policy/i2bu

Die europäische Außenpolitik werde immer häufiger direkt von den Regierungschefs und dem Europäischen Rat bestimmt, stellt Stefan Lehne in seiner Analyse für Carnegie Europe fest. Außenminister und die außenpolitischen Institutionen der EU hätten dagegen mit den Jahren an Einfluss verloren. Lehne schreibt, dass Professionalität und Kohärenz der EU-Außenpolitik unter dieser Entwicklung gelitten hätten. "Prime ministers tend to approach foreign policy from a short-term and media-driven perspective and through the prism of domestic politics. This approach often neglects substantive analysis. (...) the European Council’s present handling of issues related to foreign policy has significant shortcomings. There is often not sufficient time for substantive discussions, and preparations for the meetings are frequently improvised. Sometimes, the European Council’s work is not well integrated with the relevant efforts of other parts of the EU’s foreign policy machine. The leadership of the Brussels-based institutions should aim to significantly upgrade the European Council’s foreign policy action and, through that body, energize the EU’s other foreign policy institutions."

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09.12.2014

"The EU Must Prepare for a Cold Peace With Russia"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/2014/12/09/eu-must-prepare-for-cold-peace-with-russia/hw8b

Die bisherige Russlandpolitik der EU, die auf eine Transformation des Landes abgezielt habe, müsse als gescheitert betrachtet werden, konstatiert Ulrich Speck. Um der "russischen Aggression" entgegenzutreten, sollten weiterhin wirtschaftliche und gezielte persönliche Sanktionen gegen Russland verfolgt werden. Auch eine Festlegung der östlichen NATO-Grenze lehnt Speck ab: "The easiest way for the EU to get out of the confrontation with Russia would be to disengage from the post-Soviet space and seal NATO’s external border. But that would be shortsighted. In such a scenario, there would likely be permanent, low-level conflict and warfare in Eastern Europe, as the countries in the region are not ready to accept full submission to Moscow."

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28.11.2014

"The Right Kind of German Leadership for Europe"

http://www.carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=57046

Jan Techau analysiert die vom früheren Bundeskanzler Kohl errichteten "drei Säulen" der deutschen Führungsrolle in der EU, die heute beschädigt und nicht mehr ausreichend seien. "The first pillar was a rock-solid idea of what the European Union should be. Almost all members of the German political elite subscribed to the same vision of Europe: if in doubt, favor integration. (...) The second pillar of German leadership was the willingness of all postwar German governments to give in just a little bit earlier and pay just a little bit more than other countries to forge compromise. (...) The third pillar of the Kohlian trinity was a painstaking effort to attend to the fears, worries, and concerns of Germany’s neighbors. (...) Part of Germany’s foreign policy leadership should be a less complex-ridden posture on hard security issues. It is still often misunderstood in Berlin how much of a hindrance Germany’s perceived unreliability in military affairs is for its proper role in Europe."

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10.11.2014

"Poland’s Foreign Policy Needs More, Not Less, Germany"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=57176

Judy Dempsey berichtet über polnische Diplomaten, die beklagten, von der EU-Diplomatie in der Ukraine-Krise ausgeschlossen worden zu sein. Ein neuer Kalter Krieg könne jedoch nur mit einer stärkeren außenpolitischen Kooperation zwischen Deutschland und Polen verhindert werden, so Dempsey. "Polish diplomats say they have been sidelined over the Ukraine crisis. This is because the so-called 'Normandy format,' which consists of the French, German, Russian, and Ukrainian leaders, now deals with Ukraine. The format hasn’t yielded much — indeed, there are reports of Russia sending more military equipment to eastern Ukraine. It is Berlin that is the most important player in the Ukraine crisis. That is all the more reason for Berlin not to marginalize Warsaw. Poland’s long-held belief in anchoring Eastern Europe to the West needs Germany’s political weight and economic influence. Berlin also needs Warsaw as a partner."

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01.09.2014

"What Tusk and Mogherini Mean for Europe"

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=56502

Judy Dempsey kommentiert die Ernennung von Federica Mogherini zur neuen EU-Außenbeauftragten und von Donald Tusk zum neuen Ratspräsidenten im Hinblick auf die künftige europäische Außenpolitik. "If, unlike their predecessors, the two appointees are given full rein to shape EU strategy, these could be crucial positions. With the Ukraine crisis and the conflicts in Europe’s fragile Southern neighborhood deteriorating ever further, the EU is more than ever in need of strong and decisive leadership in Brussels."

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Zahlen und Fakten

Globalisierung

Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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Publikationen zum Thema

Coverbild Internationale Sicherheit im 21. Jahrhundert

Internationale Sicherheit im 21. Jahrhundert

Die internationale Sicherheit ist fragil und bedroht. Wie können und müssen demokratische Systeme ...

Internationale Sicherheitspolitik Cover

Internationale Sicherheitspolitik

Seit Ende des Ost-West-Konflikts hat sich die internationale Sicherheitspolitik deutlich verändert....

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