US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Atlantic Council



"Macron’s Russia Reset"

Fabrice Pothier vom Atlantic Council führt den "Russland-Reset" des französischen Präsidenten Macron auf drei Überlegungen zurück: "Macron’s calculus on Russia is likely based on three factors. First, the United States cannot be relied upon to follow a predictable strategy on Russia. US President Donald J. Trump may have wanted his own Russia reset, but embroiled in a special investigation and with Congress stepping up pressure on Russia with sanctions, his room for maneuver is considerably limited. (...) Second, Berlin, where Merkel has been holding a firm line on Russia over the past three years, has reached its limits. There has been minimal progress on the Minsk agreements and Merkel is facing growing pressure from her coalition partners and German business lobbies to soften the line on Russia. And third, Macron is new to foreign and security policy, but no doubt a quick and able learner as he has shown in his first appearances on the international scene. (...) the one security and foreign policy priority that matters for Macron is the instability in the Middle East and North Africa. (...) it is also a region where little can be achieved, especially at the United Nations, without Russia’s consent. Therefore, the logic goes, a modicum of stability in troubled hot spots like Syria or Libya can only be restored if the West works better with Russia."

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"Macron’s Putin Policy: 'Firmness Without Provocation'"

Gérard Araud, französischer Botschafter in den USA, hat im Gespräch mit dem Atlantic Council deutlich gemacht, dass Frankreich unter Präsident Macron eine entschiedene, aber keine provokatorische Russlandpolitik verfolgen wolle. Im Gegensatz zu Washington betrachte Paris Moskau nicht als "existentielle Bedrohung" für Europa. "'Russia has done things that we don’t accept, but at the same time Russia has its own legitimate interests, so let’s talk with the Russians to see whether we reach compromise deals which are mutually acceptable,' he said.(...) The French president is interested in 'real dialogue, but also firmness, but firmness without provocation,' said Araud."

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"Is the Assad Regime Switching Gears?"

Hossam Abouzahr und Tarek Radwan schreiben, dass die syrische Regierung ihre bisherige Zurückhaltung beim Kampf gegen den "Islamischen Staat" offenbar aus strategischen Gründen aufgegeben habe. "The regime’s live-and-let-live approach to ISIS began to change when regime forces, dominated by foreign fighters (including Hezbollah and Russian militias), decided to retake Palmyra from ISIS fighters in March 2016. (...) Going after ISIS now is an attempt to rebuild the regime’s legitimacy as it demonstrates that its priorities align with the international fight against extremism. It also forces the United States and the anti-ISIS coalition into implicit support for the Syrian regime. (...) With Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and a motley crew of other foreign fighters providing support, the regime feels that it has neutralized the opposition threat and can turn its attention to regaining lost territory. The end goal of this war is not simply to crush the opposition, but to regain international legitimacy to ensure that Assad can ignore calls to step down and no future internationally backed efforts to topple the regime emerge."

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"ISIS Changes Tactics in Turkey"

Sollte tatsächlich der "Islamische Staat" für den Istanbuler Selbstmordanschlag am Dienstag verantwortlich sein, wäre dies nach Ansicht von Aaron Stein eine Abkehr von der bisherigen Taktik der Terrormiliz. Bei früheren Angriffen bzw. aufgedeckten Anschlagsplänen in der Türkei habe der IS kurdische oder politisch links stehende Gruppen ins Visier genommen, diesmal seien Touristen und damit auch die türkische Wirtschaft attackiert worden. "More broadly, these latest incidents point to the continued presence of the ISIS network in Turkey. Despite recent efforts to crackdown on this network, ISIS members continue to take advantage of it to move through Turkey to carry out attacks. The recent events also point to a two-pronged strategy to exacerbate Turkish-Kurdish tensions, while also attacking the Turkish economy. In the case of the latter, the strategy has succeeded. Thus, the concern is that the ISIS assault on Turkish economic targets may only have just begun — and that this is the start of a more concerted effort to attack Turkish"

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Der Atlantic Council hat mit SyriaSource einen neuen Blog ins Netz gestellt, in dem Nachrichten, Berichte und Analysen internationaler Autoren und Experten zur Lage in Syrien gesammelt werden. "SyriaSource, a new project of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, amplifies Syrian voices, alongside Atlantic Council researchers and fellows, to showcase issues most pertinent to Syrians. The blog will feature news and analysis directly from Syrian Sources as well as international experts."

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"Turkey's War in Syria: Of Kurds and Ways"

Ashish Kumar Sen berichtet über die Hintergründe der amerikanisch-türkischen Kooperation zur Schaffung einer "Sicherheitszone" im Norden Syriens. "A landmark agreement between the United States and Turkey — that allows US jets to use a Turkish air base to launch strikes against Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) militants and envisages the creation of a 'safe zone' in war-ravaged Syria — is a step in the right direction, but also raises some important questions. The deal draws Turkey deeper into the four-year-old war in Syria and is likely to boost the intensity of US airstrikes against ISIS."

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"US-Cuba Ties: A New Dawn"

Experten des Atlantic Council diskutieren in diesem Beitrag über die diplomatischen Folgen der Eröffnung der neuen Botschaften in Washington und Havanna. "Peter Schechter: There used to be exchanges of coast guard, discussions about environmental issues, conservation of coral reefs, exchange of government officials to discuss what would happen in the case of oil spills. These used to be majestic moves between governments that had never spoken to each other. Now this is going to be just regular stuff. We will have meetings between the Cuban Minister of Transportation with our Department of Transportation on ferries, airlines, charter services and they’re going to meet openly and not in third countries. The whole flora and fauna of meetings that used to be so dramatic because there would be only one every so often is now going to happen every day of every week in a very normal fashion."

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"Can Missile Defense Counter Russia’s Nuclear Saber Rattling?"

Robbie Gramer berichtet über eine Konferenz des Atlantic Council, auf der Experten u.a. über die Möglichkeit eines europäischen Raketenschilds zur Abwehr russischer Atomwaffen diskutierten. Der stellvertretende US-Außenminister Frank Rose habe technische und politische Gründe erläutert, die gegen diese Option sprächen. "Frank Rose, Assistant Secretary of State, said that 'the size and sophistication of Russia's strategic missile force' outweighs US and NATO defense interceptors otherwise 'available to defend against such a large force.' (...) Missile defense has always been one of the most politically contentious issues in NATO-Russia relations, and NATO's past rhetoric on missile defense may constrain its future posturing. For decades, 'we have been going around saying that our missile defenses are not directed against Russia,' said Rose. If NATO were to suddenly change that line, Rose argued that it would 'fundamentally give the Russians a political victory to say this is about us, we have been telling you all along.' The consequences of such a move are not relegated to Europe; the Chinese could worry that a similar situation would play out with the US missile defense architecture directed at North Korea turn toward them."

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"Ukraine, ISIS Wars Increase Europe’s Risks in the Western Balkans"

Der albanische Verteidigungsminister habe in einer Rede vor dem Atlantic Council darauf hingewiesen, dass die europäische Sicherheit heute besonders in den Balkanländern gefährdet sei, berichtet James Rupert. "Two anti-Western campaigns — one by violent Islamist militants and the other by Russia’s battle for influence — are growing in the western Balkans, where nationalist, ethnic and religious conflicts remain volatile two decades after the wars that demolished Yugoslavia. (...) The Russian appeal has reenergized Slavic militants. 'The number of those people from the Balkans participating in the Russian hybrid warfare is visible and worrying,' Kodheli said. Some dozens of Serbian nationalist fighters from the 1990s wars in the former Yugoslavia formed units and have fought this year in support of the Russian-sponsored takeover of Ukraine’s Donbas region. At the same time, Islamic militant 'jihadists are looking for fertile soil in Europe,' Kodheli said, recruiting fighters among the Muslim communities prominent in Bosnia, Albania, and Kosovo."

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"Yemen: Protests and Mistrust of Government Hamper Another Arab Struggle Toward Stability"

Acht Monate nach Beginn eines hoffnungsvollen Reformprozesses sehe sich die Regierung Jemens erneut mächtigen öffentlichen Protesten gegenüber, berichtet Tarek Radwan. Unmittelbare Ursache der Proteste seien die andauernde Korruption und die Aufhebung von Treibstoffsubventionen. "Tens of thousands of Shia tribesmen from Yemen’s Houthi movement have besieged the capital, Sanaa, for more than two weeks, demanding an end to corruption, the resignation of the government of President Abdrabbo Mansour Hadi, and the restoration of fuel subsidies Hadi removed in July. Those subsidies had swollen to an unsustainable 20 percent of the state budget, and Yemen’s international donors encouraged their removal as part of a plan to stabilize the economy. But the consequent doubling of gasoline and diesel prices unleashed latent (and growing) resentment toward Hadi’s government. Relatively inexpensive fuel had been one of the few tangible social benefits in a largely poverty-stricken nation."

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"To Save Ukraine, Pressure its Oligarchs"

Adrian Karatnycky glaubt, dass die US-Regierung den Konflikt in der Ukraine am besten durch eine spürbare Erhöhung des politischen Drucks auf die mächtigen Oligarchen im Land beeinflussen könnte. "The oligarchs have kept mostly to the sidelines of this crisis so far, yet they wield the political influence, including in parliament, to force Yanukovych into making concessions that could turn Ukraine back from the brink. The Obama Administration and EU governments should ratchet up their existing dialogue with the oligarchs into pressure. They should make clear that the West will hold those who have supported Yanukovych responsible for any crackdown against the opposition and will sanction them and their ability to invest abroad."

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Europa, Asien, Afrika, Amerika und weltweite Phänomene und Institutionen. Die bpb bietet ein breites Angebot zu internationalen Themen.

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Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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