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"Inside Morocco’s Foreign Policy"


Mohamed Chtatou von der Universität in Rabat mit einem historischen Abriss über die Ursprünge und Motive der Außenpolitik Marokkos. Über die marokkanischen Beziehungen zu Europa schreibt er: "Europe is only 15 kilometers away from Morocco, and, in a word, Morocco is its under belly especially in what concerns security. Cooperation with France, Spain, Portugal, Britain, Germany, etc. is very vital for the Moroccan economy. When King Hassan was preparing his son crown prince Sidi Mohammed (actual King Mohammed VI) for the job of a monarch, he instructed him to do his doctorate on the cooperation with the European Union. Today, the EU has a big stake in the Moroccan economy with France and Spain, in the forefront. Besides the economy, Morocco with its active and well-trained intelligence community is rendering many services to Europe in its fight against terrorism and religious radicalism. As to what concerns clandestine immigration, Morocco gladly serves as a gendarme for Europe, sometimes even against its own interests."

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"End Of Joseph Kony Hunt Breeds Frustration And Fear"


Die USA und Uganda haben ihre gemeinsame Jagd nach dem Warlord Joseph Kony nach sechs Jahren beendet. Samuel Okiror zieht ein Fazit der erfolglosen Operation in der Zentralafrikanischen Republik. "(...) calling off the mission, focused on Central African Republic, has left the commander of Ugandan forces in the country frustrated and advocacy groups concerned that the failure to 'kill or capture' Kony could see the insurgency rebound. Uganda began withdrawing its officially 2,500 troops from their base in eastern CAR last week. The pull out of 100 US special forces, who worked alongside the Ugandan soldiers, began today."

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"Bangladesh’s Unique War On The Islamic State"


Bangladesch versucht, die terroristische Bedrohung im eigenen Land durch die gezielte Verhaftung oder Eliminierung radikalislamischer Extremisten zu bekämpfen. Bibhu Prasad Routray, Sicherheitsexperte in Singapur, glaubt, dass diese "Neutralisierungsstrategie" langfristig nur begrenzt erfolgreich sein wird. "There is no denying that Islamist militancy poses a grave danger to Bangladesh’s security antid stability. However, the ability of kinetic operations alone to deal with the threat which has deep roots in the country’s polarised politics and unhindered mobilisation of radical Islam is limited. Since such efforts in the past against the JMB have only been temporarily successful, there are ample reasons to believe that present efforts, no more than replicas of the past, will only produce limited results. Moreover, with a licence to kill and arrest people, many of whom would probably be innocents, without legal oversight, such operations may actually contribute to the recruitment and mobilisation capacities of the Islamists."

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"Growing Russian Involvement In Afghanistan"


Abdul Basit von der S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapur schreibt, dass Afghanistan dabei sei, sich nach Syrien zur nächsten Bühne des amerikanisch-russischen Kampfes um machtpolitischen Einfluss zu entwickeln. "Russia and the US have divergent outlooks about the situation in Afghanistan. Moscow views the Islamic state of Khurasan (ISK), a regional affiliate of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) in the Af-Pak region, as the major regional security threat. On the contrary, America and its NATO allies view the Afghan Taliban as the major source of instability in Afghanistan. Moscow maintains that its ties with the Taliban are limited to peace negotiations and countering ISK’s influence. On the contrary, Washington believes Russia-Taliban contacts are to undermine the US and NATO mission in Afghanistan. The former advocates a flexible approach towards the Taliban, while the latter considers renunciation of violence, delinking of Taliban’s ties with Al-Qaeda and the recognition of the Afghan constitution and government as pre-conditions for peace talks. Moreover, Russia views the American proposal of moderate troop surge and increased military spending in Afghanistan as a recipe for more war and destabilisation. On the other hand, the US considers support of the Afghan Taliban by Russia, Iran and Pakistan as the major source of instability in the country."

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"Germany And Trump-America: Back On Track?"


Ulrich Speck vom Elcano Royal Institute in Madrid stellt fest, dass die Beziehungen zwischen Deutschland und den USA trotz bestehender Interessensunterschiede langsam wieder zum Normalzustand zurückkehren. Beide Seiten hätten dazu beigetragen: "On the German side, Merkel has worked hard to prepare for the meeting with Trump, trying to understand the latter’s worldview and attitudes. (...) On the US side pragmatism seems to prevail, at least on foreign policy. Trump’s national security team of very senior, experienced figures - Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster - understands the challenges and is determined to largely let continuity prevail in US foreign relations. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, the President’s senior advisor and increasingly influential on foreign policy, equally seems to have a moderating influence on Trump. The influence of the right-wing ideologue Steve Bannon appears to have vanished. (...) Overall it seems that US-German relations, which have been excellent under Obama, are moving towards continuity. There is still considerable risk of disruption, with the German defence budget and the trade imbalance as potential sticking points. But the Trump White House seems to see Merkel as a valuable, important ally."

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"If Trump Wants China To Pressure North Korea, He Must Compromise"


Ivan Eland vom Center on Peace & Liberty des Independent Institute ist überzeugt, dass US-Präsident Trump China nicht mit verstärktem Druck, sondern nur mit einem entscheidenden Zugeständnis in der Bündnispolitik mit Südkorea zur Kooperation in der Nordkorea-Krise bewegen kann. "Without a U.S.-South Korea alliance on its border, North Korea might be less paranoid and therefore more susceptible to Chinese pressure over its nuclear weapons program. In addition, the Chinese would be more inclined to apply such pressure. China is not fond of having an unstable nuclear weapons state on their border. Yet at the current time, the Chinese have been reluctant to apply to much pressure on North Korea for fear the regime will collapse, create a surge of refugees into China, and ultimately lead to a unified Korea on its border protected by the powerful U.S. military (similar to the inclusion of a unified Germany into the expanded NATO alliance in Europe after the Cold War ended). (...) If the United States wants China to police and constrain its allies — that is, North Korea — it must be willing to give up something in return. That is, if saving money by gradually ending the protection of a rich, ungrateful South Korean ally is really giving anything up."

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"Ending Syria’s Nightmare Will Take Pressure From Below"


Die gegenwärtige Kooperation amerikanischer und russischer Truppen in Syrien könnte schnell zu Ende gehen, da Washington und Moskau unterschiedliche Pläne für die Zukunft des Landes hätten, schreibt Mike Whitney. "(...) recent comments by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggest that Washington’s long-term strategy may conflict with Moscow’s goal of restoring Syria’s sovereign borders. Something’s got to give. Either Russia ceases its clearing operations in east Syria or Washington agrees to withdraw its US-backed forces when the battle is over. If neither side gives ground, there’s going to be a collision between the two nuclear-armed adversaries. (...) US objectives focus primarily on the breakup of the Syrian state, the removal of the elected government, the control over critical pipelines routes, and the redrawing of national borders to better serve the interests of the US and Israel."

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"Trumping Up Baltic Foreign And Security Policies"


Matthew Crandall, Politikwissenschaftler an der Tallinn University, erklärt, warum die von Experten als "tactical transactionalism" beschriebene Trump-Doktrin in der US-Außenpolitik die baltischen NATO-Staaten vor Probleme stellen könnte. "The symbolic nature of their contribution is why the Baltic states could get so much bang for their buck: for the small price of deploying a few hundred troops, they had the full political and military support of the United States. President Trump will likely not care much about the importance of the symbolism of Baltic participation. (...) This worldview is problematic for the Baltic states for three reasons. First, their contribution to American endeavors and international institutions will be worth much less to the United States, even when that contribution is directly in the interest of the United States. Second, as Trump’s support for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU demonstrates, he is not interested in maintaining the world order that the Baltic states depend on. Last, Donald Trump will lead an interest-based foreign policy that will create distance between the values that the Baltic states support and what the United States now represents."

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"Creating Frankenstein: Saudi Arabia’s Ultra-Conservative Footprint In Africa"


James M. Dorsey macht darauf aufmerksam, dass Saudi-Arabien seine "ultrakonservative" Interpretation des Islam auch in afrikanischen Ländern mit großzügigen Finanzhilfen fördere. Mit dieser Kampagne verfolge das Königreich nicht nur religiöse, sondern auch geopolitische Ziele. "What that campaign has done, certainly in Muslim majority countries in Africa, is to ensure that representatives of Saudi-backed ultra-conservatism have influence in society as well as the highest circles of government. This is important because contrary to widespread beliefs, the Saudi campaign is not primarily about religion, it’s about geopolitics, it’s about a struggle with Iran for hegemony in the Muslim world. (...) What is evident in Africa is that the kingdom or at least prominent members of its clergy appear to have maintained wittingly or unwittingly some degree of contact with jihadist groups, including IS affiliates."

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"The Pentagon’s '2015 Strategy' For Ruling The World"


Das Pentagon hat ein neues Strategiepapier veröffentlicht, das sich nach Ansicht von Mike Whitney allenfalls in der Rhetorik von der viel kritisierten Bush-Doktrin unterscheidet. Es gebe keine Hinweise auf eine kritische Analyse oder gar Abkehr vom Interventionismus vergangener Jahre, so Whitney. Im Gegenteil: "In the Chairman’s Forward, Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey attempts to prepare the American people for a future of endless war: 'Future conflicts will come more rapidly, last longer, and take place on a much more technically challenging battlefield. … We must be able to rapidly adapt to new threats while maintaining comparative advantage over traditional ones … the application of the military instrument of power against state threats is very different than the application of military power against non state threats. We are more likely to face prolonged campaigns than conflicts that are resolved quickly … that control of escalation is becoming more difficult and more important.' War, war and more war. This is the Pentagon’s vision of the future."

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"How Brexit Would Affect EU Power Distribution"


László Kóczy hat analysiert, wie sich die Machtverhältnisse innerhalb der EU im Fall eines Austritts Großbritanniens verschieben würden. Größere Staaten wie Deutschland und Frankreich würden demnach weiter an Einfluss gewinnen. "Using the latest available population data and population projections (Eurostat 2014) and software that can compute power indices for large games (Bräuninger and König 2005), we have calculated the power of each player before and after a potential Brexit (Kóczy 2016). It is hardly surprising that some of the remaining members would get a larger share of the 'cake', but some smaller countries are actually harmed. We also must not forget that the UK is a net contributor, so the budget (the 'cake' at hand) is smaller, further harming these small member states. Interestingly, the gain of the larger members is larger than the loss of the budget. It seems therefore that key members of the EU would directly benefit from Brexit, at least in terms of power."

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"Russia-Japan: Onset Of A Thaw? – Analysis"


Japan bemühe sich seit einiger Zeit um eine Verbesserung der seit der Ukraine-Krise besonders getrübten Beziehungen zu Russland, schreibt Monish Gulati. Die neue diplomatische Initiative von Premierminister Abe habe wirtschaftliche und geopolitische Gründe. "Japan sees a role in Putin’s pivot to the east; and one of the elements of this pivot is the development of Russia’s resource-rich far eastern regions that are likely to witness substantial Chinese involvement. This is likely the motivation for Japan’s sanctions against Russia over Ukraine being moderate and symbolic. (...) While Russia, with falling energy prices and a depreciating Rouble, has found it increasingly difficult to market its oil and gas and finance its energy infrastructure developments, its neighbour Japan has been importing expensive LNG from half way across the world to meet its energy requirements. This, despite Japanese firms already possessing stakes in oil and gas projects off the Russian far eastern island of Sakhalin. Both countries can mitigate their economic problems to a degree by simply enhancing their bilateral trade, investment and energy ties. An uptick in Russo-Japanese ties would not only improve their geopolitical postures and options but would also transform the Asian geopolitical canvas."

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"Islamic State In Southeast Asia: Internalized Wahhabism Is Major Factor"


Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid vom Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapur erläutert die Ursachen der Radikalisierung vieler Muslime in südostasiatischen Ländern und verweist dabei auf den wachsenden Einfluss des saudi-arabischen Wahhabismus. "Four decades of Salafization have altered the face of Islam in Southeast Asia. Although it would be inaccurate to equate Salafization with Islamization, it would conversely be unwise to dismiss the important presence of Wahhabi elements in various Islamization programmes initiated and supported by Muslim politicians. (...) In Malaysia, there hardly exists a countervailing force against the Wahhabi-Salafi discursive onslaught."

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"Continuation Of Western Sanctions On Russia Increasingly Depends On Ukraine"


Sollten die Reformen in der Ukraine weiterhin nicht vorankommen, werde der Westen seine Sanktionen gegen Russland letztlich aufheben, ist der frühere ukrainische Außenminister Vladimir Ogryzko diesem Bericht von Paul Goble zufolge überzeugt. "'If Ukraine itself does not want to take a tough line, then the question logically arises in the West as to why it should be more Catholic than the pope and do everything for [Ukrainians]', the Kyiv diplomat says. 'Alas, this tendency is appearing ever more clearly in recent times.' But he concludes on a more optimistic note saying that sanctions will continue for a time; but 'this extension cannot be infinite without active moves by Ukraine. If reforms, the struggle with corruption and genuine Ukrainian sanctions against Russia don’t occur, then the currently expected extension of sanctions may be the last.'"

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"Can Libya Survive More US Assistance?"


Linda S. Heard warnt dagegen angesichts der bisherigen Erfahrungen mit Militäreinsätzen in muslimischen Ländern vor einem westlichen Eingreifen in Libyen. "It’s been proved that airstrikes alone even with the complicity of governments cannot cure the disease that is Daesh; they only setback its ambitions while taking a toll on civilian lives. Let’s face it. Obama’s regional policies have until now has been an abject failure on just about every score. Why should Libya be any different? (...) If there is to be an initiative to erase Daesh from Libya it should be Arab driven and will require ground forces; a step too far for Obama and his European counterparts. An Algerian-Egyptian-Tunisian military alliance would be preferable to the usual suspects the US, UK and France repeating the same old mistakes in the hope this time there will be a different outcome. As long as the same failed formula is used, there rarely is!"

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"Is Refugee Issue Hanging Like Damocles Sword Over Europe?"


Nach Ansicht von N. S. Venkataraman von der indischen Organisation "Nandini Voice for the Deprived" steht in der aktuellen Flüchtlingskrise langfristig auch das europäische Gesellschaftsmodell auf dem Spiel. Es sei erstaunlich, dass es bisher keine dauerhaften Lösungsvorschläge gebe, obwohl die Gefahr von vielen europäischen Regierungen erkannt worden sei. "Obviously, the only solution for this problem is that Europe has to establish stability in the destabilized regions from where the refugees are arriving, so that people may find it satisfying to stay in their own countries. How to do this? Do the European countries have the necessary will and ability to enforce peace and stability in the disturbed regions? Perhaps, the European countries can appeal to the United Nations to interfere, by organizing an international peace keeping force to enforce peace in the disturbed regions, with European countries financially and technically supporting such efforts. The ultimate threat is that the demography of Europe may change sooner or later, perhaps sooner than later. The change of demography will lead to change in the religious composition, a change in the value systems that Europe has adopted so far and may even lead to a disturbance of peace. This will lead to future developments with far-reaching implications that should make the citizens of Europe lose their sleep now. The recent protests in Germany by locals should be seen as indicating the concern of the people about the grave warning for the future."

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"Islamic State’s Appeal In Malaysia"


Nach dem Terroranschlag von IS-Anhängern in Indonesien berichtet Murray Hunter über die zunehmende Sorge, dass sich die Ideologie der Terrormiliz auch im benachbarten Malaysia ausbreiten könnte. "According to a report by the Rajaratnam School of International Studies, there are about 450 Indonesians and Malaysians, including women and children in Iraq and Syria today. Islamic State has a special unit in Syria called Katibah Nusantara that is made up of Indonesian and Malay speaking fighters and their families. There are great fears that members of this group will return to Malaysia to carry out jihadist activities at home within the near future. This should not be a surprise, as the Islamic narrative within Malaysia has been edging towards a more fundamentalist stance over the last two decades, since UMNO and PAS began competing against each other to show the Malay heartland that they are more Islamic than the other. According to a recent Pew Research Centre study on attitudes towards ISIS, 12% of Malaysia’s Muslims are supportive of the group."

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"Morocco And The Arab Spring: A Crisis Averted?"


Malik Ibrahim erläutert, wie das Königreich Marokko in den Jahren des Arabischen Frühlings auf Proteste der eigenen Bevölkerung reagiert und damit eine politische "Implosion" verhindert habe. Viele der von König Mohammed versprochenen Reformen seien zwar bis heute nicht umgesetzt worden, aktuell fürchte die Bevölkerung allerdings vor allem Instabilität und Gewalt wie in anderen Ländern der Region. "Nearly five years after those demonstrations, neither the palace nor the elected government have pushed forward with a fundamental restructuring of the balance of power within the state. While greater commitments to human rights norms and official accountability were made, activists point out they have yet to be put into practice. Nevertheless, Morocco’s limited steps forward are a far cry from the implosion of other states in the region, and today’s Moroccan public may well fear instability and violence abroad far more than at home."

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"Fixing Fragile States: A Country-Based Framework"


Seth Kaplan untersucht in dieser Studie, wie fragile bzw. gescheiterte Staaten, die eine direkte Bedrohung der internationalen Sicherheit darstellen, durch die internationale Gemeinschaft gestützt werden könnten. "The New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States, an agreement forged between a set of fragile states and their international partners in 2011, holds much promise. Designed to improve how both governments and aid agencies approach the problems these countries face, as well as to improve cooperation between them, the New Deal focuses efforts on five Peacebuilding and Statebuilding Goals (PSGs). In contrast to past efforts, these prioritise issues that are much more likely to reduce fragility. (...) Some issues will lend themselves more easily to a solution (e.g. security, which affects everyone), while others will not (e.g. equity of institutions, which may hurt some while helping others). Sometimes only interim or partial solutions will be possible. Every situation is different: no fixed formula or method of prioritisation will work everywhere. While some countries will have substantial obstacles to reform, the current success of countries/regions such as Malaysia, Northern Ireland, Indonesia and South Africa despite their histories of conflict shows what is possible."

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"Indonesia Fighting An Uphill Battle Against Islamic State"


Siktus Harson berichtet, dass sich bis zu 800 Indonesier dem "Islamischen Staat" in Syrien angeschlossen hätten. Die Terrormiliz sei ohne Zweifel im größten muslimischen Land der Welt aktiv, auch wenn sie dort bisher nicht durch Terroranschläge hervorgetreten sei. "Unlike the IS-influenced bombing of a Shia festival in Bangladesh or the beheading of a Malaysian national in the Philippines, the IS group in Indonesia at this stage has not shown off its power. But one thing for certain is is that Indonesia could be sitting on a time bomb. (...) Terrorism expert Sidney Jones warned that although the number of IS-affiliated individuals in Indonesia is relatively small and have not carried out any significant activities, they have the potential to breed new jihadists and re-activate a terrorism seed that is still alive in Indonesia. Such a warning is becoming more relevant considering that 10 million Indonesians favor the IS cause, according to a recent Pew Research Poll survey released in November."

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"The Islamization Of Thailand"


Murray Hunter berichtet, dass die Integration von Muslimen in die thailändische Gesellschaft in den letzten Jahren spürbar vorangeschritten sei. Zugleich sei eine zunehmende Islamisierung des öffentlichen Lebens zu beobachten. "Military rule tended to repress the Muslims in the South for some years, where Thai authorities liked to scapegoat and blame all Muslims for the troubles in the south. However Royal patronage of Islam due to the insurgency has given Islam much more exposure. The image of a Muslim as a dark skinned Southern 'khaeg' has radically changed in Thailand. Consequently there is now much less employment discrimination against Muslims today and a number of Muslims have held high offices in government, police, and the military. (...) The Islamization of Thailand is being pushed through demographic changes. Muslim parents are having more children than their non-Muslim counterparts today in Thailand, and this is shifting the population balance towards a higher percentage of Muslims. This is particularly so in the rural areas of the 'deep south'. To some extent this appears to be under the official radar. However some websites now report the Muslim population in Thailand to be as high as 10%."

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"Japan’s Expanding Military Role: A Stabilising Factor"


Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan von der Observer Research Foundation in Delhi meint, dass das neue japanische Sicherheitsgesetz, das künftige Auslandseinsätze des japanischen Militärs ermöglichen soll, zu einem stabilisierenden Faktor in Ostasien werden könnte. "In the face of an aggressive China and a belligerent North Korea, Japan has been compelled to shed its unnaturally and purely pacifist posture and develop capabilities that are in tune with the new realities. The legislation is also symbolic, indicating the Japanese willingness to take responsibility for maintaining its own security. A militarily capable Japan not restricted by its constitution could therefore potentially become a stabilizing factor in the regional context."

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"Militia Abuses Mar Fight Against Islamic State, Says HRW"


Die Organisation Human Rights Watch hat neue Belege vorgelegt, die zu bestätigen scheinen, dass schiitische Milizen bei ihrem Kampf gegen den IS im Irak selbst zahlreiche Racheakte und Menschenrechtsverletzungen begehen. "The 60-page report, 'Ruinous Aftermath: Militia Abuses Following Iraq’s Recapture of Tikrit,' uses satellite imagery to corroborate accounts of witnesses that the damage to homes and shops in Tikrit, and the towns of al-Bu ‘Ajil, al-Alam, and al-Dur covered entire neighborhoods. (...) 'Iraqi authorities need to discipline and hold accountable the out-of-control militias laying waste to Sunni homes and shops after driving ISIS out,' said Joe Stork, deputy Middle East director. 'Abusive militias and their commanders acting with impunity undermine the campaign against ISIS and put all civilians at greater risk.'"

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"Is Yemen Europe’s Next Migration Crisis?"


Der Krieg und die resultierende humanitäre Krise in Jemen könnten zu einer neuen Flüchtlingswelle in Europa führen, warnen Almigdad Mojalli und Joe Dyke. "Within the country, 1.5 million people have had to flee their homes. The head of the international Red Cross said the intensity of the conflict in just five months had left Yemen looking like Syria after five years. (...) Will Yemenis, then, become the next wave of migrants heading for Europe’s shores? The short answer is probably not yet. (...) Abiy Worku, from the Norwegian Refugee Council, said he was worried about the level of desperation. 'The reason why people are not moving is because they can’t. If there were safe routes, they definitely would,' he said, adding that once a few more Yemenis made it to Europe the floodgates might open."

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"Syrians Abroad: The Challenges Faced By Jordan And Its Refugees"


Adam Leake erinnert daran, dass die Nachbarländer Syriens bereits seit Jahren mit den Folgen der Einwanderung von geschätzten vier Millionen syrischen Flüchtlingen umgehen müssen. In Jordanien betrage der Anteil der Flüchtlinge an der Gesamtbevölkerung mittlerweile etwa 10 Prozent. "Of the total number of refugees, it is estimated by the government that 85 per cent live outside purpose-built refugee camps. This creates its own problems. Many cities and towns in Jordan are already struggling with a scarcity of water, limited employment opportunities and access to health and education services, and the shortage of adequate housing. As the population grows with the addition of refugees, the pressure on resources and city infrastructures is reaching breaking point. Amid such conditions, it is feared that tensions between the Jordanian host and Syrian refugee communities may escalate."

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"China’s Worst Nightmare: The US Oil Weapon"


Zhang TingBing vom Zhonghua Yuan Institute zufolge fürchtet China, dass die USA im aktuellen sicherheitspolitischen Konkurrenzkampf die große Abhängigkeit Pekings von Ölimporten aus dem Nahen Osten ins Spiel bringen könnte. "Currently, China imports 55% of its oil, almost half of which sails from countries in the Persian Gulf, and which accounts for 5.3 million barrels per day and is around 75% of Saudi Arabia’s production. (...) Meanwhile, the US is inching towards energy independence. (...) With this newly acquired oil might, the US could trick Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz without any economic damage for the US, but which would strike a severe blow to China’s fragile economy. Under such a scenario, the US Congress could reject the Iran nuclear deal and the US could give the nod to an Israeli air strike against Tehran’s nuclear facilities. (...) Under such a scenario, China would be forced to succumb to the might of the US’ oil weapon to save itself from a political, economic and social collapse."

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"Comparing Western And African Democracy: Challenges And Opportunities"


Tendaishe Tlou erklärt in seiner vergleichenden Analyse für die Organisation TransConflict, warum er den Versuch, das westliche Demokratiemodell in Afrika umzusetzen, für untauglich hält. "The feasibility of democracy in Africa is as complex as the continent’s challenges and prospects. Democracy itself is a foreign ideology, based on foreign culture and beliefs. Its applicability in Africa is therefore problematic. The colonial legacy itself created an imbalance within African society in social, cultural and economic terms, creating new challenges to democratization. Though the donor community may try to condition their aid, it has proven unsuccessful because of double standards and the tendency to look East for unconditional aid and investment. A Western type of democracy will therefore be blended with an African democracy or Africa will create its own democracy based on African culture and beliefs."

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"Tensions Returns To Korean Peninsula"


Der indische Asienexperte Rajaram Panda hofft, dass die aktuellen Spannungen zwischen Nord- und Südkorea wie in früheren Fällen rechtzeitig beigelegt werden können. Keine der beiden Seiten würde von einem offenen militärischen Konflikt profitieren, allerdings bestehe das Risiko einer unbeabsichtigten Eskalation. "(...) any exchange of fire or provocation involving direct military contact between the two Koreas has the potential for escalation into a wider conflict, whether or not this is the intended outcome. The DMZ area is the most vulnerable where escalation could occur. (...) units at the DMZ are often in visual contact with both allies and enemies. Moreover, forces from either side are concentrated in the DMZ area and always in a high level of alertness. This means an incident could inadvertently result in a chain reaction with scope for escalation at a bigger scale. (...) either side ought to exercise extreme restraint and not to allow an incident to escalate into open conflict. That would require matured leadership, strict discipline, strong command and control, and clear rules of engagement in the military sides on both sides."

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"Defining And Regulating The Weaponization Of Space"


David C. DeFrieze berichtet über internationale Bemühungen, die Entwicklung von Waffensystemen im Weltraum zu regulieren. "Space is an international common and is thus easier to protect through international cooperation. Since the beginnings of humanity’s venture into space, the international community has made attempts to define and regulate the placement and use of weapons there, but with only limited success. This article discusses the international interest in controlling the weaponization of space and prior attempts to define and regulate it. (...) It then offers an approach to better achieve the international cooperation needed to meet global concerns over space weapons."

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"Cameroon Pays High Price For Joining Boko Haram Fight"


Monde Kingsley Nfor berichtet über die Folgen der Entscheidung Kameruns, der regionalen Allianz gegen die Boko Haram beizutreten. "Five suicide bombings in just 13 days in the Far North Region, all blamed on Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram, have made people jittery. Thousands of troops have been sent north by the government in distant Yaoundé and draconian security measures have come into force across much of the country."

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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