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Eurasia Review


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28.06.2015

"NATO Hypes Russia Threat While Members Reduce Military Spending"

http://www.eurasiareview.com/28062015-nato-hypes-russia-threat-while-members-reduce-military-spending-ope
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Daniel McAdams stellt fest, dass viele NATO-Länder ihre Verteidigungshaushalte trotz der lauten Warnungen der NATO-Führung vor der russischen Bedrohung weiter gekürzt hätten. "NATO member countries — particularly those most geographically vulnerable to the claimed Russian aggression — are not only not ramping up military spending, but in some cases are actually cutting their budgets. (...) Even shrill Lithuania, which regularly claims that Russia is about to invade, cannot interest its citizens in signing up to fight for their country. The Baltic nation has been forced to re-introduce conscription to force Lithuanians to augment its miniscule 15,000 person armed forces. (...) Does this look like a Europe terrified by Russian aggression and facing an existential threat because of it? Would any government that truly believes it is about to be attacked by an aggressive foreign power actually reduce defense spending? Would any citizenry facing down invasion and occupation avoid military service like the plague?"

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10.06.2015

"The Rise Of UNCLOS And 21st Century Evil"

http://www.eurasiareview.com/10062015-the-rise-of-unclos-and-21st-century-evil-oped/

Mohammed Mussa beschreibt in seinem informativen Beitrag die Entstehung und heutige Wirkungsweise des internationalen Seerechtsübereinkommens, das 1982 als United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) beschlossen wurde. "Most scholars predict that 21st century will be the century in which all UNCLOS disputes will be cleared and successfully implemented, although there are 166 countries which has signed this convention, yet all those who have not signed can accept it."

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17.05.2015

"Iran’s Foreign Policy – Analysis"

http://www.eurasiareview.com/17052015-irans-foreign-policy-analysis/

Kenneth Katzman präsentiert in seinem umfassenden Bericht für den Congressional Research Service (CRS) des US-Kongresses einen Überblick über Grundlagen und Hintergründe der heutigen Außenpolitik Irans. "The report analyzes Iranian foreign policy as a whole and by region. The regional analysis discusses those countries where Iranian policy is of U.S. concern. The report contains some specific information on Iran’s relations with these countries, but refers to other CRS reports for more detail, particularly on the views of individual countries towards Iran. The report also makes reference to Iran’s efforts to utilize its ties to various countries to try to mitigate the effects of U.S. sanctions. This report does not examine Iran’s broader policy toward the United States, but identifies Iran’s apparent perception of a threat from the United States as a constant theme that affects Iran’s policy in virtually all regions of the world."

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28.03.2015

"Syrian Rebels Capture Idlib"

http://www.eurasiareview.com/28032015-syrian-rebels-capture-idlib-analysis/

Joshua Landis analysiert die möglichen Folgen der Einnahme der Stadt Idlib durch die syrischen Rebellen. Von den 13 syrischen Provinzhauptstädten sei es nach Raqqa die zweite, die in die Hände der Aufständischen falle. Die militärische Führungsrolle radikalislamischer Fraktionen könnte dem internationalen Ansehen der Rebellen weiter schaden. "This will be a serious problem for the rebels in the coming weeks and months. If Idlib becomes the scene of public floggings and streetside executions of 'immoral' women, such as the Nusra Front has committed elsewhere in Idlib Province, or if it collapses into a turf war between rival groups, it would not only weaken more moderate rebel factions – it would also provide Bashar al-Assad with an opportunity to turn military defeat into political gain."

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05.02.2015

"Dangerous Nuclear War Of Words Between NATO And Russia"

http://www.eurasiareview.com/05022015-dangerous-nuclear-war-words-nato-russia-analysis/

Der Konflikt in der Ukraine werde sowohl von Russland als auch von den USA genutzt, um eine Modernisierung der eigenen Atomwaffenarsenale zu rechtfertigen, schreibt Julio Godoy. "(...) to quote Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, and one of the most distinguished peace researchers in Russia: 'The political crisis that erupted in Ukraine in early 2014 has ended the period in Russian-Western relations that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. The crisis marks the end of a generally cooperative phase in those relations (...). Instead, the Ukraine crisis has opened a new period of heightened rivalry, even confrontation, between former Cold War adversaries.' They are in fact more than armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons."

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26.01.2015

"Interplay Between Terrorism, Insurgency And Civil War In Middle East"

http://www.eurasiareview.com/26012015-interplay-terrorism-insurgency-civil-war-middle-east-analysis/

Assaf Moghadam vom International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) im israelischen Herzliya stellt in dieser Analyse für das spanische Elcano Royal Institute fest, dass Terrororganisationen in den bürgerkriegsähnlichen Aufständen im Nahen Osten kaum noch von Guerillagruppen zu unterscheiden seien. "Terrorist groups are generally distinguished from guerrilla organisations, but this distinction is gradually disappearing as a growing number of terrorist groups adopt guerrilla tactics. This study first offers some empirical evidence in support of this claim and then argues that in light of the growing divergence between terrorist and guerrilla organisations, most terrorist groups are better conceptualised as insurgent organisations. Such an approach can help analysts adopt a greater nuance in examining terrorist groups, leading to improved policies to stem the evolving threat of terrorism."

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30.11.2014

"Arab Spring Windfall For Transnational Crime"

http://www.eurasiareview.com/30112014-arab-spring-windfall-transnational-crime-analysis/

Abseits der politischen Umwälzungen habe der Arabische Frühling auch einen gefährlichen Aufschwung transnationaler krimineller Netzwerke ausgelöst, schreibt Neil Thompson. "In many places, the revolution promised by the Arab Spring has failed or ended half-way. The resulting toxic combination of broken economic and political systems, geographical proximity to lucrative European black markets, and a youthful and often traumatized population is an open invitation for criminal groups to fill the vacuum of state authority. Similar circumstances produced generational crime waves of extraordinary virulence in the former Soviet Union (FSU) and Latin America, which those areas are still coping with today. It is quite possible that the Middle East is poised to follow in their footsteps."

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07.10.2014

"Will Ukraine Commit Economic Suicide?"

http://www.eurasiareview.com/07102014-will-ukraine-commit-economic-suicide-analysis/

Die ukrainische Regierung könnte auf Druck westlicher Kreditgeber einen neuen Steuersatz von 55% für private Gasproduzenten beschließen und damit möglicherweise "wirtschaftlichen Selbstmord" begehen, schreibt James Stafford. "The Oct. 14 budget vote — which is already a month late — is a major condition for Ukraine’s next credit tranche from the European Union, but if the 2015 budget goes through as proposed, it will decimate independent gas production, remove any potential for Ukrainian energy independence and deal a further blow to the already struggling economy. (...) With a gas tax on private producers, Russia wins. 'It’s the economy, not the Russian army, that has brought Ukraine close to the brink,' notes Business Insider’s Walter Kurtz. Beyond this, there will be reverberations across sectors, as the gas tax scares away foreign direct investment in general."

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05.10.2014

"Privacy Through Fragmentation?"

http://www.eurasiareview.com/05102014-privacy-fragmentation-analysis/

Die Bemühungen vieler Staaten zur Stärkung der Internetrechte ihrer Bürger könnten in Verbindung mit der Durchsetzung von Urheberrechten zu einer baldigen Fragmentierung des Internets führen, schreibt Anahita Mathai von der Observer Research Foundation. "Long before Snowden, it was suggested that the best way forward was to abandon 'the Internet' and embrace multiple internets – essentially privatising networks, allowing customisation and different types of internet experiences. The splintering of the Internet is one possible consequence of viewing Internet rights through the prism of private property. As mentioned earlier, it was the push to enforce copyright that led to certain location-based restrictions. It is not such a stretch to imagine privacy and personal data being protected in the same way, with rights being enforced on such a basis."

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21.07.2014

"On 'Human Shielding' In Gaza"

http://www.eurasiareview.com/21072014-human-shielding-gaza-oped/

Neve Gordon und Nicola Perugini analysieren die Hintergründe des israelischen Arguments, dass der Tod palästinensischer Zivilisten grundsätzlich der Hamas zuzuschreiben sei. Israel werfe der Hamas vor, Zivilisten als menschliche Schutzschilde zu missbrauchen und rechtfertige damit seine Angriffe auf Wohnhäuser und Schulen. "In contemporary asymmetric urban wars, accusing the enemy of using human shields helps validate the claim that the death of 'untargeted civilians' is merely collateral damage. When all civilians are potential human shields, when each and every civilian can become a hostage of the enemy, then all enemy civilians become killable. (...) The crux of the matter is that in the context of contemporary asymmetric warfare, the weak do not have many options. When there are no bomb shelters, people remain at home during extensive bombardment. And if, like in the case of the Palestinians in Gaza, fleeing is not an option – because all exits from the strip have been closed, or because the neighbour’s house is under the exact same threat as one’s own, or because one is already a refugee and does not want to become a refugee anew – staying put, which the high-tech states term 'illegal human shields,' constitutes a form of resistance."

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02.06.2014

"Moscow Blocks Military Functions Of US GPS Stations On Russian Soil"

http://www.eurasiareview.com/02062014-moscow-blocks-military-functions-us-gps-stations-russian-soil/

Aufgrund der westlichen Sanktionen hat die Regierung in Moskau die militärisch nutzbaren Funktionen der russischen Standorte des Navigationssatellitensystems GPS blockiert. Am 1. September könnten die GPS-Stationen vollständig abgebaut werden, sollten sich Russland und die USA nicht auf amerikanische Standorte für das russische Navigationssatellitensystem Glonass einigen. "Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin (...) warned earlier this week that Russia would stop the operations of these GPS stations on June 1 and might start dismantling them from September 1 as a response to Washington’s anti-Russia sanctions and its refusal to plant Glonass ground base stations on the U.S. territory. Glonass is the Russian equivalent of GPS, which is designed for both military and civilian use."

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14.04.2014

"A Dove Heads Up Hawkish NATO"

http://www.eurasiareview.com/14042014-a-dove-heads-up-hawkish-nato-oped/

Ian Davis stellt mit dem früheren norwegischen Premierminister Jens Stoltenberg den nächsten NATO-Generalsekretär vor, der im Gegensatz zum aktuellen Amtsinhaber Anders Fogh Rasmussen als "Taube" eingeschätzt werde. "The current secretary general has adopted a hawkish response to the burgeoning confrontation with Russia. But when the alliance seeks to mend relations with Moscow — as it surely must at some point — Stoltenberg may be an invaluable mediating voice. As a former prime minister, he has strong international networks, well-developed skills as an international negotiator, and friendly ties with Moscow. For instance, he negotiated a deal with Russia in 2010 that ended a four-decade Russia-Norwegian dispute over their Arctic maritime borders and thereby built a friendship with then-president Dmitry Medvedev."

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08.01.2014

"Sochi Olympics And Terrorism In Russia"

http://www.eurasiareview.com/08012014-sochi-olympics-terrorism-russia-analysis/

Kerim Has vom USAK Center for Eurasian Studies analysiert die Hintergründe der Terroranschläge in Russland, die Sicherheitsbefürchtungen für die anstehenden Olympischen Spiele in Sotschi ausgelöst haben. "(...) it is a hopeful sign that discussions about whom is served and how by attacks that justify extreme security measures are becoming more popular not just in the Russian-dominated parts of the country such as Moscow and western Russia, but also in the North Caucasus. Furthermore, considering that economic conditions are deteriorating, poverty is already widespread, overall education levels are low and therefore a perception of 'being cheated as a people' is becoming commonplace in the North Caucasian republics, it would be useful to underline Russia’s need to give as much importance to 'soft power' instruments as it does to those of 'hard power' if it is to avoid a calamity."

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