US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

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"Army Chief Confirms US Will Hand off ISIS Fight in Syria"

Wenige Stunden nach dem IS-Anschlag in Manbij habe mit Mark Milley zum ersten Mal ein hochrangiger US-General die Abzugspläne der USA für Syrien bestätigt, berichtet Patrick Tucker. "'We are determined to finish that off and then hand the battle off to our indigenous partners,' Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said on Wednesday. His comments came hours after a suicide bomber killed four people in Manbij, Syria, including two U.S. troops, a Defense Department civilian, and one contractor. Three more were injured in the blast, for which ISIS declared responsibility. Milley did not say when U.S. troops would leave Syria, but his characterization suggests a change of one mission goal for the Americans, who until Trump’s tweet last December were intending to remain in country until UN-brokered talks reached a peace deal in Geneva."

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"Trump’s Wall Fixation Is Impeding Border Security"

David Fidler meint, dass US-Präsident Trump mit seinem Bestehen auf der Errichtung einer Mauer an der Grenze zu Mexiko die modernen Möglichkeiten zur Sicherung nationaler Grenzen vernachlässige und dem Grenzschutz so eher schade. "The president’s obsession that only more concrete slabs or steel slats can better secure the U.S. southern border fundamentally misunderstands what walls have always been. This failure goes deeper than his inability to accept the evidence that no security or humanitarian crisis exists along the border with Mexico. Worse, the wall debate is preventing policymakers from deliberating effectively on how to re-calibrate the utilization of personnel, technology, and physical barriers for improved border security. (...) The course on which the president insists will, if taken, make border patrol agents and advanced technologies subservient to the physical barrier, rather than having agents, technologies, and barriers configured, networked, and deployed in the most effective ways to serve the various national interests and ideals touched by border security.“

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"Moscow’s Little-Noticed Islamic-Outreach Effort"

Hassan Hassan berichtet, dass Russland ein international bisher kaum beachtetes Programm zur Förderung eines moderaten Islams auf den Weg gebracht habe. Dabei bemühe sich Moskau um eine enge Kooperation mit arabischen Staaten, was dort positiv aufgenommen worden sei. "The Russian emissary for this effort is Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Republic. For Kadyrov, opposition to Islamic extremism is an extension of the war in Chechnya, in which he fought on behalf of Moscow against the separatist Chechen movement. (...) Over the summer, Kadyrov was welcomed like royalty in Saudi Arabia. Saudi authorities let him inside Prophet Mohammed’s room, which is closed to all but special guests. (...) Russia’s Islamic outreach is driven by several factors, first among them domestic worries. Muslims constitute nearly 15 percent of the Russian population, and Moscow fought two religious and nationalist insurrections in the Muslim-majority North Caucasus region. The rise of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda in Syria increased Moscow’s concerns about an extremist threat, especially given the sizable role of jihadis from North Caucasus within the two groups."

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"Something We Can Agree On: Close Some Overseas Bases"

Miriam Pemberton vom Institute for Policy Studies gehört zu den Unterzeichnern eines offenen Briefs an den US-Senat, in dem eine überparteiliche Gruppe von Sicherheitsexperten die Reduzierung der Zahl der internationalen US-Militärstützpunkte fordert. "Our group, which calls itself the Overseas Bases Realignment and Closure Coalition, or OBRACC, finds agreement from the right, left, and center that doing so would be an important step toward making the United States and the world safer and more prosperous. (...) The strategy of maintaining U.S. military dominance with a network of about 800 military bases spread across the globe has left us seriously overstretched. It has diverted our resources from our domestic needs, as well as from constructive, non-military forms of global engagement. This strategy has created nationalistic resentments, and even spurs to terrorism, in places where U.S. bases sit. Nobody likes to be occupied. (...) The damage to our national standing and reputation from our empire of bases also extends to the environmental damage to local communities caused by toxic leaks, accidents, and the dumping of hazardous materials. (...) All of these factors argue for shrinking America’s military footprint around the world."

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"Space Force Actually May Be Bargain, New Cost Estimate Says"

Die von US-Präsident Trump geforderte Weltraumarmee würde einer neuen Schätzung zufolge weitaus weniger kosten als bisher angenommen, da es sich im Wesentlichen um eine Neuorganisation bestehender Militärstrukturen handeln würde. "Space Force — the new branch of the U.S. military desired by President Trump — could cost taxpayers as much as $21.5 billion per year, but only $550 million of that would be new money, according to a budget analyst. The estimate from Washington’s resident defense spending guru Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argues that creating a Space Force, large or small, amounts to nothing more than a reorganization in which money would be transferred out of the Air Force, Army and Navy into the new military service."

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"Russia Has Started to Train Its Entire Military to Fight Drones"

Das russische Militär hat Patrick Tucker zufolge aus einem Drohnenangriff auf einen russischen Militärstützpunkt in Syrien Konsequenzen gezogen und das umfassende Training entsprechender Abwehrmaßnahmen angeordnet. "While the U.S. military and others have developed tactics, techniques, and procedures to fight off drones, Russia is the first country to implement such training on such a wide scale. The move follows a January attack by anti-Assad forces on a Russian military base in Syria, using ten small drones modified to carry explosives. Russian military officials frequently cite attacks by armed consumer drones flown by 'terrorist' groups, said Samuel Bendett, a researcher at the CNA Corporation and a fellow in Russia Studies at the American Foreign Policy Council. 'This threat was judged to be great enough to introduce training to counter such small drones with small fires across so many Russian services – airborne troops, marines and land formations. The training will concern everyone in uniform - from a cook, medic and logistician to front-line forces,' Bendett said."

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"China Is No Reason to Abandon the INF"

Zac Brown hält das Argument, dass der INF-Vertrag eine angemessene amerikanische Reaktion auf das chinesische Raketenprogramm verhindere, nicht für überzeugend. Eine Stationierung von landgestützten Mittelstreckenraketen im Pazifik wäre seiner Ansicht nach "taktisch ineffektiv und strategisch destabilisierend". "First, virtually no allies would be willing to host new American ground-based missiles aimed at China. Japan has come out in defense of the INF Treaty, calling a U.S. withdrawal 'undesirable,' while Australian officials have indicated they have low thresholds for U.S. actions they perceive as needlessly provoking Beijing. Moreover, neither country is likely to view Taiwan as a core security interest in the same way as Washington. (...) This leaves the tiny island of Guam — nearly 2,000 miles from China — as the only realistic base for ground-launched missiles, an option which poses severe challenges for both survivability and military utility. (...) Guam is already a high-value target for Beijing, and any new missile deployment would only raise the incentives strike the island quickly in a fight. Moreover, it’s not completely obvious what this new force would do. (...) Simply put, there’s no need for ground-based, intermediate-range missiles when we have those aplenty in the air and at sea, all of which would be able to get in closer to China before launching."

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"John Bolton Keeps Citing This 2002 Pact as an Arms-Control Model. It’s Really Not."

Nach dem Ende des INF-Vertrags würde es mit dem "New START"-Abkommen nur noch einen Abrüstungsvertrag geben, der die Atomwaffenarsenale der USA und Russlands limitiert, schreibt Steven Pifer von der Brookings Institution. Präsident Trump und sein Sicherheitsberater Bolton hätten bereits angedeutet, dass sie auch diesen Vertrag nicht besonders schätzen. Bolton habe den 2002 unterzeichneten "SORT"-Vertrag als alternatives Modell vorgeschlagen. "That model, however, will go nowhere. The Russians would not agree. Moreover, it is not serious arms control. (...) SORT was short, fitting neatly on two pages. One reason for its brevity: it contained no agreed definitions, no counting rules, and no monitoring measures. (In contrast, START I and New START each ran hundreds of pages in length.) The Russians hoped for more, but they desperately wanted an agreement. Offered SORT essentially on a take-it-or-leave-it basis, Mr. Putin took it. Could the United States negotiate something like SORT with Russia today? No."

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"Russia, US Offer Competing Vision of Cyber Norms to the UN"

Die USA und Russland haben Alex Grigsby zufolge bei der UN unterschiedliche Modelle zur Schaffung internationaler Cyber-Normen vorgelegt. "I’m not a UN process expert, so it’s hard to say how this will play out. But if I were a betting man, I’d put my money on the U.S. approach coming out on top. As an institution, the United Nations prefers incrementalism over radical change. That makes it much harder for Russia, China and the rest of the SCO members to drum up support for a twenty-five paragraph code of conduct that contains vague language mostly unfamiliar to many states. By contrast, the U.S. resolution has more similarities to Russia’s previous resolutions, an advantage given that they will be familiar to diplomats at the UN who prefer sticking to previously agreed text. No matter what happens as diplomats haggle over the particulars of the resolution, expect a new GGE [UN Group of Governmental Experts] next year."

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"How to Keep a Cyberattack from Turning into Nuclear War? Keep Talking"

Ankit Panda hält die Möglichkeit, dass ein Cyberangriff auf kritische Infrastrukturen in den USA mit einem Atomangriff beantwortet werden könnte, angesichts der Änderungen in der Nuklearstrategie der US-Regierung für durchaus realistisch. "One danger that merits special attention is the possibility of a North Korean cyberattack escalating out of control – one that sparks an American counterstrike using conventional weapons so intense that Pyongyang responds with an attempted nuclear missile attack on the United States. Or, a scenario where a North Korean cyberattack hits an American target so vital that it elicits an American nuclear missile strike in return. It’s not fantasy. These dynamics are particularly salient given certain policy changes introduced by the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review, or NPR. (...) The Trump administration never should have specified the 'extreme circumstances' that might lead to the United States considering nuclear use. (...) Before a miscalculation or provocation has a chance to test the Trump NPR’s boundaries, U.S. officials in their ongoing talks with North Koreans should make their intentions on nuclear weapons and cyberattacks crystal clear."

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"Nothing About Trashing the INF Treaty Makes the US Safer"

Michael Krepon hält die Drohung von US-Präsident Trump, den INF-Vertrag mit Russland aufzukündigen, sowohl aus diplomatischer als auch aus strategischer Sicht nicht für überzeugend. Die vorgetragenen Vertragsverletzungen Russlands könnten seiner Ansicht nach mit effektiven Gegenmaßnahmen innerhalb des Abkommens beantwortet werden. "There are effective treaty-compliant counters to the Russian violation by means of air-delivered and sea-based capabilities that the Pentagon is already pursuing. The White House could also push Vladimir Putin to return to treaty compliance by linking American restraint on deploying more missile defenses in Europe to the removal of Russia’s noncompliant missiles. But neither Trump nor Bolton has demonstrated a fondness for diplomacy or an interest in reaffirming the INF Treaty. This move is about freedom of U.S. action and a deep, abiding distrust of treaties. Trump’s withdrawal from the INF Treaty fits into an 'America First' strategy that undermines diplomatic ties. That’s the take-away by U.S. friends and allies — along with a foreboding sense of an intensified nuclear competition."

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"US Military Leaders Keep Quiet on Saudi Arabia Amid Khashoggi Outrage"

Kevin Baron bezweifelt, dass das Pentagon seine engen Beziehungen zu Saudi-Arabien aufgrund der Affäre um den verschwundenen Journalisten Jamal Khashoggi in Frage stellen wird. Das US-Militär habe bisher in seinen Äußerungen immer wieder die strategische Bedeutung des Bündnispartners hervorgehoben. "Is the Saudi partnership still a matter of necessity? Should it be? That’s not likely the question Mattis and Dunford are asking for the near term. For them, the answer is yes. But for the long term, it’s also question for Pompeo and Trump. It’s a question of whether 'Saudi interests' under bin Salman still align with American interests, or just with American military and intelligence interests. (...) This week, national security press has been inundated with commentaries asking if the U.S.-Saudi relationship has been worth the cost. At the Pentagon, no matter the outcome of the Pompeo fact-finding trip or the Khashoggi investigation, the answer is most likely going to be a resounding yes."

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"China’s Moon Missions Could Threaten US Satellites: Pentagon"

Das Pentagon fürchtet Patrick Tucker zufolge, dass sich das chinesische Mondprogramm künftig zu einer ernsten Bedrohung für amerikanische Satelliten entwickeln könnte. "The Chinese government has said the mission is part of a four-stage plan to build a moon base. 'We hope to start the construction of the [robot-manned] lunar base around 2025 and realize a manned landing on the moon around 2030,' Zhao Xiaojin of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Group told Xinhuanet in March. But [Jeff Gossel, the senior intelligence engineer in the Space and Missile Analysis Group at the Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center,] said putting a satellite at L2 could also enable Chinese attack spacecraft to zoom past the moon — about a quarter-million miles away — and then sneak up on critical U.S. intelligence and communications satellites in geosynchronous orbit, just 28,300 miles up — as occurred in the 2011 apocalypse-themed film 'Melancholia.'"

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"Police-Grade Surveillance Technology Comes to the Playground"

Schulen in den USA werden aus Furcht vor neuen Amokläufen immer häufiger mit Sicherheits- und Überwachungssystemen ausgerüstet, die üblicherweise von der Polizei eingesetzt werden, berichtet Sydney Fussell. Ethische Fragen zum Einsatz dieser Sicherheitsmaßnahmen rücken dabei auch auf Seiten der Schüler weitgehend in den Hintergrund. "Rather than seeing surveillance technology, broadly, or face recognition, specifically, as invasive or disruptive to the learning environment, he has noticed the opposite: Students accept the presence of the tech without question. 'As our kids get older, they’ve been through all that before,' [Greg Bronson, a Lockport native and the president of the local teachers’ union,] says, referring to a number of emergency drills mandated by the state. Lockport students run school-shooting drills almost monthly. Bronson hypothesizes that, soon enough, face recognition and other technologies will just become part of the architecture of the modern school day, much the same as the drills. 'If anything,' he said, 'the bigger issue is getting them to take it seriously, because they have become so routine.'"

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"Winning 'Like War': A Conversation about Social Media and Conflict with Peter Singer"

Patrick Tucker hat sich ausführlich mit Peter W. Singer über dessen neues Buch "Like War: The Weaponization of Social Media" unterhalten. "A new book looks at how 'likes' and lies are reshaping the nature of war and peace around the globe. We sat down with the author."

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"Two Reasons Not to Build Fort Trump in Today’s Poland"

Die Regierung in Warschau strebt die Errichtung einer ständigen US-Militärbasis in Polen an und möchte den US-Präsidenten durch den vorgeschlagenen Namen "Fort Trump" auf ihre Seite ziehen. Michael Fitzsimmons vom Strategic Studies Institute des U.S. Army War College nennt zwei Gründe, die seiner Ansicht nach gegen diesen Schritt sprechen. "In military terms, its merits are debatable. There are certainly some potential benefits, such as strengthening NATO’s ability to respond to Russian territorial aggression in Northeastern Europe, reassuring Poland and other countries on NATO’s eastern flank of the alliance’s commitment to collective defense, and offering greater efficiency than long-term rotational presence. As to deterrence of Russian aggression, however, the effects of a new U.S. base would be subject to the famous 'security dilemma': the time-worn truth that capabilities one rival builds for defense and deterrence appear provocative to the other rival supposedly being deterred, who then responds in kind. (...) even if Washington determines that the benefits of 'Fort Trump' would outweigh the costs in terms of deterrence and operational capability, there is another crucial but underappreciated security dilemma confronting this policy choice: the imperative to resist the Polish government’s recent turn toward illiberalism."

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"Cognitive Science Helps Explain How We Blunder Into War"

Brian VanDeMark von der U.S. Naval Academy hat in seinem neuen Buch "Road to Disaster" aus der Perspektive der Kognitionswissenschaft untersucht, wie die USA nach 1945 immer tiefer in die Krise des damaligen Indochinas hineingezogen wurden und schließlich den Krieg in Vietnam begannen. "In 1945, Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh wrote to President Truman, thanking him for U.S. assistance in their mutual fight against the Japanese and asking for help against France’s effort to reassert colonial control in Indochina. Truman never got the letter — but there’s little reason to think it would have diverted America from its path to war in Southeast Asia. In his new book, Road to Disaster, U.S. Naval Academy professor Brian VanDeMark explores why. By using the insights of cognitive science to dissect the flawed perceptions and decisions of the Vietnam era, he teaches today’s leaders to spot their own."

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"Washington Won’t Keep Rebuffing Moscow’s Cyber Proposals Forever"

Alex Grigsby erwartet, dass die USA mit Russland trotz der Vorkommnisse während der Präsidentschaftswahlen und anderer Vorbehalte bei der Bekämpfung von Cyberangriffen auf kritische Infrastrukturen zusammenarbeiten werden. Moskau habe ein entsprechendes Angebot zuletzt auf dem Gipfeltreffen in Helsinki unterbreitet und werde dies im Herbst bei der UN wiederholen. "The United States and Russia recognize that despite their significant differences, they have to talk to each other to avoid uncontrolled escalation in cyberspace. That’s why even after the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States kept meeting with Russian cyber experts despite having cut cooperation elsewhere. (...) The most promising opportunity for U.S.-Russia cyber cooperation will come this fall at the United Nations. (...) The United States is unlikely to be enthused at the prospect of another GGE [Group of Governmental Experts on Information Security] process when it would rather spend its time enforcing existing cyber norms instead of talking about creating new ones. Despite these misgivings, it is one of the few options that keeps Moscow and Washington at the bargaining table."

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"Boko Haram’s Deadly Impact"

Einer neuen Studie zufolge sind dem Terror der radikalislamischen Gruppe Boko Haram deutlich mehr Menschen zum Opfer gefallen als bisher angenommen. "The study shows that though Boko Haram’s territorial control is now limited to some small villages and pockets of countryside, a shift in tactics has helped the group stay a threat to millions. It has turned to suicide bombings, which accounted for almost a third of all casualties in the first half of 2018, and has increasingly attacked Muslim places of worship. (...) This new compilation of data is based on an analysis of publicly available data from CFR’s Nigeria Security Tracker (NST) and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), an independent nongovernmental organization based at the University of Sussex. (...) From June 2011 through June 2018, the NST documented 2,021 incidents involving Boko Haram, in which 37,530 people were killed, nearly double the conventionally cited estimate of twenty thousand. Over the same period, ACLED identified 3,346 incidents, in which 34,261 people were killed. Both totals reflect deaths of alleged Boko Haram fighters, government forces, and civilians combined."

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"Trump’s Secret War on Terror"

Präsident Trump habe den Drohnenkrieg der USA gegen mutmaßliche Terroristen "dramatisch" ausgeweitet, berichtet Daniel Rosenthal. Details und Regeln der Operationen würden der Öffentlichkeit und dem Kongress dabei weitgehend vorenthalten. Neben der Tötung möglichst vieler feindlicher Kämpfer sei zudem keine weitergehende Strategie erkennbar. "According to leaks to The New York Times and other outlets, last fall he introduced a new policy that moved responsibility for counterterrorism operations outside traditional war zones to lower-level commanders, and lowered the threshold for such strikes. (Targets are no longer required to pose a 'continuing, imminent threat' to the United States, but rather may be lower-level foot soldiers, and there is purportedly no longer a requirement for 'near certainty' that the target be on-site for strikes.) (...) The narrow objective for drone strikes, of course, is to kill the terrorists who are targeted and, thus, remove them from the battlefield. By that standard, the program may be deemed a success insofar as, according to government-released statistics, the program has resulted in the deaths of over 3,000 combatants. (...) But there has been insufficient attention, both within government and from NGOs, in assessing the broader-view net result of the drone program; said differently, and channeling former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, are we killing more terrorists than we are creating?"

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"Pentagon To Start Creating Space Force — Even Before Congress Approves It"

Das Pentagon hat Marcus Weisgerber zufolge erste Schritte unternommen, um die von US-Präsident Trump geforderte Weltraum-Armee ("Space Force") aufzubauen. Ob es dabei tatsächlich zur Schaffung eines eigenständigen Teils der US-Streitkräfte kommen wird, hängt allerdings vom Kongress ab. "In coming months, Defense Department leaders plan to stand up three of the four components of the new Space Force: a new combatant command for space, a new joint agency to buy satellites for the military, and a new warfighting community that draws space operators from all service branches. These sweeping changes — on par with the past decade’s establishment of cyber forces — are the part the Pentagon can do without lawmakers’ approval. Creating the fourth component — an entirely new branch of the military with services and support functions such as financial management and facilities construction — will require congressional action."

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"The US and Russia Have Plenty of Areas for Cooperation. Let’s Get to Work."

Debra Decker vom Stimson Center nennt einige konkrete Sachgebiete, auf denen die USA und Russland künftig stärker kooperieren könnten. Bei der Organisation der Zusammenarbeit sollte die US-Regierung ihrer Ansicht nach einen Vorschlag Wladimir Putins aufgreifen. "Trump promised that 'representatives from our national security councils will meet to follow up on all of the issues we addressed.' But who? Neither Trump’s heavy-handed National Security Advisor John Bolton nor some of the staff new to the National Security Council and diplomacy are the best choices for leading this work. President Putin — surprised? — has a better suggestion: seek positive 'points of contact' for U.S.-Russian engagement, as he called them (at least in the English translation), assisted by 'an expert council that would include political scientists, prominent diplomats and former military experts from both countries.' Such experts would know the history of Russian-U.S. engagement — the duplicity but also how the two countries can work positively together."

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"Don’t Give Russia the Gift of Extending New START"

Matthew Costlow würde eine Verlängerung des START-Vertrags ohne russische Gegenleistung dagegen als "Geschenk" an Russland betrachten, das nicht leichtfertig vergeben werden sollte. "Prudence (...) dictates waiting until February 2021 to see whether the extension of the New START Treaty remains in the U.S. national interest. (...) This is not to say that President Trump should not pursue risk reduction measures when he meets with President Putin, he should. But extending the New START Treaty now is unnecessary, would reduce future bargaining leverage, and sends a signal of accommodation to President Putin – the opposite of what he needs."

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"A No-Cost, No-Brainer of a Nuclear Deal"

US-Präsident Trump sollte das Gipfeltreffen mit Russlands Präsident Putin nach Ansicht von Joe Cirincione nutzen, um eine Verlängerung des START-Vertrags zu vereinbaren und damit die nukleare Rüstungskontrolle neu zu stärken. "The New START Treaty will expire in 2021. If it does, both nations could bust through the ceiling the accord places on each side’s long-range nuclear forces — the missiles and bombers that can span oceans to deliver nuclear bombs in as little as 30 minutes after launch. For the first time since President Richard Nixon negotiated the SALT Treaty in 1972, there would be no limit to the number or types of strategic weapons Russia and the United States deploy. Worse, Russia and the United States would lose all inspections, tracking and verification of these arsenals, which account for over 92 percent of all the nuclear weapons in the world. (...) With little effort and no cost, Trump can secure five more years of verified limits on Russian forces. It would be the best deal of his presidency so far."

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"For America, More War in Syria Is All Risk, No Reward"

Eine Weiterführung des amerikanischen Militäreinsatzes in Syrien würde nach Ansicht von Bonnie Kristian nicht im amerikanischen Interesse liegen. Die Risiken und die Kosten könnten angesichts der kaum erreichbaren Ziele nicht mehr gerechtfertigt werden. "Whether there was ever anything worthwhile to be gained by U.S. military intervention in Syria’s near-decade of conflict may be subject to debate, but it is increasingly evident there is no good reason to stay there now. In Syria, the United States finds no reward, only risks. It is time to make our exit. The gravest plausible risk, of course, is greatpower conflict with Russia. (...) But this sort of catastrophic escalation is not the only way that continued U.S. intervention in Syria may have unwanted and unintended results. Trump campaigned against the nation-building of past administrations, but the longer the United States stays in Syria and the more changes we effect, the more we will own its eventual reconstruction. (...) The recklessness of keeping U.S. soldiers in harm’s way in Syria is compounded by the fact, often sidestepped by Washington, that there are no vital American interests at stake."

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"An Extraordinarily Expensive Way to Fight ISIS"

William Langewiesche erzählt in dieser Reportage die detaillierte Geschichte eines amerikanischen Bombenangriffs auf 70 Extremisten in Libyen. "The tale of a 2017 bombing raid in the Libyan desert that pitted stealth bombers and 500-pound bombs against 70 ragtag fighters. (...) The Air Force has three types of heavy bombers, any of which could have done the job. The choice of the B-2 was surprising because it is by far the most expensive airplane to fly and maintain, and Libya post-Qaddafi had no air defenses that might require a stealth capability to penetrate. Bombing ignorant gunmen camped out in a desert of a non-country is a far cry from launching an attack against a modern military adversary. But the high cost of the mission was perhaps an attraction by bureaucratic if not military logic — you may lose money if you don’t spend it — or the B-2s might have just needed some work to do. The Air Force says simply that after a formal process of consideration, the B-2 was deemed the appropriate platform."

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"Has Trump Irreversibly Altered the GOP’s Foreign Policy?"

Gerade in Europa hoffen immer noch viele, dass die USA nach der Amtszeit Donald Trumps auf die gewohnten außenpolitischen Pfade zurückkehren werden. Ronald Brownstein erklärt, warum diese Hoffnung enttäuscht werden könnte. Präsident Trump habe einen Konflikt unter den Republikanern wiederaufleben lassen, der bereits in den 1950er Jahren ausgefochten worden sei. Diesmal werde der isolationistische Flügel der Partei den Kampf wohl gewinnen. "(...) the principal Republican divide over international involvement is now demographic. Trump’s insular nationalism resonates powerfully with his core constituency of Republicans without a college degree, a group that is almost entirely white. College-educated Republicans, who are also almost entirely white, are generally more skeptical — though even many of them have grown more suspicious of global engagement. (...) On U.S. alliances, the data paint a similar picture. While more college-educated than non-college-educated Republicans believe NATO is essential, both groups were far more likely than Democrats at either education level to question its value. (...) for now, Trump has demolished Eisenhower’s consensus, and routed the forces of global engagement inside the GOP as Taft never could. The only question is whether Trump’s victory lasts as long as Ike’s did."

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"This Is Bigger Than a Meeting With Kim Jong Un"

Uri Friedman hat sich in Seoul mit dem Korea-Experten John Delury unterhalten, der Donald Trumps Nordkorea-Strategie im neuen internationalen Kontext als angemessen und "mutig" einschätzt. "Delury disagreed with Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the nuclear agreement with Iran, and acknowledged that America’s relations with Iran are even more toxic than its relations with North Korea because Washington and Tehran are on opposing sides of conflicts across the Middle East. Still, he maintained that Obama’s 'complicated, technical' deal may have been 'too focused' on constraining Iran’s nuclear capabilities. 'It wasn’t a deep political settlement,' he explained, whereas 'what I see Trump working on with Kim Jong Un is … a fundamental transformation of the relationship.' And what Trump is facing is nothing less than a new nuclear age, when the strategies that kept the world safe during the Cold War may no longer apply. (...) 'I think Trump gets it,' Delury told me. Fundamental transformation is 'the way to get progress with North Korea.'"

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"What the North Koreans Told Me About Their Plans"

Der Korea-Experte Joel S. Wit hat vor wenigen Jahren an Treffen früherer Mitarbeiter der US-Regierung mit nordkoreanischen Offiziellen teilgenommen. Er schlussfolgert, dass Verhandlungen über einen schrittweisen und langfristig angelegten Prozess zur Denuklearisierung Nordkoreas durchaus Aussichten auf Erfolg hätten. "(...) what they outlined was a step-by-step process of denuclearization accompanied in each phase by U.S. measures of their own. It is entirely different from the 'Libya model' espoused by John Bolton, which involves giving up its program first and only then getting benefits in return. Indeed, the Trump administration doesn’t necessarily endorse Bolton’s view. Susan Thornton, the acting assistant secretary of state in charge of Asia, said last week that it was obvious there would be multiple steps in a long process of denuclearization, and the key issue was what happened first. How those differences over denuclearization are resolved inside the Trump administration, and whether common ground can be found with the North Koreans, will determine the future of the Korean peninsula. The stakes are nothing less than the success or failure of the world’s best current chance to disarm North Korea. The Thornton approach could mean, over the long term, that it really happens. The Bolton approach would assure that it won’t."

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"A Reckoning for Obama’s Foreign-Policy Legacy"

Die Außenpolitik von US-Präsident Trump ist nach Ansicht von Eliot A. Cohen auch eine durchaus verdiente "Abrechnung" mit dem Erbe der Obama-Administration. Viele der außenpolitischen Erfolge Obamas seien durch Dekrete des Weißen Hauses und ohne Einbeziehung des Kongresses erreicht worden. Dieser Makel habe nun ermöglicht, dass die vermeintlichen Errungenschaften Obamas ebenso leicht zurückgenommen werden können. "(...) the veterans and supporters of the Obama administration (...) are learning a hard lesson: that policies constructed by executive order and executive agreement are just as easily blown up by them. (...) Their big foreign-policy achievements are smoking (in one case, poison-gas-reeking) ruins — from the recognition of Cuba to the Iran deal, from the Trans-Pacific Partnership to the Libya intervention, and from the supposed pivot to Asia to the treaty eliminating Syria’s chemical weapons. They deserve their mortification, in part because, while in office, they thought they could treat constitutional requirements and everyone else’s opinions with contempt."

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Hier finden Sie die Redaktion der Sicherheitspolitischen Presseschau.

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Europa, Asien, Afrika, Amerika und weltweite Phänomene und Institutionen. Die bpb bietet ein breites Angebot zu internationalen Themen.

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Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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Publikationen zum Thema

Coverbild Internationale Sicherheit im 21. Jahrhundert

Internationale Sicherheit im 21. Jahrhundert

Die internationale Sicherheit ist fragil und bedroht. Wie können und müssen demokratische Systeme ...

Internationale Sicherheitspolitik Cover

Internationale Sicherheitspolitik

Seit Ende des Ost-West-Konflikts hat sich die internationale Sicherheitspolitik deutlich verändert....

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