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09.09.2018

"That Post-Liberal International Order World: Some Core Characteristics"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/post-liberal-international-order-world-some-core-characteristics

Bruce Jentleson von der Sanford School of Public Policy der Duke University erläutert, warum die liberale Weltordnung in ihrer bisherigen Form unter den veränderten geopolitischen Bedingungen des 21. Jahrhunderts auch ohne Donald Trump unter Druck geraten wäre. "Why should one expect that a system established more than 70 years ago based on a particular distribution of power, array of threats, and other structural conditions should have the same effectiveness when underlying factors such as these have substantially changed? Hailing the LIO as the culmination for global peace and prosperity applicable on an ongoing basis is comparably ahistorical to Francis Fukuyama’s contention that democracy and capitalism emerged from centuries of contestation as the optimal political and economic systems to be refined but not fundamentally challenged."

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17.06.2018

"America’s Terrorism Problem Doesn’t End with Prison — It Might Just Begin There"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/americas-terrorism-problem-doesnt-end-prison—it-might-just-begin-there

Europäische Länder wie Frankreich und Großbritannien hätten erkannt, dass die Inhaftierung von Terroristen das Problem der radikalislamischen Bedrohung nicht immer löst, sondern in manchen Fällen sogar verschärft, schreiben die beiden Extremismus-Experten Lorenzo Vidino und Seamus Hughes von der George Washington University. In den USA werde das Risiko, das von Extremisten nach Verbüßung ihrer Strafe ausgeht, immer noch unterschätzt. "Domestically, programs aimed at reintegration do exist for convicted gang members and white supremacists, but there has been little effort to introduce any kind of rehabilitation program for incarcerated jihadi terrorists, who are left to fester in their anger and radical views. (...) By the same token, authorities have not developed a comprehensive system to monitor convicted terrorists after they are released. (...) The reasons for the government’s inaction are manifold. Attempting to rehabilitate inmates and monitoring individuals upon release are activities fraught with civil rights concerns. Authorities are also wary of getting into an area that might impinge on the separation of religion and state, as most de-radicalization programs tend to have at least some theological components. Such programs would also require funding. (...) Several European countries, faced with an admittedly larger problem than the United States, have long developed rehabilitation programs that, while not perfect, have achieved some positive results. It is high time for authorities in the United States to do the same."

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14.04.2018

"Bad Legal Arguments for the Syria Airstrikes"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/bad-legal-arguments-syria-airstrikes

Jack Goldsmith von der Harvard Law School und Oona Hathaway von der Yale Law School haben die kursierenden rechtlichen Argumente zur Begründung der Raketenangriffe der USA, Großbritanniens und Frankreichs in Syrien analysiert. Sie kommen zu dem Schluss, dass es keine erkennbare völkerrechtliche Basis für die Angriffe gebe. Eine Rechtfertigung laute z.B., dass der Militärschlag illegal, aber trotzdem legitim sei. "French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian claimed that the air strikes were 'legitimate' without purporting to defend them as lawful. The 'illegal but legitimate' defense has been tossed around since Kosovo. It is often presented as a legal argument, but it is not. It is a claim that illegal behavior can nonetheless, in some circumstances, be legitimate. But legitimacy is in the eye of the beholder. If 'illegal but legitimate' becomes an accepted principle, then the Charter’s limits become meaningless. Nations that do not share Western conceptions of legitimacy could justify uses of force based on their own conceptions of legitimacy. In short, 'illegal but legitimate' implies no legal limits on the use of force."

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08.04.2018

"The True Story of al-Qaeda’s Demise and Resurgence in Syria"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/true-story-al-qaedas-demise-and-resurgence-syria

Tore Refslund Hamming und Pieter Van Ostaeyen beschäftigen sich in diesem Beitrag mit der Rolle der Al-Qaida im syrischen Bürgerkrieg. "When analysts consider how strong al-Qaeda is, much of the discussion concerns the group's relationship with its affiliate organizations in Yemen, the Maghreb, and other areas. Perhaps the most important of these organizations is, or was, its affiliate in Syria. In the last year, al-Qaeda and its affiliate there seemed to have a high-profile breakup, though the extent and meaning of this is disputed. Tore Refslund Hamming of the European University Institute and Pieter Van Ostaeyen of the University of Leuven argue that the breakup is indeed real and that al-Qaeda's presence in the Syrian conflict is relatively small and locally focused."

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18.02.2018

"The Origins of the Drone Program"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/origins-drone-program

Christopher J. Fuller, Historiker an der University of Southampton, rekapituliert in seinem Essay die Entwicklung von Kampfdrohnen zu den heute wohl wichtigsten Werkzeugen des amerikanischen Antiterrorkriegs. "Of all of the weapons in the U.S. arsenal, none is more associated with the current conflict against terrorist forces than the armed drone. From the first lethal strike on the opening night of Operation Enduring Freedom, to the controversy surrounding the targeted killing of U.S. citizen Anwar al-Awlaki, these unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been at the forefront of America’s post-9/11 conflicts. Their capabilities have shaped U.S. counterterrorism policy, and forced an evolution in the Laws of Armed Conflict, pushing the boundaries of traditional concepts of imminence, self-defense, and even what constitutes a warzone. As the Trump administration’s sharp escalation of strikes in Yemen and Somalia has reignited debate over the legality, efficacy, and wisdom of the approach, it is worth revisiting the historical origins of this weapon system to better understand the context within which the United States is conducting its counterterrorism operations."

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18.02.2018

"Indicting Hackers Made China Behave, But Russia Will Be Harder"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/indicting-hackers-made-china-behave-russia-will-be-harder

Nach der Anklageerhebung der US-Justiz gegen russische Staatsbürger und Organisationen erinnert Timothy Edgar daran, dass die USA in der Vergangenheit auch das Ziel von staatlich organisierten Cyberangriffen aus China waren. Dabei habe es sich überwiegend um Wirtschaftsspionage gehandelt, die von Peking nach deutlichen Drohungen aus Washington eingestellt worden sei. Diesmal werde es nicht so einfach sein. "In the Chinese case, the U.S. government was setting forth its view of an important cyber norm: commercial espionage should not be tolerated. Governments need to protect a level playing field in commerce, the argument went, even if espionage is tacitly accepted in national security matters. (...) The U.S. government stands on less firm ground when arguing against the Russian interference campaign. The U.S. engages in cyber operations not only to collect intelligence information, but also to conduct covert action — defined under 50 U.S.C. § 3093(e) as an 'activity or activities of the United States Government to influence political, economic, or military conditions abroad, where it is intended that the role of the United States Government will not be apparent or acknowledged publicly.' The only requirement is that covert action must be authorized by the president and reported to Congress. In other words, Russia can make the case that the activities of the Internet Research Agency are not so far from what the U.S. does itself."

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14.02.2018

"The Israel-Iran-Syria Clash and the Law on Use of Force"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/israel-iran-syria-clash-and-law-use-force

Amichai Cohen von der Yale Law School und Elena Chachko von der Harvard Law School haben die jüngste Konfrontation zwischen Israel, Iran und Syrien unter völkerrechtlichen Gesichtspunkten analysiert. Sie kommen zu dem Schluss, dass die großzügige israelische Interpretation des Prinzips der "präventiven Selbstverteidigung" aus legalen und politischen Gründen durchaus kritisch beurteilt, aber nicht völlig verworfen werden könne. In jedem Fall müsse sich Israel bei einem Militärschlag auf syrischem Staatsgebiet an das Prinzip der Proportionalität halten. "(...) we must also recognize the predicament in which Israel finds itself vis-a-vis the threats it faces from the north in the absence of legal tools that would allow it to address those threats. It is interesting to note in this regard that the United States has formally supported Israel's action in Syria on the basis of the 'inherent right of self defense,' perhaps lending its own voice in support of a broad reading of the U.N. Charter in this case. Finally, it is important to remember that even if Israel can rely on a relatively broad legal interpretation of the right to self-defense as the legal basis for its actions, it is limited by the requirements of necessity and proportionality of the use of force. Israel’s case for preventive self-defense would be more credible if it rigorously abides by these requirements."

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28.01.2018

"Political Islam and Islamist Terrorism in Bangladesh: What You Need to Know"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/political-islam-and-islamist-terrorism-bangladesh-what-you-need-know

C. Christine Fair von der Georgetown University analysiert die Hintergründe der zunehmenden Bedeutung islamistischer Gruppen in Bangladesch und meint, dass die US-Regierung dem Extremismus in einem der bevölkerungsreichsten muslimischen Länder größere Aufmerksamkeit schenken sollte. "Scholars, commentators, and policymakers alike have generally held that Bangladesh is a success story of a moderate, secular, Muslim democracy; however, this view never rested on strong empirical ground. (...) Bangladesh’s two mainstream political parties are known more for their rivalry, corruption, and incompetence than for governance. (...) More worrisome yet, Bangladesh is increasingly the site of Islamist violence. Between January 2005 and December 2017, some 746 people have died in Islamist terrorist attacks, including 339 alleged terrorists; of those attacks, 91 percent have taken place since 2013. (...) Despite these troubling signs, security professionals and analysts have neglected Bangladesh. This is puzzling: Bangladesh has one of the world’s largest Muslim populations with more than 141 million Muslims, in addition to another 17 million non-Muslims."

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16.01.2018

"China’s Total Information Awareness: Second-Order Challenges"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/chinas-total-information-awareness-second-order-challenges

Ashley Deeks macht darauf aufmerksam, dass die konsequente Einführung moderner Überwachungstechnologien, z.B. zur Gesichtserkennung, in China auch für die USA neue Fragen aufwerfe. "One challenge relates to U.S. intelligence collection. If the Chinese government can recognize every person on the street and easily track a person’s comings and goings, this will make it even harder for foreign intelligence agencies to operate inside the country. Not only will U.S. and other Western intelligence agents be even easier to follow (electronically), but the Chinese government will also be able to identify Chinese nationals who might be working with Western intelligence services — perhaps using machine learning and pattern detection to extract patterns of life. China’s facial recognition efforts thus facilitate its counterintelligence capacities. A second challenge is posed by the fact that this technology surely will spread to other (probably authoritarian) countries. (...) Sooner or later, the United States therefore will need to decide what it thinks about the use of pervasive video surveillance and, more specifically, whether this kind of surveillance violates basic human rights norms."

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14.01.2018

"Five Myths About Boko Haram"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/five-myths-about-boko-haram

Alexander Thurston, Afrikaexperte an der Georgetown University und Autor des Buches "Boko Haram: The History of an African Jihadist Movement", erläutert in diesem Beitrag fünf "Mythen" über die radikalislamische Terrorgruppe aus Nigeria. "Myth #1: Boko Haram Turned to Violence Because of Government Repression (...) Myth #2: Boko Haram’s Founder Concentrated on Preaching against Financial Corruption in the Nigerian Government (...) Myth #3: Boko Haram Was an Affiliate of al-Qaeda Before Joining the Islamic State (...) Myth #4: Boko Haram Has Been Defeated (...) Myth #5: Americans Know How to Defeat Boko Haram (...) Nigeria is not an equation to be solved like some math problem in a workbook, where the answer is evident if you know how to find it — rather, Nigeria is one of the most complicated countries in the world. Any resolution to the Boko Haram conflict will require a good deal of experimentation, trial and error, and even luck. It may also take quite a long time."

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07.01.2018

"Virtual Caliphate Rebooted: The Islamic State’s Evolving Online Strategy"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/virtual-caliphate-rebooted-islamic-states-evolving-online-strategy

Charlie Winter und Jade Parker berichten, dass der Propaganda-Apparat des "Islamischen Staates" nach den militärischen Niederlagen in Irak und Syrien fast zum Erliegen gekommen sei. Das "Virtuelle Kalifat" sei jedoch nicht am Ende, sondern entwickle sich weiter. "Today, the majority of its provincial media offices lie dormant, their overall productivity dropping by about 90 percent compared with the summer of 2015, when it was at its height. This is not just a media decline — it is a full-fledged collapse (...) As its offline manifestation has buckled and distorted, its online presence has come to look much more like that of a 'conventional' terrorist group — a shift that, while it certainly validates the progress made against the organization in Iraq and Syria in recent years, raises a far subtler, more insidious range of issues that will likely prove to be more difficult for policymakers to meaningfully address."

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10.12.2017

"Children of the Caliphate: Victims or Threat?"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/children-caliphate-victims-or-threat

Angesichts der Indoktrinierung von Kindern in den jahrelang vom "Islamischen Staat" beherrschten Gebieten in Irak und Syrien stehen europäische Regierungen Robin Simcox zufolge vor der schwierigen Frage, ob sie oft mit ihren Angehörigen eingereiste Kinder aus der Region als Opfer oder eher als Bedrohung behandeln sollten. "The Islamic State has undoubtedly exposed these children to their ideology. Europol’s EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report warned this year that 'IS propaganda has repeatedly depicted the training and indoctrination of minors.' (...) There is hardly an established playbook for how European democracies should integrate into society children potentially already radicalized. There are, however, options. At times, prosecution will be appropriate. (...) Another option is to allow the state to take children away from ISIS-sympathetic parents and place them into care. (...) All these factors mean that there should be a role for de-radicalization initiatives. This is something that is not just relevant to returnees; children are being radicalized in the West, too. Western teens and pre-teens have carried out dozens of plots."

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19.11.2017

"Safeguarding Nuclear Launch Procedures: A Proposal"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/safeguarding-nuclear-launch-procedures-proposal

Eine Senatsanhörung in der vergangenen Woche hat das öffentliche Interesse auf die institutionell weitgehend unbegrenzte Autorität des US-Präsidenten zur Anordnung eines Atomschlags gelenkt. Der Politikwissenschaftler Richard K. Betts und Rechtsprofessor Matthew Waxman schlagen in ihrem Beitrag eine neue Prozedur vor, die die offensichtlichen Nachteile der geltenden Regelung vermeiden würde. "Starting a nuclear war is the most momentous national security decision imaginable, and some naturally wish to ban that option altogether. For better or worse, U.S. and NATO strategic doctrine has always rested on keeping the option of nuclear first-use, and there is no consensus for reversal. Our case for introducing checks into the process for nuclear first-use, however, is not just to limit the commander in chief’s power but also to ensure it. (...) One solution would be a process that requires, in addition to authentication of the president’s order, certifications from the secretary of defense or designee that the order is valid (definitely from the commander in chief) as well as from the attorney general or designee that it is legal. Criticism that this procedure could dangerously lengthen the authorization process would be misplaced, since the requirement would not apply under conditions of enemy attack."

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12.11.2017

"Avengers in Wrath: Moral Agency and Trauma Prevention for Remote Warriors"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/avengers-wrath-moral-agency-and-trauma-prevention-remote-warriors

Der frühere Drohnenpilot Dave Blair und die Psychologin Karen House wollen sich in diesem Beitrag dem "Mythos" entgegenstellen, dass die Tätigkeit der Piloten ferngesteuerter Kampfdrohnen eher einem Videospiel als echter Kriegsführung ähnle. "For someone who’s been flying in remote combat for a decade, Dave found it challenging to wind back the clock and remember what it was like to encounter killing for the first time — especially because his first experience with the topic occurred in such a different place, with radically different rituals and support structures. Similarly, Karen found empathy with the RPA crews in her own story, but our flyers’ perpetual existence in a fractured mish-mash of war and peace made their experience qualitatively different from her own. We both realized, contrary to popular myth, physical distance and technology were not mediating psychological impact — many crews were connecting more deeply with the experience, not less. We needed to build a new understanding of how the relationship between distance and combat if we were going to provide our crews the support and understanding they required to do what the country asked of them."

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25.10.2017

"Laws of War: Where Both Liberals and Realists Are Wrong"

https://lawfareblog.com/laws-war-where-both-liberals-and-realists-are-wrong

Das neue Buch "The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World" von Oona Hathaway und Scott Shapiro hat eine Debatte über die Frage angestoßen, wie effektiv das 1945 beschlossene völkerrechtliche Gewaltverbot tatsächlich gewesen ist. Ian Hurd meint, dass sowohl die Buchautoren als auch Skeptiker wie Stephen Walt gute und weniger gute Argumente hätten. "As Hathaway and Shapiro on one side and Walt on the other argue over who is being more 'realistic,' it becomes clear that they are all both right and wrong, in part, and a third way forward is revealed. The legalization of war did indeed change world politics but its main effect has been to legitimize wars of 'self-defense' and delegitimize all other kinds of war. This is not trivial, as Walt would have it, but neither is it the end of a world in which war is 'a legitimate means of righting wrongs' as Hathaway and Shapiro say (Page XV). As is often the case in either-or academic debates, it’s worth looking beyond where the two sides agree to see what else is going on."

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16.10.2017

"Should We Use the 'T-Word' for Right-Wing Violence?"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/should-we-use-t-word-right-wing-violence

Sollten rechtsextreme Gewalttaten wie die vom 13. August in Charlottesville als "Terrorismus" eingestuft werden? Daniel Byman erläutert in seiner ausführlichen Analyse die Schwierigkeiten einer solchen Interpretation des Terrorismus-Begriffs. "That problem is compounded by the fact that Americans are much more comfortable calling some types of political violence 'terrorism' than others because the terrorism label carries normative weight. It suggests that both the person’s actions and their cause are beyond the pale. It is understandable that peaceful anti-abortion voices don’t want to be lumped in, even by very loose association, with anything smacking of terrorism. This array of factors makes it hard to broaden the use of the terrorism label beyond foreign-linked groups. The definitions are all about actions, not the ideology behind it, but most non-experts lump the two together, and politics inevitably shape how we approach this problem. As terrorism analyst Brian Jenkins observed in 1981, 'terrorism is what the bad guys do.' Over 35 years later, that’s still where we are."

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25.09.2017

"What’s Next for the Bundestag, Merkel and Germany’s Security Policies?"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/whats-next-bundestag-merkel-and-germanys-security-policies

Togawa Mercer erwartet, dass die CDU bei den kommenden Koalitionsverhandlungen auch in der Sicherheitspolitik zu Kompromissen gezwungen sein könnte. Dies könnte u.a. Auswirkungen auf die deutsche Russland- und NATO-Politik haben: "The CDU/CSU and the Green Party agree that sanctions against Russia should be maintained until Russia complies with the terms of the Minsk Protocol. The FDP, however, has been more accepting of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Although unlikely, the CDU/CSU may face some pressure to soften its approach toward Russian sanctions if it wants FDP cooperation. The Green Party, however, is by no means aligned with the CDU/CSU on every issue. The FDP agrees with the CDU/CSU on both military spending and NATO support. The Green Party, by contrast, is against a military buildup. Those concerned about Germany’s alignment with Russia should pay close attention to the push-and-pull of negotiations over the coming weeks."

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15.08.2017

"The Domestic Terrorism Danger: Focus on Unauthorized Private Military Groups"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/domestic-terrorism-danger-focus-unauthorized-private-military-groups

An den Demonstrationen in Charlottesville in den USA haben auch schwer bewaffnete Angehörige privater Milizen teilgenommen. Philip Zelikow, Historiker an der University of Virginia und früherer Regierungsmitarbeiter, hält diese Gruppen für eine potenzielle Terrorgefahr, der mit rechtlichen Mitteln entgegen getreten werden müsse. "The Second Amendment arguments can be — and have been — overcome. Individuals may have a right to bear arms for self-defense, but they do not have a right to organize and train as a private military group. (...) The language of Virginia’s Constitution is clear. While 'a well regulated militia' is valued, including what state law calls the 'unorganized militia,' the Constitution stresses that, 'in all cases the military should be under strict subordination to, and governed by, the civil power.' Well, when truckloads of organized groups of heavily armed men drive into my town — or your town — it is time to uphold the civil power. Virginia, like most states, has the legal power to stop them. And the precedents are on the books."

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28.06.2017

"Judging Al Qaeda’s Record, Part II: Why Has Al Qaeda Declined?"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/judging-al-qaedas-record-part-ii-why-has-al-qaeda-declined

Daniel Byman hat sich in zwei Beiträgen mit den Ursachen des Niedergangs der Al-Qaida beschäftigt. "In a previous post, I argued that the organization of Al Qaeda declined even as the movement it championed remains robust. No single factor explains Al Qaeda’s problems since the September 11th attacks, but I believe the most consequential reasons for this decline include its underestimation of the U.S.-led counterterrorism campaign and the associated loss of its haven and global infrastructure; its killing of Muslim civilians; and the lack of a strong base among the people it claims to represent."

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31.01.2017

"The U.N. Charter and Safe Zones in Syria"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/un-charter-and-safe-zones-syria

Ashley Deek von der University of Virginia Law School macht darauf aufmerksam, dass eine Einrichtung der von US-Präsident Trump angeregten Sicherheitszonen in Syrien ohne Zustimmung der Assad-Regierung mit einiger Sicherheit gegen die Charta der Vereinten Nationen verstoßen würde. "Taking control of part of another state’s territory in this context — even for purely humanitarian purposes — is very difficult to justify under a self-defense theory, particularly where the safe zone is not immediately adjacent to the fighting with ISIS. And although the U.N. Security Council conceivably could decide to establish such a zone under Chapter VII over Assad’s objection, Russia surely would veto such a resolution. Thus, those crafting options for the President should push hard for plans that either create safe zones consensually on the territory of Syria’s neighbors (e.g., Turkey) or that extract consent for the zones from Assad (with the strong urging of Russia, perhaps). Indeed, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has said that safe zones might be possible, but only with Assad’s consent."

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15.06.2016

"NATO's Designation of Cyber as an Operational Domain of Conflict"

https://www.lawfareblog.com/natos-designation-cyber-operational-domain-conflict

Herb Lin erwartet, dass die NATO nach ihrer Entscheidung, Cyberangriffe auf Mitgliedstaaten künftig in bestimmten Fällen als Bündnisfall nach Artikel 5 des NATO-Vertrags einzustufen, offensive Cyberwaffen in ihr Arsenal aufnehmen könnte. "(...) defensive alliances have offensive weapons, if nothing else to help restore the status quo in the aftermath of an enemy attack. It’s no secret that NATO member nations operate warplanes that have deep interdiction capabilities for destroying targets far removed from their home bases, ships carrying long-range missiles, and tanks that could be used for establishing control over tracts of land. Despite [NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s] silence, why would we expect the cyber domain of conflict to be any different? (...) Whether the NATO announcement about cyber as another domain of conflict prompts greater openness regarding offensive cyber operations from other nations remains to be seen, but there is no question that the NATO announcement provides a degree of legitimacy for such operations as a part of alliance strategy that has been absent in the past."

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05.02.2014

"The Problem at the Heart of the NSA Disputes: Legal Density"

http://www.lawfareblog.com/2014/02/the-problem-at-the-heart-of-the-nsa-disputes-legal-density/#.UvNOWPsz1
hM

Benjamin Wittes sieht in den für die Bürger kaum lesbaren Geheimdienstgesetzen einen Hauptgrund für den Vertrauensverlust der NSA in der amerikanischen Bevölkerung. NSA-Mitarbeiter könnten behaupten, dass US-Bürger nicht überwacht werden, obwohl viele Operationen dieser Aussage offensichtlich widersprächen. "(...) the complexity, though perhaps inevitable, is also corrosive. It makes it hard, even with a great deal of declassification, to have a conversation with the public about what this agency should and should not do — because there’s no stable understanding of what this agency does and does not do now. It makes it hard to defend the agency accurately. It makes it hard to criticize the agency accurately. And it makes it hard for the agency itself to tell a young student what intelligence collection under the rule of law looks like in any language that does not risk inducing later a sense of betrayal."

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03.02.2014

"Catalog of the Snowden Revelations"

http://www.lawfareblog.com/catalog-of-the-snowden-revelations/#.UvCorvsz1hP

Der Lawfare-Blog hat einen "Katalog" mit allen bisher bekannten NSA-Enthüllungen Edward Snowdens zusammengestellt. "Each disclosure is assigned to one of the following categories: tools and methods, overseas USG locations from which operations are undertaken, foreign officials and systems that NSA has targeted, encryption that NSA has broken, ISPs or platforms that NSA has penetrated or attempted to penetrate, and identities of cooperating companies and governments. The page will be updated from time to time and is intended as a resource regarding Snowden and the debate over U.S. surveillance."

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05.01.2014

"2013 – The Year We Lost Iraq?"

http://www.lawfareblog.com/2014/01/the-foreign-policy-essay-2013-the-year-we-lost-iraq/#.Usp1jft0mRm

Angesichts der zunehmenden Gewalt und der wiedererstarkten Al-Qaida im Irak schreibt der Nahostexperte Daniel Byman, dass die US-Regierung im vergangenen Jahr zahlreiche strategische Fehler begangen und viele Gelegenheiten zur Verbesserung der Situation im Land verpasst habe. Sollte der Konflikt außer Kontrolle geraten, drohe ein offener Krieg wie in Syrien. "Violence in Iraq in 2013 was worse than at any time since 2008 – when Iraq was still in the throes of its all-out civil war that had led to over 100,000 deaths. And Iraq’s problems are getting worse, not better. Although there are many differences, the situation in Iraq today reminds me in some ways of where we were in Syria two years ago: we knew the situation was bad, we knew the situation was getting worse, and we were unable to devise a coherent policy response. We all know the results. I worry that in 2015 we’ll be looking at Iraq as we do Syria today, wondering how to manage a strategic and humanitarian disaster and lamenting the opportunities we missed before the conflict was completely out of control."

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