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22.10.2019

"Vladimir Putin is resetting Russia’s Africa agenda to counter the US and China"

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/vladimir-putin-is-resetting-russias-africa-agenda-to-counter-the-us-an
d-china/

Mit dem Russland-Afrika-Gipfel in Sotschi habe Moskau den "Reset" seiner Afrika-Strategie bekräftigt, schreibt Landry Signé. Neben einer pragmatischen wirtschaftlichen Zusammenarbeit will Russland seine Beziehungen zum Kontinent auch durch militärisch-technische Kooperation und Soft-Power-Initiativen stärken. "These are all set out in the competitive context with the United States, the European Union, and China, among others, as the backdrop. (…) Russia offers a non-Western-centric option for diplomacy and support. In 2015, Russia created an alternative credit rating agency to counterbalance the influence that Western agencies had in deciding on the access to finance of the developing world. Russia uses techniques such as visa-free access to South Africans in order to differentiate itself from Western practices. And in a return to the peak of its Soviet influence days in the 1960s, education is becoming a key influence vehicle for Russia in African countries with everything from research support and scholarships to language schools and academic partnerships."

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24.09.2019

"The geography of poverty hotspots"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/09/24/the-geography-of-poverty-hotspots/

Jennifer L. Cohen, Raj M. Desai und Homi Kharas von der Brookings Institution machen darauf aufmerksam, dass sich Armut sowohl in reichen als auch in ärmeren Ländern in bestimmten Regionen konzentriere. In ihrer Analyse identifizieren sie vier regionale Ansammlungen entsprechender "hotspots": "We find 840 poverty hotspots globally, home to 1 billion people, from a universe of 3,609 administrative units one level below the nation-state (districts, states, and provinces). 102 countries have at least one poverty hotspot. Immediately, four principle clusters of hotspots are visible: Tropical Africa (...) Tropical Latin America (...) Central-South Asia (...) Southeast Asia-Western Oceania (...). What can be done to ensure that these areas are not left behind? Solutions such as encouraging emigration or spatial targeting of growth policies are inherently difficult. If migrants leave, and in so doing, take scarce capital with them, they can depress their source areas even more. (...) An alternative is to accelerate the economic growth of poverty hotspots through targeted policies. (...) Our findings suggest that three types of spatially-targeted policies can make a difference: (1) those that improve human capital; (2) those that improve physical infrastructure and market connectivity; (3) those that enhance the resilience of regions to shocks such as like droughts, civil conflict, and natural disasters."

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03.09.2019

"Why 5G requires new approaches to cybersecurity"

https://www.brookings.edu/research/why-5g-requires-new-approaches-to-cybersecurity/

Tom Wheeler und David Simpson erklären in dieser Studie für die Brookings Institution, warum die Sicherheitsrisiken der kommenden 5-Netze besondere Schutzmaßnahmen nötig machen. "5G will be a physical overhaul of our essential networks that will have decades-long impact. Because 5G is the conversion to a mostly all-software network, future upgrades will be software updates much like the current upgrades to your smartphone. Because of the cyber vulnerabilities of software, the tougher part of the real 5G 'race' is to retool how we secure the most important network of the 21st century and the ecosystem of devices and applications that sprout from that network. (...) To build 5G on top of a weak cybersecurity foundation is to build on sand. This is not just a matter of the safety of network users, it is a matter of national security. (...) The purpose of this paper is to move beyond the Huawei infrastructure issue to review some of the issues that the furor over Huawei has masked. Policy leaders should be conducting a more balanced risk assessment, with a broader focus on vulnerabilities, threat probabilities, and impact drivers of the cyber risk equation. This should be followed by an honest evaluation of the oversight necessary to assure that the promise of 5G is not overcome by cyber vulnerabilities, which result from hasty deployments that fail to sufficiently invest in cyber risk mitigation."

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28.03.2019

"Is Colombia’s fragile peace breaking apart?"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/03/28/is-colombias-fragile-peace-breaking-apart/

Das historische Friedensabkommen zwischen der Regierung und der FARC-Guerilla in Kolumbien stehe derzeit vor seinem bisher größten Test, berichtet Ted Piccone. "After an initial and largely successful phase of demobilization and disarmament, the country’s main actors are struggling with the more costly and destabilizing stages of reintegration of ex-fighters, soaring illicit drug production, rural underdevelopment, and reparations to victims. The most daunting challenge, however, is posed by the accord’s complex approach to truth, justice, and reconciliation. Recent events suggest that President Iván Duque Márquez, elected last June on promises to revise key provisions of the accord, is determined to undermine the pact’s central bargain of peace for conditional amnesty in order to satisfy his conservative coalition partners who never fully accepted the deal. And guerrillas who never signed up for or have since left the arrangement are pairing up with other criminal armed groups to destabilize a security environment already under growing strain from the influx of over 1.2 million people fleeing the crisis in Venezuela."

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30.10.2018

"Why the West will survive Merkel’s departure"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/10/30/why-the-west-will-survive-merkels-departure/

James Kirchick schreibt, dass der angekündigte politische Rückzug von Bundeskanzlerin Merkel im Westen "Alarmglocken" ausgelöst habe. Er hält diese Reaktion für übertrieben, da die deutsche Rolle bei der Stabilisierung der westlichen Ordnung in den letzten Jahren häufig überschätzt worden sei. "Visions of the German chancellor as the only person standing between humanity and the apocalypse became fashionable after U.S. President Donald Trump’s election to the White House. But they were always overblown. Merkel herself knows that Germany — with its poorly-equipped military, deeply ingrained pacifism and historical hang-ups — is in no position to defend the West. There’s no question Europe and the world will survive her departure. Merkel, for all her rock solid stability, is ultimately replaceable. But her exit does add another element of uncertainty to an already highly unpredictable geopolitical state of affairs."

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21.02.2018

"Israel’s coming war with Hezbollah"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/02/21/israels-coming-war-with-hezbollah/

Mara Karlin vom Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence meint, dass eine bewaffnete Eskalation des schwelenden Konflikts zwischen Israel und der Hisbollah nur eine Frage der Zeit sei. Aktuell sei zwar keine der beiden Seiten an einem offenen Krieg interessiert, dies treffe jedoch nicht auf die Akteure im Krisenherd Syrien zu. "A deliberate escalation by Israel or Hezbollah is unlikely to occur in the near term; an inadvertent one, however, is possible, as is an escalation courtesy of other actors currently tearing up the Levant, such as Iran, the Assad regime, or Russia. All three could benefit in different ways from such a conflict. Iran and the Assad regime could use it to distract from the horrific state of affairs in Syria while rallying regional support against Israel. The Russians could use a conflict to solidify their regional leadership role by brokering a cessation of hostilities and to further demonstrate their entrenchment vis-à-vis the United States. At a very tactical level, the narrowing battlefield in Syria almost surely will facilitate an inadvertent mishap among some combination of these actors. How they choose to respond will be crucial, but it is less predictable as the rules of engagement have become murkier."

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13.02.2018

"The Education of Kim Jong–un"

https://www.brookings.edu/essay/the-education-of-kim-jong-un/

Jung H. Pak, frühere CIA-Mitarbeiterin und Korea-Expertin am Center for East Asia Policy Studies der Brookings Institution, hat sich in diesem Essay eingehend mit dem Werdegang des nordkoreanischen Staatschefs Kim Jong-un seit dessen Machtübernahme im Jahr 2011 beschäftigt. "When the focus is on Kim’s appearance, there’s a tendency to portray him as a cartoon figure, ridiculing his weight and youth. Kim has been called — and not just by our president — 'Rocket Man,' 'short and fat,' 'a crazy fat boy,' and 'Pyongyang’s pig boy.' (...) However, when the focus is on the frighteningly rapid pace and advancement of North Korea’s cyber, nuclear, and conventional capabilities, Kim is portrayed as a ten-foot-tall giant with untold and unlimited power: unstoppable, undeterrable, omnipotent. The coexistence of these two sets of overlapping perceptions — the ten-foot-tall baby — has shaped our understanding and misunderstanding of Kim and North Korea. It simultaneously underestimates and overestimates Kim’s capabilities, conflates his capabilities with his intentions, questions his rationality, or assumes his possession of a strategic purpose and the means to achieve his goals. These assumptions distort and skew our policy discussions."

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07.02.2018

"Development, self-interest, and the countries left behind"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/02/07/development-self-interest-and-the-countries-
left-behind/

Sarah Bermeo, Politikwissenschaftlerin an der Duke University, stellt fest, dass sich die internationale Entwicklungshilfe spätestens seit den Anschlägen vom 11. September 2001 vor allem am Eigeninteresse der wohlhabenden Staaten ausrichte. Die Verteilung der Hilfsgelder habe sich in den letzten Jahren entsprechend verschoben. "In the post-2001 period, donors focus more on countries from which they expect the biggest spillovers from underdevelopment: those that are poor, proximate, and populous. They also favor countries that send them higher numbers of migrants and imports. The impact of geopolitical concerns has become less significant during this time. This is consistent with an increased emphasis on development and with focusing efforts in countries where transmission mechanisms — whether due to proximity, movement of people, or movement of goods — are high. Donors also care more about effectiveness in recent years, conditioning the type of foreign aid on the quality of governance in recipient countries. (...) This turn toward development promotion in countries of interest has gone beyond foreign aid. The number of preferential trade agreements between high-income and developing countries has increased markedly in recent decades, often tied explicitly to development promotion".

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08.01.2018

"America has military options for North Korea — but they’re all bad"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/01/08/america-has-military-options-for-north-korea-b
ut-theyre-all-bad/

E. O’Hanlon erläutert die plausiblen Optionen eines amerikanischen Militärschlags gegen Nordkorea, die bereits von früheren US-Regierungen in Erwägung gezogen und nach eingehender Analyse aus guten Gründen verworfen worden seien. "A review of the plausible military options available to the United States underscores two central points. First, the Trump administration is not alone in thinking about them. Previous U.S. administrations, including Democratic ones, have done so too. Second, however, none of those options really hold water. The risks of escalation are not worth the potential benefits. (...) whatever their individual appeal, each of these options would appear to promise only mediocre effects against the North Korean threats that matter most to the United States. Let us hope the Trump administration understands as much, and that it is using its threats of military action to create a sense of urgency about the need for North Korean concessions rather than to signal looming attack."

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12.12.2017

"Containing Shiite militias: The battle for stability in Iraq"

https://www.brookings.edu/research/containing-shiite-militias-the-battle-for-stability-in-iraq/

Nach dem von Premierminister al-Abadi offiziell verkündeten Sieg über den "Islamischen Staat" steht die Frage der künftigen Stabilität Iraks erneut im Raum. Ranj Alaaldin vom Brookings Doha Center erläutert in seiner Analyse, warum die Einhegung der schiitischen Milizen bei der Suche nach Antworten von besonders hoher Bedeutung sein wird. "In this Brookings Doha Center policy briefing, Ranj Alaaldin provides a strategy focused on helping Iraqis reduce the space in which Shiite militias operate by establishing an environment and culture of accountability. He recommends that the United States should shift resources away from the Iraqi political elite and toward the communal Shiite elements of state-aligned militias, tribes, and clerical figures. Second, international resources should help empower local actors such as Iraqi NGOs, humanitarian organizations, and civil society actors, which are better positioned to influence the militias to adhere to international norms. Third, as militias might fail in governance and administration, it is crucial to revitalize Iraqi state institutions and security forces so that it can provide basic services to civilians and revive the economy."

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05.12.2017

"Why is Trump undoing decades of U.S. policy on Jerusalem?"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/12/05/why-is-trump-about-to-declare-jerusalem-the-capital-of-i
srael/

Mit der Anerkennung Jerusalems als Hauptstadt Israels hat sich US-Präsident Trump nach Ansicht von Shibley Telhami aus kaum überzeugenden Gründen von der bisherigen Nahostpolitik der USA abgewandt. Auch seine eigenen Zielsetzungen in der Region habe Trump damit untergraben: den Kampf gegen den islamischen Extremismus und die Zurückdrängung des Einflusses Irans. "Jerusalem is the perfect issue for Iran and Islamist militants to use to mobilize support against the United States and those who endorse its policies. (...) Sure, the Middle East is more divided today than it was then. Many Arabs are focused on their immediate tragedies; others may have a diminished connection to Palestine, or even to Jerusalem. But as the region has grown deeply divided, Jerusalem has remained a central symbol that transcends the divide. It remains a mobilizing issue even in a polarized environment: Even if Arabs don’t go out into the streets in consequential numbers, a declaration will play into the hands of those plotting in the basement."

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07.11.2017

"Trump’s bet on Saudis looks increasingly dangerous, and the $110 billion payoff? Unlikely."

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/11/07/trumps-bet-on-saudis-looks-increasingly-dangerous-and-th
e-110-billion-payoff-unlikely/

Bruce Riedel beklagt dagegen, dass Kronprinz Mohammed bin Salman den seit Jahrzehnten geltenden Konsens in der saudi-arabischen Politik zerstört habe. Saudi-Arabien werde künftig wahrscheinlich ein weniger stabiles Land mit einer impulsiven Politik sein. "The kingdom has always been a police state and an absolute monarchy married to a theocracy. But royal politics inside the family observed a certain decorum. If a prince or minister was removed he kept his honor and integrity, no one was humiliated. (...) Since the early 1960s, Saudi Arabia has been one of the most stable and predictable players in the Middle East. Aside from some terrorist threats, usually quickly eradicated by Muhammad bin Nayef, it has been a safe place to travel and invest. That all appears to be in doubt. Splintering the royal family is a dangerous approach. Arresting and perhaps even killing political opponents is not likely to encourage investors. Fanning sectarian violence is bound to fuel turbulence. A dangerous region is getting more volatile."

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15.08.2017

"NATO at a crossroads: Experts offer bold ideas for enhancing Eastern European security"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/08/15/nato-at-a-crossroads-experts-offer-bold-ideas-
for-enhancing-eastern-european-security/

Torrey Taussig berichtet über eine Veranstaltung des Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, bei der die beiden Experten Michael O’Hanlon und Steven Pifer über mögliche Modelle einer neuen europäischen Sicherheitsordnung diskutiert haben. O’Hanlon habe dabei die Weisheit einer fortschreitenden NATO-Expansion in Osteuropa hinterfragt und angesichts einer zunehmenden Feindseligkeit Russlands die Anerkennung einer neutralen Zone vorgeschlagen. "O’Hanlon outlined his proposal to lower tensions with Russia: a permanent zone of neutrality in which the currently non-aligned states—Finland, Sweden, Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, and Serbia (and perhaps other neutral Balkan countries) — will never join NATO or a Russian equivalent. In exchange for a halt to all future NATO expansion, the agreement would demand that Russia 'keep its hands off' the neutral countries, in O’Hanlon’s words, reach fair agreements on existing territorial disputes, and acknowledge these nations’ right to join institutions such as the European Union. If Russia reneges on its end of the bargain, O’Hanlon argues that little would be lost: The West could enact an even tougher stance against Russia and reopen the possibility of NATO membership for the neutral countries."

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12.06.2017

"On foreign policy, Trump isn’t a complete disaster"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/06/12/on-foreign-policy-trump-isnt-a-complete-disast
er/

Trotz der verbreiteten Kritik am US-Präsidenten stellen David Gordon und Michael E. O’Hanlon fest, dass Donald Trump außenpolitisch einiges richtig gemacht habe. "Although there is certainly a lot to worry about in Trump’s approach to the world (leaving aside his domestic policies, a separate and equally serious subject), there are several hopeful signs. (...) First is the quality of his national security team—which Trump handpicked, to his credit. (...) The cruise missile strike in Syria in April was a proportionate response to an abominable action by the government of President Bashar al-Assad. (...) Trump has wisely chosen not to use military force in response to North Korean provocations, attempting instead to work with China to apply economic pressure. (...) Then there is the NATO Article 5 question. To be sure, Trump insults allies in ways we find off-putting at best, and often disturbing. But the recent outcry over his supposed abandonment of NATO has been badly overdone. (...) This president is not exactly our cup of tea when it comes to foreign policy. But he has shown some openness to advice, rationality and dialogue — and his critics should be careful about closing off all avenues of communication with an administration that is still feeling its way."

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05.06.2017

"The $110 billion arms deal to Saudi Arabia is fake news"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/06/05/the-110-billion-arms-deal-to-saudi-arabia-is-fake-news/

Bruce Riedel bezweifelt, dass der im letzten Monat verkündete Waffendeal zwischen Saudi-Arabien und den USA tatsächlich zustande gekommen sei. Es gebe zwar Absichtserklärungen, aber keine rechtlichen Vereinbarungen. "I’ve spoken to contacts in the defense business and on the Hill, and all of them say the same thing: There is no $110 billion deal. Instead, there are a bunch of letters of interest or intent, but not contracts. Many are offers that the defense industry thinks the Saudis will be interested in someday. So far nothing has been notified to the Senate for review. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency, the arms sales wing of the Pentagon, calls them 'intended sales.' None of the deals identified so far are new, all began in the Obama administration."

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23.05.2017

"Want a new counterterrorism strategy? Be careful what you wish for"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/05/23/want-a-new-counterterrorism-strategy-be-carefu
l-what-you-wish-for/

Eric Rosand und Alistair Millar warnen die US-Regierung davor, in ihrer neuen Anti-Terror-Strategie die sogenannten "soft tools" zu vernachlässigen, da erst diese eine wirklich nachhaltige Bekämpfung des Terrorismus bewirken könnten. "Yet it has been reported that the new counterterrorism strategy 'makes little mention of promoting human rights, development, good governance and other ‘soft power’ tools that Washington has embraced in the past to help foreign governments reduce grievances that feed extremism.' A counterterrorism strategy that fails to acknowledge that effectively reducing the threat of terrorism benefits and at times depends on these 'soft' tools and broader foreign policy efforts—whether to promote the peaceful resolution of political disputes and grievances, economic growth, development, good governance, or human rights and the rule of law—is unlikely to lead to a reduction in terrorist violence over the long term. While much of the international community seems to have recognized, based on lessons over the past decade, that 'we can’t kill or arrest' our way out of the terrorist threat—and that a broad and integrated set of non-kinetic tools need to be deployed alongside military and intelligence ones—the new administration seems to have skipped school."

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15.03.2017

"Can lone wolves be stopped?"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/03/15/can-lone-wolves-be-stopped/

Daniel L. Byman bezeichnet 2016 als das Jahr des terroristischen Einzeltäters. Die Taktik sei zwar ein Zeichen der Schwäche von Terrororganisationen, trotzdem werde die Bedrohung durch "Lone Wolf terrorists" künftig wohl weiter zunehmen. Dies gefährde auch die Beziehungen zwischen muslimischen und nichtmuslimischen Gemeinschaften im Westen. "Perhaps most worrisome, Lone Wolf shootings are becoming part of the terrorist zeitgeist and as such, feed on themselves. As seems to have happened with school shootings, where Columbine killers Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold created a model for other violent misfits, an idea of terrorist violence is hanging in the air, and that attracts a small group of individuals who might otherwise have turned their thoughts in another direction. If we focus only on casualties, Lone Wolves should remain of limited concern, however horrifying any individual attack might be. The trouble is that Lone Wolves are having a real, indeed a strategic, impact today by helping change the politics in the United States and Europe and, in so doing, are shattering the good relations between Muslim and non-Muslim communities so vital to counterterrorism and to liberal democracy in general."

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24.02.2017

"Surprise! Trump’s foreign policy is turning out okay"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/02/24/surprise-trumps-foreign-policy-is-turning-out-
okay/

Trotz ihrer Kritik am Verhalten Donald Trumps sind Michael E. O’Hanlon und David Gordon der Ansicht, dass das sicherheitspolitische Team des US-Präsidenten durchaus überzeugend und vor allem beruhigend auftritt. "To be sure, it is far too soon to breathe a sigh of relief about this administration; Trump’s mercurial temperament has not abated since his inauguration. For whatever the reason, though, he has chosen a national security team that appears excellent — and that has already calmed many nerves around the world."

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22.02.2017

"Building 'situations of strength' - A national security strategy for the United States"

https://www.brookings.edu/research/building-situations-of-strength/

Die Brookings Institution hat einen neuen Bericht mit Empfehlungen für die US-amerikanische Sicherheitspolitik der kommenden Jahre veröffentlicht. An der Studie haben frühere Mitarbeiter der beiden US-Präsidenten George W. Bush und Barack Obama mitgewirkt. "Since the late 1940s, in the wake of World War II, the centerpiece of U.S. grand strategy has been to build and lead an international order composed of security alliances, international institutions, and economic openness, to advance the causes of freedom, prosperity, and peace. In 2016, for the first time, the American people elected a president who was highly critical of this international order and its constituent parts. This did not come out of the blue. Anxieties about globalization and America’s role in the world have been brewing for some time. Americans now face a consequential choice — to continue to lead and shape the postwar order or to leave it behind."

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30.12.2016

"No, the U.S. doesn’t need to expand its nuclear weapons program"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2016/12/30/no-the-u-s-doesnt-need-to-expand-its-nuclear-w
eapons-program/

Steven Pifer, Direktor der Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative, erläutert dagegen, warum er eine Ausweitung des amerikanischen Atomwaffenprogramms für überflüssig hält. "Yes, there are diverse threats out there. But one should keep perspective. The North Koreans are building their small nuclear arsenal, and no one knows for certain whether they have miniaturized a weapon that could fit atop a ballistic missile. But nothing North Korea does could stop the U.S. military — with its current nuclear capability — from obliterating the small country. (...) Nuclear policymaking should not be conducted by Twitter. A close and careful look at the data shows that the United States currently has sufficient nuclear forces for deterrent requirements plus plans to maintain those forces in the future. There is no need to increase their number."

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18.11.2016

"The geopolitics of China’s rise in Latin America"

https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-geopolitics-of-chinas-rise-in-latin-america/

Ted Piccone hat sich in diesem Bericht für die Brookings Institution mit der Frage beschäftigt, ob China mit seinen beträchtlichen Investitionen in Lateinamerika politische Ziele verfolgen könnte. "In the past 15 years, China has become the most significant new economic actor in Latin America and the Caribbean. China-Latin America trade increased from almost negligible in 1990, to $10 billion in 2000, to $270 billion in 2012, although the largest portion of this exchange takes place between South America and China. (...) The China-Latin America economic relationship has had direct effects on some Latin American states’ willingness to join China in challenging a U.S.-led liberal world order — typically when their interests already align (...) For now, China’s rise has not unduly harmed core U.S. national security interests in the Western Hemisphere, but it has challenged U.S. influence and warrants continued attention."

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15.11.2016

"Donald Trump should take a cue from 'No-Drama Obama'"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2016/11/15/donald-trump-should-take-a-cue-from-no-drama-o
bama/

Michael E. O’Hanlon hofft, dass sich Donald Trump in seiner Außenpolitik gegenüber Russland und China ein Beispiel am moderaten Stil Barack Obamas nehmen wird. "'No-drama Obama,' as he was nicknamed early in his presidency, had more wisdom about the virtues of patient, firm, yet quiet and non-escalatory ways of handling a resurgent Russia and a rising China than most other American politicians or strategists. It is important that his successor, and the new Congress, think twice before rushing to replace such approaches with much more muscular and confrontational strategies that could easily do more harm than good."

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09.09.2016

"Order at risk: Japan, Korea, and the Northeast Asian paradox"

https://www.brookings.edu/research/order-at-risk-japan-korea-and-the-northeast-asian-paradox/

Die Brookings Institution bietet den Bericht "Order at risk: Japan, Korea, and the Northeast Asian paradox" von Jonathan D. Pollack als pdf-Download an. Pollack hat sich mit dem "Paradox" der Entwicklung Nordostasiens beschäftigt, das heute als globaler Wachstumsmotor gilt und zugleich von sicherheitspolitischen Konflikten geprägt ist. "While both Japan and South Korea have reaffirmed the centrality of their alliances with the United States to their vital political and security interests, long-submerged forces are redefining national policies across Northeast Asia. These developments encompass renewed disputes over territorial sovereignty; heightened national identities as a source of domestic legitimation; and shifting power trajectories across the region. The ascendance of Chinese power, and the larger overlay of the long-term U.S.-China relationship, loom especially large in this process. (...) America’s role in regional geopolitics has helped keep the peace and enabled unparalleled prosperity for decades, but trends on both sides of the Pacific could prove very disruptive to regional order."

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25.08.2016

"Has Colombia achieved peace? 5 things you should know"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2016/08/25/has-colombia-achieved-peace-5-things-you-shoul
d-know/

Caitlyn Davis und Harold Trinkunas hegen Zweifel daran, dass die Friedensvereinbarungen zwischen der kolumbianischen Regierung und der FARC nachhaltig sein werden und stellen fest: "This is an exciting day for Colombians and they deserve to celebrate. However, this win is not one for the history books just yet. A lot still needs to happen before Colombia will actually be at peace with the FARC, and a lot can go wrong between now and then."

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29.05.2016

"The lost generation: Children in conflict zones"

http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2016/05/29-children-in-conflict-zones-abdelghafar-masri

Adel Abdel Ghafar und Fraus Masri machen darauf aufmerksam, dass die Konflikte im Nahen Osten zu einer ganzen Generation von geschätzten 13 Millionen Kindern ohne Schulausbildung geführt hätten. "Education provides children with the necessary skills to develop into productive members of society. Unfortunately, refugee children fleeing Syria, Iraq, Palestine, and Yemen struggle to find educational opportunities in the countries where they settle. In the most extreme cases, refugee youth have not attended school in years. For these children, the possibility of finding gainful employment as an adult becomes increasingly challenging. (...) The lack of education, coupled with a sense of despair and hopelessness creates the perfect conditions for the radicalisation of refugee children. Without education, refugee youth will not have the economic opportunities provided to children in areas not disturbed by conflict. UNICEF reported an increasing trend of child recruitment to fight for parties to conflict, especially in Syria."

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16.02.2016

"Fight or flight: America’s choice in the Middle East"

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2016/02/16-americas-choice-in-middle-east-pollack

Der nächste US-Präsident werde in seiner Nahostpolitik vor der grundlegenden Entscheidung stehen, die USA noch weiter aus den Angelegenheiten der Region zurückzuziehen oder sehr viel größere Anstrengungen zu ihrer Stabilisierung zu unternehmen, meint Kenneth M. Pollack. "(...) given how tempestuous the region has become, both options — stepping up and stepping back — will cost the United States far more than is typically imagined. Stabilizing the region would almost certainly require more resources, energy, attention, and political capital than most advocates of a forward-leaning U.S. posture recognize. Similarly, giving up more control and abandoning more commitments in the region would require accepting much greater risks than most in this camp acknowledge. The costs of stepping up are more manageable than the risks of stepping back, but either option would be better than muddling through."

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16.10.2015

"A three-sided disaster: The American, Russian, and Iranian strategic triangle in Syria"

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/10/16-us-russia-iran-syrian-interests-aleksash
enko

Sergey Aleksashenko hat die Interessen der USA, Russlands und des Irans in seinem Beitrag zur komplizierten Situation in Syrien in einer Tabelle gegenübergestellt. Trotz des gemeinsamen Ziels der Zerschlagung der Terrormiliz "Islamischer Staat" bleibe eine Allianz der drei Parteien unwahrscheinlich. "It may sound surprising, but the weakest partner in the triangle is the United States. By virtue of its dominant position in the world over the past 70 years, the United States has lost the habit of building political alliances based on equal partnerships and of taking into account the interests of other parties. This is especially difficult in alliances with countries whose principles, values, and interests are very different from America’s. (...) So, a Russia-Iran alliance — which has de facto emerged — seems likely to be the most stable and long-lasting."

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29.09.2015

"The prince of counterterrorism"

http://www.brookings.edu/research/essays/2015/the-prince-of-counterterrorism

Bruce Riedel stellt den saudi-arabischen Kronprinzen Muhammad bin Nayef vor, der das Königreich bald als erster Vertreter einer neuen Generation anführen könnte. Die USA sähen der Thronfolge positiv entgegen, da Muhammad bin Nayef als entschiedener Feind der Al-Qaida und des Irans gelte. Soziale oder politische Reformen seien vom Kronprinzen allerdings nicht zu erwarten. "MBN, as he is known, will be the first of his generation to rule the kingdom — unless, of course, the king reshuffles the deck again. U.S. officials are keeping their fingers crossed, since MBN is the darling of America’s counterterrorism and intelligence services, having performed several critical services for the U.S. in his capacity as deputy minister of the interior and then minister of the interior — the office that oversees all domestic security matters. Unlike his father, who preceded him in those positions, he is pro-American, almost certainly more so than any other member of the Saudi leadership."

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18.09.2015

"Why aren't Americans more resilient in the face of terrorism?"

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/09/18-terrorism-resilience-failure

Daniel L. Byman fragt, warum die US-Bevölkerung die Terrorismusgefahr trotz der relativ geringen Zahl erfolgreicher Anschläge innerhalb der USA immer noch nicht angemessen einschätzen könne. "Perhaps these misperceptions stem from politics. Polls consistently show terrorism to be an issue that mobilizes the American people. As a result, politicians of both parties have an incentive to raise the specter of terrorism to pursue policies they favor for other reasons. (...) But perhaps the problem is inherent to low-probability but highly publicized events (think shark attacks) that are difficult for people to normalize. The result, in any event, is a failure of resilience."

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01.09.2015

"The Believer"

http://www.brookings.edu/research/essays/2015/thebeliever?cid=00900019020014801US0001

William McCants mit einem ausführlichen Porträt des Anführers der Terrormiliz "Islamischer Staat", Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. "For some, Baghdadi is just a cipher, manipulated by non-religious ex-Baathists or thugs who are using the Islamic State to attain power. Or he’s a cog in a machine, an expression of an impersonal institution or historical forces. These views at least agree that Baghdadi is not his own man; his sins are the sins of others, perhaps Saddam Hussein, perhaps George W. Bush, perhaps a cabal of former regime loyalists. If Baghdadi disappears, the argument goes, he will just be replaced by a new mindless figurehead. (...) But the bare facts of Baghdadi’s biography show an unusually capable man. He helped found an insurgent group, finished a Ph.D. while managing the religious affairs of the Islamic State, and has been able to prevail amid the State’s cutthroat politics because of his skill at coalition building and his ability to intimidate his rivals."

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