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"Lessons from the Liberation of Sinjar"

Denise Natali betrachtet die Rückeroberung der irakischen Stadt Sinjar als wichtigen taktischen Erfolg der von den USA angeführten Anti-IS-Koalition. Aus strategischer Sicht beständen allerdings weiterhin Probleme, die vor ähnlichen Offensiven gegen IS-Hochburgen wie Mosul und Raqqa gelöst werden müssten. "While reinforcing the coalition–Kurdish alliance, the Sinjar offensive has exposed the deep divisions within the Kurdish camp, and the limitations of future Peshmerga engagements outside their claimed territories. Nor has reclaiming Sinjar enhanced Sunni Arab support for this war — requisite for effectively countering ISIL in Iraq and Syria. In some ways, the Sinjar aftermath has done just the opposite by reinforcing the ethno-sectarian conflicts into which ISIL has been superimposed. If the coalition wants to gain real momentum in countering ISIL in strategically significant strongholds such as Mosul and Raqqah, then it must pay closer attention to the second- and third-order consequences of its campaign on the local balance of power between ethnic and sectarian groups, particularly in Iraq’s disputed territories and where Sunni Arab support is vital."

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"Did Anonymous Just Save The World From ISIL?"

Wie effektiv sind die Online-Angriffe des Hacker-Kollektivs "Anonymous" gegen Anhänger der Terrormiliz "Islamischer Staat"? Clint Watts schreibt, dass die bisherigen Aktionen gemischte Reaktionen hervorgerufen hätten, da offenbar auch unschuldige Nutzer sozialer Netzwerke getroffen wurden. Er empfiehlt den Hackern, sich auf andere Taktiken zu verlegen. "Anonymous hacker skills would be of more value if they focused on infiltration and penetration rather than account and forum shutdowns. Hackers in the past have penetrated governments and corporations revealing internal documents and communications. Should hackers focus on ISIL forum administrators, the accounts of key ISIL leaders, and their encrypted communications, Anonymous could expose the group’s inner workings, reveal operational vulnerabilities, illuminate petty terrorist infighting and erode the groups support from international audiences. Fortunately, a faction of Anonymous seems to be moving in this direction."

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"How the Islamic State’s Favorite Strategy Book Explains Recent Terrorist Attacks"

Das zehn Jahre alte Handbuch "The Management of Savagery" des Al-Qaida-Anhängers Abu Bakr Naji könne Erklärungen für die neue Terrorstrategie des "Islamischen Staates" liefern, schreibt William McCants von der Brookings Institution. "Naji acknowledges that fighting in the open and taking territory makes jihadists extremely vulnerable to attack by powerful nations. But the jihadists are not powerless. They can carry out 'vexation operations' against their enemies where they live. The attacks will compel their enemies to disperse their forces to deal with multiple attacks in multiple places, thus alleviating pressure on nascent jihadist states. Such attacks have additional benefits: They deplete the financial resources of one’s enemy, especially if it invades with a large ground force; they remove the enemy’s aura of invincibility that discourages Muslims from rising up; they stir Muslim anger in the aftermath of inevitable reprisals by the foreign powers; and they boost the morale of the jihadists and attract more recruits to their cause. Terrorist attacks can also be used to punish powerful nations for attacking jihadist statelets. This is called 'paying the price.' Such attacks should be carried out by allied jihadist groups outside of the statelets, which will make the enemy feel surrounded. As a consequence, the enemy will hesitate to carry out attacks against the jihadists on their home turf in the future."

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"How the U.S. Business Community Can Take on the Islamic State"

Amerikanische Unternehmen könnten sich am Kampf gegen den "Islamischen Staat" beteiligen, indem sie Banken, die an den Geldgeschäften des IS beteiligt sind, nach geltendem US-Recht verklagen, schlägt Kevin Carroll vor. "Since declaring a caliphate in June 2014, this group of bloodthirsty extremists has been increasingly taking on the trappings and characteristics of a state. One of the main facets of this effort has been gaining access to the international financial system. The Islamic State seized at least 110 bank branches in the Levant that maintain correspondent relationships with global banks. Terrorist fundraisers publicly direct donations to other, identified banks in the Gulf and wider Middle East, and terrorists use such banks to launder hostage ransom payments. Some of these banks are subject to personal jurisdiction in the United States and hold substantial assets here."

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"5 Things Americans Need to Know About the New Canadian Prime Minister’s Foreign Policy"

Stephen Saideman nennt fünf außenpolitische Richtungsentscheidungen der neuen liberalen Regierung in Kanada, die auch für die USA von Bedeutung sein werden. "What are the five key things Americans need to know? 1. Canada is not going to spend much more money on defense, but not much less either. (...) 2. Canada will remain engaged, but probably opt to participate more in institutionalized multilateral efforts and less ad hoc coalitions of the willing. (...) 3. Canada will take more steps to deal with climate change. (...) 4. Expect more Canadian diplomacy. (...) 5. Despite pulling out of the anti-ISIL bombing mission, Canada is likely to have better relations with the United States in the days ahead."

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"Is the West’s Culture of Heroism Under Threat?"

Kori Schake stellt das Buch "The Heroic Heart" von Tod Lindberg vor, der sich mit der Frage beschäftigt hat, welche Rolle der "Heroismus" in heutigen westlichen Gesellschaften spiele. Lindberg fürchte, dass moderne Interpretationen des Heroismus den Westen verwundbar gemacht hätten. "Lindberg argues that heroism in the ancient world centered on selfish excellence at destruction, whereas our modern conception of heroism is constructed from a selflessness of sacrifice in generosity to others. (...) Lindberg is certainly right that our colloquial use of the term hero has broadened: Teachers that inspire underprivileged children and civic leaders in blighted communities are described as heroic by virtue of their commitment to positive change rather than their exposure to risk of death. And he rightly ridicules its extension to celebrities and 'truth tellers.' But even in the ancient world, civic virtues were appreciated alongside martial ones: Aristotle describes the civic as lesser because military heroism is necessary to produce the conditions for civic life."

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"Frogs of War: Explaining the New French Military Interventionism"

Frankreich gilt nicht erst seit der Beteiligung am Luftkrieg gegen den IS in Syrien als bereitwillige militärische Interventionsmacht. Jean-Baptiste Jeangène Vilmer und Olivier Schmitt schreiben, dass Frankreich mit dieser neuen Rolle nach dem Ende des Kalten Krieges u.a. das eigene Selbstverständnis als "Grande Nation" stärken wollte. "On a more realist note, the desire to preserve its sphere of influence in Africa and the Middle East also plays a role in French interventionism. Owing to its colonial heritage, France continued to maintain a network of special contacts and partners in these regions that supported the political and financial interests of many significant groups in France. The desire to preserve its independence, especially against American influence, is another important factor. Though France and the United States remain ideologically very close owing to shared universalist, exceptionalist, and interventionist self-images, these similarities sometimes lead to competition rather than cooperation. Finally, Paris acts because it can. France is part of an exclusive club of military powers capable of deploying first into a theater of operations and projecting power globally."

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"The State of Russian Strategy: Ukraine, Syria, and Beyond"l

Ryan Evans hat sich in diesem Podcast mit dem Russland-Experten Dmitry Gorenburg über das russische Militär und die Strategie Moskaus in der Ukraine und in Syrien unterhalten. "Dmitry Gorenburg, an occasional WOTR contributor and expert on Russian military affairs at the CNA Corporation, sat down with Ryan Evans to chat about the state of Russia’s armed forces, its campaigns in Ukraine and Syria, Putin as a strategist, and how one becomes an expert on Russian military affairs."

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"Putin’s Strategy is Far Better than You Think"

Michael Kofman reagiert auf einen Beitrag von Joshua Rovner auf War on the Rocks, in dem Rovner dem russischen Präsidenten Putin strategische Weitsicht abgesprochen hatte. Kofman glaubt, dass Russland außenpolitisch trotz offensichtlicher Kosten eine durchaus effektive Strategie verfolge, die in den USA häufig nicht verstanden werde. "For Moscow, this confrontation is probably a more comfortable and normal state than the past two decades of cyclical relations with the United States. Punitive sanctions and containment have replaced integration, but where exactly does that leave the West’s strategy for Russia? The United States is not ready to commit to containment and regime rollback, while Europe is wholly unprepared to return to a Cold War-like adversarial relationship with Russia. Nobody wants Russia’s collapse, either. Blaming Putin’s lack of strategy seems to be a knee-jerk response for the rapid conclusion of two decades of Western policy toward Russia and the absence of any replacement."

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"Extreme Makeover, Jihadist Edition: Al-Qaeda’s Rebranding Campaign"

Die Al-Qaida versuche, auf die Herausforderung durch den "Islamischen Staat" mit einer neuen Imagekampagne zu reagieren, schreiben Daveed Gartenstein-Ross und Nathaniel Barr. Ziel sei es, sich als weniger gewalttätige Alternative zu präsentieren. "While the Islamic State’s emergence has harmed al-Qaeda in myriad ways, it has also presented al-Qaeda a long-awaited opportunity. For years, al-Qaeda sought to remake its image, hoping to rid itself of the reputation for brutality that it earned in large part through the excesses of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) — the group that would later rechristen itself the Islamic State. Thanks to two parallel developments — the Islamic State’s emergence and rising Sunni–Shia sectarian tensions in the Middle East — al-Qaeda’s rebranding campaign has been invigorated. Al-Qaeda has taken on the image of a more reasonable — and perhaps controllable — alternative to the Islamic State."

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"Is NATO Treating Poland Like a Buffer State?"

Der polnische Präsident Andrzej Duda hat der NATO in einem Interview in der Financial Times vorgeworfen, Polen und andere östliche Bündnispartner als "Pufferstaaten" zu betrachten. John R. Deni vom Army War College hält den Vorwurf für haltlos und schreibt, dass Duda eine permanente Stationierung von NATO-Truppen in Osteuropa erreichen wolle. Dies bleibe jedoch aus politischen Gründen unwahrscheinlich. "In addition to those political issues, there remains an important policy difference between those like Duda — who are unambiguous in their desire for a permanent NATO presence in the East — and allies such as Germany. For the latter, permanent forward presence in the East would not simply be a violation of a nearly 20-year-old agreement with Russia, but it could also represent an unhelpful escalation of the West’s standoff against Russia over Ukraine. For all of these reasons, Duda is likely to be disappointed in his pursuit of 'NATO bases' in Poland or elsewhere in Eastern Europe. The challenge now facing the other allies – especially in light of the fact that the next NATO summit will occur in Warsaw – is to convince Duda to back down from these demands in a face-saving way."

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"Ukraine and the Art of Exhaustion"

Der Militärexperte Lawrence Freedman vom King’s College London analysiert den Konflikt in der Ostukraine in diesem längeren Beitrag für War on the Rocks aus militärstrategischer Sicht. Beide Seiten scheinen Freedman zufolge darauf aus zu sein, den Gegner in einem langgezogenen Konflikt zu erschöpfen. "Exhaustion here does not so much describe a physical state of being unable to continue with the struggle, but more of a mental state – a sense of weariness and futility that leads to a readiness to accept a political compromise that would previously have been rejected. Exhaustion can be the result not only of frustration with a military position, but also of economic pressure and political discontent."

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"Denmark: Defense Woes in the Little U.S. Ally That Could"

Dänemark gilt Gary Schaub, Jr. zufolge seit 1999 als enger militärischer Verbündeter der USA, der sich an vielen internationalen US-Militäroperationen schnell und bereitwillig mit eigenen Flugzeugen und Soldaten beteiligt habe. Kürzungen des Verteidigungshaushalts und die lange Dauer der Militärengagements könnten allerdings dazu führen, dass diese Politik nicht länger aufrechterhalten werden könne. "It is almost certain that the United States or other coalition partners will extend help to Denmark to keep its aircraft in the fight, but they should make clear to Danish parliamentarians that they are in this predicament because they have consistently underfunded their military. The United States certainly appreciates Denmark’s reliable support but it has been its ability to sustain meaningful military contributions to coalition efforts that have won Denmark plaudits. If its leaders do not value that ability enough to fund it, then Denmark’s reputation will lose its luster and help will not be forthcoming as readily as it may be today."

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"The Islamic State Comes to Russia?"

Russland müsse befürchten, dass viele IS-Anhänger aus dem Krieg in Syrien mit noch radikaleren Ansichten in ihre Heimatländer im Nordkaukasus zurückkehren, schreibt Elena Pokalova vom College of International Security Affairs der National Defense University in Washington. Bisher reagiere Moskau auf diese Gefahr fast nur militärisch. "Russia should limit its overreliance on the military counterinsurgent methods and diversify its counterterrorist approaches. Meanwhile, the rest of the world should learn the lessons from the North Caucasus, which demonstrate the pitfalls of strategies that push insurgencies further underground without addressing their underlying causes."

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"Yes, Germany is Free Riding on American Security"

Verlässt sich Deutschland in seiner Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitik zu sehr auf die USA? Ulrich Kühn hat diese Frage in einem Beitrag für War on The Rocks vor wenigen Tagen verneint, der Sicherheitsberater Dustin Dehez widerspricht ihm hier. "The real question, one that Kühn failed to ask, is what exactly is free riding? If it were to mean that Germany does absolutely, positively nothing to contribute to European defense, then Kühn would be correct: Germany is not free riding. It is, after all, doing something. If, however, free riding is meant as continuously and substantially underperforming and not spending the resources that the country could afford and would be sufficient to meet the challenge Europe faces, with an implicit understanding that if push comes to shove, the Americans would show up — well, than yes, Germany is free riding."

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"Are Germans Free-riding on American Security?"

Ulrich Kühn vom Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik an der Universität Hamburg wehrt sich angesichts der jüngsten PEW-Umfrage zur NATO-Bündnissolidarität und der Kritik an niedrigen Verteidigungshaushalten gegen den Vorwurf, dass Deutschland zu wenig zur europäischen Sicherheit beitrage. "German interests are closely connected to the institutional post-WWII network (NATO, the EU, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) that developed in Europe, particularly after the end of the Cold War. The recent aggressive behavior of Russia runs counter to German interests. There are a number of compelling facts and figures showing that Germany is certainly taking counter measures vis-à-vis Russia. (...) Germany is also very active in terms of military defense. In the coming years, Germany will invest more than eight billion euros ($8.9 billion) in defense, increasing the number of main battle tanks it operates by roughly 100 to 330 in total. (...) Taken together, these facts and figures stand in stark contrast to the apparent unwillingness of Germans to contribute to the security and defense of NATO. Obviously, Germans are not free-riders."

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"Confessions of a Jihadi Nerd: A Guide to Reading the New Bin Laden Documents"

Die US-Regierung hat bislang geheime und zum Teil sehr persönliche Dokumente des 2011 getöteten Al-Qaida-Chefs Osama bin Laden veröffentlicht, die offenbar während der Militäroperation im pakistanischen Abbottabad erbeutet wurden. Clint Watts, der sich seit Langem mit Dokumenten dieser Art beschäftigt, gibt einige Empfehlungen zur Lektüre. "After spending a painful number of hours sifting through al Qaeda documents, panning for gold, I have the following recommendations for where to start when you see an al Qaeda document release. If you are new to al Qaeda’s internal documents and these declassifications, here’s my triaging strategy. An important note, the U.S. government has released only a few documents — a small percentage of the total. All of the documents surely have some significance."

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"What You Need to Know about Modern Mercenaries"

War on the Rocks präsentiert das Video eines Vortrags des Sicherheitsexperten Sean McFate, der sich in seinem Buch "The Modern Mercenary" mit dem modernen Söldnertum auseinandergesetzt hat. "Watch Sean McFate discuss his new book, The Modern Mercenary, at the National Defense University. Sean offers an insider’s understanding of the opaque private military world, how its presence can change the future of war and world order as we know it."

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"America Did Hybrid Warfare Too"

In einem weiteren Artikel zur "hybriden Kriegführung" erinnert Todd Greentree daran, dass die USA während des Kalten Krieges ebenfalls militärische "Grauzonen" genutzt hätten. Insbesondere in Zentralamerika hätten die USA unter Berufung auf die Monroe-Doktrin alles unternommen, um den Einfluss linker politischer Kräfte zurückzudrängen. "(...) the method was a low-fear, low-cost, economy-of-force way to manage superpower confrontation that remained well below the threshold that might have provoked a more energetic response. (...) That the United States and NATO, a conventional defensive alliance, should be confounded by similar maneuvers on the part of Russia and left groping to 'connect the dots' from Crimea to the Baltic is not a surprise. What should not be a matter for confusion is that hybrid warfare is not the exclusive province of a nefarious Putin, but rather a method available to any power with the motivation to employ it."

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"The Problem with Hybrid Warfare"

Europa könne heute als "Versuchslabor" der "hybriden Kriegführung" betrachtet werden, schreibt Nadia Schadlow. In Osteuropa werde der Begriff als Vorwand des Westens abgelehnt, einer Konfrontation mit Russland aus dem Weg zu gehen. Tatsächlich habe die NATO bisher keine Antwort auf die russischen Operationen an den Grenzen der östlichen Mitgliedsländer gefunden. "Hybrid threats provide the 'perfect' conundrum: the injection of so much uncertainty that NATO collapses under its own principle of allied consensus. At what point does the alliance decide if the Lithuanian President, Dalia Grybauskaite, is correct when she remarked that Lithuania was 'already under attack,' with the first stage of confrontation taking place – informational war, propaganda and cyberattack? (...) Moscow appears to be deliberately staying under the Article V threshold, while still pursuing its aggressive aims and seeking to destabilize NATO members."

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"(W)Archives: Another Munich or Another Cuban Missile Crisis?"

Tom Wein empfiehlt die Lektüre der Vorträge des einflussreichen US-Diplomaten George F. Kennan, der sich bereits 1957 Gedanken über die Logik militärischer Konfrontationen im Atomzeitalter gemacht habe. Kennans Überlegungen könnten auf die aktuelle Ukraine-Krise angewendet werden. "(...) Kennan made two realizations of considerable contemporary relevance. The first is that it is essential for the continental European powers to defend themselves, without the assistance of nuclear-armed states. The second is that this is best done by the formation of militias designed to provide resistance to a Soviet occupying force, since the prospect of stopping their divisions at a rigidly defended border is remote."

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"How Many Fighters Does the Islamic State Really Have?"

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross von der Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) hat die weit auseinandergehenden Schätzungen zur tatsächlichen Truppenstärke des Islamischen Staates im Kontext der vom IS eroberten Gebiete analysiert. Sein Fazit: "It still isn’t clear precisely how many fighters ISIL has, but its total force is likely to be closer to 100,000 than to 30,000 (although, unlike the martyrdom-seeking fanatics in its ranks, ISIL’s conscripts are more likely to turn tail and run in a tough situation). The low-end estimates are simply too low to be realistic, while the high-end estimates — of which many observers are intuitively skeptical — are far more plausible than they first appear once one attempts to break them down more systematically."

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"The Escalation Advocates are Wrong on Ukraine"

Sean Kay, Politikwissenschaftler an der Ohio Wesleyan University, empfiehlt der US-Regierung, auf die erneute Eskalation der Kämpfe in der Ostukraine geduldig zu reagieren und auf Waffenlieferungen an die Regierung in Kiew zu verzichten. "Taktische" Reaktionen des Westens auf Russlands Vorgehen in der Ukraine seien politisch riskant. "Advocates of escalation in Ukraine are sustaining a respectable and logical extension of a worldview that governed the last two decades of American policy towards Europe, which culminated in the false promises of NATO’s 2008 declaration that Ukraine and Georgia would one day join NATO. That worldview, however, ran into the ditch in eastern Ukraine last March. Military escalation at this time would entangle America in a conflict adjacent to a declining, paranoid, and nuclear-armed Russia. What Russia has done in eastern Ukraine is unacceptable and the Russian people will eventually look back and wonder what their 'leadership' was thinking. Now, however, is not the time to risk making a bad situation even worse by launching America onto a slippery slope of dangerous military escalation."

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"Can You Handle the Truth? The Case for Returning Guantánamo Bay to Cuban Sovereignty"

Bei den ersten amerikanisch-kubanischen Gesprächen seit der Ankündigung des diplomatischen Neustarts hat Kuba u.a. die Rückgabe Guantanamos gefordert. James Lockhart erinnert an die Geschichte der US-Enklave und empfiehlt der US-Regierung, der kubanischen Forderung nachzukommen. "Returning Guantánamo then, to Cuban sovereignty as part of the ongoing U.S.-Cuban normalization process would liquidate an obsolete naval position, deny a useful trial exhibit to prosecutorial critics who characterize the United States as an empire of bases, and also make meaningful progress in changing our relationship with Havana. (...) This, of course, leaves the issue of what exactly to do with the terrorist Khalid Sheik Mohammad and the other detainees who remain there unresolved. This represents an intractable issue the Obama administration or its successors would have to resolve before returning Guantánamo."

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"After Peshawar, Expect Business as Usual in Pakistan"

C. Christine Fair ist sicher, dass das Schulmassaker in Peschawar den "Tiefen Staat" in Pakistan nicht dazu bewegen wird, die jahrzehntelange Strategie der Kooperation mit extremistischen Gruppen aufzugeben. "After all, Pakistan has used Islamist militants as tools of foreign policy since 1947. With the acquisition of an existential nuclear deterrent as early as 1980, Pakistan became ever more bolder in its reliance upon these proxies. (...) LeT [Lashkar-e-Taiba] is an important ally of the Pakistani deep state. Unlike other militant groups that fractured and gave way to the TTP [Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan or 'Pakistani Taliban'], LeT has never attacked within Pakistan. It has remained a loyal proxy, restricting its operations to Afghanistan (...) and to India, in and beyond Kashmir. LeT remains loath to upset Pakistan’s military and intelligence agency, the ISI. (...) LeT’s very existence in Pakistan and the unfettered active support it enjoys across the Pakistani state belies Pakistan’s assertion that it will not distinguish between good and bad terrorists."

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"'Supporting the Troops' in Germany and the United States"

Der ehemalige Bundeswehroffizier Chris Dehn vergleicht die Unterstützung des Militärs in Deutschland und den USA. Sein Fazit: Die öffentliche Anerkennung der Soldaten sei in den USA um einiges größer, dafür erhielten Veteranen in Deutschland eine bessere Versorgung und staatliche Förderung. "For all the high regard America’s military receives in public, there are too many flaws in the programs meant to provide exiting soldiers with the support they deserve. Germany on the other hand, for all its shortcomings in publicly acknowledging the men and women who risk their lives abroad, has on some level understood that 'supporting the troops' requires more than stickers and concerts."

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"GOP? The NSA may actually be the biggest winner in the election"

Die Untersuchung von CIA-Spionage und NSA-Überwachung im US-Senat sei bisher vor allem von demokratischen Senatoren vorangetrieben worden, schreiben Sue Myrick und Andy Polk. Dies dürfte sich mit der Übernahme des Senats durch die Republikaner ändern. "Last week’s results will end much of this public combativeness in 2015 as Senator Feinstein loses her gavel and as one of the Senate’s most vocal opponent to the NSA’s surveillance program, Colorado Senator Mark Udall, lost his race for reelection. While there have been some outspoken critics of agency actions and policies on the right, Senate Republicans on the Intel Committee will take a very different rhetorical approach and investigative style than their counterparts. (...) There were a lot of cheers in Republican offices and homes across the country Tuesday night. But the loudest may have come from folks at Fort Meade, Langley, and the shadows across the globe."

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"Russia and Ukraine: Not the Military Balance You Think"

Dmitry Gorenburg stellt den Sammelband "Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of the Crisis in Ukraine" der Herausgeber Colby Howard und Ruslan Pukhov vor, die sich eingehend mit den militärischen Aspekten der Ukraine-Krise beschäftigt und dabei auch russische und ukrainische Perspektiven berücksichtigt hätten. Ein Thema der Beiträge sei der stetige Verfall des ukrainischen Militärs, das bei der Neugründung des Landes noch als viertstärkste konventionelle Streitmacht der Welt eingeschätzt worden sei. "Overall, the book describes the factors that resulted in Ukrainian inaction in the face of Russia’s takeover of Crimea, while also highlighting the tenuous nature of the operation, which depended on Ukraine’s initial inaction for its success. While Ukraine’s military was undoubtedly much weaker than that of Russia, political factors such as the collapse of the government and Ukrainian soldiers’ initial reluctance to attack Russians, who in many cases lived and served nearby, were more important than the military balance in Russia’s victory. The implication is that the lessons of Crimea are not necessarily easily transferable to other places where Russia might seek to acquire territory, such as the Baltic states."

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"What Does the Recent Spate of Lone Wolf Terrorist Attacks Mean?"

Nach zwei kurz aufeinander folgenden Angriffen durch Einzeltäter in Kanada fragt Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, ob die Gefahr durch "Lone Wolf"-Terroristen in Nordamerika gestiegen sei. Er verweist auf das Buch "Understanding Lone Wolf Terrorism: Global Patterns, Motivations and Prevention", dessen Autor Ramon Spaaij sich eingehend mit dem Phänomen beschäftigt hat. "The biggest virtue of Spaaij’s work is that it provides a quantitative look at lone wolf terrorism across fifteen Western countries. This empirical approach can assist anyone concerned about the most recent incidents to assess them in light of historical patterns. (...) What does Spaaij’s data reveal? A few points that he makes can put the most recent incidents into some perspective. Lone wolf terrorism is increasing. (...) Lone wolf attacks are harder to stop, but tend to be less deadly, than those planned and executed by groups. (...) Lone wolf attackers are inspired by diverse ideologies, but jihadist motivations are increasing. (...) Lone wolves are more likely than other terrorists to be mentally ill."

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"Destroy ISIL’s Heavy Weapons and Vehicles: Level the Playing Field"

Der Luftkrieg der internationalen Koalition gegen den Islamischen Staat werde am effektivsten sein, wenn sich die Angriffe gegen die schweren Waffen der Extremisten richten, sind David Shlapak und David R. Frelinger überzeugt. "Tanks and artillery pieces can remain hidden in cities or caves, but by and large they must emerge and expose themselves if they are to support an attack. At the very least, they reveal themselves when fired to the array of sensors that the coalition has available. The persistent presence of coalition surveillance and combat aircraft overhead would make using these weapons — the weapons that have provided ISIL with much of its advantage over its adversaries — very risky. Experience in Iraq indicates that insurgents tend to lie low in the presence of lethal air power, which would be a victory in itself. An idle ISIL is one not expanding its territory, nor consolidating that which it already dominates."

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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