US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Modern Diplomacy




"The Importance of Maintaining The Balance of Power"

Rahul D. Manchanda erläutert in seinem Essay, warum das Prinzip des Gleichgewichts der Kräfte zwischen Großmächten in den internationalen Beziehungen auch heute noch von großer Bedeutung sei. Dies gelte entgegen der Ansicht mancher Experten auch für die USA nach dem Ende des Kalten Krieges. "For example, Council on Foreign Relations ('CFR') member and CNN host Fareed Zakaria asked 'Why is no one ganging up against the United States?' John Ikenberry and John M. Owen asked the same question. Two American Neo-Con leaders, Robert Kagan and William Kristol, completely agreed when they said that 'today’s international system is built not around a balance of power but around American hegemony.' However what these critics fail to notice is that these other major great powers are merely waiting for the USA to exhaust itself militarily, financially, and existentially, so that knocking it over would be an easy task – this is why the USA needs to pull out or cease from rampant military adventurism and instead focus on forging alliances and working relationships with the other great powers and to avoid any and all military conflict, completely and finally. This is the only way it can hope to maintain its power."

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"Why Australia Should Be Worried by a Clinton Presidency"

Australien, enger Bündnispartner der USA in Asien, sehe einem möglichen Wahlsieg Hillary Clintons mit einiger Sorge entgegen, schreibt Kenneth Szabo. Clinton wolle gegenüber China eine neue harte Linie verfolgen und könnte Australien zwingen, ebenfalls Druck auf Peking auszuüben. "Therein lies the rub. Australia’s breakneck economic growth – the country has notched up 100 quarters without a single recession – has largely depended on forging very close ties to China, sometimes with critical national security implications. And it is this Faustian pact that is giving Australian decision makers sleepless nights. Canberra is heavily dependent on its economic ties with China, its largest trading partner. (...) The US has already demanded more active contributions to the 'pivot' from Australia in the shape of freedom of navigation exercises around the disputed islands in the South China Sea, and an assertive Clinton administration is likely to up the pressure on Canberra even further in its quest to contain China. Undoubtedly, such actions would not sit well with Beijing. A growing anti-China stance runs the risk that China could retaliate through imposing trade restrictions on Australia."

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"American Non-Security Foreign Aid: The Swamp of Misguided Good Intentions"

Matthew Crosston schreibt, dass die US-Regierung jedes Jahr etwa 42,4 Milliarden US-Dollar für Entwicklungshilfe ausgebe. Davon würden immerhin 60% für nichtmilitärische Zwecke verwandt. Aus ethischer Sicht sei daran auf den ersten Blick kaum etwas auszusetzen, allerdings fließe ein Großteil dieser Summe in Länder, in denen das Geld durch korrupte Eliten praktisch entwendet werde. "For those who might be tempted to argue that this makes sense because it is obviously these countries that are in the most need of foreign assistance and guidance, that argument is fatally flawed: when a reminder is given about just what the CPI truly means – structural and institutional prevalence to manipulate, misuse, and exploit opportunities for elite gain – then it is obvious that in these countries all foreign aid inevitably flows through corrupt institutions before having any opportunity to be distributed to the communities most in need. (...) The unfortunate but unavoidable conclusion is that the majority of American foreign aid, the bulk of which is rarely questioned compared to the more controversial security-based assistance, is currently going to countries structurally engineered at the moment to simply steal it."

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"Chechnya’s Terrorist Network: The Evolution of Terrorism in Russia’s North Caucasus"

Julia Sweet stellt das Buch "Chechnya’s Terrorist Network: The Evolution of Terrorism in Russia’s North Caucasus" von Elena Pokalova vor, die die Entwicklung des radikalislamischen Terrorismus im Nordkaukasus im Kontext des jahrelangen russisch-tschetschenischen Konflikts analysiert hat. "Elena Pokalova provides an authoritative and deep analysis on the counterterrorist policy of the Russian government and the evolution of the Russia-Chechnya conflict, which became the only hot spot within the Russian Federation where the authority employed military forces in order to restore the state’s sovereignty. Not only the study presents a valuable overview, but it also considers the conflict in terms of the global scale, showing readers the much bigger perspective for this local conflict."

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"The Rise of the EU Army as NATO Falls?"

Die NATO befinde sich heute in einer Krise, die zur Bildung einer europäischen Armee und zur Neugründung eines transatlantischen Bündnisses führen könnte, meint Luis Durani. "The future is bleak but what may occur is the dissolution of NATO and a new organization that emerges for the EU. As a result, the US and UK might form a military alliance as well as a US and EU. This will help the US shift the financial burden to Europe while securing the same alliance as before. However, the rise of Russia has caused NATO to shift its forces to the east to help secure their eastern European allies. The series of events in Eastern Europe has led to many pundits arguing that NATO has a raison de vivre, but unfortunately time is not with them."

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"Russia and Israel improving relations: A geostrategic analysis"

Der italienische Wirtschaftswissenschaftler Giancarlo Elia Valori analysiert die Hintergründe der diplomatischen Annäherung zwischen Russland und Israel, die auch Folgen für die EU haben könnte. "Currently President Putin's primary interest is to strengthen the ties between Israel and Turkey while, for Prime Minister Netanhyahu, Russia could be an optimal power brokers to negotiate and finally achieve stable and lasting peace between the Jewish State and the Palestinian universe. (...) Hence an alliance between Israel, Greece and Cyprus - also at geoeconomic and energy level - can be foreshadowed, which could change much in the EU financial and political scenario. A European Union which, due to ignorance and foolishness, finds itself faced with an economic and geopolitical system in the South-East it cannot control. If the European Union still maintains the sanctions against Russia, the strategically smart countries (indeed very rare now) will try to replace the old and naïve European Union, as Israel is currently doing."

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"The Grand Cyber Spy Game: Russia, America, and China Stealing the World One Byte at a Time"

Die US-Regierung sei noch nicht sicher, wie sie auf die immer neuen "Cyberdiebstähle" aus China und Russland reagieren sollte, schreibt Matthew Crosston. "Should they be ignored so that other foreign policy initiatives can move forward? Are these initiatives acts of war or a new method of state gamesmanship? Do these collections of vast amounts of information count as high treason/espionage or simple economic theft? Environmental negotiations just about broke down several years ago when President Obama called out China for hacking several governmental systems during the negotiations. What does all of this signify as Russia and China become more important strategic world partners, while still at least semi-maintaining long-held intelligence and military adversarial attitudes toward the US? Welcome to the REAL cyber era, where multiple players try to steal the world one byte at a time while pretending to do nothing of the sort."

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"Nuclear weapons in Lithuania: defence against Russia or target for terrorists?"

Adomas Abromaitis warnt vor der Idee, eine militärische Aufrüstung der NATO-Staaten im Baltikum mit der Stationierung von Atomwaffen zu begleiten. Einige Verbündete in Osteuropa wünschten sich diesen Schritt, um ein deutliches "Signal" an Russland zu senden. "But there is the other side of the coin. In case of deploying nuclear warheads on the territory of the Baltic States they automatically turn to the attractive targets for terrorism. Inside the halls of NATO, the future of nuclear weapons is a simmering political issue, some of the nuclear faithful and their new Eastern European allies arguing that readiness should be beefed up, and that nuclear weapons should be used more for 'signaling' against a militaristic Russia. At the NATO Summit coming up in Warsaw in July, the possibility of a new 'strategic concept' involving nuclear weapons is rumored to be on the agenda. But the Baltic States themselves should decide if they want to counter Russia successfully with nuclear weapons but simultaneously becoming the targets for terrorist."

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"The 'dirty bomb' issue and the jihadist strategy in Europe"

Giancarlo Elia Valori analysiert die Möglichkeit eines Terroranschlags mit einer "schmutzigen Bombe" in Europa. "'Dirty bombs' have been called weapons of mass disruption and not weapons of mass destruction. This is the reason why they are suited to reach two goals at the same time: the psycho-political crushing of the enemy, namely us, as well as the increase in costs for defending ourselves from the jihad – costs which could force some European governments (the aforementioned canvassers and salesmen) into a strategic or anyway political surrender."

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"The Tyranny of the 1%: The Illusion of Overcoming Terror"

Der Westen müsse sich dem unauflösbaren Dilemma stellen, dass sich Terroranschläge wie in Brüssel in einer freien Gesellschaft niemals vollständig verhindern lassen werden, schreibt der Politikwissenschaftler Matthew Crosston. Für den modernen Terrorismus reiche es zwar, wenn nur 1% aller Angriffe erfolgreich ist, dies bedeute andererseits aber auch, dass 99% aller versuchten Anschläge verhindert werden. "(...) the intensity and shocking insecurity of that remaining miniscule percentage makes us contemplate Grand Strategies and call upon global unified collaborations to sweep up that final 1%. And that, alas, is the saddest news of all: the 1% will never be swept up. This is not because of the brilliance of the planners or the cunning of the executors. That miniscule 1% succeeds because we do in fact live in free societies. And any society that gets close to being perfectly free can never ever hope to also be perfectly secure. That irony may be bitter, but it is also glorious. I hope we can always remember that in the aftermath of such tragedies like Brussels."

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"Terrorist threat in Central Asia. One problem, different approaches"

Alessandro Lundini erläutert wie unterschiedlich die Länder Zentralasiens auf die neue Terrorismusbedrohung in der Region reagieren. Kasachstan habe sich dabei mit einer Strategie hervorgetan, die nicht nur auf unmittelbare Sicherheitsaspekte abziele. "Contrary to the other Central Asians republics, Astana has taken up the idea of a regional cooperation to this issue. Speaking to the 70th UN General Assembly last September, President Nursultan Nazarbayev advanced a proposal (previously presented in SCO summit in Ufa) for the creation of an 'anti-terrorist global network' under the aegis of the United Nations and with the involvement of regional defense structures, like CSTO. Kazakh President underlined that global threats requires global answers, stressing the necessity to re-unite the different alliances constituted in order to coordinate them. A vision – this – that brings Russia and Kazakhstan even closer on security issue. Another element to underline about Kazakh strategy is the role conceded in its anti-terrorism law to social and cultural factors, in order to prevent the spread of religious radicalism and extremism. Only years to come will say if this particular approach will give its results."

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"How ISIS has legitimized the Taliban"

Luis Durani berichtet, dass die Aktivitäten des "Islamischen Staates" in Afghanistan offenbar zu Kontakten zwischen Russland und den Taliban geführt hätten. Die Bedrohung durch den IS verändere das machtpolitische Gefüge in der Region und könnte die Taliban als Verhandlungspartner rehabilitieren. "Unfortunately for the people of Afghanistan the future is bleak. On one end of the spectrum is a newly emerge group with loyalties that transcends the nation-state concept and whose atrocities pale in comparison to the Taliban. On the other end is a government that is filled with corrupt warlords whose allegiances are more with regional fiefdoms and ethnic groups rather than the central government. In the middle of these two choices exists a group with an abhorrent history while in power but yet somehow less extreme than ISIS and yet more functional to the needs of the people than the dilapidated coalition of warlords known as the Afghan government. The people of Afghanistan will regrettably have to suffer the pain of being under the authority of any of these three groups."

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