US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

3. Bündnisse und internationale Diplomatie

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ipg-journal vom 23.09.2020

"Es ist gefährlich, den Mulilateralismus abzuschreiben"

Das IPG-Journal im Gespräch mit dem Ex-Generalsekretär der OSZE, Thomas Greminger, über die Zukunft des Multilateralismus in Zeiten einer starken Polarisierung der Mitgliedstaaten innerhalb der OSZE. "Es wäre gefährlich, den Multilateralismus abzuschreiben. Aber es stimmt, dass multilaterale und kooperative Problemlösungsansätze im Moment nicht in Mode sind. Wichtige Akteure im Konzert der Mächte bevorzugen unilaterale, allenfalls bilaterale Ansätze. Sie setzen eben nicht auf das schwerfälligere und kompliziertere multilaterale System, wollen sich nicht mittel- bis längerfristig auf gewisse Spielregeln festschreiben lassen. Die Probleme allerdings, denen wir gegenüberstehen, sind transnationaler Natur. Das beginnt schon mit der Covid-Pandemie. Aber auch Terrorismus, gewalttätiger Extremismus, die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels oder der schnelle technologische Wandel - all das ist grenzübergreifend und kann letztlich auch nur in grenzübergreifender Zusammenarbeit gelöst werden. Auch wenn es im Moment nicht gerade in Mode ist, gibt es nicht wirklich eine funktionierende Alternative zu kooperativen Ansätzen."

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The Washington Post vom 23.09.2020

"U.S. scrambles to do nuclear deal with Russia before election, issuing ultimatum"

Die US-Regierung will einen erfolgreichen Abschluss der New-Start-Verhandlungen mit Russland vor den US-Wahlen im November der Washington Post zufolge mit einem Ultimatum erzwingen. "Frustration is mounting inside the Trump administration as Russia gives little indication of whether it will agree to an arms control deal before President Trump faces reelection, according to senior U.S. administration officials, who are trying to secure the deal. (…) The administration’s scramble to cut a deal with Russia before the election comes as the president’s top diplomats have been rushing to secure diplomatic achievements as U.S. voters begin going to the polls. (…) The 'price of admission' for Russia to secure the deal with the United States will go up if the Kremlin doesn’t agree to terms before the U.S. presidential election, Billingslea warned in an interview Monday with the Russian newspaper Kommersant. Billingslea said the United States would insist on 'a number of new conditions' if Russia waits until after the election to decide and Trump wins."

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The National Interest vom 22.09.2020

"Vladimir Putin's UN Speech: Will Russia Head A New Nonaligned Movement?"

Russlands Präsident Putin habe in seiner virtuellen Rede vor der UN-Generalversammlung indirekt einen interessanten Vorschlag geäußert, berichtet Nikolas K. Gvosdev. "What is more striking, however, is Putin's implicit proposal — to the Europeans and to the major powers of the global South — to avoid becoming involved in any emerging U.S.-China cold war. His proposals for secure, sanctions-free trade corridors, his resurrection of the idea of a greater Eurasian partnership, and for placing limits on cyberwar and other disruptive actions which could upset international trade and prosperity (including the U.S. use of sanctions), are all designed to create a role for Russia as the de facto head of a new non-aligned bloc of states that do not want to be forced to either choose between Washington or Beijing—or to have to accept American or Chinese agendas. (…) Putin seems to be hoping that the growing ascendancy of China hawks in both parties in the United States will create concerns — even among U.S. allies — about being drawn into a Washington-Beijing Cold War, and that they, in turn, will buy into Russian proposals—and be incentivized to keep Russian economic power intact rather than accede to U.S. sanctions pressures."

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The Hill vom 21.09.2020

"Russia: Chances of extending New START treaty 'minimal'"

Aus russischer Sicht haben sich die Chancen auf eine Verlängerung des New-Start-Abkommens aufgrund der amerikanischen Forderungen deutlich verringert, glaubt John Bowden. "The chances of a new arms treaty with Russia look slim as Russian negotiators appear to be unwilling to accept the Trump administration's terms for a new deal. Reuters reported Monday that a Russian news agency quoted deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying that the chances of extending the START treaty, which eliminated strategic nuclear weapons held by the U.S. and Russia, was 'minimal.' (…) The comments from both sides indicate an unlikely path for a new START treaty in the waning months of the president's first term and as he has sought to head into November with newfound evidence of his administration's success on the foreign policy front."

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The Times of Israel vom 20.09.2020

"Defying UN, Washington unilaterally asserts sanctions on Iran back in effect"

Trotz fehlender Zustimmung des UN-Sicherheitsrates hat die US-Regierung die UN-Sanktionen gegen den Iran unilateral wieder eingesetzt und dabei auch anderen Ländern gedroht. "The United States unilaterally proclaimed on Saturday that UN sanctions against Iran are back in force and promised to punish those who violate them, in a move that risks increasing Washington’s isolation but also international tensions. (…) The threat is formidable: those deemed to be in defiance by Washington will be denied access to the US financial system and markets. (…) Washington is almost alone on the issue: all the other great powers — China, Russia and also the US’ own European allies — have challenged the claim. 'Any decision or action taken with a view to re-installing [the sanctions] would be incapable of legal effect,' France, Britain and Germany said in a joint letter sent Friday to the Security Council and of which AFP has obtained a copy."

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CNN vom 18.09.2020

"US seeks to pressure Russia into nuclear weapons treaty concessions before election"

In den Verhandlungen über eine Verlängerung des New-Start-Abkommens erwartet die US-Regierung von der russischen Seite weitere Zugeständnisse. "The Trump administration is threatening Russia that they could increase the cost of extending the one remaining nuclear weapons treaty between the two countries if Moscow does not commit to meeting US demands, including agreeing to stronger verification measures, before the American presidential election in November. (…) The Trump administration assesses that Russia is 'desperate' to uphold New START, and that they will be willing to make concessions in order to keep it in place. While the US has already made significant asks of Moscow, Billingslea said 'there is a lot more we could demand.' (…) Billingslea's declaration puts new pressure on Russia to come to the table before November, but Moscow is aware that the final outcome will be wholly dependent on who wins the election. Some experts are skeptical that Russia will buckle under US pressure."

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Center for Strategic and International Studies vom 16.09.2020

"Four Scenarios for Geopolitical Order in 2025-2030: What Will Great Power Competition Look Like?"

Das Center for Strategic and International Studies und die Foresight Group haben vier Szenarien für die Entwicklung der geopolitischen Ordnung in den kommenden zehn Jahren entworfen. "The scenarios center on the relative power and influence of the United States and China and the interaction between them, along with detailed consideration of other major U.S. allies and adversaries within each of four worlds. Each scenario narrative was informed by deep trends analysis and subject-matter-expert interviews. CSIS’s Dracopoulos iDeas Lab brought to life the scenarios in four engaging videos designed to test policymakers’ preconceived notions about the defense and security challenges facing the United States and its allies in the second half of this decade."

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Council on Foreign Relations vom 14.09.2020

"The UN at Seventy-Five: How to Make it Relevant Again"

75 Jahre nach ihrer Gründung hat die UNO nach Ansicht des Council on Foreign Relations an Relevanz eingebüßt. Drei aktuelle Initiativen könnten demnach dazu beitragen, diesen Trend wieder umzukehren. "As the United Nations looks to its next seventy-five years, three initiatives stand out in their importance: creating an international antivirus consortium, protecting biodiversity, and strengthening warning protocols within UN agencies. (…) There is no longer any doubt that three primary threats endanger the existence of humanity: climate change, infectious disease, and nuclear weapons. They differ in their origins and degree of immediacy, yet they share one commonality: only global, multilateral efforts can reduce their destructive potential. No other forum is more suitable for such efforts than the United Nations. The United Nations can prioritize these threats by debating and drafting a resolution — symbolically numbered 0000 — identifying them as the core global challenges."

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BBC vom 13.09.2020

"Turkish ship at centre of row with Greece returns to coast"

In der schwelenden Krise zwischen Griechenland und der Türkei hat Ankara das Forschungsschiff "Oruc Reis" aus dem östlichen Mittelmeer abgezogen. "Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis welcomed the move as a 'positive first step'. Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said the move did not mean Turkey was 'giving up on our rights there'. Tensions flared when Ankara sent the research ship to survey an area claimed by Greece, Turkey and Cyprus. Ankara has since faced potential sanctions from the European Union, which supports Greece and Cyprus. Ratcheting pressure up further on Saturday, Mr Mitsotakis announced Greece was 'reinforcing its armed forces' and would buy 18 French Rafale fighter jets, four frigates and four navy helicopters. He said the Greek military would increase by troop numbers by 15,000 over the next five years."

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Project Syndicate vom 10.09.2020

"The UN’s Unhappy Birthday"

Die Corona-Pandemie hat nach Ansicht von Richard Haass verdeutlicht, warum die UNO in ihrem heutigen Zustand nicht in der Lage ist, die internationale Kooperation zur Lösung wichtiger Probleme zu organisieren. "The pandemic helps illustrate why. The UN Security Council, the most important component of the UN system, has made itself largely irrelevant. China has blocked any significant role for the UN’s executive body lest it be criticized for its initial mishandling of the outbreak and be held responsible for the consequences. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization deferred to China early on and has been further weakened by the United States’ decision to withdraw from it. The result is that the major powers get the UN they want, not the one the world needs. (…) Significant reform of the UN is not a realistic option, as potential changes, such as altering the composition of the Security Council to reflect the distribution of power in today’s world, would favor some countries and disadvantage others. Not surprisingly, those who stand to lose can and do block any such change. (…) The good news is that countries can create alternatives – such as the G7 and G20 – when the UN falls short."

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Cato Institute vom 10.09.2020

"An Old NATO Nightmare Returns: Possible War between Greece and Turkey"

Für die NATO wäre ein offener Konflikt zwischen der Türkei und Griechenland ein "Albtraum", schreibt Ted Galen Carpenter. Er erwartet, dass sich die US-Regierung in diesem Fall wie in früheren Konflikten zwischen den beiden Mitgliedstaaten an die Seite Ankaras stellen würde. "Even if a Biden administration would not share Donald Trump’s apparent admiration for Turkey’s autocratic president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, both security and economic calculations would push Washington toward that conclusion. There is one important difference, though, between the Cyprus crisis and a possible new confrontation between Athens and Ankara. Key NATO powers, most notably France and Italy, are not happy about Erdogan’s increasingly undemocratic rule and his government’s maverick, often pro‐​Russian, behavior on security issues."

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The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace vom 09.09.2020

"A New U.S. Foreign Policy for the Post-Pandemic Landscape"

William J. Burns hofft, dass die USA die sicherheitspolitischen Umstände der "Post-Pandemie" für eine Neuerfindung ihrer internationalen Rolle nutzen. "This moment screams for leadership to help forge a sense of order — an organizer to help navigate this complicated mess of challenges and stabilize geopolitical competition, and a mobilizer to help cope with the 'problems without passports' that reach beyond the capacity of any one state and ensure at least some modest protections of global public goods. (…) The United States must choose from three broad strategic approaches: retrenchment, restoration, and reinvention. Each aspires to deliver on our interests and protect our values; where they differ is in their assessment of American priorities and influence and of the threats we face. Each is easy to caricature, but each deserves an honest look."

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ipg-journal vom 07.09.2020

"Hinter seinem breiten Rücken"

Jean Pisani-Ferry glaubt, dass die Außenpolitik von US-Präsident Donald Trump noch lange nachwirken werde, auch wenn es bei nur einer Amtszeit für Trump bleiben sollte. "Für seine Handelspolitik wird Trump in Erinnerung bleiben. Hauptsächlich drei Ziele fallen ins Auge: die Rückholung der Produktion in die USA, eine Neuausrichtung der Welthandelsorganisation und die wirtschaftliche Abkopplung von China."

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NBC News vom 07.09.2020

"Would Biden get 'tough' on China?"

Dan De Luce und Ken Dilanian glauben, dass Joe Biden im Fall seines Wahlsiegs im November dem neuen China-Konsens in Washington folgen und den Konfrontationskurs gegenüber Peking im Wesentlichen fortsetzen würde. "Biden and his campaign have spoken in broad strokes without offering details about exactly how far he would be willing to go to confront China on trade, human rights, cyber-espionage or its growing presence in the South China Sea. Seeking to draw a contrast with Trump, who has often shied away from criticizing China over human rights, Biden has promised to hold China accountable over its treatment of Uighurs in Xinjiang and its crackdown in Hong Kong. Biden also says that he would shore up U.S. alliances, which he says Trump has badly damaged, to present a united front against Beijing and that he would invest in high-tech research and education to make the U.S. economy more competitive. Former officials and analysts say that at minimum, Biden would strike a more measured and consistent tone than Trump, who has heaped praise on Xi and at other times unleashed belligerent tweets against China."

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