US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

3. Bündnisse und internationale Diplomatie

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The Atlantic vom 15.09.2019

"The U.S. Is About to Do Something Big on Hong Kong"

Protestierende in Hongkong haben in den vergangenen Wochen immer wieder die US-Flagge oder die amerikanische Nationalhymne als Freiheitssymbole eingesetzt. Uri Friedman und Timothy McLaughlin berichten, dass Washington auf den Hilferuf bald mit einem neuen Gesetz reagieren könnte. "Faced with Trump’s scattershot approach to the ferment in Hong Kong, which doesn’t rank as a high-priority issue for his administration, activists are placing their faith in legislation that ultimately will only be as effective as the executive branch’s willingness to implement it. Nevertheless, Republican Senator Marco Rubio, one of the sponsors of the bill in the Senate, is optimistic that the U.S. government will deliver on its promise. (...) Rubio said he expects the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act to easily pass in Congress and be signed into law by the president. The legislation, which has bipartisan support in the Senate and the House of Representatives, has emerged as the primary vehicle through which the U.S. government is hoping to deter China from carrying out a Tiananmen Square–like crackdown against peaceful protesters and pressure it into upholding the city’s special status within China. (...) In theory, this would equip the United States with plenty of economic and diplomatic leverage to influence Chinese behavior, but in practice it would be difficult to execute."

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The National Interest vom 14.09.2019

"Is the Philippines Becoming Russia’s Newest Ally?"

Der Kauf russischer Verkehrsflugzeuge durch die Philippinen hat Michael Peck zufolge Spekulationen über eine strategische Annäherung der beiden Länder ausgelöst. "Indeed, Manila seems to be drawing closer to Moscow even as its relations with Washington have worsened. In March 2019, Russian and Philippine officials met to discuss a potential naval pact. In April, two Russian warships docked in Manila. (...) A Russia-Philippines axis would be an incredible turnaround. The Philippines has traditionally been a U.S. ally (as well as an American colony from 1898 to 1946). (...) it is not unheard of for nations to switch partners. A prime example is Egypt, a major recipient of Soviet weapons and advisers during the Cold War, but which is now an American client. India relied on Russian arms for years, but is now buying American equipment, while once-staunch U.S. ally Turkey is buying Russian anti-aircraft missiles."

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East Asia Forum vom 14.09.2019

"Why Seoul and Tokyo will keep fighting"

Der Korea-Experte Jiun Bang von der University of Southern California erläutert die geopolitischen Hintergründe des Streits zwischen Japan und Südkorea. Er schreibt, dass insbesondere der langjährige US-Partner Südkorea seit dem Ende des Kalten Krieges eine autonomere Rolle anstrebe. "One of the most fundamental shifts in the post-Cold War period in Northeast Asia has been the re-alignment of great powers. Prior to the Cold War, South Korea and Japan were clearly nested under the US security framework. This came under doubt as China emerged as a potential counterbalance to the United States. Japan has remained within the US orbit for the most part, but South Korea has walked a more delicate path owing in part to Seoul’s efforts to fulfil its growing ambition for status and autonomy — both within the US alliance and abroad. (...) Yet no matter how much Seoul contends that it acts according to its own national interests, it is constantly tested about its 'dual loyalties' and is accused of 'trying to have it all'. (...) Unfortunately, an intensified US-China rivalry will demand greater transparency from state actors, not less. Therefore, the Japan–South Korea dissonance will only continue so long as alignments become more rigid and South Korea’s actions are framed as hurting the US–Japan–South Korea partnership."

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Foreign Affairs vom 09.09.2019

"How an Alliance System Withers"

Die andauernde Krise zwischen den beiden US-Verbündeten Japan und Südkorea werde in Washington bisher sträflich vernachlässigt, stellen Bonnie S. Glaser und Oriana Skylar Mastro fest. Dies habe China die Gelegenheit verschafft, eine Vermittlerrolle einzunehmen. "At a trilateral summit with the Japanese and South Korean foreign ministers in late August, for instance, China encouraged the two sides to at least put aside their differences long enough to make progress on a trilateral trade deal. This should give Washington pause. If, in the years ahead, the U.S. alliance system collapses, it is moments like this that will mark the beginning of the end: moments when Beijing, long intent on breaking U.S. alliances in Asia, proved more capable of managing and reinforcing regional order than a distracted United States."

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The Observer vom 07.09.2019

"Money from arms sales dwarfs aid for Yemen"

Emma Graham-Harrison weist darauf hin, dass die Summe der humanitären Hilfslieferungen Großbritanniens an Jemen vom Umfang der britischen Waffenlieferungen an die von Saudi-Arabien angeführte Militärkoalition einer neuen Oxfam-Studie zufolge um ein Vielfaches übertroffen wird. "Britain has earned eight times more from arms sales to Saudi Arabia and other members of the coalition fighting in Yemen than it has spent on aid to help civilians caught up in the conflict, a report has found. Campaigners have criticised the approach as 'completely incoherent'. (...) Britain has given £770m in food, medicines and other assistance to civilians in Yemen over the past half decade, the report by Oxfam found, making the country the sixth largest recipient of British aid. But over the same period it has made £6.2bn of arms sales to members of the coalition fighting there, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates."

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Deutsche Welle vom 07.09.2019

"Opinion: Iran must save P5+1 nuclear deal — not the EU"

Nach Ansicht des F.A.Z.-Journalisten Rainer Hermann liegt die Verantwortung für die Zukunft des internationalen Atomabkommens nicht bei der EU, sondern beim Iran. "If they intended to abandon the nuclear agreement, which the US withdrew from last year, they would simply ignore Iran's obligations under the agreement. But that's not what they are doing. Instead, Iran is violating the agreement bit by bit, starting with minor infringements. (...) Iran's high expectations stand in contrast to the expectations of the three EU countries — one of which has already been fulfilled. They asked Iran to, as a confidence-building measure, stop pursuing its politics of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials have realized that this is not in the country's interests: For every ship seized, the United States will reinforce its mission to secure the freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf. A further confidence-building measure could be for the country to voluntarily to end its violations of the nuclear agreement. However, Iranian officials want to use those as leverage. So far, that has not worked to their advantage."

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Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty vom 05.09.2019

"Putin: Russia To Produce Previously Banned Missiles, Deploy Them Only If U.S. Does"

Präsident Putin hat angekündigt, dass Russland nach dem Ende des INF-Vertrags die Produktion bisher verbotener Mittelstreckenraketen plane. Ob diese Raketen tatsächlich stationiert werden, hänge von den USA ab. "'We will make such missiles, of course, but we will not deploy them in the regions where no ground-based missile systems of this class manufactured by the United States have emerged,' he added. After accusing Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty for years, the United Sates officially withdrew on August 2 from the pact banning ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. (...) Putin said in Vladivostok that he was concerned by comments from Washington concerning the deployment of missiles in Japan and South Korea since those sites are close enough to strike Russian territory."

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Voice of America vom 05.09.2019

"Report: Top US Official in Talks With Houthi Rebels in Bid to End Yemen War"

Vertreter der US-Regierung befinden sich Berichten zufolge in Gesprächen mit den Huthi-Rebellen in Jemen, um die Aussichten für ein Ende des Krieges auszuloten. "'We are narrowly focused on trying to end the war in Yemen,' David Schenker, assistant secretary of Near Eastern Affairs, told reporters during a visit to Saudi Arabia, according to Agence France-Presse. 'We are also having talks to the extent possible with the Houthis to try and find a mutually accepted negotiated solution to the conflict.' (...) The Houthis launched an offensive against the Yemeni government in 2015, followed by a Saudi-led military intervention against the rebels, leading to a more complex conflict. Three months after the beginning of the Saudi military campaign, former U.S. President Barack Obama's administration held brief talks with Houthi leaders to convince them to attend U.N.-sponsored peace talks in Geneva. The Geneva talks and subsequent rounds of negotiations were unsuccessful, pushing the impoverished country to the brink of famine."

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Lobelog vom 05.09.2019

"Why Iran’s Strategy Of Reversible Escalation Is Working"

Eldar Mamedov hält die iranische Strategie der "kalkulierten Eskalation" im Streit um das Atomabkommen bisher für durchaus erfolgreich. "(...) Iran forced a number of key players to change their cost-benefit calculus. Europe has been unable, so far, to deliver economic dividends to Iran to keep it in the JCPOA. Yet Iran’s moves to lower its compliance with the JCPOA and seize a British tanker sounded alarm bells in Europe. They showed that Tehran was not bluffing when it threatened to reduce its nuclear commitments and prevent others from shipping oil through the Persian Gulf as long as it was prevented from doing the same. The fear of further destabilization of the region and associated costs for Europe was a major factor behind Macron’s proactive Iran diplomacy. At the same time, Iran’s escalation was limited and reversible. It did not involve major violations of the JCPOA, so as not to push Europe over to the U.S. position. (...) Iran’s strategy, adroitly executed by Zarif and his team of diplomats, is responsible for getting the country to the threshold of direct talks with the United States, and on relatively even terms at that. For talks to take place and succeed, it is now up to the U.S. side to play ball."

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National Interest vom 05.09.2019

"Trump Channels Reagan on Path Toward Arms Control"

James Jay Carafano von der konservativen Heritage Foundation begrüßt die Demontage der globalen Rüstungskontrolle durch US-Präsident Trump als überfälligen Impuls zur notwendigen Transformation des Systems. Trump sei dabei wie Amtsvorgänger Reagan in den 1980er Jahren nicht an politischen Prozessen, sondern an handfesten Resultaten interessiert. "Obama was a process guy. He shared the hope of a world without nuclear weapons, embracing an approach called 'global zero,' under which the United States would try to foster denuclearization by minimizing America’s reliance on a strategic deterrent. (...) Unfortunately, all this accomplished was to contribute to a strategic imbalance: Russia and China expanded and modernized their nuclear arsenals while America allowed its deterrent to atrophy. Even before the end of Mr. Obama’s presidency, it was clear that the campaign for global zero was a bust. (...) None of this means that Trump is anti-arms control or wants a new arms race. Rather, he is following Reagan’s proven formula of defense. He wants to show a credible nuclear deterrent and then set about putting into place arms control agreements that actually reduce threats. Here is the Trumpian wrinkle. Trump knows there is no hope of erecting a realistic global arms control regime that doesn’t include China."

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Reuters vom 04.09.2019

"Iran gives Europe two more months to save nuclear deal"

Iran will der EU zwei weitere Monate Zeit geben, um die zugesagten Sanktionsentlastungen für Teheran umzusetzen und das internationale Atomabkommen zu retten. "Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani gave European powers another two months to save a 2015 nuclear deal on Wednesday, but warned that Tehran was still preparing for further significant breaches of the agreement if diplomatic efforts failed. (...) Iran would continue with plans to breach the pact further and accelerate its nuclear activity, Rouhani said, without giving a fresh deadline. (...) Iran’s vital crude oil sales have plummeted by more than 80% under the U.S. sanctions. The remaining signatories of the deal have been working to save an agreement that they say will bring Iran back into the international fold and prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear bomb."

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The Times of Israel vom 04.09.2019

"Rouhani: Starting Friday, Iran to develop faster nuclear enrichment centrifuges"

Irans Präsident Rohani habe den nächsten Schritt der iranischen Abkehr vom internationalen Atomabkommen angekündigt und damit die Europäer weiter unter Druck gesetzt, berichtet Nasser Karimi. "(...) Rouhani elaborated, saying in comments aired on state TV that starting on Friday, Iran’s atomic agency would work on the research and development of 'all kinds' of centrifuge machines that can more quickly enrich uranium. However, he said the activities will be 'peaceful' and under surveillance of the UN nuclear watchdog. (...) Both Rouhani and Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed doubts Europe would succeed in salvaging the nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers. (...) 'I see that it’s unlikely a conclusion will be reached with Europe today or tomorrow,' Rouhani said. Araghchi was quoted by the official IRNA news agency as saying 'it is unlikely European countries can take an effective step' before the deadline."

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ipg-journal vom 03.09.2019

"Russland nicht in die Arme Chinas treiben"

Claudia Detsch im Gespräch mit dem Leiter des "Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques" (IRIS), Pascal Boniface, über die französische Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik unter Emmanuel Macron. "Emmanuel Macron will sich auf eine europäische strategische Autonomie hinbewegen. Er greift damit auf ein altbekanntes französisches Projekt im Stile De Gaulles und Mitterrands zurück, zu dem er sich bekennt. Diese europäische strategische Autonomie soll nicht gegen die Vereinigten Staaten gerichtet sein. Sie besteht einfach darin, aus einer Abhängigkeit herauszukommen, deren historische Wurzeln (der Kalte Krieg und die drohende sowjetische Übermacht) nicht mehr existieren."

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The Times of Israel vom 03.09.2019

"France seeks $15b letter of credit for Iran to keep nuclear deal alive"

Frankreich will Iran offenbar eine Kreditlinie von 15 Milliarden US-Dollar anbieten, um Teheran im internationalen Atomabkommen zu halten. "According to The New York Times, which cited a US official and Iranian reports, the proposed sum was aimed at salvaging the accord after US President Donald Trump withdrew from the pact last year and reimposed biting sanctions on Iran, including on its oil sector. The $15 billion package would make up for about half of Iran’s annual oil sales, the report said, and ease some of the economic pressure on it. On Sunday, a conservative Iranian lawmaker said French President Emmanuel Macron had proposed a $15 billion line of credit on condition Iran returns to the fold."

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The National Interest vom 30.08.2019

"Denmark Might Not Sell Greenland to America, but It Is Selling Its Resources to China"

Petri Mäkelä schreibt, dass Dänemark, das dem Grönland-Interesse des US-Präsidenten eine unmissverständliche Absage erteilt habe, offenbar kein Problem darin sehe, Standorte und strategische Ressourcen in Grönland an China zu verkaufen. "China has been heavily buying in to Greenland and its vast natural resources. The true quantity of the resources is only slowly getting revealed as the continental ice is melting due to the climate change. (...) If China was given a possibility to control the ports and airports in Greenland, it would cause serious problems for NATO operations in the northern European theater. The Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap has long been the focus point of naval planning for the possible showdown between NATO and Russia in Europe. On the other hand Greenland could also be used to stage operations aimed to disable the Russian forces in the Arctic. (...) While the USA has a military presence in Greenland, it currently has very little control over the strategically important resources there and Chinese offers may be too tempting for the largely autonomic Greenland government and the cash strapped leaders in Copenhagen. Buying Greenland as a whole is off the table, but China is raiding the all-you-can-eat buffet there."

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