US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

10. Ökonomie

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New York Times vom 21.03.2020

"Coming to a Country Near You: A Russian Nuclear Power Plant"

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/belarus-russia-nuclear.html

Das russische Staatsunternehmen Rosatom ist in Weißrussland, Litauen und anderen Ländern am Bau neuer Atomkraftwerke beteiligt. Ivan Nechepurenko und Andrew Higgins betrachten diese Aktivitäten als Teil einer geopolitischen Strategie Moskaus. "Russia’s success — it has sold more nuclear technology abroad since Mr. Putin came to power in 1999 than the United States, France, China, South Korea and Japan combined, according to a recent study — is in part commercial, generating lucrative contracts in Europe, Asia and even Africa to sustain Rosatom’s more than 250,000 engineers, researchers, salespeople and other employees. But it has also given Moscow a powerful geopolitical tool, locking clients like Belarus, but also members of the European Union like Hungary, into long-term dependency on Rosatom, and therefore the Russian state."

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Foreign Affairs vom 19.03.2020

"The Real Pandemic Danger Is Social Collapse"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-03-19/real-pandemic-danger-social-collapse

Die Corona-Pandemie könnte zu einem Kollaps der globalen Wirtschaft mit entsprechenden sozialen Folgen führen, warnt Branko Milanovic. "The economic repercussions of the novel coronavirus pandemic must not be understood as an ordinary problem that macroeconomics can solve or alleviate. Rather, the world could be witnessing a fundamental shift in the very nature of the global economy. The immediate crisis is one of both supply and demand. Supply is falling because companies are closing down or reducing their workloads to protect workers from contracting COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. (…) The supply shock is exacerbated by a decrease in demand due to the fact that people are locked in, and many of the goods and services they used to consume are no longer available. (…) The world faces the prospect of a profound shift: a return to natural — which is to say, self-sufficient — economy. That shift is the very opposite of globalization. (…) the human toll of the disease will be the most important cost and the one that could lead to societal disintegration. Those who are left hopeless, jobless, and without assets could easily turn against those who are better off. (…). If governments have to resort to using paramilitary or military forces to quell, for example, riots or attacks on property, societies could begin to disintegrate."

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OilPrice.com vom 18.03.2020

"Russia Sees Oil & Gas Income Fall By Almost $40 Billion"

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Sees-Oil-Gas-Income-Fall-By-Almost-40-Billion.html

Die russische Regierung rechnet aufgrund der gesunkenen Ölpreise mit einem deutlichen Rückgang der Staatseinkünfte. "Russia’s revenues from oil and gas will be US$39.5 billion (3 trillion rubles) lower than planned, due to the tumbling oil prices, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday, adding that Russia’s budget will be in deficit this year. The coronavirus pandemic and the lower economic activity, coupled with oil prices half the level before Russia and Saudi Arabia broke up the OPEC+ production cut deal two weeks ago, will weigh on Russia’s budget this year, which will tip into deficit. Russia’s economy is not going as well as one would have hoped, the finance minister admitted today, saying that the oil price factor alone is set to reduce the country’s budget income by nearly US$39.5 billion compared to earlier estimates. In case of budget deficit, Russia will use reserves from the National Wealth Fund (NWF), Siluanov said on Wednesday. According to analysts at Gazprombank, cited by Reuters, the fund has enough reserves to compensate for lower budget revenues due to low oil prices for more than five years."

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Responsible Statecraft vom 13.03.2020

"Will the coronavirus kill globalization?"

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2020/03/13/will-the-coronavirus-kill-globalization/

Die Corona-Pandemie könnte der Globalisierung, wie wir sie seit Jahrzehnten kennen, nach Ansicht von John Feffer ein nachhaltiges Ende bereiten. "It might seem ridiculous to expect that a pathogen, even one that spreads at the rate of a pandemic, could reverse an economic trajectory that’s more than a century in the making. But the coronavirus outbreak coincides with attacks on economic globalization from many different quarters. (…) Globalization has been challenged before by financial crises, pandemics like the Hong Kong Flu, even the specter of Y2K. This time around, however, the failure of the global community to establish new rules of the road for the economy, the environment, and health care is creating a perfect storm of international disfunction. If something with a relatively low mortality rate like the coronavirus — between one percent and four percent, compared to 50 percent for Ebola — can do such a number on the global economy, perhaps the patient was already suffering from some pretty dire underlying conditions. (…) The coronavirus is a wake-up call for both Beijing and Washington. The new status quo of a revived Cold War between the two hegemons is unworkable. It’s time for another wave of globalization, but this time one that reduces carbon emissions, proceeds more equitably, and strengthens the capacity of international institutions to fight pandemics."

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Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty vom 10.03.2020

"The Reasons And Risks Behind Russia's Big Oil Bet"

https://www.rferl.org/a/failed-talks-a-fit-of-anger-a-plot-to-sink-u-s-shale-the-reasons-and-risks-behind
-russia-s-big-oil-bet/30480151.html

Im aktuellen "Öl-Krieg" stehen sich Todd Prince zufolge Saudi-Arabien, Russland und die USA gegenüber. Einige Experten betrachten den Preisverfall auf den Märkten demnach als russischen Schachzug gegen die amerikanische Schieferöl-Industrie, andere machen die fragilen Beziehungen Moskaus zur OPEC verantwortlich. "'There are three parties facing off against each other - Russia, Saudi, and U.S. shale - and it really is a case of who blinks first,' [Chris Weafer, an energy specialist and founder of Moscow-based consultancy firm Macro-Advisory,] told RFE/RL. Several analysts said that in the short-term, Russia is in the strongest position among those three players. (…) If the spread of the coronavirus retreats globally, leading to a pickup in economic activity and oil demand, the tensions between Russia and Saudi Arabia will ease as the question of greater cuts subsides, Mammadov said. Another factor potentially limiting the depth of the price war is the Kremlin’s determination to maintain the political influence it has achieved in the Middle East in recent years, Weafer said. (…) 'The Kremlin will want to try to get back to the negotiating table because the political relations' with Saudi Arabia are 'very important,' Weafer said."

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Bloomberg vom 09.03.2020

"The Oil Price War Is Turning Into a Debt War"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/oil-crash-saudi-arabia-s-price-war-worked-once-but-
may-backfire

Mit dem absichtlich herbeigeführten Preissturz auf dem Ölmarkt habe Saudi-Arabien einen neuen "Öl-Krieg" begonnen, schreibt David Fickling. Vor wenigen Tagen habe Riad noch erfolglos versucht, Russland zur Kooperation bei der Regulierung der Ölproduktion zu bewegen. "While previously Saudi Arabia hoped to maintain its position and revenues in the oil market by encouraging cooperation between major players, it’s now betting that its best prospect is to do the opposite: Engage in a game of chicken with Moscow and the U.S. independent oil industry, and count on being the last player standing. (…) Riyadh’s race-to-the-bottom strategy only worked in 1985 because it was the lowest-cost producer. Now, its bloated budget means that it’s one of the highest-cost and shakiest players. It remains embroiled in a costly and brutal military quagmire in Yemen, and on Friday arrested senior royals on the grounds they were plotting a coup."

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Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty vom 07.03.2020

"More Nord Stream 2 Sanctions On Horizon? U.S. Senator And Ukraine's Naftogaz Discuss Ways To Halt Controversial Gas Pipeline"

https://www.rferl.org/a/more-nord-stream-2-sanctions-on-horizon-u-s-senator-and-ukraine-naftogaz-kobolyev
/30475104.html

Die USA und die Ukraine wollen die Fertigstellung der russischen Gaspipeline Nord Stream 2 diesem Bericht zufolge mit weiteren Strafmaßnahmen aufhalten. "'There is a very elegant and efficient way available to the U.S. government to make sure this pipeline will never happen and we believe that this should be done,' [Andriy Kobolyev, the chief executive officer of Ukraine's state-owned gas giant Naftogaz,] told RFE/RL in Washington on March 3 following his meetings with congressmembers, including Senator Ted Cruz (Republican, Texas), who is seen as a leading voice in the effort. (…) What exactly the United States will do if Russia comes close to completing the project is unclear, and Kobolyev declined to give any details, saying it's a 'sensitive issue.' 'If the U.S. really wants this pipeline not to happen, there is a way to achieve that outcome. That is why we are here' in Washington, he said. Russia has two ships it could potentially use to complete the project: the Akademik Chersky and the Fortuna. However, Russia would first need to receive a permit from Denmark to deploy the ships in its waters and that could be complicated, analysts said."

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Die Welt vom 03.03.2020

"Der deutsche Rüstungsriese steht am Anfang des Super-Zyklus"

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206271503/Rheinmetall-Groesster-deutscher-Ruestungskonzern-profitie
rt-vom-Super-Zyklus.html

Die Rüstungsindustrie boomt Gerhard Hegmann zufolge wie selten zuvor. "War vor Jahren der Automotive-Bereich noch renditestärker und auf Wachstumskurs, ist es jetzt das Rüstungsgeschäft. Zum Vergleich: 2015 waren Auto- und Rüstungsbereich, was den Umsatz betrifft, mit je 2,6 Milliarden Euro gleich groß. Mit Motorenteilen wurde mehr als doppelt so gut verdient wie mit Waffen. Inzwischen zeigt sich ein anderes Bild: Nach den nun vorgelegten Zahlen für 2019 sank der Umsatz im Automotive-Bereich um knapp sieben Prozent auf 2,7 Milliarden Euro, während die Rüstungssparte um neun Prozent zulegte, auf dreieinhalb Milliarden Euro."

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Bloomberg vom 25.02.2020

"How Fast Can a Virus Destroy a Supply Chain?"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-25/coronavirus-could-cause-sudden-collapse-of-global-s
upply-chains?srnd=opinion

Der Ausbruch des Coronavirus stellt Tyler Cowen zufolge auch eine ernste Bedrohung für die Weltwirtschaft dar. Der Grund: Globalisierte Lieferketten seien sowohl effizient als auch fragil. "The global supply chain, already under pressure from President Donald Trump’s trade war, now faces further strain from the coronavirus. And while cross-national supply chains are more robust than they may appear, if they fail they will do so suddenly and without much warning. (…) So far the best bet is that current international supply chains will hold, for the most part, and deliver the goods. But the chance that they will not is rising sharply, as both the trade war and the coronavirus strengthen the hand of those who advocate for more dismantling of international trade networks. And if that dismantling does occur, it is likely to snap into place suddenly — with neither market prices nor advance warning offering much protection. The more people start to believe that long, complex cross-national supply chains are risky, the more fragile they will turn out to be."

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World Politics Review vom 24.02.2020

"The Coronavirus Outbreak Is the Shape of Things to Come"

https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28555/the-coronavirus-outbreak-is-the-shape-of-things-to-com
e

Stewart M. Patrick betrachtet den Ausbruch des Coronavirus nicht als Anomalie, sondern als durch die Globalisierung begünstigten Beginn eines neuen Zeitalters weltweiter Infektionskrankheiten. "Humanity is currently experiencing its fourth great wave of infectious disease. The first coincided with the agricultural revolution some 10 millennia ago. (…) A second great wave began during classical antiquity and lasted through the Middle Ages, as commercial and military contact among major centers of civilization exposed formerly isolated societies to new diseases and created new vectors — rats, fleas — that spread pestilence across the Mediterranean and Asia. (…) The third phase occurred after 1500, as explorers, conquerors and colonists from Europe brought new pathogens to the Americas, Africa and Australasia, and sometimes back again, with devastating results. Today, development and globalization are driving a new era of infectious disease. (…) Surging human mobility, as well as the global economy’s dependence on complex supply chains, puts public officials in a terrible bind, complicating the 'drawbridge' strategy that societies have historically used to control epidemics. (…) Today, the World Health Organization advises U.N. member states against strict trade and travel restrictions, judging them both costly and counterproductive in preventing transmission of infectious disease. Few governments seem to be listening."

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OilPrice.com vom 18.02.2020

"Russia Is Defeating The U.S. In The Middle East Oil Game"

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Russia-Is-Defeating-The-US-In-The-Middle-East-Oil-Game.html

Russland nutze den Rückzug der USA aus dem Nahen Osten, um den eigenen Einfluss in der Region auch energiepolitisch auszuweiten, schreibt Simon Watkins. Dazu gehörten geplante Investitionen im irakischen Ölsektor. "Historically, Russia goes to great lengths to hide or disguise its strategic intentions but it clearly feels empowered enough in the Middle East to very obviously stake its claim in the region – excluding, for the time being only, Saudi Arabia – by stating that a slew of Russian companies are to spend up to US$20 billion on oil projects in Iraq in the near term. 'Since [U.S. President Donald] Trump outlined the new U.S. foreign policy of not engaging in conflicts abroad unless they were directly aligned with U.S. interests [October 2019], and then effectively withdrawing from Syria and from supporting the Kurds, Russia and China have felt that they can bring forward their plans to bring Iraq within their geopolitical arc of influence,' a senior source who works closely with Iraq’s Oil Ministry told OilPrice.com last week. 'They know that provided that they do not impinge on Saudi Arabia and, at a pinch the UAE and Kuwait, or launch attacks against U.S. personnel, then they can basically do whatever they want anywhere else, hence this announcement from Russia last week,' he added."

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Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty vom 29.01.2020

"Russia’s Gazprom Says It Will Complete Nord Stream 2 Alone"

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-s-gazprom-says-will-complete-nord-stream-2-alone/30403428.html

Das russische Energieunternehmen Gazprom will das umstrittene Pipelineprojekt Nord Stream 2, das aufgrund neuer US-Sanktionen ins Stocken geraten ist, im Notfall auch allein fertigstellen. "'The Nord Stream 2 project, which is already 94 percent complete, will be finished by the Russian side,' Gazprom deputy head Yelena Burmistrova reportedly told the European Gas Conference in Vienna on January 28. (…) It remains unclear how Gazprom would finish the project without international assistance. Options on the table, according to the Financial Times, include using vessels owned by Gazprom and other Russian pipe-laying contractors. The foreign companies building the pipeline -- all not part of Gazprom's project consortium -- were Finnish, Swedish, and Danish. The two most crucial companies facing sanctions were Swiss pipelayer and undersea construction firm Allseas, as well as Italian pipeline contractor Saipem."

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Wired.com vom 29.01.2020

"The US Is Losing Its Fight Against Huawei"

https://www.wired.com/story/uk-huawei-5g-networks-us/

Trotz jahrelanger Bemühungen der US-Regierung, Großbritannien von einem Boykott Huaweis zu überzeugen, hat sich London für eine Beteiligung des chinesischen IT-Riesen am 5G-Ausbau ausgesprochen. Auch andere Verbündete, darunter Deutschland, suchen Garrett M. Graff zufolge nach Wegen, keine der beiden Supermächte vor den Kopf zu stoßen. "'Our allies aren’t standing with us in the way that we thought,' one senior Trump administration official told me last year while I was reporting on the anti-Huawei campaign. Countries like Germany especially have said they felt stuck between the US and China, unable to afford alienating either economic superpower. (…) the UK’s decision surely shifts the debate in Huawei’s favor. The promise from Ciaran Martin, well-respected head of the UK’s National Cyber Security Center, that the government’s approach “will ensure that the UK has a very strong, practical, and technically sound framework for digital security in the years ahead,” provides calm and cover to other countries wrestling with similar decisions. Italy, for one, appears poised to allow Huawei into at least parts of its network, meaning that the US will almost certainly confront NATO allies whose wireless systems rely at least in part on Chinese technology."

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The Asia Times vom 26.01.2020

"Did the US just concede defeat in China tech war?"

https://www.asiatimes.com/2020/01/article/did-the-us-just-concede-defeat-in-china-tech-war/

Kurz vor der britischen Entscheidung, Huawei nun doch unter Auflagen am 5G-Ausbau in Großbritannien zu beteiligen, hat das US-Handelsministerium entgegen vieler Erwartungen darauf verzichtet, den Einkauf amerikanischer Güter durch das chinesische IT-Unternehmen empfindlich einzuschränken. Auch die zuvor diskutierten Strafmaßnahmen gegen Großbritannien seien offenbar kein Thema mehr. David P. Goldman betrachtet dies als Eingeständnis einer Niederlage im Tech-Krieg der USA gegen China. "This appears to be an admission of defeat in the US-Chinese tech war, which in the long term is far more important than the trade war. China seeks to dominate what it calls the Fourth Industrial Revolution centered on 5G and artificial intelligence. China is investing massively in its 'Made in China 2025' plan to leapfrog the West in high technology, while US support for basic R&D is barely half of its Reagan-era level in proportion to GDP. (…) A senior Huawei official told me that although the US restrictions are making life difficult for the company, China was moving rapidly towards self-sufficiency in the most advanced computer chips. That would do more than cut off US sales to China: It would enable China to undercut American companies in the global ship market. US chipmakers depend overwhelmingly on Asian sales."

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The Daily Signal vom 22.01.2020

"How the Oil Production Boom Has Benefited America"

https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/01/22/how-the-oil-production-boom-has-benefited-america/

Der Boom der amerikanischen Erdölproduktion, der die USA kurzzeitig sogar zum größten Öl-Exporteur der Welt werden ließ, habe die strategischen Grundlagen der amerikanischen Nahost-Politik fundamental verändert, schreibt Jarrett Stepman. Den von US-Demokraten geforderten "Green New Deal" lehnt er deshalb entschieden ab. "As political scientist Walter Russell Mead wrote for The Wall Street Journal, the Middle East is now a region 'being fundamentally reshaped by drillers in Texas, Pennsylvania, North Dakota, and elsewhere.' As my colleague Nick Loris, an expert on energy and environmental policy, has noted, the huge increase in domestic oil production doesn’t mean that the U.S. is truly energy independent. We are still very much affected by the global supply and the actions of countries abroad. Nevertheless, the surge in production has transformed the American economy and given the U.S. an invaluable tool in foreign relations. That has transpired in spite of efforts by the Obama administration and the left to strangle an industry they fundamentally dislike, an effort that would be stepped up massively if the so-called Green New Deal became law."

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Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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