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Foreign Policy


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"America’s Iraqi Embassy Is a Monstrosity Out of Time"


US-Außenminister Pompeo hat der irakischen Regierung damit gedroht, dass die USA sich aus ihrer Botschaft in der schwer befestigten Green Zone in Bagdad zurückziehen könnten. Steven A. Cook hält diesen Schritt für überfällig. "To the extent that any Americans think about Iraq or the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad these days, they likely envision a building, but it is much more than that. The compound, which is only slightly smaller than Disneyland, features 20 office buildings, six apartment blocks, and various amenities for the staff, which at one time numbered 16,000. The tab for the complex’s completion was $750 million. It is the physical manifestation of American hubris in Iraq. And, unlike Disneyland, no dreams came true there. The next administration should shut down the compound and hand it over to the Iraqis. The grounds would make a fine addition to the University of Baghdad. (…) There is, however, an important mission that the United States should sustain in Iraq: security, specifically the related efforts to keep extremists at bay and ensure Iraqi sovereignty. These goals are intertwined with each other, and they require significant American attention."

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"Is Turkey’s Military Overstretched?"


Die Intervention der Türkei im Konflikt um Bergkarabach ist nur das jüngste Beispiel einer ganzen Reihe "militärischer Abenteuer" Ankaras, schreibt Allison Meakem. "Turkey’s pursuit of greater influence in the Caucasus, particularly in a region contested by ethnic Armenians and ethnic Turks, is unsurprising. If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan does indeed decide to deploy his military in Nagorno-Karabakh — which is internationally recognized as sovereign Azerbaijani territory despite being home to a majority Armenian population and being occupied and regarded as an independent state by Armenia since a war in the 1990s — it would only be the latest in a string of Turkish strategic entanglements stretching from the Mediterranean to Central Asia. Here’s an overview of everywhere Turkey’s military is active right now."

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"How to Stop the Export of Authoritarianism"


Suzanne Nossel wirft China vor, die internationale Menschenrechtsordnung langsam aber stetig auszuhöhlen. "No government threatens the international human rights system like China’s ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Despite having signed onto certain international agreements, it has never been willing to guarantee rights to free expression, fair trials, religious liberty, or freedom from torture and forced labor. Beijing also rejects the role of human rights watchdogs, including nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and independent journalists. (…) The breadth of Beijing’s assault on the international human rights system demands a response from the United States, Europe, and other rights-respecting countries. A passive, defensive posture — that is, a continuation of the status quo — will allow Beijing to proceed apace, renovating the international human rights system to a point where it may be unrecognizable."

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"No, Biden Will Not End Trade Wars"


Zumindest auf dem Feld der Handelspolitik würde ein Präsident Joe Biden den Kurs Donald Trumps nahezu unverändert fortsetzen, ist Edward Alden vom Council on Foreign Relations sicher. "If Democratic candidate Joe Biden becomes president next January, mending U.S. trade relations won’t be anywhere near the top of his to-do list. He has stated unequivocally that he would not enter into any new trade agreements 'until we’ve made major investments here at home, in our workers and our communities.' Don’t expect a Biden-led United States to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership in Asia, restart talks on a new agreement with the European Union, or pursue trade deals elsewhere anytime soon — if ever. But for the rest of the world, four years of being pummeled with tariffs and sanctions by President Donald Trump make better trade relations a priority. How deftly Biden handles that tug of war will determine whether the United States regains some of its tattered leadership over the international economic order — or stands by while the world further deteriorates into tit-for-tat trade wars."

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"Gorbachev Was Right About German Reunification"


Elisabeth Braw betrachtet die deutsche Wiedervereinigung 30 Jahre später nach wie vor als erfolgreichstes geopolitisches Experiment seit Jahrzehnten. "For the rest of the world (…) Germany’s reunification was the most audacious — and perhaps successful — geopolitical experiment to have been attempted for decades; a failure would have massive implications, not just for Germany itself but for Europe as a whole. From her retirement perch in the U.K. House of Lords, Thatcher saw little German angst, aggressiveness, bullying, egotism, inferiority complex, or sentimentality. On the contrary, reunited Germany turned out to be a moderate, sometimes even modest, nation. Much like the old West Germany, it established itself as an economic powerhouse, a staunch supporter of European integration — Kohl’s swan song was the introduction of the euro — and a nation exceptionally hesitant to use its armed forces. Perhaps because of its distaste for military adventures, Germany has developed into the world’s cornerstone of sensible power."

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"Did Xi Just Save the World?"


Der britische Historiker Adam Tooze macht auf die kaum beachtete Rede des chinesischen Präsidenten vor der UN-Generalversammlung aufmerksam, die seiner Ansicht nach einen Wandel der chinesischen Klimapolitik signalisieren und so das Schicksal der ganzen Welt beeinflussen könnte. "China will scale up its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions by adopting more vigorous policies and measures. We aim to have [carbon dioxide] emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.' Xi Jinping’s speech via video link to the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 22 was not widely trailed in advance. But with those two short sentences China’s leader may have redefined the future prospects for humanity. That may sound like hyperbole, but in the world of climate politics it is hard to exaggerate China’s centrality. Thanks to the gigantic surge in economic growth since 2000 and its reliance on coal-fired electricity generation, China is now by far the largest emitter of carbon dioxide. At about 28 percent of the global total, the carbon dioxide produced in China (as opposed to that consumed in the form of Chinese exports) is about as much as that produced by the United States, European Union, and India combined."

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"Partition Is the Only Solution to Lebanon’s Woes"


Die tiefe politische Krise in Libanon werde nur durch eine Teilung des Landes gelöst werden können, ist der Politikwissenschaftler Joseph A. Kéchichian überzeugt. "Many wonder whether the Lebanese can survive with Hezbollah’s guns imposing Shiite minority rule over all other communities. Others deliberate how many more will need to perish before the Lebanese can truly be free. Partition is a serious option that would help avoid repeated mistakes that largely defined Lebanon during the past century. It was amply clear that while the Lebanese shared common attributes, they could not agree on basic political and social freedoms, which can only be preserved through a new political pact. Without liberty, Lebanon has no meaning, since those who presumably created the current geographic entity intended to empower its inhabitants with the freedoms that were absent elsewhere in the region. Regrettably, the 1920 experiment failed, and the real question that confronts the Lebanese in 2020 is whether the country ought to go back to its pre-1920 settings."

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"Macron Wants to Be a Middle Eastern Superpower"


Präsident Macron versuche derzeit, Frankreich zu einer "Supermacht" im Nahen Osten aufzubauen, schreibt Steven A. Cook. "The French are back in the Middle East — or at least, it seems that way. With all the talk these days about Russia or China filling the space in the Middle East that the United States is alleged to be vacating, France is now making a bid to be part of the conversation. In the past month and a half, President Emmanuel Macron has visited Lebanon twice and turned up in Baghdad for meetings with President Barham Salih, Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s president, Nechirvan Barzani. Macron has also beefed up the French military presence in the area, deploying naval units including a helicopter carrier and frigate to the Eastern Mediterranean. (…) Macron is staking a claim that France is willing to wield power to bring order and stability to the area. Why the change? In a few words: refugees, energy, and Turkey."

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"Japan’s Suga Will Struggle to Pull off Abe’s Defense Transformation"


Der neue japanische Premierminister Yoshihide Suga sei in gewisser Weise ein "Klon" seines Amtsvorgängers, schreibt Jack Detsch. Allerdings sei nicht zu erwarten, dass Suga den Umbau der japanischen Sicherheitspolitik mit dem Enthusiasmus von Shinzo Abe vorantreiben wird. "Suga, who overcame two favored party rivals to unexpectedly grab the top of the greasy pole, lacks the political pedigree or hobnobbing skills that made Abe a fixture on the international political scene. But he also lacks Abe’s compulsion to break the constraints of Japan’s post-war defense posture, and is additionally hemmed in by the coronavirus pandemic and the economic damage it’s wrought, which will likely push Japan’s nascent security awakening to the back seat for now. 'He’s got to focus on economics,' said Michael Auslin, a distinguished research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. 'You don’t win elections on foreign policy.'"

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"How Turkey’s Soft Power Conquered Pakistan"


Fatima Bhutto schreibt, dass populäre türkische TV-Serien wichtiger Bestandteil der "Soft Power"-Strategie Ankaras seien. "Today, Turkish dizi — television dramas — are second only to American ones in terms of global distribution. Turkish is now the most watched foreign language in the world, beating out French, Spanish, and Mandarin. Ertugrul, which began filming in 2014, first became popular on Netflix and has since been licensed to 72 countries. (…) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has celebrated the show for 'entering the nation’s heart' and is an enthusiastic supporter. Its producer, Kemal Tekden, is a member of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), and the show’s creator, Mehmet Bozdag, is, if not a member, an open admirer."

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"The End of Hope in the Middle East"


Der Nahe Osten habe sich seit dem Ausbruch des Arabischen Frühlings in eine fast hoffnungslose Dystopie verwandelt, stellt Steven A. Cook ernüchtert fest. "The Middle East has long faced challenges — foreign intervention, authoritarian leaders, distorted and uneven economic development, extremism, wars, and civil conflict. But this year has added to the mix a global pandemic and a wrenching global recession, resulting in a scale of crisis that exceeds any other time in history. The region has become a dystopia marked by violence, resurgent authoritarianism, economic dislocation, and regional conflict, with no clear way out. There were times in the not-so-distant past that developments in the Middle East rendered even the most optimistic despairing, but those were moments when crises seemed to come one at a time. When they abated, there always seemed the possibility that better days would come. Not anymore. For the first time, it is entirely reasonable to feel hopeless about the Middle East."

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"The Abe Era Ends, Cheering China, Concerning Washington"


Nach dem Rücktritt von Premierminister Abe sollte die US-Regierung dem bisher weitgehend unproblematischen Bündnis mit Japan neue Aufmerksamkeit schenken, empfiehlt Michael Auslin. "Abe (…) towered over Japanese politics since returning to the top office in 2012, and from that position he remained a staunch ally of the United States for nearly a decade. Losing that partnership just as the U.S.-Chinese geopolitical competition heats up is a worrisome prospect for Washington. Who will succeed Abe, whether Japan will slip back into political paralysis or instability, and whether the next leader will have as energetic a foreign and defense policy as their predecessor are the key questions facing not only Japan, but also its allies and competitors. (…) As for the Americans, they have become so used to governing stability in Japan that they may be in for a rude surprise. It’s been nearly a decade since Washington had to worry about whether a Japanese leader was fully committed to the alliance, could keep a stable parliamentary majority, and had clear plans for making Japan play a role in the world commensurate with its position as the third-largest economy. It may not be long before the Abe era is mourned by those at home and its allies abroad."

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"Can Mali Escape Its Past?"


Kathryn Salam hat eine Reihe von "Foreign Policy"-Beiträgen der letzten Jahre zusammengetragen, um die politischen und historischen Hintergründe des Militärputsches in Mali zu erklären. "(…) after weeks of protests over terrorism and corruption, Mali’s military arrested the country’s prime minister, Boubou Cissé, and president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, who soon officially resigned his post. In the days since, powers around the world, including France, the United Nations, United States, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), have demanded the reinstatement of the elected government - even as many Malians have cheered its demise. The international community’s calls are unlikely to go heeded, and Mali seems set for more unrest in the days ahead. To help explain how the country - once considered a key example of stability and democracy in the region - got here and what may follow, we’ve collected our best reads from the last few years."

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"Belarus’s Protests Aren’t Particularly Anti-Putin"


Rajan Menon hält es für unwahrscheinlich, dass die Opposition in Belarus eine antirussische Regierung einsetzen würde. Eine militärische Intervention Moskaus sei deshalb ebenfalls nicht zu erwarten. "For starters, the Belarus protesters aren’t driven by a desire to break free of Russian control, which, in any event, the wily Lukashenko proved pretty adept at avoiding. Lukashenko is reviled, no doubt, but not because he is regarded in the country as Moscow’s man, as Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was in 2014. Nor are the intrepid protesters who have taken to the streets in Belarus animated primarily by dreams of joining the European Union and NATO, and the anti-Russian sentiments evident among some of the groups that were part of the protests on Kyiv’s Maidan have been notably absent on the streets of Minsk. Moreover, because Russian is far more widely used in Belarus than Belarusian — like Russian, Belarusian has the status of an official language, but less than a quarter of the population speaks it day to day — the linguistic and cultural divide between Russia and parts of Ukraine, particularly its western regions, aren’t present either. In short, Putin need not really fear the installation of an anti-Russian regime."

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"The Tragic Romance of the Nostalgic Western Liberal"


Der bulgarische Politikwissenschaftler Ivan Krastev schreibt in seiner Rezension des Buches "Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism", dass sich die Autorin Anne Applebaum bemühe, den Aufstieg des neuen Illiberalismus aus der überholten moralischen Perspektive des Kalten Krieges zu analysieren. "Applebaum is a very good writer; her style is lucid, and her arguments are bracing. This has made her one of the most powerful voices of the anti-populist resistance. But the strength of her new book is not so much in exposing the authoritarian nature of populists in power but in revealing the intellectual hollowness of the anti-communist consensus. In his review of Jacob Heilbrunn’s history of neoconservatism They Knew They Were Right, the author and journalist Timothy Noah sharply observed: 'To be neoconservative is to bear almost daily witness to the resurrection of Adolf Hitler.' In Applebaum’s much more liberal and optimistic version, to be neoconservative is to bear almost daily witness to the fall of the Berlin Wall."

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"Europe Must Stand Up for Belarus"


Benjamin Haddad und Ben Judah kritisieren die bisherige Reaktion der westlichen Politik auf die politische Krise in Weißrussland. "The failure to act decisively in Belarus, in fact, clearly shows the decline of Western influence. A profoundly erratic Washington, which seemed on the verge of offering material help to the Lukashenko regime to distance itself from Russia when Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited in February, is now nowhere to be seen. The United States previously had a long-term strategy, however flawed, to support the post-Soviet states by proactively seeking to distance them from Russia: Under Trump, this is no longer the case. The Minsk mass protests could not have come at a worse time for the West. London, Paris, Berlin, and Washington are all distracted and running distinct and barely coordinated Russia policies — from Macron’s engagement strategy and Merkel’s silence to Johnson’s new Magnitsky sanctions and Trump’s regular calls with Vladimir Putin. The next six months could get much worse: A protracted crisis following a disputed election in the United States is a distinct possibility. It is time for the European democracies to take responsibility and provide their own strategic leadership."

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"The U.S. Is Close to Killing Russia’s Nord Stream 2 Pipeline"


Mit ihren geplanten Sanktionen gegen beteiligte Firmen der Ostseepipeline Nord Stream 2 stehe die US-Regierung kurz davor, das russische Projekt doch noch zu stoppen, schreibt Amy MacKinnon. Es handle sich um ein "Wettrennen" zwischen einer verlangsamten Konstruktion und einer möglicherweise noch langsameren Umsetzung der Sanktionen. "For years, the United States has tried to kill off Russia’s latest effort to strengthen its energy stranglehold on Europe, to little avail. But targeted U.S. sanctions that go after the pipe-laying vessels needed to finish the 760-mile-long pipeline from Russia to Germany might finally do the trick, if they arrive in time. To get around U.S. sanctions on firms helping to build the project, which would double Russian gas flows to Germany, Russia acquired a specialized ship, the Akademik Cherskiy, which can weld the steel tubes needed to carry highly pressurized natural gas. But Russia has been relying on a second ship to lay the pipe, and the pipe-laying barge Fortuna now seems to be out of action. That could double the time left to finish the project, which is 94 percent done. The big question now is whether new U.S. sanctions contained in this year’s defense spending bill can be passed and signed into law before the project is completed."

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"Oh God, Not the Peloponnesian War Again"


James Palmer zufolge wird in westlichen Strategiedebatten zur Illustration bestimmter Aspekte der Rivalität zwischen den USA und China immer wieder gern auf den Peloponnesischen Krieg und die Thukydides-Falle zurückgegriffen. Palmer empfiehlt einen Blick über den Tellerrand und nennt acht historische Konflikte aus Asien, die möglicherweise sogar passendere strategische Lehren bereithielten. "Even when strategists move beyond Athens, they’re still writing about Europe. In all the takes on the U.S.-China relationship, the history of Chinese warfare itself — and the vast span of Asian conflict, warfare, and political contention over the last 3,000 years — goes virtually unmentioned. The British historian Thomas Babington Macaulay’s claim that 'a single shelf of a good European library was worth the whole native literature of India and Arabia' is still unconsciously followed. There are more articles referencing the fictional European-esque conflict of Game of Thrones than the real conflicts of medieval Asia. (…) To be sure, Asian history is harder to access in English than Europe’s, and the continent’s military history is shamefully underwritten. But the materials are out there — and they are far more geographically, culturally, and historically relevant to the continent that is defining the 21st century than dipping into Thucydides again."

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"Australia Is Having a Strategic Revolution, and It’s All About China"


Australien habe in Reaktion auf die neue chinesische Außenpolitik eine strategische Kehrtwende in der eigenen Regionalpolitik angekündigt, berichten Zack Cooper und Charles Edel. "At the beginning of July, Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison declared that 'our region is in the midst of the most consequential strategic realignment since the Second World War.' He wrote that in the introduction to his government’s 'Defence Strategic Update' and 'Force Structure Plan,' which many are hailing as a fundamental shift in Australia’s strategic approach. Australian defense planning might seem remote, but the shift could alter the basic security dynamic in the Indo-Pacific region — and correspondingly, the U.S. approach to competition in this region. The questions now is whether Washington will notice the significant change in its most trusted Pacific ally’s posture, whether it will choose to cooperate with Canberra’s efforts to pull off its new strategy, and whether it will treat this as a useful model for other allies and partners."

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"There Is No Arctic Axis"


Die Bedeutung der Kooperation Russlands und Chinas in der Arktis sollte nach Ansicht von Elizabeth Buchanan nicht überbewertet werden. Es handle sich nicht um eine geopolitische "Allianz", sondern vor allem um ein Wirtschaftsbündnis. "Russia and China’s Arctic partnership is not an alliance — it is driven by business. Despite mutually beneficial interests in the region, commercial realpolitik is at the heart of their engagement. For now, the partnership in the Arctic navigates existing fault lines, such as Beijing’s failure to acknowledge Russia’s annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s nonalignment in the developing India-China conflict. Any regional cooperation is due to their shared interest in maintaining domestic stability. Long-term economic development ventures and the viability of non-Western multilateral bodies, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, are critical for their shared vision of world order."

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"Countries Should Mind Their Own Business"


Stephen M. Walt mit einem Plädoyer für die Idee der staatlichen Souveränität, die in der Praxis nicht perfekt, aber den Alternativen immer noch vorzuziehen sei. "What’s the dumbest idea affecting the foreign policy of major powers? There are plenty of candidates — the domino theory; the myth of the short, cheap war; the belief that a particular deity is “on the side” of one nation and will guarantee its success; etc. But right up there with those worthy contenders is a country’s belief that it has found the magic formula for political, economic, social, and international success and that it has the right, the responsibility, and the ability to spread this gospel far and wide. (…) Because humans are boundlessly creative social beings who resist conformity, and because no social or political arrangements are ever perfect, dissidents will always arise and contending visions will emerge no matter how fiercely they are repressed. Institutions created in one place may travel to other locations, but they will mutate and evolve in the process and exhibit different forms wherever they take root. And that’s why I’ll raise two cheers for the (partly) sovereign state. A world made up of contending nationalisms is hardly a utopia, with the ever-present possibility of conflict and war and many obstacles to mutual cooperation. But trying to fit a diverse humanity into a uniform box is doomed to fail — and no small source of trouble as well."

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"China Is NATO’s New Problem"


Die NATO hat durch ihren starken Fokus auf Russland nach Ansicht von Lauren Speranza vom Center for European Policy lange den wachsenden Einfluss Chinas in Europa übersehen. In Brüssel habe man dies mittlerweile bemerkt und einen Kurswechsel eingeleitet. "It’s apparent that NATO can no longer ignore the threat. If the alliance hopes to remain competitive, it will need to develop a new strategy for dealing with Beijing. First, NATO needs a common assessment of China’s hybrid threats — a mix of diplomatic, economic, security, information, and technological actions designed to quietly undermine democratic states and institutions to Beijing’s benefit while avoiding a traditional conflict. (…) Second, NATO needs to focus on public diplomacy. NATO has an important role to play in the battle against the CCP’s global narratives, which Beijing promulgates through hybrid activities. (…) Third, the alliance should step up its counteroffensive. (…) Rather than waiting for China to invest in the next major European port, allies should coordinate legislation to prevent the riskiest Chinese acquisitions. And rather than waiting for more Chinese cyberintrusions, allies should collaborate on responsible, targeted offensive cyberactions. (…) Fourth, NATO needs to deepen its cooperation with other key players, such as the European Union and the private sector."

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"Everyone Misunderstands the Reason for the U.S.-China Cold War"


Der Politikwissenschaftler Stephen M. Walt erklärt, warum die Rivalität zwischen den USA und China aus amerikanischer Sicht nicht mit der Ablehnung der herrschenden Ideologie oder der Führungspersönlichkeiten in Peking begründet werden sollte. "(…) the roots of the present Sino-American rivalry have less to do with particular leaders or regime types and more to do with the distribution of power and the particular strategies that the two sides are pursuing. This is not to say that domestic politics or individual leadership do not matter at all, either in influencing the intensity of the competition or the skill with which each side wages it. Some leaders are more (or less) risk acceptant, and Americans are currently getting (another) painful demonstration of the harm that incompetent leadership can inflict. But the more important point is that new leaders or profound domestic changes are not going to alter the inherently competitive nature of U.S.-Chinese relations. From this perspective, both progressives and hard-liners in the United States are getting it wrong. The former believe that China poses at most a modest threat to U.S. interests and that some combination of accommodation and skillful diplomacy can eliminate most if not all of the friction and head off a new cold war. I’m all for skillful diplomacy, but I do not believe it will suffice to prevent an intense competition that is primarily rooted in the distribution of power."

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"Bullied by Beijing, America’s Closest Allies Regret Saying 'Yes' to China"


Nach Ansicht von Salvatore Babones ist China gerade dabei, einige seiner diplomatischen Erfolge der letzten Jahre zu verspielen. Viele Verbündete der USA überdenken demnach ihren für Washington problematischen Annäherungskurs gegenüber Peking. "The era of cooperation with China may be over soon. Australia, Britain, Canada, and New Zealand are beginning to regret saying 'yes' to China’s strategic overtures. The leaders, once eager to assert a little independence from their often-overbearing superpower ally, now find themselves aligning with the United States to oppose the use of Huawei equipment in 5G networks, universities accepting Chinese money to host Confucius Institutes, gross human rights violations in Xinjiang, government repression in Hong Kong, and the militarization of the South China Sea. They are wary of appearing to support a U.S. president who is anathema to many in their own countries, but they increasingly support Donald Trump’s actual policy stances with regard to China. Each country has its own reasons for confronting China, but all of them are, in effect, falling in line with U.S. China policy."

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"Why Is China Downplaying Its Border Clash With India?"


In China werde der blutige Zusammenstoß mit indischen Truppen im Himalaja dagegen heruntergespielt, berichtet James Palmer. Peking sei derzeit offenbar nicht an einer schwer zu kontrollierenden Eskalation des Konflikts interessiert. "India and China both have well-developed mythologies of national martyrdom in war, and the Indian soldiers who died are already filling that role. But it seems unlikely that China will even release the names of the dead. There is state hostility toward releasing any sensitive information — and especially for the opaque military. As indicated by the lack of media coverage, Beijing wants to keep its options open — and it doesn’t want to be trapped by public opinion calling for escalation. Deaths could also be read as a sign of weakness, especially if the Chinese side really did come off worse."

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"Biden Resists Move Left on Foreign Policy"


Der demokratische US-Präsidentschaftskandidat Joe Biden wäre Colum Lynch zufolge bereit, den linken Anhängern seines früheren Rivalen Bernie Sanders in innenpolitischen Fragen entgegen zu kommen. In der Außenpolitik sei ein derartiger "Linksschwenk" jedoch nicht zu erwarten. "As Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, shows signs of nudging his party to the left on domestic policy — proposing student debt relief, expanded health care, and police reforms aimed at outlawing chokeholds and the transfer of weapons of war to police departments — there has been little sign of a similar move over America’s relations with the world. For many in the Democratic Party’s progressive wing who favor a more restrained America, Biden appears to be a man of the past: an unapologetic champion of American exceptionalism. (…) The development has been particularly dispiriting for left-wing Democrats, who felt they had altered the course of the party’s foreign-policy thinking during the primary campaign and demonstrated widespread popular support among Democratic voters for scaled-down military spending and a more restrained foreign policy."

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"The U.S. Election Will Determine Assad’s Future"


Der syrische Nahostexperte Iyad Yousef erläutert, warum eine Niederlage von Donald Trump bei den US-Präsidentschaftswahlen im November auch Konsequenzen für die syrische Regierung hätte. Ein Strategiewechsel der USA in Syrien wäre unter einem neuen Präsidenten zwar nicht zu erwarten, der erwartete Kurswechsel gegenüber dem Iran würde Assad allerdings indirekt zugutekommen. "If Trump wins a second term, Syrians can expect much of the same: The Trump administration will likely continue its maximum pressure campaign on Tehran, maintaining stringent sanctions on the country and forcing it to focus its resources on its own crumbling economy as well as the growing sense of public dissatisfaction with the regime. If presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden wins, however, the United States will likely pivot back toward diplomacy, choosing to engage with Iran and, crucially, reentering his predecessor’s nuclear deal. As part of this process, a Biden administration would probably lift some economic sanctions on Iran, allowing it to again focus its resources abroad. Of course, the inherent risk of such a move is that Assad would be strengthened in Syria, undermining the U.S. sanctions regime there and strengthening Iran in the Middle East. But it would also mean alleviating public grievances and putting the Syrian economy back on the path to stabilization. (…) Neither a Trump nor a Biden presidency will bring economic sanctions relief for Syria, so the country’s growth potential will remain limited as long as Assad is in power. But if Syria can again rely on substantial support from Iran, expect Assad to hold the reins of power indefinitely."

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"With Scenes of Police Brutality, America’s Beacon to the World Winks Out"


Die aktuelle "Welle" von Polizeigewalt und Rassenungerechtigkeit haben dem internationalen Ansehen der USA nach Ansicht von Colum Lynch und Robbie Gramer schweren Schaden zugefügt. "A world that once looked to the United States to champion democracy and human rights watched with dismay and alarm as police departments across the nation unleashed violent crackdowns on anti-police protesters, targeting looters, demonstrators, and journalists alike, even as President Donald Trump on Monday criticized state governors for their 'weak' response. (…) The overwhelmingly negative international reaction to the crackdown showed how far the United States’ reputation has fallen in the eyes of the world under the Trump presidency, evoking the international opprobrium directed at previous U.S. governments during the Vietnam War and civil rights era, when police in Southern states turned attack dogs on black freedom marchers. 'The erosion of U.S. global leadership has been faster than expected,' a senior European diplomat told Foreign Policy. 'Military supremacy and financial leverage is still there. However, reserves of political and 'soft' power are being depleted rapidly.'"

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"How to End the Special Relationship With Israel"


So wie der Friedensprozess im Nahen Osten einen "natürlichen Tod" starb, müsse auch Washingtons "außergewöhnliche Allianz" mit Israel ein Ende finden, fordert Steven A. Cook auf Foreign Policy. "Even if we assume that both sides want peace, it remains the case that: 1) Israel cannot satisfy the Palestinians’ minimal demands for peace, 2) the Palestinians cannot satisfy Israel’s minimal demands for peace, and 3) the United States does not have the resources or political will to alter the interests of either the Palestinians or Israel. The many analysts and officials who continue to work toward a two-state solution, however admirable their tenacity, can’t do much to clear this fundamental impasse."

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"Will a Global Depression Trigger Another World War?"


Stephen M. Walt warnt, das die weltwirtschaftlichen Folgen der Corona-Pandemie den Boden für militärische Konflikte und sogar einen neuen "Weltkrieg" bereiten könnten. "For starters, we know neither plague nor depression make war impossible. World War I ended just as the 1918-1919 influenza was beginning to devastate the world, but that pandemic didn’t stop the Russian Civil War, the Russo-Polish War, or several other serious conflicts. The Great Depression that began in 1929 didn’t prevent Japan from invading Manchuria in 1931, and it helped fuel the rise of fascism in the 1930s and made World War II more likely. So if you think major war simply can’t happen during COVID-19 and the accompanying global recession, think again. (…) a sustained economic depression could make war more likely by strengthening fascist or xenophobic political movements, fueling protectionism and hypernationalism, and making it more difficult for countries to reach mutually acceptable bargains with each other. The history of the 1930s shows where such trends can lead, although the economic effects of the Depression are hardly the only reason world politics took such a deadly turn in the 1930s. Nationalism, xenophobia, and authoritarian rule were making a comeback well before COVID-19 struck, but the economic misery now occurring in every corner of the world could intensify these trends and leave us in a more war-prone condition when fear of the virus has diminished."

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Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? Sicherheitspolitik.bpb.de liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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