US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Foreign Policy


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"Iran and Israel's Naval War Is Expanding"

Der Zusammenbruch des Libanon verschärfe den Konflikt zwischen Iran und Israel im Mittelmeer, bemerkt Anchal Vohra. "For years, Iran and Israel have engaged in tit-for-tat attacks on each other's ships in, and beyond, the Mediterranean. The conflict has mostly concentrated on Iranian oil tankers bound for oil-starved Syria. Now it seems the fight is spreading to involve a Lebanon that increasingly seems on the verge of economic collapse."

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"Biden's Afghan Withdrawal Will Spark the Next Refugee Crisis"

Der Abzug der US-Truppen aus Afghanistan werde eine neue Flüchtlingswelle in Richtung Europa auslösen, prognostiziert Elisabeth Braw. "Although Biden claims to have ended the Afghanistan War, nobody - especially not Afghans - is fooled, and Washington's best friends are being left to pick up the pieces. That task will affect ordinary Europeans, who will face the political fallout of an inevitable new refugee crisis, and it could force European governments to send their troops back."

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"Palestinians Find New Unity After War With Israel"

Der elftägige gewaltsame Konflikt zwischen der Hamas und Israel im vergangenen Mai habe das Gemeinschaftsgefühl unter Palästinenserinnen und Palästinensern gestärkt, stellt Stefanie Glinski fest. "Since the creation of the State of Israel in 1948, Palestinians have lived physically divided. In the Gaza Strip, a blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt in 2007 means that most of its people have never left the small enclave and have had vanishingly few contacts with fellow Palestinians in the West Bank or East Jerusalem. That isolation was further deepened by decades of illegal occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. (…) The recent war, and especially the social media frenzy that accompanied it, has helped tear down those divisions."

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"India Is Scrambling to Get on the Taliban's Good Side"

Indien sei angesichts der aktuellen Entwicklungen in Afghanistan besorgt, analysiert Anchal Vohra. "As the last U.S. troops withdraw from Afghanistan, there is palpable fear in New Delhi that the return of the Taliban to power might mean the return of Pakistan-funded jihadi groups that have a history of attacking India. The growing possibility that Indian troops might be called on to enter Afghanistan sparks the greatest fear of all. The Indian government is not alone. Russia, Iran, and China are also worried about spillover from an extended Afghan civil war, including a large-scale refugee crisis."

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"'It Will Not Be Just a Civil War'"

Im Gespräch mit Lynne O'Donnell skizziert der afghanische Außenminister Mohammad Haneef Atmar für sein Land zwei Zukunftsszenarien. "Scenario one: a peaceful Afghanistan that will not just benefit the Afghan people but the region and the international community. The second scenario would be an endless war. Let me warn the region and the international community: It will not be just a civil war. It will have a spillover effect and will allow transnational terrorist networks as well as transnational organized criminal groups to work together in a symbiotic fashion and to threaten the interests of the region and the international community."

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"Inside the Digital Lives of the Women of the Islamic State"

Vera Mironova beleuchtet die Online-Kommunikation von Anhängerinnen des sogenannten "Islamischen Staates", die sich aktuell in syrischen Gefangenenlagern befinden: "Little is more telling about a group of people than their private communications. (…) Years of online communication from jailed Islamic State members show that, with time, women become less and less interested in radical topics and more interested in everyday issues. Even kids throwing stones at camp guards are now met online with more criticism than support. This could be the case either because the most radical women are already repatriated (or have managed to escape) or simply because women in the camp are realizing that radicalism is not sustainable in such close quarters."

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"Beijing Eyes New Military Bases Across the Indo-Pacific"

China wolle in Kambodscha, Kiribati, Tansania und den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten Militärstützpunkte errichten, analysiert Craig Singleton. Dieser geopolitischen und militärischen Herausforderung müssten sich die Vereinigten Staaten stellen: "Whether or not Washington can derail Beijing's plans is anyone's guess. Either way, U.S. policymakers and military brass could soon wake up to a changed world, where the PLA [People's Liberation Army] can project its power far beyond the tense Taiwan Strait."

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"If Afghanistan Falls"

Djoomart Otorbaev prognostiziert die Auswirkungen einer möglichen Machtübernahme der Taliban in Afghanistan auf die regionale Stabilität Zentralasiens: "A complete Taliban takeover of the Amu Darya and Panj Rivers dividing Afghanistan from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan will likely occur within weeks. Since this outcome would allow the Taliban to control Afghanistan's international borders along this front, the risk of large refugee flows from Afghanistan into Central Asia, and then on to Russia and Europe, has sharply increased. (…) The prospect that Afghanistan will become a source of deepening poverty, mass migration, and instability is quickly becoming everyone's problem. But it is Central Asian governments that will be on the front lines."

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"Killer Flying Robots Are Here. What Do We Do Now?"

Die steigende Verfügbarkeit und schnell wachsenden Fähigkeiten von Drohnen stellten die gesamte Menschheit vor Herausforderungen, betonen Alex Salkever und Vivek Wadhwa. "First, unless we agree to halt their development and distribution, autonomous killer drones like the Kargu-2 will soon be affordable and operable by anyone - from rogue states all the way down to minor criminal gangs and individual psychopaths. Second, swarms of killer drones may, through sheer numbers, render irrelevant the defenses against terrorist threats deployed by technologically advanced nations. Third, in creating a challenging new asymmetry in warfare, autonomous killer drones threaten to upset the balance of power that otherwise keeps the peace in various regions."

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"Why U.S. Drone Strikes Are at an All-Time Low"

Seit dem Amtsantritt von Präsident Joe Biden hätten die USA deutlich weniger Drohnenangriffe durchgeführt, analysiert Michael Hirsh. "'The [United States] appears to be in a holding pattern in most conflict theaters that it still has a presence in - with no reported strikes in Yemen, Libya, Pakistan, or Somalia since Biden took office. (…) 'At the Department of Defense but also in the U.S. intelligence community, counterterrorism has taken a back seat,' said Seth Jones, a senior vice president and counterterrorism expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 'The focus of efforts is primarily on how to deal with China and to some degree Russia. And you don't need drones to deal with either of them. It's just not a priority, and that's a big shift certainly from the Obama years and partly the Trump years.'"

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"The Quad Is a Delusion"

Der Quadrilaterale Sicherheitsdialog, bestehend aus Australien, Indien, Japan und den USA, werde Washington nicht mehr Einfluss auf China verschaffen, prognostiziert Rajan Menon. "One specific facet of U.S. China policy that also blurs the Trump-Biden distinction is strengthening the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, known as the Quad. (…) The Quad's emergence shouldn't surprise Beijing. Rising powers routinely evoke countervailing coalitions, and shared anxiety about an adversary can contribute to their cohesion - but that's just a starting point. The Quad's problem is it doesn't have much else to run on and hence will ultimately amount to U.S. power with a multilateral veneer. (…) The Quad won't disappear; it will hold summits, issue statements, and stage naval exercises. But those who want it to become central to Washington's neo-containment strategy are deluding themselves."

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"The Taliban Are Winning the War of Words in Afghanistan"

Lynne O'Donnell erklärt, wie die afghanische Regierung aufgrund ihrer fehlenden öffentlichen Kommunikation den "Propagandakrieg" gegen die Taliban verliere: "'If we were looking at a breakdown of the war, it is 75 percent narrative and 25 percent actual conflict,' a senior Afghan security official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. 'Their [the Taliban's] narrative is 'we have defeated the superpower,' and that is attractive to some young people.' (…) While the Taliban trumpet their advances, there is little substantive response from the Afghan government - which lacks a clear communications strategy - or the U.S.-led international forces."

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"The Islamic State Resurges in Mozambique"

Der sogenannte "Islamische Staat" keime in Mosambik wieder auf, erläutert Emily Estelle. "This is not just Mozambique's or Africa's problem. (…) African Salafi-jihadi groups plan to or already support external attacks and are growing more lethal year by year; the refugee flows they cause will certainly affect Europe. (…) Ending Salafi-jihadi insurgencies and preventing their return and spread pose serious political and policy challenges to the international community and African countries alike. But these challenges must be met with more sustained diplomatic engagement, targeted economic support, and - most vitally - a rollback strategy that shrinks opportunities for terrorists. What's at stake for Mozambicans and for millions of Africans is nothing less than the future."

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"Is Europe Any Good at Soft Power?"

Der zunehmend aggressive Autoritarismus in Belarus stelle das diplomatische Selbstverständnis der EU auf die Probe, meint Caroline de Gruyter. "In the case of Belarus, a grant-based fellowship program could be the political gesture that so many Europeans are looking for, punishing the regime while helping its citizens. (…) Just like many Americans 100 years ago, many Europeans think they have a mission in a world full of turmoil, and they want to be proud of it. Why not turn this sentiment into a major foreign policy tool, by sharing this with the rest of the world - starting with an invitation to thousands of young Belarusian students to study in the EU, alongside Belarusian academics who join European research programs?"

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"What to Expect From the Biden-Putin Summit in Geneva"

Amy Mackinnon erörtert, was vom Treffen zwischen Russlands Präsident Wladimir Putin und US-Präsident Joe Biden am kommenden Mittwoch in Genf zu erwarten sei: "Make sure to have the phrase 'stable and predictable relationship' on your summit bingo card. These are the watchwords of the Biden administration when it comes to its approach to Russia, but even this might be a reach. (…) 'Whether we can have a stable environment, I don't think so,' said Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. 'I believe that the most that can be done as a result of the Geneva summit is the clarification for both sides of where their real red lines lie,' he said, speaking at a press briefing on Thursday."

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"Lack of Vaccines Fuels Terrorism in Africa"

Es gebe einen direkten Zusammenhang zwischen fehlendem COVID-19-Impstoff und dem Wiedererstarken des islamistischen Terrorismus in Afrika, konstatiert Rose Namayanja. "To date, less than 2 percent of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered globally have been in Africa despite the continent being home to some 1.3 billion people (…). Meanwhile, under the fog of COVID-19, the specter of conflict is rising. With African governments and their limited resources occupied by the pandemic, terrorist groups across the continent have become emboldened. We are already seeing a resurgence in attacks. (…) Without sufficient access to vaccines, instability can only worsen. Governments across Africa are reduced to blunt instruments, such as economically damaging lockdowns, to protect citizens. (…) These nations risk becoming breeding grounds for militant and terrorist groups."

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"Myanmar's Military Is a Force of Chaos, Not Stability"

Myanmars Militär - auch Tatmadaw genannt - behaupte, dass es für Frieden und Stabilität sorge, gleichwohl es seit dem Putsch Anfang Februar bereits mehr als 800 Menschen getötet habe, kommentiert Andrew Nachemson. "This dark propaganda would be easy to dismiss, if not for the fact that regional diplomats seem to buy it - or are at least going along with the narrative as a necessary part of negotiations. (…) The Tatmadaw is not protecting Myanmar but rather holding the country hostage, preventing economic and political development to maintain its own power and wealth and using the threat of violence against civilians to keep foreign intervention at bay."

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"Israel's Iron Dome Won't Last Forever"

Die jüngsten Angriffe der Hamas auf Israel hätten die Grenzen des israelischen Raketenabwehrsystems "Iron Dome" aufgezeigt, erläutert Seth Frantzman. "More than 60 rockets got through the Israeli air defense umbrella, and they were able to use barrages of rockets to go after strategic infrastructure. (…) Hamas used massive barrages of rockets in a new way, apparently designed to test or attempt to overwhelm the Iron Dome systems. In several barrages, up to 140 rockets were fired in several minutes, saturating the skies over Tel Aviv, Ashdod, and Ashkelon. (…) The message after the war is Israel's air defenses may one day not be enough to hinder volumes of rockets. Israel won't admit this, but there is a strategic peak for this technology."

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"Assad Is Friends With the Arab World Again"

Immer mehr arabische Staaten näherten sich zehn Jahre nach Beginn des Syrien-Kriegs an den syrischen Präsidenten Baschar al-Assad an, erklärt Anchal Vohra. "While Syrians had no expectations for the election, Assad used the campaign - including his slogan, 'hope through work' - to signal his regime's shift in focus from war to reconstruction. By holding the elections, he tried to show the world that Syrian institutions are functioning well and that a country that can conduct safe elections is also safe place for refugees to return to. It is, of course, a charade - but one to which Arab countries, especially in the Gulf, seem sympathetic. Syria's Arab friends are even starting, now that the elections have strengthened Assad's grip on power, to lobby for a loosening of sanctions in the United States. (…) Lebanon, Iraq, Algeria, and Sudan had always been his supporters and sought revocation of the ban. But now Syria's erstwhile opponents, which once rallied against Assad, are also treating him as an ally against the ambitions of non-Arab countries in the region, including Turkey and Iran."

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"Gen Z Reclaims the Palestinian Cause"

Palästinensische Jugendliche in Israel und im Westjordanland lenkten die Aufmerksamkeit der internationalen Gemeinschaft durch verschiedene Aktionen auf den israelisch-palästinensischen Konflikt, erläutert Dalia Hatuqa. "Despite having been denied formal participation in Palestinian elections, and their oppression at the hands of Israeli - and sometimes Palestinian - security forces, these young Palestinians have been campaigning on the ground, setting up support groups in places like Sheikh Jarrah, attending Israeli court hearings, and making their voices heard through protests and by speaking to the media. (…) Ironically, the absence of a PA [Palestinian Authority] presence in East Jerusalem - long a source of the area's political isolation - has now become an opportunity for a grassroots movement to take shape and even garner international support for the families facing expulsion in Sheikh Jarrah."

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"Putin's Shadow Warriors Stake Claim to Syria's Oil"

Eine Firma aus Russland, die in Verbindung zum privaten russischen Sicherheits- und Militärunternehmen "Wagner Group" stehen soll, habe von der syrischen Regierung einen Auftrag zur Offshore-Exploration von Öl und Gas erhalten, erläutert Amy Mackinnon. "The deal comes as Moscow seeks to entrench its strategic foothold in Syria and, by extension, further expand its reach in the Eastern Mediterranean. It also underscores how Moscow continues to outsource its trickier foreign-policy objectives to private military contractors who offer a low-risk and versatile means of intervening around the globe while maintaining a thin veneer of plausible deniability."

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"The Crisis in Space"

Es müssten dringend internationale Normen und Vorschriften für die Nutzung des Weltraums geschaffen werden, argumentieren Robert Pearson und Benjamin Schmitt. "With space activities growing so rapidly, controlling the trajectories of spacecraft and their subsystems is not just a pressing concern for people on the ground, it is also crucial in slowing the rapid accumulation of disused so-called space junk orbiting around the Earth. If left unchecked, thick fields of debris created by spent spacecraft parts colliding and breaking apart could pose a dangerous obstacle to space exploration itself - and imperil a new era of space travel just as it begins. (…) If we are to keep up with the rapid advancement of space science and meet the urgent need for global agreement, diplomacy must shape the future and not wait to react to future crises. The United States and the world's multilateral institutions can and should take that step in 2021."

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"Israel's War Will Never End"

Für Israelis und Palästinenser sei ethnische Gewalt kein vorübergehendes Problem, sondern eine dauerhafte Identität, argumentiert Steven Cook. "(…) [T]he conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is, at its core, about identity - and thus its mutual denial by the antagonists. This cannot be wished away or smoothed over by well-meaning diplomats armed with confidence-building measures, security guarantees, and development aid. It is why the hope that, during the periodic spasms of violence between Israelis and Palestinians, each will look over the abyss and avoid the worst outcome, is so misplaced. At each moment when the rockets and artillery stop, Israelis and Palestinians are never closer to figuring out how to exist together because they willfully and collectively refuse to recognize the legitimate existence of the other."

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"How Wars End"

"Track-two diplomacy", eine Spielart der Diplomatie, die den Dialog ziviler Akteure in den Mittelpunkt stellt, könne in fragmentierten Gesellschaften zu nachhaltigem Frieden beitragen, erklärt Janine di Giovanni. Trotzdem werde sie nur selten angewandt: "If track-two diplomacy promises real results, why is it not used more? According to my conversations with negotiators working on back-channel talks in Yemen, Libya, and Syria, one of the answers is that it takes time. It requires more dialogue and mediation than traditional peacemaking. It requires experts who know the country well and are committed to crafting a lasting peace, not bureaucrats who just want an agreement signed. It requires trust and secrecy. It takes into consideration human rights abuses and the justice that must be dealt."

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"The Countdown to an Israeli War With Iran Has Begun"

Sollte US-Präsident Joe Biden zur Nuklearvereinbarung mit Iran von 2015 zurückkehren, wären israelische Aktionen gegen Iran wenig überraschend, argumentiert John Hannah. "(…) [T]he Israelis believe that the results of Biden's policy will be the same: returning to a deal that enriches and strengthens a rogue regime that is committed to Israel's destruction, while paving its path to obtaining nuclear weapons in less than a decade. The Israelis have been relentlessly signaling that they will not tolerate such a situation. (…) Israel's extraordinary covert operations over the past few years to expose and set back Iran's nuclear program are only a foreshadowing both of what's yet to come if Israel becomes convinced that its concerns about the nuclear deal won't be seriously addressed and of how determined it is to do whatever is necessary to keep the Iranian nuclear threat at bay. (…) Despite all the Biden administration's best intentions, the risk of war in the Middle East is almost certainly now rising."

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"Australia Draws a Line on China"

Australien verfolge mittlerweile einen ungewöhnlich konfrontativen Ansatz gegenüber China, erläutern Jack Detsch und Keith Johnson. "In years past, Australia, like many of its neighbors, tried to have it both ways - enjoying a booming economic relationship with China while sheltering under a security umbrella provided largely by the United States. (…) The mood in Australia began changing after an investigation by the popular TV show Four Corners in 2017 on Chinese influence within local politics, prompting a series of further reports, lawsuits, and mutual accusations. But it was the coronavirus that put a sharp end to any optimism about China. When Australia came out as one of the first countries calling for an independent inquiry into the origins of the virus's explosion in China's Wuhan province, Beijing exploded. (…) Australia has already started to recalibrate many aspects of its relationship with China, nixing loads of Chinese investment projects and placing more than 1,000 other proposed deals under review."

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"Why Mohammed bin Salman Suddenly Wants to Talk to Iran"

In einem Fernsehinterview betonte Mohammed bin Salman jüngst, gute Beziehungen zu Iran anstreben zu wollen. Noch vor vier Jahren habe der saudische Kronprinz einen Dialog mit dem Land ausgeschlossen, bemerkt Trita Parsi. Grund für die Kehrtwende sei: "Washington's turn away from entangling itself in the quarrels and stratagems of its Middle Eastern partners has compelled the region's powers to explore their own diplomacy. (…) Mohammed bin Salman's soothing comments were most likely a reference to secret talks between Iran and its Arab neighbors in Iraq, first reported by the Financial Times, that were aimed at reducing tensions and putting an end to the war in Yemen."

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"In Tigray, Sexual Violence Has Become a Weapon of War"

In Äthiopiens Krisenregion Tigray würden Soldaten der äthiopischen und eritreischen Armee sexuelle Gewalt gegen Frauen als Kriegswaffe einsetzen, erläutern Helen Clark und Rachel Kyte. "This reality can no longer be ignored or denied. Doing so is not a matter of attributing blame for who began the hostilities in Tigray last year. It is not a matter of regrettable civilian casualties as a collateral to military operations. Rather, it is a recognition of war crimes and probably crimes against humanity being committed against women and girls. (…) The women and girls of Tigray need compassion and support immediately - and in the future - to deal with the trauma and deprivations they face. But speaking out to condemn unconscionable violations is a first step."

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"China Doesn't Pose an Existential Threat for America"

Die Sorgen der EU und USA über Chinas militärischen und wirtschaftlichen Aufstieg seien übertrieben, argumentiert Michael Swaine. "There is no doubt that Beijing's behavior in many areas challenges existing U.S. and allied interests and democratic values. (…) This deeply troubling behavior certainly requires a strong, concerted response from the United States and other nations. But to be effective, such a response also requires an accurate assessment of China's future impact on the United States and the world. (…) In fact, there isn't much actual evidence to support the notion of China as an existential threat. That does not mean that China is not a threat in some areas, but Washington needs to approach this issue based on the facts, not dangerous rhetoric. (…) As a military power, China has no ability to destroy the United States without destroying itself."

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