US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Foreign Policy


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11.10.2021

"AUKUS Is a Short-Term Mess but a Long-Term Win for Australia"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/11/aukus-australia-long-term-win/

Australien werde langfristig von dem kürzlich mit Großbritannien und den USA geschlossenen Sicherheitsbündnis "AUKUS" profitieren, prognostiziert Alexander Vuving. "AUKUS has immediately damaged Australia's relations with several important partners in Southeast Asia and Europe. France, Germany, Indonesia, and Malaysia have all registered their unhappiness with the new alliance. Yet there are strong reasons to think AUKUS is the right choice for Australia in the long run. (…) Australia has realized its freedom, autonomy, sovereignty, and dignity won't be respected in a Chinese-led world order. (…) It is in its national interest to protect the liberal rules-based order and reject China's hierarchical order. The sage advice for Australia in this regard is to seek alliances with those that are committed to a rules-based order rather than hedge its bets with China's international hierarchy."

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10.10.2021

"Sea Power Makes Great Powers"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/10/us-navy-sea-power-china-decline-military-strategy/

Aufstieg und Niedergang eines Staates hingen mit der Stärke seiner Marine zusammen, konstatiert Jerry Hendrix. "Throughout history, large naval and merchant fleets represented not just a power multiplier but an exponential growth factor in terms of national influence. (…) Now, in this third decade of the 21st century, the United States must not ignore the rhymes of history, repeating the mistakes of the sea power that came before it - Britain - by lulling itself into the false belief that it can divest to invest in a brighter future while China maneuvers to overtake it. It must have larger defense budgets that will allow for a sea power-focused national security strategy in the face of rising threats. The United States must recognize yet again - as others have before it - that on the world's oceans, quantity has a quality all its own."

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05.10.2021

"Don't Arm the Afghan Resistance"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/05/dont-arm-afghan-resistance-panjshir-massoud/

Die Bewaffnung von Gegnern der Taliban würde einen Bürgerkrieg in Afghanistan auslösen, warnt Bilal Saab. "More than 20 years of experience in Afghanistan have clearly shown that military pressure against the Taliban didn't succeed in taming them one bit or in forcing them to cut ties with al Qaeda. (…) If the United States arms Afghan insurgents today, Pakistan will intensify its support to the Taliban until they regain control. The last thing Washington needs in Afghanistan is an even more strained relationship with Islamabad."

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03.10.2021

"Afghanistan Isn't Good Terrorist Real Estate"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/03/afghanistan-isnt-good-terrorist-real-estate/

Die in den USA verbreitete Sorge, dass Afghanistan nach dem Abzug der US-Truppen erneut zu einem sicheren Hafen für den internationalen Terrorismus werden könnte, fuße auf den Ereignissen vom 11. September 2001, schreibt Paul Pillar. "Because of the trauma of 9/11, fear of terrorism emanating from Afghanistan will forever lurk in American minds. Fear of the political fallout from a future terrorist incident somehow connected, however tenuously, to Afghanistan probably is part of what led three U.S. presidents to keep troops there before Joe Biden finally pulled the plug on the operation. There are no guarantees about how policies toward Afghanistan will affect the danger of terrorism against Americans. But considering all the relevant factors and not just one or two, that danger is less with the U.S. military out of Afghanistan than it would be if U.S. forces remained there."

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01.10.2021

"Biden Team Fears North Korean Sanctions Aren't Biting"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/01/biden-north-korea-nuclear-weapons-kim-jong-un-sanctions/

Das US-Außenministerium sei einem Bericht zufolge besorgt, dass UN-Mitgliedsstaaten nicht in der Lage seien, die Sanktionen gegen Nordkorea vollständig umzusetzen, schreibt Jack Detsch. "The report is a sign that U.S. President Joe Biden's administration is looking to restore the sanctions network that fell apart during the last several years of failed nuclear talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. In the report, submitted to Congress in April, the State Department conceded to lawmakers that the lack of international capacity to help make sanctions bite is 'one of the most significant challenges to full implementation.' (…) In the April report, the State Department told Congress it is offering training to help foreign governments and private sector companies identify and stop North Korean money laundering and commercial activities, including coal and minerals trade, luxury goods, and arms trafficking."

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24.09.2021

"China Is a Declining Power - and That's the Problem"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/24/china-great-power-united-states/

Der vermeintlich drohende Niedergang Chinas stelle ein Sicherheitsrisiko für die USA dar, warnen Michael Beckley und Hal Brands. "Over the past 150 years, peaking powers - great powers that had been growing dramatically faster than the world average and then suffered a severe, prolonged slowdown - usually don't fade away quietly. Rather, they become brash and aggressive. (…) This is the real trap the United States should worry about regarding China today - the trap in which an aspiring superpower peaks and then refuses to bear the painful consequences of descent. (…) To be clear, China probably won't undertake an all-out military rampage across Asia, as Japan did in the 1930s and early 1940s. But it will run greater risks and accept greater tensions as it tries to lock in key gains."

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23.09.2021

"NATO Chief on Afghan Legacy: 'Have To Ask Some Difficult Questions'"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/23/nato-jens-stoltenberg-aukus-afghanistan-legacy-terrorism-russia-unit
ed-nations-general-assembly-military/

Im Gespräch mit Robbie Gramer resümiert NATO-Generalsekretär Jens Stoltenberg: "At no juncture in Afghanistan was it easy to leave. We were always faced with hard and difficult dilemmas, as we were this summer when allies finally decided to end our military presence in Afghanistan. There were never any easy options in Afghanistan, never any risk-free decisions, but we made significant achievements in the fight against terrorism, supporting education [and] social and economic progress. If needed, we need to be able to use force again, but at the same time, we need to also fully understand that it's often easier to start than to end a military mission."

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22.09.2021

"Could Somalia Be the Next Afghanistan?"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/22/could-somalia-alshabab-taliban-next-afghanistan/

Sollten die somalischen Eliten und westlichen Regierungen ihr Vorgehen in Somalia nicht ändern, drohe in dem ostafrikanischen Land ein ähnlicher Zusammenbruch von staatlichen Institutionen wie in Afghanistan, erklären Abdihakim Ainte und Omar Mahmood. "A crucial first step would be to ensure a smooth and credible electoral process. This would help the country move on from the stalemated election cycle, produce fresh thinking and leadership to tackle the many urgent issues Somalia confronts, and pave the way for the necessary reconciliation in order to move forward. (…) Outside actors should deliver a clear message to Somali elites that further wrangling and an inability to move forward will mean a reassessment of their investment. (…) Engaging al-Shabab to lay down its arms will have to be part of the equation in Somalia, despite all the challenges and uncertainties this poses, given that an outright military victory is unlikely."

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21.09.2021

"How Not to Lose the Peace in Afghanistan"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/21/taliban-afghanistan-un-peacekeeping-mission-civil-war/

Es sei die Pflicht der Vereinten Nationen, den zerbrechlichen Frieden in Afghanistan zu sichern, schreiben Charli Charpenter und Lise Howard. "Rather than take sides and foment continued war, the international community should support a durable peace in Afghanistan through a peace agreement and an international preventive peacekeeping mission. The Taliban could begin to earn the respect and recognition of the international community by requesting such help, and perhaps they could even gain full international recognition as part of a peace deal."

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14.09.2021

"Israel Can Live With a New Iran Nuclear Deal, Defense Minister Says"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/14/israel-iran-nuclear-deal-defense-minister-gantz/

Neri Zilber fasst die Aussagen von Israels Verteidigungsminister Benny Gantz im Gespräch mit Foreign Policy zusammen: "Israel would be willing to accept a return to a U.S.-negotiated nuclear deal with Iran, Defense Minister Benny Gantz told Foreign Policy - but Israeli officials are also pressing Washington to prepare a serious 'demonstration of power' in case negotiations with Tehran fail. The remarks (…) appear to reflect a shift in policy for Israel, which under the leadership of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu loudly opposed the 2015 nuclear agreement and worked to undermine it."

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13.09.2021

"The Taliban's Victory Is Al Qaeda's Victory"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/13/taliban-victory-afghanistan-al-qaeda-victory-911/

Rita Katz skizziert die Reaktion der Terrororganisation Al-Qaida auf die Machtübernahme der Taliban in Afghanistan: "Al Qaeda Central and its affiliates, aligned scholars and social media groups - all have voiced their elation and shared sense of victory. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula called the Taliban's conquest 'the beginning of a pivotal transformation.' Al Qaeda's North Africa and Sahel-based branches jointly called it proof that militant jihad is the only 'path to glory.' (…) [T]he Taliban's activity in recent years - as well as al Qaeda's - indicates they have no plans to cut ties with their longtime partner."

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09.09.2021

"Islamic State-Khorasan's Reach Extends Far Beyond Afghanistan"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/09/islamic-state-khorasan-afghanistan-pakistan-central-asia-online-extr
emism-terrorism/

Robert Muggah und Rafal Rohozinsk skizzieren die Entwicklung, Aktivitäten und Ziele des sogenannten "Islamischen Staat in der Provinz Khorasan". "Islamic State-Khorasan is a violent extremist group familiar to terrorist watchers: It has carried out scores of attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan since first establishing itself in 2015. Islamic State-Khorasan also maintains a lively presence on social media and encrypted messaging platforms across South and Central Asia. (…) Unlike the Taliban, which focus on Afghanistan, Islamic State-Khorasan exhibits regional and millenarian ambitions such as uniting Muslims across South Asia, Central Asia, and beyond. Islamic State-Khorasan's hardline Islamist ideology, which makes the Taliban appear moderate, limits its mass appeal. (…) With an increasing number of South and Central Asians joining mainstream social media platforms, we can expect Islamic State-Khorasan influence operations to grow."

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27.08.2021

"In Taliban's New Afghan Emirate, Women Are Invisible"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/27/women-afghanistan-taliban-invisible-future/

Welche Folgen hat die Machtübernahme der Taliban für Frauen in Afghanistan? Lynne O'Donnell erklärt: "As the Taliban consolidate control over their new Islamic emirate in Afghanistan, women have largely disappeared from public as extremists force them from their jobs and into their homes, bringing an end to 20 years of progress toward freedom and equality. (…) Since Aug. 15, when the militant group took over the capital, Taliban spokespeople have attempted to placate fears of a return to the pre-2001 strictures, saying women will live according to sharia law, though without elaborating what that might mean in practice. (…) In some parts of the country, women are being married to Taliban fighters as spoils of war."

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26.08.2021

"The Taliban Are Far Closer to the Islamic State Than They Claim"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/26/afghanistan-kabul-airport-attack-taliban-islamic-state/

Sajjan Gohel beleuchtet das Verhältnis der Taliban zum sogenannten "Islamischen Staat in der Provinz Khorasan" (IS-K): "It's often said there's a clear split between Islamic State-Khorasan and the Taliban, but the harsh reality of terrorism and politics in Afghanistan is the situation is never black and white. Sworn enemies can fight each other one day and collaborate for mutual gain the next day. These groups are intertwined and interconnected. Their tribal and marriage ties ensure ideological separations do not cause permanent fault lines. (…) The airport and hotel attacks are only the beginning of Afghanistan's nightmare. The Taliban will use the incident to further crack down on Afghan civilian freedoms under the guise of security. (…) For them, the death of innocent Afghans at the hands of the Islamic State-Khorasan is merely a strategic means to an end."

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18.08.2021

"Why Iran Will Welcome the Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/18/why-iran-will-welcome-the-taliban-takeover-in-afghanistan/

Shelly Kittleson beleuchtet Irans Verhältnis mit den Taliban: "Iran has a long history of hosting both key al Qaeda members as well as Taliban leaders. (…) Multiple reports in recent years have accused Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of providing weaponry and training for the Taliban. In February 2017, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan told Congress that Iran was supporting the Taliban to undermine the U.S. mission in the country, noting that 'Russia, Iran, and al Qaeda are playing significant roles in Afghanistan.' (…) A major reason for Iranian support for the Taliban is Iran's need for the water that flows into the country from across the border."

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17.08.2021

"How to Make Iran Trust a New Nuclear Deal"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/17/iran-nuclear-deal-talks-biden-raisi/

Um ein langfristiges Engagement der USA für ein Nuklearabkommen mit Iran zu garantieren, müsse eine umfangreichere Übereinkunft getroffen werden, kommentieren Bijan Khajehpour und Trita Parsi. "Biden has sincerely sought an agreement since mid-March. Yet, the cost of his dithering during his first two months in office is only starting to become clear now. (…) Predictably, Iran's new hard-line president now seems poised to drive a harder bargain and, by that, potentially jeopardize the opportunity to revive the landmark agreement. (…) In this regard, the pact, as written, suffers a significant imbalance: A substantial asymmetry exists between Tehran's and Washington's incentives to honor the deal. The only side that truly would suffer from withdrawing would be Iran, while the United States would pay little to nothing if it did the same. (…) Most importantly, the best way to guarantee the United States' long-term commitment to the Iran deal is through a larger agreement with give-and-take between Washington and Tehran on additional matters in return for the lifting of U.S. primary sanctions on Iran."

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04.08.2021

"Raisi Will Yank Biden Back Into the Middle East"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/04/raisi-iran-biden-nuclear-talks-middle-east/

Der neue iranische Präsident Ebrahim Raissi werde die USA im Mittleren Osten stärker fordern, als es der Biden-Administration recht sei, meint Michael Hirsh. "Even before Thursday's swearing-in of Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's incoming, hard-line president, the Islamic Republic was escalating hostilities on several fronts in the Middle East. Now Tehran is only likely to get more aggressive, experts say, and that means U.S. President Joe Biden—like so many of his predecessors—may not get his wish to downgrade the region's strategic importance."

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22.07.2021

"Get Ready for a Spike in Global Unrest"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/22/covid-global-unrest-political-upheaval/

Elise Labott warnt vor möglichen destabilisierenden Folgen der COVID-19-Pandemie: "The coronavirus pandemic was a once-in-a-century crisis that not only shocked countries' existing health systems but also demanded a response that impacted - and was itself shaped by - economic, political, and security considerations. The efforts to contain it may have curbed fatalities in the short term but have inadvertently deepened vulnerabilities that laid the groundwork for longer-term violence, conflict, and political upheaval and should serve as a danger sign to world leaders as countries reopen - including in the United States."

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19.07.2021

"Iran and Israel's Naval War Is Expanding"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/19/iran-and-israels-naval-war-is-expanding/

Der Zusammenbruch des Libanon verschärfe den Konflikt zwischen Iran und Israel im Mittelmeer, bemerkt Anchal Vohra. "For years, Iran and Israel have engaged in tit-for-tat attacks on each other's ships in, and beyond, the Mediterranean. The conflict has mostly concentrated on Iranian oil tankers bound for oil-starved Syria. Now it seems the fight is spreading to involve a Lebanon that increasingly seems on the verge of economic collapse."

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14.07.2021

"Biden's Afghan Withdrawal Will Spark the Next Refugee Crisis"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/14/biden-afghan-withdrawal-europe-refugee-crisis/

Der Abzug der US-Truppen aus Afghanistan werde eine neue Flüchtlingswelle in Richtung Europa auslösen, prognostiziert Elisabeth Braw. "Although Biden claims to have ended the Afghanistan War, nobody - especially not Afghans - is fooled, and Washington's best friends are being left to pick up the pieces. That task will affect ordinary Europeans, who will face the political fallout of an inevitable new refugee crisis, and it could force European governments to send their troops back."

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13.07.2021

"Palestinians Find New Unity After War With Israel"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/13/palestinian-unity-israel-hamas-war/

Der elftägige gewaltsame Konflikt zwischen der Hamas und Israel im vergangenen Mai habe das Gemeinschaftsgefühl unter Palästinenserinnen und Palästinensern gestärkt, stellt Stefanie Glinski fest. "Since the creation of the State of Israel in 1948, Palestinians have lived physically divided. In the Gaza Strip, a blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt in 2007 means that most of its people have never left the small enclave and have had vanishingly few contacts with fellow Palestinians in the West Bank or East Jerusalem. That isolation was further deepened by decades of illegal occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. (…) The recent war, and especially the social media frenzy that accompanied it, has helped tear down those divisions."

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13.07.2021

"India Is Scrambling to Get on the Taliban's Good Side"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/13/india-is-scrambling-to-get-on-the-talibans-good-side/

Indien sei angesichts der aktuellen Entwicklungen in Afghanistan besorgt, analysiert Anchal Vohra. "As the last U.S. troops withdraw from Afghanistan, there is palpable fear in New Delhi that the return of the Taliban to power might mean the return of Pakistan-funded jihadi groups that have a history of attacking India. The growing possibility that Indian troops might be called on to enter Afghanistan sparks the greatest fear of all. The Indian government is not alone. Russia, Iran, and China are also worried about spillover from an extended Afghan civil war, including a large-scale refugee crisis."

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09.07.2021

"'It Will Not Be Just a Civil War'"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/09/afghanistan-war-withdrawal-taliban-mohammad-hanif-atmar-foreign-mini
ster-interview/

Im Gespräch mit Lynne O'Donnell skizziert der afghanische Außenminister Mohammad Haneef Atmar für sein Land zwei Zukunftsszenarien. "Scenario one: a peaceful Afghanistan that will not just benefit the Afghan people but the region and the international community. The second scenario would be an endless war. Let me warn the region and the international community: It will not be just a civil war. It will have a spillover effect and will allow transnational terrorist networks as well as transnational organized criminal groups to work together in a symbiotic fashion and to threaten the interests of the region and the international community."

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08.07.2021

"Inside the Digital Lives of the Women of the Islamic State"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/08/islamic-state-women-prison-radicalism-telegram/

Vera Mironova beleuchtet die Online-Kommunikation von Anhängerinnen des sogenannten "Islamischen Staates", die sich aktuell in syrischen Gefangenenlagern befinden: "Little is more telling about a group of people than their private communications. (…) Years of online communication from jailed Islamic State members show that, with time, women become less and less interested in radical topics and more interested in everyday issues. Even kids throwing stones at camp guards are now met online with more criticism than support. This could be the case either because the most radical women are already repatriated (or have managed to escape) or simply because women in the camp are realizing that radicalism is not sustainable in such close quarters."

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07.07.2021

"Beijing Eyes New Military Bases Across the Indo-Pacific"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/07/china-pla-military-bases-kiribati-uae-cambodia-tanzania-djibouti-ind
o-pacific-ports-airfields/

China wolle in Kambodscha, Kiribati, Tansania und den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten Militärstützpunkte errichten, analysiert Craig Singleton. Dieser geopolitischen und militärischen Herausforderung müssten sich die Vereinigten Staaten stellen: "Whether or not Washington can derail Beijing's plans is anyone's guess. Either way, U.S. policymakers and military brass could soon wake up to a changed world, where the PLA [People's Liberation Army] can project its power far beyond the tense Taiwan Strait."

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06.07.2021

"If Afghanistan Falls"

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/afghanistan-taliban-implications-for-central-asia-china-russ
ia-europe-by-djoomart-otorbaev-2021-07

Djoomart Otorbaev prognostiziert die Auswirkungen einer möglichen Machtübernahme der Taliban in Afghanistan auf die regionale Stabilität Zentralasiens: "A complete Taliban takeover of the Amu Darya and Panj Rivers dividing Afghanistan from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan will likely occur within weeks. Since this outcome would allow the Taliban to control Afghanistan's international borders along this front, the risk of large refugee flows from Afghanistan into Central Asia, and then on to Russia and Europe, has sharply increased. (…) The prospect that Afghanistan will become a source of deepening poverty, mass migration, and instability is quickly becoming everyone's problem. But it is Central Asian governments that will be on the front lines."

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05.07.2021

"Killer Flying Robots Are Here. What Do We Do Now?"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/05/killer-flying-robots-drones-autonomous-ai-artificial-intelligence-fa
cial-recognition-targets-turkey-libya/

Die steigende Verfügbarkeit und schnell wachsenden Fähigkeiten von Drohnen stellten die gesamte Menschheit vor Herausforderungen, betonen Alex Salkever und Vivek Wadhwa. "First, unless we agree to halt their development and distribution, autonomous killer drones like the Kargu-2 will soon be affordable and operable by anyone - from rogue states all the way down to minor criminal gangs and individual psychopaths. Second, swarms of killer drones may, through sheer numbers, render irrelevant the defenses against terrorist threats deployed by technologically advanced nations. Third, in creating a challenging new asymmetry in warfare, autonomous killer drones threaten to upset the balance of power that otherwise keeps the peace in various regions."

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01.07.2021

"Why U.S. Drone Strikes Are at an All-Time Low"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/01/us-drone-strikes-all-time-low-biden-forever-wars/

Seit dem Amtsantritt von Präsident Joe Biden hätten die USA deutlich weniger Drohnenangriffe durchgeführt, analysiert Michael Hirsh. "'The [United States] appears to be in a holding pattern in most conflict theaters that it still has a presence in - with no reported strikes in Yemen, Libya, Pakistan, or Somalia since Biden took office. (…) 'At the Department of Defense but also in the U.S. intelligence community, counterterrorism has taken a back seat,' said Seth Jones, a senior vice president and counterterrorism expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 'The focus of efforts is primarily on how to deal with China and to some degree Russia. And you don't need drones to deal with either of them. It's just not a priority, and that's a big shift certainly from the Obama years and partly the Trump years.'"

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28.06.2021

"The Quad Is a Delusion"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/28/quad-delusion-china-power-containment/

Der Quadrilaterale Sicherheitsdialog, bestehend aus Australien, Indien, Japan und den USA, werde Washington nicht mehr Einfluss auf China verschaffen, prognostiziert Rajan Menon. "One specific facet of U.S. China policy that also blurs the Trump-Biden distinction is strengthening the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, known as the Quad. (…) The Quad's emergence shouldn't surprise Beijing. Rising powers routinely evoke countervailing coalitions, and shared anxiety about an adversary can contribute to their cohesion - but that's just a starting point. The Quad's problem is it doesn't have much else to run on and hence will ultimately amount to U.S. power with a multilateral veneer. (…) The Quad won't disappear; it will hold summits, issue statements, and stage naval exercises. But those who want it to become central to Washington's neo-containment strategy are deluding themselves."

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21.06.2021

"The Taliban Are Winning the War of Words in Afghanistan"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/21/taliban-afghanistan-war-propaganda/

Lynne O'Donnell erklärt, wie die afghanische Regierung aufgrund ihrer fehlenden öffentlichen Kommunikation den "Propagandakrieg" gegen die Taliban verliere: "'If we were looking at a breakdown of the war, it is 75 percent narrative and 25 percent actual conflict,' a senior Afghan security official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. 'Their [the Taliban's] narrative is 'we have defeated the superpower,' and that is attractive to some young people.' (…) While the Taliban trumpet their advances, there is little substantive response from the Afghan government - which lacks a clear communications strategy - or the U.S.-led international forces."

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