US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

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"How Does China Aim to Use AI in Warfare?"

Künstliche Intelligenz sei für das chinesische Militär von großer Bedeutung, da sie Peking eine Möglichkeit biete, mit den USA auf Augenhöhe konkurrieren zu können, argumentiert Yuan-Chou Jing. "Chinese military thinkers believe that under conditions of informatized warfare, dominating a system of systems confrontation rather than the large-scale attrition of enemy forces is the key factor in winning. Therefore, the PLA's [People's Liberation Army] main strategy to defeat an adversary on the battleground is by creating disruption or paralysis on the enemy side through a system of systems operations. AI [Artificial Intelligence] is believed to play a central role in intelligentized warfare to target and crash key elements of opponent operational systems."

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"Is There Any Solution to Myanmar's Rohingya Crisis?"

Der Putsch des myanmarischen Militärs im vergangenen Februar würde die Rückkehr von mehr als einer Million Rohingya-Geflüchteten nach Myanmar erschweren, konstatiert Sebastian Strangio. "More than 1 million mostly Muslim Rohingya civilians have been entrapped, limbo-like, in the rambling refugee camps that surround the town of Cox's Bazar in southeastern Bangladesh, since fleeing in scorched-earth military offensives in Myanmar's Rakhine State in 2016 and 2017. While a solution was remote even before the coup, the new crisis has further compounded their troubles, complicating any resolution to the refugee emergency, while also distracting international attention away from what might be done to resolve it. (…) Like many of Myanmar's challenges, any resolution to the Rohingya crisis will rely heavily on a resolution to the country's wider political impasse."

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"The China-Iran Strategic Partnership: 40 Years in the Making"

Alexander Eliasen und Satgin Hamrah beleuchten die Entwicklung der bilateralen Beziehungen zwischen China und Iran: "Cooperation between these two nations is not new and has been developing in its current context since the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988). Their pragmatic friendship took root during this war, establishing the foundation for a partnership that today is strengthening Iran's economic and regional position and gives China a strategic foothold in the Middle East."

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"Nuclear Proliferation Concerns in East Asia: Beyond North Korea"

Hart Rapaport gibt einen Überblick über die Aktivitäten ostasiatischer Länder im Nuklearwaffenbereich: "It's easy to look at North Korea and see obvious analogues to WMD-equipped dictatorships elsewhere in the world. But the nuclear situation in East Asia is more nuanced than the actions of a single nation. In actuality, much of the work to be done is with democratic states - most notably South Korea and Japan - which feel continued pressure from regional rivals. South Korea, for example, has taken steps to expand its array of weapons technologies, with recent submarine-launched ballistic missile tests demonstrating a commitment to self-defense. (…) Pitfalls abound elsewhere in the region. Most notably, Japan's stockpile of plutonium remains a cause for concern."

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"Impact of AUKUS on US-EU Relations"

Im Gespräch mit Mercy Kuo skizziert Frédéric Grare, Senior Policy Fellow beim European Council on Foreign Relations, die Auswirkungen der AUKUS-Vereinbarung zwischen Australien, Großbritannien und den USA auf die transatlantischen Beziehungen: "The scrapping of the contract between France and Australia, without any consultation between Paris on the one side, and Canberra, London, and Washington on the other, may have been a bilateral matter, but it certainly did raise questions in many capitals as to what it means to be a U.S. ally. (…) The announcement of AUKUS shortly before the release of the EU Strategy cooperation in the Indo-Pacific moreover demonstrated at the very least a deep disregard for the Europeans. No dramatic reactions should be expected in the short term. But lessons will be drawn from the episode."

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"German Navy Chief Vows Long-term Commitment to Indo-Pacific"

Dem Inspekteur der deutschen Marine, Vizeadmiral Kay-Achim Schönbach, zufolge werde die Bundeswehr auch in Zukunft im indopazifischen Raum aktiv sein, erläutert Mari Yamaguchi. "In Tokyo for a port call by the frigate Bayern, the German navy chief underscored his country's concerns about freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific. (…) Schonbach said the Bayern's visit is the beginning of a long-term commitment to the region by Germany. It plans to dispatch military aircraft next year and a fleet of frigates and supply ships within two to three years, he said."

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"Time to Pursue Arms Control With North Korea"

Rüstungskontrolle zwischen Nordkorea und den USA sei der vielversprechendste Weg, um einen Konflikt auf der koreanischen Halbinsel zu verhindern, argumentiert Manseok Lee. "Now is the time to engage in an uncomfortable but realistic debate concerning the management of North Korea's nuclear threats and the reduction of the risk of inadvertent war on the Korean Peninsula. There are two distinct options in this regard. The first is to allow South Korea to acquire its own nuclear weapons. (…) The second option is arms control between the United States and North Korea. (…) As an alternative to letting the present situation continue unimpeded, the arms control approach is worth considering, as it could cap North Korea's nuclear development and also lay the groundwork for the gradual denuclearization of North Korea."

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"Artificial Intelligence and Big Data in the Indo-Pacific"

Im Gespräch mit Jongsoo Lee erklärt Simon Chesterman, Professor an der National University of Singapore, wie Länder im indopazifischen Raum Künstliche Intelligenz (engl. artificial intelligence, kurz: AI) und Big Data zur Stärkung der nationalen Sicherheit einsetzen: "On offense, the real winners have been China and, in particular, North Korea. Though it's often more a question of cybersecurity than AI or big data as such, both countries have developed a reputation for hacking. (…) On defense, there's a lot more going on. Most countries are now trying to work out how to defend against hostile information campaigns, for example. Singapore recently passed the Foreign Interference (Countermeasures) Act (FICA) that gives the government extraordinary powers to address threatened or actual attacks."

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"CIA Creates Working Group on China as Threats Keep Rising"

Der US-Geheimdienst CIA plane die Einrichtung einer Arbeitsgruppe zu China, beobachtet Nomaan Merchant. "The group will become one of fewer than a dozen mission centers operated by the CIA, with weekly director-level meetings intended to drive the agency's strategy toward China. The CIA also announced that it would ramp up efforts to recruit Chinese speakers and create another mission center focusing on emerging technologies and global issues such as climate change and global health."

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"Tensions Rise Between Tajikistan and the Taliban"

Pakistan und Russland hätten Tadschikistan und die Taliban aufgefordert, den sich an der afghanisch-tadschikischen Grenze anbahnenden Konflikt zu entschärfen, bemerkt Catherine Putz. "Since the Taliban's August 15 takeover of Afghanistan and the collapse of the previous Western-backed government, [Tajikistan's President Emomali] Rahmon has maintained a distinctly standoffish attitude. (…) Taliban perceptions that Tajikistan is aiding the resistance to its dominion in Afghanistan turn the heat up further on the border. (…) On October 4, RFE/RL reported that Taliban fighters had allegedly killed an Afghan man seeking to cross into Tajikistan amid a larger raid by Taliban forces attempting to turn would-be refugees back from the border."

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"Beijing and the UN, 50 Years On"

Vor fünfzig Jahren trat die Volksrepublik China offiziell den Vereinten Nationen bei, erinnert Rosemary Foot. "Some 50 years later, the PRC [People's Republic of China] is well-embedded in the U.N. with status as one of the five permanent members (P5) of the Security Council and influence with many states in the U.N. General Assembly. (…) In Beijing's official view, it is 'firmly committed to safeguarding the U.N.-centered global governance system, the basic norms of international relations underpinned by the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter, the authority and stature of the U.N., and the central role of the U.N. in international affairs.' (…) However, closer examination of China's relationship with the U.N. since its entry in 1971 shows that its attitude toward the body is far more ambivalent than these proclamations imply, and at times contradicts their alleged intent."

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"Iran and Pakistan: Bilateral Bonding Over the Taliban"

Um einen Bürgerkrieg in Afghanistan zu verhindern, würden Iran und Pakistan zusammenarbeiten, stellt Umair Jamal fest. "While there are differences in the Afghan policies of Pakistan and Iran, emerging geopolitical realities in the region seem to be forcing both countries to work together in Afghanistan. In recent years, Iran has come to realize that working with the Taliban better suit its interests than promoting anti-Taliban fronts in an attempt to isolate the group. To an extent, this vision on Tehran's end essentially binds it with Islamabad's pro-Taliban Afghan policy. (…) Iran and Pakistan's political and military leaders have participated in several meetings that have called on the Taliban to honor their commitments."

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"The Barriers to China-Iran Military Diplomacy"

Masoud Rezaei beleuchtet die militärischen Beziehungen zwischen China und Iran. "Despite overlaps in the foreign policies of the two countries, there exist serious differences between definitions and practices regarding military diplomacy. (…) China seeks to improve its global image by 2035, using its military diplomacy as a supporting tool for its broader diplomatic agenda in foreign policy. Iran, on the other hand, pursues military diplomacy with China with the twin objectives of 'deterrence' (purchasing arms and transferring military technology) and 'coalition-building' to confront the United States (i.e. outward balancing)."

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"Why Taiwan Matters to the United States"

Der Schutz Taiwans sei aufgrund seines autonomen, demokratischen Status ein Kerninteresse der USA, konstatieren John Bolton und Derik Zitelman. "Although the 1980 Taiwan Relations Act aimed to cushion Washington's derecognition of the Republic of China in 1979, Taiwan has struggled to maintain relationships with other states, a challenge exacerbated by China's growing power. The resulting absurdity leaves 23 million Taiwanese able to trade, travel, and negotiate - even to compete at the Olympics under the name 'Chinese Taipei' - without enjoying the privileges of statehood. (…) China must already consider U.S. or Japanese involvement in its Taiwan plans. Thus a small force, far from acting as a 'tripwire,' is more likely to imperil allied options by creating a force in need of rescue or a moral hazard that discourages an effective Taiwanese defense and causes over-expectations of U.S. support."

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"Pakistan's Problem With Violence Against Women Is Growing Impossible to Ignore"

Gehäufte Fälle geschlechtsspezifischer Gewalt würden die beklagenswerte Situation der Frauen und ihrer Rechte in Pakistan verdeutlichen, schreibt Somaiyah Hafeez. "Social media in Pakistan was already trending with hashtags demanding #justiceforQuratulain and #justficeforSaima when the brutal murder and beheading of Noor Mukadam, the 27-year-old daughter of Pakistan's ex-ambassador to South Korea and Kazakhstan, at the hands of Zahir Jaffer, son of a business tycoon, in the capital city Islamabad shocked the country. With the wave of horrific murders, Pakistan may finally be awakening to endemic gender-based violence. (…) Cases of gender-based violence are grossly underreported in Pakistan and there is no way to make a correct estimate. However, the few cases that make it to social media are a representation of the state of affairs of women rights in the country. The list of women facing violence, being killed and raped, is unending and tragic."

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"With Eyes on Afghanistan, Russian Military Exercises in Central Asia"

Russische und usbekische Truppen hätten am vergangenen Montag gemeinsame Militärübungen in der Nähe der afghanischen Grenze begonnen, beobachtet Catherine Putz. "Later this week, forces from both countries will participate in trilateral military exercises in neighboring Tajikistan. Both exercises were prompted by the Taliban's advances in northern Afghanistan in recent weeks, which triggered the flight of Afghan forces and civilians across the border into Tajikistan."

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"David and Goliath: Myanmar's Armed Resistance at the Crossroads"

Robert Bociaga gibt einen Überblick über den bewaffneten Widerstand der myanmarischen Bevölkerung gegen das Militär: "Since the coup was launched on February 1, the country has been witnessing attacks on civilians by the military on an unprecedented scale. (…) In response to that, People's Defense Forces (PDF) were formed in many areas to counter the junta forces. According to some estimates, hundreds of thousands of mostly young people have been receiving underground training in secret locations in the borderlands. (…) The PDF has its successes but pays a high price for it."

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"Britain to Keep 2 Warships Permanently in East Asia"

Großbritanniens Verteidigungsminister Ben Wallace habe angekündigt, zwei britische Kriegsschiffe künftig dauerhaft in Ostasien zu stationieren, bemerkt Steven Stashwick. "It is not clear what type of ships the Royal Navy will keep in the region or what the permanent deployment's basing arrangements will be, but will appear to include offshore patrol vessels (OPV) supported by bases in Australia and Singapore. (…) Britain has not had a permanent naval presence in East Asia for years and has not had a permanent base in the region since its naval base in Hong Kong, HMS Tamar, was closed when the former colony was turned over to the People's Republic of China in 1997."

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"Russia to Hold Military Drills Near Afghan Border in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan"

Russland plane gemeinsam mit Tadschikistan und Usbekistan Militärübungen in der Nähe der afghanischen Grenze abzuhalten, beobachtet Catherine Putz. "The flurry of activity comes in the wake of the Taliban's pressing offensive across the border from Central Asia. (…) Aleksandr Lapin, the commander of Russia's Central Military District, told reporters that drills with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will be held on Tajikistan's Harb-Maidon military field on August 5-10. According to RFE/RL [Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty], Lapin said, 'During the exercises, we will polish joint military efforts against illegal armed formations that intervene into the territory of an ally country.'"

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"The China-Pakistan Partnership Continues to Deepen"

Die militärischen und strategischen Beziehungen zwischen China und Pakistan würden künftig noch enger werden, prognostiziert Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan. "Pakistan has been an important partner to China for decades. Its importance may have increased further for a number of reasons. One, China has antagonized a large number of countries with its wolf warrior diplomacy, from its neighborhood in the Indo-Pacific to Europe. This raises the importance of the few real partners it has, like Pakistan. (…) In addition, with the U.S. exiting the theater, China might want to have greater access to Central Asia through Afghanistan. All of this will be possible only through the good offices of Islamabad and the links that the Pakistani establishment has with the Taliban."

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"Hypersonic Missiles: A New Arms Race"

Das Streben von China, Russland und den USA nach Hyperschallwaffentechnologien bereite den Boden für ein neues Wettrüsten, warnt Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan. "The Biden administration is making a big push for hypersonic-related research funding in the fiscal year 2022 budget. (…) China and Russia have been pursuing the development of hypersonic capabilities for a decade now. (…) The U.S., Russian, and Chinese pursuit of these technologies will have cascading effects. It is unlikely that such developments will end with the three. Other countries like India and Australia are also pursuing hypersonic technologies, either on their own or in partnerships."

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"The EU's Stake in the Taiwan Strait Issue"

Das G7-Gipfel-Kommuniqué hebe Frieden und Stabilität in der Taiwanstraße als gemeinsame Priorität der unterzeichnenden Staaten hervor, analysiert Earl Wang. "The inclusion of the Taiwan Strait issue as a shared agenda item - under the 'Global Responsibility and International Action' heading - was not an easy decision among the seven capitals. (…) It was not until the morning of the last day of the summit that French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed on including the Taiwan Strait issue in the communiqué. It is understandable and fair that the EU and the United States do not always share the same threat perception, security interests, and preferred approach when it comes to China. However, peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait undoubtedly fits the EU's values and interests."

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"What the G-7 Summit in Cornwall Means for Asia"

Duncan Bartlett erörtert die Implikationen des G7-Gipfels für Asien: "There was a great deal in the summit's discussions and in its final communique that was pertinent to Asia. Particularly significant was the announcement of a global infrastructure plan, to give developing countries an alternative to doing business with China through its Belt and Road Initiative. The G-7 will offer financing for infrastructure, from railways to wind farms."

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"Could Russia and Japan Finally Find Peace in the Pacific?"

Gabriel Gavin beleuchtet, wie der Streit um die Inseln des Kurilen-Archipels Japan und Russland seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg davon abhalte, einen Friedensvertrag zu unterzeichnen: "The Yalta Agreement, penned by the Allies months before the Red Army set off, had promised the archipelago to Moscow, in exchange for entering the war in the Pacific against the Axis power. Since then, though, Japan has sought to overturn the terms of the deal, insisting that the four southernmost islands, which it refers to as its 'Northern Territories,' were not actually covered by WWII-era treaties. (…) For right-wing activists and commentators in Japan, the status of the islands is a question of national pride, and a sign that it has not fully recovered all that it lost in the wake of the war. (…) In Moscow, by contrast, the debate comes down to national security, given the islands lie in the strategic East Pacific, where its navy is increasingly engaged in standoffs with warships belonging to the United States and its allies."

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"Why Vietnam Needs to Adopt a Biological Defense Strategy"

COVID-19 habe Vietnams unzureichende Abwehrfähigkeit gegen biologische Bedrohungen offenbart, erläutert Phuong Pham. "(…) Vietnam should establish a national strategy on biological defense in order to help it counter biological threats more effectively, given the current inadequacy of the country's biological defense capabilities. (…) At the very least, a national biodefense strategy would establish a clear vision on how to deal with biological threats - something that Vietnam has lacked thus far."

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"Will Russia Put China's Arctic Ambitions on Ice?"

Trotz guter bilateraler Beziehungen verhalte sich Russland hinsichtlich Chinas Bemühungen, eine wichtige Rolle in der Arktis zu übernehmen, eher zurückhaltend, bemerkt Elizabeth Wishnick. "While Russia and China cooperate in shipping along the Northern Sea Route (Chinese ships, like others, must pay a fee and have a Russian icebreaker escort) some Russian experts claim that their government does not accept the 'Polar Silk Road' moniker, which subsumes the Northern Sea Route, intrinsic to Russia's Arctic identity, into a China-sponsored initiative, though Russia has not publicly criticized it. (…) So far Russia has shown a preference for diversifying its partners in the Arctic and using its chairmanship role to advance domestic interests, a course that potentially sets it on a collision course with China's efforts to assert its broader regional agenda."

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"Facebook Publishes New Influence Operations Report"

Abhijnan Rej gibt einen Überblick über die Ergebnisse des jüngst von Facebook veröffentlichten Berichts "The State of Influence Operations 2017-2020": "Covering a span of three years, from 2017 to the middle of this year, Facebook's 'The State of Influence Operations 2017-2020' report identifies the top five sources of global 'coordinated inauthentic behavior' (CIB) campaigns. It draws on over 150 CIB operations that Facebook has identified, reported, and disrupted. The social media behemoth defines CIBs as a subset of influence operations, involving state or non-state actors, that use coordinated networks of Facebook pages, accounts and groups to deceive the platform as well as its users about their intent and identity, crucially relying on fake accounts. In terms of the geographical sources of CIB networks, Russia ranks first in the new report, with Facebook having identified 27 CIB networks emanating from that country, with Iran (23 networks) at number two and Myanmar ranking third (with nine CIB networks)."

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"Managing the Military Problem of Space: The Case of China, Part 1"

Robert Farley beleuchtet Chinas militärisches Weltraumprogramm: "Apart from the United States, the People's Republic of China has the most advanced space capabilities of any country in the Indo-Pacific. (…) The foundations of China's interest in the military applications of space came in large part out of concern over U.S. missile defense capabilities. (…) Consequently, China's space doctrine has become similar to that of the United States; access to space enables military operations in other domains, while denying space to the enemy undercuts its ability to conduct coherent military ops."

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"Duterte Threatens 'All-Out Offensive' After More Violence in Mindanao"

Jüngste gewaltsame Zusammenstöße zwischen der philippinischen Armee und der Rebellengruppe "Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters" (BIFF) könnten den fragilen Frieden auf den Philippinen gefährden, warnt Nick Aspinwall. "The Philippines signed a peace agreement in 2014 with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in which that group laid down its arms in exchange for the establishment of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), which was formalized in early 2019. The BIFF, however, broke away from the MILF and has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS). (…) The BIFF has escalated its attacks on the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) in recent months, including the May 16 firefight that left two BIFF rebels dead. In March, clashes between the BIFF and the AFP led to the displacement of more than 66,000 people in Maguindanao."

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"Colombia: China's New Amigo?"

David Castrillon skizziert die bilateralen Beziehungen zwischen China und Kolumbien: "While the agenda for a likely 2021 state visit remains uncertain, the fact that the two countries have quickly grown fonder of each other is evident. Will Colombia give the U.S. the cold shoulder? That's unlikely, at least not intentionally. As Duque set out in a November speech, it is his administration's intention to deepen economic ties with China while maintaining Colombia's longstanding, value-based partnership with the United States. And this makes sense: China is better positioned today, both in terms of capacities and interest, to participate in the reactivation of the post-COVID Colombian economy than a U.S. that is just being put in order by the new Biden administration. (…) In the medium-term, it may not even be a decision over which the national government has a say, with China-Colombia ties increasingly being developed by actors outside of the presidential palace like local governments, companies, universities, and private citizens. Friends by happenstance, not by choice, but friends nevertheless."

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