US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

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11.03.2020

"China Hawks Are Calling the Coronavirus a 'Wake-Up Call'"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-crisis-china-trump-trade-economy/607747/

"China-Falken" in Washington betrachten die Corona-Pandemie Uri Friedman zufolge als endgültigen Beweis für ihre These, dass die große Abhängigkeit der USA von globalisierten Lieferketten ein "systemisches Risiko" darstellt. "As Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro and Senator Marco Rubio both told me, the crisis is an alarming 'wake-up call' about American vulnerabilities in a globalized world — one that the United States has for decades played a leading role in sustaining. (…) Navarro, the director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, told me that the coronavirus epidemic illustrates how the United States is 'dependent on foreign sources' for crucial medicines and medical supplies. Nearly all surgical and most respirator masks used in the U.S., for instance, are manufactured in other countries such as China and Mexico, resulting in shortages during the current crisis. But the challenges extend beyond medical supplies central to the coronavirus outbreak. Yanzhong Huang, a global-health expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that China is the largest exporter of medical devices to the United States, and that about 80 percent of the active pharmaceutical ingredients in American drugs come from China and India. (…) Navarro proposed that the U.S. government should encourage high-tech domestic manufacturing of medical supplies and ensure that everything it procures across federal agencies 'is domestically sourced.' This 'buying American' should include 'not just the finished products, like the pills and face masks and ventilators,' but also 'the critical components, precursor chemicals, and advanced pharmaceutical ingredients we need for production,' he said."

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06.03.2020

"Why Jihadists Loved America in the 1980s"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/jihad-abdallah-azzam-america-osama-bin-laden/607498/

Thomas Hegghammer wirft einen Blick zurück in die 1980er Jahre und erklärt, warum Dschihadisten aus dem Nahen Osten und Asien in den USA in dieser Zeit bei der Anwerbung neuer Anhänger weitgehend freie Hand gehabt hätten. "My new biography of [Abdallah Azzam of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood] shows that in the 1980s, radical Islamists exploited U.S. territory to an extent not previously recognized. In fact, for more than a decade, America was among the most hospitable jihadist-recruitment grounds in the world. (…) But how was it even possible that America had become a cherished recruitment ground for Azzam? The main reason was that America offered unparalleled political freedoms. Azzam and his lieutenants were seen as religious activists, something for which there was high tolerance in the United States. Meanwhile, the U.S. government did not consider them a security threat, because at that time, Sunni Islamists had virtually never perpetrated terrorist attacks in the West."

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05.03.2020

"The Coronavirus Is More Than Just a Health Crisis"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-covid19-politics-crisis-boris-johns
on-britain/607456/

Tom McTague schreibt in seinem Bericht aus London, dass die Coronavirus-Epidemie nicht nur medizinische, sondern auch wichtige politische Fragen aufwerfe. "An outbreak like the coronavirus reveals the priorities and values of a society, and how long it can cope without the freedoms it’s accustomed to. Here in London, the government acknowledges that its own power is limited, and that it may have only a small window to impose curbs on a population unused to even basic state restrictions. (…) The dilemma for Johnson is simple: How much time, money, and social upheaval should be spent saving lives from COVID-19? He will have to make this decision in the dark, weighing reasonable expectations of what will happen if he does or does not act in certain ways. He will be presented with scenarios that consider crime rates, drops in consumer spending, job cuts, tax losses, and strains on a health system dealing with other illnesses — as well as deaths from COVID-19."

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03.03.2020

"The Coronavirus Is No 1918 Pandemic""

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/were-not-facing-second-spanish-flu/607354/

In der Debatte über den Coronavirus werden häufig Vergleiche mit der "Spanischen Grippe" von 1918 angestellt, an der bis 1920 weltweit viele Millionen Menschen starben. Jeremy Brown, Autor des Buches "Influenza: The Hundred Year Hunt to Cure the Deadliest Disease in History", erläutert, warum die Situation heute eine völlig andere sei. "That pandemic remains a benchmark, and many commentators have rushed to compare it to the current coronavirus outbreak. What’s most striking about these comparisons, though, is not the similarities between the two episodes, but the distance that medicine has traveled in the intervening century. Whatever happens next, it won’t be a second 1918. (…) The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 occurred in the pre-antibiotic era. Although antibiotics do not treat viruses, they do treat the secondary bacterial infections that sometimes follow. These secondary infections cause severe pneumonia, and were likely responsible for most of the deaths in 1918. (…) If the terrible influenza pandemic of 1918 and the current coronavirus outbreak share one feature, it is this: People are terribly afraid. (…) Chicago’s health commissioner made this clear. 'It is our duty,' he said, “to keep the people from fear. Worry kills more people than the epidemic. For my part, let them wear a rabbit’s foot on a gold watch chain if they want it, and if it will help them to get rid of the physiological action of fear.'"

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17.02.2020

"America Is Alone in Its Cold War With China"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/02/us-china-allies-competition/606637/

Die USA hätten bei der Suche nach internationalen Verbündeten für ihre Konfrontation mit China bisher nur begrenzten Erfolg gehabt, stellt Uri Friedman fest. "Despite the global network of alliances Washington has built up, it’s been unable to convince those allies to hop aboard the 'great-power-competition' express and leave China behind. U.S. officials are learning just how challenging it is to persuade friendly nations that America is a reliable partner capable of providing them with viable alternatives to what China has on offer — that the rewards of drawing closer to Washington outweigh the risks of alienating Beijing. That’s in part because of the mixed messages from the American president himself: He’s notoriously iffy about his commitment to allies (…). In not following America’s lead, these allies have set precedents for how countries caught between the superpowers could act in the future. They have also signaled that international relations today are too intertwined, and Chinese power too magnetic, for them to enlist in a U.S.-led coalition and usher in a Cold War–style bifurcated world. If the United States is intent on reconstructing that world, it will likely find itself largely isolated."

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11.02.2020

"The Sanders Doctrine"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/02/bernie-sanders-doctrine-america-military-foreign-pol
icy/606364/

Uri Friedman hat sich ausführlich mit der außenpolitischen Plattform des aussichtsreichen demokratischen Präsidentschaftskandidaten Bernie Sanders beschäftigt. Dabei erkennt er Parallelen zum Amtsinhaber Donald Trump. "'Sanders will represent, like Trump, maybe in a more civilized way, a more sophisticated way, a more predictable way, the U.S. partially withdrawing from world affairs,' Gérard Araud, the former French ambassador to the United States, told me. Many European officials consider Sanders 'a left-wing isolationist,' Araud explained. They’re as 'terrified' by the prospect of his presidency as of a second Trump term, because it would sow doubts about America’s continued commitment to NATO and sustaining the U.S.-led international system. (…) That questioning, in truth, started well before Trump. Araud recalled that when the Europeans were pressing the Obama administration to intervene in Libya back in 2011, he received a call from Susan Rice when they were representing France and the United States, respectively, at the United Nations. 'You are not going to bring us into your shitty war,' he remembers Rice telling him. But eventually, Obama caved. Trump and Sanders seem determined to not do the same."

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11.02.2020

"How Do You Unmake a Terrorist?"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-london-terrorism-deradicalization/60637
6/

Zwei Messerangriffe durch vorzeitig aus der Haft entlassene Terroristen haben in Großbritannien eine Debatte über das Deradikalisierungsprogramm ausgelöst, mit dem die Regierung extremistische Häftlinge ideologisch beeinflussen will. Helen Lewis erläutert die Hintergründe des Programms, das durchaus effektiv, aber nie perfekt sein könne. "Clearly, deradicalization can work — several academics currently working in the field are former extremists, and for more than a decade, one of Britain’s leading counter-extremism programs was run by a former al-Qaeda sympathizer who had traveled to Afghanistan. Was there any obvious difference between those who were successfully deradicalized and the others, I asked [Arthur Snell, the former head of the British government’s anti-extremist Prevent program at the Foreign Office]. 'A lot of them are very bright,' he said. They got interested in new ideas, learned new information — and their stark worldview began to crumble. Others, though, were unable to understand the moral choices they had made or the effects of their actions. 'Not every individual can be changed,' Ali said. 'Just like we can’t stop every terrorist attack … and that’s the conflict. We want to maintain that open society. There will always be individuals we can’t reach.' (…) But punishment alone doesn’t unmake terrorists. No one in Britain would argue that extremists should be given an apartment, much less a spouse, but they do need a new life purpose to replace a perceived feeling of an existential struggle. They also need all the things that the British prison system struggles to give any inmate: mental-health support, education, training, and a future."

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17.01.2020

"Donald Trump Stumbles Into a Foreign-Policy Triumph"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/donald-trump-qassem-soleimani-iran-escalation/6
05053/

US-Präsident Trump habe mit seinem außenpolitischen Auftreten fast zufällig dafür gesorgt, dass geopolitische Realitäten aufgedeckt und einige Annahmen über angeblich neue Gesetzmäßigkeiten der internationalen Politik gründlich widerlegt worden sind, schreibt Tom McTague. "A term has been coined to describe this notion: Ryan Evans of War on the Rocks calls them 'Trumportunities.' It is the idea that, whether by accident or design, Trump creates chances to solve long-running international problems that a conventional leader would not. His bellicose isolationist agenda, for instance, might already be forcing Europe to confront its geopolitical weakness; China, its need for a lasting economic settlement with the U.S.; and countries throughout the Middle East, the limits of their power. The president’s erratic behavior might be doing something else as well, something even more fundamental. Through a combination of instinct, temperament, and capriciousness, Trump may be reminding the world of the reality of international relations: Raw military and economic power still matter more than anything else — so long as those who hold them are prepared to use them."

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04.01.2020

"It Wasn’t the Law That Stopped Other Presidents From Killing Soleimani"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/01/why-kill-soleimani-now/604441/

Kathy Gilsinan weist darauf hin, dass die beiden Amtsvorgänger Donald Trumps ebenfalls die gezielte Tötung des iranischen Generals Soleimani erwogen hätten. Sowohl Bush als auch Obama hätten aus guten Gründen auf den Befehl verzichtet. "Elissa Slotkin, a Democratic representative and former CIA analyst focused on Shia militias, said in a statement that she’d seen friends and colleagues killed or hurt by Iranian weapons under Soleimani’s guidance when she served in Iraq. She said she was involved in discussions during both the Bush and Obama administrations about how to respond to his violence. Neither opted for assassination. 'What always kept both Democratic and Republican presidents from targeting Soleimani himself was the simple question: Was the strike worth the likely retaliation, and the potential to pull us into protracted conflict?' she said. 'The two administrations I worked for both determined that the ultimate ends didn’t justify the means. The Trump Administration has made a different calculation.'"

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03.01.2020

"Qassem Soleimani Haunted the Arab World"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/qassem-soleimani-death-missed/604396/

In vielen Ländern der arabischen Welt habe der Tod des gefürchteten iranischen Generals Soleimani "Begeisterung" ausgelöst, berichtet Kim Ghattas. "Antipathy toward Iran and its role in the politics of multiple Middle East countries had long been building, predating these latest protests. But the multi-front explosion of popular anger toward Tehran and its proxies, especially from within Shiite communities in Lebanon and Iraq, was perhaps the most complex challenge that Soleimani had faced so far. The recent protests, in fact, explain the relief many feel in Beirut and Baghdad, in Damascus and Sana’a — blaming Soleimani himself for what had befallen their country or community. (…) Soleimani was so central to almost every regional event in the past two decades that even people who hate him can’t believe he could die, a bit like people couldn’t believe that Saddam Hussein was really gone. What happens in his absence? What comes next: war? Chaos? Limited retaliation? Nothing? No one like Soleimani has been assassinated in recent history."

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01.01.2020

"The Embassy Attack Revealed Trump’s Weakness"

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/trump-put-himself-irans-mercy/604321/

Der mittlerweile beendete Sturm der US-Botschaft in Bagdad markiert nach Ansicht von Peter Beinart das Scheitern der Iran-Strategie des US-Präsidenten. Donald Trump habe sich durch seine Abkehr vom Verhandlungsprozess mit Teheran in eine Lage manövriert, in der er nur verlieren könne. "(…) absent a revolution that replaces the Islamic Republic with a more pliant regime, he’s at Iran’s mercy. Given the crushing sanctions America continues to impose, Iran has every incentive to make America bleed. Its proxy armies offer it numerous opportunities to do so. And every time it does, it offers Trump the unenviable choice of launching a potentially catastrophic third Middle Eastern war or being exposed as a paper tiger. When it comes to Iran, Trump has shifted Republican foreign policy away from war without shifting it toward diplomacy — the only stable alternative to war. So he’s caught in a kind of purgatory. The American embassy compound in Baghdad, now covered in pro-Iranian graffiti and strewn with broken glass, is the latest symbol of that purgatory. It probably won’t be the last."

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30.12.2019

"The Slow Death of Colombia’s Peace Movement"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/12/colombia-peace-farc/604078/

Juan Arredondo berichtet, dass seit dem Abschluss des Friedensabkommens zwischen der kolumbianischen Regierung und der Farc-Guerilla vor drei Jahren hunderte Aktivisten, Gewerkschafter und Dissidenten ermordet worden seien. "The return to violence has been blamed on several factors, but chief among them is a lack of political support for the peace process. Critics of President Iván Duque charge that, through sins of omission and commission, he has undermined the deal’s prospects for success, and failed to do enough to protect those speaking out. Duque’s right-wing Democratic Center party was a vociferous opponent of the peace deal, and Duque became president in 2018 having campaigned to modify (though not abrogate) the accord. More than a year into his term, fewer than a quarter of the agreement’s nearly 600 provisions have been fully implemented, according to an analysis by Notre Dame University’s Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies."

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19.12.2019

"Inside the Collapse of Trump’s Korea Policy"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/12/donald-trump-kim-jong-un-north-korea-diplomacy-denuc
learization/603748/

Die Zweifel an den Erfolgsaussichten der amerikanischen Nordkorea-Diplomatie haben in den vergangenen Wochen weiter zugenommen. Uri Friedman erklärt in seiner Bestandsaufnahme, warum der Versuch von US-Präsident Trump, Nordkoreas Atomprogramm zu stoppen, vor dem Scheitern stehe. "The story of how Trump’s North Korea policy collapsed is in part one of Pyongyang’s intransigence, obfuscation, and bad faith in talks about its nuclear program, as well as one in which U.S. and North Korean officials misread one another and at times placed too much stock in the rosy messages of the South Korean government, a key intermediary. But it’s also a tale about the American president undercutting his own success. Trump prioritized the North Korean threat, amassed unmatched leverage against Pyongyang, and boldly shook up America’s approach to its decades-old adversary. Yet he squandered many of these gains during his first summit with Kim, in Singapore, and set several precedents there that have hobbled nuclear talks ever since. He shifted the paradigm with North Korea in style but not in substance. While transforming the role of the president in negotiations with North Korea, he did not bring the same inventiveness to the negotiations themselves."

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04.12.2019

"The Spiritual Disunity of the West"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/12/nato-summit-west-torn/602998/

Das Nato-Treffen in London hat nach Ansicht von Tom McTague bestätigt, welch schweren Stand die Nato als Verkörperung der Idee geteilter westlicher Werte mittlerweile habe. "What can possibly be said to connect Viktor Orbán to Justin Trudeau, Donald Trump to Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson to Angela Merkel? In just the past two days, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has questioned Turkey’s commitment to the alliance’s principle of collective defense, Macron has attacked Turkey’s intervention in Syria, and Trump has suggested that the U.S. will impose tariffs on NATO allies. Here is a spiritual union that no longer appears spiritually connected, its members unable to agree on who they are, what they stand for, or even their principal enemy. Does the West, as Bevin described it, still even exist?"

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03.12.2019

"Britain’s Secret War With Russia"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/12/britain-russia-nato-disinformation/602836/

Seit der Vergiftung des russischen Ex-Spions Sergej Skripal und seiner Tochter in Salisbury befinde sich Großbritannien in einem verdeckten "Geheimkrieg" gegen Russland, berichtet Tom McTague. "(…) Russia and Britain went toe-to-toe in an international intelligence and PR battle, one in which each landed blows, exposing fissures in their respective systems and societies. Yet, as NATO leaders meet in London this week to discuss the future of the military alliance 70 years after its founding, other lessons emerge, with implications for the wider contest between Russia and the West, which are vying for influence, respect, security, and raw geopolitical power. (…) Unlike a conventional battle, though in keeping with much of modern conflict, there are no obvious measures to determine who won and who lost. The months-long information war that Russia fought with Britain was one in which mistakes were difficult to judge and success hard to immediately quantify. This is a story about disinformation and spycraft. It is also a story that again and again returns to the tiny Swiss town of Spiez."

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29.11.2019

"How North Korea Soured on Donald Trump"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/11/chances-of-north-korea-nuclear-talks-deal-fading/602
734/

Uri Friedman macht die kompromisslose Strategie des US-Präsidenten für den ausbleibenden Erfolg der Verhandlungen mit Nordkorea verantwortlich. "The Kim regime 'now considers summits without payment for cooperation as empty diplomacy that merely helps ... Trump raise domestic political support,' Leif-Eric Easley, a Korea expert at Ewha Womans University, in Seoul, told me. It’s ironically the mirror-image argument to what Trump’s critics contended when he became the first American president to meet with North Korea’s dictator: that it would grant Kim valuable legitimacy while leaving the United States with nothing of substance to show for it. (…) The main holdup in negotiations has been the Trump administration’s unwillingness to ease sanctions on North Korea, even if only partially and in a reversible manner, until North Korea commits to complete denuclearization, so 'if Trump makes a decision to loosen some sanctions I think we could see this roll into a deal pretty quickly,' Victor Cha, a Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and onetime candidate to be Trump’s ambassador to South Korea, told me. (…) As the North Korea scholar Robert Carlin recently wrote, 'If Pyongyang has decided it has a viable option to move to full and final development of its most fearsome weapons while the U.S. sinks into months of savage internal political warfare, then East Asia, in fact the entire Western Pacific, will in a flash become more dangerous than it has been at any time since World War II.'"

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21.11.2019

"Why Elizabeth Warren’s Foreign Policy Worries America’s Allies"

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/elizabeth-warrens-military-accounting-fiction/602338/

Thomas Wright von der Brookings Institution kritisiert den Vorschlag der demokratischen Präsidentschaftskandidatin Elizabeth Warren, den amerikanischen Militärhaushalt um 11% zu kürzen, um ein neues Krankenversicherungsmodell zu finanzieren. Das US-Militär wäre aufgrund der nötigen Einsparungen nicht mehr in der Lage, international wie bisher aufzutreten, so Wright. "Finding savings in the defense budget is possible, of course, but getting to 11 percent will require real cuts to capabilities and acceptance of greater risk in key theaters, including in the counterterrorism fight in the Middle East. The bulk of the defense budget is accounted for by personnel and long-term procurement decisions. Reducing the size of the force to rely more on new technologies may make strategic sense, but that’s not politically viable. Reducing research-and-development costs or the overseas presence may encounter less political resistance, but that’s bad strategy. (…) If a Democrat replaces Trump as president, they will inherit a highly volatile world that is on the cusp of abandoning the American-led post–World War II international order. Rivals and friends alike are asking the same question: Is 'America first' an aberration or a sign of things to come, whether from the right or the left? They are examining every tea leaf from Trump and the Democratic hopefuls. (…) Democrats would do well to keep this in mind. Making major announcements with implications for the structure of the force and America’s overseas presence without adequate preparation will have consequences. The next administration will not have a honeymoon period internationally. The campaigns must prepare accordingly."

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07.11.2019

"What Would It Take to Unify Korea? Germany Offers Lessons."

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/german-reunification-offers-lessons-korea/60129
7/

Die Wiedervereinigung Deutschlands sei 30 Jahre nach dem Mauerfall immer noch nicht abgeschlossen, stellt Melissa Chan fest. Für die koreanische Halbinsel, die auf der Suche nach Wegen zur eigenen Wiedervereinigung immer wieder nach Deutschland blicke, sei dies keine gute Nachricht. "Every expert and official I contacted believes that German-style reunification — essentially an absorption of North Korea on South Korea’s terms — is the only possible scenario to consider, and that’s only if events play out fairly peacefully. Seoul has flown German bureaucrats from that era over to pick their brains for insight. And if Germany is any indication, the process would take far longer, and cost far more, than anyone might imagine. (…) Koreans would have to shoulder a greater burden. In Germany in the early 1990s, people in the west made two to three times as much as their eastern counterparts. In 2017, South Korea’s per capita GDP was $29,743. That same year, North Korea’s was $1,214 — a 25-to-1 differential. It would take generations for North Koreans to catch up and enjoy the same prosperity as South Koreans. One estimate has Korean reunification costing $10 trillion, or almost seven times South Korea’s annual GDP. 'South Korea is deathly afraid of German-style unification,' says Andrei Lankov, the director of Korea Risk Group, a research firm."

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05.11.2019

"'It Can Happen to Anyone': How ISIS Radicalized My Son"

https://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/601279/isis-radicalization-son/

In der achtminütigen Kurzdokumentation "And It Was The Same With My Son" von Noemi Varga erzählt eine Mutter aus Großbritannien, wie sie die Radikalisierung ihres Sohnes, der später als IS-Anhänger in Syrien getötet wurde, miterlebt hat. "In Varga’s award-winning film, premiering on The Atlantic Selects today, Nicola recounts the harrowing story of her son’s radicalization by ISIS. Where another documentarian might have turned to talking-head interviews, Varga instead depicts Nicola’s emotional journey through poetic re-creations that emphasize her grief and isolation. 'I knew I didn’t want to make a traditional documentary,' Varga told me. 'It was more about creating an immersive experience where you can really empathize with her situation.' In her interviews with Nicola, Varga told me that she was surprised to learn how gradual the process of radicalization can be, and how widespread the issue is on a global scale."

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04.11.2019

"Nationalism Is a Form of Love, Not Hate"

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/nationalism-form-love-not-hate/601282/

Rich Lowry verteidigt den Nationalismus in diesem Auszug aus seinem neuen Buch "The Case for Nationalism: How It Made Us Powerful, United, and Free" gegen seine vielen Kritiker. "The Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, as well as the rise of nationalist governments in Central and Eastern Europe, have swept nationalism to the fore of the public debate, but have not necessarily led to greater understanding. Nationalism is still often assumed to be an inherently nefarious force. It is true that it can be abused for illiberal ends, but the basic impetus for it — for a self-governing people to occupy a distinct territory — is elemental. (…) nationalism isn’t just old, natural, deep-seated, and extremely difficult to suppress. It is also the foundation of a democratic political order. Regardless, anyone who believes that it can be easily repressed in favor of some other, supposedly more broad-minded loyalty is profoundly mistaken."

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04.11.2019

"Britain and Europe Are Destined to Be Rivals"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/britain-and-europe-are-destined-be-rivals-after
-brexit/601288/

Tom McTague hält es für unausweichlich, dass die EU und Großbritannien nach einem Brexit zumindest wirtschaftspolitisch zu ernsten Rivalen werden. In Europa habe dies u.a. Bundeskanzlerin Merkel früh erkannt. Es sei nicht ausgeschlossen, dass diese Rivalität auch die sicherheitspolitische Kooperation beeinflussen wird. "'With the departure of Great Britain, a potential competitor will of course emerge for us,' Merkel declared. 'That is to say, in addition to China and the United States of America, there will be Great Britain as well.' One does not need to have a view on who will win this competition — or even on whether creating a competition among European powers is a clever idea at all — to acknowledge that at one level, Merkel’s remarks are just the inescapable consequence of Brexit. (…) Could this economic competition spill over into other fields, such as security and defense? At a recent dinner party hosted by the London embassy of a major European power, attended by senior British government officials, diplomats, politicians, and journalists (including myself), the host ambassador was warned that he could not expect his country’s defense relationship with Britain to be left unchanged if Britain felt unfairly treated, economically, in the fallout from Brexit."

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27.10.2019

"Trump’s Defiant Message to Washington: My Approach to Alliances Just Worked"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/10/trump-approach-alliances-just-worked/600892/

Die erfolgreiche US-Operation gegen den IS-Anführer Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi werde von Präsident Trump als Bestätigung seiner außenpolitischen Strategie betrachtet, schreibt Uri Friedman. "In authorizing the Special Forces raid that killed the Islamic State’s founder and leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, his message was essentially: My transactional and tactical approach to alliances, and to limiting America’s military presence in the Middle East in particular and overseas more generally, just worked in spectacular fashion, fulfilling 'the top national-security priority of my administration.' Here was a vivid demonstration of his ability to reduce the United States’ role in the world and still carry out core national-security missions, a proof of his proposition that alliances can fray and fracture and exist in perpetual flux even as mutual interests — in this case opposition to ISIS — persist amid all the wreckage. (…) Recent days have brought signs that Trump’s moves have spurred other countries to increase their investments in a region in which their security is also at stake; the German defense minister, for instance, took the unusual step last week of calling for the creation of an international security zone in northern Syria, though the proposal is more aspirational than operational."

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23.10.2019

"The Ceasefire in Syria Worked (More or Less)"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/10/syria-turkey-us-russia-ceasefire-worked/600541/

Kathy Gilsinan stellt fest, dass der zwischen Washington und Ankara vereinbarte Waffenstillstand in Nordsyrien seinen Zweck erfüllt habe. "The U.S.-brokered semi-reprieve from the fighting was fundamentally a bargain between Turkey and the United States, in which the U.S. message was: Stop attacking the Syrian Kurds, who helped us beat ISIS; they’ll get away from a piece of your border; and we won’t come after your economy. (…) 'We never used a map,' said James Jeffrey, the Trump administration’s Syria and counter-ISIS envoy, in congressional testimony yesterday. 'This sounds like a sloppy way to do things; it actually worked.' The Turks hadn’t launched a new offensive; the commander of the SDF wrote to Vice President Mike Pence to say that his forces had left 'the relevant area of operations.' (…) Erdoğan may have received enough guarantees, from enough international backers, to maintain the cease-fire — or whatever it is — for now. He has managed to pull both Russia and the United States into effectively guaranteeing Turkish security along its border with Syria. He has, through three separate incursions into northern Syria since 2016, chopped up a stretch of contiguous Kurdish-held territory they had hoped to keep autonomous. That autonomy may ultimately have been the real threat to Erdoğan, argues Henri Barkey, a Turkey expert and the Cohen Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University."

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07.10.2019

"Trump’s Gift to ISIS"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/10/how-isis-returns/599581/

Mike Giglio warnt, dass der Rückzug der US-Truppen aus Nordsyrien eine dauerhafte Zerschlagung des "Islamischen Staates" verhindern könnte. Es sei Wunschdenken, zu erwarten, dass die Türkei den IS nach einer Invasion der Region effektiv bekämpfen würde. "For much of America’s war against the so-called ISIS caliphate, it was clear that the extremist proto-state that ISIS created across Syria and Iraq didn’t stand much chance of lasting. The militants had no way to counter the relentless U.S. air-strike campaign and faced a committed enemy in the U.S.-backed local soldiers who did the bulk of the ground fighting. (...) These local soldiers — the Kurds in Syria, the Iraqi military, and various other forces — have already suffered many thousands of casualties. Once the territorial caliphate was defeated, America could have focused on rebuilding them as well as the heavily bombed areas where they are now charged with keeping the peace. (...) 'The safe-zone theme is just dressed-up ethnic cleansing, when you get down to it,' Nicholas Heras, a specialist on Syria and ISIS at the Center for a New American Security, told me. 'This isn’t about ISIS for Turkey. They’ve made that very clear. This is about border security, and this is about their domestic political concerns related to the strain of a refugee population that many Turkish border regions don’t have the means to care for anymore.'"

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05.10.2019

"The U.S. Gives Military Aid to Corrupt Countries All the Time"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/10/military-aid-ukraine-trump/599500/

In der Debatte über ein Amtsenthebungsverfahren gegen US-Präsident Trump spielen zurückgehaltene Militärhilfen für die Ukraine wichtige Rolle. Donald Trump hat erklärt, dass die verbreitete Korruption in der Ukraine bei der Verzögerung der Unterstützung mitentscheidend gewesen sei. Kathy Gilsinan weist dagegen darauf hin, dass dieses Argument bei der Militärunterstützung für andere Länder offensichtlich keine Rolle spiele. "Ukraine does suffer from corruption, but it’s by no means the worst offender among the recipients of American largesse. The research group Security Assistance Monitor noted in a report last fall that some two-thirds of the countries receiving U.S. counterterrorism aid, or 24 of 36 countries examined, 'posed serious corruption risks.' (...) other countries’ experiences have demonstrated how aid itself can fuel corruption, even indirectly by freeing up more of the host government’s resources to distribute bribes. Or it can create perverse incentives. A weak government in a country getting massive amounts of military aid has reason to fear the development of a strong and professional military; see: Egypt’s Mohamed Morsi."

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24.09.2019

"Trump’s Transactional. And Estonia’s President Is Cool With It."

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/09/estonias-president-sees-value-trumps-transactionalis
m/598708/

Im Streit um die Verteidigungsausgaben der europäischen NATO-Länder habe US-Präsident Trump in der estländischen Präsidentin Kersti Kaljulaid einen unwahrscheinlichen Verbündeten gefunden, berichten Uri Friedman und Yara Bayoumy. "'Frankly speaking, I’m on the same page' as Trump regarding the 2-percent requirement, Kaljulaid — an earnest, 49-year-old socially liberal policy wonk who in style is Trump’s polar opposite — told us. 'Actually I’m quite sorry: Thinking back historically, when everybody else said it nicely, we didn’t react,' she continued. 'I mean, Barack Obama said so as well, and then we said, ‘It’s all fine and dandy but we don’t see it’s a necessity.’ It’s an irony that with this more transactional policy-making style [of Trump’s], we are now in Europe discussing 2 percent' and promising to devote $100 billion more to security by the end of 2020, which 'is not peanuts.' (...) Of course, the Estonian president has an incentive to remain in the good graces of the commander in chief of the most powerful military in NATO. But she traced her trust in Trump to commitments that she’s heard the president make privately and publicly, Vice President Mike Pence’s show of support during a visit to Estonia early in the administration, and a new U.S. pledge of military assistance and defense cooperation for Estonia."

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23.09.2019

"Against Washington's 'Great Power' Obsession"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/09/multilateralism-nearly-dead-s-terrible-news/598615/

Alex Pascal empfiehlt der US-Regierung anlässlich der aktuellen UN-Generalversammlung, sich daran zu erinnern, dass das Land nicht in direkter Konkurrenz zu anderen Großmächten, sondern durch die Schaffung und Unterstützung der bestehenden multilateralen Weltordnung zur Supermacht aufgestiegen sei. "These institutions and America’s multilateral leadership style were essential to winning the Cold War — the last great power competition. Why? Because Washington attracted countries and people to it by convincing them that America was out for more than itself. How? By (mostly) upholding its commitments, following global rules, defending friends and allies, finding common ground with foes, and practicing painstaking consultative diplomacy. This produced an unprecedented era of relative global peace and prosperity, but not without some costs and constraints. The United States had to follow the same rules as everyone else, even though it was the most powerful country. (...) Since 1945, the world has largely played America’s game, by America’s rules. But now Washington is deciding to play its rivals’ geopolitical game. Competitive zero-sum thinking comes naturally to Moscow and Beijing (and Trump), less so to Americans. (...) Trump may not have put the multilateral system on life support, but he is trying to pull the plug on it. As authoritarians rise, the climate changes, technology advances, and too many are left behind, Ben Franklin’s existential call to cooperate is as vital for the United States in the global arena of 2019 as it was for the American colonies in 1776."

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23.09.2019

"What Would Jeremy Corbyn Mean for Britain’s Foreign Policy?"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/09/jeremy-corbyn-britain-foreign-policy/598564/

Ein denkbares Resultat des andauernden Brexit-Streits im britischen Parlament ist die Wahl des Labour-Vorsitzenden Jeremy Corbyn zum neuen Premierminister. Yasmeen Serhan erläutert die möglichen außen- und sicherheitspolitischen Konsequenzen eines solchen Regierungswechsels. "Corbyn’s foreign-policy views are unlike those held by any other Labour leader, and are in many ways outside the mainstream of his own party, let alone the country. While any major economic plan would require Parliament’s consent, as prime minister, he would have significant sway over the country’s foreign agenda at a time when Britain’s global standing post-Brexit is still mired in doubt. (...) Much of what a Prime Minister Corbyn’s foreign policy might look like is based on views that he has supported throughout his time in Parliament. An early sponsor of the Stop the War Coalition, a British campaign group founded following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Corbyn was a vocal opponent of the U.S.-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as subsequent military interventions in Libya and Syria. He has voiced support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including a right of return for all Palestinian refugees. He has also expressed sympathy for the reunification of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland (a particularly controversial position for a would-be prime minister, because Northern Ireland remains a part of the United Kingdom)."

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