US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Project Syndicate


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"Global Terror and the Taliban's Return"

Brahma Chellaney skizziert die möglichen Folgen eines Abzugs des US-Militärs aus Afghanistan und prognostiziert: "If Biden withdraws all US troops before 2022, a terrorist takeover of Afghanistan on his watch is highly probable. The Taliban, in fact, will take Biden's statement as confirmation that they need only to bide their time for a few more months before laying siege to Kabul. (…) To avoid this outcome, the US must keep residual forces in Afghanistan to continue providing reassurance and air support to Afghan forces, as well as logistics aid to about 7,000 NATO and allied troops."

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"Building a Democratic High-Tech Alliance"

Die Uneinigkeit zwischen der EU und den Vereinigten Staaten mit Blick auf neue Technologien habe China und anderen Autokratien geholfen, digitale Entwicklungen selbst voranzutreiben und Normen in diesem Bereich aufzustellen, erklärt der ehemalige NATO-Generalsekretär Anders Fogh Rasmussen. "Leaders on both sides of the Atlantic must (…) build a technological alliance of democracies that will win the digital race and set the global rules in our mold. (…) This is the sort of positive agenda we need. But it will succeed only if transatlantic and Pacific partners start to realign themselves on some critical questions relating to emerging technologies, in particular concerning two commodities that many regard as the new oil: data and semiconductors. We need to develop a new democratic consensus on both."

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"A Concert of Powers for a Global Era"

Bestehende internationale Organisationen und Strukturen, die zur Lösung globaler Herausforderungen beitragen sollen, seien veraltet und der Aufgabe, weltweit Stabilität zu bewahren, nicht gewachsen, meinen Richard Haass und Charles Kupchan. "What is needed is a global concert of powers - an informal steering group of the world's most influential countries. (…) The members would be China, the European Union, India, Japan, Russia, and the US (…). Including these six heavyweights would give a global concert geopolitical clout while protecting it from becoming an unwieldy talking shop. (…) It would bring to the table the most influential states, regardless of their regime type, thereby separating ideological differences over domestic governance from matters requiring international cooperation. (…) It offers the best and most realistic way to advance great-power consensus (…)."

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"The Struggle for Technology Sovereignty in Europe"

Staaten müssten den Zugang zu Schlüsseltechnologien garantieren können, argumentiert Hermann Hauser. Anderenfalls bestehe die Gefahr, in Zwänge zu geraten, die genauso problematisch sein könnten wie militärische Abhängigkeiten. Um in Europa solch eine technologische Souveränität zu erreichen, empfiehlt er: "Beyond maintaining Arm's independence, the UK and the EU should together establish a €100 billion ($120 billion) Technology Sovereignty Fund to counter the $100 billion that the US is spending on its technology sovereignty and the even larger amounts China is mobilizing. Europe needs to build alternatives to Chinese technology manufacturing monopolies and to US-based IP, digital, and payment monopolies."

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"India's Smart Vaccine Diplomacy"

Während andere Länder versuchten, sich selbst COVID-19-Impfstoffe zu sichern, habe Indien bereits jetzt 33 Millionen Impfdosen an ärmere Länder verschickt, bemerkt Shashi Tharoor. In der Zukunft könnte sich dieses Vorgehen für Indien auszahlen. "India's vaccine diplomacy has been a boon to the country's aspirations to be recognized as a global power. (…) To be sure, it is uncertain whether promoting soft power through health-care exports significantly boosts a country's position in the global order. But if and when the permanent seats at the United Nations Security Council are ever rearranged, grateful governments will know who has done the most to save a world reeling from the onslaught of a deadly pathogen."

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"Why Europe's Digital Decade Matters"

Vizekommissionschefin Margrethe Vestager und Außenbeauftragter Josep Borrell erklären, warum die von der EU präsentierte Vision einer "digitalen Dekade" notwendig sei: "(…) (D)igitalization is now the key to building economic and societal resilience and exercising global influence. Our shared future is already taking shape in the digital domain. In a world marked by geopolitical competition for technological primacy, we must ensure that the EU's vision of digitalization - based on open societies, the rule of law, and fundamental freedoms - proves its worth over that of authoritarian systems that use digital technologies as tools for surveillance and repression. (…) Equally important, the digital decade is our last chance to follow through on the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals."

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"What Could Cause a US-China War?"

Wechselseitige Abhängigkeiten Chinas und der USA würden die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Krieges zwischen den beiden Staaten verringern, jedoch nicht vollständig beseitigen, meint Joseph Nye. "American hubris is always a danger, but so is exaggerated fear, which can lead to overreaction. Equally dangerous is rising Chinese nationalism, which, combined with a belief in American decline, leads China to take greater risks. Both sides must beware miscalculation. After all, more often than not, the greatest risk we face is our own capacity for error."

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"A Realist Reset for US-Saudi Relations"

In Folge des Geheimdienstberichts zum Mord an Jamal Khashoggi die Beziehungen zum saudischen Kronprinzen Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) einzustellen, sei für die Vereinigten Staaten nicht ratsam, kommentiert Richard Haass. "It should be a long time before the now publicly-exposed MBS is invited to the US, much less to visit the Oval Office. But refusing to deal with him is not the answer. Pragmatic, conditional relations with him could bring protection and freedom to many Saudis, make possible collaboration to impede Iran's nuclear ambitions, wind down the war in Yemen, and advance prospects for Israeli-Palestinian peace. None of this would bring Khashoggi back to life, but it would give added meaning to his death."

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"Why Mars Matters"

Für das langfristige Überleben der Menschheit sei es zwingend notwendig, technologisches Wissen zu nutzen, um Leben jenseits des Planeten Erde zu ermöglichen, argumentiert Christopher Mason. "We need humans to be able to live on Mars sustainably, responsibly, and safely not so that we can abandon Earth, but because the best way to ensure our species' survival is to make it possible to live elsewhere. Mars is not Plan B: it is Plan A, and always has been. We have an ethical duty to prevent our own species' extinction as well as that of all others on Earth. (…) Settling Mars is the necessary first rung on the ladder of long-term survival (not least because Venus is too hot)."

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"Build a Coalition of Democracies from the Ground Up"

Wie kann dem Niedergang von Demokratien entgegengewirkt werden? Javier Solana unterbreitet einen Vorschlag: "If anything has become clear of late, it is that democracy is not usually lost in the blink of an eye. It is often eroded little by little, almost unnoticed day to day. In order to rebuild it, a piecemeal approach - instead of grand global gestures - may prove most effective. By working patiently from the bottom up, and from the local to the international, we can still help democracy regain its luster."

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"Europe's Misadventure in Moscow"

Der EU fehle eine strategische Vision, argumentiert Ana Palacio - insbesondere gegenüber Russland. "To keep from being outplayed, Europe must get its act together. That means not only paying lip service to shared strategic goals, but also taking coordinated action to realize them. Perhaps Borrell's disastrous Moscow visit - together with US President Joe Biden's pledge that the days of 'rolling over in the face of Russia's aggressive actions' are over - will provide the impetus Europe needs."

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"What's in a War?"

Was braucht es, um einen Krieg zu gewinnen? Diese Frage stellt Harold James und versucht dabei aus der Geschichte Lehren für den von der US-Regierung erklärten Kampf gegen COVID-19 zu ziehen. "We need instruments for today that can also be used in different ways tomorrow. (…) There is a model for managing such temporal dilemmas. The post-WWII vision relied on a surge of economic dynamism that provided a bridge from war to peace. Without strong, shared growth, the burden of the war would have been unbearable. Only a transformative vision of a generally healthier society can help us overcome today's dismal reality."

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"Where Biden Should Be More Like Trump"

Die harte China-Politik Donald Trumps sei das wichtigste außenpolitische Erbe des früheren US-Präsidenten, schreibt der indische Strategieexperte Brahma Chellaney. Joe Biden sollte diesem Kurs folgen, wenn er die Erosion der globalen Führungsposition der USA bremsen wolle. "The Indo-Pacific region – a global economic hub and geopolitical hotspot – is central to an effective China strategy. (…) Biden seems to understand this. He has made clear his intention to build a united democratic front to counter China. But he is also at risk of undermining his own vision. For starters, Biden did not embrace the term 'Indo-Pacific' until after his electoral victory, and when he did, he replaced 'free and open' with 'secure and prosperous.' But, whereas 'free and open' automatically implies a rules-based, democracy-led order, 'secure and prosperous' leaves room for the inclusion of – and even leadership by – autocratic regimes. This ignores the crux of the Indo-Pacific challenge: a revisionist China is actively seeking to supplant the US as the region’s dominant power. Making matters worse, Biden has signaled a possible reset of ties with China. This would play right into China’s hands."

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"Europa muss eine globale Klimamacht werden"

Der Klimawandel sei Konfliktmultiplikator und von enormer geopolitischer Bedeutung, betonen Josep Borrell, Hoher Vertreter der EU für Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik, und Werner Hoyer, Präsident der Europäischen Investitionsbank. Die Europäische Union müsse daher ihr "volles diplomatisches und finanzielles Gewicht für den globalen Kampf gegen den Klimawandel" einsetzen. "Wir müssen unsere globalen Partner davon überzeugen, sich unseren Ambitionen anzuschließen, und wir müssen sie drängen - oder ihnen helfen -, die notwendigen Maßnahmen zu ergreifen. Zu diesem Zweck muss Europa (…) eine globale Macht in der Klimadiplomatie werden. Wir müssen unsere Klimabemühungen mit Realpolitik verbinden und den starken Zusammenhang zwischen Innovation und nachhaltiger Entwicklung anerkennen."

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"The Eternal Promise of the Arab Spring"

Trotz seines Scheiterns halte der Arabische Frühling vier wichtige Lehren für die politische Zukunft im Nahen Osten bereit, schreibt der frühere ägyptische Vizepräsident Mohamed ElBaradei. "First, an independent and active civil society is key. Without platforms to organize and advocate for change, calls for reform are easily stifled. Second, the need for social cohesion to fend off outside meddling cannot be overstated. Ideological reconciliation, specification of the relationship between religion and the state, and a readiness to compromise are indispensable foundations of a functioning democratic state. Third, the transition to democracy must be incremental. Just as no one jumps directly from kindergarten to university, the democratization process must be inclusive and carefully calibrated, with clear milestones. A starting point could be a common vision to improve human rights. The final lesson of the Arab Spring – tragically apparent in Libya and Syria – is that those in power must be persuaded that it is in their interest to come aboard. For any regime, gradual change is surely preferable to the prospect of an abrupt upheaval that threatens to replace those in power with a power vacuum."

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"How Will Biden Intervene?"

Joseph S. Nye Jr. schreibt, dass dem künftigen US-Präsidenten Joe Biden mehrere Wege offenstehen, um eine interventionistische Außenpolitik umzusetzen. "Broadly defined, intervention refers to actions that influence the domestic affairs of another sovereign state, and they can range from broadcasts, economic aid, and support for opposition parties to blockades, cyber attacks, drone strikes, and military invasion. Which ones will the US president-elect favor?"

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"Kyrgyzstan’s Latest Revolution"

In Kirgisistan sei eine Regierung bereits zum dritten Mal in zwanzig Jahren durch einen öffentlichen Aufstand zum Rücktritt gezwungen worden, schreibt Djoomart Otorbaev, ein früherer Premierminister des Landes. "The fact that Kyrgyzstan has been here before, with previous revolutions overthrowing governments in 2005 and 2010, makes it an outlier in Central Asia. Kyrgyzstan is so far the only country in the region where popular protests have ousted unpopular leaders, and where elections have been recognized as free and fair by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). But this third revolution in less than two decades puts Kyrgyzstan in real danger of sinking into an abyss of confusion and chaos. Kyrgyz citizens and neighboring states are concerned about the country’s instability."

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"Post-Pandemic Geopolitics"

Der Politikwissenschaftler Joseph S. Nye Jr. hält fünf Szenarien der Entwicklung der geopolitischen Ordnung nach der Corona-Pandemie für möglich. "There is no single future until it happens, and any effort to envision geopolitics in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic must include a range of possible futures. I suggest five plausible futures in 2030, but obviously others can be imagined. The end of the globalized liberal order. (…) A 1930s-like authoritarian challenge. (…) A China-dominated world order. (…) A green international agenda. (…) More of the same. (…) Each of the first four scenarios has about a one chance in ten of approximating the future in 2030. In other words, the chances are less than half that the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic will profoundly reshape geopolitics by 2030."

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"The UN’s Unhappy Birthday"

Die Corona-Pandemie hat nach Ansicht von Richard Haass verdeutlicht, warum die UNO in ihrem heutigen Zustand nicht in der Lage ist, die internationale Kooperation zur Lösung wichtiger Probleme zu organisieren. "The pandemic helps illustrate why. The UN Security Council, the most important component of the UN system, has made itself largely irrelevant. China has blocked any significant role for the UN’s executive body lest it be criticized for its initial mishandling of the outbreak and be held responsible for the consequences. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization deferred to China early on and has been further weakened by the United States’ decision to withdraw from it. The result is that the major powers get the UN they want, not the one the world needs. (…) Significant reform of the UN is not a realistic option, as potential changes, such as altering the composition of the Security Council to reflect the distribution of power in today’s world, would favor some countries and disadvantage others. Not surprisingly, those who stand to lose can and do block any such change. (…) The good news is that countries can create alternatives – such as the G7 and G20 – when the UN falls short."

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"Is Trump a Turning Point in World Politics?"

Der Politikwissenschaftler Joseph S. Nye Jr. meint, dass die Präsidentschaft Donald Trumps sich weltpolitisch aus historischer Perspektive als bedeutender Wendepunkt herausstellen könnte. "The current debate over Trump revives a longstanding question: Are major historical outcomes the product of political leaders’ choices, or are they largely the result of social and economic forces beyond anyone’s control? Sometimes, history seems like a rushing river whose course is shaped by precipitation and topography, and leaders are simply ants clinging to a log in the current. In my view, they are more like white-water rafters trying to steer and fend off rocks, occasionally overturning and sometimes succeeding in steering to a desired destination. (…) In other words, leaders and their skills matter – which also means that Trump cannot be easily dismissed. More important than his tweets are his weakening of institutions, alliances, and America’s soft power of attraction, which polls show has declined since 2016. Machiavellian and organizational skills are essential for successful US presidents, but so is emotional intelligence, which leads to self-awareness, self-control, and contextual insight, none of which is evident with Trump. His successor, whether in 2021 or 2025, will confront a changed world, partly because of Trump’s idiosyncratic personality and policies."

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"The EU Is Fueling Hunger in Africa"

Muhammed Magassy, Parlamentsabgeordneter in Gambia, wirft der EU vor, mit ihrer protektionistischen Handels- und Landwirtschaftspolitik afrikanische Produzenten unter dem Deckmantel des Freihandels an den Rand des Ruins zu treiben. Die resultierende Ernährungsunsicherheit könnte im Zusammenhang mit der Covid-19-Krise in Afrika zu einer Katastrophe führen. "The CAP subsidizes European farmers to the tune of €42 billion ($50 billion) annually, thereby giving them an unfair advantage in foreign markets, such as Africa. As a report released by the NGO network Coordination SUD last year showed, such subsidies, together with the abolition of market-regulation mechanisms (such as milk quotas), have strengthened EU producers’ ability to export agricultural products at low prices to markets in the Global South. Such policies distort markets, destabilize developing-country economies, and destroy livelihoods. For example, the CAP has devastated agricultural production in West Africa, particularly for wheat and milk powder. And the problem extends far beyond Africa: local industry and agriculture in Caribbean and Pacific countries have been undermined as well."

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"Belarus Is Putin’s to Lose"

Die Stimmung in der weißrussischen Bevölkerung gegenüber Russland könne leicht kippen, sollte Moskau weiterhin den delegitimierten Präsidenten Lukashenko unterstützen, meint Nina L. Khrushcheva. "(…) instead of cautiously supporting Lukashenko, Putin should have acted more strategically, like the West. Even if Lukashenko manages to cling to power, he has lost his legitimacy, because Belarusians will find it impossible to forget the beatings, torture, and even murder with which the regime suppressed the protests. They will also not forget the Kremlin’s silence. Each new day of protests works against Russia’s long-term interests in Belarus, and fuels distrust and hostility toward the Kremlin among those who never felt it before. Putin should openly express solidarity with Belarusian society, because the people’s goodwill has become more important than that of Lukashenko’s regime. Such a step now would reduce the West’s opportunity to pull Belarus away from the Kremlin’s orbit. If Belarusians get that chance, Putin will have only himself to blame."

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"The Other Putin on Europe’s Doorstep"

Mark Leonard vom European Council on Foreign Relations schreibt, dass der türkische Präsident Erdogan außenpolitisch immer mehr seinem russischen Amtskollegen Putin gleiche. Europa sollte sich seiner Ansicht nach nicht darauf verlassen, dass die Türkei dauerhaft Teil des westlichen Lagers bleibt. "Is Turkey the new Russia? That question is increasingly being asked in European capitals as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan adopts a more aggressive foreign policy. In addition to using migration to threaten and finagle the European Union, Erdoğan has also been deploying military power to expand Turkey’s sphere of influence across the wider region. (...) Turkey is not yet a new Russia, but it could become one if the situation is mishandled. For now, most Europeans still regard Turkey as a complicated partner rather than as a 'systemic rival.' But Europeans should heed the hard-won lessons of dealing with Russia over the past 15 years. The EU-Turkey relationship needs a new, mutually agreed set of principles, as well as clear red lines to deter further destabilization in the region."

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"After the Liberal International Order"

Der US-Präsidentschaftskandidat Joe Biden sollte nach einem möglichen Wahlsieg im November nach Ansicht von Joseph S. Nye Jr. gar nicht erst versuchen, die liberale Weltordnung in ihrer gewohnten Form wiederherzustellen. Biden sollte sich stattdessen die Schaffung einer neuen internationalen Ordnung zum Ziel setzen. "A realistic goal for a Biden administration should be to establish rules-based international institutions with different membership for different issues. (…) If Biden is elected, the question he will face is not whether to restore the liberal international order. It is whether the US can work with an inner core of allies to promote democracy and human rights while cooperating with a broader set of states to manage the rules-based international institutions needed to face transnational threats such as climate change, pandemics, cyber-attacks, terrorism, and economic instability."

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"The Shape of Asia’s New Cold War"

Chinas Abkehr vom "Ein Land, zwei Systeme"-Prinzip in Hongkong scheint beschlossene Sache zu sein, so der südkoreanische Politiker Yoon Young-kwan. Pekings Vorgehen in der ehemaligen Kronkolonie sei zugleich eine neue "Salve" im Kalten Krieg in Asien. "To understand the nature of the coming conflict, Asian leaders – along with the rest of the world – should focus on three different but interrelated domains of the Sino-American rivalry: politico-military, economic, and ideological. At the politico-military level, the key question is whether China will seek to expel the US from Asia, thereby becoming the region’s unchallenged hegemon. Short of that, China will try to weaken US security commitments in South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. (…) The second area of concern is economic. Any confrontation at the politico-military level is bound to accelerate a decoupling process, transforming the region’s positive-sum economy into a negative-sum one. (…) While the politico-military dimension is the new cold war’s determining factor, and economics the dependent factor, the ideological confrontation will play a reinforcing role. Again, the key question is how far China will go in promoting its model of 'authoritarian capitalism' as a 'superior' alternative to liberal democracy. (…) It remains to be seen precisely how the three dimensions of the conflict will interact. Asia’s leaders will need to be prudent, recognize that the situation is fluid, and plan for different scenarios. And it certainly wouldn’t hurt the US or China to show a bit more humility."

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"The End of Europe’s Chinese Dream"

Die COVID-19-Krise habe verdeutlicht, dass Europa von China in Bezug auf Handel und Investitionen in gefährlicher Weise abhängig geworden sei, schreibt Mark Leonard vom European Council on Foreign Relations. Im strategischen Denken der Europäer gebe es derzeit einen Paradigmenwechsel. "(…) clearly, Europe has abandoned its previous ambition for a more closely integrated bilateral economic relationship with China. In the past, when Europeans sought trade, economic-, and foreign-policy reforms vis-à-vis China, their hope was always to increase contact with the country while making the relationship fairer and more reciprocal. The basic goal was to expand bilateral trade and pry open the Chinese market for European investments. (…) In a report published earlier this month, Andrew Small of the European Council on Foreign Relations argues that the EU’s engagement with China will henceforth have a new purpose: to structure the Sino-European relationship in a way that reduces Europe’s dependence on Chinese trade and investment. The new consensus is that Europeans should be more insulated from the whims of unreliable or overbearing foreign governments, whether in Beijing or Washington, DC."

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"The End of the US-China Relationship"

Stephen S. Roach bezweifelt, dass sich das Verhältnis der USA zu China von der Coronakrise erholen wird. "A nationalistic American public is fed up with China. According to a new poll by the Pew Research Center, 66% of US citizens now view China in an unfavorable light – six points worse than last summer and the highest negative reading since Pew introduced this question some 15 years ago. While this shift was more evident for Republicans, those older than 50, and college graduates, unfavorable sentiment among Democrats, younger cohorts, and the less educated also hit record highs. An equally nationalistic Chinese public is also irate at the United States. That is not just because President Donald Trump insisted on dubbing a global pandemic the 'Chinese virus.' It is also because whispers turned into shouts linking the outbreak of COVID-19 to alleged suspicious activities at the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory. (…) Can the broken US-China relationship be salvaged? Ironically, COVID-19 offers an outside chance. Both countries’ leaders would need to end the blame game and begin restoring trust. To do so, they would need to come clean on what really happened in the early days of the pandemic – December for China, and January and February for the US."

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"Andrew Sheng Says More…"

Andrew Sheng vom Asia Global Institute der University of Hong Kong erläutert in diesem Interview, welche systemischen Herausforderungen die Corona-Pandemie für die Welt bereithält. Er hält es für falsch, in der Debatte über angemessene Krisenstrategien den Fokus auf vertraute Dichotomien zu richten und z.B. Markt und Staat bzw. Kapitalismus und Sozialismus gegenüberzustellen. Die Pandemie sei die Folge globaler Phänomene wie dem Klimawandel und der rasanten Zunahme der Weltbevölkerung, die neue zoonotische Infektionskrankheiten hervorriefen. "The real existential enemy has always been climate change, caused by excessive human consumption, in turn enabled by unlimited debt creation. If every developing-country citizen consumes like every Westerner, there will be no natural resources left and the planet will become inhospitable to human life. The American Dream of maximum freedom to consume cannot be for everyone; it can’t even be for Americans anymore. If the COVID-19 crisis doesn’t wake up everyone to this reality, nothing will."

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"COVID-19 Is an Opportunity for Europe"

Die EU könnte die Corona-Krise nutzen, um ein effektives europäisches Krisenmanagement auf die Beine zu stellen und erste Schritte zu einer koordinierten Fiskalpolitik umzusetzen, schreibt Lucrezia Reichlin. "The COVID-19 pandemic thus represents an opportunity for the EU to create a powerful crisis-management mechanism, which pools member states’ resources and channels them toward a coordinated fiscal policy. The idea of such an 'insurance fund' is not new: several economists championed the idea after the last crisis, when discussion of governance reform was in full swing. The EU has tended to make the most progress in bad times. And, as the millions of people currently on lockdown in Italy can attest, the COVID-19 outbreak is a very bad time. Now is the moment for the EU to take swift coordinated action and capitalize on the momentum to build the institutions it needs to facilitate even more effective action next time."

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"What EU 'Geopolitical' Power Will Cost"

Die neue EU-Kommissionspräsidentin Ursula von der Leyen will die EU als geopolitischen Akteur aufstellen, der auf Augenhöhe mit den USA und China agieren kann. Daniel Gros beurteilt diesen Plan mit einiger Skepsis. "Because the EU lacks an army or a central secret service, it must use economic policies to achieve its geopolitical aims. But the way Europe’s policy toolkit works in practice suggests that it is not well suited for exercising power abroad. The EU’s most important policy tool is trade, which is one of the few areas where the bloc acts as one. The EU has traditionally run its trade policy along conventional commercial lines, with the goal of maximizing market access for European exporters and protecting certain domestic sectors (particularly agriculture). Could this policy be tweaked for geopolitical purposes? A closer look at concrete examples suggests not. (…) bending commercial principles for geopolitical aims simply is not compatible with a rules-based multilateral trading system, not to mention the WTO’s principle of 'non-discrimination.' In fact, subordinating trade policy to a broader geopolitical agenda would require the EU to disregard the very principles that it has repeatedly pledged to uphold and defend."

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