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25.01.2021

"Delusions of Dominance"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-01-25/delusions-dominance

US-Präsident Biden sollte Stephen Wertheim zufolge besser darauf verzichten, die globale Vormachtstellung der USA wiederherstellen zu wollen. "Biden (…) is inheriting a long-standing U.S. grand strategy that is systemically broken and that no tonal adjustment or policy nuance can fix. For three decades, successive presidents — Trump included — continually expanded U.S. wars, forward deployments, and defense commitments in the pursuit of armed dominance across the globe. The price of primacy (…) has been severe. By seeking global dominance rather than just its own defense, the United States has acquired a world of antagonists. These antagonists have in turn further increased the costs and dangers of dominance. As a result, U.S. foreign policy has failed in its most essential purpose: it has made the American people less safe where they live."

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20.01.2021

"The Last Chance for American Internationalism"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-01-20/last-chance-american-internationalism

Mit Joe Biden habe der Amerikanische Internationalismus eine letzte Chance bekommen, schreibt Hal Brands. "The incoming Biden administration now faces a daunting task. U.S. allies may not come rushing back with open arms; the new president cannot simply declare that the United States has returned. Rather, Biden must update American internationalism for a new era of geopolitical and ideological rivalry and restore, domestically and globally, the credibility of a tradition that has been badly damaged. If he fails, history may look upon his presidency as the last gasp, rather than the second wind, of American internationalism."

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11.01.2021

"Present at the Destruction"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-01-11/present-destruction

Mit dem von ihm provozierten Sturm auf das US-Kapitol habe US-Präsident Trump die Entstehung einer "postamerikanischen Welt" noch einmal beschleunigt, meint Richard Haass. "What took place last week was a distinctly American failure, but the consequences go far beyond American shores. A post-American world, one no longer defined by U.S. primacy, is coming sooner than generally expected — less because of the inevitable rise of others than because of what the United States has done to itself. (…) The images reinforced the sense among fellow democracies that something is seriously wrong in and with the United States. (…) As a result, allies have little choice but to question their decision to entrust their security to the United States. (…) The violence at the Capitol will in particular weaken the United States’ ability to advocate for democracy and the rule of law: imagine the shouts of hypocrisy the next time Washington lectures or sanctions another government for its behavior."

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29.12.2020

"Vaccine Nationalism Will Prolong the Pandemic"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2020-12-29/vaccine-nationalism-will-prolong-pandemic

Thomas J. Bollyky und Chad P. Bown warnen, dass der "Impfstoff-Nationalismus" die Corona-Pandemie verlängern und anhaltende internationale Folgen haben könnte. "No one expects governments with early access to forgo vaccinating vulnerable members of their populations first. These include frontline health-care workers, residents and staff of long-term care facilities, and essential workers. But the current signs suggest that wealthy nations will seek to vaccinate their entire populations, even low-risk individuals, before sharing their vaccine supplies with others. (…) If competition continues to trump cooperation, many nations, including some wealthy ones, will be left waiting months or longer for proven vaccines. In the interim, health-care workers and people at high risk in those countries will go unprotected. Desperate governments may turn to unproven vaccines, putting their citizens at further risk. The legacy of resentment against vaccine-hoarding nations will be intense, imperiling the future international cooperation needed to prevent the next pandemic."

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16.12.2020

"Drones Are Destabilizing Global Politics"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2020-12-16/drones-are-destabilizing-global-politics

Bewaffnete Kampfdrohnen stellen sich nach Ansicht von Jason Lyal auf internationaler Ebene immer mehr als destabilisierender Faktor heraus. "The world has entered an era of drone wars. In four major interstate wars in the last five years — those in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria, and Ukraine — armed drones played a dominant, perhaps decisive, role. (…) Cheap, survivable drones, combined with armor and artillery, offer the militaries that field them real advantages. The four recent conflicts in which drones have appeared show that even modest vehicles can help win military victories and reshape geopolitics. And as drones become part of the arsenals of more countries — surging from eight in 2015 to 20 today — new actors are poised to seize the opportunity they offer to grab territory or ignite previously frozen conflicts. Governments and analysts need to rethink the role these weapons may play in actually increasing the risk of interstate violence."

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15.12.2020

"Sleepwalking Toward the Nuclear Precipice"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-12-15/sleepwalking-toward-nuclear-precipice

Ernest J. Moniz und Sam Nunn fürchten, dass die Menschheit gerade in eine nukleare Katastrophe "schlafwandelt". Von der Biden-Regierung erhoffen sie sich eine neue Atomwaffenpolitik, die dieses Risiko ernst nimmt. "To reduce the risk of nuclear accident or war, the Biden administration must reestablish nuclear dialogue with key nuclear states and other important powers. To be successful, however, it will have to build a working relationship with Congress, including with its Republican members, on issues that should be not just bipartisan but nonpartisan — such as arms control, nuclear policy, and diplomacy with other nuclear powers. U.S.-Russian relations are in a dismal state, but Washington and Moscow must once again acknowledge that they share an existential interest in preventing the use of nuclear weapons. The Biden administration and congressional leaders must also acknowledge that fact and work together to reverse the erosion of arms control dialogue and structures that have for many decades made the world a safer place."

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15.12.2020

"Blinken Is Good Enough"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/15/blinken-is-good-enough/

Aaron David Miller und Richard Sokolsky halten Joe Bidens Kandidaten für den Posten des US-Außenministers, Antony Blinken, im Vergleich mit James A. Baker und Henry Kissinger für einen recht durchschnittlichen Anwärter. In diesen Zeiten sei dies aber möglicherweise genau die richtige Qualität. "For this overriding mission, the new secretary of state does not need to be a brilliant strategist or conceptualizer — or have the stature, gravitas, or charisma of a Kissinger or a Baker. He needs to be highly competent, understand the deliberative process, have the experience to navigate Washington and the world, and reflect the president’s deep commitment to restoring America’s standing abroad. The good news on that front is that Blinken possesses many of those qualities — as well as traits his predecessor, Pompeo, lacked. He’s got a pragmatic and prudent streak and good interpersonal and consensus-building skills. Those will help him keep problems off Biden’s plate and avoid the pitfall of issuing diktats to the other side and then refusing to negotiate and compromise when your counterpart, understandably, refuses to submit to your ultimatums. In other words, Blinken will not be an 'our way or the highway' negotiator like Pompeo was — and he will know when the perfect outcome should not be the enemy of a good enough one."

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24.11.2020

"How to Save Democracy From Technology"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-11-24/fukuyama-how-save-democracy-technology

Francis Fukuyama, Barak Richman und Ashish Goel halten die Monopolstellung der großen Tech-Unternehmen für eine ernste Bedrohung der Demokratie. "Although there is an emerging consensus about the threat that the Big Tech companies pose to democracy, there is little agreement about how to respond. Some have argued that the government needs to break up Facebook and Google. Others have called for more stringent regulations to limit these companies’ exploitation of data. Without a clear way forward, many critics have defaulted to pressuring platforms to self-regulate, encouraging them to take down dangerous content and do a better job of curating the material carried on their sites. But few recognize that the political harms posed by the platforms are more serious than the economic ones. Fewer still have considered a practical way forward: taking away the platforms’ role as gatekeepers of content. This approach would entail inviting a new group of competitive 'middleware' companies to enable users to choose how information is presented to them. And it would likely be more effective than a quixotic effort to break these companies up."

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12.11.2020

"Ethiopia’s Dangerous Slide Toward Civil War"

http://https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/africa/2020-11-12/ethiopias-dangerous-slide-toward-civil-w
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Nic Cheeseman und Yohannes Woldemariam betrachten den drohenden Bürgerkrieg in Äthiopien als schlechtes Omen für ganz Afrika. "Less than a year ago, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed accepted the Nobel Peace Prize. Today, his country is on the brink of civil war. Tensions between Abiy’s government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), once the dominant force in Ethiopia’s ruling party but now a disgruntled and well-armed regional government, have been gradually escalating for months. Last week, the situation took a sudden turn for the worse when the prime minister ordered a military offensive against Tigrayan forces he accused of insurrectionary and traitorous activity. Ethiopia suffered a prolonged and bloody civil war from 1974 to 1991. Now it looks poised to repeat that history."

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05.11.2020

"China Is Winning the Vaccine Race"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-11-05/china-winning-vaccine-race

Im Wettrennen um die Auslieferung eines effektiven COVID-19-Impfstoffes könnte China als geopolitischer Sieger hervorgehen, erwarten Eyck Freymann und Justin Stebbing. Ein chinesisches Serum würde dabei nicht unbedingt die westlichen Märkte dominieren: "But in the vast emerging markets of Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, where more than half the global population lives and many governments can barely afford vaccines, Chinese producers are poised to dominate. Chinese vaccines are in phase three clinical trials in 18 countries, including Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Morocco, Pakistan, Peru, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. That is an enormous potential market, even if Beijing ultimately subsidizes most of the vaccine sticker price. (…) China will use such preferential vaccine deals to consolidate partnerships with governments in regions that it regards as strategically important — such as Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean. (…) Although China initially paid a diplomatic price for its failure to control the novel coronavirus, it is poised to repair its damaged reputation by reinventing itself as the public health provider for the developing world."

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22.10.2020

"U.S. Foreign Policy Never Recovered From the War on Terror"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2020-10-22/us-foreign-policy-never-recovered-war-terr
or

Der nach dem 11. September 2001 ausgerufene "Krieg gegen den Terror" habe der US-Außenpolitik dauerhaften Schaden zugefügt, stellt Matthew Duss fest. "With the declaration of its global 'war on terror' after the attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States went abroad in search of monsters and ended up midwifing new ones — from terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (or ISIS), born in the prisons of U.S.-occupied Iraq; to destabilization and deepening sectarianism across the Middle East; to racist authoritarian movements in Europe and in the United States that feed — and feed off of — the fear of refugees fleeing those regional conflicts. Advocates of the war on terror believed that nationalist chauvinism, which sometimes travels under the name 'American exceptionalism,' could be stoked at a controlled burn to sustain American hegemony. Instead, and predictably, toxic ultranationalism burned out of control. Today, the greatest security threat to the United States comes not from any terrorist group, or from any great power, but from domestic political dysfunction."

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13.10.2020

"Uniting the Techno-Democracies - How to Build Digital Cooperation"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-13/uniting-techno-democracies

Jared Cohen und Richard Fontaine hoffen, dass die liberalen Demokratien eine neue Allianz zur Regulierung des neuen digitalen Zeitalters bilden werden. "Instead of working together on issues of common interest, they have been pulled apart by diverging national interests and have responded incoherently to autocratic states’ co-optation of new technologies. Although officials in most democratic capitals now acknowledge the profound ways in which new technologies are shaping the world, they remain strangely disconnected from one another when it comes to managing them. Coordination, when it occurs, is sporadic, reactive, and ad hoc. The liberal democracies are running out of time to get their act together: whoever shapes the use of emerging technologies such as AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, and next-generation telecommunications will have an economic, military, and political advantage for decades to come. But the world’s advanced democracies have something the autocracies don’t: a long history of multilateral cooperation for the benefit of all."

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18.09.2020

"The Endless Fantasy of American Power"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-09-18/endless-fantasy-american-power

Weder Donald Trump noch Joe Biden streben eine echte Demilitarisierung der amerikanischen Außenpolitik an, stellt Andrew Bacevich fest. "An alternative path exists. Proponents of this path, most of them anti-interventionist progressives, propose to reframe politics as global rather than merely international. That is an important distinction. A global political ethos highlights problems affecting all nations, whether strong or weak, rich or poor, as opposed to emphasizing geopolitical competition, which sees the United States preoccupied with fending off any and all challengers to its preeminence. (…) A second Trump administration will never acknowledge the existence of this alternative path. And regrettably, a Biden administration will probably pay little more than lip service to it. Despite the Biden campaign’s nod toward climate change — a crisis but also, in Biden’s words, 'an enormous opportunity' — his own record and his choice of advisers suggest an administration less interested in real change than in restoring the status quo ante Trump."

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01.09.2020

"Latin America’s COVID-19 Nightmare"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2020-09-01/latin-americas-covid-19-nightmare

Die Corona-Pandemie hat Lateinamerika hart getroffen. Foreign Affairs macht trotz dieser Einschätzung darauf aufmerksam, dass Regierungen in der Region durchaus unterschiedlich auf die Krise reagiert hätten. "(…) where news reports have painted a picture of a failed continent, we see a pattern of infection and government response that varies markedly among countries. There is nothing inherently 'Latin American' about the region’s experience with COVID-19, and there has been wide variation even within countries — just as there has been in North America and Europe. COVID-19 thrives in institutional vacuums. The countries that have fared worst in Latin America, as elsewhere, struggle with severe inequality and low state capacity. (…) But the biggest determinant of all has turned out to be leadership. The countries that have been among the hardest hit and that have driven the region’s ballooning case and death rates are led by politicians who have downplayed the severity of the crisis, denied that government can do anything about it, or mounted poor policy responses that condemned hundreds of thousands of people across the Western Hemisphere to needless death."

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03.07.2020

"The Unraveling of the U.S.-South Korean Alliance"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2020-07-03/unraveling-us-south-korean-alliance

Sue Mi Terry wirft US-Präsident Trump vor, das Bündnis der USA mit Südkorea, einen Kernpfeiler der amerikanischen Sicherheitsstrategie in Asien, tief erschüttert zu haben. "The U.S.–South Korean alliance has endured many ups and downs over the decades — including popular protests against U.S. support for South Korea’s military rulers and an uproar over President Jimmy Carter’s talk of withdrawing U.S. troops. But the relationship may be facing its worst crisis yet. Over the last three and a half years, South Korean officials have seldom been in sync with the mercurial U.S. president (…) which evolved from threats of 'fire and fury' to professions of love for Kim — has left Seoul baffled, bewildered, and questioning its faith in Washington. Like a long-term marriage, the alliance is likely to survive, but South Korea’s trust in the United States has been so badly shaken that the relationship may never be the same."

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21.06.2020

"When the CIA Interferes in Foreign Elections"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-21/cia-interferes-foreign-elections

Im Zuge der Debatte über die angebliche russische Beeinflussung von US-Wahlen ist US-Geheimdiensten wie der CIA vorgeworfen worden, Jahrzehnte lang selbst demokratische Wahlen in anderen Ländern manipuliert zu haben. David Shimer hat sich eingehend mit der Geschichte dieser CIA-Praxis beschäftigt. "Over the past two years, I interviewed more than 130 officials about the century-long history of covert electoral interference, or concealed foreign efforts to manipulate democratic votes of succession. My interviewees included eight former CIA directors and many more CIA officers, as well as directors of national intelligence, secretaries of state, national security advisers, a KGB general, and a former U.S. president. I learned that in the twenty-first century, Washington’s senior-most national security officials have considered using the CIA to interfere in foreign elections at least twice. In one instance — in Serbia in 2000 — debate turned into action, as the CIA spent millions of dollars working against the tyrant Slobodan Milosevic. In the other — in Iraq in 2005 — the CIA stood down. In both instances, U.S. policymakers weighed the potential benefits of covert action against the perceived risks. These behind-the-scenes stories reveal why, contrary to Putin’s claims, Washington, unlike Moscow, has moved away from the practice of covert electoral interference."

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18.06.2020

"How to Prevent a War in Asia"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-18/how-prevent-war-asia

Michèle A. Flournoy warnt, dass das schwindende militärische Abschreckungspotential der USA in Ostasien China zu strategischen Fehlkalkulationen verleiten könnte. "The more confident China’s leaders are in their own capabilities and the more they doubt the capabilities and resolve of the United States, the greater the chance of miscalculation — a breakdown in deterrence that could bring direct conflict between two nuclear powers. As tensions continue to rise and Chinese assertiveness in the region grows, it will take a concerted effort to rebuild the credibility of U.S. deterrence in order to reduce the risk of a war that neither side seeks. (…) To reestablish credible deterrence of China, the United States must be able to prevent the success of any act of military aggression by Beijing, either by denying the PLA’s ability to achieve its aims or by imposing costs so great that Chinese leaders ultimately decide that the act is not in their interest. And Xi and his advisers must believe that the United States has not just the capability but also the resolve to carry through on any deterrent threat it makes."

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12.06.2020

"A New Civil Rights Movement Is a Foreign Policy Win"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-06-12/new-civil-rights-movement-foreign-policy-win

Die aktuelle Protestbewegung in den USA sollte nach Ansicht von US-Senator Chris Murphy als Bestätigung der Stärke der amerikanischen Demokratie und als Signal an autoritäre Staaten betrachtet werden. "(…) fears that the new tempest over racial justice is making the United States look weak in the eyes of the world are totally and completely upside down. This moment of reckoning could end up becoming a defining advertisement for the American model, a body blow to autocratic regimes all around the world, and a way for the United States to reclaim much of the moral standing that it has lost during the past three years. (…) however flawed and frail U.S. democracy may be, it is still the world’s standard, and the future of the global fight between self-determination and autocracy largely rests on its success or failure."

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09.06.2020

"The Next Liberal Order - The Age of Contagion Demands More Internationalism, Not Less"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-09/next-liberal-order

Der Politikwissenschaftler G. John Ikenberry erwartet, dass die Coronakrise den Zerfall der globalen Ordnung kurzfristig beschleunigen wird. Die Krise könnte von weitsichtigen Politikern aber auch als Gelegenheit für eine Analyse vergangener Fehler und für einen internationalistischen Neuanfang ergriffen werden, so seine Hoffnung. "Internationalism was not a project of tearing down borders and globalizing the world; it was about managing the growing complexities of economic and security interdependence in the pursuit of national well-being. Today’s liberal democracies are the bankrupt heirs to this project, but with U.S. leadership, they can still turn it around. (…) Past American leaders understood that the global problems of modernity called for a global solution and set about building a worldwide network of alliances and multilateral institutions. But for many observers, the result of these efforts — the liberal international order — has been a failure. (…) Liberal internationalists need to acknowledge these missteps and failures. Under the auspices of the liberal international order, the United States has intervened too much, regulated too little, and delivered less than it promised. But what do its detractors have to offer? Despite its faults, no other organizing principle currently under debate comes close to liberal internationalism in making the case for a decent and cooperative world order that encourages the enlightened pursuit of national interests."

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09.06.2020

"The Rise of Strategic Corruption - How States Weaponize Graft"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-09/rise-strategic-corruption

Philip Zelikow, Eric Edelman, Kristofer Harrison und Celeste Ward Gventer schreiben, dass Korruption heute durch Länder wie China und Russland als effektives Instrument ihrer nationalen Strategien eingesetzt werde. "Countries have done this before, but never on the scale seen today. The result has been a subtle but significant shift in international politics. Rivalries between states have generally been fought over ideologies, spheres of influence, and national interests; side payments of one kind or another were just one tactic among many. Those side payments, however, have become core instruments of national strategy, leveraged to gain specific policy outcomes and to condition the wider political environment in targeted countries. This weaponized corruption relies on a specific form of asymmetry. Although any government can hire covert agents or bribe officials elsewhere, the relative openness and freedom of democratic countries make them particularly vulnerable to this kind of malign influence — and their nondemocratic enemies have figured out how to exploit that weakness."

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05.06.2020

"Foreign Policy By Example"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-05/protests-pandemic-world-watching

Der außenpolitische Einfluss der USA wird Richard Haass zufolge derzeit von drei Krisen geprägt. "The United States is currently experiencing three upheavals simultaneously: the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic aftershocks of that emergency, and the political protests and in some cases violence sparked by the videotape of the killing of George Floyd, a 46-year-old African American man, by police officers in Minneapolis. The three crises of this moment will undoubtedly affect the foreign policy of the United States, which for three-quarters of a century has been the preeminent power in the world. Indeed, recent developments could have a profound and enduring impact on American influence. Unless the United States is able to come together to address its persistent societal and political divides, global prospects for democracy may weaken, friends and allies of the United States may rethink their decision to place their security in American hands, and competitors may dispense with some or all of their traditional caution."

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02.06.2020

"The Overmilitarization of American Foreign Policy"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-02/robert-gates-overmilitarization-american
-foreign-policy

Der frühere US-Verteidigungsminister Robert M. Gates kritisiert in der Debatte über die US-Außenpolitik vor allem deren übermäßige Militarisierung. "Some on the left are convinced that the United States should intervene to safeguard civilians, as in Libya, Sudan, and Syria. Some on the right advocate the use of force against China, Iran, or North Korea or want to provide large-scale military assistance to Ukraine or to the opposition in Syria. A president who ignores one or the other camp is considered either morally bereft or a wimp. (…) What is so striking about the overmilitarization of the period following the Cold War is just how much U.S. policymakers failed to learn the lessons of the seven previous decades. One of the United States’ greatest victories of the twentieth century relied not on military might but on subtler tools of power. (…) U.S. policymakers have many nonmilitary tools at their disposal. But those tools will remain inadequate for the challenges ahead if Washington does not overhaul its outdated national security apparatus."

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28.05.2020

"Build a Better Blob"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-05-28/build-better-blob

Emma Ashford vom Cato Institute widerspricht der Annahme, dass die US-Außenpolitik gegenwärtig vor einer binären Wahl zwischen einem außenpolitischen Establishment diskreditierter Eliten und dem "Trumpismus" stehe. "Defending the Blob as the only game in town is convenient for those who subscribe to its consensus, but it sets up a dangerous dichotomy: to claim that expertise and hawkish liberal interventionism are one and the same leaves nothing but Trumpian incompetence as the alternative. That argument serves only the interests of a failed foreign policy and the people behind it. But in relying on a term as ill-defined as the Blob, even critics of the status quo have inadvertently played into this misleading narrative. For those who seek to reform U.S. foreign policy, the best path may be to send Rhodes’s neologism into retirement. Instead of criticizing the Blob, reformers should work to replace it."

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25.05.2020

"Iraq Can Now Wrest Its Sovereignty From Iran"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2020-05-25/iraq-can-now-wrest-its-sovereignty-iran

Der neue irakische Premierminister Mustafa al-Kadhimi bemühe sich, die von Teheran unterstützten schiitischen Milizen im Land unter Kontrolle zu bringen und so die Abhängigkeit Iraks vom Iran zu verringern, schreibt Hamdi Malik. "Iranian-backed Iraqi militias such as Kataib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, among others, operate outside the jurisdiction of the Iraqi state. They are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella military organization that is nominally under Iraqi command but that in fact plays an integral part in projecting Iranian power throughout the region. Previous Iraqi administrations tried, but ultimately failed, to limit the influence of the armed militias. (…) Recent developments in Iraq and in the wider region suggest that the new prime minister has a much better chance than his predecessors did of curbing the militias’ influence and consequently, that of Iran."

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29.04.2020

"In Defense of the Blob"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-04-29/defense-blob

Hal Brands, Peter Feaver und William Inboden erklären in diesem Beitrag, warum sie die verbreitete Kritik am außenpolitischen Establishment in Washington für ungerechtfertigt halten. "The foreign policy establishment is not a closed cabal, American statecraft has not been a giant failure, and scrapping professionalism for amateurism would be a disaster. In truth, the foreign policy establishment is an American strength rather than weakness. It is more open-minded and accountable than its critics allow. It acts as a storehouse of accumulated professional wisdom, providing intellectual ballast to the ship of state. On balance, the establishment’s practical track record has been impressive, with some well-known fiascos outweighed by many quiet successes. And the current administration’s foreign policy blunders — including in its response to the current pandemic — demonstrate what happens when the establishment’s experience and expertise are rejected. In short, the Blob is not the problem. It is the solution."

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15.04.2020

"The Pandemic Won’t Make China the World’s Leader"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-04-15/pandemic-wont-make-china-worlds-leader

Michael Green und Evan S. Medeiros bezweifeln dagegen, dass China die Coronakrise als "Sprungbrett" für seinen internationalen Aufstieg nutzen kann. "There are real limits to China’s capacity to take advantage of the current crisis — whether through disingenuous propaganda or ineffective global action. And just as the potential for China to benefit from the coronavirus is too easily overstated, the ability of the United States to show global leadership even after its initial missteps is too easily discounted. As deeply flawed as Washington’s response to the pandemic has been so far, the United States’ power — distinct from any particular president — rests on an enduring combination of material capabilities and political legitimacy, and there are few signs that the pandemic is causing power to shift rapidly and permanently to China’s side of the ledger."

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13.04.2020

"Xi Jinping Won the Coronavirus Crisis"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-04-13/xi-jinping-won-coronavirus-crisis

Die chinesische Führung werde aus der Corona-Pandemie innen- und außenpolitisch gestärkt hervorgehen, glaubt Yanzhong Huang vom Council on Foreign Relations. "Two months ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping looked like he would emerge from the novel coronavirus pandemic with his legitimacy and his ambitions for Chinese global leadership in tatters. Today, as the Chinese government lifts its lockdown on the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, Xi can present himself instead as a forceful and triumphant leader on the world stage. (…) In a remarkable turn of events, Xi has not only muddled through the crisis but emerged as a stronger leader at home and abroad. Arguably, he has succeeded because he was able to impose harsh restrictive measures that would be impossible to carry out in Western democracies. And as the death toll increases worldwide, Xi may face more international criticism for his government’s role in setting the pandemic loose — and for likely understating the number of infections and deaths in China. But as COVID-19 ravages one country after another, few can deny that China is fast becoming the safest place on earth. As John Allen of the Brookings Institution reminds us, history will be written by the victors of the COVID-19 crisis. And Xi looks like a winner, at least for now."

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07.04.2020

"The Pandemic Will Accelerate History Rather Than Reshape It"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-04-07/pandemic-will-accelerate-history-rather-
reshape-it

Richard Haass bezweifelt, dass die Coronakrise ein politischer "Wendepunkt" sein wird. Es sei wahrscheinlicher, dass bereits bestehende Trends in der internationalen Politik beschleunigt werden. "(…) the world following the pandemic is unlikely to be radically different from the one that preceded it. COVID-19 will not so much change the basic direction of world history as accelerate it. The pandemic and the response to it have revealed and reinforced the fundamental characteristics of geopolitics today. As a result, this crisis promises to be less of a turning point than a way station along the road that the world has been traveling for the past few decades."

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06.04.2020

"Coronavirus and the Future of Surveillance"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-04-06/coronavirus-and-future-surveillance

Nicholas Wright schreibt, dass sich die asiatischen Überwachungsmaßnahmen zur Bekämpfung der Corona-Pandemie als erfolgreicher herausstellen könnten als die westlichen Strategien. Er empfiehlt eine Adaptierung der asiatischen Maßnahmen in Form einer "demokratischen Überwachung". "Just as the September 11 attacks ushered in new surveillance practices in the United States, the coronavirus pandemic might do the same for many nations around the world. Afflicted countries are all eager to better control their citizens. Every functioning state now has a public health strategy to tackle COVID-19 that emphasizes both monitoring residents and trying to influence their behavior. But neither the United States nor European countries have used the widespread and intrusive surveillance methods applied in East Asia. So far, the Western approach promises to be much less successful than East Asian strategies. (…) Western liberal democracies must be unafraid in trying to sharpen their powers of surveillance for public health purposes. There is nothing oxymoronic about the idea of 'democratic surveillance.' After all, in the past two centuries, the United States and United Kingdom have simultaneously strengthened their democratic institutions while increasing their powers of surveillance. Looking ahead, liberal democracies should identify which methods practiced in East Asia to contain COVID-19 are worthy of emulation and avoid those requiring intrusive surveillance. In particular, Western countries should learn from the speed and scale of interventions in East Asia."

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