US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Foreign Affairs


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"Crisis of Command"

Das US-amerikanische Militär stehe immer weniger unter ziviler Kontrolle, analysieren Risa Brooks, Jim Golby und Heidi Urben. Die Sicherheit der Vereinigten Staaten sei hierdurch gefährdet, institutionelle Reformen seien notwendig. "Because the military filters information that civilians need and implements the orders that civilians give, it can wield great influence over civilian decision-making. Even if elected officials still get the final say, they may have little practical control if generals dictate all the options or slow their implementation - as they often do now. (…) If Americans do not recognize the rot lurking beneath their idyllic vision of civilian control, the United States' civil-military crisis will only get worse. More than most citizens realize, the country's democratic traditions and national security both depend on this delicate relationship. Without robust civilian oversight of the military, the United States will not remain a democracy or a global power for long."

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"China's Unrestricted War on India"

Die Ursache für den Stromausfall in Indiens größter Stadt Mumbai am 12. Oktober 2020 sei möglicherweise geklärt, informiert Brahma Chellaney. Indische Beamte hielten eine Cyberattacke auf die Server staatlicher Energieversorgungsunternehmen für möglich. "They did not name a particular culprit, but the implication was clear. Chinese hackers, officials suggested, had trained their sights on bringing down Mumbai's electric grid - and they had succeeded. (…) The cyber-tactics run parallel to more traditional conflicts. Last May, a shocked India discovered that Chinese forces had stealthily occupied mountaintops and other strategic vantage points in the northern border region of Ladakh. (…) In June, clashes between Chinese and Indian forces left dozens of soldiers dead."

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"The Illiberal Tide"

Wie wird die internationale Ordnung künftig aussehen? Alexander Cooley und Daniel Nexon wagen eine Prognose: "Current trends suggest less a complete collapse of liberal order than important changes in the mix of illiberal and liberal elements that characterize world politics. Multilateral cooperation and global governance remain strong, but they display increasingly autocratic and illiberal characteristics. The growing strength of reactionary populism and assertiveness of autocratic powers are eroding the international order's ability to support human, political, and civil rights. Similar developments point toward a future where liberal economic arrangements are used for oligarchic and kleptocratic purposes."

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"It Is Time for a Realistic Bargain With North Korea"

Nordkorea auf diplomatischem Wege von einer vollkommenen Denuklearisierung zu überzeugen, sei - zumindest vorerst - unwahrscheinlich, analysieren Eric Brewer und Sue Mi Terry. Um das Risiko einer nuklearen Eskalation zu reduzieren, schlagen sie vor: "The United States should not give up the long-term goal of denuclearization, but in the meantime, it could try to strike a more realistic bargain and prevent the threat from getting worse. Washington should test whether a limited arms control approach could work. (…) A good arms control agreement that verifiably reduces the threat from North Korea's nuclear weapons without endangering the security of Japan or South Korea - and that does not give the North any unearned concessions - would be a considerable improvement over the current standoff, but a bad agreement could be worse than the status quo."

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"There Will Not Be a New Cold War"

Die Konkurrenz zwischen China und den USA sei nicht mit dem Kalten Krieg zwischen den Vereinigten Staaten und der Sowjetunion im zwanzigsten Jahrhundert vergleichbar, meint Thomas Christensen. "Many important potential U.S. partners, such as Vietnam or Thailand, are not like-minded states, and many liberal states that are potential U.S. partners, such as India and South Korea, do not want to base their strategic cooperation with the United States on a zero-sum approach toward Beijing. (…) In a March 2019 security paper, the European Commission (…) emphasized the need for cooperation and economic integration with Beijing and even a 'strategic partnership.' (…) This is hardly a cold war."

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"The World Still Needs the UN"

Die Gründungsideale der Vereinten Nationen - Menschenrechte und Rechtsstaatlichkeit - würden durch das Verhalten Chinas und Russlands auf die Probe gestellt werden, argumentiert Suzanne Nossel. Die Organisation stehe an einem Scheideweg: "If governments that are committed to the UN's original vision and values assert themselves and lead this process, they can strengthen the United Nations amid an unprecedented assault, pressing authoritarian states to heed human rights and the rule of law. On the other hand, continued scorn and neglect of the UN will pave the way for a fast-expanding illiberal influence within the institution, eroding the delicate balance of power that is at the heart of global governance. (…) Reconciling the UN's paradox - its vast capacity to achieve and to disappoint - requires a deliberate decision to recognize the world body's limitations and to unleash its potential despite them."

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"U.S.-Chinese Rivalry Is a Battle Over Values"

Ideologische Aspekte aus der außenpolitischen Strategie der USA zu verbannen, sei weder möglich noch erstrebenswert, konstatieren Hal Brands und Zack Cooper. "Leaving values and morality to the side would eliminate one of the United States' greatest advantages and make it harder to rally coalitions at home and abroad. It would play into Beijing's hands by making the rivalry an amoral struggle over military dominance rather than a contest over what philosophical principles should structure domestic governance and the international order."

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"The Only Stable Saudi Arabia Is a Democratic Saudi Arabia"

Die US-Regierung solle mehr Druck auf den saudischen Kronprinzen Mohammed bin Salman ausüben, um politische Reformen im Königreich einzuleiten, meint Madawi al-Rasheed. "Some in Riyadh will no doubt see any effort to tie the ongoing U.S. commitment to Saudi security to political reforms as an infringement on the country's sovereignty. But Biden and his team should emphasize that a road map away from the ticking time bomb of absolute monarchy is the only way to ensure both the stability of Saudi Arabia and the survival of its royal family. (...) The loudest voices calling for reform in Saudi Arabia right now are those of moderates, but that could easily change."

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"America's Indo-Pacific Folly"

Ein stärkeres Engagement im indopazifischen Raum könnte für die Vereinigten Staaten zur Katastrophe werden, warnt Van Jackson. "The goal of a 'free and open Indo-Pacific' may sound noble, but pursuing it will lead the United States astray. The concept of an Indo-Pacific expands what is meant by Asia to include the Indian Ocean region, an area of debatable interest to the United States that many now see as vital for countering China. Widening the regional aperture in this manner encourages military overstretch by positioning the United States for commitments that will be difficult to defend and distracts policymaker attention from other parts of Asia, where decades of hard-won peace hinge much more directly on American words and deeds."

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"The Declining Market for Secrets"

Die US-Geheimdienste müssten sich neu erfinden, um weiterhin effektiv agieren zu können, empfehlen Zachery Tyson Brown und Carmen Medina. "Imagine a dynamic content platform, authorized by the director of national intelligence, that users could access from any location and on any device. This platform would supply intelligence in an easy, distinctive, and user-friendly format to anyone who works in national security. (...) The U.S. intelligence community should not stop collecting and keeping secrets altogether. (...) But the United States should place less emphasis on hard intelligence and realign its limited resources accordingly."

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"Stability in the Middle East Requires More Than a Deal With Iran"

Auf Grundlage von Interviews mit 210 Expertinnen und Experten aus 15 Ländern zieht Sanam Vakil ein Fazit: Eine Rückkehr zum Atomabkommen von 2015 mit Iran reiche für eine Stabilisierung des Nahen Ostens nicht aus. "For the nuclear deal to be sustainable, it will need to be insulated against future political reversals. And ensuring such durability requires the signatories to address the deal's vulnerabilities, which include the length of its timelines and the provisions for snapback sanctions, as well as problems outside the agreement's current scope, such as Iran's missile program and destabilizing regional activities. Without a regional game plan, the Biden administration's Iran and wider Middle East agenda will remain vulnerable to opposition from partisan adversaries in Washington and U.S. partners in the Middle East."

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"The Innovation Wars"

Seit den Anfängen des Kalten Krieges seien die USA weltweit führend in Sachen Technologie, konstatieren Christopher Darby und Sarah Sewall. In den letzten Jahren habe China jedoch beeindruckende Anstrengungen unternommen, um die technologische Vorreiterposition zu übernehmen. "In the face of China's technological drive, U.S. policymakers have called for greater government action to protect the United States' lead. (...) Washington needs to broaden its horizons and support a wider range of technologies. It needs to back not only those technologies that have obvious military applications, such as hypersonic flight, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence, but also those traditionally thought of as civilian in nature, such as microelectronics and biotechnology."

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"The United States Must Move Forward, Not Back, on Iran"

In einem gemeinsamen Beitrag schreiben Amos Yadlin, Exekutivdirektor des Institute for National Security Studies in Israel sowie ehemaliger Chef des israelischen Militärgeheimdiensts, und Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, Präsidentin des Emirates Policy Center in den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten, dass eine Rückkehr der USA zum ursprünglichen Atomabkommen mit dem Iran ein großer strategischer Fehler wäre. "A better approach (...) would be one that aims to reach a modest interim agreement, or 'JCPOA minus,' after which talks would focus on achieving a more restrictive nuclear deal than the original, or 'JCPOA plus.' If, however, the Biden administration remains determined to revive the previous agreement, it should take additional steps to ensure that Tehran does not acquire nuclear weapons - and to reassure U.S. allies in the region that Washington will not gamble with their security."

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"Delusions of Dominance"

US-Präsident Biden sollte Stephen Wertheim zufolge besser darauf verzichten, die globale Vormachtstellung der USA wiederherstellen zu wollen. "Biden (…) is inheriting a long-standing U.S. grand strategy that is systemically broken and that no tonal adjustment or policy nuance can fix. For three decades, successive presidents — Trump included — continually expanded U.S. wars, forward deployments, and defense commitments in the pursuit of armed dominance across the globe. The price of primacy (…) has been severe. By seeking global dominance rather than just its own defense, the United States has acquired a world of antagonists. These antagonists have in turn further increased the costs and dangers of dominance. As a result, U.S. foreign policy has failed in its most essential purpose: it has made the American people less safe where they live."

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"Iran Wants the Nuclear Deal It Made"

Neue US-amerikanische Forderungen an den Iran, die über das Atomabkommen von 2015 hinausgehen, seien für die iranische Seite inakzeptabel, betont Irans amtierender Außenminister Mohammed Dschawad Sarif. "U.S. President Joe Biden can choose a better path by ending Trump's failed policy of 'maximum pressure' and returning to the deal his predecessor abandoned. If he does, Iran will likewise return to full implementation of our commitments under the nuclear deal. But if Washington instead insists on extracting concessions, then this opportunity will be lost."

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"The Last Chance for American Internationalism"

Mit Joe Biden habe der Amerikanische Internationalismus eine letzte Chance bekommen, schreibt Hal Brands. "The incoming Biden administration now faces a daunting task. U.S. allies may not come rushing back with open arms; the new president cannot simply declare that the United States has returned. Rather, Biden must update American internationalism for a new era of geopolitical and ideological rivalry and restore, domestically and globally, the credibility of a tradition that has been badly damaged. If he fails, history may look upon his presidency as the last gasp, rather than the second wind, of American internationalism."

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"Present at the Destruction"

Mit dem von ihm provozierten Sturm auf das US-Kapitol habe US-Präsident Trump die Entstehung einer "postamerikanischen Welt" noch einmal beschleunigt, meint Richard Haass. "What took place last week was a distinctly American failure, but the consequences go far beyond American shores. A post-American world, one no longer defined by U.S. primacy, is coming sooner than generally expected — less because of the inevitable rise of others than because of what the United States has done to itself. (…) The images reinforced the sense among fellow democracies that something is seriously wrong in and with the United States. (…) As a result, allies have little choice but to question their decision to entrust their security to the United States. (…) The violence at the Capitol will in particular weaken the United States’ ability to advocate for democracy and the rule of law: imagine the shouts of hypocrisy the next time Washington lectures or sanctions another government for its behavior."

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"Vaccine Nationalism Will Prolong the Pandemic"

Thomas J. Bollyky und Chad P. Bown warnen, dass der "Impfstoff-Nationalismus" die Corona-Pandemie verlängern und anhaltende internationale Folgen haben könnte. "No one expects governments with early access to forgo vaccinating vulnerable members of their populations first. These include frontline health-care workers, residents and staff of long-term care facilities, and essential workers. But the current signs suggest that wealthy nations will seek to vaccinate their entire populations, even low-risk individuals, before sharing their vaccine supplies with others. (…) If competition continues to trump cooperation, many nations, including some wealthy ones, will be left waiting months or longer for proven vaccines. In the interim, health-care workers and people at high risk in those countries will go unprotected. Desperate governments may turn to unproven vaccines, putting their citizens at further risk. The legacy of resentment against vaccine-hoarding nations will be intense, imperiling the future international cooperation needed to prevent the next pandemic."

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"Drones Are Destabilizing Global Politics"

Bewaffnete Kampfdrohnen stellen sich nach Ansicht von Jason Lyal auf internationaler Ebene immer mehr als destabilisierender Faktor heraus. "The world has entered an era of drone wars. In four major interstate wars in the last five years — those in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria, and Ukraine — armed drones played a dominant, perhaps decisive, role. (…) Cheap, survivable drones, combined with armor and artillery, offer the militaries that field them real advantages. The four recent conflicts in which drones have appeared show that even modest vehicles can help win military victories and reshape geopolitics. And as drones become part of the arsenals of more countries — surging from eight in 2015 to 20 today — new actors are poised to seize the opportunity they offer to grab territory or ignite previously frozen conflicts. Governments and analysts need to rethink the role these weapons may play in actually increasing the risk of interstate violence."

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"Sleepwalking Toward the Nuclear Precipice"

Ernest J. Moniz und Sam Nunn fürchten, dass die Menschheit gerade in eine nukleare Katastrophe "schlafwandelt". Von der Biden-Regierung erhoffen sie sich eine neue Atomwaffenpolitik, die dieses Risiko ernst nimmt. "To reduce the risk of nuclear accident or war, the Biden administration must reestablish nuclear dialogue with key nuclear states and other important powers. To be successful, however, it will have to build a working relationship with Congress, including with its Republican members, on issues that should be not just bipartisan but nonpartisan — such as arms control, nuclear policy, and diplomacy with other nuclear powers. U.S.-Russian relations are in a dismal state, but Washington and Moscow must once again acknowledge that they share an existential interest in preventing the use of nuclear weapons. The Biden administration and congressional leaders must also acknowledge that fact and work together to reverse the erosion of arms control dialogue and structures that have for many decades made the world a safer place."

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"Blinken Is Good Enough"

Aaron David Miller und Richard Sokolsky halten Joe Bidens Kandidaten für den Posten des US-Außenministers, Antony Blinken, im Vergleich mit James A. Baker und Henry Kissinger für einen recht durchschnittlichen Anwärter. In diesen Zeiten sei dies aber möglicherweise genau die richtige Qualität. "For this overriding mission, the new secretary of state does not need to be a brilliant strategist or conceptualizer — or have the stature, gravitas, or charisma of a Kissinger or a Baker. He needs to be highly competent, understand the deliberative process, have the experience to navigate Washington and the world, and reflect the president’s deep commitment to restoring America’s standing abroad. The good news on that front is that Blinken possesses many of those qualities — as well as traits his predecessor, Pompeo, lacked. He’s got a pragmatic and prudent streak and good interpersonal and consensus-building skills. Those will help him keep problems off Biden’s plate and avoid the pitfall of issuing diktats to the other side and then refusing to negotiate and compromise when your counterpart, understandably, refuses to submit to your ultimatums. In other words, Blinken will not be an 'our way or the highway' negotiator like Pompeo was — and he will know when the perfect outcome should not be the enemy of a good enough one."

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"How to Save Democracy From Technology"

Francis Fukuyama, Barak Richman und Ashish Goel halten die Monopolstellung der großen Tech-Unternehmen für eine ernste Bedrohung der Demokratie. "Although there is an emerging consensus about the threat that the Big Tech companies pose to democracy, there is little agreement about how to respond. Some have argued that the government needs to break up Facebook and Google. Others have called for more stringent regulations to limit these companies’ exploitation of data. Without a clear way forward, many critics have defaulted to pressuring platforms to self-regulate, encouraging them to take down dangerous content and do a better job of curating the material carried on their sites. But few recognize that the political harms posed by the platforms are more serious than the economic ones. Fewer still have considered a practical way forward: taking away the platforms’ role as gatekeepers of content. This approach would entail inviting a new group of competitive 'middleware' companies to enable users to choose how information is presented to them. And it would likely be more effective than a quixotic effort to break these companies up."

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"Ethiopia’s Dangerous Slide Toward Civil War"


Nic Cheeseman und Yohannes Woldemariam betrachten den drohenden Bürgerkrieg in Äthiopien als schlechtes Omen für ganz Afrika. "Less than a year ago, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed accepted the Nobel Peace Prize. Today, his country is on the brink of civil war. Tensions between Abiy’s government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), once the dominant force in Ethiopia’s ruling party but now a disgruntled and well-armed regional government, have been gradually escalating for months. Last week, the situation took a sudden turn for the worse when the prime minister ordered a military offensive against Tigrayan forces he accused of insurrectionary and traitorous activity. Ethiopia suffered a prolonged and bloody civil war from 1974 to 1991. Now it looks poised to repeat that history."

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"China Is Winning the Vaccine Race"

Im Wettrennen um die Auslieferung eines effektiven COVID-19-Impfstoffes könnte China als geopolitischer Sieger hervorgehen, erwarten Eyck Freymann und Justin Stebbing. Ein chinesisches Serum würde dabei nicht unbedingt die westlichen Märkte dominieren: "But in the vast emerging markets of Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, where more than half the global population lives and many governments can barely afford vaccines, Chinese producers are poised to dominate. Chinese vaccines are in phase three clinical trials in 18 countries, including Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Morocco, Pakistan, Peru, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. That is an enormous potential market, even if Beijing ultimately subsidizes most of the vaccine sticker price. (…) China will use such preferential vaccine deals to consolidate partnerships with governments in regions that it regards as strategically important — such as Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean. (…) Although China initially paid a diplomatic price for its failure to control the novel coronavirus, it is poised to repair its damaged reputation by reinventing itself as the public health provider for the developing world."

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"U.S. Foreign Policy Never Recovered From the War on Terror"

Der nach dem 11. September 2001 ausgerufene "Krieg gegen den Terror" habe der US-Außenpolitik dauerhaften Schaden zugefügt, stellt Matthew Duss fest. "With the declaration of its global 'war on terror' after the attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States went abroad in search of monsters and ended up midwifing new ones — from terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (or ISIS), born in the prisons of U.S.-occupied Iraq; to destabilization and deepening sectarianism across the Middle East; to racist authoritarian movements in Europe and in the United States that feed — and feed off of — the fear of refugees fleeing those regional conflicts. Advocates of the war on terror believed that nationalist chauvinism, which sometimes travels under the name 'American exceptionalism,' could be stoked at a controlled burn to sustain American hegemony. Instead, and predictably, toxic ultranationalism burned out of control. Today, the greatest security threat to the United States comes not from any terrorist group, or from any great power, but from domestic political dysfunction."

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"Uniting the Techno-Democracies - How to Build Digital Cooperation"

Jared Cohen und Richard Fontaine hoffen, dass die liberalen Demokratien eine neue Allianz zur Regulierung des neuen digitalen Zeitalters bilden werden. "Instead of working together on issues of common interest, they have been pulled apart by diverging national interests and have responded incoherently to autocratic states’ co-optation of new technologies. Although officials in most democratic capitals now acknowledge the profound ways in which new technologies are shaping the world, they remain strangely disconnected from one another when it comes to managing them. Coordination, when it occurs, is sporadic, reactive, and ad hoc. The liberal democracies are running out of time to get their act together: whoever shapes the use of emerging technologies such as AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, and next-generation telecommunications will have an economic, military, and political advantage for decades to come. But the world’s advanced democracies have something the autocracies don’t: a long history of multilateral cooperation for the benefit of all."

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"The Endless Fantasy of American Power"

Weder Donald Trump noch Joe Biden streben eine echte Demilitarisierung der amerikanischen Außenpolitik an, stellt Andrew Bacevich fest. "An alternative path exists. Proponents of this path, most of them anti-interventionist progressives, propose to reframe politics as global rather than merely international. That is an important distinction. A global political ethos highlights problems affecting all nations, whether strong or weak, rich or poor, as opposed to emphasizing geopolitical competition, which sees the United States preoccupied with fending off any and all challengers to its preeminence. (…) A second Trump administration will never acknowledge the existence of this alternative path. And regrettably, a Biden administration will probably pay little more than lip service to it. Despite the Biden campaign’s nod toward climate change — a crisis but also, in Biden’s words, 'an enormous opportunity' — his own record and his choice of advisers suggest an administration less interested in real change than in restoring the status quo ante Trump."

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"Latin America’s COVID-19 Nightmare"

Die Corona-Pandemie hat Lateinamerika hart getroffen. Foreign Affairs macht trotz dieser Einschätzung darauf aufmerksam, dass Regierungen in der Region durchaus unterschiedlich auf die Krise reagiert hätten. "(…) where news reports have painted a picture of a failed continent, we see a pattern of infection and government response that varies markedly among countries. There is nothing inherently 'Latin American' about the region’s experience with COVID-19, and there has been wide variation even within countries — just as there has been in North America and Europe. COVID-19 thrives in institutional vacuums. The countries that have fared worst in Latin America, as elsewhere, struggle with severe inequality and low state capacity. (…) But the biggest determinant of all has turned out to be leadership. The countries that have been among the hardest hit and that have driven the region’s ballooning case and death rates are led by politicians who have downplayed the severity of the crisis, denied that government can do anything about it, or mounted poor policy responses that condemned hundreds of thousands of people across the Western Hemisphere to needless death."

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"The Unraveling of the U.S.-South Korean Alliance"

Sue Mi Terry wirft US-Präsident Trump vor, das Bündnis der USA mit Südkorea, einen Kernpfeiler der amerikanischen Sicherheitsstrategie in Asien, tief erschüttert zu haben. "The U.S.–South Korean alliance has endured many ups and downs over the decades — including popular protests against U.S. support for South Korea’s military rulers and an uproar over President Jimmy Carter’s talk of withdrawing U.S. troops. But the relationship may be facing its worst crisis yet. Over the last three and a half years, South Korean officials have seldom been in sync with the mercurial U.S. president (…) which evolved from threats of 'fire and fury' to professions of love for Kim — has left Seoul baffled, bewildered, and questioning its faith in Washington. Like a long-term marriage, the alliance is likely to survive, but South Korea’s trust in the United States has been so badly shaken that the relationship may never be the same."

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