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18.09.2020

"The Endless Fantasy of American Power"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-09-18/endless-fantasy-american-power

Weder Donald Trump noch Joe Biden streben eine echte Demilitarisierung der amerikanischen Außenpolitik an, stellt Andrew Bacevich fest. "An alternative path exists. Proponents of this path, most of them anti-interventionist progressives, propose to reframe politics as global rather than merely international. That is an important distinction. A global political ethos highlights problems affecting all nations, whether strong or weak, rich or poor, as opposed to emphasizing geopolitical competition, which sees the United States preoccupied with fending off any and all challengers to its preeminence. (…) A second Trump administration will never acknowledge the existence of this alternative path. And regrettably, a Biden administration will probably pay little more than lip service to it. Despite the Biden campaign’s nod toward climate change — a crisis but also, in Biden’s words, 'an enormous opportunity' — his own record and his choice of advisers suggest an administration less interested in real change than in restoring the status quo ante Trump."

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01.09.2020

"Latin America’s COVID-19 Nightmare"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2020-09-01/latin-americas-covid-19-nightmare

Die Corona-Pandemie hat Lateinamerika hart getroffen. Foreign Affairs macht trotz dieser Einschätzung darauf aufmerksam, dass Regierungen in der Region durchaus unterschiedlich auf die Krise reagiert hätten. "(…) where news reports have painted a picture of a failed continent, we see a pattern of infection and government response that varies markedly among countries. There is nothing inherently 'Latin American' about the region’s experience with COVID-19, and there has been wide variation even within countries — just as there has been in North America and Europe. COVID-19 thrives in institutional vacuums. The countries that have fared worst in Latin America, as elsewhere, struggle with severe inequality and low state capacity. (…) But the biggest determinant of all has turned out to be leadership. The countries that have been among the hardest hit and that have driven the region’s ballooning case and death rates are led by politicians who have downplayed the severity of the crisis, denied that government can do anything about it, or mounted poor policy responses that condemned hundreds of thousands of people across the Western Hemisphere to needless death."

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03.07.2020

"The Unraveling of the U.S.-South Korean Alliance"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2020-07-03/unraveling-us-south-korean-alliance

Sue Mi Terry wirft US-Präsident Trump vor, das Bündnis der USA mit Südkorea, einen Kernpfeiler der amerikanischen Sicherheitsstrategie in Asien, tief erschüttert zu haben. "The U.S.–South Korean alliance has endured many ups and downs over the decades — including popular protests against U.S. support for South Korea’s military rulers and an uproar over President Jimmy Carter’s talk of withdrawing U.S. troops. But the relationship may be facing its worst crisis yet. Over the last three and a half years, South Korean officials have seldom been in sync with the mercurial U.S. president (…) which evolved from threats of 'fire and fury' to professions of love for Kim — has left Seoul baffled, bewildered, and questioning its faith in Washington. Like a long-term marriage, the alliance is likely to survive, but South Korea’s trust in the United States has been so badly shaken that the relationship may never be the same."

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21.06.2020

"When the CIA Interferes in Foreign Elections"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-21/cia-interferes-foreign-elections

Im Zuge der Debatte über die angebliche russische Beeinflussung von US-Wahlen ist US-Geheimdiensten wie der CIA vorgeworfen worden, Jahrzehnte lang selbst demokratische Wahlen in anderen Ländern manipuliert zu haben. David Shimer hat sich eingehend mit der Geschichte dieser CIA-Praxis beschäftigt. "Over the past two years, I interviewed more than 130 officials about the century-long history of covert electoral interference, or concealed foreign efforts to manipulate democratic votes of succession. My interviewees included eight former CIA directors and many more CIA officers, as well as directors of national intelligence, secretaries of state, national security advisers, a KGB general, and a former U.S. president. I learned that in the twenty-first century, Washington’s senior-most national security officials have considered using the CIA to interfere in foreign elections at least twice. In one instance — in Serbia in 2000 — debate turned into action, as the CIA spent millions of dollars working against the tyrant Slobodan Milosevic. In the other — in Iraq in 2005 — the CIA stood down. In both instances, U.S. policymakers weighed the potential benefits of covert action against the perceived risks. These behind-the-scenes stories reveal why, contrary to Putin’s claims, Washington, unlike Moscow, has moved away from the practice of covert electoral interference."

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18.06.2020

"How to Prevent a War in Asia"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-18/how-prevent-war-asia

Michèle A. Flournoy warnt, dass das schwindende militärische Abschreckungspotential der USA in Ostasien China zu strategischen Fehlkalkulationen verleiten könnte. "The more confident China’s leaders are in their own capabilities and the more they doubt the capabilities and resolve of the United States, the greater the chance of miscalculation — a breakdown in deterrence that could bring direct conflict between two nuclear powers. As tensions continue to rise and Chinese assertiveness in the region grows, it will take a concerted effort to rebuild the credibility of U.S. deterrence in order to reduce the risk of a war that neither side seeks. (…) To reestablish credible deterrence of China, the United States must be able to prevent the success of any act of military aggression by Beijing, either by denying the PLA’s ability to achieve its aims or by imposing costs so great that Chinese leaders ultimately decide that the act is not in their interest. And Xi and his advisers must believe that the United States has not just the capability but also the resolve to carry through on any deterrent threat it makes."

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12.06.2020

"A New Civil Rights Movement Is a Foreign Policy Win"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-06-12/new-civil-rights-movement-foreign-policy-win

Die aktuelle Protestbewegung in den USA sollte nach Ansicht von US-Senator Chris Murphy als Bestätigung der Stärke der amerikanischen Demokratie und als Signal an autoritäre Staaten betrachtet werden. "(…) fears that the new tempest over racial justice is making the United States look weak in the eyes of the world are totally and completely upside down. This moment of reckoning could end up becoming a defining advertisement for the American model, a body blow to autocratic regimes all around the world, and a way for the United States to reclaim much of the moral standing that it has lost during the past three years. (…) however flawed and frail U.S. democracy may be, it is still the world’s standard, and the future of the global fight between self-determination and autocracy largely rests on its success or failure."

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09.06.2020

"The Next Liberal Order - The Age of Contagion Demands More Internationalism, Not Less"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-09/next-liberal-order

Der Politikwissenschaftler G. John Ikenberry erwartet, dass die Coronakrise den Zerfall der globalen Ordnung kurzfristig beschleunigen wird. Die Krise könnte von weitsichtigen Politikern aber auch als Gelegenheit für eine Analyse vergangener Fehler und für einen internationalistischen Neuanfang ergriffen werden, so seine Hoffnung. "Internationalism was not a project of tearing down borders and globalizing the world; it was about managing the growing complexities of economic and security interdependence in the pursuit of national well-being. Today’s liberal democracies are the bankrupt heirs to this project, but with U.S. leadership, they can still turn it around. (…) Past American leaders understood that the global problems of modernity called for a global solution and set about building a worldwide network of alliances and multilateral institutions. But for many observers, the result of these efforts — the liberal international order — has been a failure. (…) Liberal internationalists need to acknowledge these missteps and failures. Under the auspices of the liberal international order, the United States has intervened too much, regulated too little, and delivered less than it promised. But what do its detractors have to offer? Despite its faults, no other organizing principle currently under debate comes close to liberal internationalism in making the case for a decent and cooperative world order that encourages the enlightened pursuit of national interests."

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09.06.2020

"The Rise of Strategic Corruption - How States Weaponize Graft"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-09/rise-strategic-corruption

Philip Zelikow, Eric Edelman, Kristofer Harrison und Celeste Ward Gventer schreiben, dass Korruption heute durch Länder wie China und Russland als effektives Instrument ihrer nationalen Strategien eingesetzt werde. "Countries have done this before, but never on the scale seen today. The result has been a subtle but significant shift in international politics. Rivalries between states have generally been fought over ideologies, spheres of influence, and national interests; side payments of one kind or another were just one tactic among many. Those side payments, however, have become core instruments of national strategy, leveraged to gain specific policy outcomes and to condition the wider political environment in targeted countries. This weaponized corruption relies on a specific form of asymmetry. Although any government can hire covert agents or bribe officials elsewhere, the relative openness and freedom of democratic countries make them particularly vulnerable to this kind of malign influence — and their nondemocratic enemies have figured out how to exploit that weakness."

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05.06.2020

"Foreign Policy By Example"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-05/protests-pandemic-world-watching

Der außenpolitische Einfluss der USA wird Richard Haass zufolge derzeit von drei Krisen geprägt. "The United States is currently experiencing three upheavals simultaneously: the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic aftershocks of that emergency, and the political protests and in some cases violence sparked by the videotape of the killing of George Floyd, a 46-year-old African American man, by police officers in Minneapolis. The three crises of this moment will undoubtedly affect the foreign policy of the United States, which for three-quarters of a century has been the preeminent power in the world. Indeed, recent developments could have a profound and enduring impact on American influence. Unless the United States is able to come together to address its persistent societal and political divides, global prospects for democracy may weaken, friends and allies of the United States may rethink their decision to place their security in American hands, and competitors may dispense with some or all of their traditional caution."

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02.06.2020

"The Overmilitarization of American Foreign Policy"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-02/robert-gates-overmilitarization-american
-foreign-policy

Der frühere US-Verteidigungsminister Robert M. Gates kritisiert in der Debatte über die US-Außenpolitik vor allem deren übermäßige Militarisierung. "Some on the left are convinced that the United States should intervene to safeguard civilians, as in Libya, Sudan, and Syria. Some on the right advocate the use of force against China, Iran, or North Korea or want to provide large-scale military assistance to Ukraine or to the opposition in Syria. A president who ignores one or the other camp is considered either morally bereft or a wimp. (…) What is so striking about the overmilitarization of the period following the Cold War is just how much U.S. policymakers failed to learn the lessons of the seven previous decades. One of the United States’ greatest victories of the twentieth century relied not on military might but on subtler tools of power. (…) U.S. policymakers have many nonmilitary tools at their disposal. But those tools will remain inadequate for the challenges ahead if Washington does not overhaul its outdated national security apparatus."

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28.05.2020

"Build a Better Blob"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-05-28/build-better-blob

Emma Ashford vom Cato Institute widerspricht der Annahme, dass die US-Außenpolitik gegenwärtig vor einer binären Wahl zwischen einem außenpolitischen Establishment diskreditierter Eliten und dem "Trumpismus" stehe. "Defending the Blob as the only game in town is convenient for those who subscribe to its consensus, but it sets up a dangerous dichotomy: to claim that expertise and hawkish liberal interventionism are one and the same leaves nothing but Trumpian incompetence as the alternative. That argument serves only the interests of a failed foreign policy and the people behind it. But in relying on a term as ill-defined as the Blob, even critics of the status quo have inadvertently played into this misleading narrative. For those who seek to reform U.S. foreign policy, the best path may be to send Rhodes’s neologism into retirement. Instead of criticizing the Blob, reformers should work to replace it."

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25.05.2020

"Iraq Can Now Wrest Its Sovereignty From Iran"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2020-05-25/iraq-can-now-wrest-its-sovereignty-iran

Der neue irakische Premierminister Mustafa al-Kadhimi bemühe sich, die von Teheran unterstützten schiitischen Milizen im Land unter Kontrolle zu bringen und so die Abhängigkeit Iraks vom Iran zu verringern, schreibt Hamdi Malik. "Iranian-backed Iraqi militias such as Kataib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, among others, operate outside the jurisdiction of the Iraqi state. They are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella military organization that is nominally under Iraqi command but that in fact plays an integral part in projecting Iranian power throughout the region. Previous Iraqi administrations tried, but ultimately failed, to limit the influence of the armed militias. (…) Recent developments in Iraq and in the wider region suggest that the new prime minister has a much better chance than his predecessors did of curbing the militias’ influence and consequently, that of Iran."

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29.04.2020

"In Defense of the Blob"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-04-29/defense-blob

Hal Brands, Peter Feaver und William Inboden erklären in diesem Beitrag, warum sie die verbreitete Kritik am außenpolitischen Establishment in Washington für ungerechtfertigt halten. "The foreign policy establishment is not a closed cabal, American statecraft has not been a giant failure, and scrapping professionalism for amateurism would be a disaster. In truth, the foreign policy establishment is an American strength rather than weakness. It is more open-minded and accountable than its critics allow. It acts as a storehouse of accumulated professional wisdom, providing intellectual ballast to the ship of state. On balance, the establishment’s practical track record has been impressive, with some well-known fiascos outweighed by many quiet successes. And the current administration’s foreign policy blunders — including in its response to the current pandemic — demonstrate what happens when the establishment’s experience and expertise are rejected. In short, the Blob is not the problem. It is the solution."

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15.04.2020

"The Pandemic Won’t Make China the World’s Leader"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-04-15/pandemic-wont-make-china-worlds-leader

Michael Green und Evan S. Medeiros bezweifeln dagegen, dass China die Coronakrise als "Sprungbrett" für seinen internationalen Aufstieg nutzen kann. "There are real limits to China’s capacity to take advantage of the current crisis — whether through disingenuous propaganda or ineffective global action. And just as the potential for China to benefit from the coronavirus is too easily overstated, the ability of the United States to show global leadership even after its initial missteps is too easily discounted. As deeply flawed as Washington’s response to the pandemic has been so far, the United States’ power — distinct from any particular president — rests on an enduring combination of material capabilities and political legitimacy, and there are few signs that the pandemic is causing power to shift rapidly and permanently to China’s side of the ledger."

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13.04.2020

"Xi Jinping Won the Coronavirus Crisis"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-04-13/xi-jinping-won-coronavirus-crisis

Die chinesische Führung werde aus der Corona-Pandemie innen- und außenpolitisch gestärkt hervorgehen, glaubt Yanzhong Huang vom Council on Foreign Relations. "Two months ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping looked like he would emerge from the novel coronavirus pandemic with his legitimacy and his ambitions for Chinese global leadership in tatters. Today, as the Chinese government lifts its lockdown on the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, Xi can present himself instead as a forceful and triumphant leader on the world stage. (…) In a remarkable turn of events, Xi has not only muddled through the crisis but emerged as a stronger leader at home and abroad. Arguably, he has succeeded because he was able to impose harsh restrictive measures that would be impossible to carry out in Western democracies. And as the death toll increases worldwide, Xi may face more international criticism for his government’s role in setting the pandemic loose — and for likely understating the number of infections and deaths in China. But as COVID-19 ravages one country after another, few can deny that China is fast becoming the safest place on earth. As John Allen of the Brookings Institution reminds us, history will be written by the victors of the COVID-19 crisis. And Xi looks like a winner, at least for now."

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07.04.2020

"The Pandemic Will Accelerate History Rather Than Reshape It"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-04-07/pandemic-will-accelerate-history-rather-
reshape-it

Richard Haass bezweifelt, dass die Coronakrise ein politischer "Wendepunkt" sein wird. Es sei wahrscheinlicher, dass bereits bestehende Trends in der internationalen Politik beschleunigt werden. "(…) the world following the pandemic is unlikely to be radically different from the one that preceded it. COVID-19 will not so much change the basic direction of world history as accelerate it. The pandemic and the response to it have revealed and reinforced the fundamental characteristics of geopolitics today. As a result, this crisis promises to be less of a turning point than a way station along the road that the world has been traveling for the past few decades."

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06.04.2020

"Coronavirus and the Future of Surveillance"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-04-06/coronavirus-and-future-surveillance

Nicholas Wright schreibt, dass sich die asiatischen Überwachungsmaßnahmen zur Bekämpfung der Corona-Pandemie als erfolgreicher herausstellen könnten als die westlichen Strategien. Er empfiehlt eine Adaptierung der asiatischen Maßnahmen in Form einer "demokratischen Überwachung". "Just as the September 11 attacks ushered in new surveillance practices in the United States, the coronavirus pandemic might do the same for many nations around the world. Afflicted countries are all eager to better control their citizens. Every functioning state now has a public health strategy to tackle COVID-19 that emphasizes both monitoring residents and trying to influence their behavior. But neither the United States nor European countries have used the widespread and intrusive surveillance methods applied in East Asia. So far, the Western approach promises to be much less successful than East Asian strategies. (…) Western liberal democracies must be unafraid in trying to sharpen their powers of surveillance for public health purposes. There is nothing oxymoronic about the idea of 'democratic surveillance.' After all, in the past two centuries, the United States and United Kingdom have simultaneously strengthened their democratic institutions while increasing their powers of surveillance. Looking ahead, liberal democracies should identify which methods practiced in East Asia to contain COVID-19 are worthy of emulation and avoid those requiring intrusive surveillance. In particular, Western countries should learn from the speed and scale of interventions in East Asia."

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19.03.2020

"The Real Pandemic Danger Is Social Collapse"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-03-19/real-pandemic-danger-social-collapse

Die Corona-Pandemie könnte zu einem Kollaps der globalen Wirtschaft mit entsprechenden sozialen Folgen führen, warnt Branko Milanovic. "The economic repercussions of the novel coronavirus pandemic must not be understood as an ordinary problem that macroeconomics can solve or alleviate. Rather, the world could be witnessing a fundamental shift in the very nature of the global economy. The immediate crisis is one of both supply and demand. Supply is falling because companies are closing down or reducing their workloads to protect workers from contracting COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. (…) The supply shock is exacerbated by a decrease in demand due to the fact that people are locked in, and many of the goods and services they used to consume are no longer available. (…) The world faces the prospect of a profound shift: a return to natural — which is to say, self-sufficient — economy. That shift is the very opposite of globalization. (…) the human toll of the disease will be the most important cost and the one that could lead to societal disintegration. Those who are left hopeless, jobless, and without assets could easily turn against those who are better off. (…). If governments have to resort to using paramilitary or military forces to quell, for example, riots or attacks on property, societies could begin to disintegrate."

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10.03.2020

"The New Spheres of Influence"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-02-10/new-spheres-influence

Mit dem relativen Niedergang der Hegemonialmacht USA und der neuen Ära der Großmächte kehre auch das Denken in Einflusssphären zurück, schreibt Graham Allison. "American policymakers and analysts are still struggling to come to grips with what this new era means for the U.S. role in the world. Going forward, that role will not only be different; it will also be significantly diminished. While leaders will continue announcing grand ambitions, diminished means will mean diminished results. Unipolarity is over, and with it the illusion that other nations would simply take their assigned place in a U.S.-led international order. For the United States, that will require accepting the reality that there are spheres of influence in the world today — and that not all of them are American spheres. (…) The claim that spheres of influence had been consigned to the dustbin of history assumed that other nations would simply take their assigned places in a U.S.-led order. In retrospect, that assumption seems worse than naive. Yet because many U.S. analysts and policymakers still cling to images of China and Russia formed during this bygone era, their views about what the United States should and should not do continues to reflect a world that has vanished."

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24.02.2020

"Washington Must Protect Syrians Fleeing Idlib"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2020-02-24/washington-must-protect-syrians-fleeing-idlib

Angesichts der neuen Kämpfe in der nordsyrischen Idlib-Provinz sollte die US-Regierung erneut die Einrichtung und Durchsetzung einer "Safe Zone" zum Schutz der Zivilisten vor Ort erwägen, meint der frühere US-Botschafter in Damaskus, Robert S. Ford. "In Syria’s last opposition stronghold, the worst fears of millions of people are coming true. With the help of brutal Russian airstrikes, Syrian government forces have seized about a third of Idlib Province over the last two months, pushing over 900,000 of the region’s 3.5 million people out of their homes and north toward the nearby Turkish border, where another 800,000 displaced people already live in crude, overcrowded camps. The current wave of refugees fleeing Idlib, about 80 percent of whom are women and children, is now the largest exodus of Syria’s nine-year conflict."

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18.02.2020

"Time to Recommit to Syria - A Currency Crisis Has Created an Opportunity to Shape the War’s End"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-02-18/time-recommit-syria

Die US-Regierung sollte die aktuelle Wirtschaftskrise in Syrien nach Ansicht von Jennifer Cafarella vom Institute for the Study of War nutzen, um neuen Druck auf Präsident Assad auszuüben und so den Ausgang des Krieges mitzubestimmen. "Not only has the pro-regime military effort likely reached its peak, but the Syrian economy is collapsing. The Syrian pound fell dramatically from a 2014 rate of roughly 179 to the dollar to more than 1,000 to the dollar by late January. The sharp decline is partly the result of an economic collapse in neighboring Lebanon and partly a function of U.S. sanctions on Iran. (…) The U.S. troops that were redeployed to Iraq should be returned to Syria’s northeastern region. Turkey’s efforts to repel Assad’s forces and protect civilians in northwestern Syria deserve American support. But U.S. efforts are best concentrated in the northeast. In close coordination with its allies, the United States should work to stabilize the region and to assist reconstruction, development, and resettlement efforts. Syria’s northeast has a relatively strong economy compared with economic conditions in regime-controlled areas, and focused investment will help establish it as a model of safety, prosperity, and good governance — a credible alternative to Assad that could help pave the way for a political transition. The United States has a real opportunity to change the course of the brutal Syrian war and, potentially, to shape its endgame."

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10.02.2020

"Too Big to Prevail - The National Security Case for Breaking Up Big Tech"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-02-10/too-big-prevail

Große US-Tech-Unternehmen wie Amazon, Facebook und Alphabet weisen Forderungen nach ihrer Aufspaltung gerne mit dem Argument zurück, dass China das Feld nach einem solchen Schritt dominieren und die USA das globale KI-Wettrüsten verlieren würden. Ganesh Sitaraman hält diese Argumentation nicht für überzeugend: "Far from competing with China, many big technology companies are operating in the country, and their growing entanglements there create vulnerabilities for the United States by exposing its firms to espionage and economic coercion. At home, market concentration in the technology sector also means less competition and therefore less innovation, which threatens to leave the United States in a worse position to compete with foreign rivals. Rather than threatening to undermine national security, breaking up and regulating Big Tech is necessary to protect the United States’ democratic freedoms and preserve its ability to compete with and defend against new great-power rivals."

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10.02.2020

"The Price of Primacy - Why America Shouldn’t Dominate the World"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2020-02-10/price-primacy

Nach Ansicht von Stephen Wertheim vom Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft sollten die USA sich das Scheitern ihrer seit dem Ende des Kalten Kriegs verfolgten Strategie der globalen Dominanz eingestehen. "Washington’s post–Cold War strategy has failed. The United States should abandon the quest for armed primacy in favor of protecting the planet and creating more opportunity for more people. It needs a grand strategy for the many. (…) The time has come to bid good riddance to the unipolar moment. Over three decades, the United States has extended its military deployments and commitments to the breaking point. Its poor stewardship of globalization has left ordinary Americans and the earth’s climate in a similar place. To correct its course, the United States should make the conscious choice to pull back militarily — the better to build a world that is habitable, governable, and prosperous. The United States must use its power and influence to take on challenges that bombs and bullets cannot fix. This is a task for grand strategy in its broadest sense. More than that, it is a task for politics. A grand strategy for the many must be demanded by the many so that their leaders will pursue the common good."

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06.02.2020

"The Digital Dictators - How Technology Strengthens Autocracy"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-02-06/digital-dictators

Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Erica Frantz und Joseph Wright haben untersucht, auf welche Weise autoritäre Regierungen digitale Technologien nutzen, um gesellschaftlichen Widerspruch zu unterdrücken und Protestbewegungen bereits im Keim zu ersticken. "Although technology has helped facilitate protests, today’s digitally savvy authoritarian regimes are using some of the same technological innovations to push back against dangerous popular mobilizations. Our analysis using data from Varieties of Democracy’s data set (which covers 202 countries) and the Mass Mobilization Project shows that autocracies that use digital repression face a lower risk of protests than do those autocratic regimes that do not employ these same tools. Digital repression not only decreases the likelihood that a protest will occur but also reduces the chances that a government will face large, sustained mobilization efforts, such as the 'red shirt' protests in Thailand in 2010 or the anti-Mubarak and antimilitary protests in Egypt in 2011. (…) Our analysis drawing from Varieties of Democracy’s data set suggests that dictatorships that increase their use of digital repression also tend to increase their use of violent forms of repression 'in real life,' particularly torture and the killing of opponents. This indicates that authoritarian leaders don’t replace traditional repression with digital repression. Instead, by making it easier for authoritarian regimes to identify their opposition, digital repression allows them to more effectively determine who should get a knock on the door or be thrown in a cell."

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22.01.2020

"The Cost of an Incoherent Foreign Policy"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2020-01-22/cost-incoherent-foreign-policy

Brett McGurk, der in verschiedenen Positionen für George W. Bush, Barack Obama und Donald Trump tätig war, beklagt, dass das Weiße Haus eine strategisch inkohärente Außenpolitik betreibe und damit den amerikanischen Interessen letztlich schade. Dies zeige sich besonders in der Iran-Politik des US-Präsidenten. "At bottom, Washington’s policy today is defined by incoherence: maximalist ends, minimalist means, false assumptions, few allies, all pressure, no diplomacy. The Middle East in turn is stuck on an escalatory ladder, and Iran’s proxy groups may prove even less predictable with Soleimani dead. (…) Strategy is about choices, priorities, and resource allocation. If Iran is now the priority, then Washington will need to recommit to the Middle East, strengthen its military and diplomatic position in Iraq and elsewhere, and make clear that it’s prepared to defend Gulf partners from Iranian reprisals. If Asia is the priority, however, then Washington cannot credibly pursue what is effectively a regime change policy toward Iran. (…) The current crisis in the Middle East should be a moment to demand a return to the most basic principles of sound foreign policy, with clarity in objectives and the alignment of resources necessary for achieving them. Objectives that cannot be met absent unacceptable tradeoffs, costs, or risks should not be pursued."

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21.01.2020

"The Imperial Presidency Is Alive and Well"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-01-21/imperial-presidency-alive-and-well

Sarah Binder, James Goldgeier und Elizabeth N. Saunders bezweifeln, dass das laufende Amtsenthebungsverfahren gegen US-Präsident Trump vom Kongress genutzt werden wird, um die "imperiale Präsidentschaft" einzuschränken und eine effektive legislative Kontrolle der US-Außenpolitik wiederherzustellen. "Congress remains in a weak position to restrain the president overseas. The Democrats believe that Trump’s efforts to withhold aid to Ukraine until its government agreed to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden constituted an abuse of power and necessitated a vote to impeach the president. But the outcome of the Senate trial will reflect domestic politics, not senators’ views about legislative oversight of foreign affairs. Congress’s inability to pass a veto-proof bill to limit the president’s war powers in Iran, moreover, is one more sign that the balance of power on foreign policy isn’t shifting back toward the legislative branch."

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17.01.2020

"Bashar al-Assad’s Hollow Victory"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2020-01-17/bashar-al-assads-hollow-victory

Trotz ihrer militärischen Erfolge im Bürgerkrieg sei die Assad-Regierung in Syrien heute schwächer als je zuvor, schreibt Lina Khatib vom britischen Thinktank Chatham House. "(…) though Assad might declare victory, he would do so as a bit player in the story of his own triumph. Through Syria’s travails, Russia will have risen to become the war’s most influential external actor, and Iran will have guaranteed its enduring influence in the Levant. The Assad regime will find itself less a partner than a client, its survival dependent on the support of these two external backers. (…) External actors are not the only interested parties to whom Assad will owe his political life. Throughout the conflict, the regime has had to rely on a large network of nonstate and auxiliary actors, some armed and some civilian, to circumvent international sanctions in business transactions, assist in battle, and perform state functions, such as delivering services where the regime has little access or capacity. These actors have profited from the protracted conflict, becoming ever more ambitious and powerful, such that now the tables have turned and the regime has become dependent on them for survival. These profiteers have become the de facto authorities that are performing the role of state institutions, but at an increasingly extortionate price."

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08.01.2020

"The New Anti-Americanism"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-01-08/new-anti-americanism

Die Umfragen zeigen nach Ansicht von Richard Wike vom Pew Research Center, dass mit dem Ansehen Donald Trumps auch das Image der USA gelitten habe. Die Zahlen seien ähnlich negativ wie zum Ende der zweiten Amtszeit von George W. Bush, jedoch mit unterschiedlichen Vorzeichen: "When anti-Americanism reached its high point during the Bush administration, the United States was seen as an unchecked superpower, unilaterally pursuing its interests, and unconstrained by the international norms and institutions it had played the lead role in constructing. In the Trump era, by contrast, critics are less concerned about the exercise of unrivaled U.S. power than they are about a U.S. retreat — from both global leadership and liberal democracy. (…) Gone are the days when critics assailed the United States for trying to be the world’s policeman. Now they worry about a disengaged superpower thinking only of 'America first.'"

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30.12.2019

"Is a New Nuclear Age Upon Us?"

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-12-30/new-nuclear-age-upon-us

Die beiden Politikwissenschaftler Nicholas L. Miller und Vipin Narang fürchten, dass 2019 angesichts des unaufhaltsam wirkenden Kollapses der internationalen Rüstungskontrolle als negativer Wendepunkt des Atomzeitalters in die Geschichte eingehen könnte. "Over the past year, Washington has not only faced nuclear crises with North Korea, Russia, and Iran, as predicted; it has also watched as nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan stumbled to the brink of all-out war and a host of U.S. allies began to rethink their nuclear options. Unless governments in Washington and elsewhere act quickly to reverse course, future scholars may look back on 2019 as the turning point from an era of relative calm to one of intense nuclear competition and proliferation — the dawn of a dangerous new nuclear age. At the top of a long list of worrying developments is the heightened risk of a nuclear arms race between Washington and its most powerful rivals."

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