US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

The New Statesman


»http://www.newstatesman.com«

22.12.2020

"Azerbaijan’s difficult road to reconciliation after victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh war"

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2020/12/azerbaijan-s-difficult-road-reconciliation-after-victor
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Der vom Sieg in Bergkarabach ausgelösten "nationalistischen Euphorie" in Aserbaidschan könnte bald die "Desillusionierung" folgen, schreibt Ido Vock nach seinem Besuch im Land. "Azerbaijan won the war. Winning the peace may be tougher. Nationalistic euphoria could rapidly tip into disillusionment once the arduous process of resettling hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijani IDPs into Nagorno-Karabakh, one of the most heavily mined regions in the world, begins. 'It will take time. Let's be realistic,' Hajiyev says. The challenges Azerbaijan faces in reintegrating the Armenians it claims as its citizens are even more daunting. It will have to overcome three decades of ethnic hatred its government is largely responsible for stoking. Baku will need to come up with mechanisms to guarantee the physical security and cultural autonomy of Armenians, a point on which officials are light on details."

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02.10.2020

"Crisis in the Caucasus: how Nagorno-Karabakh poses a challenge for Nato"

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2020/10/crisis-caucasus-how-nagorno-karabakh-poses-challenge-na
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Der aktuelle Konflikt in Bergkarabach verdeutlicht nach Ansicht von Ido Vock, wie überholt die Militärallianzen des Kalten Krieges heute seien. "For perhaps the first time in recent history, western European countries such as France have begun offering cautious political support to the same side of a military conflict as Russia and Iran (both allied with Armenia) against the ally of a Nato member (Turkey). The conflict could end in the absurdity of aligning Nato members with different sides, or even Nato members against each other – though not for the first time, as the ongoing stand-off between Turkey and Greece in the eastern Mediterranean reminds us. Yet again, a conflict in Nato’s back yard positions Turkey against much of western Europe. (…) Emmanuel Macron was widely criticised for terming Nato 'brain dead' in an interview last year. Macron’s reasoning was that there was no coordination of strategic decision-making between the US and its Nato allies, in addition to 'uncoordinated aggressive action' by Turkey. Who, looking at the debacle in Nagorno-Karabakh, could claim that Macron’s logic has not held up?"

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08.01.2020

"Iran and Saudi Arabia are locked in a Cold War-style stand-off – but the situation is even more volatile"

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/2020/01/iran-and-saudi-arabia-are-locked-cold-war-style-stand-situatio
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Jeremy Cliffe stellt die aktuelle Krise im Nahen Osten in den Kontext des neuen Kalten Kriegs zwischen dem Iran und Saudi-Arabien. "Like the two superpowers in the postwar years, Riyadh and Tehran are split by a major ideological divide (Sunni versus Shia branches of Islam) and are relatively evenly matched economically and militarily. The parallels are not perfect. But they offer a reference point for the increasingly fragile geopolitics of the region. The Middle Eastern cold war resembles the original one in three important ways. First, it is fuelled by a blend of ideological conviction and brute power politics. (…) Second, Iran and Saudi Arabia are both acting out of fear of encirclement, just as the US and the Soviet Union did. (…) Third, the two regional powers fight through espionage, retaliatory provocations and proxies, just as America and the Soviets did in Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan. (…) Unlike the original Cold War, the Middle Eastern cold war is multidimensional, is more likely to escalate and, thanks especially to the interference of outside powers, is less predictable. It is more volatile and thus more prone to transformation. Such is the backdrop to Soleimani’s killing, which could have any number of outcomes. One is that, counter-intuitively, it calms tensions. (…) Another possible outcome, however, is escalation. Iran could extend its grip over Iraq and lash out at Saudi Arabia, as an American proxy, in revenge for Soleimani’s killing. That could in turn drag in other players."

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13.02.2019

"Iran: the revolution that shook the world"

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2019/02/iran-revolution-shook-world

40 Jahre nach der Islamischen Revolution in Iran blickt Michael Axworthy, Autor des Buches "Revolutionary Iran", auf ein Ereignis zurück, das die Region nachhaltig erschüttert hat. "Since 1979, despite much speculation and predictions of its imminent demise, and despite the vicious eight-year war with Iraq and various other attempts at regime change, the Islamic Republic has survived, proving more stable than expected. It is reasonable to make a connection between this stability and the Islamic part, unlike the anti-clerical or secular regimes set up by the French and Russian revolutions. Islam has given the regime deeper ideological roots in domestic society than the innovative ideologies of the Jacobins and Bolsheviks achieved. Islam is more embedded in people’s lives and could have sustained a more liberal, democratic regime than the current autocratic form of government. But those at the top run a risk. Shiism, more than any other form of Islam, is traditionally, acutely, almost obsessively sensitive to the abuse of political power."

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