US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

The Jamestown Foundation


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16.12.2020

"Baku’s Success in Using Turkish Drones Raises Question: Could Ukraine Use Them Against Russia in Crimea?"

https://jamestown.org/program/bakus-success-in-using-turkish-drones-raises-question-could-ukraine-use-the
m-against-russia-in-crimea/

Nach dem erfolgreichen Einsatz türkischer Drohnen durch Aserbaidschan in Bergkarabach berichtet Paul Goble, dass die Ukraine diese Taktik offenbar für militärische Operationen gegen russische Truppen auf der Krim in Betracht ziehe. "(…) Vadim Nozdrya, who heads the Ukrainian arms trade state committee Ukrspetseksport, has announced that Kyiv is prepared to purchase from Turkey 48 of these battle-tested UAVs (Milliyet), December 4). That news is undoubtedly prompting analysts in Moscow to consider how Ukraine could eventually use such drones to threaten Russian control of occupied Crimea or Donbas and what Moscow needs to do in response. Nozdrya’s words come on the heels of a declaration by Igor Fomenko, a top executive at Ukraine’s military industry firm Ukroboronprom, that Kyiv might be able to produce 'its own analogue' to the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 in a year (Regnum, November 30). Together, those pronouncements suggest Kyiv has absorbed the lessons from the recent fighting in Karabakh and decided to move forward more rapidly on its UAV strategy and defense cooperation with Turkey (see EDM, November 16). That motivation by itself — even before any tangible changes become apparent on the ground — is likely to set off alarm bells in Russia, whose forces will be the most likely targets of Turkish drones deployed by Ukraine."

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22.09.2020

"Xinjiang’s System of Militarized Vocational Training Comes to Tibet"

https://jamestown.org/program/jamestown-early-warning-brief-xinjiangs-system-of-militarized-vocational-tr
aining-comes-to-tibet/

China wendet die systematische Einweisung hunderttausender Menschen in Massenarbeitslager nicht nur in der Xinjiang-Provinz, sondern auch in Tibet an, so das Fazit eines neuen Berichts der Jamestown Foundation. "In 2019 and 2020, the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) introduced new policies to promote the systematic, centralized, and large-scale training and transfer of 'rural surplus laborers' to other parts of the TAR, as well as to other provinces of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In the first 7 months of 2020, the region had trained over half a million rural surplus laborers through this policy. This scheme encompasses Tibetans of all ages, covers the entire region, and is distinct from the coercive vocational training of secondary students and young adults reported by exile Tibetans (RFA, October 29, 2019). (…) This draconian scheme shows a disturbing number of close similarities to the system of coercive vocational training and labor transfer established in Xinjiang. The fact that Tibet and Xinjiang share many of the same social control and securitization mechanisms — in each case introduced under administrations directed by Chen Quanguo — renders the adaptation of one region’s scheme to the other particularly straightforward."

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17.09.2020

"Moscow Divided on When or Even Whether Lukashenka Must Go"

https://jamestown.org/program/moscow-divided-on-when-or-even-whether-lukashenka-must-go/

Paul Goble berichtet, dass es in russischen Führungskreisen unterschiedliche Meinungen über den Umgang mit der Krise in Weißrussland gebe. "Obviously, the longer Lukashenka can resist the protesters, the greater the chance he will be able to ride out the current challenges from the streets. At the same time, the longer the protesters remain in the streets, the greater is the chance that he will ultimately have to give way or be forced to. But Moscow’s interest on the timing of his departure depends on what it decides to do next. If Russia annexes Belarus, the answer could be entirely different than if it instead seeks to run that country as a controlled satellite that maintains a legal veneer of independence. Consequently, the debate in the Russian capital about Lukashenka’s exit is, in fact, a debate about what the Russian government can and should do."

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29.06.2020

"The Houthi Art of War: Why They Keep Winning in Yemen"

https://jamestown.org/program/hot-issue-the-houthi-art-of-war-why-they-keep-winning-in-yemen/

Nach fünf Jahren Krieg in Jemen seien die Huthi-Rebellen alles andere als geschlagen, stellt Michael Horton fest. "The defeat of the Houthis has, according to many analysts and think tanks, been imminent for much of the past five years. The better equipped militaries of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and their various proxy forces were supposed to rapidly defeat the Houthis and their allies. Great emphasis was placed on the technical superiority of the Western-equipped militaries of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Yet despite the expenditure of vast sums on weapons and materiel by Riyadh and the Abu Dhabi, the Houthis have consolidated their control of northwest Yemen and are poised to capture the governorate of Marib. The Houthis’ ability to defy and defeat technologically superior forces is a reminder that, as the military strategist and fighter pilot Colonel John Boyd argued, 'machines don’t fight wars, terrain doesn’t fight wars. Humans fight wars. You must get into the minds of humans. That’s where the battles are won.'"

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19.12.2018

"Burkina Faso and the Looming Jihadist Threat to Coastal West Africa"

https://jamestown.org/program/burkina-faso-and-the-looming-jihadist-threat-to-coastal-west-africa/

Teile Westafrikas haben sich Jacob Zenn zufolge In den letzten zehn Jahren zu einer Brutstätte des dschihadistischen Extremismus entwickelt. Die bisher relativ friedlichen Küstenstaaten Elfenbeinküste, Ghana, Togo und Benin könnten nun durch den "spillover" der Gewalt im Süden Burkina Fasos ebenfalls destabilisiert werden, so Zenn. "This article examines the security situation in southern Burkina Faso, which shares borders with 'peaceful' countries on the West African coast, such as Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin. Those countries have largely been spared from jihadist violence, with the exception of the 2016 Grand Bassam attack in Côte d’Ivoire that left 16 dead. Now, however, they appear to be on the verge of suffering from jihadist spillover from Burkina Faso into the northern regions of their countries. This article first reviews recent attacks that have occurred in southern Burkina Faso and discusses the networks of groups operating there. It then highlights certain structural factors in coastal West African countries that jihadists could exploit to launch attacks similar to what they have done in Nigeria, if not Burkina Faso and Mali as well."

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