US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Council on Foreign Relations


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"U.S. Troop Withdrawal From Afghanistan: What Are Biden's Options?"

Gemäß eines Abzugsabkommens, das die Vereinigten Staaten und die Taliban im Februar 2020 unterzeichneten, sollten bis zum 1. Mai sämtliche US-Truppen Afghanistan verlassen haben, erläutert Max Boot. Jüngste Aussagen des Pentagon-Sprechers John Kirby hätten jedoch Zweifel aufkommen lassen, ob bis dahin tatsächlich alle US-Truppen abziehen werden. "If the Taliban doesn't agree to an extension (the odds are that it won't), the Biden administration will be left with the unpalatable choices of pulling out anyway - risking a collapse of the Afghan state - or remaining embroiled in the 'forever war.' (...) The Taliban is likely to call this a betrayal of the agreement and respond by targeting U.S. and other international forces to try to raise public pressure in the West for their removal. But if the Taliban fails to achieve its goals through these tactics, it could eventually return to the negotiating table."

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"Five Foreign Policy Stories to Watch in 2021"

James M. Lindsay empfiehlt, in diesem Jahr fünf spezielle außenpolitische Themen im Blick zu behalten. "Two thousand twenty had its fair share of big news stories. The same will be true of 2021. Some of those stories no doubt will surprise. Few experts a year ago were warning of an impending pandemic. Maybe a year from now everyone will be talking about cascading debt defaults in emerging market economies or a mass terrorist attack that surpasses September 11. Or maybe not. As Yogi Berra apparently didn’t say, 'It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.' But a fair number of significant world events are ones we know are coming — call them the 'known knowns.' Here are five known stories to follow closely in 2021. Any one of them could turn into the dominant news event of the year — or fade away. We’ll know in twelve months which will sizzle and which will fizzle."

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"The Arab Spring at Ten Years: What’s the Legacy of the Uprisings?"

Zehn Jahre nach dem Ausbruch des Arabischen Frühlings hat Kali Robinson einen Blick auf das Erbe der Revolte in der Region geworfen. "Ten years on, the lives of people in Arab Spring countries have improved in certain aspects but worsened in others. visualizes the changes in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen."

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"Academic Webinar: The Road to Peace in Afghanistan"

Rina Amiri vom Center for Global Affairs der New York University hat sich in diesem Webinar des Council on Foreign Relations mit dem Friedensprozess in Afghanistan beschäftigt. "Rina Amiri (…) discusses prospects for peace in Afghanistan, including the fate of the U.S.-Taliban peace deal, Afghan women’s roles in peace and security, and the outlook for intra-Afghan negotiations."

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"Right-Wing Extremists: A Looming Threat to the U.S. Election"

Bruce Hoffman hält Warnungen vor rechtsextremer Gewalt nach einer möglichen Wahlniederlage von US-Präsident Trump für durchaus berechtigt. "The problem is that we are not talking about a monolithic or even coherent movement but myriad national, state, and local groups, cells, collectives, and other entities with varying degrees of organization and cohesion. Many of them are heavily armed and espouse a spectrum of white-supremacist, anti-government, pro-Second-Amendment, and anarchist views. According to one estimate, there are some three hundred different militia groups, with perhaps as many as fifteen thousand to twenty-thousand well-armed and often military-trained members, active in every state of the union."

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"France vs. Turkey: A Showdown in the Mediterranean Is Brewing"

Frankreich habe sich im Konflikt zwischen der Türkei und Griechenland im östlichen Mittelmeer als Vertreter der griechischen und zypriotischen Interessen aufgestellt, schreibt Henri J. Barkey. Zuletzt habe die Strategie durchaus Wirkung gezeigt: "Macron’s forceful intervention may be having its desired effect. He is pressing the Europeans to take a stand as German efforts at mediation have not had much impact. European leaders will consider imposing sanctions on Turkey in their upcoming September 24 summit. Erdogan, in messages to the outside world, has of late softened his stand, suggesting that he is open to negotiations with all parties except Cyprus, which Turkey does not recognize. (…) The jury may still be out on Macron’s step into the leadership vacuum; Turks have backed down for the moment. Back in 1996, when Greece and Turkey almost went to war over two nondescript rocks in the Aegean, Washington had stepped in to diffuse the situation. Today, not only is Washington absent, but President Donald J. Trump is also seen as having emboldened Erdogan. In risking a showdown with Erdogan, Macron at least deserves recognition for trying."

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"The UN at Seventy-Five: How to Make it Relevant Again"

75 Jahre nach ihrer Gründung hat die UNO nach Ansicht des Council on Foreign Relations an Relevanz eingebüßt. Drei aktuelle Initiativen könnten demnach dazu beitragen, diesen Trend wieder umzukehren. "As the United Nations looks to its next seventy-five years, three initiatives stand out in their importance: creating an international antivirus consortium, protecting biodiversity, and strengthening warning protocols within UN agencies. (…) There is no longer any doubt that three primary threats endanger the existence of humanity: climate change, infectious disease, and nuclear weapons. They differ in their origins and degree of immediacy, yet they share one commonality: only global, multilateral efforts can reduce their destructive potential. No other forum is more suitable for such efforts than the United Nations. The United Nations can prioritize these threats by debating and drafting a resolution — symbolically numbered 0000 — identifying them as the core global challenges."

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"Have the Latest Elections Strengthened Iran’s Hard-Liners?"

Ray Takeyh betrachtet die geringe Beteiligung an den Parlamentswahlen in Iran als Symptom einer Legitimitätskrise des Regimes in Teheran. Der klare Wahlsieg der Konservativen habe die Machtposition der iranischen Hardliner im System allerdings konsolidiert. "Turnout was only 42 percent, according to official reports. This marks the lowest participation in parliamentary elections in the last four decades and presents a serious crisis of legitimacy for a regime that likes to boast of its popular appeal. (…) As the hard-liners consolidate their power, Iran is less likely to compromise on core issues such as its nuclear energy program — which Western states say is cover to develop nuclear weapons — and regional military activities. The parliament has a limited role in foreign relations, and these elections will have little impact on Iran’s regional policies. But as the more moderate elements are purged from the political system, Iran will likely be led by conservatives who have little incentive to compromise on the regional policies that they view as successful."

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"The Corrosion of World Order in the Age of Donald Trump"

Terrence Mullan berichtet über eine Regionalkonferenz des Council of Councils (CoC), auf der Experten über die Ursachen und Hintergründe des Niedergangs der internationalen Ordnung im "Trump-Zeitalter" diskutierten. "Forty-one delegates representing twenty-two think tanks in twenty-one countries discussed the weaponization of economic interdependence, the renewed push for European strategic autonomy, and other global governance issues. The pessimistic tenor of those discussions has only been reinforced at more recent international gatherings, including last month’s World Economic Forum and the Observer Research Foundation’s Raisina Dialogue. Four sobering takeaways emerge from these international conversations: 1. The Global Economic Order is Broken (…) 2. With Friends Like Trump, Who Needs Enemies? (…) 3. The Future of EU Regulatory Power Looks Bright, but It Lacks a Common Vision (…) 4. The Corrosion of Trust Will Hamper International Cooperation (…) Given these inauspicious trends, can the world still work together to address today’s most pressing global challenges? Participants at the CoC conference struggled to be optimistic, given the collective efforts needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals, prevent economic fragmentation, and achieve so much else. Many hoped that even as Trump retreated from the world, nations in Western Europe and Asia might fill the breach, assuming a greater share of global leadership."

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"The Potential for the Coronavirus in Africa"

John Campbell weist darauf hin, dass es in Afrika bisher keine gemeldeten Coronavirus-Fälle gebe. "With more than a billion people undergoing rapid urbanization, stuck with weak healthcare systems, and with growing economic ties to China (it is estimated that there are more than a million Chinese immigrants on the continent) Africa would appear to be highly vulnerable to the spread of the coronavirus. Ethiopian Airlines continues its China service, and some 1,500 passengers arrive in Addis from China every day, many of whom transit to other African destinations. Yet, as of February 12, there have been no reported cased of the disease in Africa. Nor have there been any cases in South America. It may be that the virus is present but thus far has been undetected. Africa’s weak medical infrastructure makes detection of mild forms of the disease especially difficult. There may be other factors at play specific to the virus. For example, there has been media speculation that the continent’s hot and humid climate is inhospitable to the disease. On the other hand, there are many parts of Africa where the climate is temperate, and two major international Airports — Johannesburg and Addis — which both serve cities of about 8 million each, including a significant slum population, enjoy cool, dry climates. Still, neither city has reported any cases of corona virus."

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"Campaign Foreign Policy Roundup: President Trump’s New Land-Mine Policy"

Die von Präsident Trump verkündete Aufhebung des Landminenverbots für das US-Militär stößt bei den demokratischen Präsidentschaftskandidaten auf klare Ablehnung. "Most of the Democratic challengers were quick to condemn the Trump administration’s policy shift and vowed to reinstate the Obama policy should they make it to the White House. (…) Less clear is which, if any of the candidates, would sign the Ottawa Treaty. In practice, it hardly matters. The odds that any Democratic president could get the sixty-seven votes needed to secure the Senate’s advice and consent is vanishingly small."

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"Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia"

Jonathan Masters mit einem aktuellen Überblicksbericht über den Konflikt in der Ostukraine. "Ukraine has long played an important, yet sometimes overlooked, role in the global security order. Today, the country appears to be on the front lines of a renewed great-power rivalry that many analysts say will dominate international relations in the decades ahead."

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"Brexit Is Here: The EU and UK Must Brace for the Consequences"

Eine Reihe von Experten erläutern in diesem Beitrag des Council of Councils (CoC), welche außen- und sicherheitspolitischen Konsequenzen der am 31. Januar offiziell vollzogene Austritt Großbritanniens aus der EU haben könnte. Thomas Raines von Chatham House analysiert: "The first building block of a post-Brexit UK foreign policy should be a new working relationship with the EU, which will continue to be the country’s largest trading partner. A pragmatic foreign policy partnership is a central part of this: Close cooperation in fields such as law enforcement and on issues including sanctions and climate change will be mutually beneficial. But building a comprehensive new relationship will take time. (…) More broadly, the UK could seek to recalibrate its diplomatic relationships. It could try to expand the E3 format with France and Germany, or develop more initiatives with like-minded middle powers such as Canada and Japan. Avoiding being caught between the United States and Europe will be a recurring challenge, particularly if President Donald J. Trump wins a second term."

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"Top Conflicts to Watch in 2020: A Mass Casualty Terrorist Attack on the United States or a Treaty Ally"

US-Sicherheitsexperten, die sich am Preventive Priorities Survey des Council on Foreign Relations beteiligt haben, erwarten in diesem Jahr einen massiven Terroranschlag in den USA oder auf einen engen US-Verbündeten. "Among the highest rated risks in this year’s Preventive Priorities Survey was a mass casualty terrorist attack on the United States or a treaty ally directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization. This ranking underscores an important trend in the United States’ nearly twenty-year war on terrorism. That is, the number and diversity of terrorist threats facing the United States and its allies has not diminished — it may have actually increased — despite concerted national and international counterterrorism efforts. (…) Violence could take the form of a command-driven attack, where the Islamic State’s leadership directly orders an attack against a specific target, or an inspired attack whereby there is no command-and-control relationship between the terrorist group and the perpetrator. In the latter case, the perpetrator is simply inspired to commit a violent act on his or her own. Al-Qaeda, meanwhile, is actively attempting to fill the vacuum in Syria created by the Islamic State’s defeat, as it also patiently awaits the outcome of U.S. peace talks with the Taliban and America’s eventual withdrawal from Afghanistan."

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Claire Felter, Jonathan Masters und Mohammed Aly Sergie mit einem aktuellen Porträt der radikalislamischen Terrorgruppe Al-Shabab. "Al-Shabab, or 'the Youth,' is an Islamist insurgent group based in Somalia. It once held sway over the capital of Mogadishu and large portions of the Somali countryside, but in recent years an African Union–led military campaign has pushed it back from major population centers. However, the insurgency remains the principal security challenge in war-torn Somalia, and continues to mount lethal attacks against Western forces and civilians in the region."

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"Top Conflicts to Watch in 2020: A Crisis Between Russia and Ukraine"

Der Council on Foreign Relations hat in seiner jährlichen Umfrage amerikanische Sicherheitsexperten nach ihren Prognosen für das Jahr 2020 befragt. Viele Fachleute befürchten demnach eine schwere Krise zwischen Russland und der Ukraine. Thomas Graham hält diese Sorge allerdings für übertrieben: "One of the highest rated concerns in this year’s Preventive Priorities Survey was the outbreak of a severe crisis between Russia and Ukraine following increased fighting in eastern Ukraine, and/or a major military clash in contested areas. In contrast to the results of the survey, I would argue that the likelihood of such a crisis is actually low. For the past several months, Russia and Ukraine have pursued confidence-building measures, such as prisoner exchanges and separation of forces in eastern Ukraine (the Donbas), to reduce the risk of serious conflict. Moscow has little interest in escalating the fighting: instead, it is focused on persuading the European Union to ease sanctions that have been dragging its economy. Kyiv has little capacity for a sustained military effort and worries about whether Europe would have its back, especially as French President Emmanuel Macron appears intent on pursuing détente with Russia. The Donbas separatists themselves have little room for maneuver, absent strong backing from Moscow."

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"Death of Iranian General Soleimani Provokes Muted Reaction in Africa’s Giants"

In Afrika gehören Nigeria und Südafrika zu den wichtigsten Partnern Irans. John Campbell und Jack McCaslin berichten, dass die Reaktionen der beiden afrikanischen "Giganten" auf den Tod von General Soleimani trotzdem verhalten ausgefallen seien. "Though the Nigerian inspector general of police has put his forces on 'red alert,' likely fearing action by the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN) or other alleged Iranian proxies, there has been no apparent word from the government. In South Africa, the fiercest reaction came from the African National Congress (ANC), while Naledi Pandor, the South African foreign minister, called for calm. (…) The bottom line is that if there are attacks on American interests in West Africa as a result of the Soleimani killing — and that is a big 'if' — they are likely to come from Iranian elements, not from indigenous African groups. It is noteworthy that, thus far, there have been no mass anti-American demonstrations in West Africa following Soleimani’s killing."

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Ten Most Significant World Events in 2019

In seinem Jahresrückblick nennt James M. Lindsay zehn der wichtigsten politischen Ereignisse, die seiner Erwartung nach auch 2020 prägen werden. "Several of these stories will continue into 2020. 10. North Korea-U.S. Nuclear Talks Stall. (…) 9. Brexit Upends British Politics. (…) 8. The U.S.-China Trade War Continues. (…) 7. The Central American Migrant Exodus Grows. (…) 6. Tensions Flare in the Persian Gulf. (…) 5. The Amazon Burns. (…) 4. India Embraces Hindu Nationalism. (…) 3. The United States Ends Its Support for the Syrian Kurds. (…) 2. The U.S. House Impeaches President Donald Trump.  (…) 1. Protestors Take to the Street. 'The Year of Protests' may be the best summary for 2019."

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"Year in Review: Content Moderation on Social Media Platforms in 2019"

Lauren Dudley vom Council on Foreign Relations wirft in ihrer Jahresrückschau einen besonderen Blick auf die Bemühungen von Regierungen und Tech-Unternehmen, die Veröffentlichung von Inhalten in Sozialen Medien zu regulieren. "The spread of disinformation, misinformation, hate speech, and violent and extremist content on social media platforms in 2019 prompted heated debate over how tech companies and governments should approach content moderation. These issues will continue to play out in 2020, with important social and political consequences."

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"Can the Paris Summit End Ukraine’s War?"

Robert McMahon mit einem Hintergrundbericht zum heutigen Ukraine-Gipfel im Normandie-Format in Paris. "Prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough are slim, experts say. More likely to happen at Paris is progress on smaller steps such as facilitating prisoner exchanges, easing movement across the makeshift front lines, and opening economic links with the separatist enclaves. The talks will also mark the first face-to-face meeting between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which will be closely watched for any progress on allowing Russian natural gas to transit through Ukraine. The countries’ current transit deal expires on December 31."

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"Who’s Who in Northern Syria?"

Lindsay Maizland stellt in diesem Überblicksartikel anlässlich der türkischen Offensive in Nordsyrien noch einmal die dort aktiven Konfliktparteien vor. "In a new escalation in Syria’s civil war, Turkey has launched a military operation aimed at removing Kurdish fighters from areas in northern Syria near the Turkish border. Here’s what you need to know about the many actors in the region (...). Turkish forces have been bolstered by several mainly Arab militias. The Free Syrian Army (now named the National Army), the main opposition group since the start of the civil war, has offered to dedicate fourteen thousand rebels to assist in the Turkish operation. It claims to have eighty thousand fighters throughout Syria. Smaller rebel groups also support Turkey."

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"Halle Shooting: The New Terrorism Reality"

Nach dem Anschlag von Halle stellen Bruce Hoffman und Jacob Ware fest, dass Terroranschläge im Westen mittlerweile überwiegend von rechtsextremistischen Tätern verübt werden. "There are no easy fixes to this intensifying problem. There is not always an organized group to investigate, leader to target, or single online community to de-platform. Moreover, far-right extremism is often more transnational than is commonly assumed. An effective response will require greater devotion and resources from domestic intelligence agencies — indeed, this is already occurring in places — as well as persistent international collaboration. Improved law enforcement training and awareness are also essential. As both community observers and first responders, law enforcement agencies provide both the first and last lines of defense, so they need to be well-prepared and ready to act."

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"Central America’s Turbulent Northern Triangle"

Die Länder im nördlichen Dreieck Zentralamerikas leiden Amelia Cheatham zufolge unter chronischer Armut, Gewalt und Korruption. Das Resultat sei ein wachsende Migrationsbewegung von Menschen, die vor allem in die USA gelangen wollen. "Migrants, including a growing number of women and children, are fleeing the troubled region in record numbers. On average, about 265,000 people have left annually in recent years, and this number is on track to more than double in 2019. Some migrants seek asylum in other parts of Latin America or in Europe. However, most endure a treacherous journey north through Mexico to the United States. (...) The region is among the poorest in the Western Hemisphere. In 2018, all three countries ranked in the bottom quartile for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita among Latin American states. Roughly 60 percent of Hondurans and Guatemalans live below their countries’ national poverty lines, according to the most recent data, compared to 30 percent of all Latin Americans. (...) Over the past twenty years, the United States has taken significant steps to try to help Northern Triangle countries manage irregular migration flows by fighting economic insecurity and violence. However, critics say U.S. policies have been largely reactive, prompted by upturns in migration to the U.S.-Mexico border."

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"Patriot Games: President Trump Again Puts the 'Nation' in United Nations"

In seiner mittlerweile dritten Rede vor der UN-Generalversammlung habe US-Präsident Trump erneut die Bedeutung der Nationalstaaten in der internationalen Ordnung hervorgehoben, berichtet Stewart M. Patrick. "(...) Trump reinforced the central theme of his first two appearances: The road to international peace and prosperity requires collaboration among fiercely independent, sovereign nations that are vigilant in pursuing their national interests and determined to combat the siren songs of 'globalism' and 'socialism.' The president trumpeted the spirit of 'national renewal' he had launched at home, and he encouraged peoples of all nations to embrace their own forms patriotism, by cherishing their unique histories, cultures, and destinies. At the same time, he offered zero guidance about how multilateral cooperation could actually emerge from these competing nationalisms. Nor did he explain why any other UN member states would want to follow the U.S. lead on Iran, given his own administration’s repeated defection from major international initiatives over the past three years. In contrast to his earlier, bombastic appearances before the United Nations, Trump’s tone was solemn, even-keeled, even reassuring."

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"Scale and Nature of Attacks on Saudi Oil Makes This One Different"

Amy M. Jaffe erläutert, warum der Angriff auf die beiden saudi-arabischen Ölanlagen eine größere Bedeutung hat als ähnliche Vorfälle in der Vergangenheit. "Saudi Arabia and Iran have been engaged in a deadly proxy war for a number of years, and their respective proxies engaged in oil sabotage as far back as early 2018. More recently, Iranian-backed proxies have hassled international oil tankers, bombed an ExxonMobil operations center in Southern Iraq, targeted a key Saudi pipeline, and attacked a strategically important oil storage hub in the United Arab Emirates. These previous incidents, while signaling the vast vulnerabilities of the Gulf region’s massive energy operations, failed to rise to an emergency because the damages involved were relatively easy to ameliorate. Many considered these early aggressions as an ominous warning sign that more serious attacks could come if tensions continued to escalate. That day has arrived. (...) The attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais seem to give Iran several benefits, including putting the Saudi regime under greater financial pressure, creating a vast political dilemma for President Donald Trump in an election year, and enhancing perceptions of Iran’s hard power in the region."

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"Time to Reboot the Mistake-Riddled U.S.-Taliban Peace Talks"

Auch Max Boot hält einen Neustart der Verhandlungen mit den Taliban für angebracht. Allerdings müssten dabei drei "kritische Fehler" der ersten Gesprächsrunden korrigiert werden. "Mistake #1: Negotiating Without the Afghan Government. (...) The danger of this approach is that it would abandon a U.S. ally in Kabul while leaving the Taliban free to step up their offensive once U.S. troops depart. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani might have suffered the same fate as President Mohammad Najibullah, who was overthrown and eventually killed after the Soviets withdrew their troops in 1989. (...) Mistake #2: No Cease-fire. Another mistake that the administration made was not to insist on a cease-fire as the price of a U.S. troop drawdown. (...) Mistake #3: Signaling Total Troop Withdrawal. It is entirely possible, of course, that the Taliban will not agree to any of these terms. But better no deal than a bad deal. Even without an accord, the United States can probably afford to reduce its troop presence in Afghanistan to around the level — roughly nine thousand troops — from when Trump entered office. (...) President Barack Obama’s troop pullout from Iraq in 2011 offers a cautionary lesson: the resulting power vacuum led to the rise of Islamic State and necessitated the return of U.S. forces."

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"Five Jeez: Five Security Arguments Against Huawei 5G"

Jason Healey erläutert fünf Argumente, die seiner Ansicht nach gegen eine Beteiligung des chinesischen Unternehmens Huawei am Ausbau der 5G-Netze im Westen sprechen. "The first argument is not about risk, but justice. Huawei allegedly stole intellectual property from rivals, such as Cisco, getting subsidized R&D through online theft. Huawei should not profit from the fruits of its crimes (...). The second argument is that Huawei routers may have intentional back doors to allow the Chinese government access. (...) Not to get technical about the third argument, but Huawei code is crap. (...) The worst case, the fourth argument, is that Huawei has not just a backdoor but a kill switch. Huawei gear around the world would operate as normal, year after year, until a precipitating crisis. This risk seems distant as China is today only a competitor, not yet an enemy. But 5G will have a central role in the American economy and society, so the risk, while remote, is potentially massive. (...) The last argument is that the internet is supposed to be free and open, something China believes is an existential threat to the regime. (...) The best path to Huawei-free networks may be to embrace open-source solutions. Projects like O-RAN, the Open Radio Access Network might allow more vendors to enter the market to provide mobile technologies at lesser cost."

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"Can U.S.-Taliban Peace Talks End the War in Afghanistan?"

Selbst im Fall eines erfolgreichen Abschlusses der Friedensverhandlungen zwischen den USA und den Taliban wäre nicht garantiert, dass Afghanistan tatsächlich zur Ruhe kommt, schreibt Amber Duan. "Despite reassurances of progress by Khalilzad, many factors could cause the peace process to fall apart. For one, it is uncertain whether the Afghan government, largely sidelined from the peace process, will recognize and abide by a U.S.-Taliban deal. The Taliban could also walk away from the negotiating table, believing that it can push U.S. troops to withdraw without a deal. (...) Even if the United States and the Taliban reach an agreement, many fear that it will only end U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan and not conflict in the country at large. If Taliban and Afghan government leaders are unable to broker a power-sharing agreement, many experts say, Afghanistan will remain a hub of instability where its citizens fear attacks, and it could once again serve as a haven for al-Qaeda and terrorist groups affiliated with the self-proclaimed Islamic State."

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"Election 2020: Candidates Answer CFR’s Questions"

Der Council on Foreign Relations hat den demokratischen Präsidentschaftskandidaten eine Reihe von außen- und sicherheitspolitischen Fragen zukommen lassen und die bisherigen Antworten in einem Dossier zusammengestellt. "CFR invited the Democratic candidates to articulate their positions on twelve critical foreign policy issues. The questionnaire was sent to all candidates on July 8. Candidates’ answers are posted exactly as they were received."

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"Europe’s Future Will Be Decided in North Africa"

Steven A. Cook empfiehlt der US-Regierung, Nordafrika nicht länger als Nebenschauplatz zu behandeln. Die Stabilität und Sicherheit Europas und damit auch zentrale amerikanische Sicherheitsinteressen werden sich dort entscheiden, so seine Prognose. "It would be an exaggeration to suggest that as goes North Africa so goes Europe but not by much. The United States still has a compelling interest in a Europe that, in the words of the late George H.W. Bush, is 'whole and free.' And among policymakers in Washington, there is increasing concern about Europe’s vulnerability because so much of its natural gas comes from Russia. But 11 percent comes from Algeria. That might not sound like a lot, but some individual European countries are more vulnerable than others. (...) Then there is migration, an issue that has vexed Europe’s leaders, caught as they are between the European Union’s liberal cosmopolitanism and a virulent nationalism that a united, democratic, and prosperous continent was supposed to make irrelevant. (...) For almost two decades, Washington’s focus has been on combating al Qaeda and then the Islamic State in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Extremism in North Africa seems to be an afterthought. It should not be. Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia all have terrorism problems that have affected Europe in frightening ways. (...) Finally, it is not just North Africa’s old colonial powers — France and Italy — that are active there. Russia has a long-standing defense relationship with Algeria, but it has also become more active in Libya. (...) Given how energy, migration, extremism, and Russia’s ambition coincide in North Africa to threaten European stability, it does not seem wise for U.S. policymakers to continue to treat the region as an afterthought."

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

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