US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

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21.09.2020

"Yes, America Needs Alternatives to Troops in Germany"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/yes-america-needs-alternatives-troops-germany-169320

Russell A. Berman betrachtet Deutschland offenbar nicht länger als verlässlichen Partner der USA. Die US-Regierung sollte seiner Ansicht nach deshalb verstärkt nach alternativen Truppenstandorten in Europa Ausschau halten. "Not only does the German political class remain reluctant to make good on its commitments in the Wales Pledge to contribute to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) costs, the electorate is neither supportive of the American military presence nor predisposed to endorse military solutions anywhere. For the foreseeable future, the political environment in Germany will make the American military presence increasingly uncomfortable and, more importantly, limit its strategic utility in a plausible crisis situation. Germany has ceased to be a reliable venue for the primary concentration of American forces in Europe. (…) Given the tenuousness of German approval for American military operations, it is urgent that alternative European locations for troop deployment be identified and developed. This does not necessarily imply moving all troops out of Germany, but it does mean a clear-eyed recognition that the United States needs more reliable options."

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20.09.2020

"Washington’s Middle East Debate Is Changing"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/washington%E2%80%99s-middle-east-debate-changing-169206

Die neuen Entwicklungen im Nahen Osten könnten grundsätzliche Auswirkungen auf die amerikanische Interpretation sicherheitspolitischer Konflikte in der Region haben, meint Leon Hadar. "Old Middle East experts probably recall a time not so long ago when the debate over U.S. policy towards the region was dominated by one narrative: The 'pro-Arab' crowd versus the 'pro-Israel' community. This zero-sum-game forced Americans, the White House and Congress to choose sides. (…) In a way, U.S. policymakers and legislators may not have to 'choose sides' anymore in a fading Arab-Israeli conflict. More specifically, in the past, the irresolution of the dispute between the Israelis and the Palestinians would have been an obstacle to Arab-Israeli détente and could have ignited a regional war that would have had an impact on U.S. interests. That is not the case today. Now, Washington is in a position to strengthen its ties with both Israel and the Arab-Sunni states without paying like in the past the costs of dealing with a military confrontation between these former adversaries."

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12.09.2020

"America vs. Russia: Brinksmanship With Nuclear Bombers Risks Starting a Disastrous War"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/america-vs-russia-brinksmanship-nuclear-bombers-risks-starting
-disastrous-war-168851

Über dem Schwarzen Meer finde derzeit ein gefährliches Katz-und-Maus-Spiel zwischen amerikanischen Atombombern und russischen Kampflugzeugen statt, warnt Jason Ditz. "In the past few months, the Black Sea is a lot less quiet than it ought to be. A mostly land-locked sea with decades of treaties designed to keep interlopers from sending warships into the area willy-nilly, the source of tension is in the skies, with U.S. planes showing up just outside of Russian airspace. (…) This culminated at the end of August, with an overflight by U.S. strategic bombers of the entire NATO alliance. Nominally a show of solidarity, it quickly became provocation when one of the bombers, a nuclear-capable B-52, made a beeline for the Black Sea, and headed for Russian airspace. An interception followed, and the usual U.S. complaining about how 'unprofessional' that was. An incident with spy planes happened at the same time. One might be forgiven for mistaking this for more of the same, but it is now being reported that the whole thing was deliberately a ploy by the United States, whereby they baited the Russians with a B-52, and then used the surveillance planes to collect data on Russia’s interception capabilities. (…) If anything, the complaints of 'unsafe' interception underscore the real problem, that this whole operation was entirely unsafe, deliberately provocative with nuclear assets, and risked the sort of civilization-ending misunderstanding that typified Cold War nightmares."

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02.09.2020

"Four Reasons Why Regime Change Won’t Occur In Belarus"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/four-reasons-why-regime-change-won’t-occur-belarus-168226

Andranik Migranyan vom Moscow State Institute of International Relations hält einen Regimewechsel in Weißrussland aus vier Gründen für unwahrscheinlich: "First, President Alexander Lukashenko is a very sturdy and strong-willed person, ready to hold on to his power to the end. (…) Second, he managed to retain the loyalty of almost all of his political team and security officials. The revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine, and Armenia were successful due to a grave division within elite groups. (…) Third, Russia, with a slight delay, spoke out in defense of Lukashenko. (…) Fourth, despite the fact that the opposition is assembling tens, even hundreds of thousands to the streets against Lukashenko, it cannot come to power, because unlike Georgia, Ukraine, and Armenia, it is institutionally absent in Belarusian politics — it doesn’t have serious political leaders, political parties that are represented in the Parliament, and doesn’t have established civil society institutions. (…) Most likely, at a meeting with Putin, Lukashenko will draw a roadmap with stages — the adoption of a new constitution and early elections. The process will likely take about two years. This should have a calming effect on the Belarusian protesters. Then Lukashenko will assume, in my opinion, a position created specifically for him in the unified union state."

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28.08.2020

"Why Lukashenko Will Prevail in Belarus"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-lukashenko-will-prevail-belarus-167937

Melinda Haring vom Atlantic Council erwartet, dass Präsident Lukaschenko trotz der aktuellen Proteste in Weißrussland im Amt bleiben wird. "Large-scale protests are expected this weekend, but they may not be enough to threaten Lukashenko’s rule in any serious fashion. He and his camarilla have throttled the Internet, severing Belarusians’ access to free information. Several million people now receive updates from Telegram on their mobile phones. The non-violent nature of the protests and the heroic scenes of plucky grannies defying Lukashenko’s thuggish security forces are apt to remind many of Poland in the 1980s. However, the future of the protests is uncertain. The European Union has threatened sanctions. The State Department has issued platitudes. Belarus is inconsequential geopolitically and the United States remains fixated internally on its upcoming presidential election and its lackluster response to the coronavirus pandemic."

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18.08.2020

"Biden and Harris Will Change a Lot of Things — But Not Trump's China Policy"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/biden-and-harris-will-change-lot-things—-not-trumps-china-poli
cy-167066

Die China-Politik der USA würde sich auch unter einem Präsidenten Biden nicht wesentlich ändern, ist Keith B. Richburg überzeugt. Biden würde sich sogar auf einen parteiübergreifenden Konsens für einen verschärften Konfrontationskurs stützen können. "One of the reasons for the likely continuity in China policy is Americans’ growing negative perception of China and its leader, Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping. A recent survey at the end of July by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center found that 73% of Americans had an unfavourable view of China, and 77% had little or no confidence in Xi to do the right thing. Those assessments were largely driven by negative views of China’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, with 78% blaming China’s initial mishandling of the virus for causing a global pandemic. More Americans now see China as a competitor, not a partner. The souring of American views on China is new, though it predates the coronavirus. As recently as 2011, during President Barack Obama’s first term, a majority of Americans had a positive view of China. But that began to change as more Americans began to see China as an economic threat and a military challenge."

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13.08.2020

"Sputnik V: The Geopolitics Surrounding Russia's Coronavirus Vaccine"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/sputnik-v-geopolitics-surrounding-russias-coronavirus-vaccine-166805

Der Umgang Russlands mit seinem neuen Covid-19-Impfstoff habe auch einen geopolitischen Hintergrund, schreibt Nikolas K. Gvosdev. "Moscow has identified a coalition it wishes to confirm, develop, and pay for the vaccine — and its preferred choice of partners is quite interesting. Kirill Dmitriev, who heads up the state-controlled Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), has noted that phase 3 clinical trials will be held in India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Brazil and the Philippines. Also, Dmitriev expects that production of the vaccine will take place with financial partnerships and local manufacturing concerns in India, South Korea, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Cuba. In essence, Russia is not only turning to its long-standing strategic partner India but reaching out to a series of middle powers, most of whom have had friction in their relationship with the United States in recent years, or who now feel less sure of U.S. guarantees and support. At the same time, these are countries that want options beyond having to turn to China. It follows a Russian strategic approach of reaching out to the non-Western world and positioning Russia as an alternative."

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11.08.2020

"Russian Military Looks to Establish Six Military Bases in Africa"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russian-military-looks-establish-six-military-bases-africa-166685

Einem vertraulichen Bericht des deutschen Außenministeriums zufolge betrachtet Russland Afrika als strategische Priorität. Peter Suciu erklärt, welchen Hintergrund die verstärkte militärische Kooperation Moskaus mit afrikanischen Regierungen haben könnte. "Since 2015, Russia had concluded military cooperation with twenty-one African countries — and has openly sought permission to establish military bases in six nations, including Egypt, the Central Africa Republic, Eritrea, Madagascar, Mozambique and Sudan. (…) The German report stated that Russia would not only send officers to those nations for training, but would invite soldiers from Africa to train in facilities in Russia. It is also operating training programs via private security contractors such as Wagner — a fact Moscow has previously denied. This could be a 'win' for the African powers, as this could involve increased training opportunities from the Russian military, but could also be a way for Russia to showcase its military hardware on the continent to attract sales of its aircraft, tanks and heavy weapons. Russia currently is the largest arms supplier in Africa with about 37.6% of the market share, followed by the United States with 16%, France with 14% and China with 9%."

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03.08.2020

"Why a Nuclear-Free North Korea Is A Dream That Needs to Die"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/why-nuclear-free-north-korea-dream-needs-die-166124

Nach Ansicht von Doug Bandow ist es an der Zeit, sich endgültig vom "Traum" eines atomwaffenfreien Nordkoreas zu verabschieden. "The three-decade anniversary of the start of Korea’s nuclear crisis, which began under the George H.W. Bush administration, is approaching. Washington’s position always has been complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID). (…) What had to be a slim chance of convincing the North to abandon its nuclear program diminished to near-nothingness as Washington directed its military to go about the globe bombing, invading, and occupying other nations at will. Particularly dramatic, and educational for the North, was America’s treatment of Iran and Libya. (…) Unfortunately, the pursuit of denuclearization is a prime example of the perfect becoming the enemy of the good. Demanding that the North give up everything is a nonstarter. Kim will make empty promises in hopes of receiving some benefits along the way. The United States will refuse to provide any inducement, even for actions that would make the peninsula safer and more stable. Hence the present impasse between America and DPRK after two summits."

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20.07.2020

"Israel Is Slowly Become a Drone Superpower"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/israel-slowly-become-drone-superpower-165149

Israel sei dabei, mit immer neuen Innovationen in der militärischen Drohnentechnologie zu einer "Supermacht" in diesem Sektor aufzusteigen, schreibt Seth J. Frantzman. "Israel’s niche today in drone technology is two-fold; it continues to make series of tiered systems from smaller drones to high-altitude surveillance UAVs, as well as pioneering counter-UAV technology. For instance, Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system can be used against drones. Israel also has experimented with a variety of laser systems to shoot down drones. In addition, Israel is building a higher number of small loitering munitions. These weapons, sometimes called 'kamikaze drones,' are basically a flying warhead that can return to base if necessary, but whose real mission is to hover over a target, wait for an opportunity and then be used in precision strikes. Unlike a cruise missile or smart bomb or anti-tank guided missile, these weapons can hover and wait for an enemy to appear in range."

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18.07.2020

"Hong Kong Has Fallen — Is Taiwan Next?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/hong-kong-has-fallen—-taiwan-next-165105

Azeem Ibrahim warnt, dass China nach der faktischen "Annexion" Hongkongs als nächstes Ziel Taiwan ins Visier nehmen könnte. "For Beijing, especially for Han nationalists like Xi, the annexation of Taiwan would be the culmination of their dreams of 'national unification.' (…) Of course, there are economic and strategic reasons why China will want to assert sovereign ownership over the island of Taiwan, but fundamentally, this is about the history, and what people like Xi see as the destiny of China under communist rule. This is important to appreciate in order to understand the kinds of costs Beijing is willing to pay in order to impose its will over Taiwan in the same way that it did over Hong Kong. (…) Taiwan will be the 'End Game' for that very same approach to political identity currently in favour at the top of the Chinese Communist Party. And, at this moment in history, it is the last redoubt of resistance left standing."

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14.07.2020

"Why A 'Grand Bargain' Between the West and North Korea Is Possible"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/why-‘grand-bargain’-between-west-and-north-korea-possib
le-164748

Trotz der vielen Fehlschläge der amerikanischen Nordkorea-Diplomatie habe Präsident Trump nach Ansicht von Richard Javad Heydarian ein "entscheidendes Ziel" erreicht: Das lange bestehende Tabu direkter Verhandlungen zwischen den USA und Nordkorea sei endgültig gebrochen. Damit sei der Boden für einen diplomatischen Durchbruch bereitet, insbesondere wenn Trump in den kommenden Jahren durch einen reiferen Amtsinhaber ersetzt werden sollte. "To begin with, revolutions in military technology have made Korean War-like mobilization increasingly unappealing. I doubt even North Koreans, despite all their notorious bluster, are interested in repeating the grinding 'total war' that devastated the Korean Peninsula during those opening years of the Cold War. Having mastered nuclear technology, Pyongyang seems less insecure than ever. (…) And for all his faults and blunders, President Donald Trump has achieved a crucial objective: puncturing the taboo of direct negotiations with Pyongyang, in conjunction with Seoul and full support from like-minded regional actors, from Singapore to Vietnam, which hosted the historic summits in the past two years. As a result, a 'grand bargain' between the West and Pyongyang is less improbable than ever, especially if a sound, mature leader occupies the White House in the coming years."

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06.07.2020

"Five Reasons Why Zelensky is Failing in Ukraine"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/five-reasons-why-zelensky-failing-ukraine-164181

Ein Jahr nach seinem Amtsantritt wirke der ukrainische Präsident Volodymyr Zelensky "matt und besiegt", schreibt Melinda Haring vom Atlantic Council. Sie erläutert fünf kursierende Theorien, die den auffälligen Wandel mehr oder weniger glaubwürdig erklären sollen: "1. Servant of an Oligarch: Zelensky is a puppet of Ihor Kolomoisky. (…) 2. Russian puppet: (…) The theory has superficial appeal, but lacks supporting evidence beyond the circumstantial and, more importantly, fails to take the sheer incompetence in Kyiv into account. 3. Victim of his own inexperience: (…) When this trusted circle disagrees, Zelensky doesn’t know what to do. Insiders tell me that the president trusts no one, wants his people on every committee and board, has no ideology, and insists that everything must be done immediately. He can’t delegate. He ignores his own cabinet and deals directly with ministers and regional leaders. After the series of indefensible personnel decisions this spring, this theory looks increasingly likely. 4. Victim of his own naivete: Zelensky genuinely meant well and ran for president to fix the country. (…) According to former Prime Minister Oleksii Honcharuk, 'Zelensky changed.' (…) 5. No match for the system: It’s impossible to change Ukraine. (…) Ukraine’s modern history makes it impossible to summarily dismiss this theory."

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03.07.2020

"Why Donald Trump Should Think Twice About Moving U.S. Troops from Germany to Poland"

http://https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-donald-trump-should-think-twice-about-moving-us-troops-
germany-poland-164133

Eine Verlegung von US-Truppen aus Deutschland nach Polen wäre auch aufgrund der politischen Entwicklung in Warschau eine schlechte Idee, meint Michael Rubin. "Poland bases might be a no-brainer for the Pentagon but perhaps not for broader American interests, but too often, countries offering bases use American dependence as a means to sidestep reform or backslide on democracy. Poland is in the midst of a democratic backslide. Washington should do nothing that disincentivizes Poland’s increasingly dictatorial regime to return to democracy, even if it means forfeiting a base. (…) This is why not only Congress and the Pentagon, but also the State Department and the National Security Council should consider the impact of rebasing U.S. forces leaving Germany in Poland, especially when other alternatives exist in the Baltics, Romania, or the Czech Republic. The question then becomes whether Poland’s anti-democratic leaders will see the U.S. presence less as a defense against Russia and more as a means to immunize themselves from returning to the democratic order. U.S. forces should be in Europe to protect the liberal order, not to accelerate its end."

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17.06.2020

"Three Reasons Moon Jae-in Can Bounce Back from North Korea's Explosive Antics"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/three-reasons-moon-jae-can-bounce-back-north-koreas-explosi
ve-antics-162927

Südkoreas Präsident Moon Jae-in könnte aus der aktuellen Konfrontation mit Nordkorea durchaus gestärkt hervorgehen, meint Rob York vom Pacific Forum. "With a single explosion (and several press releases’ worth of invective) North Korea has unraveled Moon’s greatest diplomatic accomplishment. For reasons only the North fully understands, Pyongyang has cut off contact with the South, blown up the short-lived inter-Korean liaison office and released a series of statements so harsh that it boggles the mind that the two leaders literally embraced at the border two years ago. (…) Yet there are three reasons why Moon need not despair yet. 1. When it comes to North Korea, the blinders are off (…) Moon’s diplomacy in 2017-18 accomplished what was intended: it prevented war between the United States and North Korea. Moon should now no longer face pressure to deliver on inter-Korean cooperation because there’s nothing more he could have done. 2. Some of the darker theories about inter-Korean talks appear discredited (…) Rather than a grand conspiracy to create a unified Kimist Korea, it instead appears South Korea has a mere failed attempt to appease a tempestuous tyranny. 3. Moon can now forge a new path. As bad of a month as Moon has had, his party’s commanding lead in the National Assembly remains, and he still has a successor waiting in the wings in representative Lee Nak-yeon. (…) South Korea can also take a page from the ruling bloc in Taiwan — not as a thorn in China’s side or as committed separatists, but as ardent defenders of democracy in a region where it appears increasingly imperiled."

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14.06.2020

"Either You are With Us Or Against Us: Gulf States Caught Between America and China"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/either-you-are-us-or-against-us-gulf-states-caught-between-america
-and-china-162741

Die arabischen Golfstaaten sähen sich angesichts der Rivalität zwischen den USA und China zunehmend in einer Zwickmühle, schreibt Yoel Guzansky vom Institute for National Security Studies der Tel Aviv University. "So far, the Gulf states have been able to develop their economic ties with China without damaging ties with the United States They will continue to make efforts to maintain parallel relationships, and will do their utmost to avoid having to “choose sides” between the United States and China. However, as China’s political and security presence increases in the Gulf, the Gulf states will find it increasingly difficult to maintain this delicate balance. (…) As Beijing continues to nibble around the edges in areas where the United States fails to meet its Gulf allies’ requests, both sides will need to compromise. The next U.S. administration will need to present its Gulf allies with more sufficient alternatives to China’s growing economic and technology attractiveness, while the Gulf states will have to understand the cost of maintaining this enduring alliance."

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10.06.2020

"The Republican War Over Trump’s Germany Troop Pullout"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/republican-war-over-trump’s-germany-troop-pullout-162326

Republikanische "Falken" im US-Kongress hätten auf die Pläne des Weißen Hauses für einen Abzug von bis zu 9.500 US-Truppen aus Deutschland mit Protest reagiert, schreibt Jacob Heilbrunn. "Whether or not Trump follows through on his pullout, it seems clear that the stage is set for further battles between Trump and the Republican defense hawks over America’s presence in Afghanistan and elsewhere. The boldest move Trump could make would be to seek a rapprochement with Iran — something that his own aides such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo would seek to thwart. But as he faces a difficult path to reelection, it is political considerations that will weigh most heavily with Trump. A wider pullout of troops, not just from Germany but also Afghanistan, would allow Trump to declare that he truly is following through on his original campaign promise that it is time for America to come home. But the question, as always with Trump, is whether his statements represent actual policy aspirations or just a lot of hot air."

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09.06.2020

"RIP, President Moon's North Korea Peace Initiative?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/rip-president-moons-north-korea-peace-intiative-162001

Daniel R. DePetris betrachtet die aktuelle Verweigerungshaltung Nordkoreas als bedenkliches Signal für die Zukunft der Friedensinitiative des südkoreanischen Präsidenten Moon Jae In. "While Pyongyang’s decision to cut communication with the South may seem sudden, it was actually predictable given the North’s behavior over the previous 12 months. As Chad O’Carroll points out, the Kim regime has been downright nasty to the Moon administration and continues to reject every offer the South conjures up. (…) It’s especially humiliating for Moon, who continues to see the virtues and mutual security benefits of reconciliation but is nevertheless struggling to move his policy forward given the Trump administration’s short-leash. (…) At its core, the stoppage of the phone calls is more worrying for what it represents: the near-death of Moon’s signature foreign policy initiative. Time will tell whether the North Koreans are seeking to pressure Seoul into making additional concessions or whether, as seems likely, they’ve made the strategic calculation that engaging with the South is a waste of time as long as Washington holds a veto over South Korea’s policy."

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08.06.2020

"Why the U.S. Military Still Loves Donald Trump"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-us-military-still-loves-donald-trump-161786

In den unteren Rängen des US-Militärs genieße Präsident Trump nach wie vor große Unterstützung, da viele Soldaten Trumps Forderungen nach einer Beendigung unpopulärer ausländischer Kriegseinsätze ernst nähmen, schreibt Mark Perry. "(…) there’s a growing sense among senior military officers that Trump’s sustained support among those in uniform has little to do either with either the military’s inherent conservatism or its geographic roots. Instead, Trump’s support from those in uniform has more to do with the growing unease of service members (and particularly those in the enlisted ranks) with America’s endless conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, which Trump has vowed to end. That pledge, military officers say, is why Trump remains popular. (…) That there is deep unease in the U.S. military with America’s continued deployments in the Middle East is not in doubt. But the current runs much deeper among the rank and file than it does with senior officers, a civilian Pentagon official notes. (…) while Donald Trump continues to offend, insult and one-up the U.S. military’s senior commanders, that’s far less important to those who are actually fighting America’s wars⁠ — so long as he keeps his pledge to end them."

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05.06.2020

"Libyan Civil War: Is That It for Haftar?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/libyan-civil-war-it-haftar-161311

Trotz der jüngsten militärischen Rückschläge für die Libysche Nationalarmee (LNA) erwartet Marco Túlio Lara keinen freiwilligen Rückzug von General Haftar. Die Niederlagen könnten allerdings dazu führen, dass sich Haftars internationale Verbündete von ihm abwenden und stattdessen den kompromissbereiteren Aguila Saleh, Präsident des Repräsentantenhauses in Tobruk, unterstützen. "Haftar’s backers bet on the Marshal thinking he would be able to quickly deal with the GNA, but a year of failed attempts to take the capital and the GNA’s ultimate counteroffensive rolling back his gains may well cost him some goodwill on the UAE and Egypt’s part. The next move for both countries may be the same as that of Russia, which is to support Aguila Saleh, the head of the Tobruk-based House of Representatives, with whom Haftar had a recent fallout, as Saleh offered a diplomatic way out of the crisis just as Haftar was brushing aside a key agreement paving the way for a negotiated solution. While this may not have been the preferred outcome of Haftar’s backers, given the current situation, negotiations may be the only realistic strategy at this time."

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01.06.2020

"How COVID-19 Could Transform UN Peacekeeping"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/how-covid-19-could-transform-un-peacekeeping-158771

Charles T. Hunt und Adam Day erläutern, welche Auswirkungen die Coronakrise auf die Friedensmissionen der UNO haben könnte. "Peacekeeping may be entering a period of major change. Over the past four years, there has been a steady decline in the number of peacekeepers deployed worldwide. And two of the largest peacekeeping missions in history are beginning to draw down. These two developments hint at the fact that UN peacekeeping may appear poised to shrink further. There are a number of factors driving this. They include budgetary pressures and a contested track record. Added to this have been the more recent financial and practical challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, COVID-19 has also created conditions that suggest the demand for peace operations may be even greater in the medium-term. This is because the economic, security and social effects of COVID-19 are likely to cause greater instability in conflict-prone countries. This could lead to new internal conflicts at a time when UN member states are consumed with their own internal affairs. This greater need for peacekeeping efforts offers an opportunity for the UN to explore a real spectrum of peace operations beyond the large multidimensional model. Future missions could be more orientated towards deeper socio-economic drivers of today’s conflicts."

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01.06.2020

"The True Danger of Withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/true-danger-withdrawing-open-skies-treaty-159411

Nach dem Austritt der USA aus dem "Open Skies"-Vertrag zur gegenseitigen Luftüberwachung fürchtet Daniel R. DePetris, dass auch das "New START"-Abkommen nicht mehr zu retten sei. "The White House is reportedly debating a New START extension for a shorter time period than the five-year maximum allowed under the treaty. While far better than simply watching the accord die in ten months, a short-term extension is unlikely to provide the administration with the time to negotiate a more far-reaching and ambitious arms control agreement with Moscow. It certainly would not be enough time to entice China to join a comprehensive trilateral strategic weapons agreement. Washington’s formal withdrawal means the Open Skies Treaty is likely dead in the water. The Trump administration should not make the additional mistake of passively watching as a far more important agreement, New START, nears its expiration date."

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27.05.2020

"Pompeo Cuts Off Special U.S. Trade Relationship With Hong Kong"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/pompeo-cuts-special-us-trade-relationship-hong-kong-157996

US-Außenminister Pompeo hat nach der Verabschiedung des neuen Sicherheitsgesetzes für Hongkong durch den Volkskongress in Peking angekündigt, dass Hongkong künftig handelspolitisch wie Festlandchina behandelt werden könnte. Die Sonderverwaltungszone würde damit Handelsprivilegien verlieren. "'Beijing’s disastrous decision is only the latest in a series of actions that fundamentally undermine Hong Kong’s autonomy and freedoms and China’s own promises to the Hong Kong people,' Pompeo said in a Wednesday statement, citing older British-Chinese agreements. 'No reasonable person can assert today that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China, given facts on the ground.' Pompeo’s declaration could trigger the Hong Kong Policy Act, which would subject Hong Kong to the same tariffs and export controls as the rest of China. U.S.-China trade relations are currently taking a turn for the worse as competition between the two powers heats up. David R. Stilwell, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, told reporters at a Wednesday conference call that the decision is now up to President Donald Trump."

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24.05.2020

"Don't Listen to the 'China Covered Up the Coronavirus' Narrative"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/dont-listen-%E2%80%98china-covered-coronavirus%E2%80%99-narrat
ive-157241

Mitchell Blatt widerspricht der These, dass China den Ausbruch der Corona-Epidemie zunächst verschleiert habe. Politiker nutzten dieses Narrativ vor allem, um von eigenen Versäumnissen abzulenken. "China made some mistakes, as did every country, in responding to the coronavirus, but China’s overall response was more effective than most countries, with domestic quarantines of inter-city travelers, widespread mask-wearing, and a testing and tracing regime with access to a vast trove of data. And the claims of a 'cover-up' are inaccurate. They are nothing but a cover for politicians and countries with antagonistic relationships towards China to defend themselves in front of their domestic publics and to pressure China internationally. (…) To hold that China could have or should have been able to know from day one that these cases of pneumonia were actually coming from a new virus, or that it should have known the virus spread through the breath of apparently healthy people, and that it should have been able to track every case of the virus, is, somewhat ironically, to hold China to higher standards than the most developed democratic countries in the world. When China mishandles a pandemic, it is ascribed to malfeasance; when the United States and Europe do, it is the ordinary, expected incompetence."

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17.05.2020

"Will the Arctic Become the Next South China Sea?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/will-arctic-become-next-south-china-sea-155046

Die Arktis könnte bald zu einem neuen Brennpunkt der geopolitischen Rivalität zwischen den USA und China werden, schreibt Anya Gorodentsev vom Center for the National Interest. China lasse keinen Zweifel an seinem Interesse an der Region und investiere in wissenschaftliche Expeditionen und Infrastrukturprojekte. "China’s Arctic policy explicitly states that it upholds the sovereignty of Arctic states with territorial claims and does not wish to challenge them. Though at the same time, the policy document emphasizes the freedom of navigation in the Arctic seas for continued trade growth and advocates the Arctic Ocean for global usage. Its near-Arctic state identity has drawn criticism from the international community as it has no history of scientific exploration in the region nor a geographic border. And as the U.S.-China relationship becomes increasingly strained, China’s growing interests in the region may be met with hostility by the United States and other Arctic NATO-littoral actors."

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12.05.2020

"Ukraine and the Clash of Civilizations"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ukraine-and-clash-civilizations-153636

Nach Ansicht von William S. Smith vom Center for the Study of Statesmanship an der Catholic University of America sollte der Westen den "Stellvertreterkrieg" in der Ukraine beenden, um nicht einen größeren Konflikt mit Russland zu riskieren. Er betrachtet den Konflikt im Kontext des von Samuel P. Huntington analysierten "Kampfes der Kulturen" und empfiehlt, Russlands Interessen in der Ukraine bei einer diplomatischen Lösung zu berücksichtigen. "Huntington predicted the crisis in Ukraine. His theory that nations would return to their historical and cultural roots had a natural corollary: nations that were divided between civilizations, so-called 'cleft' countries, were the places that would most likely generate great-power conflict. Consider that, in the former Yugoslavia, the United States, Germany, Russia and prominent Islamic nations all lined up to support different proxies in the conflict according to shared civilizational commonalities. By Huntington’s civilizational standard, Ukraine is a severely cleft country, divided internally along historical, geographic and religious lines, with western Ukraine firmly in the European corner and eastern Ukraine and Crimea firmly in the orbit of Orthodox Russia. (…) Huntington, in fact, warned emphatically against provoking the Islamic world and argued for caution and diplomacy in cleft countries such as Ukraine. He was adamantly opposed to crusading democracy promotion as a core component of U.S. foreign policy."

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10.05.2020

"Coronavirus As the Spark for a U.S.-North Korea Nuclear Deal?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/coronavirus-spark-us-north-korea-nuclear-deal-152926

Könnte die Coronakrise den Atomverhandlungen zwischen den USA und Nordkorea einen neuen Impuls verleihen? Devin Stewart schreibt, dass die Krise der US-Regierung einen Vorwand zur Lockerung der Sanktionen gegen Nordkorea liefern könnte. "The Hanoi failure did serve to remind observers how important sanctions relief is for North Korea, however. And it showed that the United States may have been willing to offer a peace declaration and diplomatic liaison offices if the deal were right. Indeed, while North Korea has been sending friendly signals to Russia and China, the CIA director nominee said he believes Pyongyang would give up 'some' of its nuclear arsenal for sanctions relief. That leaves a tiny shred of hope. Crises can have counterintuitive effects. Here’s an idea: Perhaps the COVID crisis could do some good by creating political cover (or an excuse) for the United States to offer sanctions relief to North Korea out of humanitarian concern. That could facilitate the revival of a deal that has yet to come to fruition."

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04.05.2020

"The Trump Administration’s Looming UN Fight With Russia and China Over Iran"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/trump-administration’s-looming-un-fight-russia-and-
china-over-iran-150731

Nach dem Auslaufen der derzeit geltenden UN-Sanktionen gegen den Iran könnten China und Russland erneut Waffen an Teheran verkaufen. Matthew Petti berichtet über die Bemühungen der US-Regierung, dies zu verhindern. "The Trump administration plans to activate a legal mechanism to extend United Nations sanctions on Iran in October. Other world powers have rejected the Trump administration’s legal argument, setting the stage for a bitter fight in the UN Security Council. But the Trump administration does not have a clearly-articulated plan for what to do next. Hook, who oversees Iranian affairs at the State Department, rejected the question as a 'hypothetical' when asked what to do if Russia and China simply ignores U.S. declarations. The Security Council passed Resolution 2231, which lifts the arms embargo on Iran in October 2020 unless a 'participating member' objects, as part of a 2015 deal to regulate the Iranian nuclear program. The Trump administration left the deal in 2018, but claims that it still has the legal right to snap back the embargo under Resolution 2231."

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