US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

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16.03.2021

"How the U.S. and North Korea Could Sleepwalk Into a Nuclear War"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/how-us-and-north-korea-could-sleepwalk-nuclear-war-180330

Aufgrund technischen Versagens oder menschlicher Fehlkalkulation bestehe das Risiko eines unbeabsichtigten Atomkriegs, so Doreen Horschig. Die Gefahr wäre bei einem Fehlalarm auf Hawaii 2018 sehr deutlich geworden. Eine Reform des Nuklearbereichs sei notwendig. "There needs to be radical shift to increase arms control, include women in the nuclear field, and democratize the nuclear space in order to reduce the dangers that became all too real in Hawaii."

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15.03.2021

"World War III: If Russia Invaded the Baltics NATO Couldn't Stop Them"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/world-war-iii-if-russia-invaded-baltics-nato-couldnt-stop-them-180
303

Warum hat Russland bislang auf ein militärisches Vorgehen gegen die baltischen Staaten verzichtet, obwohl es nach Einschätzung vieler Expertinnen und Experten über die notwendigen Mittel hierfür verfüge? Mark Episkopos geht dieser Frage nach: "Experts have noted that the likelihood of such an invasion remains exceedingly low under present circumstances, in large part because capability does not imply intent. It is indisputably true that Russia can annex the Baltic states with negligible short-term costs, but the avalanche of medium to long-term military, economic, and political consequences-- up to and including an escalatory spiral that could trigger WWIII-- far outstrips any of the dubious, ill-defined benefits that could possibly come from such an endeavor."

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22.02.2021

"What Would War Between America and China Look Like in 2030?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/what-would-war-between-america-and-china-look-2030-178628

Robert Farley wirft einen Blick in die Zukunft und eruiert, wie ein Krieg zwischen China und den USA im Jahr 2030 vermutlich aussehen würde. "While the field of battle will depend on the cause of conflict, we can expect that the crucial theaters of war will be the East and South China Seas. This will place an emphasis on the air and naval capabilities of each country (…). Victory will depend on which side can destroy the primary fielded forces of the enemy, either through decisive assault or through attrition."

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21.02.2021

"The U.S. Military Is Bulking Up in Eastern Europe to Take on Russia"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-military-bulking-eastern-europe-take-russia-178582

Die jüngsten Initiativen des US-amerikanischen Verteidigungsministeriums in Osteuropa könnten als Stärkung der Abschreckung gegen Russland verstanden werden, so Kris Osborn. "The Air Force's 25th Attack Group is shifting its operational focus from Central Command operations in the Middle East supporting campaigns in Afghanistan and against what's left of ISIS, to stepped-up operations with the U.S. Air Forces in Europe. The effort includes sending MQ-9 Reaper drones to Romania. (…) This development is not only significant in that it adds highly sought after drone surveillance throughout potentially contested (…) areas in Eastern Europe but it also represents the tactical evolution of the Reaper drone from a primary counterinsurgency mission support surveillance of insurgents and terrorist in what's called uncontested areas, into an air combat platform able to add enormous value in a potentially massive, great power war."

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15.02.2021

"Illiteracy, Not Morality, Is Holding Back Military Integration of Artificial Intelligence"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/illiteracy-not-morality-holding-back-military-integration-artificial
-intelligence-178261

Nicht moralische Bedenken, sondern mangelnde Datenkompetenz des US-Militärs stünden der Integration Künstlicher Intelligenz in Waffensysteme im Weg, meint J. Darren Duke. "To get at this problem, Congress will have to change two military habits: First, Congress must close the education gap in this technical subject by directing changes to curriculum requirements for military officer accessions to produce a data-native officer corps. (…) Second, Congress will have to direct the targeted elimination of services and organizations where AI/ML applications in civilian organizations at corresponding scale are the current standard."

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05.02.2021

"Morality Poses the Biggest Risk to Military Integration of Artificial Intelligence"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/morality-poses-biggest-risk-military-integration-artificial-intell
igence-177605

John Austerman argumentiert: Ein Zögern bei der Integration Künstlicher Intelligenz in Waffensysteme aufgrund moralischer Bedenken sei riskant. "The future of weapon systems will include AI guiding the selection of targets, information gathering and processing, and ultimately, delivering force as necessary. (…) Waiting to act on AI integration into our weapons systems puts us behind the technological curve required to effectively compete with our foes. It would be foolish to believe our adversaries and their R&D programs are being held up on AI integration due to moral and public support requirements".

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31.01.2021

"The Navy Just Filed Patents for New Unbelievable Superweapons"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/navy-just-filed-patents-new-unbelievable-superweapons-177310

Alex Hollings berichtet über kürzlich freigegebene Dokumente der US Navy, in denen erstmals eine sogenannte "Spacetime Modification Weapon" erwähnt wird. Die der Waffe zugrundeliegende Technologie könne einerseits möglicherweise die Abhängigkeit der Menschheit von fossilen Brennstoffen beenden, habe potentiell jedoch gleichzeitig auch weitreichende militärische Implikationen. "If and when this technology does come to fruition, it could be used to fundamentally change practically everything in our world today… or potentially, just to blow it all up."

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27.01.2021

"Russia Confirm Avangard Missile System Falls Under New START"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-confirm-avangard-missile-system-falls-under-new-start-17718
1

Im Zuge der Verlängerung des New-Start-Abkommens hat Russland der US-Forderung nachgegeben, das hochmoderne Avangard-Raketensystem in den Vertrag einzubeziehen. "Russia’s Avangard hypersonic boost-glide missile system will be covered under the extended New START treaty, according to a senior Russian official. (…) Avangard’s classification under New START is an open-and-shut case. Avangard’s missiles are already regulated under the treaty, but the system itself falls under New START’s criterion for a re-entry vehicle: that is, an object 'that can survive reentry through the dense layers of the Earth’s atmosphere and that is designed for delivering a weapon to a target or for testing such a delivery.' Still, the Kremlin demurred over the past several years on whether or not any of its recent weapons, including the new Tu-22M3M strategic long-range bomber, should be brought into the New START treaty format. New START’s verification provisions will potentially require the Kremlin to notify America whenever it moves, deploys, or tests any of its Avangard units."

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26.01.2021

"Biden’s First Call with Putin Shows He’s a Dealmaker"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/biden%E2%80%99s-first-call-putin-shows-he%E2%80%99s-dealmaker-177135

Das erste Telefongespräch zwischen Joe Biden und Wladimir Putin hat Jacob Heilbrunn zufolge gezeigt, dass der neue US-Präsident in seiner Russland-Strategie flexibler und zugleich erfolgreicher sein könnte als sein Amtsvorgänger. "If Biden wants to be a transformative president in both domestic and foreign policy, he will seize the opportunity to thaw the currently gelid relations with Moscow. It would not be surprising if he pushes for a summit meeting with Putin in Europe this year. The upsides are clear. Dealing with Russia would allow him to focus on the competition with China, attenuate the threat to NATO, and reach a real resolution on Ukraine. (…) For now, Biden has it right in refusing to call for a 'reset' in relations. Instead of spouting slogans about reviving ties between Russia and America, he is better advised to seek incremental change. Unlike Trump, who was hobbled from the outset by suspicion about his tenebrous ties to Russia, Biden has a lot of maneuvering room. He should use it."

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25.01.2021

"The Truth Behind Russia’s Navalny Protests"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/truth-behind-russia%E2%80%99s-navalny-protests-177067

Die aktuellen Proteste gegen die Verhaftung Alexei Navalnys zeigen nach Ansicht von Mark Episkopos, dass die russische Opposition nach wie vor nicht geeint genug sei, um eine echte politische Alternative zur russischen Regierung anbieten zu können. "(…) Washington’s policy approach must incorporate a series of long-overdue truths about the Kremlin and the state of the Russian opposition. First, it is grossly premature to view the Saturday protests as a popular referendum on the Kremlin. (...) Then there are the protesters themselves. They were drawn from a haphazard coalition that included liberals, radical socialists, communists, and varying shades of nationalists, united less by political allegiance to Navalny than by their shared opposition to the Kremlin. (…) Some of these groups were guided by what can broadly be described as a commitment to Western-style liberal democracy, but far from all. It is not at all clear that the numerous sub-factions represented at the protests, such as the supporters of the jailed left-wing populist Nikolai Platoshkin, were fighting for anything even remotely approaching the liberal values that President Joe Biden seeks to promote overseas."

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25.01.2021

"Why Joe Biden Might Not Find It So Easy to Reboot the Iran Deal"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-joe-biden-might-not-find-it-so-easy-reboot-iran-deal-177058

Dov S. Zakheim bezweifelt, dass Präsident Rohani seinen Posten bei den iranischen Wahlen im Frühling behalten wird. Die Pläne Joe Bidens zur Wiederbelebung der Atomgespräche mit Teheran dürften danach noch schwieriger umzusetzen sein. "Precisely because Iran is likely to be led by a hardliner and has already demonstrated that it can enrich uranium to 20 percent, Tehran now has the ability to build a nuclear weapon in about six months. As a result, Iran has far less of an incentive to limit itself just because Washington had a change of heart. Moreover, Tehran has also demonstrated that it would not capitulate even under the pressure of ever-tighter sanctions and an economy that is buckling under their weight. Finally, the IRGC values what it considers to be the nation’s security over economic issues, and in any event, has a stranglehold over the economy, meaning that its members are suffering relatively less than ordinary Iranians. For all of these reasons, Iran will likely hold out for terms at least as favorable as those it negotiated in 2015, namely, that there be no reference to regional issues, no reference to missile development, and that agreement’s sunset clauses be no more onerous than those in the original agreement."

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24.01.2021

"Biden Can Bolster Horn of Africa Security without Huge Deployments"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/biden-can-bolster-horn-africa-security-without-huge-deployments-17
7014

Michael Rubin vom American Enterprise Institute meint, dass US-Präsident Biden den von Amtsvorgänger Trump angeordneten Truppenabzug aus Somalia nicht rückgängig machen sollte. Dies müsse allerdings nicht bedeuten, dass die USA sich militärisch von Somalia abwenden. "While U.S. special operators performed an valuable function helping to advise and assist Somali forces and Biden’s team may simply order their return, a visit to Somaliland and Puntland to talk to local officials as U.S. troops withdrew suggests there is much the United States can do at little expense to support both local partners and U.S. national security. (…) while Biden may not want to permanently station forces in Somalia or Somaliland, interoperability should remain an interest. This could simply mean sending smaller naval vessels such as destroyers or cruisers on occasion into Bosaso or Berbera, respectively the chief Puntland and Somaliland ports. This would ensure that local authorities had both the equipment and technical expertise to receive American ships should either a regional crisis erupt or China use Djibouti’s debt to leverage American forces out of their main African base."

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19.01.2021

"Could Europe’s INSTEX Help Save the Iran Nuclear Deal?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/could-europe%E2%80%99s-instex-help-save-iran-nuclear-deal-176660

Das von der EU gebildete Spezialinstitut INSTEX soll europäischen Unternehmen ermöglichen, trotz der US-Sanktionen weiter Geschäfte mit dem Iran zu betreiben. Die Plattform könnte nach dem Antritt der neuen US-Regierung neue Bedeutung erhalten, schreibt Francis Shin. "As INSTEX was designed to enable greater humanitarian trade with Iran without violating the United States’ sanctions, the Biden administration could encourage more European Union member countries (and possibly even Russia too) to commit to INSTEX during negotiations as part of a series of confidence-building measures. Considering the current pandemic situation, increasing medical equipment exports via INSTEX would be a good start. The Biden administration could further engage with the INSTEX member countries on planning sanctions relief on Iran, thereby increasing INSTEX’s effectiveness by giving it more room to operate. The shipment of specialized medicines to Iran would be another suitable platform for increased Transatlantic cooperation."

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17.01.2021

"Why Precision Guided Missiles Weren’t Enough to Defeat ISIS"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/why-precision-guided-missiles-weren%E2%80%99t-enough-defeat-isis
-176620

Der begrenzte Erfolg bei der militärischen Bekämpfung des "Islamischen Staates" kann nach Ansicht von Robert Farley auch auf den bevorzugten Einsatz von präzisionsgelenkter Munition zurückgeführt werden. "How has the growth of the Precision-Guided Munitions (PGM) complex changed the balance of international power? More specifically, how has the U.S. military’s embrace of this system of weapons affected its ability to accomplish U.S. national goals? The president’s decision to pursue the war against ISIS strictly through the means of airpower and seapower makes the question particularly relevant. The United States will fight ISIS with precision-guided munitions, and apparently little else. It’s worth asking how effective they are in accomplishing national ends. The answer, it turns out, is surprisingly mixed."

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13.01.2021

"ISIS, Reborn: The Islamic State’s African Revival is a Lethal Blind Spot"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/isis-reborn-islamic-state%E2%80%99s-african-revival-lethal-blind-spo
t-176301

Der "Islamische Staat" habe in Subsahara-Afrika gleich vier neue Rückzugsorte, schreibt Jordan Cope. Die "Wiedergeburt" der Terrormiliz in der Region sei ein "tödlicher blinder Fleck" der Sicherheitspolitik. "While history echoes, ISIS’s pivot to Africa and new festering hotspots therein could prove more dangerous than those of its Middle Eastern past. There, ISIS has strategically established territory in cross-border zones. This tactic has allowed it to conduct attacks and disappear across borders, rendering it effectively untouchable to all affected countries — which are amongst the world’s most impoverished and unprepared to dislodge ISIS. Some hotspots also approximate natural resource basins, whose wealth, if seized, could enormously enrich the ISIS network and its capabilities. Given the implications of inaction — an emboldened ISIS network with multiple safe havens from which it can attack the West — ISIS’s African presence commands greater attention as a top security concern. Four hot spots warrant attention. First is West Africa, which endures multiple internal insurgencies. Most concerning is that governing Boko Haram whose presence envelopes Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon."

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12.01.2021

"Kim Jong-Un Wants a Good-Will Gesture, and Biden Should Give It"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/kim-jong-un-wants-good-will-gesture-and-biden-should-give-i
t-176276

Bonnie Kristian empfiehlt der kommenden US-Regierung, Nordkorea mit einer Geste des guten Willens entgegen zu kommen. "(…) look past this nonsense and it’s possible to see that Kim is attempting some rapprochement with the incoming Biden administration. Pyongyang will 'not rule out diplomacy,' he said, describing the weapons build-up of which he’d boasted as a way to 'drive diplomacy in the right direction and guarantee its success' for bringing 'peace' to the Korean Peninsula. He indicated a willingness to shift his regime’s behavior should President-elect Joe Biden move away from the Trump administration’s counterproductive 'maximum pressure' approach. Pyongyang will answer 'force with force,' Kim said, and 'goodwill with goodwill.' This may be as close as Kim will come to pleading with Biden for relief from the punishing sanctions regime the U.S. leads against North Korea. It is a crucial opening, and one Biden should use to shake off the torpor into which U.S.-North Korean relations have fallen since the first summit between Kim and President Donald Trump in 2018."

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10.01.2021

"Yes, China Is a Military Superpower"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/yes-china-military-superpower-176048

Nach Ansicht von Sebastien Roblin ist es an der Zeit, China als militärische "Supermacht" anzuerkennen. "On October 1, 2019 the People’s Republic of China’s celebrated the seventieth anniversary of its official founding after Mao Zedong consolidated the Chinese Communist Party’s control over mainland China. For the occasion, Beijing paraded cutting-edge military systems on Tiananmen Square deemed ready to unveil before audiences both domestic and international. Formerly reliant on reverse-engineered Soviet weapons from the 1950s, China has leveraged forty years of sustained economic growth to not only develop new tanks, jet fighters and aircraft carriers, but has invested heavily in combat drones, stealth technology, and long-range guided missiles."

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10.01.2021

"Why America Needs to Crack Down on Rightwing and Leftwing Anarchy"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-america-needs-crack-down-rightwing-and-leftwing-anarchy-176093

Sumantra Maitra empfiehlt den Demokraten und Republikanern, gemeinsam gegen gewaltbereite "aufständische Kräfte" im rechten und linken Spektrum vorzugehen. "The same people who supported political violence, and opposed any police action are now taking a political position that contradicts their original stance. The condemnation of last night’s storming was universal from the Left and Right. But the condemnation of the yearlong violence that preceded that came only from the Right, not from the Left, which spent months trying to justify Black Lives Matter and Antifa. This is not mere hypocrisy, but an establishment of a new hierarchy. State authority in the United States appears to have crumbled, and its institutions seem helpless in face of yearlong chaos. While a majority of the protesters in any protest Left and Right are peaceful, it is also irrelevant as they are also mostly swayed by criminals acting in their name, and most people do not seem to know that choices and actions have consequences. The violence in the Capitol didn’t just emerge ex nihilo. Quite the contrary. For four years violence and counterviolence were normalized. Op-eds were written about how protests reform society. Books were written in justification of looting and arson. And now the republic itself is in danger of insurrection."

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09.01.2021

"Why the West Isn’t Confronting China Over Coronavirus"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-west-isn%E2%80%99t-confronting-china-over-coronavirus-175884

Die unterschiedliche Perspektive auf die China-Frage wird auch 2021 das hartnäckigste Problem der transatlantischen Kooperation bleiben, meint Andrew A. Michta. "In part, Western restraint in criticizing Beijing can be explained by our unprecedented and continued economic dependence on China for key manufactured goods and supplies that the offshoring of manufacturing has wrought onto the most advanced Western economies. The pandemic has exposed the extent to which the radical centralization of key supply chains owing to Chinese mercantilism (and Western greed) has made China the sole provider of key medicines, Personal Protective Equipment and other equipment needed to manage the global health emergency. The Western reticence to criticize China is also due in part to the extent to which the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been able to influence and shape the direction of our internal policy debate, not just in the United States but also in Europe and elsewhere, with Beijing leveraging its access to every layer of Western societies. (…) While America sees China increasingly as a cross-domain threat, Europe still considers it to be predominantly an economic problem set, and in many respects also as an economic opportunity."

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09.01.2021

"American Soft Power Will Survive Donald Trump"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/american-soft-power-will-survive-donald-trump-176013

Joseph S. Nye, Jr. bezweifelt, dass die "soft power" der USA durch die aktuelle Krise in Washington nachhaltig beschädigt werden wird. "A country’s soft power comes primarily from three sources: its culture (when it is attractive to others), its political values such as democracy and human rights (when it lives up to them), and its policies (when they are seen as legitimate.) How a government behaves at home (for example, protecting a free press and the right to protest), in international institutions (consulting others and multilateralism), and in foreign policy (promoting development and human rights) can attract others by example. Wednesday’s example was awful, but we may recover from it."

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06.01.2021

"Mission Failure: How the U.S. Capitol was Stormed"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/mission-failure-how-us-capitol-was-stormed-175944

Mit seiner Rolle als "Anstifter" des Sturms auf das US-Kapitol habe Donald Trump wohl jede Chance auf eine erneute Präsidentschaftskandidatur in vier Jahren verspielt, meint Dov S. Zakheim. "Many leaders of America’s allies have expressed shock at the events in downtown Washington. On the other hand, the likes of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and the Ayatollahs can only be smirking at America’s misfortunes. None of this appears to matter to Donald Trump. His only concern is somehow to reverse the outcome of the presidential election, by whatever means that remain available to him. Not only will he not succeed, but as the instigator of the worst assault on America’s democratic institutions in more than a century, he has probably shattered his prospects of returning to the White House in four years’ time. And should that be the case, America will be much better for it."

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02.01.2021

"Trump Was Right to Question the Carter Doctrine, Biden Should Too"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-was-right-question-carter-doctrine-biden-should-too-175572

Nikolas K. Gvosdev hofft, dass Joe Biden die sogenannte "Carter-Doktrin", die den Nahen Osten praktisch zur amerikanischen Einflusszone erklärte, kritisch hinterfragt. "In recent years, (…) economic, technological, and geopolitical changes have eroded the strategic foundations of positions. In January 2020, President Donald Trump even signaled that the Carter Doctrine might no longer be operative, given those shifts. At first glance, we might assume that a Biden national security team will automatically reverse any Trump-era departures from the U.S. national security status quo. But three trends that are likely to gain momentum during Biden’s tenure in office will continue to call into question the future utility of the Carter Doctrine."

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29.12.2020

"Joe Biden Must Embrace Liberal Nationalism to Lead America Forward"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/joe-biden-must-embrace-liberal-nationalism-lead-america-forward-1749
28

Nach Ansicht des Politikwissenschaftlers John J. Mearsheimer sollte der kommende US-Präsident Joe Biden versuchen, einen neuen "Amerikanischen Nationalismus" zu entwickeln, um das Land zu einen. "The United States is not simply a liberal state, it is a liberal nation-state. Over the past three decades, the ruling elites in both political parties have lost sight of the fact that we are ultimately a nation — what Benedict Anderson famously called an 'imagined community' — not just a collection of individuals pursuing their own selfish interests. We will always have our differences — and sometimes they will be profound — but we are still part of a larger community that must also recognize that we have shared values and responsibilities toward each other. (…) Trump understood the importance of American nationalism, which helped him get elected in 2016. But he failed to deliver once in office, simply because he acted not as a unifier, but as the great divider. He helped sunder the nation further, although his predecessors had already seriously damaged it. Biden should work overtime to remedy this problem and make America once-again a formidable liberal nation-state."

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15.12.2020

"The Ethiopian Civil War is Empowering Africa’s Terrorists"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/ethiopian-civil-war-empowering-africa%E2%80%99s-terrorists-17444
0

Jack Erickson fürchtet, dass der aktuelle Konflikt in Äthiopien zum Abzug äthiopischer Friedenstruppen aus Somalia führen und so den Extremisten in der Region in die Hände spielen könnte. "(…) to safeguard itself from jihadi influence, Ethiopia has historically been involved in a number of interventions in Somalia. But the eruption of violence in the Tigray region has forced Addis Ababa to reduce its foreign commitments. Last week, around 3,000 Ethiopian troops deployed in Somalia (separate from the AMISOM mission) were withdrawn to support the government’s campaign against the TPLF. Additionally, Ethiopia contributes over 4,000 troops to AMISOM, and while most still remain in Somalia, Ethiopia’s Tigrayan officers serving in the mission are being sent home or kept in their barracks. Furthermore, hundreds of Tigrayan peacekeepers under AMISOM have had their weapons confiscated. (…) A continued conflict in northern Ethiopia may see more Ethiopian peacekeepers withdrawn from Somalia, creating a vacuum that may be easily exploited by al-Shabaab militants."

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15.12.2020

"NATO's New Purpose: An Alliance Reborn to Take on China?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/natos-new-purpose-alliance-reborn-take-china-174488

Gil Barndollar rät davon ab, der NATO durch eine Konfrontation Chinas einen neuen Zweck verschaffen zu wollen. "(…) NATO members should resist any attempt to substantially reorient the alliance on countering China. NATO lacks the military tools, the societal will, and the strategic imperative to cast its gaze east of Suez. NATO’s navies are not up to the task. (…) NATO has also repeatedly shown that it doesn’t do 'out of area' missions well. The much-lauded two-decade commitment to Afghanistan is a case in point. (…) The other elephant in the room is even larger: the lack of European will to confront China. Leaders like Stoltenberg may announce that 'China does not share our values,' but aside from this boilerplate rhetoric, there is little evidence that European NATO members have any enthusiasm for a clash with Beijing. (…) Instead of dragging Europe into a competition with China for which it lacks both the means and the motivation, NATO would best serve all of its members, including the United States, by maintaining a laser focus on the security threats facing Europe."

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15.12.2020

"Britain is Thinking of Buying Leopard Tanks from Germany"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/britain-thinking-buying-leopard-tanks-germany-174451

Das britische Militär überlegt Peter Suciu zufolge, seine alternden Panzerstreitkräfte durch deutsche Kampfpanzer des Typs Leopard 2 zu modernisieren. "The British have two options - try to upgrade some of their older Challenger tanks, or buy new Leopards from Germany. The irony of Britain, the country that invented the tank, buying from Germany, against whom that invention was targeted, has been noted. More than 104 years after the British Army adopted the first tanks, which were deployed on the western front to smash through the German lines during the First World War, it now appears German tanks could be headed to the United Kingdom. Not as an invasion force but because the nation that pioneered the tank simply might have to adopt a foreign tank. There aren’t really many alternatives — at least not cost-effective ones."

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13.12.2020

"How Russia Sent Nearly Every Part of Its Military To Fight in Syria"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/how-russia-sent-nearly-every-part-its-military-fight-syria-17425
2

Russland habe den Konflikt in Syrien genutzt, um seine militärischen Kapazitäten in Kampfsituationen ausgiebig zu "testen", schreibt Sebastien Roblin. "Much as the Spanish Civil War served as a testing ground for Stukas and mechanized warfare tactics, the Syrian conflict was also exploited as a live-fire testing range for a new generation of Russian weaponry and operational methods. This was made all the clearer by systematic efforts to deploy every type of combat aircraft in the Russian inventory, including strategic bombers that had never before dropped a weapon in anger over sixty years and non-weapons-capable stealth fighter prototypes."

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11.12.2020

"The Blessings of the Moroccan-Israel Agreement"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/blessings-moroccan-israel-agreement-174344

Der marokkanische Verleger Ahmed Charai hält das neue Abkommen zwischen Marokko und Israel über die Aufnahme diplomatischer Beziehungen dagegen für einen weiteren Schritt zur erfolgreichen Umsetzung der "strategischen Vision" des Nahost-Vermittlers Jared Kushner, der im Nahen Osten als "kreativer Störer" eingefahrener diplomatischer Konventionen aufgetreten sei. "Peace between Morocco and Israel will find its discontents, to be sure, both within the kingdom and elsewhere. But its firm foundation — centuries of shared history — will ensure that it outlasts its detractors. In my country, moreover, millions of young people have tired of extremist, xenophobic ideologies and want the opportunities and benefits which only peace and partnership can bring. They see in Israel a strong partner in developing their economy, spreading opportunity, and securing Morocco’s future."

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09.12.2020

"Why an Indo-Pacific NATO Is Unlikely to Happen"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-indo-pacific-nato-unlikely-happen-174109

Zhuoran Li hält die Entstehung eines ostasiatischen Militärbündnisses nach dem Vorbild der NATO für unwahrscheinlich. "There are two main reasons behind the lack of multilateralism in the Asian-Pacific. First, many American partners in Asia are not 'normal' states with full sovereignty. Japan delegates its security policy to the United States, while the Korean military is under joint command with the American force. Taiwan, a de facto American alliance, is not even formally recognized by the United States as an independent state. A single security organization that considers these differences is nearly impossible. Thus, the United States uses bilateral treaties to expedite military coordination. Second, bilateral treaties in East Asia give the United States more influence over its allies. Washington and its Asian allies share security interests, such as promoting regional stability and encountering Chinese and North Korean threats. However, there are conflicts of interest among them. (…) A multilateral organization like Quad is not useless. It provides a forum for members to address their shared concerns and put pressure on Beijing jointly. Furthermore, communication opens additional bilateral cooperation opportunities among members. However, a NATO-like alliance is unlikely to emerge anytime soon."

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03.12.2020

"Nagorno-Karabakh: This Could Be How the Next Caucasus War Begins"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/nagorno-karabakh-could-be-how-next-caucasus-war-begins-173697

Michael Rubin warnt westliche Diplomaten, sich nach dem Waffenstillstandsabkommen in Bergkarabach entspannt zurückzulehnen. "There are two problems: First is the use of the plural 'links' to connect the two portions of Azerbaijan separated by Armenia. That suggests more than one road or railroad and the further bifurcation of Armenian territory. That might be a diplomatic spoiler to any hope that peace will quickly follow the ceasefire, but it is unlikely alone to be a casus belli. Rather, the second problem will be the Turkish truck traffic which will use the new route both to consolidate Turkish influence in Azerbaijan and extend Turkey’s economic and cultural ties to Central Asia. Should the traffic flow normally, there will be no issue. But should a sniper, for example, kill a Turkish truck driver, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will both blame Armenia and demand a buffer zone to ensure safe passage along the routes. (…) No Armenian government, neither that of incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan nor any opposition figure, will be able to accede to a Turkish ultimatum to cede control over wide swaths of Armenian territory. Any buffer zone demand will, in effect, partition Armenia. The Armenian military, however, will be unable to match Turkey in either equipment or manpower. The only wildcard in such a scenario is Russia but the events of the past month suggest Erdoğan’s overconfidence trumps his fear of Russian deterrence."

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