US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

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19.01.2021

"Could Europe’s INSTEX Help Save the Iran Nuclear Deal?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/could-europe%E2%80%99s-instex-help-save-iran-nuclear-deal-176660

Das von der EU gebildete Spezialinstitut INSTEX soll europäischen Unternehmen ermöglichen, trotz der US-Sanktionen weiter Geschäfte mit dem Iran zu betreiben. Die Plattform könnte nach dem Antritt der neuen US-Regierung neue Bedeutung erhalten, schreibt Francis Shin. "As INSTEX was designed to enable greater humanitarian trade with Iran without violating the United States’ sanctions, the Biden administration could encourage more European Union member countries (and possibly even Russia too) to commit to INSTEX during negotiations as part of a series of confidence-building measures. Considering the current pandemic situation, increasing medical equipment exports via INSTEX would be a good start. The Biden administration could further engage with the INSTEX member countries on planning sanctions relief on Iran, thereby increasing INSTEX’s effectiveness by giving it more room to operate. The shipment of specialized medicines to Iran would be another suitable platform for increased Transatlantic cooperation."

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17.01.2021

"Why Precision Guided Missiles Weren’t Enough to Defeat ISIS"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/why-precision-guided-missiles-weren%E2%80%99t-enough-defeat-isis
-176620

Der begrenzte Erfolg bei der militärischen Bekämpfung des "Islamischen Staates" kann nach Ansicht von Robert Farley auch auf den bevorzugten Einsatz von präzisionsgelenkter Munition zurückgeführt werden. "How has the growth of the Precision-Guided Munitions (PGM) complex changed the balance of international power? More specifically, how has the U.S. military’s embrace of this system of weapons affected its ability to accomplish U.S. national goals? The president’s decision to pursue the war against ISIS strictly through the means of airpower and seapower makes the question particularly relevant. The United States will fight ISIS with precision-guided munitions, and apparently little else. It’s worth asking how effective they are in accomplishing national ends. The answer, it turns out, is surprisingly mixed."

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13.01.2021

"ISIS, Reborn: The Islamic State’s African Revival is a Lethal Blind Spot"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/isis-reborn-islamic-state%E2%80%99s-african-revival-lethal-blind-spo
t-176301

Der "Islamische Staat" habe in Subsahara-Afrika gleich vier neue Rückzugsorte, schreibt Jordan Cope. Die "Wiedergeburt" der Terrormiliz in der Region sei ein "tödlicher blinder Fleck" der Sicherheitspolitik. "While history echoes, ISIS’s pivot to Africa and new festering hotspots therein could prove more dangerous than those of its Middle Eastern past. There, ISIS has strategically established territory in cross-border zones. This tactic has allowed it to conduct attacks and disappear across borders, rendering it effectively untouchable to all affected countries — which are amongst the world’s most impoverished and unprepared to dislodge ISIS. Some hotspots also approximate natural resource basins, whose wealth, if seized, could enormously enrich the ISIS network and its capabilities. Given the implications of inaction — an emboldened ISIS network with multiple safe havens from which it can attack the West — ISIS’s African presence commands greater attention as a top security concern. Four hot spots warrant attention. First is West Africa, which endures multiple internal insurgencies. Most concerning is that governing Boko Haram whose presence envelopes Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon."

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12.01.2021

"Kim Jong-Un Wants a Good-Will Gesture, and Biden Should Give It"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/kim-jong-un-wants-good-will-gesture-and-biden-should-give-i
t-176276

Bonnie Kristian empfiehlt der kommenden US-Regierung, Nordkorea mit einer Geste des guten Willens entgegen zu kommen. "(…) look past this nonsense and it’s possible to see that Kim is attempting some rapprochement with the incoming Biden administration. Pyongyang will 'not rule out diplomacy,' he said, describing the weapons build-up of which he’d boasted as a way to 'drive diplomacy in the right direction and guarantee its success' for bringing 'peace' to the Korean Peninsula. He indicated a willingness to shift his regime’s behavior should President-elect Joe Biden move away from the Trump administration’s counterproductive 'maximum pressure' approach. Pyongyang will answer 'force with force,' Kim said, and 'goodwill with goodwill.' This may be as close as Kim will come to pleading with Biden for relief from the punishing sanctions regime the U.S. leads against North Korea. It is a crucial opening, and one Biden should use to shake off the torpor into which U.S.-North Korean relations have fallen since the first summit between Kim and President Donald Trump in 2018."

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10.01.2021

"Yes, China Is a Military Superpower"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/yes-china-military-superpower-176048

Nach Ansicht von Sebastien Roblin ist es an der Zeit, China als militärische "Supermacht" anzuerkennen. "On October 1, 2019 the People’s Republic of China’s celebrated the seventieth anniversary of its official founding after Mao Zedong consolidated the Chinese Communist Party’s control over mainland China. For the occasion, Beijing paraded cutting-edge military systems on Tiananmen Square deemed ready to unveil before audiences both domestic and international. Formerly reliant on reverse-engineered Soviet weapons from the 1950s, China has leveraged forty years of sustained economic growth to not only develop new tanks, jet fighters and aircraft carriers, but has invested heavily in combat drones, stealth technology, and long-range guided missiles."

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10.01.2021

"Why America Needs to Crack Down on Rightwing and Leftwing Anarchy"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-america-needs-crack-down-rightwing-and-leftwing-anarchy-176093

Sumantra Maitra empfiehlt den Demokraten und Republikanern, gemeinsam gegen gewaltbereite "aufständische Kräfte" im rechten und linken Spektrum vorzugehen. "The same people who supported political violence, and opposed any police action are now taking a political position that contradicts their original stance. The condemnation of last night’s storming was universal from the Left and Right. But the condemnation of the yearlong violence that preceded that came only from the Right, not from the Left, which spent months trying to justify Black Lives Matter and Antifa. This is not mere hypocrisy, but an establishment of a new hierarchy. State authority in the United States appears to have crumbled, and its institutions seem helpless in face of yearlong chaos. While a majority of the protesters in any protest Left and Right are peaceful, it is also irrelevant as they are also mostly swayed by criminals acting in their name, and most people do not seem to know that choices and actions have consequences. The violence in the Capitol didn’t just emerge ex nihilo. Quite the contrary. For four years violence and counterviolence were normalized. Op-eds were written about how protests reform society. Books were written in justification of looting and arson. And now the republic itself is in danger of insurrection."

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09.01.2021

"Why the West Isn’t Confronting China Over Coronavirus"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-west-isn%E2%80%99t-confronting-china-over-coronavirus-175884

Die unterschiedliche Perspektive auf die China-Frage wird auch 2021 das hartnäckigste Problem der transatlantischen Kooperation bleiben, meint Andrew A. Michta. "In part, Western restraint in criticizing Beijing can be explained by our unprecedented and continued economic dependence on China for key manufactured goods and supplies that the offshoring of manufacturing has wrought onto the most advanced Western economies. The pandemic has exposed the extent to which the radical centralization of key supply chains owing to Chinese mercantilism (and Western greed) has made China the sole provider of key medicines, Personal Protective Equipment and other equipment needed to manage the global health emergency. The Western reticence to criticize China is also due in part to the extent to which the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been able to influence and shape the direction of our internal policy debate, not just in the United States but also in Europe and elsewhere, with Beijing leveraging its access to every layer of Western societies. (…) While America sees China increasingly as a cross-domain threat, Europe still considers it to be predominantly an economic problem set, and in many respects also as an economic opportunity."

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09.01.2021

"American Soft Power Will Survive Donald Trump"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/american-soft-power-will-survive-donald-trump-176013

Joseph S. Nye, Jr. bezweifelt, dass die "soft power" der USA durch die aktuelle Krise in Washington nachhaltig beschädigt werden wird. "A country’s soft power comes primarily from three sources: its culture (when it is attractive to others), its political values such as democracy and human rights (when it lives up to them), and its policies (when they are seen as legitimate.) How a government behaves at home (for example, protecting a free press and the right to protest), in international institutions (consulting others and multilateralism), and in foreign policy (promoting development and human rights) can attract others by example. Wednesday’s example was awful, but we may recover from it."

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06.01.2021

"Mission Failure: How the U.S. Capitol was Stormed"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/mission-failure-how-us-capitol-was-stormed-175944

Mit seiner Rolle als "Anstifter" des Sturms auf das US-Kapitol habe Donald Trump wohl jede Chance auf eine erneute Präsidentschaftskandidatur in vier Jahren verspielt, meint Dov S. Zakheim. "Many leaders of America’s allies have expressed shock at the events in downtown Washington. On the other hand, the likes of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and the Ayatollahs can only be smirking at America’s misfortunes. None of this appears to matter to Donald Trump. His only concern is somehow to reverse the outcome of the presidential election, by whatever means that remain available to him. Not only will he not succeed, but as the instigator of the worst assault on America’s democratic institutions in more than a century, he has probably shattered his prospects of returning to the White House in four years’ time. And should that be the case, America will be much better for it."

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02.01.2021

"Trump Was Right to Question the Carter Doctrine, Biden Should Too"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-was-right-question-carter-doctrine-biden-should-too-175572

Nikolas K. Gvosdev hofft, dass Joe Biden die sogenannte "Carter-Doktrin", die den Nahen Osten praktisch zur amerikanischen Einflusszone erklärte, kritisch hinterfragt. "In recent years, (…) economic, technological, and geopolitical changes have eroded the strategic foundations of positions. In January 2020, President Donald Trump even signaled that the Carter Doctrine might no longer be operative, given those shifts. At first glance, we might assume that a Biden national security team will automatically reverse any Trump-era departures from the U.S. national security status quo. But three trends that are likely to gain momentum during Biden’s tenure in office will continue to call into question the future utility of the Carter Doctrine."

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29.12.2020

"Joe Biden Must Embrace Liberal Nationalism to Lead America Forward"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/joe-biden-must-embrace-liberal-nationalism-lead-america-forward-1749
28

Nach Ansicht des Politikwissenschaftlers John J. Mearsheimer sollte der kommende US-Präsident Joe Biden versuchen, einen neuen "Amerikanischen Nationalismus" zu entwickeln, um das Land zu einen. "The United States is not simply a liberal state, it is a liberal nation-state. Over the past three decades, the ruling elites in both political parties have lost sight of the fact that we are ultimately a nation — what Benedict Anderson famously called an 'imagined community' — not just a collection of individuals pursuing their own selfish interests. We will always have our differences — and sometimes they will be profound — but we are still part of a larger community that must also recognize that we have shared values and responsibilities toward each other. (…) Trump understood the importance of American nationalism, which helped him get elected in 2016. But he failed to deliver once in office, simply because he acted not as a unifier, but as the great divider. He helped sunder the nation further, although his predecessors had already seriously damaged it. Biden should work overtime to remedy this problem and make America once-again a formidable liberal nation-state."

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15.12.2020

"The Ethiopian Civil War is Empowering Africa’s Terrorists"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/ethiopian-civil-war-empowering-africa%E2%80%99s-terrorists-17444
0

Jack Erickson fürchtet, dass der aktuelle Konflikt in Äthiopien zum Abzug äthiopischer Friedenstruppen aus Somalia führen und so den Extremisten in der Region in die Hände spielen könnte. "(…) to safeguard itself from jihadi influence, Ethiopia has historically been involved in a number of interventions in Somalia. But the eruption of violence in the Tigray region has forced Addis Ababa to reduce its foreign commitments. Last week, around 3,000 Ethiopian troops deployed in Somalia (separate from the AMISOM mission) were withdrawn to support the government’s campaign against the TPLF. Additionally, Ethiopia contributes over 4,000 troops to AMISOM, and while most still remain in Somalia, Ethiopia’s Tigrayan officers serving in the mission are being sent home or kept in their barracks. Furthermore, hundreds of Tigrayan peacekeepers under AMISOM have had their weapons confiscated. (…) A continued conflict in northern Ethiopia may see more Ethiopian peacekeepers withdrawn from Somalia, creating a vacuum that may be easily exploited by al-Shabaab militants."

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15.12.2020

"NATO's New Purpose: An Alliance Reborn to Take on China?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/natos-new-purpose-alliance-reborn-take-china-174488

Gil Barndollar rät davon ab, der NATO durch eine Konfrontation Chinas einen neuen Zweck verschaffen zu wollen. "(…) NATO members should resist any attempt to substantially reorient the alliance on countering China. NATO lacks the military tools, the societal will, and the strategic imperative to cast its gaze east of Suez. NATO’s navies are not up to the task. (…) NATO has also repeatedly shown that it doesn’t do 'out of area' missions well. The much-lauded two-decade commitment to Afghanistan is a case in point. (…) The other elephant in the room is even larger: the lack of European will to confront China. Leaders like Stoltenberg may announce that 'China does not share our values,' but aside from this boilerplate rhetoric, there is little evidence that European NATO members have any enthusiasm for a clash with Beijing. (…) Instead of dragging Europe into a competition with China for which it lacks both the means and the motivation, NATO would best serve all of its members, including the United States, by maintaining a laser focus on the security threats facing Europe."

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15.12.2020

"Britain is Thinking of Buying Leopard Tanks from Germany"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/britain-thinking-buying-leopard-tanks-germany-174451

Das britische Militär überlegt Peter Suciu zufolge, seine alternden Panzerstreitkräfte durch deutsche Kampfpanzer des Typs Leopard 2 zu modernisieren. "The British have two options - try to upgrade some of their older Challenger tanks, or buy new Leopards from Germany. The irony of Britain, the country that invented the tank, buying from Germany, against whom that invention was targeted, has been noted. More than 104 years after the British Army adopted the first tanks, which were deployed on the western front to smash through the German lines during the First World War, it now appears German tanks could be headed to the United Kingdom. Not as an invasion force but because the nation that pioneered the tank simply might have to adopt a foreign tank. There aren’t really many alternatives — at least not cost-effective ones."

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13.12.2020

"How Russia Sent Nearly Every Part of Its Military To Fight in Syria"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/how-russia-sent-nearly-every-part-its-military-fight-syria-17425
2

Russland habe den Konflikt in Syrien genutzt, um seine militärischen Kapazitäten in Kampfsituationen ausgiebig zu "testen", schreibt Sebastien Roblin. "Much as the Spanish Civil War served as a testing ground for Stukas and mechanized warfare tactics, the Syrian conflict was also exploited as a live-fire testing range for a new generation of Russian weaponry and operational methods. This was made all the clearer by systematic efforts to deploy every type of combat aircraft in the Russian inventory, including strategic bombers that had never before dropped a weapon in anger over sixty years and non-weapons-capable stealth fighter prototypes."

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11.12.2020

"The Blessings of the Moroccan-Israel Agreement"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/blessings-moroccan-israel-agreement-174344

Der marokkanische Verleger Ahmed Charai hält das neue Abkommen zwischen Marokko und Israel über die Aufnahme diplomatischer Beziehungen dagegen für einen weiteren Schritt zur erfolgreichen Umsetzung der "strategischen Vision" des Nahost-Vermittlers Jared Kushner, der im Nahen Osten als "kreativer Störer" eingefahrener diplomatischer Konventionen aufgetreten sei. "Peace between Morocco and Israel will find its discontents, to be sure, both within the kingdom and elsewhere. But its firm foundation — centuries of shared history — will ensure that it outlasts its detractors. In my country, moreover, millions of young people have tired of extremist, xenophobic ideologies and want the opportunities and benefits which only peace and partnership can bring. They see in Israel a strong partner in developing their economy, spreading opportunity, and securing Morocco’s future."

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09.12.2020

"Why an Indo-Pacific NATO Is Unlikely to Happen"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-indo-pacific-nato-unlikely-happen-174109

Zhuoran Li hält die Entstehung eines ostasiatischen Militärbündnisses nach dem Vorbild der NATO für unwahrscheinlich. "There are two main reasons behind the lack of multilateralism in the Asian-Pacific. First, many American partners in Asia are not 'normal' states with full sovereignty. Japan delegates its security policy to the United States, while the Korean military is under joint command with the American force. Taiwan, a de facto American alliance, is not even formally recognized by the United States as an independent state. A single security organization that considers these differences is nearly impossible. Thus, the United States uses bilateral treaties to expedite military coordination. Second, bilateral treaties in East Asia give the United States more influence over its allies. Washington and its Asian allies share security interests, such as promoting regional stability and encountering Chinese and North Korean threats. However, there are conflicts of interest among them. (…) A multilateral organization like Quad is not useless. It provides a forum for members to address their shared concerns and put pressure on Beijing jointly. Furthermore, communication opens additional bilateral cooperation opportunities among members. However, a NATO-like alliance is unlikely to emerge anytime soon."

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03.12.2020

"Nagorno-Karabakh: This Could Be How the Next Caucasus War Begins"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/nagorno-karabakh-could-be-how-next-caucasus-war-begins-173697

Michael Rubin warnt westliche Diplomaten, sich nach dem Waffenstillstandsabkommen in Bergkarabach entspannt zurückzulehnen. "There are two problems: First is the use of the plural 'links' to connect the two portions of Azerbaijan separated by Armenia. That suggests more than one road or railroad and the further bifurcation of Armenian territory. That might be a diplomatic spoiler to any hope that peace will quickly follow the ceasefire, but it is unlikely alone to be a casus belli. Rather, the second problem will be the Turkish truck traffic which will use the new route both to consolidate Turkish influence in Azerbaijan and extend Turkey’s economic and cultural ties to Central Asia. Should the traffic flow normally, there will be no issue. But should a sniper, for example, kill a Turkish truck driver, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will both blame Armenia and demand a buffer zone to ensure safe passage along the routes. (…) No Armenian government, neither that of incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan nor any opposition figure, will be able to accede to a Turkish ultimatum to cede control over wide swaths of Armenian territory. Any buffer zone demand will, in effect, partition Armenia. The Armenian military, however, will be unable to match Turkey in either equipment or manpower. The only wildcard in such a scenario is Russia but the events of the past month suggest Erdoğan’s overconfidence trumps his fear of Russian deterrence."

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29.11.2020

"Israel’s Azerbaijan Mistake"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/israel%E2%80%99s-azerbaijan-mistake-173476

Michael Rubin kommt in seiner Analyse der Beziehungen Israels zu Aserbaidschan zu dem Schluss, dass Israel nicht nur auf die kurzfristigen Vorteile der Kooperation blicken sollte. "Israel’s relations with Azerbaijan have developed over decades. Perhaps the tight embrace of the two states once made sense, but times have changed. Armenia is a democracy, while Azerbaijan has become a family-run dictatorship. Armenia embraces religious freedom while Azerbaijan works with Islamist extremists. Azerbaijan’s hatred toward Armenians further allows Iran to exploit divisions. At the same time, whereas Israel once had few options to fulfill its energy needs, it now can rely not only upon Cyprus and its own Eastern Mediterranean gas fields, but also the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi’s human rights record is far from perfect, but at least it does not incite genocide. Israel need not break ties with Azerbaijan; there is still much about which the two countries can cooperate. But, just as the United States did not let its Arab partners dictate the U.S. relationship with Israel nor let Pakistan and India dictate Washington’s ties to the other, neither should Azerbaijan presume to dictate Israel’s relationship with Armenia."

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29.11.2020

"No, Kosovo Is Not a Precedent for Nagorno-Karabakh"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/no-kosovo-not-precedent-nagorno-karabakh-173478

Einige Beobachter haben angeregt, die Krise in Bergkarabach nach dem Vorbild Kosovos zu lösen. Ayaz Rzayev erteilt dieser Idee eine deutliche Absage. "As British historian Timothy Garton Ash succinctly put it at the time: 'Kosovo is unique, and there will be more Kosovos.' This was first demonstrated in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008, and then in Crimea in 2014. After the Crimean referendum, Russian president Vladimir Putin argued that the Kosovo case which 'our western colleagues created with their own hands in a very similar situation' was an appropriate precedent for Crimea. The Crimea case has shed light on just how detrimental introducing exemptions to already established norms of international law can be. Separatists became convinced that the West’s stance on separatism is largely an issue of framing, regardless of how many times the Western officials have stated otherwise. So, they believe that they can succeed in lobbying their case in the West if only they can construct an attractive enough narrative that will appeal to the Western audience."

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23.11.2020

"U.S. Troops in Germany Should Be Redeployed to Poland, the Baltics and the Black Sea"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-troops-germany-should-be-redeployed-poland-baltics-and-black-se
a-173167

John Rossomando erklärt, warum er eine Verlegung der in Deutschland stationierten US-Truppen nach Osteuropa befürwortet. "The NATO establishment has failed to deter Russia’s repeated provocations against NATO’s Eastern flank in recent years. These include the introduction of nuclear-tipped Iskander short-range ballistic missiles that threaten Warsaw along with Russia’s invasion and annexation of the Crimea and invasion of Eastern Ukraine in 2014. Deterrence against potential Russian aggression should dictate strategy instead of outdated territorial orthodoxies. Today, the military threat to NATO and Europe lies 800-1,000 miles to the East. This is not 1985."

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18.11.2020

"Africa’s Rasputin: Why Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki Has Joined Ethiopia’s Civil War"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/africa%E2%80%99s-rasputin-why-eritrea%E2%80%99s-isaias-afwerki-has
-joined-ethiopia%E2%80%99s-civil-war-172764

Daniel Haile beschreibt den Präsidenten Eritreas, Isaias Afwerki, in diesem wenig schmeichelhaften Porträt als "diabolischen Diktator", dessen Machtspiele auch zum aktuellen Konflikt in Äthiopien beigetragen hätten. "East Africa is synonymous with instability, famine, non-state actors, and failed states. Still, the most significant contribution the Horn of Africa has made is producing quality dictators such as Haile Selassie, Mengistu Hailemariam, Meles Zenawi, Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, Omar Al Bashir, and Isaias Afwerki. If there is a game of thrones for the 'dictator of dictators,' Isaias Afwerki would win without contest. (…) The instability in the Horn of Africa, especially in Somalia and Ethiopia, can be traced to the malign influence of the Eritrean regime and Afwerki’s vendetta against Meles Zenawi, the last benevolent dictator of Ethiopia and founder of TPLF [Tigray People's Liberation Front] as both a political and military entity."

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16.11.2020

"History Tells Us Joe Biden's North Korea Coalition Idea Will Fail"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/gordon-chang-history-tells-us-joe-bidens-north-korea-coalit
ion-idea-will-fail

Dem Wall Street Journal zufolge will Joe Biden als US-Präsident zu einer Nordkorea-Strategie zurückkehren, die andere Länder an den Verhandlungen beteiligt. Gordon G. Chang erinnert daran, dass dieser Ansatz bereits früher gescheitert sei. "Presumably, the new team thinks, as did President George W. Bush, that the U.S. could bring pressure to bear by presenting the North Korean regime with a united international community. Bush believed that talks with six parties — Japan and Russia were the two other powers at the table then — would prevent Pyongyang from playing one country off against the others. The Six-Party Talks were a failure then, and the multilateral approach has even less chance of working now. Now, China and South Korea are on increasingly friendly terms with North Korea, so the Biden administration would be creating a coalition against itself by trying to involve these two countries."

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10.11.2020

"The Problem with the Nagorno-Karabakh Ceasefire Agreement"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/problem-nagorno-karabakh-ceasefire-agreement-172313

Die vereinbarte Waffenruhe in Bergkarabach sollte nach Ansicht von Michael Rubin nicht als Anfang vom Ende, sondern lediglich als weiteres Kapitel des Konflikts betrachtet werden. Die Rolle der Türkei in diesem Prozess sei hochproblematisch. "To station German troops in Israel, Japanese troops in Korea, or Italian troops in Libya would be historically tone-deaf. To allow Turkish troops into Armenia or Armenian-populated districts of Nagorno-Karabakh is worse because the Turkish government continues to deny Armenia’s genocide and because Erdoğan and many elements within his government continue to speak in terms of religious warfare. (…) Azerbaijan’s offensive is also a slap in the face of the Minsk process which had sought to negotiate an end to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict since shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union. That Russia essentially cut the United States out of its separate agreement underscores the folly of relying on multilateral groupings and is a victory for Russia that does not escape any potential U.S. allies in the region. That United States has appeared to acquiesce to the agreement which empowers Russia and undermines a nascent democracy underscores the State Department’s humiliation and strategic confusion."

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09.11.2020

"Ethiopia in Crisis: Will Secession or Civil War Erupt in the Horn of Africa?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/ethiopia-crisis-will-secession-or-civil-war-erupt-horn-africa-
172207

Daniel Haile erklärt, warum er eine Aufteilung des Staates Äthiopien unter den aktuellen Bedingungen für wahrscheinlich hält. "Ethiopia is at the crossroads, and the current ethnic divide in Ethiopia will eventually lead to the state’s dismemberment. If the current instability in Ethiopia prolongs, then, unfortunately, Ethiopia will suffer the same fate as Yugoslavia. The previous strongman of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi, the architect of ethnic federalism, is long gone, but his enigmatic presence is dearly missed in Addis Ababa. Zenawi’s leadership was paramount for Ethiopia’s stability; Zenawi was for Ethiopia as Josip Broz Tito was for Yugoslavia. Therefore, where is Ethiopia heading: disintegration, or reform under Ethiopia’s new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed?"

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04.11.2020

"Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons: The Most Dangerous WMD Program?"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/pakistans-nuclear-weapons-most-dangerous-wmd-program-171866

Aufgrund des wachsenden Atomwaffenarsenals Pakistans hält Kyle Mizokami ein Rüstungskontrollregime in der Region für dringend notwendig. "Sandwiched between Iran, China, India and Afghanistan, Pakistan lives in a complicated neighborhood with a variety of security issues. One of the nine known states known to have nuclear weapons, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and doctrine are continually evolving to match perceived threats. A nuclear power for decades, Pakistan is now attempting to construct a nuclear triad of its own, making its nuclear arsenal resilient and capable of devastating retaliatory strikes. (…) Pakistan is clearly developing a robust nuclear capability that can not only deter but fight a nuclear war. It is also dealing with internal security issues that could threaten the integrity of its nuclear arsenal. Pakistan and India are clearly in the midst of a nuclear arms race that could, in relative terms, lead to absurdly high nuclear stockpiles reminiscent of the Cold War. It is clear that an arms-control agreement for the subcontinent is desperately needed."

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01.11.2020

"Trump’s Foreign Policy Legacy Is His Ability to Balance Chaos in Asia"

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump%E2%80%99s-foreign-policy-legacy-his-ability-balance-chaos-asia
-171718

Sumantra Maitra glaubt, dass das strategische Erbe der Asien-Politik Donald Trumps nach dessen möglicher Wahlniederlage weiter bestehen könnte. "The future U.S. grand strategy in Asia will be predicated on two assumptions. One, China will continue to rise, and commensurate to its rise will aspire for regional hegemony. And two, American relative power will continue to decline in a potential multipolar world, thereby necessitating a strategy of buck-passing to regional powers. Regardless of which person or party is in power in DC, structural forces will compel these moves. The chessboard is already set for a long game, and the pawns are already moving in place. For all Trump’s talk of a return to a great-power rivalry, his facilitating an alliance with India and arming Taiwan as a frontier state against a rising China will be his defining legacy — a strategy that will likely continue even if Joe Biden wins the presidency."

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26.10.2020

"China Is a Military Powerhouse Thanks to Russia"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/china-military-powerhouse-thanks-russia-171370

Präsident Putin hat Mark Episkopos zufolge angedeutet, dass die Beziehungen Russlands zu China wenn nötig durch ein formelles Militärbündnis ergänzt werden könnten. Die militärische Kooperation beider Länder habe bereits heute ein beträchtliches Ausmaß erreicht. "During his prepared remarks at his annual Valdai Discussion Club appearance late last week, Putin noted that 'China is moving quickly towards superpower status.' When queried on the future possibility of a formal Russia-China military alliance, Putin responded, 'we have always assumed that the extent of our relationship has reached such a degree of cooperation and trust that we don’t need it.' But, he added, 'it is theoretically quite possible to imagine it.' (…) Putin’s statement is particularly striking in its historical context. Since the early days of China’s military modernization drive, the PLA has relied extensively on Soviet — and now Russian — technical expertise, licensing deals, and import contracts. (…) While not formally considered as a military alliance, this steady stream of technology transfers intertwines with a long history of joint war games and regional military exercises to form the bedrock of a well-established, strategically salient Russo-Chinese security relationship."

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26.10.2020

"The Nagorno-Karabakh War Widens the Ethnic Divide in Iran"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/nagorno-karabakh-war-widens-ethnic-divide-iran-171393

Der Konflikt in Bergkarabach habe die ethnischen Spannungen im benachbarten Iran verstärkt, berichtet Ramin Jabbarli. "The war has ignited waves of protests from dissidents within neighboring Iran, where Azerbaijani Turks comprise approximately one-third of Iran’s 84 million population. Various cities in both Iran’s northwestern provinces and the capital Tehran have witnessed such protests. From the dawn of the conflict on September 27, authorities have arrested over 200 Iranian-Azerbaijanis peacefully protesting Russian military aid to Armenia. Some of the arrestees were reportedly tortured and beaten by both police and intelligence officers."

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26.10.2020

"Why America First Is Here To Stay, Even if Donald Trump Is Defeated"

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/2020-election/why-america-first-here-stay-even-if-donald-trump-defeated
-171420

Michael Lind erwartet, dass sich die amerikanische Außenpolitik auch nach einer möglichen Wahlniederlage Donald Trumps in oft rücksichtsloser Weise übernehmen wird. Eine Ursache sei der große Einfluss der "atlantischen Identitätspolitik" innerhalb der amerikanischen Eliten. "The extent to which White nationalist identity politics has informed Donald Trump’s America First nationalism can be debated; while it has played some part its role has been greatly exaggerated (…). What has been less discussed is the role of a different kind of identity politics that animates many of the affluent and educated Americans and Europeans who despise Trump: Atlanticist identity politics. (…) Much of the American population, then, will continue to adhere to the vision of America as a New World, albeit a New World whose southern border with the dangerous Old World is the Rio Grande rather than Tierra del Fuego. These populist New World continentalists (a less pejorative term than isolationists) are almost completely unrepresented in elite U.S. foreign policy circles. The absence of their views in policymaking circles creates periodic political crises over American foreign policy, because both Europhile/Atlanticist progressives and Anglophile conservatives, again and again, overdraw the limited bank account of American public support for their overly-ambitious foreign policy schemes. Whether or not this is Donald Trump’s last year as president, the near-certainty of new episodes of reckless overreach by American foreign policymakers means that is not the last the country has seen of his America First policy."

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