US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

The National Interest


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"Why a Nuclear-Free North Korea Is A Dream That Needs to Die"

Nach Ansicht von Doug Bandow ist es an der Zeit, sich endgültig vom "Traum" eines atomwaffenfreien Nordkoreas zu verabschieden. "The three-decade anniversary of the start of Korea’s nuclear crisis, which began under the George H.W. Bush administration, is approaching. Washington’s position always has been complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID). (…) What had to be a slim chance of convincing the North to abandon its nuclear program diminished to near-nothingness as Washington directed its military to go about the globe bombing, invading, and occupying other nations at will. Particularly dramatic, and educational for the North, was America’s treatment of Iran and Libya. (…) Unfortunately, the pursuit of denuclearization is a prime example of the perfect becoming the enemy of the good. Demanding that the North give up everything is a nonstarter. Kim will make empty promises in hopes of receiving some benefits along the way. The United States will refuse to provide any inducement, even for actions that would make the peninsula safer and more stable. Hence the present impasse between America and DPRK after two summits."

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"Israel Is Slowly Become a Drone Superpower"

Israel sei dabei, mit immer neuen Innovationen in der militärischen Drohnentechnologie zu einer "Supermacht" in diesem Sektor aufzusteigen, schreibt Seth J. Frantzman. "Israel’s niche today in drone technology is two-fold; it continues to make series of tiered systems from smaller drones to high-altitude surveillance UAVs, as well as pioneering counter-UAV technology. For instance, Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system can be used against drones. Israel also has experimented with a variety of laser systems to shoot down drones. In addition, Israel is building a higher number of small loitering munitions. These weapons, sometimes called 'kamikaze drones,' are basically a flying warhead that can return to base if necessary, but whose real mission is to hover over a target, wait for an opportunity and then be used in precision strikes. Unlike a cruise missile or smart bomb or anti-tank guided missile, these weapons can hover and wait for an enemy to appear in range."

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"Hong Kong Has Fallen — Is Taiwan Next?"—-taiwan-next-165105

Azeem Ibrahim warnt, dass China nach der faktischen "Annexion" Hongkongs als nächstes Ziel Taiwan ins Visier nehmen könnte. "For Beijing, especially for Han nationalists like Xi, the annexation of Taiwan would be the culmination of their dreams of 'national unification.' (…) Of course, there are economic and strategic reasons why China will want to assert sovereign ownership over the island of Taiwan, but fundamentally, this is about the history, and what people like Xi see as the destiny of China under communist rule. This is important to appreciate in order to understand the kinds of costs Beijing is willing to pay in order to impose its will over Taiwan in the same way that it did over Hong Kong. (…) Taiwan will be the 'End Game' for that very same approach to political identity currently in favour at the top of the Chinese Communist Party. And, at this moment in history, it is the last redoubt of resistance left standing."

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"Why A 'Grand Bargain' Between the West and North Korea Is Possible"‘grand-bargain’-between-west-and-north-korea-possib

Trotz der vielen Fehlschläge der amerikanischen Nordkorea-Diplomatie habe Präsident Trump nach Ansicht von Richard Javad Heydarian ein "entscheidendes Ziel" erreicht: Das lange bestehende Tabu direkter Verhandlungen zwischen den USA und Nordkorea sei endgültig gebrochen. Damit sei der Boden für einen diplomatischen Durchbruch bereitet, insbesondere wenn Trump in den kommenden Jahren durch einen reiferen Amtsinhaber ersetzt werden sollte. "To begin with, revolutions in military technology have made Korean War-like mobilization increasingly unappealing. I doubt even North Koreans, despite all their notorious bluster, are interested in repeating the grinding 'total war' that devastated the Korean Peninsula during those opening years of the Cold War. Having mastered nuclear technology, Pyongyang seems less insecure than ever. (…) And for all his faults and blunders, President Donald Trump has achieved a crucial objective: puncturing the taboo of direct negotiations with Pyongyang, in conjunction with Seoul and full support from like-minded regional actors, from Singapore to Vietnam, which hosted the historic summits in the past two years. As a result, a 'grand bargain' between the West and Pyongyang is less improbable than ever, especially if a sound, mature leader occupies the White House in the coming years."

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"Five Reasons Why Zelensky is Failing in Ukraine"

Ein Jahr nach seinem Amtsantritt wirke der ukrainische Präsident Volodymyr Zelensky "matt und besiegt", schreibt Melinda Haring vom Atlantic Council. Sie erläutert fünf kursierende Theorien, die den auffälligen Wandel mehr oder weniger glaubwürdig erklären sollen: "1. Servant of an Oligarch: Zelensky is a puppet of Ihor Kolomoisky. (…) 2. Russian puppet: (…) The theory has superficial appeal, but lacks supporting evidence beyond the circumstantial and, more importantly, fails to take the sheer incompetence in Kyiv into account. 3. Victim of his own inexperience: (…) When this trusted circle disagrees, Zelensky doesn’t know what to do. Insiders tell me that the president trusts no one, wants his people on every committee and board, has no ideology, and insists that everything must be done immediately. He can’t delegate. He ignores his own cabinet and deals directly with ministers and regional leaders. After the series of indefensible personnel decisions this spring, this theory looks increasingly likely. 4. Victim of his own naivete: Zelensky genuinely meant well and ran for president to fix the country. (…) According to former Prime Minister Oleksii Honcharuk, 'Zelensky changed.' (…) 5. No match for the system: It’s impossible to change Ukraine. (…) Ukraine’s modern history makes it impossible to summarily dismiss this theory."

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"Why Donald Trump Should Think Twice About Moving U.S. Troops from Germany to Poland"


Eine Verlegung von US-Truppen aus Deutschland nach Polen wäre auch aufgrund der politischen Entwicklung in Warschau eine schlechte Idee, meint Michael Rubin. "Poland bases might be a no-brainer for the Pentagon but perhaps not for broader American interests, but too often, countries offering bases use American dependence as a means to sidestep reform or backslide on democracy. Poland is in the midst of a democratic backslide. Washington should do nothing that disincentivizes Poland’s increasingly dictatorial regime to return to democracy, even if it means forfeiting a base. (…) This is why not only Congress and the Pentagon, but also the State Department and the National Security Council should consider the impact of rebasing U.S. forces leaving Germany in Poland, especially when other alternatives exist in the Baltics, Romania, or the Czech Republic. The question then becomes whether Poland’s anti-democratic leaders will see the U.S. presence less as a defense against Russia and more as a means to immunize themselves from returning to the democratic order. U.S. forces should be in Europe to protect the liberal order, not to accelerate its end."

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"Three Reasons Moon Jae-in Can Bounce Back from North Korea's Explosive Antics"

Südkoreas Präsident Moon Jae-in könnte aus der aktuellen Konfrontation mit Nordkorea durchaus gestärkt hervorgehen, meint Rob York vom Pacific Forum. "With a single explosion (and several press releases’ worth of invective) North Korea has unraveled Moon’s greatest diplomatic accomplishment. For reasons only the North fully understands, Pyongyang has cut off contact with the South, blown up the short-lived inter-Korean liaison office and released a series of statements so harsh that it boggles the mind that the two leaders literally embraced at the border two years ago. (…) Yet there are three reasons why Moon need not despair yet. 1. When it comes to North Korea, the blinders are off (…) Moon’s diplomacy in 2017-18 accomplished what was intended: it prevented war between the United States and North Korea. Moon should now no longer face pressure to deliver on inter-Korean cooperation because there’s nothing more he could have done. 2. Some of the darker theories about inter-Korean talks appear discredited (…) Rather than a grand conspiracy to create a unified Kimist Korea, it instead appears South Korea has a mere failed attempt to appease a tempestuous tyranny. 3. Moon can now forge a new path. As bad of a month as Moon has had, his party’s commanding lead in the National Assembly remains, and he still has a successor waiting in the wings in representative Lee Nak-yeon. (…) South Korea can also take a page from the ruling bloc in Taiwan — not as a thorn in China’s side or as committed separatists, but as ardent defenders of democracy in a region where it appears increasingly imperiled."

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"Either You are With Us Or Against Us: Gulf States Caught Between America and China"

Die arabischen Golfstaaten sähen sich angesichts der Rivalität zwischen den USA und China zunehmend in einer Zwickmühle, schreibt Yoel Guzansky vom Institute for National Security Studies der Tel Aviv University. "So far, the Gulf states have been able to develop their economic ties with China without damaging ties with the United States They will continue to make efforts to maintain parallel relationships, and will do their utmost to avoid having to “choose sides” between the United States and China. However, as China’s political and security presence increases in the Gulf, the Gulf states will find it increasingly difficult to maintain this delicate balance. (…) As Beijing continues to nibble around the edges in areas where the United States fails to meet its Gulf allies’ requests, both sides will need to compromise. The next U.S. administration will need to present its Gulf allies with more sufficient alternatives to China’s growing economic and technology attractiveness, while the Gulf states will have to understand the cost of maintaining this enduring alliance."

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"The Republican War Over Trump’s Germany Troop Pullout"’s-germany-troop-pullout-162326

Republikanische "Falken" im US-Kongress hätten auf die Pläne des Weißen Hauses für einen Abzug von bis zu 9.500 US-Truppen aus Deutschland mit Protest reagiert, schreibt Jacob Heilbrunn. "Whether or not Trump follows through on his pullout, it seems clear that the stage is set for further battles between Trump and the Republican defense hawks over America’s presence in Afghanistan and elsewhere. The boldest move Trump could make would be to seek a rapprochement with Iran — something that his own aides such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo would seek to thwart. But as he faces a difficult path to reelection, it is political considerations that will weigh most heavily with Trump. A wider pullout of troops, not just from Germany but also Afghanistan, would allow Trump to declare that he truly is following through on his original campaign promise that it is time for America to come home. But the question, as always with Trump, is whether his statements represent actual policy aspirations or just a lot of hot air."

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"RIP, President Moon's North Korea Peace Initiative?"

Daniel R. DePetris betrachtet die aktuelle Verweigerungshaltung Nordkoreas als bedenkliches Signal für die Zukunft der Friedensinitiative des südkoreanischen Präsidenten Moon Jae In. "While Pyongyang’s decision to cut communication with the South may seem sudden, it was actually predictable given the North’s behavior over the previous 12 months. As Chad O’Carroll points out, the Kim regime has been downright nasty to the Moon administration and continues to reject every offer the South conjures up. (…) It’s especially humiliating for Moon, who continues to see the virtues and mutual security benefits of reconciliation but is nevertheless struggling to move his policy forward given the Trump administration’s short-leash. (…) At its core, the stoppage of the phone calls is more worrying for what it represents: the near-death of Moon’s signature foreign policy initiative. Time will tell whether the North Koreans are seeking to pressure Seoul into making additional concessions or whether, as seems likely, they’ve made the strategic calculation that engaging with the South is a waste of time as long as Washington holds a veto over South Korea’s policy."

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"Why the U.S. Military Still Loves Donald Trump"

In den unteren Rängen des US-Militärs genieße Präsident Trump nach wie vor große Unterstützung, da viele Soldaten Trumps Forderungen nach einer Beendigung unpopulärer ausländischer Kriegseinsätze ernst nähmen, schreibt Mark Perry. "(…) there’s a growing sense among senior military officers that Trump’s sustained support among those in uniform has little to do either with either the military’s inherent conservatism or its geographic roots. Instead, Trump’s support from those in uniform has more to do with the growing unease of service members (and particularly those in the enlisted ranks) with America’s endless conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, which Trump has vowed to end. That pledge, military officers say, is why Trump remains popular. (…) That there is deep unease in the U.S. military with America’s continued deployments in the Middle East is not in doubt. But the current runs much deeper among the rank and file than it does with senior officers, a civilian Pentagon official notes. (…) while Donald Trump continues to offend, insult and one-up the U.S. military’s senior commanders, that’s far less important to those who are actually fighting America’s wars⁠ — so long as he keeps his pledge to end them."

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"Libyan Civil War: Is That It for Haftar?"

Trotz der jüngsten militärischen Rückschläge für die Libysche Nationalarmee (LNA) erwartet Marco Túlio Lara keinen freiwilligen Rückzug von General Haftar. Die Niederlagen könnten allerdings dazu führen, dass sich Haftars internationale Verbündete von ihm abwenden und stattdessen den kompromissbereiteren Aguila Saleh, Präsident des Repräsentantenhauses in Tobruk, unterstützen. "Haftar’s backers bet on the Marshal thinking he would be able to quickly deal with the GNA, but a year of failed attempts to take the capital and the GNA’s ultimate counteroffensive rolling back his gains may well cost him some goodwill on the UAE and Egypt’s part. The next move for both countries may be the same as that of Russia, which is to support Aguila Saleh, the head of the Tobruk-based House of Representatives, with whom Haftar had a recent fallout, as Saleh offered a diplomatic way out of the crisis just as Haftar was brushing aside a key agreement paving the way for a negotiated solution. While this may not have been the preferred outcome of Haftar’s backers, given the current situation, negotiations may be the only realistic strategy at this time."

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"How COVID-19 Could Transform UN Peacekeeping"

Charles T. Hunt und Adam Day erläutern, welche Auswirkungen die Coronakrise auf die Friedensmissionen der UNO haben könnte. "Peacekeeping may be entering a period of major change. Over the past four years, there has been a steady decline in the number of peacekeepers deployed worldwide. And two of the largest peacekeeping missions in history are beginning to draw down. These two developments hint at the fact that UN peacekeeping may appear poised to shrink further. There are a number of factors driving this. They include budgetary pressures and a contested track record. Added to this have been the more recent financial and practical challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, COVID-19 has also created conditions that suggest the demand for peace operations may be even greater in the medium-term. This is because the economic, security and social effects of COVID-19 are likely to cause greater instability in conflict-prone countries. This could lead to new internal conflicts at a time when UN member states are consumed with their own internal affairs. This greater need for peacekeeping efforts offers an opportunity for the UN to explore a real spectrum of peace operations beyond the large multidimensional model. Future missions could be more orientated towards deeper socio-economic drivers of today’s conflicts."

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"The True Danger of Withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty"

Nach dem Austritt der USA aus dem "Open Skies"-Vertrag zur gegenseitigen Luftüberwachung fürchtet Daniel R. DePetris, dass auch das "New START"-Abkommen nicht mehr zu retten sei. "The White House is reportedly debating a New START extension for a shorter time period than the five-year maximum allowed under the treaty. While far better than simply watching the accord die in ten months, a short-term extension is unlikely to provide the administration with the time to negotiate a more far-reaching and ambitious arms control agreement with Moscow. It certainly would not be enough time to entice China to join a comprehensive trilateral strategic weapons agreement. Washington’s formal withdrawal means the Open Skies Treaty is likely dead in the water. The Trump administration should not make the additional mistake of passively watching as a far more important agreement, New START, nears its expiration date."

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"Pompeo Cuts Off Special U.S. Trade Relationship With Hong Kong"

US-Außenminister Pompeo hat nach der Verabschiedung des neuen Sicherheitsgesetzes für Hongkong durch den Volkskongress in Peking angekündigt, dass Hongkong künftig handelspolitisch wie Festlandchina behandelt werden könnte. Die Sonderverwaltungszone würde damit Handelsprivilegien verlieren. "'Beijing’s disastrous decision is only the latest in a series of actions that fundamentally undermine Hong Kong’s autonomy and freedoms and China’s own promises to the Hong Kong people,' Pompeo said in a Wednesday statement, citing older British-Chinese agreements. 'No reasonable person can assert today that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China, given facts on the ground.' Pompeo’s declaration could trigger the Hong Kong Policy Act, which would subject Hong Kong to the same tariffs and export controls as the rest of China. U.S.-China trade relations are currently taking a turn for the worse as competition between the two powers heats up. David R. Stilwell, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, told reporters at a Wednesday conference call that the decision is now up to President Donald Trump."

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"Don't Listen to the 'China Covered Up the Coronavirus' Narrative"

Mitchell Blatt widerspricht der These, dass China den Ausbruch der Corona-Epidemie zunächst verschleiert habe. Politiker nutzten dieses Narrativ vor allem, um von eigenen Versäumnissen abzulenken. "China made some mistakes, as did every country, in responding to the coronavirus, but China’s overall response was more effective than most countries, with domestic quarantines of inter-city travelers, widespread mask-wearing, and a testing and tracing regime with access to a vast trove of data. And the claims of a 'cover-up' are inaccurate. They are nothing but a cover for politicians and countries with antagonistic relationships towards China to defend themselves in front of their domestic publics and to pressure China internationally. (…) To hold that China could have or should have been able to know from day one that these cases of pneumonia were actually coming from a new virus, or that it should have known the virus spread through the breath of apparently healthy people, and that it should have been able to track every case of the virus, is, somewhat ironically, to hold China to higher standards than the most developed democratic countries in the world. When China mishandles a pandemic, it is ascribed to malfeasance; when the United States and Europe do, it is the ordinary, expected incompetence."

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"Will the Arctic Become the Next South China Sea?"

Die Arktis könnte bald zu einem neuen Brennpunkt der geopolitischen Rivalität zwischen den USA und China werden, schreibt Anya Gorodentsev vom Center for the National Interest. China lasse keinen Zweifel an seinem Interesse an der Region und investiere in wissenschaftliche Expeditionen und Infrastrukturprojekte. "China’s Arctic policy explicitly states that it upholds the sovereignty of Arctic states with territorial claims and does not wish to challenge them. Though at the same time, the policy document emphasizes the freedom of navigation in the Arctic seas for continued trade growth and advocates the Arctic Ocean for global usage. Its near-Arctic state identity has drawn criticism from the international community as it has no history of scientific exploration in the region nor a geographic border. And as the U.S.-China relationship becomes increasingly strained, China’s growing interests in the region may be met with hostility by the United States and other Arctic NATO-littoral actors."

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"Ukraine and the Clash of Civilizations"

Nach Ansicht von William S. Smith vom Center for the Study of Statesmanship an der Catholic University of America sollte der Westen den "Stellvertreterkrieg" in der Ukraine beenden, um nicht einen größeren Konflikt mit Russland zu riskieren. Er betrachtet den Konflikt im Kontext des von Samuel P. Huntington analysierten "Kampfes der Kulturen" und empfiehlt, Russlands Interessen in der Ukraine bei einer diplomatischen Lösung zu berücksichtigen. "Huntington predicted the crisis in Ukraine. His theory that nations would return to their historical and cultural roots had a natural corollary: nations that were divided between civilizations, so-called 'cleft' countries, were the places that would most likely generate great-power conflict. Consider that, in the former Yugoslavia, the United States, Germany, Russia and prominent Islamic nations all lined up to support different proxies in the conflict according to shared civilizational commonalities. By Huntington’s civilizational standard, Ukraine is a severely cleft country, divided internally along historical, geographic and religious lines, with western Ukraine firmly in the European corner and eastern Ukraine and Crimea firmly in the orbit of Orthodox Russia. (…) Huntington, in fact, warned emphatically against provoking the Islamic world and argued for caution and diplomacy in cleft countries such as Ukraine. He was adamantly opposed to crusading democracy promotion as a core component of U.S. foreign policy."

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"Coronavirus As the Spark for a U.S.-North Korea Nuclear Deal?"

Könnte die Coronakrise den Atomverhandlungen zwischen den USA und Nordkorea einen neuen Impuls verleihen? Devin Stewart schreibt, dass die Krise der US-Regierung einen Vorwand zur Lockerung der Sanktionen gegen Nordkorea liefern könnte. "The Hanoi failure did serve to remind observers how important sanctions relief is for North Korea, however. And it showed that the United States may have been willing to offer a peace declaration and diplomatic liaison offices if the deal were right. Indeed, while North Korea has been sending friendly signals to Russia and China, the CIA director nominee said he believes Pyongyang would give up 'some' of its nuclear arsenal for sanctions relief. That leaves a tiny shred of hope. Crises can have counterintuitive effects. Here’s an idea: Perhaps the COVID crisis could do some good by creating political cover (or an excuse) for the United States to offer sanctions relief to North Korea out of humanitarian concern. That could facilitate the revival of a deal that has yet to come to fruition."

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"The Trump Administration’s Looming UN Fight With Russia and China Over Iran"’s-looming-un-fight-russia-and-

Nach dem Auslaufen der derzeit geltenden UN-Sanktionen gegen den Iran könnten China und Russland erneut Waffen an Teheran verkaufen. Matthew Petti berichtet über die Bemühungen der US-Regierung, dies zu verhindern. "The Trump administration plans to activate a legal mechanism to extend United Nations sanctions on Iran in October. Other world powers have rejected the Trump administration’s legal argument, setting the stage for a bitter fight in the UN Security Council. But the Trump administration does not have a clearly-articulated plan for what to do next. Hook, who oversees Iranian affairs at the State Department, rejected the question as a 'hypothetical' when asked what to do if Russia and China simply ignores U.S. declarations. The Security Council passed Resolution 2231, which lifts the arms embargo on Iran in October 2020 unless a 'participating member' objects, as part of a 2015 deal to regulate the Iranian nuclear program. The Trump administration left the deal in 2018, but claims that it still has the legal right to snap back the embargo under Resolution 2231."

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"Drone Killings Don’t Work, According to This Book"’t-work-according-book-148836

David Axe stellt das Buch "Kill Chain: The Rise of the High-Tech Assassins" des Journalisten Andrew Cockburn vor, der sich mit den gezielten Luftangriffen und Attentaten auf mutmaßliche Extremisten beschäftigt hat, die vom US-Militär und der CIA nach dem 11. September 2001 durchgeführt worden sind. "(…) as Cockburn spells out, assassinating enemy leaders usually backfires even when the targets are legitimately bad dudes. If it had been paying attention, the U.S. government would have noticed that targeting drug kingpins in the 1990s actually increased narcotics supply by making room for younger, crueler drug lords — and more of them. The same principle applies to terrorists and insurgents. Still, drones have made assassination easier — and easier for the government to defend. Question a government official about some robotic strike, as Cockburn did several times, and the official might show you a blurry drone video that 'proves' the killing was legal and necessary. (…) Time was, America didn’t kill people with the push of a button merely because some flimsy theory proposes that a few murders — followed by a few more, and a few more after that, ad infinitum -- can somehow negate ideology, rewrite human nature and eliminate uncertainty from the world. Cockburn mourns that time’s passing — and expertly describes the era we’ve made, the one we’re stuck with until we change our ways. The era of high-tech, self-defeating assassins."

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"France: The Forgotten Nuclear Power That Could Kill Billions of People"

Caleb Larson mit einem Überblick über das nukleare Waffenarsenal der "vergessenen Atommacht" Frankreich. "French nuclear deterrence is marked by a distinctly independent streak. France left the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in 1966, and returned only fairly recently, in 2009. One of the issues was French reluctance to place their strategic nuclear arsenal under the umbrella of NATO. France is one of the world’s preeminent missile powers — in addition to a wide array of conventional and nuclear missiles, France is also a permanent member of the United Nation’s security council. There is indeed an aura of exclusivity in being one of the world’s few nuclear powers — an aura made even more exclusive by leaving the world’s largest military alliance. Thankfully, France is no longer going it alone."

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"The U.S.-China Relationship Is Too Big ($733 Billion) to Fail"

Auch Daniel R. DePetris glaubt, dass die Beziehungen der USA zu China aufgrund des schieren Umfangs der wirtschaftlichen Abhängigkeiten nicht leichtfertig aufs Spiel gesetzt werden sollten. Gewünschte Veränderungen müssten graduell und mit kühlem Kopf vorgenommen werden. "Decoupling two countries that are heavily interdependent economically and whose trade relationship is valued at over $737 billion would cause extreme economic pain to both economies, eliminate a barrier to full-blown confrontation, and reduce the authority of pragmatists in both capitals who counsel restraint and a degree of accommodation. But any reform in the U.S.-China relationship will need to take place gradually, with clear-eyes, a level-head, and sensationalism left at the door. In the interim, both countries will have to work together when they can and manage their differences responsibly where they must."

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"The Great U.S.-China Divorce Has Arrived"

James Jay Carafano von der konservativen Heritage Foundation erwartet, dass sich die Rivalität zwischen den USA und China infolge der Corona-Pandemie deutlich verschärfen wird. Der Begriff der "Freien Welt" wird unter den neuen geopolitischen Umständen seiner Ansicht nach neue Bedeutung erhalten. "Make no mistake: The global struggle with China is about to go to the next level. Or two. Or three. By triggering a global disease outbreak, the Chinese Communist Party’s reprehensible behavior crossed the last line, leaving other nations no recourse but to push back. Hard. No longer can responsible nations tolerate the regime’s destabilizing interference around the world. Post-COVID-19, there will be a new world map, and this is what it is going to look like. (…) The vast majority of the world is, and will remain for the foreseeable future, divided into three camps: (1) the free world, resilient against Chinese meddling; (2) the balancers, nations that recognize the key to their prosperity and security is engaging with both the United States and China, protecting their independence and minimizing the likelihood that they will become theaters of competition between great powers, and (3) contested space, where the U.S., China, and others compete for influence across the spectrum of economic, political, security, and information spheres."

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"Coronavirus Is Empowering Dictators And Changing The World Order"

Die Corona-Pandemie habe innerhalb weniger Wochen weltweit politische "Normalitäten" auf den Kopf gestellt, meint Seth J. Frantzman. Profitiert hätten davon vor allem autoritäre Regierungen. "What happens in the long-term due to the effects of the virus? In Europe the EU has been criticized for its response and critics say its former status quo of open borders and policies is shaken to the core. This will tarnish EU institutions. The pandemic has forced most wealthy countries to rapidly close off their economies amid lockdowns. Poorer states are having a harder time and they may risk slipping into instability if they try draconian lockdowns. On the other hand, some existing authoritarian policies, such as India’s crackdown on protests in places like Kashmir, will go unnoticed amid the wider lockdown. Some countries in Africa appear to be using harsh measures already, using the pandemic as an excuse. It’s unclear how a lockdown can be enforced from Kenya to South Africa. The pandemic both erodes trust in regional and global institutions and pits countries against their own citizens as police and the military are sent to enforce lockdowns. The end result will likely be a more divided and chaotic world order, with Western states being more isolationist in the short term."

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"Western Values May Not Survive the Coronavirus"

Die Corona-Pandemie habe kaum erwartete Schwächen der westlichen Welt offengelegt, meint Ali Demirdas. Dies könne den Niedergang der liberalen Demokratien im Westen beschleunigen. "For the first time since WWII, the Europeans feel invaded, and for the first time in nearly two centuries, the United States is struggling to defeat an invading army on its soil. All these things considered, the contagion will likely have monumental social, economic, and political impact on Europe and America. For most Europeans, the bitter fact dawned on them that the motto 'United in Diversity,' which signifies the common desire to 'work together for peace and prosperity,' is good as long as the bubble of safety, affluence, and wealth is intact. The pandemic revealed the cherished ideal of European unity can easily be replaced by 'everyone for themselves.' (…) The pandemic scare will change the way the people of the West see the world. The faith in democracy, liberalism, and institutionalism is likely going to decline in favor of a state-centric, and strongman infused system, just as was the case in the interwar era (1918–1939)."

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"Has Germany Defeated the Coronavirus?"

Hunter DeRensis betrachtet die Entwicklung der Coronakrise in Deutschland als Außenstehender und im Vergleich zu anderen Staaten durchaus optimistisch. "As the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus and the subsequent deaths continual to rise in places like Italy and New York state, other places in the western world are beginning to get ahead of the pandemic. Germany, through a strong public healthcare system and stringent quarantine measures, is beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel. Despite earlier, apoplectic predictions, Germany has been able to keep a low death toll during the crisis. With over 26,000 positive cases, they have only had 111 deaths. This percentage far surpasses the countries of southern Europe, like Italy and Spain."

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"Why Autocrats Love Coronavirus"


Für Autokraten kommt die Corona-Krise nach Ansicht von Melinda Haring und Doug Klain vom Atlantic Council wie gerufen. "Around the world, authoritarian governments are exploiting the global COVID-19 pandemic to crackdown on dissent and suppress their political enemies. From the Nile to the Dnieper, strongmen are shuttering opposition offices, silencing journalists, and banning public demonstrations at crucial moments — often under the guise of public health. (…) Authoritarian leaders are constantly searching for scapegoats, working to rile up the fears of their populace, and trying to tighten their grips. To them, the coronavirus pandemic is a bonanza — the liberal democracies that would typically call them out for their violence, repression, and racism are distracted, with the necessities of stopping the virus in their home countries. If these strongmen go unchecked, the COVID crisis may end with all of us emerging to find a world in which authoritarianism triumphs. More political prisoners, more presidents-for-life, and more despotism. Now, the West needs to figure out how to stop a pandemic and fight authoritarianism at the same time. It can be done."

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"Why Is Terrorism Rising in West Africa?"

Der Informationsdienst Stratfor macht die beiden Gruppen Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) und Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) für die aktuelle Terrorwelle in Westafrika verantwortlich. "JNIM and ISGS initially operated out of central Mali and northern Burkina Faso. Over the past year, increasingly violent and frequent militant attacks have begun affecting the Mali-Niger border area and southern parts of Burkina Faso. Over the past year, more than 2,600 people have been killed and more than a half-million have been displaced in Burkina Faso alone. The surge of jihadist violence is also increasingly encroaching on countries in coastal West Africa. (…) Western forces are unlikely to significantly shift their counterterrorism strategies in the Sahel. A continued slow but steady expansion of coordinated jihadist operations will prompt France will devote more resources to the conflict, but not enough to alter the security environment. The United States, meanwhile, will continue to seek to extract itself from the region as it attempts to refocus its military posture toward great power competition. Should Western powers maintain their current level of support, local governments in West Africa may feel the need to ask for additional help, which could prompt Russia to become a bigger player in the Sahel."

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"Will Coronavirus Collapse Lebanon — And Will It Be Iran’s Fault?"—and-will-it-be-ir

Die Corona-Pandemie treffe den Libanon in einer ohnehin ernsten politischen und wirtschaftlichen Lage, berichtet Matthew Petti. "The small Mediterranean republic is facing a cascading series of crises, culminating in the government defaulting on its sovereign debt earlier this week. The Lebanese health-care sector has taken a serious hit from the country’s ongoing financial crisis as the U.S.-Iranian conflict has caused pro-Iran factions to dig in their heels on repairing the country’s economy. (…) The crisis could also be an opportunity for the central government to win back legitimacy — and it may cast Hezbollah, the pro-Iran political party that currently runs Lebanon’s health ministry, in a negative light. 'The public health system is not very well-resourced,' said Jean AbiNader, communications chair for the American Task Force for Lebanon, but the country has 'a very strong professional class' that could be mobilized to deal with the pandemic."

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Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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