US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace


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"What Europe’s Dispute about Iran’s Nuclear Program Means"

Jarrett Blanc glaubt nicht, dass die E3-Staaten Deutschland, Frankreich und Großbritannien mit der Eröffnung des formellen Schlichtungsverfahrens ihren Ausstieg aus dem Atomabkommen mit dem Iran vorbereiten wollen. Den Europäern gehe es vielmehr darum, Zeit zu gewinnen. "The E3 have not been explicit about why they did not trigger the DRM before but decided to do so now, but their reasoning explains the meaning and limits of the current move. Throughout 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron made vigorous efforts to restart U.S.-Iran negotiations that would bolster or replace the JCPOA and allow a de-escalation of conflict in the region. The E3 believed that the DRM would undermine this diplomatic campaign. After Trump repeatedly rejected Iran’s minimum price of modest sanctions relief to return to the table, and certainly after Soleimani’s death, that effort is simply no longer viable. That means that quite contrary to the hopes of JCPOA opponents, the decision to trigger the DRM is not Europe abandoning the JCPOA, but Europe shelving (for now) efforts to negotiate its replacement. Instead, the Europeans are reinvesting in preserving some shell of the Iran deal as a potential platform for diplomacy at a future point, when Washington and Tehran are more willing. The best-case scenario is probably a continuation of the current crisis, getting a little worse over time but not by too much, until the United States is willing to seriously reevaluate its policies and priorities and reopen diplomatic efforts."

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"Why No Arab Spring in Palestine?"

Vor dem Hintergrund der andauernden Proteste in Libanon und Irak fragt Aaron David Miller, warum es in den palästinensischen Gebieten bisher keinen Arabischen Frühling 2.0 gebe. Ein wichtiger Grund sei die israelische Besatzung. "The same grievances — corruption, lack of trust in governing elites, and the breakdown of basic services — that have been driving thousands into the streets of Lebanon and Iraq also apply in the West Bank and Gaza. Yet Palestinians have been unable or unwilling to harness people against their own leaders in a sustained way. What does the absence of such protests say about the Palestinians and their politics? (…) Palestinians face a unique challenge. Not only do they want to build self-governing institutions and win statehood, they must manage this within the severe constraints of Israeli occupation. There are few, if any, precedents in modern history for a people negotiating its way out of this kind of situation and building state institutions, let alone successfully establishing a state. So although resentments about the lack of representation, corruption, economic mismanagement, and human rights simmer, the focus of Palestinian energy has been on Israel."

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"The Global Expansion of AI Surveillance"

Eine neue Studie der Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hat untersucht, auf welche Weise Staaten neue KI-gestützte Überwachungsmöglichkeiten nutzen. Steven Feldstein schreibt in der Zusammenfassung der Ergebnisse, dass China bei der Entwicklung und Verbreitung der neuen Technologien eine zentrale Rolle spiele. "AI surveillance technology is spreading at a faster rate to a wider range of countries than experts have commonly understood. At least seventy-five out of 176 countries globally are actively using AI technologies for surveillance purposes. This includes: smart city/safe city platforms (fifty-six countries), facial recognition systems (sixty-four countries), and smart policing (fifty-two countries). (...) China is a major driver of AI surveillance worldwide. (...) Liberal democracies are major users of AI surveillance. The index shows that 51 percent of advanced democracies deploy AI surveillance systems. In contrast, 37 percent of closed autocratic states, 41 percent of electoral autocratic/competitive autocratic states, and 41 percent of electoral democracies/illiberal democracies deploy AI surveillance technology. (...) Governments in autocratic and semi-autocratic countries are more prone to abuse AI surveillance than governments in liberal democracies. Some autocratic governments — for example, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia — are exploiting AI technology for mass surveillance purposes."

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"How Transatlantic Foreign Policy Cooperation Could Evolve After Brexit"

Nach einem Brexit werden die USA, Großbritannien und die EU die transatlantischen Beziehungen neu ordnen müssen, schreibt David Whineray in seiner Analyse. "The United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union will mark one of the most significant shifts in European and transatlantic geopolitics since the fall of the Berlin Wall. It will also take place at a time when the United States’ traditional transatlantic outlook has changed under Donald Trump’s administration. (...) Will Washington, London, Brussels, Paris, and Berlin want to act as a joint transatlantic unit in addressing major foreign policy challenges? Alternatively, will they want to maintain some strategic divergence from each other, given differing ideological outlooks? Either way, the immediate issue for the EU and the United Kingdom this fall will be whether their existing close foreign policy cooperation (such as on Iran) is impacted by — or inoculated from — any wider tensions between them as the Brexit endgame approaches."

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"Stabilizing Northeast Nigeria After Boko Haram"

Saskia Brechenmacher hat sich in dieser Analyse für die Carnegie Endowment for International Peace eingehend mit den Bemühungen beschäftigt, im Nordosten des Landes Hilfsprogramme auf lokaler Ebene umzusetzen. Echte Fortschritte werden demnach vor allem durch die schlechte Sicherheitssituation und die mangelnde Kooperation der Regierung verhindert. "Nigeria’s overstretched and corruption-plagued military has struggled to consolidate its gains. Over the past year, security has again worsened in parts of Borno State, thereby preventing the scale-up of many programs. While the Nigerian government has been eager to demonstrate progress in reconstruction, donors point to the longer-term threat of ISWAP [Islamic State West Africa Province] gaining a greater foothold in the rural areas around Lake Chad. Local-level programs rely heavily on the theory that they will create 'islands of stability' that will eventually forge connections with each other. Yet it is unclear if this assumption holds true in a context of continued insecurity. The Nigerian case highlights the challenges of implementing effective local-level stabilization efforts while working with and through a host government that lacks political commitment, capacity, and coordination."

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"It Started With Porn"

Moisés Naím erläutert, warum die Technik zur täuschend echten Manipulation digitaler Bilder ("deepfake") auch in der Sicherheitspolitik bald zu einer Gefahr werden könnte. "Image manipulation is nothing new. Authoritarian governments have a long history of 'disappearing' disgraced leaders from official photographs. And since 1990 Photoshop has allowed users to alter digital photographs, a practice that has become so common it is considered a verb by Merriam-Webster. But deepfake is different. And much more dangerous. In just the year since the fake celebrity porn videos appeared, the technology has improved dramatically. Everything about these videos is hyper realistic, and the person’s voice and gestures are so exactly rendered that it becomes impossible to know it is a forgery without using sophisticated verification programs. And perhaps the biggest danger of deepfake is that the technology is available to anyone. (...) The possible uses of deepfake in politics, economics, or international relations are as varied as they are sinister. The release of a video showing a presidential candidate saying or doing reprehensible things shortly before the elections will certainly become a more commonly used election trick. (...) The counterfeit videos’ potential to cloud relations between countries and exacerbate international conflicts is also enormous."

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"Why Trump’s Pragmatic Diplomacy on North Korea Could Pay Dividends"

George Perkovich meint, dass US-Präsident Trump gegenüber Nordkorea in der Praxis eine überraschend pragmatische Strategie verfolge. Angesichts der komplizierten Ausgangslage sei dies der richtige Ansatz. Der Erfolg werde letztlich von der Bereitschaft der US-Regierung abhängen, von Nordkorea nicht zu schnell zu viel zu verlangen. "Naturally, the United States and its allies would prefer a more immediate verifiable elimination of the North Korean nuclear threat. So, too, North Korean leaders want a quicker normalization of relations and the permanent removal of sanctions. While imperfect for everyone, extending the phased process that has now begun to remove threats and provide reassurances could significantly improve international security. There is no other way to a more perfect outcome."

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"The New Killer Pathogens: Countering the Coming Bioweapons Threat"

Die Fortschritte in der Gentechnologie haben die Sorge vor einem Missbrauch der neuen Möglichkeiten in Form von biologischen Waffen neu aufleben lassen, schreibt Katherine Charlet. Experten warnten, dass in Bedrängnis geratene Staaten entsprechende Waffenprogramme entwickeln und damit die internationale Ordnung destabilisieren könnten. "Understanding the risks that biological weapons pose today requires a closer look at how states have historically weighed their benefits and drawbacks. Since 1945, only six countries have publicly admitted developing biological weapons, although sufficient evidence exists to suspect a dozen or more. As the biological warfare expert W. Seth Carus has pointed out, states have pursued these weapons for a number of different reasons. (...) In seeking to prevent the use of biological weapons, governments, businesses, and scientists must arm themselves with equal parts fear and confidence, urgency and pragmatism. Given recent technological advancements, the consequences of a return to an era of states with biological weapons programs would be devastating. But a sound strategy to keep the disincentives strong can keep that possibility in the realm of fiction."

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"The Return of Global Russia: An Analytical Framework"

Paul Stronski und Richard Sokolsky haben in ihrer umfassenden Analyse die politischen Hintergründe und Zielsetzungen der Rückkehr Russlands als global agierende Großmacht untersucht. "Though its foreign actions are often opportunistic, Russia increasingly aims to create a multipolar world in which it plays a more prominent role. Moscow’s national security establishment broadly supports this international outreach, which will likely remain an enduring feature of Russian foreign policy. Washington and its allies must carefully judge Russian actions case by case and respond in concert when possible."

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"When States Pretend to Be Terrorists or Hacktivists in Cyberspace"

Tim Maurer von der Cyber Policy Initiative der Carnegie Endowment for International Peace erläutert in diesem Interview, auf welche Weise Staaten im Internet "unter falscher Flagge" agieren, um ihre Verantwortung für Spionageoperationen und Cyberkriegsführung zu verschleiern. "A false flag operation in the context of offensive cyber operations can consist of several methods. For example, a state actor could simply create a false online identity, say of a hacktivist group that pretends to be associated with the Islamic State, and then use the profile to issue a statement claiming credit for the attack, to create the appearance that the terrorist group rather than the state actor was behind the operation. Another method is to make it look as if the malicious activity originates from whomever the attacker is trying to frame, or to use malware that’s been tied to another malicious actor as part of the offensive cyber operation. (...) We don’t have a comprehensive picture to date to really assess how common false flag operations are, compared to non-false flag operations. In fact, in many cases we still lack certainty if a nation-state, proxy, or nonstate actor was responsible for the operation."

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"The Real Problem With a Nuclear Ban Treaty"

Matthew Harries ist der Ansicht, dass ein Erfolg bei den UN-Verhandlungen über ein Verbot von Atomwaffen vor allem Russland und China in die Hände spielen würde. Die praktischen Maßnahmen zur Durchsetzung einer theoretisch sicher zu begrüßenden atomwaffenfreien Welt würden vor allem die USA treffen, so Harries. "The main way for a ban treaty to achieve anything of substance is to throw grit into the bearings of U.S. extended deterrence. It could do so by various means. It might contribute to pressure to withdraw U.S. nuclear weapons from their NATO host countries in Europe, or at least pressure on those countries not to procure replacements for their nuclear-capable aircraft. More broadly, it might make it harder for NATO to present a united front against Russian nuclear saber rattling—a direct threat to existing global norms of nuclear restraint — by pitching the alliance back into fractious debates about the role of nuclear weapons, on which a delicate consensus has been reached in recent years."

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"Is a Pakistan-India War Just One Terrorist Attack Away?"

Toby Dalton und George Perkovich warnen, dass die gegenwärtig wieder sehr angespannten Beziehungen zwischen Indien und Pakistan im Falle eines von Pakistan ausgehenden Angriffs oder Terroranschlags schnell in einen offenen Krieg eskalieren könnten. "If a new attack occurs and inflicts major casualties in India, especially among civilians in the heartland, the kudos the Modi government won at home for the response to Uri will compel it to act more forcefully. Pakistani military and civilian leaders, fearful of each other and of militant political forces, cannot let a substantial Indian military operation against targets on Pakistani soil go unanswered. (...) Indian and Pakistani leaders may continue to be lucky but, as all gamblers know, luck can depart without warning. Continuing to rely on luck to prevent escalation, rather than seeking to stabilise the existing equilibrium and to pursue actual means and structures to guide relations, is a strategic risk for both states."

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"Charting the Post–Cold War U.S.-Japan Alliance"

Die Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hat die Entwicklung der vielfältigen diplomatischen Beziehungen zwischen den USA und Japan seit dem Ende des Kalten Krieges in einem interaktiven Diagramm aufgearbeitet. "Since the Cold War’s end, the United States and Japan have tried to give new purpose to their alliance by expanding cooperation while managing economic tensions — with mixed results. Use this resource to explore the modern evolution of the U.S.-Japan alliance across several policy categories. Click through the initiatives to see the actors involved and learn about their activities and achievements."

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"The Sudden German Nuke Flirtation"

Angesichts eines möglichen sicherheitspolitischen Rückzugs der USA aus Europa unter Präsident Trump haben einige Kommentatoren offen über die Anschaffung deutscher Atomwaffen nachgedacht. Ulrich Kühn schreibt, dass sich hier die Konturen einer ernsthaften Debatte abzeichneten, er hält ein deutsches Atomwaffenprogramm allerdings aus mehreren Gründen für unwahrscheinlich. "One can see two paths of proposed action if the United States were to withdraw or openly question its security guarantees: a European nuclear option and a German nuclear option. (...) Notwithstanding the recent public airing of nuclear flirtations, powerful and convincing arguments speak against a German or non-NATO European nuclear option. All things nuclear are highly unpopular among ordinary Germans. (...) Although the country is one of the most technically advanced nations in the world and it theoretically possesses enough fissile material for a nuclear device, the enormous financial and political costs that would come with such a decision would most likely outweigh any perceived benefit. There are also many political-legal obstacles. Germany would have to withdraw from or seek to change the 1990 Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany (also known as the Two Plus Four Treaty)".

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"Understanding Chinese Nuclear Thinking"

China und die USA hätten unterschiedliche Auffassungen über Atomwaffen und nukleare Abschreckung, erläutern Li Bin und Tong Zhao in diesem Papier für die Denkfabrik Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Chinese analysts, for instance, consider nuclear deterrence and compellence to be indistinguishable in most cases, and thus often criticize the offensive implications of some U.S. nuclear deterrence policies. - China’s security paradigm emphasizes national security challenges deriving from vulnerability, particularly technical lagging, whereby another country masters a military technology that it has not. In many cases, China pursues military and nuclear development efforts simply to master new defense technologies, but not necessarily deploy them, so as to avoid technical lagging. - China believes the ultimate goal of nuclear disarmament is completely eliminating all nuclear weapons and that the best way of achieving this is to first constrain their use. This informs how China prefers to approach nuclear disarmament."

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"Deterrence vs. Coercion"

Die beiden rivalisierenden Atommächte Indien und Pakistan müssten schnellstmöglich dazu gebracht werden, internationale Rüstungskontrollvereinbarungen anzuerkennen, schreibt Ashley J. Tellis. In diesem Papier für die Carnegie Endowment for International Peace erläutert er die unterschiedlichen Prinzipien der atomaren Abschreckung in beiden Ländern. "Unfortunately, (...) nuclear weapons in Pakistani hands have had larger and more corrosively destabilizing effects: they have enabled Pakistan to pursue its revanchist aims of recovering the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir by force, or more specifically, by unleashing state-supported terrorism against India in the hope of weakening Indian control over the contested territories. This stratagem is based on the assumption that India will be unable to retaliate against Pakistan conventionally for fear of sparking a nuclear holocaust. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, then, are intended not merely to provide deterrence against Indian attacks, but more ambitiously, a license for Pakistan’s sub-conventional wars against India."

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"Turkey Has Given Up on Democracy Outside Its Borders, Too"

Die autoritäre Wende der Türkei unter Präsident Erdogan betreffe nicht nur die Innen-, sondern auch die Außenpolitik des Landes, schreibt Senem Aydin-Düzgit. Vor wenigen Jahren sei die Türkei von Reformern im Nahen Osten noch als leuchtendes Beispiel einer islamisch geprägten Demokratie betrachtet worden. "In those years, Turkey focused on democracy promotion at two levels — positioning itself as a model of democracy in its neighborhood while also funding democracy assistance projects and supporting pro-democratic movements in other countries. Both of these approaches have lost traction. Today, Turkey hardly stands as a positive example for democratic reformers in the Middle East. (...) The negative trends run in both directions. Regional geopolitics is fuelling authoritarianism within Turkey, and the latter in turn weakens Turkey’s democratic legitimacy among reformers across the Middle East. The relationship between the foreign and the domestic is becoming ever more problematic in Turkey, creating a vicious circle that, thus far, shows no signs of ending."

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"Political Thought in the Arab World"

Marc Lynch und Michaelle Browers haben sich in diesem Podcast über den aktuellen Stand der politischen Debattenkultur in arabischen Ländern unterhalten. "Speaking with Carnegie’s Marc Lynch, Michaelle Browers discusses the role of intellectuals in the Middle East and the growth of a new generation of scholars and political theorists in the wake of the Arab Spring."

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"Are We Seeing Palestine’s Spring at Long Last?"

Nathan J. Brown und Daniel Nerenberg hoffen, dass die Zivilgesellschaft in den palästinensischen Gebieten bald als neuer "moralischer Vorreiter" auftreten wird. Die offiziellen Führungspersönlichkeiten und Institutionen hätten in der Bevölkerung erheblich an Legitimität eingebüßt. Der politische Diskurs unter Palästinensern werde zunehmend durch Organisationen wie die "International Solidarity Movement" (ISM) oder die "Boycott Divestment and Sanctions"-Bewegung bestimmt. "Where are the decline of the old institutions and the rise of a diffuse new moral vanguard leading Palestinians? That is not clear for two reasons — and the despair with the current situation and the desire for something to change means that not everybody is unhappy that the direction is unclear. First, there has been a shift in Palestinian attention from national strategy and ends to shorter-term tactics. (...) A new generation of Palestinians that is not cowed by memories of the tribulations of the last uprising is stepping forward. It is already having deep political effects but seems uninterested or unable — at least for now — in leading Palestinians toward any particular strategic goal. Second, the new forms of politics seem to avoid institutions, at least the ones that exist. Rights-based activists are justifiably concerned that official leadership institutions might coopt and defang their initiatives".

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"U.S. Policy Toward Central Asia 3.0"

Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky und Paul Stronski empfehlen der US-Regierung in einer neuen Studie eine Neuausrichtung ihrer politischen Strategie gegenüber den Ländern Zentralasiens. "Major geopolitical shifts and internal dynamics are setting the stage for possible increased great-power competition in Central Asia between Russia and China at a time when the region is becoming less hospitable to the projection of U.S. power and to the promotion of democracy. U.S. policy will need to adapt to these changes in order to bring Washington’s ambitions in Central Asia into better alignment with limited U.S. interests and means. Overpromising and setting ambitious but unrealistic goals will lead to mutual frustration, cynicism, and disappointment among the five states of Central Asia. A policy grounded in a realistic view of the region and U.S. interests there will better serve everyone’s interests."

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"An Unhappy Marriage: Civil-Military Relations in Post-Saddam Iraq"

Florence Gaub untersucht in diesem Bericht für das Carnegie Middle East Center, welchen Einfluss die Beziehungen zwischen der zivilen und der militärischen Führung im Irak auf die demokratische Transition des Landes haben. Die fast kampflose Flucht irakischer Truppen vor der Einnahme der Stadt Mosul durch den "Islamischen Staat" habe zu Reformen geführt, die seitdem von Premierminister Haider al-Abadi weitergeführt worden seien. "Upon assuming the post of prime minister in September 2014, Haider al-Abadi initiated further reforms. These included decentralizing governmental structures, combating corruption, abolishing the multiple posts of vice president, and declaring an end to political sectarianism. If implemented, these reforms will go a long way to improving civil-military relations in Iraq. An empowered parliament and Defense Ministry could ensure that the armed forces are brought under civilian control. Ending the sectarian and partisan quotas would also enhance professionalism in the military. Most importantly, reforms might not only rehabilitate the image of the new, new Iraqi army but also repair how Iraqis relate to their state as a whole."

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"The United Kingdom and Nuclear Weapons: The Necessity for a Strategic View"

In Großbritannien ist eine neue Diskussion über das britische Atomwaffenprogramm entbrannt. Der neue Vorsitzende der Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, hält die Raketen für überteuert und überflüssig, die Regierung plant dagegen die Modernisierung der Waffensysteme. Auch John Gower, Konteradmiral im Ruhestand und früherer Mitarbeiter im Verteidigungsministerium, hält britische Atomaffen aus strategischen Gründen weiterhin für notwendig. "Both France and the United States place far greater importance on nuclear deterrence in their defense policies than does the United Kingdom. All three nuclear-weapon states within NATO have, however, agreed that, while nuclear weapons exist — particularly in the hands of a notable few unstable and unpredictable states — the retention of credible and effective nuclear deterrents is an essential element of both national and collective security. It is this deterrence that has contributed to the last offensive use of nuclear weapons being the bombing of Nagasaki on August 9, 1945."

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"Asian Democracies and Thailand’s Military Takeover"

Autoren der Carnegie Endowment for International Peace erläutern, warum asiatische Demokratien auf den Militärputsch in Thailand im vergangenen Jahr eher zurückhaltend reagiert hätten. "The events in Thailand have presented Asian democracies with an important test case for their commitment to upholding democratic norms in the region. In this article, the Japanese, South Korean, and Indian members of Carnegie’s Rising Democracies Network assess how their respective countries have responded. They explain why Asian responses to the coup have been so cautious and ambivalent. Our guest contributor, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, offers a Thai perspective on why it has been U.S. and not Asian positions that have kept pressure on the Thai junta to move the country back to democracy."

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"Hard Aid: Foreign Aid in the Pursuit of Short-term Security and Political Goals"

Nathaniel Myers kritisiert die amerikanische Strategie, kurzfristige außenpolitische Ziele mit dem Mittel der Entwicklungshilfe erreichen zu wollen. "Facing serious crises in the Middle East and beyond, Washington is again turning to foreign aid to help advance urgent short-term security and political priorities. This so-called hard aid entails goals and challenges that are distinct from traditional development and humanitarian aid programs, but Washington is relying on existing aid systems and structures to pursue such work in crisis countries like Syria and Yemen. While this ad hoc approach is administratively and politically convenient, it reduces strategic effectiveness and undercuts long-term development efforts. Both legislative and executive action should be taken to redress these failings."

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"The Politics of 2 Percent: NATO and the Security Vacuum in Europe"

Während des NATO-Gipfels in Wales im vergangenen Jahr haben sich die Bündnispartner verpflichtet, ihre Verteidigungsausgaben bis 2024 auf zwei Prozent ihres BIP zu erhöhen. Jan Techau hält es für unwahrscheinlich, dass dieses Ziel von allen 28 NATO-Ländern erreicht wird. Aus politischer Perspektive bleibe die Verpflichtung trotzdem wichtig. "Is the 2 percent metric a useful tool in the debate over NATO’s future? If the purpose of the target is to create and keep alive a political debate on burden sharing and capabilities, the answer would have to be a clear yes. If used well, the 2 percent debate can illustrate the changed strategic landscape in Europe and what’s at stake given the increasingly risky neighborhood Europe finds outside its borders. If employed with subtlety and determination, the 2 percent metric might be capable of creating space for at least some sort of public debate on European security. It might serve as the proverbial foot in the door that opens up spaces that are usually inaccessible."

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"Calling Out the Saudi Nuclear Bluff"

Ein wichtiges Argument der Gegner des Atomabkommens mit dem Iran sei die Warnung Saudi-Arabiens vor einem atomaren Wettrüsten im Nahen Osten, schreibt Tristan Volpe. Tatsächlich hätten die Saudis nicht die Kapazitäten, um dieser Warnung Taten folgen zu lassen. "The key weakness with the Saudi ruse is that Kingdom lacks the technical means to follow through on the threat in the short term. Saudi Arabia has several small research centers but no ability to produce the fissile material that goes into a nuclear weapon. Even if Saudi Arabia developed an enrichment capacity in ten years, this distant threat does not give them much leverage now as they ask for more reassurances from the Americans."

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"Russia - A Different Kind of Threat"

Eugene Rumer erläutert mit politischen, wirtschaftlichen und militärischen Argumenten, warum die aktuelle Herausforderung des Westens durch Russland nicht mit dem Kalten Krieg verglichen werden könne. "The failure of the post–Cold War security arrangement does not mean a return to the Cold War in Europe. Too much has changed in the past twenty-five years. Russia and Europe have become much more interdependent, the center of gravity in the world has shifted with the rise of China and the Asia-Pacific region, and U.S. interests have become much more diffuse and diverse. And Russia does not pose the challenge the Soviet Union once did. It is a smaller, weaker power, whose main challenge to the world and to U.S. interests lies not in its expansion, but in the reckless behavior that has become a key feature of its reduced presence on the world stage."

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"Prisoners’ Dilemma in Ukraine"

Paul Stronski und Isaac Webb erläutern den Umgang der ukrainischen Regierung und der Separatisten mit ihren Kriegsgefangenen, deren geregelter Austausch eigentlich ein Eckpunkt des Minsker Abkommens gewesen sei. In der Praxis habe keine der beiden Seiten genügend Kontrolle, um den Austausch wie gewünscht organisieren zu können. "Long-standing problems in Ukraine — governmental disorganization, internal political rivalries, and corruption — complicate efforts to secure the release of prisoners held in both Ukrainian government–controlled areas and separatist-held territories. (...) When POW releases or exchanges do happen, they are usually carried out in an ad hoc manner, with negotiations conducted by individual separatist leaders, often for money. The lack of an organizational structure for negotiating POW releases on the separatist side complicates the Ukrainian government’s dysfunctional efforts."

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"Why Technology Hasn’t Delivered More Democracy"

Thomas Carothers hat verschiedenen Experten die Frage gestellt, warum die kommunikationstechnologischen Innovationsschübe der letzten Jahre nicht zu dem von vielen erhofften internationalen Demokratieschub geführt haben. "These revolutionary changes all imply a profound empowerment of individuals through exponentially greater access to information, tremendous ease of communication and data-sharing, and formidable tools for networking. Yet despite these changes, democracy – the political system based on the idea of the empowerment of individuals – has in these same years been stagnant in the world. (...) How can we reconcile these two contrasting global realities — the unprecedented advance of technologies that facilitate individual empowerment and the overall lack of advance of democracy worldwide? To help answer this question I asked six experts on political change, from very different professional and national perspectives."

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"Is Unemployment to Blame for Radicalization?"

Michele Dunne meint, dass die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit unter arabischen Jugendlichen nicht allein für die Radikalisierung junger Männer im Nahen Osten verantwortlich gemacht werden sollte. Die Enttäuschung vieler junger Muslime reiche tiefer und weise auf grundlegende Probleme in vielen arabischen Gesellschaften hin. "To move beyond the oft-repeated arguments about youth unemployment and radicalization, one might consider them as two phenomena with roots in a single problem: the unwillingness of many MENA governments and ruling elites to give space to a rising generation, which wants to carry out bottom-up change that is economic (led by entrepreneurs and SMEs) as well as political and social (led by social movements, civil society, and political parties). In some ways the dignity-and-freedom uprisings of 2011 and what my colleague Maha Yahya has called the 'fatal attraction' of Arab youth to ISIS are two sides of the same coin: a young generation rejecting the economic and political order that their parents built or at least accepted. When an American doctoral student who spent time with Salafi Islamists asked one why the jihadis were always smiling while other young Tunisians seemed glum, the Tunisian replied, 'It’s because we have hope.'"

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Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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