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US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Center for Strategic and International Studies


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"Guinea: The Causes and Consequences of West Africa's Latest Coup"


Judd Devermont beleuchtet die Hintergründe und Auswirkungen des Militärputsches in Guinea: "The Guinean military's overthrow of President Alpha Condé - an outcome of autocratic overreach, economic mismanagement, and eroding democratic norms - points to the failure of regional bodies and international partners to anticipate and respond to an evolving coup playbook. On September 5, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya ousted the country's civilian leader Alpha Condé, proclaiming that 'the duty of a soldier is to save the country.' (…) If Guinea's neighbors and external partners quietly accept these conditions, it will serve as a signal to ambitious soldiers in Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, and Niger - to name just a few potential candidates - that there are limited consequences for seizing power. While it is hard to prove a contagion effect, coups d'état in the region tend to occur in waves."

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"Pathways Forward for Humanitarian Assistance in Afghanistan"


Shannon McKeown und Daniel Runde betonen die Wichtigkeit von langfristiger humanitärer Hilfe in Afghanistan. "With the country adrift without a functioning government, transportation routes closed, food systems disrupted by drought and conflict, and hundreds of thousands of people displaced, Afghanistan is teetering on the verge of a massive humanitarian crisis. (…) The important work of the humanitarian aid and international donor community must continue for the foreseeable future to prevent a widespread humanitarian catastrophe. Some ongoing issues require continued and unobstructed humanitarian aid, including food insecurity, drought conditions, the growing number of IDPs [internally displaced people], and the mounting impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic."

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"Immediate Steps to Respond to the Emergency in Afghanistan"


Die USA stünden in der moralischen Verantwortung, ihre afghanischen Ortskräfte sofort zu evakuieren, äußert Daniel Runde. "Over the last 20 years, thousands of Afghans have worked directly with the U.S. government - including with the military and the intelligence, development, and diplomatic communities - and tens of thousands more worked for support contractors, U.S. government grantees, as well as subcontractors and subgrantees. (…) First, given the immense need, chaotic situation, and unclear protocols for identifying individuals, the Biden administration should drop any discrimination against non-U.S. citizens and non-legal permanent residents (and their dependents) for evacuation. (…) While the government should use existing processes to screen people, it should first help evacuate Afghans from danger and then proceed with the appropriate procedures."

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"Learning from the War: 'Who Lost Afghanistan?' versus Learning 'Why We Lost'"


Die USA sollten den Einsatz in Afghanistan umfassend aufarbeiten und daraus Lehren ziehen, fordert Anthony Cordesman. "This effort should examine the full range of civil lessons as well as the military lessons that emerged from the entire history of the war - and not simply focus on its end. (…) And, it should consider the war's costs, and whether its strategic cost at any given point was worth prolonging it - and the lack of effective strategic triage that took two decades to cause the full U.S. withdrawal from the fighting."

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"Beyond Nord Stream 2"


Was Deutschland und die USA aus dem Streit über die Erdgaspipeline Nord Stream 2 lernen könnten, erörtert Nikos Tsafos. "One lesson is compartmentalization. For years, Nord Stream 2 has managed to derail whatever discussion that took place among Americans and Europeans on energy and climate. (...) Second, U.S. policy became increasingly disconnected from facts on the ground. Washington kept returning to a few talking points (...). Given how quickly energy markets change, it is vital for mental models to adjust more rapidly. (...) The final lesson is about geoeconomics. (...) There will be many more experiences like Nord Stream 2, absent a more honest conversation between the two sides and more appreciation for the distinct approaches that each side is taking."

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"Digital Governance: It Is Time for the United States to Lead Again"


Ein parteiübergreifender Ansatz in Washington sei entscheidend für die Führungsrolle der USA bei der digitalen Governance, schreiben Daniel F. Runde und Sundar R. Ramanujam. "Given the geopolitical stakes, the United States and its allies should coordinate with each other, partner with the private sector, and find common ground to create standards and to block authoritarian efforts. (...) There is also growing bipartisan support in Congress to recognize the need and the opportunity for the United States to lead in setting norms and establishing institutions for global trade and governance in digital technology."

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"Yemen's Civil War"


Im Gespräch mit Jon Alterman skizziert Peter Salisbury die aktuellen Entwicklungen im Jemen-Konflikt: "The big fight right now is in Marib. Marib sits to the east of Sanaa and is really the last major urban stronghold for the government and its allies in the north of Yemen. The Houthis are homing in on Marib because taking over would mean that the government doesn't have a firm foothold anywhere in Yemen. (…) Marib also has oil and gas fields, a refinery, and a power plant. If the Houthis take it over, they will have reconstituted the pre-1990 economic system that Yemen ran on, so they're very focused on getting the last piece of the jigsaw puzzle."

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"Examining Extremism: Islamic State in the Greater Sahara"


Jared Thompson skizziert die Entwicklung und Aktivitäten des sogenannten "Islamic State in the Greater Sahara": "The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), an operationally independent subgroup of Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), operates in the Liptako-Gourma region of the Sahel - which includes portions of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. In seeking to establish a Salafi-jihadist caliphate, it has inflamed community tensions and violently competed with other jihadist groups in the region. ISGS is noted for its violence against civilians and has repeatedly attacked both local and international security forces. (…) In September 2016, ISGS claimed its first armed attack, on a border post near Markoye, Burkina Faso."

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"Russia's Corporate Soldiers"


Seth Jones, Catrina Doxsee, Brian Katz, Eric McQueen und Joe Moye untersuchen den vermehrten Einsatz privater Militärunternehmen (Private Military Companies, PMCs) durch Russland: "(…) Russia has increased its use of PMCs as a tool of foreign policy, beginning around 2015. (…) PMCs such as the Wagner Group represent an important component of Russia's irregular warfare campaign (…). Yet PMCs have sometimes been ineffectual, fraudulent, and predatory. Others have plundered natural resources from fragile states. These activities by PMCs create an opportunity for the United States and its partners to better exploit Russian vulnerabilities."

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"Examining Extremism: Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin"


Jared Thompson skizziert die Entwicklung und Aktivitäten der Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims - JNIM): "Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (…) is a coalition of Salafi-jihadist insurgent groups operating in the Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa. Formed in 2017, JNIM has expanded its operating territory across West Africa while waging a sustained campaign of violence against civilians, local security forces, international militaries, and UN peacekeepers. JNIM has successfully operationalized local grievances, while responses to the insurgency have not addressed the political drivers of conflict and have facilitated human rights abuses. Attacks on security forces and violence against civilians by JNIM are both likely to continue as insurgent violence inflames community tensions and political dynamics between Sahelian states and international partners impede a comprehensive pathway to peace."

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"National Security Implications of Leadership in Autonomous Vehicles"


Der Sektor der autonomen Fahrzeuge (AV) sei elementar für die nationale Sicherheit der USA, analysiert James Lewis. "The main contribution of AVs to national security (…) does not come from self-driving tanks, but from the importance of the automotive sector to the nation. The automotive industry contributes 3.5 percent of U.S. GDP, making it one of the most important areas of industrial activity (as a comparison, the space and aerospace sector's share is 4 percent). The development of autonomous and electric vehicles involves the ability to develop and deploy a broad range of important emerging technologies, such as AI, autonomy, and electric propulsion and batteries, and will drive progress in innovation in ways that shape many sectors. Even though the vast majority of the vehicle market is commercial and civilian, when looking at the value of economic strength to national security, AVs are a critical sector for overall national security."

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"Plant Diseases and Pests Are Oft-Ignored Climate-Linked National Security Risks"


In Analysen und Diskussionen zu den sicherheitspolitischen Implikationen des Klimawandels sollte der Einfluss der Erderwärmung auf landwirtschaftliche Schädlinge und Pflanzenkrankheiten bedacht werden, argumentiert Rod Schoonover. "Since increasing temperatures affect a vast number of physiological and behavioral dimensions across all kingdoms of life, from animals and plants to algae, bacteria, and fungi, it is reasonable to assume that a subset of biotic stresses will pose risks not only to food security but to ecological stability writ large. This subset is rather consequential; the security implications of climate change cannot be fully understood without robust consideration of these biotic stressors. In addition to triggering substantial economic losses, crop diseases and agricultural pests can decimate livelihoods, disrupt social order, and undermine health. In some cases, political instability or heightened migration is likely to occur."

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"The Military, Police, and the Rise of Terrorism in the United States"


Seth Jones, Catrina Doxsee, Grace Hwang und Jared Thompson beschreiben den Anstieg der inländischen terroristischen Anschläge in den USA, die Ziele der Attentäter und in welchem Ausmaß Angehörige des US-Militärs und der Strafverfolgungsbehörden daran beteiligt sind. "The data indicate that U.S. military personnel have been involved in a growing number of domestic terrorist plots and attacks. (…) The growth is notable since individuals with a military or law enforcement background have skills that extremists want - such as proficiency in firing weapons, building explosive devices, conducting surveillance and reconnaissance, training personnel, practicing operational security, and performing other types of activities. (…) (T)he motivations for terrorism have shifted dramatically over the past two decades, from religious extremists inspired by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State after September 11, 2001, to white supremacists, anarchists, and others today."

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"Covid-19 and Global Food Security: One Year Later"


Chase Sova beleuchtet die Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Pandemie auf die globale Ernährungssicherheit. "Covid-19 is, overwhelmingly, a crisis of food access, not availability. (…) Covid-19 has created new and less expected vicitms (sic) in this hunger crisis. Because the virus has struck vulnerable wage earners so severely, it has added one new group, in particular, to global hunger rolls: urbanites in low- and middle-income countries. Although we've long considered global hunger to be an overwhelmingly rural phenomenon, Covid-19 has disproportionately impacted cities in developing countries."

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"'Lifting Up Our Values at Home': How to Revitalize NATO's Political Cohesion"


Uneinigkeit zwischen NATO-Mitgliedstaaten hinsichtlich demokratischer Prinzipien gefährde das transatlantische Verteidigungsbündnis, analysieren Rachel Ellehuus und Pierre Morcos. "(…) (D)isunity could be used by strategic competitors as venues to destabilize individual allies or NATO as a whole. As highlighted by the 2020 NATO Experts Group report, 'a drift toward NATO disunity must be seen as a strategic rather than merely tactical or optical problem.' (…) NATO can no longer afford to turn a blind eye on these internal strains."

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"The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals Supply Chains"


Die Sicherheit der Lieferketten seltener Erden und Mineralien sei zu einem globalen strategischen Thema geworden, analysiert Jane Nakano. "Supply chain security for the minerals and materials needed in clean energy technologies has become a strategic issue, not only because it could affect the pace of clean energy technology deployment around the world but also because clean energy technology has become the latest frontier for the geoeconomic rivalries sparked by China's competitive manufacturing sector."

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"Understanding China's 2021 Defense Budget"


Das aktuelle chinesische Verteidigungsbudget analysieren Bonnie Glaser, Matthew Funaiole, Bonnie Chan und Brian Hart: "Spending on the military as a share of overall national government spending will rise from 5.1 percent in 2020 to 5.4 percent in 2021 - the highest in several years. Similarly, spending as a percent of the central government budget will rise from 36.2 percent to 38.7 percent, well above the average of 34.7 percent seen over the last five years. These figures confirm that China's leaders continue to prioritize military modernization. (…) For the past decade, the annual increase in China's official military spending has outpaced its annual GDP growth, reflecting the priority that Beijing attaches to bolstering its armed forces."

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"A Post-Covid-19 Reset"


Die COVID-19-Pandemie biete afrikanischen Ländern die Möglichkeit, konstruktivere Partnerschaften zu anderen Staaten aufzubauen, konstatiert Judd Devermont. "Since the Covid-19 outbreak (…) African leaders and publics have sharpened their critiques of and insisted on much more from their foreign partnerships. (…) The tension between what Africans, African governments, and external partners want from one another acts as a brake on a post-Covid-19 reset. It may not be possible to reconcile these different agendas, but understanding and acknowledging these disagreements and trade-offs between priorities are prerequisites for a new relationship."

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"Rethinking Migration Is a Security Imperative - Just Not How You Might Think"


Erol Yayboke und Marie McAuliffe skizzieren die langfristigen Implikationen der Covid-19-Pandemie für globale Migrationsbewegungen. "The pandemic is being used as a further excuse to increase the securitization of migration. This puts the focus in the wrong place and is counterproductive to relieving Covid-19-related pressures, often forcing more would-be regular (legal) migrants into irregular pathways while distracting from the real security challenges that exist along such pathways."

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"Geoeconomics without Fossil Fuels"


US-Präsident Bidens Executive Order zur Bewältigung der Klimakrise werde den Energiemarkt stark beeinflussen, analysiert Nikos Tsafos. Fest stehe jedoch auch: Die Abkehr von fossilen Brennstoffen "requires a deep change in thinking - a clear understanding of what the United States is giving up, and some creativity to find a balance between competing domestic and foreign policy priorities."

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"Data: Governance and Geopolitics"


CSIS Senior Advisor Gregory F. Treverton meint, dass Big Data eine immense Bedeutung für das einundzwanzigste Jahrhundert habe. Dennoch sei unklar, wie diese Informationen verwaltet werden sollten. "The digital age presents geopolitical and philosophical problems with complexity and speed beyond the reach of the existing global architecture that underrepresents both emerging powers, like China, and ever more influential private sector actors, from the tech giants to the Gates Foundation. We are addressing twenty-first-century problems with a twentieth-century mindset, approach, and toolkit."

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"The Battle of Mekelle and Its Implications for Ethiopia"


Judd Devermont vom Center for Strategic and International Studies beantwortet wichtige Fragen zum aktuellen Konflikt in Äthiopien und zur Einnahme von Mekelle durch Regierungstruppen. "On November 28, Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed congratulated the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) for seizing control of Mekelle, the capital of Ethiopia’s restive Tigray region, after nearly a month of mounting violence between the government and rebel Tigrayan forces. Abiy declared that he would focus on 'rebuilding the region and providing humanitarian assistance while Federal Police apprehend the [Tigray People’s Liberation Front] TPLF clique.' The prime minister’s triumphant message, however, underplays the human toll of the conflict; dismisses the risk of an insurgency and regional spill over; and discounts damage to the country’s democratic transition."

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"Covid Hasn’t Crushed the Middle East … Yet"


Jon B. Alterman stellt fest, dass die politischen Folgen der Coronakrise im Nahen Osten bisher überschaubar geblieben seien. "The Middle East is being hit hard by Covid-19 but, up to now, its regimes have not been. Governmental responses to the virus have varied, from draconian to technocratic to laissez-faire, and none sparked a major backlash. Case numbers are now rising sharply, and once again, there is no significant backlash. Much is unknown about the virus, yet what is becoming clear is that caseloads’ rise and fall seems not to drive political unrest, regardless of either mortality or economic impact. As the Middle East undergoes a punishing second wave of infections, though, that premise will be tested."

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"Four Myths about Russian Grand Strategy"


Robert Person widerlegt in diesem Beitrag vier verbreitete "Mythen" über die geopolitische Strategie Russlands. "This paper seeks to clear up some of those misconceptions by identifying and dispelling four common myths about Russian grand strategy. Myth #1: Russia’s grand strategy is driven by ideology (…) Myth #2: Russia seeks to reconstruct the Soviet Union or Russian Empire. (…) Myth #3: Russia seeks to restore a bygone world order (…) Myth #4:  Putin is an opportunist, not a strategist (…) There is little doubt that Russia has a grand strategy, regardless of whether it is reflected in foundational national security documents. In analyzing Russia’s words and deeds, it seems clear it has well-developed strategic objectives and that Moscow coordinates a wide range of resources and methods to pursue them. In other words, Russia behaves strategically."

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"Four Scenarios for Geopolitical Order in 2025-2030: What Will Great Power Competition Look Like?"


Das Center for Strategic and International Studies und die Foresight Group haben vier Szenarien für die Entwicklung der geopolitischen Ordnung in den kommenden zehn Jahren entworfen. "The scenarios center on the relative power and influence of the United States and China and the interaction between them, along with detailed consideration of other major U.S. allies and adversaries within each of four worlds. Each scenario narrative was informed by deep trends analysis and subject-matter-expert interviews. CSIS’s Dracopoulos iDeas Lab brought to life the scenarios in four engaging videos designed to test policymakers’ preconceived notions about the defense and security challenges facing the United States and its allies in the second half of this decade."

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"With Friends Like These: Assessing Russian Influence in Germany"


Jeffrey Mankoff hat sich in dieser Studie für das Center for Strategic and International Studies mit dem russischen Einfluss in Deutschland beschäftigt. "This report is the Germany case study of an ambitious year-long CSIS initiative to analyze Russian influence activities in the United Kingdom and Germany and Chinese influence activities in Japan and Australia. As Europe’s unquestioned heavyweight and a country with deep political, economic, and cultural ties to Russia, Germany has been a frequent target of Russian influence activities. Yet compared to other countries, Germany has proven relatively resilient. In this report, Jeffrey Mankoff examines the nature and tactics of Russian influence operations in Germany, which characteristics have made Germany vulnerable and resistant to Russian influence, and what lessons the German experience offers for other democratic states in countering malign influence activities."

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"The Escalating Terrorism Problem in the United States"


Das Center for Strategic and International Studies warnt in dieser Studie, dass die Terrorismusgefahr in den USA in den nächsten Jahren vor allem von rechtsextremen Tätern ausgehen könnte. "This CSIS brief examines the state of terrorism in the United States. It asks two sets of questions. First, what are the most significant types of terrorism in the United States, and how has the terrorism threat in the U.S. homeland evolved over time? Second, what are the implications for terrorism over the next year? To answer these questions, this analysis compiles and analyzes an original data set of 893 terrorist plots and attacks in the United States between January 1994 and May 2020. This analysis makes several arguments. First, far-right terrorism has significantly outpaced terrorism from other types of perpetrators, including from far-left networks and individuals inspired by the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. (…) Second, terrorism in the United States will likely increase over the next year in response to several factors. One of the most concerning is the 2020 U.S. presidential election, before and after which extremists may resort to violence, depending on the outcome of the election. Far-right and far-left networks have used violence against each other at protests, raising the possibility of escalating violence during the election period."

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"Use of Military Forces in the COVID-19 Emergency"


Mark F. Cancian erläutert in diesem FAQ, auf welche Weise sich das US-Militär an der Bekämpfung der Corona-Pandemie in den USA beteiligen könnte. "As the effects of COVID-19 are increasingly felt around the United States, many officials and commentators have asked what role the U.S. military might play as part of the response. Several state governors have already called up elements of the National Guard as part of their emergency measures. This analysis addresses the distinctive roles of U.S. federal military forces and state National Guard units, the ways U.S. forces could be most helpful, the limitations on military forces, and the potential cost of employing the military to help fight the coronavirus."

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"Maritime Claims of the Indo-Pacific"


Die Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative des Center for Strategic and International Studies hat eine interaktive Karte mit den Territorialansprüchen der Anrainerstaaten im Indopazifik veröffentlicht. "Who’s Claiming What? Explore the maritime claims of nearly 40 countries across the Indo-Pacific. All claims are shown based on states’ domestic legislation, treaties, and submissions to international bodies. The map is an unbiased depiction of claims; it does not judge their legality or guess at future delimitations."

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"Are Sanctions Working in Venezuela?"


Moises Rendon hält die US-Sanktionen gegen Venezuela in seiner Kurzanalyse für das Center for Strategic and International Studies für ein geeignetes Mittel, um die Maduro-Regierung unter Druck zu setzen. Er empfiehlt eine Ausweitung der Strafmaßnahmen. "The first important step is to encourage multilateral adoption of currently targeted sanctions. Unilateral sanctions, even from the most powerful economy in the world, have limited results. In addition to incorporating allied neighbors Colombia and Brazil, the United States should take advantage of the Lima Group, which has recently taken a strong stance on Maduro’s crusade against democracy. (...) The United States and its allies must use sanctions deliberately as a tool to shut down Maduro’s criminal activities. (...) Another method could be the reallocation of assets recovered from sanctioned officials in the Venezuelan government and military. These assets could be forfeited to nongovernmental organizations helping the most deprived Venezuelans. (...) Sanctions can take time to have their intended effect and, even when successful, are not sufficient to dismember and rebuild a government. They are simply a tool for coercing good behavior. In order to help Venezuelans restore their democracy, sanctions are key to increasing pressure on the Maduro regime. But a focus on targeted sanctions is not enough. Having a feasible exit ramp for Maduro and his inner circle while having a compassionate effort at humanitarian assistance are crucial."

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