US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

International Institute for Strategic Studies


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07.01.2022

"Looking ahead to 2022: IISS experts assess key global strategic challenges"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2022/01/looking-ahead-to-2022-iiss-experts-assess-key-global-strategi
c-challenges

Expertinnen und Experten des International Institute for Strategic Studies skizzieren strategische Herausforderungen, die 2022 zu erwarten seien: "One year after the US Capitol insurrection, the United States continues to face the most significant threat to its democracy since the American Civil War. (…) A cash-strapped Latin America will continue to rely on China - its most important trading partner if one excludes Mexico - for trade, investment and financing, as well as for its infrastructure needs. (…) In the worst case, renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine could lead to the most severe conflict between regular armies in Europe since the Second World War."

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10.12.2021

"Security and the Arctic: navigating between cooperation and competition"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2021/12/security-and-the-arctic-navigating-between-cooperation-
and-competition

Nick Childs analysiert die sich verändernden Sicherheitsdynamiken in der Arktis: "The Arctic region is undergoing particularly dramatic change, driven chiefly by environmental factors resulting from climate change. (…) New geostrategic frictions are emerging as a result of increased military activities and the prospect of new maritime routes and greater access to resources; the increased focus on how to respond to the threat to the environment; and the impact of all this on Arctic populations and especially indigenous peoples. This is adding to the complexities of relations between different players and creating new dynamics of cooperation and competition in and around the region, with the increasing interest and potential influence of China one of the most significant developments in play."

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15.11.2021

"How climate change risks further destabilising Central America"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2021/11/how-climate-change-risks-further-destabilising-central-americ
a

Juan Pablo Bickel und Irene Mia analysieren die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Stabilität und Sicherheit Zentralamerikas: "Global warming is increasingly exacerbating the many socio-economic ills affecting the Northern Triangle of Central America - a sub-region comprised of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. (…) Climate change adds yet another layer of complexity to the sub-region's precarious situation, aggravating powerful drivers of instability and insecurity for the Americas as a whole. Larger flows of migrants and higher levels of forced displacement - in response to economic misery and violence exacerbated by climate change - will cause further social, political and economic strain in transit and destination countries, offer new opportunities for criminal groups to scale up their activities, and result in heightened tensions among governments of the region and beyond."

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03.09.2021

"'Cruise Missiles in the Middle East'"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2021/09/cruise-missiles-in-the-middle-east

Das International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) gibt einen Überblick über die Verbreitung von Marschflugkörpern im Nahen Osten und deren Auswirkungen auf die regionale Stabilität: "Once the exclusive realm of the Middle East's sole nuclear power, Israel, the proliferation of cruise-missile systems has steadily picked up pace in the last two decades. Iran and Turkey have joined Israel in the club of nations developing and producing their own cruise missiles, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) appearing to take first steps in this direction. (…) Potentially the most destabilising characteristic of cruise missiles in the Middle Eastern context is their ability to offset air superiority and upend established military capabilities. (…) [C]ruise missiles provide users with the possibility of conducting strikes deep inside an adversary's territory that might otherwise be protected by advanced aerial capabilities or air defences. Cruise missiles are therefore an attractive option for actors that are attempting to overturn the regional military status quo."

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27.08.2021

"Saudi Arabia's ballistic-missile programme: an overview"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2021/08/saudi-arabia-ballistic-missile-programme

Mark Fitzpatrick gibt einen Überblick über das ballistische Raketenprogramm Saudi-Arabiens: "For over three decades, Saudi Arabia's ballistic-missile inventory consisted of large systems imported from China that exceeded range requirements to target regional adversaries. (…) Other than a general desire to keep pace with Iran, Saudi Arabia's motivations in acquiring ballistic missiles are not entirely clear. That said, Riyadh's missiles do not elicit the level of concern sparked by Iran's missile programme, and for good reason. While the DF-3 does have a longer reach than any of Iran's current systems, Saudi Arabia is not known to have initiated any work to develop a nuclear warhead for its missiles, which are of questionable utility, and it does not engage in missile test launches."

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25.08.2021

"Israel's ballistic-missile programme: an overview"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2021/08/israel-ballistic-missile-programme

Mark Fitzpatrick gibt einen Überblick über das ballistische Raketenprogramm Israels: "In addition to several cruise-missile systems, Israel has ballistic missiles with short, medium and, reportedly, intermediate ranges, which contribute to the state's strategic deterrence. Israel first developed ballistic missiles in the 1960s in concert with the French aerospace company Dassault. (…) Although Israel is not an MTCR [Missile Technology Control Regime] member (though it has applied to join), it has adhered to the group's guidelines since 1992."

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23.08.2021

"Iran and US still far apart on reviving the JCPOA"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2021/08/iran-us-jcpoa

Die Verhandlungen um eine Wiederbelebung des internationalen Atomabkommens mit Iran (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) seien ins Stocken geraten, konstatiert John Krzyzaniak. "Since Iran, the United States and other parties (China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK and the European Union) wrapped up the sixth round of talks aimed at restoring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on 20 June, the negotiations have been at a standstill. (…) [U]nrealistic demands from both the US and Iran indicate that an agreement to revive the deal may not happen soon, if at all. (…) While the discussions in Vienna have yielded real progress, both sides will need to make additional compromises if they want to revive the deal."

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27.07.2021

"Turkey in the Sahel"

https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/turkey-sahel

Hannah Armstrong analysiert die Aktivitäten der Türkei in der Sahelregion: "Turkey's forays into the Sahel have so far been mainly an exercise in soft-power projection. Ankara's activities in the region are mostly focused on development support and commercial engagement. True, it has signed a defence accord with Niamey. It is also the case that in Somalia, Turkish aid and business subsequently led to more military engagement, though for the most part Turkish involvement there has been constructive and not in conflict with Western aims."

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14.07.2021

"DPRK strategic capabilities and security on the Korean Peninsula: looking ahead"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2021/07/dprk-strategic-capabilities-security-korean-peninsula

Das International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) bewertet in einem gemeinsamen Bericht mit dem Center for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS) Nordkoreas Fortschritte bei der Entwicklung von Nuklear- und Raketenfähigkeiten sowie mögliche Schritte zur Schaffung eines dauerhaften Friedens auf der koreanischen Halbinsel. Im Mittelpunkt stehe dabei die Kooperation zwischen Russland und den USA. "CENESS and IISS hope that the report will serve as a catalyst for further discussions between researchers and officials on possible measures to reduce tensions and nuclear-related risks and build confidence in the region."

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18.03.2021

"Can the UK deliver on its bold ambitions for a global military presence?"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2021/03/uk-global-military-presence-integrated-review

Den außenpolitischen Leitlinien Großbritanniens fehle es an detaillierten Anweisungen, wie die im Dokument angeführte Ambition eines "Global Britain" in der Realität erreicht werden könne, konstatieren Ben Barry, Nick Childs und Douglas Barrie. "The details of what the review's vision for a 'global Britain' will mean in terms of equipment, force structure and capability changes are to be announced on 22 March. But even with the additional funding for the Ministry of Defence of £16.5 billion (US$21.bn) over four years announced in November 2020, long-running difficulties with equipment procurement and cost overruns mean that to fund anticipated investment in emerging 'sunrise' capabilities including uninhabited systems, space and cyber, there will have to be considerable reductions of older 'sunset' capabilities that are assessed to be less relevant, such as some older land, sea and air platforms."

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16.03.2021

"The geo-economics and geopolitics of COVID-19: implications for European security"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2021/03/covid-19-european-security

Die COVID-19-Pandemie werde die Sicherheitspolitik verändern, prognostizieren Bastian Giegerich, Fenella McGerty und Peter Round. "Many governments will emerge from the coronavirus pandemic laden with debt and a severely depressed outlook for economic growth. It is conceivable that among the second- and third-order effects of the pandemic is an accelerated rebalancing of power away from the Euro-Atlantic community. (…) The pandemic itself may be a driver of instability and insecurity at a time when the ability to deliver stabilising measures and crisis-management capacity is weakened. (…) From the perspective of security and defence policy, the pandemic further complicates an already challenging picture, straining resources while adding to a long list of relevant threat vectors and risks."

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25.02.2021

"Editor's introduction to The Military Balance 2021"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2021/02/military-balance-2021-introduction

Das International Institute for Strategic Studies fasst die Ergebnisse ihrer Military Balance 2021 zusammen, einer jährlichen Bewertung der militärischen Fähigkeiten und Verteidigungsausgaben von 171 Staaten: "Conflict and confrontation did not abate, and great-power competition continued to drive some countries' defence planning considerations and procurement decisions. (…) Global defence spending increased in 2020 to reach US$1.83 trillion, growing by 3.9% in real terms. This growth was only slightly lower than in 2019, notwithstanding the pandemic and subsequent 4.4% contraction in global economic output. (…) European and NATO cohesion has been tested by continued transatlantic disagreement on issues including defence spending, escalating tensions between NATO members Greece and Turkey, and the still-unfolding effects of the UK's decision to leave the European Union. (…) China's military modernisation continues to drive procurement and R&D efforts in the US and is also shaping defence policies in the Asia-Pacific."

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12.02.2021

"Biden, climate change and defence: coming in from the cold"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2021/02/biden-climate-change-defence

Auch im Bereich der Verteidigung engagiere sich die neue US-Regierung unter Präsident Biden für den Klimawandel, bemerken Ben Barry, Douglas Barrie und Nick Childs. Dies habe Konsequenzen: "In identifying climate change as a national security issue, Biden has underscored the growing impact it will have on US and allied militaries from teeth to tail, ranging from combat units to their support and logistics arms. (…) The shift in Washington should reinforce the US armed forces' efforts to address the challenges of cutting carbon emissions and also revive broader cooperation between the US and its allies in this area."

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11.02.2021

"China's Digital Silk Road: integration into national IT infrastructure and wider implications for Western defence industries"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2021/02/china-digital-silk-road-implications-for-defence-indust
ry

Anhand von Länderstudien analysieren verschiedene Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler die Auswirkungen von chinesischen Investitionen im Digitalbereich auf die verteidigungsindustrielle Zusammenarbeit westlicher Staaten. "Despite the varied and, in some instances, deep integration of Chinese ICT investments in national ICT ecosystems, this did not seem to have an impact on the defence and intelligence cooperation between the US and the countries studied."

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18.06.2020

"Understanding the military build-up on the China–India border"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2020/06/china-india-border

Henry Boyd und Meia Nouwens haben Satellitenaufnahmen ausgewertet, um einen Eindruck von der militärischen Situation an der Grenze Chinas zu Indien im Himalaja zu erhalten. "Unverified videos began circulating on social media from 5 May, showing scuffles between Indian and Chinese personnel along India’s disputed western border with China. Though subsequent open-source reporting has been prolific, official information from either side has not, and details have remained vague and often conflicting. Open-source satellite imagery suggests that the most alarming claims, that 10,000 troops from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have crossed the nominal Line of Actual Control (LAC) and are occupying undisputed Indian territory, appear to have been unsubstantiated. However, there is credible evidence to suggest that both China and India have significantly reinforced their positions on their respective sides of the de-facto border, leading to a series of military-to-military talks aimed at resolving the current situation. The fatal clashes that took place during this de-escalation process in mid-June underline the tense nature of the situation and the continuing challenges to its successful resolution."

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04.06.2020

"Will COVID-19 change the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific?"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2020/06/geopolitics-covid-19-indo-pacific

Lynn Kuok analysiert in diesem Beitrag für das International Institute for Strategic Studies die geopolitischen Folgen der Corona-Pandemie im indo-pazifischen Raum. Sie erwartet nicht, dass regionale Machtstrukturen neu geordnet werden. Die Spannungen zwischen den USA und China dürften sich ihrer Ansicht nach allerdings spürbar verschärfen. "The crucial factors at play in regional geopolitics will remain, first, China’s behaviour in the South China Sea and elsewhere; second, the reliability of the United States as an ally and partner, and its ability to frame the contest as one that is not about containing China but supporting a free and open Indo-Pacific (this makes it easier for allies and partners to sign up to a joint vision); and third, the ability of the United States and middle powers, including Japan and Australia, to offer alternatives or even complements to the Belt and Road Initiative, whether in relation to infrastructure development or, as will become increasingly important, in healthcare. Chinese President Xi Jinping has wasted no time in talking up a 'Health Silk Road'. Any increased focus on healthcare in the region will not mean a turning inwards and the end of geopolitical competition; rather, health systems and securing critical medical supply chains look set to become yet another arena in which great-power rivalry will play out."

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11.05.2020

"From Wuhan to the World: How the Pandemic Will Reshape Geopolitics"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/survival-blog/2020/05/from-wuhan-to-the-world

Der luxemburgisch-französische Politikberater François Heisbourg analysiert die Auswirkungen der Coronakrise auf die Rolle des Staates und die geopolitischen Beziehungen. Dabei entwickelt er im Hinblick auf die EU ein durchaus positives Szenario, das seiner Ansicht nach ebenso wahrscheinlich ist wie viele Untergangsszenarien. "In this one, most of the EU’s labour force is on partial employment (or at worst furlough), and its return to work is quicker than that in the US, whose firms have lost trusted employees. The eurozone’s members agree on a recovery package of, say, €500 billion, on top of the European Central Bank’s financial support and national efforts, with business picking up in an intact single market and eurozone. Competent deconfinement avoids the coalescence of temporary internal borders. EU member states rediscover the political virtues of external borders, reaching a de facto consensus on both immigration policy and forging a muscular approach to trade backed up by Chinese-style industrial policy and data management. China itself will no longer have unfettered IT access to Europe while forbidding foreign access behind its Great Firewall. The same goes for GAFAM, which has already learned that the EU has real power in such areas. How likely is such an outcome? The EU, in its signature, rather crablike mode of decision-making, is already doing a number of similar things, indeed rather quickly: by mid-April, it appeared to be getting its financial powers into array, contentiously but expeditiously."

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03.12.2018

"Iran’s missile test: a provocation, not a violation"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/survival-blog/2018/12/iran-missile-test

US-Außenminister Pompeo hat dem Iran vorgeworfen, mit dem Test einer ballistischen Mittelstreckenrakete eine Resolution des UN-Sicherheitsrates verletzt zu haben. Mark Fitzpatrick erklärt, warum er den Vorwurf und die dahinter stehende Iran-Strategie der US-Regierung für falsch hält. "Perhaps Pompeo cared less for legalisms because he is more invested in the all-out campaign to undermine the Iranian leadership. The thinking seems to be that in such an economic and psychological war, anything goes. ‘Throw it up against the wall, and see what sticks,’ is the classic catchphrase for such tactics. (...) The pattern of exaggeration undermines what should be an emphasis on Iran’s most dangerous forms of behaviour. Among the most worrisome are its supply of missiles and rockets to Houthis and to Hizbullah. (...) Yet the US policy for countering such weapons transfers is tied up in contradictions. The most glaring is that by wrapping up the demand to stop such transfers with a dozen other demands that Iran could never accept in totality, the US has no leverage to stop the arms trade. Even if Iran did so, US policy is not to offer any benefit unless Iran also succumbs on all other fronts."

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24.09.2018

"The dawn of a new strategic era in outer space"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2018/09/iiss-observatory-24-sept

Sean Kanuck und Alana Vogel präsentieren ein neues redaktionelles Angebot des International Institute for Strategic Studies und erklären, welche strategischen Folgen eine mögliche Militarisierung des Weltalls haben könnte. "Control of outer space will likely be the twenty-first century strategic equivalent of the British navy’s global dominance of the high seas in a previous era – whoever can move personnel, materiel or information between remote locations on the planet the fastest will have a distinct advantage. That metaphor also serves well regarding the East India Company, which assumed important sovereign prerogatives in the hands of private corporate interests. (...) The actions of the major powers raise important questions as to the inevitability of the 'weaponisation' of outer space and what that would entail. Could expanded military sensing and monitoring platforms actually increase mutual security as during the Cold War? Will purportedly defensive installations undermine credible nuclear deterrents and thereby heighten security dilemmas? How could offensive, space-borne capabilities short of WMD affect terrestrial power dynamics? How will private companies protect and defend their economic interests in space?"

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29.07.2018

"How can we stop Iran’s space programme threatening the West?"

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2018/07/reduce-risk-iran-develop-icbm-nuclear

Michael Elleman vom International Institute for Strategic Studies meint, dass sich die internationalen Verhandlungen mit dem Iran dem iranischen Raketenprogramm zuwenden sollten. "With the nuclear accord consequently on life support, it is not too late to pursue diplomatic measures that address the growing challenge posed by Iran’s ballistic missiles. The most promising would be to lock in, through negotiations, the 2,000 kilometre-range limit that Iran has previously stated is its maximum requirement. While this would not reduce the threat perceived by Iran’s regional neighbours, it would forestall development of systems that could target Western Europe or North America. Tehran is not likely to commit to verification measures for such negotiated range limits, however, without receiving something in return. One bargain that could be considered would be to allow Iran to continue its satellite-launch programme, under certain conditions, while capping the maximum range of its ballistic missiles. Such a trade-off may also be relevant to the North Korean case."

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13.03.2017

"The Emperor vs the Adults: Donald Trump and Wilhelm II"

http://www.iiss.org/en/politics and strategy/blogsections/2017-6dda/march-fa6f/the-emperor-vs-the-adults-
heisbourg-4887

Der französische Politikwissenschaftler und Politikberater François Heisbourg vergleicht die Persönlichkeit von US-Präsident Trump in einem neuen Beitrag für das International Institute for Strategic Studies mit der von Kaiser Wilhelm II. "Some analogies are less imperfect than others, however. Trump-as-Wilhelm-II works because it is grounded in personality and character traits. So it is not only a historical analogy: humans evolve slowly, and there is nothing surprising about finding, within the span of a century, two leaders sharing quasi-identical personalities. This is arguably the case between the German emperor and the American president, including in the manner in which the personalities express themselves, albeit via different mediums. Wilhelm II’s propensity to go on semantic rampages in the press or in public addresses is closely reminiscent of @realDonaldTrump’s tweetstorms. 'No Chinese will ever again dare look cross-eyed at a German', proclaimed the Kaiser to the troops setting off to suppress the Boxer Rebellion in what became known as the 'Hun speech'. Calls arose for his abdication in 1908 after he managed to insult most of Germany’s partners in an intemperate interview with the Daily Telegraph. As in the case of Trump’s Twitter feed before and after the presidential election, examples abound of Wilhelm’s basic lack of limits."

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12.01.2017

"Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia"

http://www.iiss.org/en/events/events/archive/2017-7df9/january-eea6/washington-adelphi-book-launch-everyo
ne-loses-2d6a

Samuel Charap und Timothy J. Colton haben in einer Podiumsdiskussion des International Institute for Strategic Studies ausgeführt, warum das internationale Ringen um die politische Kontrolle in der Ukraine für alle Beteiligten zu einem "ruinösen Wettbewerb" geworden sei. Die Aufzeichnung der Veranstaltung ist vom IISS als YouTube-Video bereitgestellt worden. "Disorder erupted in Ukraine in 2014, involving the overthrow of a sitting government, the Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula, and a violent insurrection, supported by Moscow, in the east of the country. This crisis has yielded a ruinous outcome, in which all the parties are worse off and international security has deteriorated. The upshot has been systematic losses for Russia, the West and the countries caught in between. In this new book, Samuel Charap and Timothy J. Colton examine the roots of the Ukraine crisis, offering a coherent narrative of Western and Russian policies in post-Soviet Eurasia since 1991, and providing a balanced assessment of both Russia and the West’s actions post-2014. They argue that all governments involved must recognise the failure of current policies and commit to finding mutually acceptable alternatives."

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