US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Foreign Policy Research Institute


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"The Swiss Model vs. Swedish Model in Dealing with China"

Aus chinesischer Perspektive bildet die Schweiz den Modellfall für die Beziehungen Pekings zu Europa, schreibt Joseph de Weck. Die Schweiz rücke wirtschaftliche Aspekte in den Vordergrund und hebe chinesische Menschenrechtsverletzungen bewusst nicht hervor. Bis 2015 sei dieses Prinzip weitgehend auch von Schweden vertreten worden. "But everything changed when Gui Minhai, a Swedish book publisher critical of the CCP, was abducted in 2015 while on holiday in Thailand and only resurfaced in mainland China. In February this year, Gui was sentenced to 10 years in prison for 'providing intelligence' to foreigners. Sweden tried in vain to secure his release. (…) The contrast between the Swiss and Swedish case demonstrates that Western countries’ relationships with China remain inherently fragile. A single national vocally criticizing the CCP prompting Beijing to extend its repression beyond its borders can ruin a relationship. Once the conflict has become public, it is difficult for democracies to back down. Seventy percent of Swedes now have a negative view of China, polls show. And for Beijing’s leaders, as for all autocrats, political survival trumps economic considerations. It is a cautionary tale for the leaders of Western nations that continue banking on China for economic salvation."

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"The Enduring Legacy of French and Belgian Islamic State Foreign Fighters"

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Colin P. Clarke und Emelie Chace-Donahue machen auf das anhaltende Bedrohungspotential von IS-Heimkehrern in Frankreich und Belgien aufmerksam. Die Gefahr gehe dabei nicht nur von unmittelbar drohenden Anschlägen, sondern auch von der Propagandatätigkeit der Dschihadisten in und außerhalb von Gefängnissen aus. "In the penitentiary system, interaction between returnees and other criminals could facilitate the spread of violent extremism. The threat of radicalization in prisons is especially pronounced in Belgium, where returnees are dispersed throughout the country’s standard prisons and have the opportunity to indoctrinate fellow prisoners. Belgium’s overcrowded prisons could make it difficult for prison authorities to monitor returnees’ activities. Radicalization will likely occur outside of prison as well. By the end of 2020, most Belgian returnees and many French returnees will be released. While authorities will continue to monitor returnees, there will be people radicalized by returnees who escape authorities’ radar."

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"Through Thick and Thin: Will Danish Military Engagements with the U.S. Endure in the Middle East?"

Helle Malmvig vom Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS) hat sich mit den Hintergründen und Perspektiven der engen militärischen Kooperation Dänemarks mit den USA im Nahen Osten beschäftigt. Sie stellt fest, dass der Streit um Grönland zu einer Neubewertung der bisherigen dänischen Position führen könnte. "A newly independent inquiry into Denmark’s military engagements, commissioned by the Danish Parliament, concludes that Denmark’s military engagements in the Middle East have had little to do with any direct threats to Danish national security. Rather, they are results of shifting governments’ eagerness to respond to U.S. demands and proving Denmark’s usefulness. Denmark is a 'super Atlanticist,' meaning that it unequivocally supports U.S. policies and its role in the world, and is willing to pursue even costly and risky policies to maintain its special relationship with the U.S.  In contrast, 'Atlanticist' countries, such as Holland, Belgium, Norway, and Greece, are also closely allied with the U.S., but have at times refrained from supporting or outright condemned U.S. foreign policies and wars. To grasp just how influential the U.S. is on Danish foreign and security policy, it may be useful to compare it with the Cold War period. (...) With Denmark suddenly a target of Trump’s fire and fury, some Danish politicians are questioning what the Danes got out of being so supportive of U.S. policies and interventions. Did we not earn any 'points' in Washington? This may soon have very real policy implications."

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"One Voice, But Whose Voice? Should France Cede Its UN Security Council Seat to the EU?"

Deutschland und Frankreich haben zum ersten Mal in der UN-Geschichte eine Teilung ihres Vorsitzes im UN-Sicherheitsrat vereinbart. Trotz dieser symbolischen Geste bestehe der Dissens in der Frage, ob Frankreich seinen ständigen Sitz im Rat "europäisieren" sollte, weiter fort, schreibt Hajnalka Vincze vom Foreign Policy Research Institute. "The Germans wish to see France’s permanent member status Europeanized — in other words, transferred to the European Union as a whole. Paris continues to respond to such suggestions with a resounding non. At first glance, this disagreement might look like French national 'egoism' standing in the way of Germany’s splendid ambitions for Europe. On closer inspection, however, it is rather the other way around. (...) Europeans are, as a rule, unable to defend the same position on major geopolitical issues. Be it the Iraq war, Russia, Jerusalem, or arms sales, they are virtually never on the same page. (...) Due to this self-inflicted impotence, the idea of an independent and strategically powerful Europe, and the positions that it entails, are most often defended by France (alone, or with some of the other Member States). (...) Seen from this perspective, nothing could be more counterproductive than to sacrifice one of these means, namely the permanent UNSC seat, on the altar of a pseudo-Europeanization made in Germany."

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"Yulia Tymoshenko: Ukraine’s Candidate of Uncertainty"

Stephanie Petrella bezeichnet Yulia Tymoshenko vor den ukrainischen Präsidentschaftswahlen am 31. März als "Kandidatin der Unsicherheit", deren Sieg Russland gelegen kommen würde. "Campaigning on a 'new course' for Ukraine, Tymoshenko proffers uncertainty that may well jeopardize Ukraine’s interests and benefit its hostile neighbor to the east. (...) It is not just Tymoshenko’s resistance to IMF-mandated reforms that worries Western economic organizations. At the heart of her economic plan are populist policies that threaten macroeconomic stability. While reducing taxes for ordinary Ukrainians by replacing income tax with a profit tax, Tymoshenko wants to increase public expenditures to develop industry, infrastructure, agriculture, and high-tech innovation centers. (...) Regarding the war in the East, Tymoshenko promises to overhaul the current diplomatic process. As an opposition candidate, her best argument for election is that Poroshenko has failed to deliver on his promise to end the war. Recognizing that the Minsk peace agreements helped limit the scope and intensity of the conflict, Tymoshenko asserts that it is time for Ukraine to discuss new strategies. At the center of Tymoshenko’s “new strategy for peace and security” is a proposal to revisit the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which the United States, United Kingdom, and Russia offered Ukraine security assurances in exchange for relinquishing the world’s third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons."

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"The Belt, the Road, and Latin America"

China hat sein globales Investitionsprojekt der Neuen Seidenstraße in den vergangenen Jahren nach Lateinamerika ausgeweitet. June Teufel Dreyer erläutert konkrete Fallbeispiele und erkennt die oft genannten Probleme der "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) wieder. "There is nothing inherently wrong with the BRI: many countries might welcome cooperation with China as an opportunity to play the PRC off against traditional trading partners. BRI is also attractive since it carries potential for gain, both for individual leaders — several have been accused of corruption — and their countries. However, many appear to have given too little thought to the possible disadvantages. (...) at least currently, problems seem to outweigh advantages. To concerns with the lack of transparency in agreements should be added the potential for de-industrialization: concentration on supplying the food and energy demands of the PRC has diverted attention from the industrialization that LAC countries have long pursued. Since Chinese-manufactured goods typically undercut the prices of domestically produced equivalents, there has been de-industrialization in some sectors and a decrease in inter-LAC trade in favor of trade with the PRC. It is also necessary to remember that what the PRC promises does not always materialize. Finally, it has proved impossible for the diverse countries of the LAC to speak with one voice with Beijing: as has been seen with purchases of Argentine soya being switched to Brazil after a trade spat, China can play one LAC state against another."

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"Russian and Iranian 'Victory' in Syria: Does it matter?"

Die These, dass Iran und Russland vom angekündigten US-Truppenabzug aus Syrien profitieren werden, ist nach Ansicht von Christopher J. Bolan richtig und zugleich bedeutungslos, da der "Sieg" beider Mächte in Syrien lange zuvor festgestanden habe. "In the short-term, a U.S. withdrawal from Syria will undoubtedly be perceived as ceding regional influence to leaders in Moscow and Tehran. Nonetheless, this outcome was largely determined at the outset for reasons previously discussed. Moreover, this apparent ‘victory’ will come at strategic costs for both Russia and Iran that will mount over time. (...) The U.S. (...) retains a tremendous amount of prospective leverage over the massive international assistance efforts that will be required to restore Syria to a functioning state. Direct financial assistance would provide U.S. officials with important insights into these programs and serve as a source of leverage in demanding that these projects be fully transparent and effectively monitored by reputable international, regional, or local Syrian organizations. Even in the absence of substantial financial contributions, the U.S. has the technical expertise and political weight to serve as an effective overall coordinator for programs that will be administered by the European Union and other U.S. allied partners who will be likely be essential contributors."

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"Russian-North Korean Relations Factsheet"

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein und Natalia Kopytnik haben eine Infografik über die Beziehungen Russlands zu Nordkorea erstellt. "This infographic gives a brief overview of Russian-North Korean relations and draws on information from two reports published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute on the current crisis on the Korea peninsula. It is part of a larger project evaluating the current state of U.S.-North Korea and Russia-North Korea relations as well as other key actors in the region."

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"The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review: Signaling Restraint with Stipulations"

Paul Bracken hält den Bericht zur neuen Nuklearstrategie des Pentagons auch für ein Dokument der "Zurückhaltung", da trotz der erneuten Betonung der Rivalität zu anderen Großmächten auf die Entwicklung völlig neuer Waffensysteme verzichtet werde. "The first strategic theme in the 2018 NPR is the return to great power rivalry. (...) The second strategic theme in the 2018 NPR is its signaling dimension. It says to other major rivals like Russia and China, 'We see what you’re doing: breaking the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF Treaty), a doctrine for tactical nuclear weapons, fielding an autonomous nuclear torpedo with a high yield warhead. And we will respond. But the US has no interest in restarting a nuclear arms race beyond repairing the problems your actions have created.' (...) This signaling by the United States conveys both action and restraint. The action part is made up of proposals for a replacement ICBM, bomber, smaller warhead for the D-5 and replacement submarines, and modern command and control. However, there is also restraint. There is no mention in the Review of new weapons or new capabilities. (...) The omission of new improved weapons is like the Sherlock Holmes story of the dog not barking (Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, Silver Blaze). It’s a sign of what the United States could do, but has chosen not to do up to this point in time."

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"ISIS Recruiting: It’s Not (Just) Ideological"

Die erfolgreiche Anwerbung neuer Anhänger durch Rekrutierer des "Islamischen Staates" sei nicht nur auf deren technologische Expertise, sondern auch auf die Anwendung von Techniken zurückzuführen, die westlichen Geheimdienstexperten durchaus vertraut wären, stellen Dounia Bouzar und Carol Rollie Flynn in ihrer Analyse für das Foreign Policy Research Institute fest. "The objective of this article is to share current reflections on how jihadist recruiters have begun to study the profiles of their prey so as to better adapt the jihadist ideology to their different emotional, social, and political aspirations. Just as criminology has established that crime is the final outcome of a psychological process that is composed of a series of stages that may be detected, we wish to study the jihadist engagement process so as to better detect instances of such processes. The interviews with the radicalized individuals demonstrate that jihadist recruiters leverage relational, emotional, and ideological dimensions in their recruiting. This strategy is ideally tailored for the young age demographic as people at this age typically search for an ideal, a group to which to belong, and the experiencing of strong emotions."

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"Announcing the Black Sea Initiative at FPRI"

Das Foreign Policy Research Institute weist auf eine neue Forschungsinitiative hin, in der die sicherheitspolitischen Probleme der erweiterten Schwarzmeerregion analysiert werden sollen. "The shock-waves of the Ukraine crisis are still being felt across the Black Sea region, from Moldova to Georgia to Ukraine itself, not only militarily but also on the economic and energy fronts. Furthermore, the region remains volatile as conflicts from Transnistria to Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Nagorno-Karabakh continue to smolder. To tackle the challenges of the greater Black Sea region, the United States needs an approach that takes into account the dynamics and complexities of both the entire region as a whole and each individual country. Through the Black Sea Initiative, FPRI aims to affect policy via cutting-edge research, publications, and public events. We are particularly interested in providing a platform for analysts from the Black Sea region in order to expand the voice that experts from these countries have in Washington and in American public debate more broadly."

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"Why the Black Sea?"

Chris Miller erklärt, warum das Schwarze Meer aus geopolitischer Sicht als zusammenhängende Region analysiert werden sollte. "The geography of the Black Sea matters not only because the region is increasingly at the center of the United States’ foreign policy, but we continue to wrongly see the region as divided into unconnected chunks. Beyond geographic proximity and historical connections, however, there are three main reasons to look at the Black Sea as a coherent region, rather than merely as a medium-sized body of water: security, energy, and European and Eurasian integration. (...) Rarely has a region figured so prominently in American foreign policy without our even realizing it. We treat Turkey as separate from Ukraine, Romania as wholly distinct from Georgia, and Russia as an aggressive 'lone wolf' in the region. These are different countries, of course, with diverse historical traditions and political structures. But from security to energy to the future of Europe, the Black Sea operates as a united region far more than Americans usually realize. We underestimate regional connections and fail to understand the linkages that drive regional politics."

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"The False Promise of Drone Strikes? Ease vs. Effectiveness"

Thomas J. Shattuck hält die Strategie, die im geheimen amerikanischen Drohnenkrieg gegen mutmaßliche Extremisten verfolgt wird, für verfehlt. Terrororganisationen wie die Al-Qaida könnten nicht durch die gezielte Tötung ihrer Führungsmitglieder zerstört werden. "It has survived 15 years of strikes and in the unlikely event that the next administration changes course away from reliance on drone strikes, al Qaeda will continue to operate across the Middle East and orchestrate attacks. The U.S. should not necessarily abandon the use of signature strikes, but increasing restraint is needed. Killing leaders has not been successful, so come January 2017 when the next administration takes office, one of its first priorities should be to evaluate the failure of drones under the Bush and Obama administrations. Such an evaluation would help to determine if scaling back of drone use is required or if drones should be used in a support role before and after ground engagements. Conducting drone strikes is the safest way to attack an enemy, but it has proven not to be most the effective."

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"Two-and-a-Half Years After ISIS’s Rise: Global Jihad Spreads And Morphs"

Clint Watts gibt einen Überblick über die Entwicklung und globale Ausbreitung radikalislamischer Terrorgruppen seit dem Aufstieg des "Islamischen Staates" vor über zwei Jahren. "The jihadi landscape, in only three years, has transformed from the unipolar world of al Qaeda to a bipolar competition between the al Qaeda and Islamic State networks to a multipolar jihadi ecosystem with dozens of groups holding varying degrees of allegiance and affinity for their extremist forefathers. Al Qaeda and the Islamic State now represent two big players in a sea of militancy filled with many competing currents. As seen in Figure 10 below, the world of jihad has never been so vast, dispersed, and diluted."

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"Islamists and Autocrats: What the Next Administration Needs to Know about Egypt"

Das Foreign Policy Research Institute hat ein eBook von Aaron Rock-Singer ins Netz gestellt, in dem der Historiker und Islamexperte die Hintergründe der aktuellen politischen Situation in Ägypten analysiert. "This Philadelphia Paper will shed light on the future of religion, politics, and radicalization in Egypt and beyond by tracing the historical and contemporary relationship between the Muslim Brotherhood, Salafis, and the post-1952 military regime. It will then turn to the post-2013 period of ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi’s rule, first as the head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and then as President of Egypt. While previous studies of the state’s religious role have analyzed the importance of al-Azhar university as a symbol of state-sponsored religious moderation, this study will move beyond al-Azhar’s elite pronouncements. Instead, it will focus on the Ministry of Endowments (MOE), a sprawling body within the state which controls tens of thousands of mosques, dictating the contents of the Friday sermon, deciding who preaches, and excluding those Muslim Brothers and Salafis who challenge its monopoly on religion."

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"Lithuania Reinstates Conscription: Implications on Security, National Identity, and Gender Roles"

Agne Cepinskyte berichtet über die Hintergründe der Entscheidung Litauens zur Wiedereinführung der Wehrpflicht. "The Russian-Ukrainian conflict, heightened tension between Russia and the West, Baltic airspace and maritime incursions by the Russian military, espionage incidents, and other provocations amplified fears that Lithuania could be the next target of the Kremlin. As a result, in the recent years, threats emanating from Russia have dominated the State Security Department’s annual reports on the 'Assessment of Threats to National Security'. Lithuanians chose to take measures such as reintroducing conscription to send a signal to the Kremlin."

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"By Love, Money, or Violence: The Struggle for Primacy in the Black Sea"

Die aktuellen Spannungen zwischen der NATO, der EU, Russland und der Türkei seien auch im Schwarzen Meer spürbar, schreibt John R. Haines in diesem Bericht für das Foreign Policy Research Institute. "Dominated by different hegemonic powers throughout history, the Black Sea basin has been called the backyard of the Ottoman Empire, as an extension of the Soviet zone of influence, as the frontier of Europe, and as an extension of the Mediterranean world. Today it is the locus of three power blocs — Russia, the European Union, and NATO — and potential fourth as an increasingly assertive Turkey leverages its traditional balancer role in the region. Ashore, landlocked Moldova — sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, and the uneasy home to two autonomous enclaves, Russia-dominated Transdniestria and ethnic Turkic Gagauzia — in many ways exemplifies the region's volatile geopolitical climate. As Özgür Özdamar concluded in 2010, 'After two decades of political and economic transition, the Black Sea region seems as unstable and insecure as before. In fact, the so-called 'frozen conflicts' proved to be 'not frozen' and pose the risk of turning into both interstate and intrastate wars.'"

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"Getting Serious about North Africa"

Der marokkanische Publizist Ahmed Charai stellt fest, dass viele Verantwortliche für Terrorpläne in Europa und den USA aus Nordafrika stammen. Die Region sei dabei, für die Terroristen der Al-Qaida und des "Islamischen Staates" zum neuen Afghanistan zu werden. Nur Marokko sei offenbar in der Lage, sich dieser Entwicklung aus eigenen Kräften entgegen zu stellen. "Admittedly, to hold out Morocco as an example for other North African countries is problematic: In enacting constitutional reforms and investing in the Moroccan south, King Mohammed VI has been drawing on a legitimacy born of centuries and a network of strong foreign alliances cultivated over decades. Both the needs and the capacities of other countries in the area are more basic, as well as more dire. Their war-weary leaderships and populations are far from self-reliant, requiring significant assistance in order to establish a semblance of stability. Accordingly, they urgently need the United States to champion their development, the forging of social and political reforms, and the investment necessary for economic growth."

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"A Method to the Madness: The Logic of Russia's Syrian Counterinsurgency Strategy"

John R. Haines schreibt, dass Offizielle der US-Regierung wie Geheimdienstdirektor James Clapper keine langfristige Strategie in der russischen Militärintervention in Syrien erkennen können. Putin sei impulsiv und opportunistisch, seine Entscheidungen seien von kurzfristiger und taktischer Natur, so Clapper. Haines glaubt dagegen, dass Russland einen langfristig angelegten Plan verfolgt, der u.a. die Lehren des russischen Tschetschenienkrieges beherzigt. "Russia’s Syrian strategy derives from its understanding of non-linear warfare. It does not set out to retake Syrian national territory in its entirety. Rather, it pursues the twinned endpoints of a secure Alawi enclave in western Syria — one, like South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transdniestria, it can control through dependence upon Russian patronage — and finding Syrian Kadyrovtsy among the region’s Kurdish clans to secure the area along Syria’s northern border with Turkey. (...) Whether Russia’s counterinsurgency strategy can succeed in the Syrian battlespace remains to be seen, but irrespective it is preposterous to suggest Russia is guided solely by impulsive opportunism."

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"Can the Islamic State hijack September 11 from Zawahiri’s al Qaeda?"

Clint Watts schreibt, dass der "Islamische Staat" in seiner fortschreitenden Verdrängung der Al-Qaida dabei sei, Symbole, Persönlichkeiten und frühere "Erfolge" der Terrororganisation für sich zu beanspruchen. Selbst die Anschläge des 11. Septembers 2001 könnten zum Ziel eines derartigen "Übernahmeversuchs" werden. "The Islamic State might do this in two ways. The least demanding and least effective way for the Islamic State to take ownership of the September 11 attacks would be online. Through smoking Twin Towers laden motifs and pushed hashtags, the Islamic State could pay homage to 9/11, positioning themselves as the preferred successors of Bin Laden’s al Qaeda rather than al-Zawahiri’s current contingent. (...) The more effective method for the Islamic State to hijack the memory of 9/11 from al-Zawahiri would be to do what al Qaeda has repeatedly failed to do: perpetrate an anniversary attack on September 11, 2015."

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"America and Its Allies in the Middle East: Bungling Toward Strategic Cooperation"

Tally Helfont hat die Entwicklung der amerikanischen Bündnispolitik im Nahen Osten seit dem 11. September 2001 in einer interaktiven Infografik aufgearbeitet und zieht dabei ein gemischtes Fazit. "While the empowerment of Iran is likely the most dominant negative consequence to emerge from America's activist foray into the region, the galvanizing of a strong pro-Western geopolitical alliance bloc poised to confront Iran and other subversive actors in the region is surely its most positive consequence. As this article will demonstrate, the ability of the United States to capitalize on opportunities created by the latter development have improved its strategic position in the region, and its maneuverability within it beyond what many have acknowledged."

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"A Quick Guide to the Foreign Policy Views of the Democratic Presidential Candidates"

Nachdem Brandon George Whitehill in einem früheren Beitrag die außenpolitischen Ansichten der republikanischen Präsidentschaftskandidaten vorgestellt hat, widmet er sich hier den Kandidaten der US-Demokraten. "As of this writing, five Democrats are running for their party’s nomination for President of the United States: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, Martin O’Malley, and Lincoln Chafee. (...) Among the Democrats, Webb, Sanders, O’Malley, and Chafee opposed the 2003 Iraq War from the beginning (initially supported by Clinton) and the 2011 intervention in Libya (supported vigorously by then-Secretary Clinton). Webb stands alone in his opposition to the current deal with Iran. Sanders opposed the Gulf War in 1991 in which the US and its allies ousted Iraq from Kuwait; he also opposed Obama’s troop surge in Afghanistan in 2009."

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"A Quick Guide to the Foreign Policy Views of the Republican Presidential Candidates"

Brandon George Whitehill mit einem Überblick über die außenpolitischen Ansichten der republikanischen Präsidentschaftskandidaten, die Barack Obama im kommenden Jahr ablösen wollen. "As of this writing, sixteen candidates are formally running for the nomination of the Republican Party for the presidency of the United States. Our purpose here is modest: to report on the foreign policy views of all the candidates, showing where they agree and where they disagree on a selection of issues. On each issue, there seems to be one or two outliers among the candidates but the interesting thing is that the identities of the outliers are different on different issues. The purpose here is not to disparage or praise any one candidate, though sometimes it is hard not to notice an outright error of fact."

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"The Best of FPRI's Essays on Democratic Transitions"

Das Foreign Policy Research Institute hat eine Reihe von Beiträgen des Project on Democratic Transitions in einem eBook im pdf-Format zur Verfügung gestellt. "In sharp contrast with the prior 15 years, the past decade has produced disappointed hopes and, in several countries, significant regression. This is true not only in the post-communist region but also in the Arab world and elsewhere. Based on these developments, one might even ask whether the Project should focus on authoritarian regression and the failures of democracy promotion abroad instead of 'democratic transitions.' Certainly, the global picture today is far less rosy than in the 1990s. Yet, viewed in the longer sweep of history, the post-communist transitions of the past 25 years represent a significant net progression."

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"Azerbaijan: Where Geopolitics Perpetually Trumps Democratization"

Christine Philippe-Blumauer stellt in ihrer Analyse der politischen Entwicklung in Aserbaidschan fest, dass das Land von Experten trotz seiner offensichtlichen Modernisierung der letzten Jahre als "konsolidierte Autokratie" betrachtet werde. "Three factors may explain the country’s failure or, more precisely, the local elite’s unwillingness to allow democratization in Azerbaijan. Firstly, while linkages to democratic countries and institutions exist, linkages to authoritarian neighbors are just as extensive; notably to Russia, which may provide inspiration to Azerbaijani rulers. Secondly, the ongoing conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh nurtures a very strong nationalistic sentiment in Azerbaijan. (...) Thirdly, and more importantly for the purpose of this the argument made here, the country benefits from a pivotal geographical position at the crossroads between Central Asia and Europe."

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"Why Ukraine Struggles to Reform"

Chris Miller schreibt, dass die ukrainische Regierung bereits einige wichtige wirtschaftspolitische Reformen auf den Weg gebracht habe. Diese hätten langfristig aber nur Bestand, wenn sie von demokratischen Reformen begleitet werden. "If Ukraine is to cut corruption, improve the effectiveness of its bureaucracy, and jettison its current feudal structure and become a modern European state, it needs to actually establish an effective democracy. Ukraine now holds free and fair elections, but the structure of its political system means that these elections have limited relation to government policy or bureaucratic decision making. There are three main problems — oligarchs, media, and election funding — none of which the Ukrainian government has yet seriously addressed."

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"Germany in the 21st Century, Part III: Who is a German?"

Im dritten Teil seiner Artikelreihe über das heutige Deutschland beschäftigt sich David J. Danelo mit der deutschen Einwanderungs- und Flüchtlingsdebatte. "What has made Germany the continent’s prime migrant destination? Liberal asylum laws? Lingering guilt for the continental refugee crisis following both world wars? A relative absence of a colonial legacy? Prospective economic opportunity? Or the evolving experience West and East Germans have with integrating a generation of Turkish migrant workers? Over twenty-five years of slow, deliberate reunification, some combination of all these variables have shaped Germany’s migration policies. Second only to Sweden, Germany’s asylum and refugee laws are the most liberal in Europe."

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"Germany in the 21st Century, Part II: The View from the Netherlands"

David Danelo beschäftigt sich im zweiten Teil einer dreiteiligen Artikelreihe mit der niederländischen Perspektive auf die heutige Machtposition Deutschlands. "Beyond sharing the same mindset, interests, and values — traits that have endured, in varying degrees, throughout the history of Dutch-German relations — the Dutch believe Germany grew to power as a collaborative unifier rather than a belligerent authority. Having struggled stoically through reunification in the 1990s, the Dutch culture affirms a working class sensibility that the German heartland shares. Beneath the platitudes of shared interests, it is the view that Germany achieved power in Europe through simple, determined hard work that enables the Netherlands citizens to affirm German continental primacy."

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"Bundeswehr 2.0: A German Military for a New Normal"

Felix K. Chang schreibt, dass sich Deutschland angesichts der Konfrontation mit Russland entschließen könnte, die eigene Verteidigung und damit die Bundeswehr neu zu stärken. Er geht davon aus, dass die Bundeswehr weiterhin grundsätzlich defensiv ausgerichtet sein wird. "(...) what kind of Bundeswehr is needed? Surely, it must be one that is consistent with Germany’s vision of itself, if Germans are ever to embrace it. It should be tailored for a mission that most German citizens can agree is in Germany’s national interest, such as the security of Central Europe. It should also be one that can meaningfully contribute to NATO’s collective defense, but does not put its neighbors ill at ease. As such, one could envision a Bundeswehr that is designed — through its armaments and force structure — to be fundamentally defensive, yet still beneficial to NATO."

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"Ukraine: The Violent Contraries"

John R. Haines analysiert in seinem Beitrag die politischen Ziele der Konfliktparteien in der Ostukraine. "Russia (and most Ukrainians) seem convinced the United States and its allies will not resort to direct military force to defend Ukraine: sanctions notwithstanding, Putin's Russia is, after all, no Yugoslavia, Iraq or Libya. In Russia's view, the demand for Russian natural gas will trump western Europe's appetite for sanctions, especially if Russia as rumored is entertaining asymmetric economic responses of its own, like the use of gold as a monetary asset. Since the onset of conflict in eastern Ukraine, which began as a local war of occupation, none of the parties — none — were willing to accede to the rules that governed the Cold War. The consequence has been to turn the conflict in eastern Ukraine into a disaster, the scale of which is difficult to predict. While suggesting no equivalency in their positions or standing in the conflict, the United States and Russia seem to share one thing in common: each in its own way seems at a loss as to what it wants, and that for the people of eastern Ukraine that may be the most terrible thing."

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Europa, Asien, Afrika, Amerika und weltweite Phänomene und Institutionen. Die bpb bietet ein breites Angebot zu internationalen Themen.

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Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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Publikationen zum Thema

Coverbild Internationale Sicherheit im 21. Jahrhundert

Internationale Sicherheit im 21. Jahrhundert

Die internationale Sicherheit ist fragil und bedroht. Wie können und müssen demokratische Systeme ...

Internationale Sicherheitspolitik Cover

Internationale Sicherheitspolitik

Seit Ende des Ost-West-Konflikts hat sich die internationale Sicherheitspolitik deutlich verändert....

Das Herz verlässt keinen Ort, an dem es hängt

Das Herz verlässt keinen Ort, an dem es hängt

16 Autor*innen aus Krisengebieten wünschen sich für ihre Zukunft weiterschreiben zu können. In di...

Sicherheitspolitik verstehen

Sicherheitspolitik verstehen

Wie sieht eine zeitgemäße Sicherheitspolitik angesichts einer zunehmend komplexer werdenden und st...

Am Hindukusch – und weiter?

Am Hindukusch – und weiter?

Ende 2014 zogen die letzten deutschen ISAF-Truppen aus Afghanistan ab. Dieser Band zieht Bilanz, fra...

Fluter Terror


Terrorismus bedroht die offene Gesellschaft und die kulturelle Vielfalt. Er ist uns fremd, aber er k...

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