US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Carnegie Europe


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"Europe Needs a Regional Strategy on Iran"

Um eine eigenständige Iran-Strategie zu entwickeln, sollte die EU die acht Golfstaaten aktiv einbeziehen, so die Empfehlung des Politikberaters Cornelius Adebahr. "Despite being barely alive, the 2015 international nuclear deal with Iran offers a good starting point. The Europeans should regionalize some of the agreement’s basic provisions to include the nuclear newcomers on the Arab side of the Gulf. Doing so would advance a nonproliferation agenda that is aimed not at a single country but at the region’s broader interests. Similarly, the Europeans should engage Iran, Iraq, and the six Arab nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council in talks about regional security. Rather than suggesting an all-encompassing security framework, for which the time is not yet ripe, they should pursue a step-by-step approach aimed at codifying internationally recognized principles at the regional level."

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"Libya Needs European Boots on the Ground"

Die EU sollte die "strategische Gelegenheit" der Corona-Pandemie nutzen, um in Libyen die Initiative zu ergreifen und den Einfluss Russlands und der Türkei zurückzudrängen, meint Stefano Marcuzzi von Carnegie Europe. Dazu müsse auch die Entsendung europäischer Soldaten gehören. "The EU’s Libya policy, characterized by a light-footprint approach and humanitarian aid, has been eclipsed by hard power. Now, however, there is a new window of opportunity for EU action. The global pandemic and the closing of borders is likely to diminish the ability of external sponsors to substantially reinforce their Libyan proxies, at least for a few months. (…) The EU needs to seize the chance for new negotiations — this time, however, supporting them with some teeth. (…) A monitoring mechanism of the internationally approved ceasefire is needed, with punitive measures for the violators. This can only be done if the EU finally decides to do what should have been done in the immediate aftermath of Qaddafi’s fall: deploy some forces on the ground to prevent further escalations."

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"Where in the World Is the EU Now?"

Stefan Lehne und Francesco Siccardi mit einer analytischen Bestandsaufnahme der außenpolitischen Entwicklung der EU in den vergangenen zehn Jahren. "Analysis of the EU’s use of external policy instruments confirms that the union is a global actor in some respects, such as trade policy, sanctions, and assistance, but that it focuses its engagement mainly on neighboring regions. This regional bias also applies to the indicators of the EU’s attention to international developments: visits, declarations, and council conclusions. Yet in recent years, the union has shown an increased interest in sub-Saharan Africa and, to a more limited extent, other parts of the world. The comparison between the second Barroso commission and the Juncker commission indicates that the EU’s overall level of engagement with the outside world has remained roughly the same. In general, the union’s regional and global reach did not grow significantly between 2014 and 2019. At a time when Europe’s weight on the global scales was diminishing and its neighborhood was troubled by multiple crises, the EU and its member states were not able or willing to invest significantly more in their common foreign policy."

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"Macron’s One-Way Street to Russia"

Judy Dempsey hält nicht viel von den Bemühungen des französischen Präsidenten, einen europäischen "Reset" der Beziehungen zu Russland durchzusetzen. Macron vernachlässige die europäischen Werte und sei bereit, Moskau ohne russische Zugeständnisse entgegenzukommen, so Dempseys Vorwurf. "Macron’s overtures to Russia, however, are a one-way street for several reasons. First, he has never spelled out the conditions for such a strategic partnership between Russia and Europe. The EU is supposed to place much emphasis on values, but human rights, media freedom, intimidation of investigative journalists, attacks on the rule of law, and the territorial integrity of countries are not part of Macron’s 'conversation' about Russia. (…) This suggests that Macron’s overtures to Russia are based not on values but on interests. But even the latter doesn’t add up. What Russia is doing in Ukraine and Syria is against Europe’s interests. And even if his overtures are based on realpolitik, Macron can only win support from other Europeans if Moscow were to give something in return. And so far, it won’t. Macron’s way is a cul-de-sac."

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"Judy Asks: Can the West Regain Its Influence?"

Judy Dempsey hat Teilnehmer der diesjährigen Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz gefragt, ob es dem Westen gelingen könne, seinen globalen Einfluss wiederzuerlangen. Der Politikwissenschaftler Michael Barnett von der George Washington University hält dies für ausgeschlossen: "No. Not if by the West we mean the select group of privileged states that ruled the world mainly for its own benefit, but with some sense that others should benefit, too. The West’s influence was partially dependent on its material wealth and its moral purpose, both of which are in decline, and so the West has ceased to be the soft power that it once was. The West’s (United States’) form of economic organization no longer appeals, and it has demonstrated little of the moral backbone that once defined it. Western influence was not only about power over but also about power to, and the West no longer knows what the to is and the rest no longer buy what the West is selling."

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"How Far Can Turkey Challenge NATO and the EU in 2020?"

NATO und EU müssen einer nationalistischer auftretenden Türkei entschlossen, aber auch kooperationsbereit gegenübertreten, meint Marc Pierini. "Turkey’s international posture has radically changed over the last few years. It is a function of a) Erdoğan’s international ambitions and political decline, b) a rising nationalist sentiment among a large segment of the population, c) Donald Trump’s unexpected support, and d) Vladimir Putin’s strategic maneuvering. This 'New Turkey' challenges the Eastern Mediterranean maritime boundaries and drilling rights and is prone to project military force abroad while substantially reinforcing its army’s equipment. While every country is free to choose its own destiny, seen from Brussels, Turkey’s posture of challenging both NATO and the EU runs counter to its membership of the transatlantic alliance. (…) Relations with Turkey may become one of the litmus tests for the EU’s foreign policy in 2020. In the words of [EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell], 'We see the rebirth of geostrategic competition. (…) The EU has the option of becoming a player, a true geostrategic actor, or being mostly the playground. (…) We need to speak more the language of power, not to conquer but to contribute to a more peaceful, prosperous and just world.'"

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"Europe’s Dangerous Irrelevance in Washington and the Middle East"

Judy Dempsey wirft den Europäern vor, in der aktuellen Iran-Krise erneut die Rolle der "unglückseligen Zuschauer" einzunehmen und sich auf rhetorisches Händeringen und ritualisierte Appelle zu beschränken. "(…) the potential conflagration unfolding in front of their eyes is symptomatic of a much more profound malaise, and its consequences will either shake Europe out of its strategic helplessness or reduce it to a mere object of external influences, benign or destructive. First of all, it is symptomatic of the profound crisis in the transatlantic relationship. It’s not just about Trump’s views on NATO. His predecessors were scathing about the military competence of the alliance’s European members. It’s about how the Europeans, collectively grouped in the European Union, don’t seem to matter to this American administration."

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"Judy Asks: Is NATO Brain-dead?"

Judy Dempsey von Carnegie Europe hat eine Reihe von Sicherheitsexperten gefragt, was sie von der harschen NATO-Kritik des französischen Präsidenten halten. Die Mehrzahl der Fachleute hält die Kritik für übertrieben. Nach Ansicht von Ulrich Speck vom German Marshall Fund of the United States ist auch die von Macron geforderte strategische Neuorientierung des Bündnisses unnötig. "We have a broad agreement in the transatlantic alliance to deter Russia and defend NATO territory, especially on its eastern flank. The debates taking place were operational. There is no need for a broad strategic debate, because there is an agreement between NATO countries about the mission."

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"Judy Asks: Is Macron Europe’s New Foreign Policy Leader?"

Judy Dempsey von Carnegie Europe hat einer Reihe von Experten die Frage gestellt, ob Frankreichs Präsident Macron heute als außenpolitischer Anführer Europas betrachtet werden könne. Viele der Befragten seien der Ansicht, dass Macron die neue Führungsrolle vor allem aus Mangel an Alternativen zufalle. Ob er die Rolle ausfüllen könne, bleibe allerdings offen. So schreibt der frühere Labour-Politiker Denis MacShane: "It is not that Macron is deciding EU foreign policy, but he seems to be the only EU leader with any ideas on foreign policy at all. Angela Merkel has shrunk back into curating a weakening German economy and society. German foreign policy from 1946 to 2016 was to hug America close. Trump has killed that. Brexit Britain has given up geopolitics. Italy and Spain are consumed by domestic politics. Poland can only think Russia. So that leaves Macron. He cozies up to Putin, he tells the Western Balkans they will have to wait years before joining Europe, he denounces the 'hydra of Islamist terrorism,' and demands tough action on immigration. But is this foreign or domestic policy?"

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"How Has Europe’s View of the People’s Republic of China Changed?"

Judy Dempsey von Carnegie Europe hat eine Reihe von Beiträgen zusammengestellt, die sich anlässlich des 70. Jahrestages der Gründung der Volksrepublik China mit der Entwicklung der wechselhaften europäischen China-Politik auseinandersetzen. "Europe’s view of China has shifted from benign curiosity to the realization that Beijing is a major global competitor, which is changing the post-1945 global security and economic architecture designed by the West. (...) the EU has realized that it needs a serious strategic partnership with Beijing to match the country’s muscular global ambitions. China has evolved from a manufacturer of cheap goods to a powerful economic and political competitor. The EU’s founding principles of democracy and civil liberties contrast starkly with China’s one-party system, and its use of AI and cyber security tools. A major analysis published by the European Commission in March 2019 stated that China’s 'increasing presence in the world, including in Europe, should be accompanied by greater responsibilities for upholding the rules-based international order, as well as greater reciprocity, non-discrimination and openness of its system.' Yet the EU’s tools are limited. And when it comes to the issue of the South China Sea, crucial to Europe’s economy, the EU ducks the security question. Europe is trying to develop a strategy to project its values and system toward China. But the power balance has shifted — for China, Europe may now be just a curiosity to be exploited."

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"Can Ursula Von Der Leyen Save the Transatlantic Relationship?"

Judy Dempsey erhofft sich von der möglichen EU-Kommissionspräsidentin Ursula von der Leyen eine Wiederbelebung des Verhältnisses der EU zu den USA. "Unlike the incumbent Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, she is a committed Atlanticist. She doesn’t buy into the anti-American rhetoric that Europe has to take care of its own security and defense. And von der Leyen knows that as long as NATO’s European allies refuse to spend more on defense, they will have no influence in Washington. Von der Leyen’s support for NATO and a Europe committed to more burden-sharing will serve her well in Washington. (...) Her support for the alliance is bolstered by her record as defense minister, when she lobbied hard for increased German defense spending despite strong resistance from politicians and voters. She ultimately managed to persuade Merkel to boost spending — which should give her far greater credibility when it comes to dealing with the United States."

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"The Caucasus: No Longer Just Russia’s Neighborhood"

Den früheren Sowjetrepubliken Armenien, Aserbaidschan und Georgien ist es Thomas de Waal zufolge in den letzten Jahren gelungen, eine eigenständige Strategie gegenüber Russland zu verfolgen, ohne den mächtigen Nachbarn vor den Kopf zu stoßen. "Russia itself is still the most powerful neighbor for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, but increasingly it is one of many. Journalists should stop calling these countries 'Russia’s neighborhood,' let alone its 'backyard.' The South Caucasus is a region of its own. If it is a neighborhood, it is simultaneously many at once: not just Russia’s, but that of the European Union’s and (once again) Iran’s and Turkey’s. The United States is there — an international consortium, including two U.S. companies, has begun building a deep-water port at Anaklia on Georgia’s Black Sea coast. And China, which sees the region as a transit route for the Belt and Road Initiative, is now a major trading partner. (...) The developing 'post-Russian' identity in the South Caucasus is not much consolation to Ukraine, which remains uniquely vulnerable to Russia, even as it struggles with its own new identity formation. What it shows is that each of the three South Caucasian countries has found a way to manage its relationship with Russia."

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"Judy Asks: Is the EU Putting Stabilization Before Human Rights?"

Judy Dempsey hat einigen Experten die Frage gestellt, ob die EU in ihrer Außenpolitik tatsächlich eher auf Stabilität als auf die Durchsetzung von Menschenrechten setze. In den Antworten wird dies mehr oder weniger einhellig bestätigt, wobei die Bewertung dieser Gewichtung durchaus unterschiedlich ausfällt. So meint Pierre Vimont von Carnegie Europe: "The European Union is slowly learning geopolitics. (...) There is no point in freezing all contact with unpalatable partners to the risk of being deprived of any leverage. Diplomacy is about discussing — even with unfriendly partners — to avoid being sidelined. Does this recognition imply a new cynical touch for Europe’s foreign policy with its values left in oblivion? It rather sets a new course for the defense of European values with less public lecturing and more concrete action on individual cases of human rights violations, less posturing, and more result. The choice is not between stability and principles as there is no option there: both are necessary. It is about finding the right balance between these two indispensable components of any decent and effective diplomacy."

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"Macron, the Atlanticist"

In seiner Rede zur Zukunft der EU am 26. September habe der französische Präsident Emmanuel Macron die Vision einer europäischen Verteidigungspolitik präsentiert, die sich zur Erleichterung vieler Transatlantiker nicht gegen die NATO richten soll, schreibt Tomáš Valášek. "All three of his new defense proposals — the headline-grabbing EU 'intervention force,' the call for an EU defense budget, and the plea for EU nationals to be free to serve in any member state’s armed forces — appear calibrated to send European hearts racing while avoiding a theological dispute with NATO. (...) The use of the word 'intervention' is noteworthy as it appears to clarify that the proposed joint EU force would operate beyond EU and NATO borders. (...) Notably, Macron has also omitted the call for 'strategic' autonomy for Europe; choosing instead to emphasize the need for 'operational' autonomy. (...) The EU and NATO will continue to disagree on issues, such as defense industrial policy, or the need for separate reviews of member states’ defense capabilities. But these are manageable differences, even if important. A truce on the bigger issue of who guarantees Europe’s defense will come as a relief."

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"The Anglo-German Addiction to American Defense"

Daniel Keohane bezweifelt, dass sich Deutschland und Großbritannien aus ihrer sicherheitspolitischen Abhängigkeit von den USA lösen können. Dies habe finanzielle, geopolitische, aber auch psychologische Gründe. "For different reasons, Germany and the UK will likely remain addicted to U.S. defense. The alternatives are currently too daunting for Berlin and London. Germany cannot imagine itself as Europe’s leading military power, while the Brexit-bound UK appears to have no geopolitical options other than aligning itself ever more closely with the United States. (...) Anti-Trumpism alone will not convince Europeans to go their own way on defense. For one, most Europeans expect their relations with the United States to remain stable, according to a June 2017 Pew opinion poll, which suggests that Europeans still prefer to stick with the devil they know. For another, most Europeans are nowhere near psychologically prepared to defend themselves without U.S. protection."

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"Will Europe Follow Trump on Migration?"

Nach dem erneuten Einreiseverbot der US-Regierung für Bürger bestimmter muslimischer Staaten macht Stefan Lehne darauf aufmerksam, dass auch in vielen europäischen Ländern immer restriktivere Einreise- und Asylbestimmungen erlassen werden. "If current trends continue, Europe might well follow Trump’s anti-immigration line. However, in the world’s most successful immigration society, Trump’s policies are likely to be a temporary aberration. The United States is better at integrating migrants and better positioned to control who comes in. In Europe, xenophobia and Islamophobia pose far greater risks. They might destabilize societies that already have large, insufficiently integrated minority communities. They will hamper efforts to stabilize Europe’s turbulent neighborhood. And they might put the survival of the European Union at risk."

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"What Do Ukrainians Actually Think?"

Gwendolyn Sasse stellt die Ergebnisse einer neuen Umfrage vor, in der Ukrainer nach ihrer Meinung zur politischen Entwicklung ihres Landes befragt wurden. "According to a poll conducted jointly by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Center and publicized in early January, only 3 percent of Ukrainians think that the overall situation in Ukraine has improved. Moreover, these improvements are mostly associated with the country’s national defense capabilities. (...) Continuing a long-lasting trend, this poll confirms that not a single Ukrainian politician or political institution can count on citizens’ trust. (...) Too few people outside Ukraine take note of the mood in the country."

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"Kaliningrad and the Escalatory Spiral in the Baltics"

Andrew A. Michta vom George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies warnt vor einer Spirale der militärischen Eskalation im Baltikum und insbesondere in der russischen Exklave Kaliningrad. Angesichts der aktuellen Spannungen käme eine neue strategische Kooperation zwischen Russland und dem Westen kaum in Frage, es sollten aber konkrete Absprachen getroffen werden, um eine Deeskalation zu erreichen. "As in the Cold War years, the West needs to look for points where its interests correspond with Russia’s, and finding a path to de-escalation in the Baltics is one of the items on which Western and Russian interests coalesce. It is premature to talk about a larger U.S.-Russian strategy, and the West should not waste its time and energy on another reset that would allegedly solve it all. Rather, engagement on the concrete matter of the escalatory spiral in Kaliningrad and the Baltics, where both sides are deeply invested, should be a starting point for a frank discussion with Russia. The aim should be to find a solution to a risk level that has become unacceptably high."

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"The Line in the Sand: Finland and the Unpredictable Neighbor"

Der frühere finnische Botschafter in Berlin und Moskau René Nyberg erläutert die Hintergründe der Sicherheitsdebatte in Schweden und Finnland seit dem Ausbruch der Ukrainekrise. Im Zentrum der Diskussionen in beiden Ländern ständen die Beziehungen zu Russland und eine mögliche NATO-Mitgliedschaft. "The fundamental differences between Finland and Sweden may be illustrated by the two I’s of ideology and identity. Regarding ideology, the Finnish creed is pragmatism, the antithesis of ideology. By contrast, the Swedish view of the world remains strongly influenced by former prime minister Olof Palme’s legacy and social democratic philosophy. Identity for Finns is based on survival, while Swedes see neutrality as very much a part of their national identity. The geographic locations of Finland and Sweden partly explain the differences in the tone and substance of the two countries’ ongoing debates about NATO. The Swedish debate sounds more alarmist and is dominated by activists. Anna-Lena Laurén, the Moscow correspondent for a leading Swedish daily, put it this way: 'The Swedes are more worked up than worried about the development in Russia, [while] the Finns are more worried than worked up.'"

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"The Strategic Consequences of Turkey’s Failed Coup"

Der Türkei-Experte Sinan Ülgen analysiert die strategischen Folgen des Putschversuchs gegen die türkische Regierung und erwartet, dass die Beziehungen der Türkei zur EU und zu den NATO-Partnern erheblich schwieriger werden. Auch das Flüchtlingsabkommen mit der EU sei nun noch stärker bedroht als zuvor. "(...) the post-putsch environment will reduce the government’s willingness to amend Turkey’s anti-terror framework. As a result, a diplomatic crisis by October is likely, with Turkey claiming that the EU has failed to honor its commitments. The entire refugee package, under which Turkey continues to host more than 2.8 million Syrian refugees, could then come under threat, with consequences for the flow of asylum-seekers."

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"A Call for Shared Experimentation Among Democracies"

Richard Youngs empfiehlt, bei Überlegungen zur Erneuerung der westlichen liberalen Demokratie auch auf Argumente aus nichtwestlichen Ländern zu achten. Er befragt vier Experten aus Brasilien, Südafrika, Indien bzw. der Türkei zum Thema und schreibt: "(...) it is highly questionable that a wholesale non-Western variety of democracy stands perfectly defined and ready to be implemented. Indeed, the calls for non-Western democracy exhibit many aspects that are far from convincing. Non-Western critics need to recognize that the concerns about social justice, community identity, and consensus that they frequently express as part of critiques of the Western democratic model are also present in Western debates about democratic renewal. Rather than a binary competition between Western and non-Western (or regionally specific Arab, African, or Asian) democracy, joint experimentation is needed among people in between different regions to find ways of updating the forms through which democratic accountability and representation are achieved."

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"Ukraine From Revolution of Dignity to Government of Shame"

Mikhail Minakov, Professor für Philosophie und Religion an der National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, hält das aktuelle Auftreten der politischen Elite der Ukraine für eine "nationale Schande". "In the two years since Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity, or Euromaidan, Ukrainian politics has revealed its worst side: former corruption fighters have established their own financial-political clans; former democrats have created a superpresidential system, hunted the media, and deprived the opposition from having a say; and former reformers have sought to leave the drowning government as soon as possible. The political crisis that started in February 2016 has shown Ukraine’s post-Euromaidan political elite to be a source of national shame."

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"Suspend Schengen to Rescue Europe"

Judy Dempsey meint, dass das schiere Ausmaß der Flüchtlingskrise eine zeitweise Aussetzung des Schengener Abkommens erzwinge. Angesichts der nationalen Grenzschließungen sei es realitätsfern, am Mythos der uneingeschränkten Bewegungsfreiheit festzuhalten und Griechenland als alleinigen Sündenbock für die Krise zu präsentieren. "All these failings — poor intelligence sharing, insufficient external border controls, and the lack of a proper EU-wide asylum and migration policy — have undermined Schengen. It has become a free-for-all. To tackle these failings, the Schengen Agreement should be suspended for a limited period — up to twelve months. Commuters, industry, small businesses, truck drivers, and tour operators would all complain. So they should. The inconvenience and economic costs would be high. But that might finally concentrate the minds of EU governments. The suspension of Schengen should be used during that time to address the abysmal failures of the system and the EU’s abysmal failure to cope with the refugee crisis."

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"American Absence and Franco-German Divides"

Carnegie Europe hat die diesjährige Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz mit einem Twitter-Feed verfolgt. Jan Techau fasst in diesem Beitrag seine Eindrücke vom Beginn der Konferenz zusammen. "The first observation is the striking absence of U.S.-related talk on this first day of proceedings. (...) Perhaps even more striking was the absence of any kind of discussion about the biggest piece of transatlantic news in several years, the quadrupling of U.S. defense spending in Europe that was announced by the Pentagon on February 2. (...) The second observation is how big the difference was in tone between the German and the French defense ministers’ speeches. The addresses illustrated that two years into the new German foreign policy spurred by German President Joachim Gauck’s remarks at the 2014 Munich Security Conference, the strategic culture between the two countries still could not be more different."

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"Four Predictions on the Future of Europe"

Jan Techau, Direktor von Carnegie Europe, erwartet, dass die EU aus den aktuellen Krisen deutlich verändert hervorgehen wird. "(...) my first prediction is that in the medium to long term, there will be more integration of European foreign policy, and even of security and defense. (...) My second prediction is that the euro will not be part of a future EU. The common currency is a need that does not exist. (...) Third, I foresee, after heavy pains, a more complete single market, and also a common EU approach to migration — though not to the integration of migrants, which will remain primarily a national matter. (...) Finally, the EU will be a lot more realpolitik-driven. This is where I predict I will be hammered by almost everyone. Realpolitik here means that the EU will be a union less of values and more of transactional politics. (...) Taken together, this will be a very different Europe indeed. The peoples of Europe will no longer integrate because they feel love for the idea of an integrated Europe — if ever they did. Integration will come only when the pain is really massive. And it is massive only in some policy fields, not in all."

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"Poland’s Euroskeptic Future"

Trotz der euroskeptischen Ausrichtung der neuen rechtskonservativen Regierung in Warschau erwartet Judy Dempsey nicht, dass Polen die Russlandpolitik der EU in Frage stellen wird. Die polnischen Beziehungen zu Deutschland könnten dagegen abkühlen, so Dempsey. "Apart from being Euroskeptic, Kaczyński is also very anti-Russian, unlike his Hungarian counterpart and the Czech president. He has never stopped believing that his twin brother and former Polish president, Lech, was assassinated (by Russia) when his presidential plane crashed in Smolensk, western Russia, in April 2010. (...) Another casualty could be Poland’s relationship with its neighbor Germany. The political, trade, and social ties had blossomed under Civil Platform. Kaczyński, however, has never hidden his dislike of Germany. (...) when Germany opposed NATO establishing a permanent base in Poland because Berlin didn’t want to provoke Russia (regardless of what Russia has been doing in Ukraine), Law and Justice blasted that decision. It’s a decision that Law and Justice is sure to bring up in NATO and make into an issue when Warsaw hosts the next NATO summit in 2016 — if it is not resolved before then."

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"A Promise Unfulfilled: German-U.S. Relations 25 Years After Reunification"

Jan Techau schreibt, dass die USA von der Entwicklung des wiedervereinigten Deutschlands etwas enttäuscht seien, da sich das Land 25 Jahre danach immer noch sträube, als Militärmacht aufzutreten. "With grown importance and self-confidence on Germany’s side, there is also a growing risk of the United States and Germany getting into serious disagreements on big political questions. (...) Future Republican administrations might discover that Germany, despite its current robust posture vis-à-vis Russia, will always try to steer a less antagonistic course with Moscow than they find desirable. Similar clashes could occur on issues such as China, climate change, NATO enlargement, financial regulations, and trade. In such cases, it is likely that Germany will be a tougher and more assertive counterpart. This is the price America pays for having helped Germany reunify. It remains a small price for a historic achievement."

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"Europe’s Powerlessness in the Middle East"

Judy Dempsey beklagt, dass Europa nicht nur im Nahen Osten einen "erschreckenden" Mangel an Strategie, Voraussicht und Krisenmanagement an den Tag lege. "The first is Europe’s — but also the United States’ — inability to do state building. The second is the questionable impact of hard power. The third is the fallout of wars: millions of refugees on the move, fleeing the areas of conflict. (...) if any European government believes or hopes that Russia’s bombing campaign will end the flow of refugees, they are deceiving themselves. This is the new reality that European governments will have to accept. It is questionable, however, whether Europe’s helplessness in the Middle East and its struggle to cope with refugees will make EU governments consider the miserable weaknesses of their foreign, security, and development aid policies."

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"The Puzzle of Non-Western Democracy"

Richard Youngs hat in seinem neuen Buch "The Puzzle of Non-Western Democracy" die internationale Forderung nach Demokratiemodellen, die sich vom westlichen Vorbild unterscheiden, untersucht. Er erläutert einige Prinzipien, die bei der Suche nach Alternativen zum westlichen Modell beachtet werden sollten. "Calls for different models of democracy are becoming more prominent and widespread. The future of global politics will depend greatly on whether and how democracy can be made more effective, participative, and accountable. Many politicians, diplomats, and experts today argue in favor of non-Western models of democracy. Yet it remains unclear what such models should look like. It is more useful to think in terms of specific areas of democratic variation that can encourage democratic renewal - outside, but also within, the West."

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"Letter From The Hague"

Louise van Schaik und Margriet Drent schreiben, dass der Absturz des Flugzeugs MH17 in der Ukraine vor einem Jahr eine Wende in der niederländischen Außenpolitik eingeleitet habe. Die niederländische Regierung sei heute eher bereit, auf wirtschaftlichen Nutzen zugunsten sicherheitspolitischer Ziele zu verzichten. "In sum, a new sense of realism has entered Dutch foreign policy. The current government is rather constructive when it comes to strengthening the EU’s diplomatic aspirations and policies. Citizens do not contest a larger role for the EU on foreign policy matters, whereas they are more critical of Europeanization in other areas. Nevertheless, a key issue is whether the Dutch truly believe the EU can deal with matters of high politics without the United States being involved."

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Ende 2014 zogen die letzten deutschen ISAF-Truppen aus Afghanistan ab. Dieser Band zieht Bilanz, fra...

Fluter Terror


Terrorismus bedroht die offene Gesellschaft und die kulturelle Vielfalt. Er ist uns fremd, aber er k...

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