US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

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"Iraqis Rise Against a Reviled Occupier: Iran"

In Irak stoße die Einmischung des Irans in irakische Angelegenheiten immer stärker auf öffentlichen Widerwillen, berichtet Alissa J. Rubin. Die andauernden Massenproteste gegen die Regierung richteten sich auch gegen Teherans Einfluss in Bagdad. "While the current leaders of the Iraqi government cower inside the Green Zone, where officials running the American occupation once sheltered, the protesters outside direct their anger against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which they now see as having too much influence. 'Free, free Iraq,' they shout, 'Iran get out, get out.' (…) 'The revolution is not anti-American, it is anti-Iran, it is anti-religion — anti-political religion, not religion as such,' said Saad Eskander, the former head of the Iraqi National Archives. The protesters, he said, were fed up with corruption and the Shiite militias, some of which have evolved into mafias running extortion rackets. But more than that, he added, this is 'a revolution with a social dimension. In Iraq, patriotism was always political, now it has a social justice component.' While Iran is the immediate target of the protesters’ wrath, the fight is larger than that. It is a struggle between younger Iraqis and an older, more cautious generation, between a political elite and a rising cohort that rejects their leadership."

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"Trump’s Opposition to ‘Endless Wars’ Appeals to Those Who Fought Them"

US-Präsident Trump hat den Rückzug von US-Truppen aus Syrien mit seiner grundsätzlichen Ablehnung der "endlosen Kriege" der USA begründet. Unter US-Veteranen stößt diese Position Jennifer Steinhauer zufolge auf große Zustimmung. "Nearly two decades after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, polls show that a majority of all veterans have grown disenchanted with the continuing wars, even if the national security elite in both parties continue to press for an American military presence in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. The view is in stark contrast to widespread support for the wars across the military and veterans community — and the general population — when President George W. Bush first sent American troops to Afghanistan and then Iraq. The shifting attitudes of so many who served in the wars help explain why Mr. Trump has support among veterans as he brings troops home and has resisted military action against other nations. There is a slow but steadily increasing alliance of those on the left and the right on Capitol Hill to curb what Mr. Trump calls 'endless wars.'"

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"Hundreds of U.S. Troops Leaving, and Also Arriving in, Syria"

Am Ende der aktuellen US-Truppenbewegungen in Syrien könnten fast genauso viele Soldaten vor Ort aktiv sein wie vor dem von Präsident Trump angeordneten Truppenabzug, stellen Eric Schmitt und Helene Cooper fest. "Every day in northeastern Syria, waves of American troops are pulling out under President Trump’s order this month that paved the way for a Turkish offensive that included assaults on the Pentagon’s allies, the Syrian Kurds. And at the same time, a separate wave of American troops from the opposite direction is pouring back in. In fact, once the comings and goings are done, the total number of United States forces in Syria is expected to be about 900 — close to the 1,000 troops on the ground when Mr. Trump ordered the withdrawal of American forces from the country. 'It’s damage control,' said Alexander Bick, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, who oversaw Syria issues at the National Security Council in the Obama administration."

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"How to Really Make the Death of ISIS’s Leader Bigger Than Bin Laden’s"

Nach dem Tod des IS-Anführers al-Baghdadi empfiehlt Hassan Hassan, Co-Autor des Buches "ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror", die weitere Präsenz von US-Truppen in Syrien, um in einer kritischen Phase den Druck auf die Terrormiliz aufrechtzuerhalten. "That the Islamic State can easily survive the loss of its top leader is not as straightforward a proposition as seems to be widely believed. (…) Mr. al-Baghdadi’s oversight was vital in guiding ISIS’s current transition from governing body to effective underground organization. Captured commanders have testified to Iraqi and Kurdish troops about his involvement in day-to-day affairs, and the meetings he held with different regional heads. (…) Pressure against ISIS now may not end the group — its rigid and hard-line ideology thrives amid the conflict and authoritarianism in the region. But it can change the group in the same way Al Qaeda changed after 9/11, to become locally focused and, ultimately, weaker. Since losing ground in Syria and Iraq, ISIS had already started focusing on building its regional affiliates rather than conducting attacks in the West. That trend could continue if pressure against it persists — pressure, say, in the form of continuing American presence in Syria to train local forces and detect any resurgent Islamic State activities until a robust political settlement to resolve the Syrian conflict can be reached. The alternative is unthinkable."

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"Will Democrats Become Born-Again Neocons?"

Bret Stephens meint, dass die Außenpolitik von US-Präsident Trump wie zuletzt in Syrien zu "Desastern" geführt habe. Unter den Demokraten gebe es deshalb immer mehr "wiedergeborene Neokonservative", die einen "geopolitischen Rückzug" der USA ablehnen. Allerdings sei offen, ob es sich tatsächlich um einen Politikwechsel oder um eine reflexhafte Ablehnung Trumps handle. "All of this raises the possibility — faintly — that while Trump steers the American right toward a foreign policy of retreat, appeasement, and non-intervention, liberals might rediscover their Trumanesque faith in the necessity of Pax Americana. The world quickly becomes unsafe in the absence of U.S. power and will. Ceding ground to dictators is destined to work about as well today as it did when it was last tried in the 1930s. I won’t get my hopes up yet. Trump’s foreign policy ought to be a lesson to all Americans about what a post-American world would look like."

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"From Chile to Lebanon, Protests Flare Over Wallet Issues"

In vielen Ländern breite sich eine wachsende Unzufriedenheit mit politischen, wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Zuständen aus, stellen Declan Walsh und Max Fisher fest. Im Westen führe dies zu populistischen Wahlerfolgen, in anderen Ländern zu Massenprotesten gegen die Regierung. "(…) as protest movements grow, their success rates are plunging. Only 20 years ago, 70 percent of protests demanding systemic political change achieved it — a figure that had been growing steadily since the 1950s, according to a study by Erica Chenoweth, a Harvard University political scientist. In the mid-2000s, that trend reversed. Success rates now stand at 30 percent, the study said, a decline that Professor Chenoweth called staggering. These two trends are closely linked. As protests become more frequent but likelier to flounder, they stretch on and on, becoming more contentious, more visible — and more apt to return to the streets when their demands go unmet. (…) If protests are quicker to stir and more widespread than in earlier decades, they are also more fragile. The painstaking mobilization that once was a feature of grass-roots movements was slow but durable. Protests that organize on social media can rise faster, but collapse just as quickly. Authoritarian governments have also learned to co-opt social media, using it to disseminate propaganda, rally sympathizers or simply spread confusion, Professor Chenoweth said. And even where there is a spasm of protest, it takes a lot more for it to snowball into a full opposition movement."

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"Why the Protests in Hong Kong May Have No End in Sight"

Bei der Lösung der anhaltenden politischen Krise in Hongkong wird es Keith Bradsher zufolge vor allem auf die lokalen Verbündeten Pekings ankommen. Die Unstimmigkeiten unter diesen Gruppen könnten allerdings dafür sorgen, dass der Konflikt noch lange weiterschwelen wird. "Some of Beijing’s local allies are populists who want to break up local monopolies, seize private land and build public housing. Some are tycoons who are happy to support the local government and Beijing as long as no one touches their businesses. The differences within the pro-Beijing camp are even deeper on the protesters’ biggest demand, for greater democracy. A moderate camp led by the city’s embattled chief executive, Carrie Lam, would like to see gradual progress toward freer elections, at least within Beijing’s predefined limits. The city’s hard-liners loathe the idea, and are deeply frustrated by what they perceive as Mrs. Lam’s desire to negotiate with democracy advocates and her wariness of ordering a harsher police crackdown."

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"Top Secret Russian Unit Seeks to Destabilize Europe, Security Officials Say"

Westliche Geheimdienst-Experten sind zu der Überzeugung gelangt, dass eine geheime Elite-Abteilung des russischen Militärgeheimdienstes GRU eine koordinierte Kampagne zur Destabilisierung Europas betreibe. "The group, known as Unit 29155, has operated for at least a decade, yet Western officials only recently discovered it. Intelligence officials in four Western countries say it is unclear how often the unit is mobilized and warn that it is impossible to know when and where its operatives will strike. The purpose of Unit 29155, which has not been previously reported, underscores the degree to which the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, is actively fighting the West with his brand of so-called hybrid warfare — a blend of propaganda, hacking attacks and disinformation — as well as open military confrontation. (...) European security officials are also perplexed by the apparent sloppiness in the unit’s operations. Mr. Skripal survived the assassination attempt, as did Mr. Gebrev, the Bulgarian arms dealer. The attempted coup in Montenegro drew an enormous amount of attention, but ultimately failed. A year later, Montenegro joined NATO. It is possible, security officials say, that they have yet to discover other, more successful operations. It is difficult to know if the messiness has bothered the Kremlin. Perhaps, intelligence experts say, it is part of the point."

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"Free Speech Is Killing Us"

Nach Ansicht von Andrew Marantz muss Meinungsfreiheit heute als Bedrohung betrachtet werden, da Äußerungen im Internet nicht selten zu Gewalttaten in der realen Welt führten. "I am not calling for repealing the First Amendment, or even for banning speech I find offensive on private platforms. What I’m arguing against is paralysis. We can protect unpopular speech from government interference while also admitting that unchecked speech can expose us to real risks. And we can take steps to mitigate those risks. The Constitution prevents the government from using sticks, but it says nothing about carrots. Congress could fund, for example, a national campaign to promote news literacy, or it could invest heavily in library programming. It could build a robust public media in the mold of the BBC. (...) Or the private sector could pitch in on its own. Tomorrow, by fiat, Mark Zuckerberg could make Facebook slightly less profitable and enormously less immoral: He could hire thousands more content moderators and pay them fairly."

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"Saudi Arabia and Iran Make Quiet Openings to Head Off War"

Die New York Times berichtet über Bemühungen Saudi-Arabiens und Irans, ihren zuletzt gefährlich eskalierten Konflikt diplomatisch zu entschärfen. "After years of growing hostility and competition for influence, Saudi Arabia and Iran have taken steps toward indirect talks to try to reduce the tensions that have brought the Middle East to the brink of war, according to officials from several countries involved in the efforts. Even the prospect of such talks represents a remarkable turnaround, coming only a few weeks after a coordinated attack on Saudi oil installations led to bellicose threats in the Persian Gulf. Any reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran could have far-reaching consequences for conflicts across the region."

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"Gems, Warlords and Mercenaries: Russia’s Playbook in Central African Republic"

Dionne Searcey schreibt, dass Russland mit seinem auffälligen Engagement in der Zentralafrikanischen Republik nicht nur politische, sondern auch handfeste ökonomische Ziele verfolge. "Russian mercenaries have fanned out across the nation to train local soldiers. A former Russian spy has been installed by the Central African president as his top security adviser. Russians shuttled warlords to peace talks with the government, helping lead to a deal with more than a dozen armed groups to stop fighting. (...) The Central African government has welcomed the Russians, betting that stability will enable it to sell more diamonds legally and use the money to rebuild the nation. (...) But Russia’s help comes at a cost. Its representatives have struck deals with the government to mine diamonds where the trade is legal — one of many signs that Russia’s push into the country is closely tied to the profits it can reap."

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"'The New Berlin Wall': Why Ukraine Is Central to the Scandal"

Andrew Higgins erinnert die aktuelle geopolitische Bedeutung der Ukraine an das Klima in Städten wie Berlin oder Wien während des Kalten Kriegs. Dazu passe die Verwicklung zahlreicher US-Persönlichkeiten in politische und Korruptionsskandale vor Ort. "Caught between the clashing geopolitical ambitions of Russia and the West, Ukraine has for years had to balance competing outside interests and worked hard to cultivate all sides, and also rival groups on the same side — no matter how incompatible their agendas — with offers of money, favors and prospects for career advancement. Paul Manafort, Rudolph Giuliani, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s son Hunter and Hillary Clinton have all, at one time or another, found their way there, escorted by Ukrainian guides with deep pockets and a keen sense of how to appeal to their vanities, ambitions and greed. (...) Ukraine’s allure for American carpetbaggers, political consultants and adventurers has put it at the center of not just one but now two presidential elections in the United States and a host of second-tier scandals. (...) Yevhen Hlibovytskyi, a lecturer in philosophy at the Ukrainian Catholic University, said Ukraine’s pivotal position in geopolitical struggles had made Kiev, a picturesque capital of cobblestoned streets on the Dnepr River, into the 21st century’s equivalent of Cold War dens of intrigue like Vienna and Berlin, or Casablanca during World War II."

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"The Berlin Police Are Confident the Killer Is in Jail. They Just Don’t Know His Name."

In den Ermittlungen der Berliner Behörden zum Mord an einem Tschetschenen im Tiergarten am 23. August gebe es einen Tatverdächtigen, dem Verbindungen zum russischen Staat unterstellt werden, berichtet auch die New York Times. "Days after the Aug. 23 killing, investigators received an email from an anonymous sender. It suggested that the suspect was a hit man who had been released from prison by the Russian authorities in order to carry out the assassination in Berlin. (...) For Germany, the case has rekindled fears of Russian assassins roving freely around Europe, just over a year after Moscow was blamed for the poisoning in Britain of a former Russian spy, Sergei V. Skripal. The geopolitical stakes also are high, given Germany’s tumultuous but important diplomatic and economic relationship with Russia. The Kremlin has denied any connection to the Berlin suspect, but it has also ignored German investigators’ requests for help. (...) Investigators are wary of being lured into a trap, possibly as part of an effort by Russia or others to muddy the waters with disinformation."

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"Why a Trump Impeachment Should Terrify You"

Frank Bruni meint, dass Donald Trump eine Amtsenthebung durchaus verdienen würde. Die möglichen politischen Folgen des nun anlaufenden Prozesses bereiten allerdings auch ihm Sorge: "(...) while an impeachment’s impact on November 2020 is unknowable, its effect on us as a nation is almost certain. A dangerously polarized and often viciously partisan country would grow more so, with people on opposing sides hunkering down deeper in their camps and clinging harder to their chosen narratives as the president — concerned only with himself — ratcheted up his insistence that truth itself was subjective and up for grabs. That’s not a reason to blink, but it’s a reality to brace for. At a juncture when we so desperately need to rediscover common ground, we’d be widening the fault lines. (...) Impeachment should terrify you because it would mean a continued, relentless, overwhelming focus on Trump’s lawlessness, antics, fictions and inane tweets."

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"Kim Jong-un Visits South Korea? The South Says It Could Happen"

Die Regierung in Seoul erwägt, den zuletzt stockenden Friedensverhandlungen auf der koreanischen Halbinsel durch einen Besuch von Nordkoreas Staatschef Kim Jong Un in Südkorea einen neuen Impuls zu verleihen. "Kim Jong-un could meet again with President Trump and even visit South Korea in November if expected talks between Pyongyang and Washington make progress on eliminating North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, South Korean intelligence officials told lawmakers on Tuesday. South Korean officials have been considering inviting Mr. Kim to a conference of Southeast Asian countries that is planned in Busan, a port city on the southeastern tip of South Korea, in November. Neither North Korea nor the United States has officially announced the resumption of dialogue. But after a monthslong hiatus, denuclearization talks between the two countries will most likely take place within 'two or three weeks,' Kim Min-ki, a governing-party lawmaker, quoted intelligence officials as saying during a closed-door parliamentary hearing on Tuesday in Seoul, the South’s capital. If such talks lead to a breakthrough and Mr. Kim visits South Korea, it would be the first such trip by a North Korean leader to the South beyond the Demilitarized Zone and could give the party of South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, a lift ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for April."

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"Boko Haram Is Back. With Better Drones."

Dionne Searcey berichtet, dass die radikalislamische Terrorgruppe Boko Haram nach zehn Jahren eines "verheerenden Krieges" besser bewaffnet sei denn je. Das nigerianische Militär werde dagegen immer schlechter ausgerüstet und sei "demoralisiert". "A full decade into the war (...) Boko Haram militants are still roaming the countryside with impunity. Their fighters now have more sophisticated drones than the military and are well-armed after successful raids on military brigades, according to local politicians and security analysts. (...) By many accounts, the Nigerian military is demoralized and on the defensive. Some soldiers have complained they haven’t had a home leave in three years. Their weapons and vehicles have fallen into disrepair. (...) The government allocates the equivalent of nearly $80 million dollars each quarter to the war effort, and yet Nigerian soldiers lack ample ammunition and medical care — leaving many residents to ask where all the money is going."

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"How Trump’s Plan to Secretly Meet With the Taliban Came Together, and Fell Apart"

Die New York Times berichtet über die Hintergründe des überraschend geplanten und dann wieder abgesagten Treffens des US-Präsidenten mit Taliban-Anführern in Camp David. "What would have been one of the biggest headline-grabbing moments of his tenure was put together on the spur of the moment and then canceled on the spur of the moment. The usual National Security Council process was dispensed with; only a small circle of advisers was even clued in. And even after it fell apart, Mr. Trump took it upon himself to disclose the secret machinations in a string of Saturday night Twitter messages that surprised not only many national security officials across the government but even some of the few who were part of the deliberations."

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"Is Xi Mishandling Hong Kong Crisis? Hints of Unease in China’s Leadership"

Die Reaktion der chinesischen Führung auf die Krise in Hongkong habe in Peking Zweifel an den Führungsqualitäten von Präsident Xi Jinping hervorgerufen, berichtet die New York Times. "(...) although few in Beijing would dare blame Mr. Xi openly for the government’s handling of the turmoil, there is quiet grumbling that his imperious style and authoritarian concentration of power contributed to the government’s misreading of the scope of discontent in Hong Kong, which is only growing. (...) There are hints of divisions in the Chinese leadership and stirrings of discontent about Mr. Xi’s policies. Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a political science professor at Hong Kong Baptist University and an expert on Chinese politics, said it appeared that there was debate during the annual informal leaders’ retreat in Beidaihe, a seaside resort not far from Beijing. Some party leaders called for concessions, while others urged action to bring Hong Kong more directly under the mainland’s control, he said. Mr. Cabestan said he believed that 'the Chinese leadership is divided on Hong Kong and how to solve the crisis.' Wu Qiang, a political analyst in Beijing, said Mr. Xi’s government had in effect adopted a strategy to procrastinate in the absence of any better ideas for resolving the crisis."

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"The Secret History of the Push to Strike Iran"

In der israelischen Regierung gebe es Überlegungen über einen unilateralen Präventivschlag gegen den Iran, berichten Ronen Bergman und Mark Mazzetti in ihrer ausführlichen Darstellung der Zusammenarbeit amerikanischer und israelischer Iran-Falken in den vergangenen zehn Jahren. Hintergrund sei die Erwartung, dass sich US-Präsident Trump im Gegensatz zu seinen Amtsvorgängern einem Militärschlag nicht entgegenstellen würde. "Once again, more than a decade after they first raised the subject with American officials, Israeli officials have been considering the possibility of a unilateral strike against Iran. Unlike with Bush and Obama, there is greater confidence that Trump wouldn’t stand in the way. Netanyahu has recently been flexing Israeli muscle around the Middle East — launching hundreds of raids into Syria against Iranian and Hezbollah arms stores and troop concentrations, and undertaking an even bolder operation in July against a base in eastern Iraq that, Israeli intelligence believed, was being used to store long-range guided missiles en route to Iranian forces in Syria. The threat of war could be a bluff, or an election ploy. But it also represents a dangerous confluence of interests: an American president often reluctant to use military force and an Israeli prime minister looking to deal with unfinished business."

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"Trial for Men Accused of Plotting 9/11 Attacks Is Set for 2021"

Das Militärtribunal gegen den mutmaßlichen Chefplaner der Anschläge vom 11. September 2001, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, soll den Aussagen eines zuständigen Richters zufolge am 11. Januar 2021 in Guantanamo beginnen. "The case against Khalid Shaikh Mohammed and four other men, should it proceed, would be the definitive trial tied to the Sept. 11 attacks. Until now, only foot soldiers of Al Qaeda have been tried at Guantánamo, and many of their convictions have been overturned. (...) The delay is in part a reflection of the difficulty the military has had in carrying out prosecutions in a judicial system that was created in response to the Sept. 11 attacks. It is still unclear if the trial will actually occur. A judge has yet to rule on whether crucial F.B.I. agents’ descriptions of the defendants’ confessions are admissible because the defendants were tortured in C.I.A. prisons. Defense lawyers have said they will go to federal court closer to the trial start date to try to stop the proceedings."

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"In Iran’s Hierarchy, Talks With Trump Are Now Seen as Inevitable"

In iranischen Führungskreisen habe sich die Überzeugung durchgesetzt, dass der Konflikt mit den USA wohl nicht ohne Gespräche mit Präsident Trump beizulegen sei, berichtet Farnaz Fassihi. Hintergrund sei die Erwartung der Wiederwahl Trumps und die Sorge, dass Iran den harten US-Sanktionen vier weitere Jahre nicht widerstehen würde. "It is a remarkable turnabout for the political establishment in Tehran, which for the past 40 years has staked its legitimacy on defiance of the United States but has been particularly hostile toward Mr. Trump. President Hassan Rouhani of Iran teased a possible meeting with Mr. Trump earlier this week, indicating he would be willing if it would benefit Iranians. Mr. Rouhani reversed himself within 24 hours, suggesting he may have been overruled by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But the people with knowledge of the Iranian hierarchy’s thinking said Mr. Rouhani’s behavior should be viewed as part of the emerging new strategy. They said the strategy was following two parallel tracks: displaying a more defiant position on Iran’s military and nuclear energy policies to irritate Mr. Trump, while signaling a willingness to talk under certain conditions, appealing to what are seen as his deal-maker instincts."

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"Ransomware Attacks Are Testing Resolve of Cities Across America"

In den USA häufen sich der New York Times zufolge die Versuche, Städte und Gemeinden durch Lösegeld-Trojaner zu erpressen. "This has been the summer of crippling ransomware attacks. Wilmer — a town of almost 5,000 people just south of Dallas — is one of 22 cities across Texas that are simultaneously being held hostage for millions of dollars after a sophisticated hacker, perhaps a group of them, infiltrated their computer systems and encrypted their data. The attack instigated a statewide disaster-style response that includes the National Guard and a widening F.B.I. inquiry. More than 40 municipalities have been the victims of cyberattacks this year, from major cities such as Baltimore, Albany and Laredo, Tex., to smaller towns including Lake City, Fla. Lake City is one of the few cities to have paid a ransom demand — about $460,000 in Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency — because it thought reconstructing its systems would be even more costly. In most ransomware cases, the identities and whereabouts of culprits are cloaked by clever digital diversions."

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"As Taliban Talk Peace, ISIS Is Ready to Play the Spoiler in Afghanistan"

Im Fall eines Friedensvertrags zwischen den USA und den Taliban würde der "Islamische Staat" bereit stehen, um die Rolle des gewalttätigen "Spielverderbers" zu übernehmen, schreibt Mujib Mashal. "The Islamic State is set to grow if an extreme layer of insurgents breaks away from the Taliban to keep fighting, and it is likely to thrive if a hastily managed American military withdrawal leaves chaos behind. 'This is a replacement for the Taliban,' said Abdul Rahim Muslimdost, an Islamist cleric who has been jailed in Pakistan and in the American detention camp at Guantánamo Bay. (...) 'Remember my words,' Mr. Muslimdost said. 'If there is a settlement with the Taliban, and they become part of the government, Pakistan has the replacement for them ready already. They will continue this war in Afghanistan in the name of the Islamic State.'"

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"ISIS Is Regaining Strength in Iraq and Syria"

Der "Islamische Staat" in Irak und Syrien sei dabei, erneut zu einer gefährlichen Bedrohung zu werden, berichtet die New York Times. "Although there is little concern that the Islamic State will reclaim its former physical territory, a caliphate that was once the size of Britain and controlled the lives of up to 12 million people, the terrorist group has still mobilized as many as 18,000 remaining fighters in Iraq and Syria. These sleeper cells and strike teams have carried out sniper attacks, ambushes, kidnappings and assassinations against security forces and community leaders. The Islamic State can still tap a large war chest of as much as $400 million, which has been hidden in either Iraq and Syria or smuggled into neighboring countries for safekeeping. (...) These trends, described by Iraqi, American and other Western intelligence and military officials, and documented in a recent series of government and United Nations assessments, portray an Islamic State on the rise again, not only in Iraq and Syria, but in branches from West Africa to Sinai. This resurgence poses threats to American interests and allies, as the Trump administration draws down American troops in Syria and shifts its focus in the Middle East to a looming confrontation with Iran."

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"The U.S. Needs More Nukes"

Bret Stephens fordert eine Modernisierung und eine Aufstockung des amerikanischen Atomwaffenarsenals, um den russischen "Betrug" im Rahmen des ausgelaufenen INF-Vertrags angemessen zu beantworten. Neue Bemühungen zur Rüstungskontrolle hält er nicht für ausreichend. "(...) the problem with all arms-control treaties isn’t that they lack for good intentions. It’s that the bad guys cheat, the good guys don’t, and the world often finds out too late. Germany cheated on the arms limitations imposed by the Versailles Treaty. The Soviet Union cheated on virtually all of its international accords, including the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty and the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty. North Korea cheated on the 1994 Agreed Framework with the Clinton administration. Iran repeatedly violated its commitments under both the Nonproliferation Treaty and the Iran deal itself. And now Russia is cheating again. (...) Right now, the U.S. arsenal does have gaps, thanks to Russian treaty violations, is increasingly decrepit, thanks to delayed modernization, and may not be large enough in the face of not one, but two, major nuclear adversaries."

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"With Tougher U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela, Bolton Says 'Time for Dialogue Is Over'"

Donald Trumps Sicherheitsberater John Bolton hat sich auf einer internationalen Konferenz, die Wege zur friedlichen Lösung des Konflikts in Venezuela suchen wollte, mit deutlichen Worten für eine kompromisslose Haltung gegenüber der Maduro-Regierung ausgesprochen. "During the conference of more than 50 countries in Lima, Peru, the Trump administration rejected compromises proposed by international mediators and some Latin American nations as it doubled down on its so-called maximum pressure policy to oust Mr. Maduro. Mr. Maduro’s government wasn’t invited, prompting his allies — Cuba, China, Russia and Turkey — to decline the invitation to the meeting. (...) On Tuesday, the conflicting strategies were laid bare. In Lima, Mr. Bolton said 'the time for dialogue is over.' (...) Harold Trinkunas, a Venezuelan politics expert at Stanford University, said the new sanctions may now give Venezuelan opposition leaders leverage to seek concessions from Mr. Maduro’s government by asking the Trump administration to back off. But he expressed doubt that the strategy would succeed."

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"The World Used to Fear German Militarism. Then It Disappeared."

ZEIT-Redakteur Jochen Bittner erklärt in diesem Beitrag für die New York Times, wie der Pazifismus das einst als militaristisch gefürchtete Deutschland "erobern" konnte. "This attitude may indeed be annoying. But the best that others can expect from Germany is to behave like a nonneutral Switzerland. German pacifism is here to stay, and there’s no use asking the country to be what it isn’t. Instead, allies would do better to encourage German leadership by means of its real strengths, economic clout and diplomatic credibility — the ability to speak softly while carrying a big carrot."

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"Private Surveillance Is a Lethal Weapon Anybody Can Buy"

Sharon Weinberger beschreibt am Beispiel der Verkaufsreise eines US-Sicherheitsunternehmens nach Usbekistan, wie sich der internationale Handel mit hochmodernen Überwachungstechnologien zu einem kaum regulierten Milliardenmarkt entwickelt habe. Davon profitierten nicht nur autoritäre Regierungen, auch private Konsumenten könnten leicht an diese "Waffen" gelangen. "In the past year, there have been at least two high-profile reports that authoritarian states have used Western surveillance technology intended to track down criminals and terrorists to spy on journalists or political activists: The United Arab Emirates company DarkMatter allegedly spied on journalists (a claim the company denies); the Saudi government has been accused of using spyware made by the Israeli firm NSO Group to hack into the phone of a close associate of Jamal Khashoggi, the Saudi writer killed in his country’s consulate in Istanbul last October. And in the United States, security researchers are raising the alarm that cheaper versions of this technology are being used and abused by private consumers. While other kinds of weapons are subjected to stringent international regimes and norms — even if these are often broken — the trade in spy technology is barely regulated."

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"Trump’s Immigration Approach Isn’t New: Europe and Australia Went First"

Die neue harte Einwanderungspolitik der USA orientiere sich an Vorbildern in Europa und Australien, schreiben Max Fisher und Amanda Taub. In beiden Fällen habe sich jedoch gezeigt, dass die Erfolgsaussichten dieser Strategie ungewiss sind. "(...) this model relies on two strategies to keep migrants and refugees from reaching the border at all: 1) Make the journey so daunting that they will not even attempt it. 2) Enlist poorer countries to detain or expel those who do anyway. That approach, which Europe and Australia have taken to extremes beyond many of Mr. Trump’s policies, was meant to curb record migrant arrivals and the white backlash to them that was upending Western politics. Those arrivals have since declined, and populist revolts cooled. But the lessons of Europe and Australia’s experience may not be so straightforward. Strategies to deter or block migrants, research has found, may temporarily reduce arrivals. Over the long term, however, they may simply push migrants to try even more dangerous routes. They may also end up requiring governments to take ever more extreme measures to shut down each new round of arrivals."

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Europa, Asien, Afrika, Amerika und weltweite Phänomene und Institutionen. Die bpb bietet ein breites Angebot zu internationalen Themen.

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Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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Publikationen zum Thema

Coverbild Internationale Sicherheit im 21. Jahrhundert

Internationale Sicherheit im 21. Jahrhundert

Die internationale Sicherheit ist fragil und bedroht. Wie können und müssen demokratische Systeme ...

Internationale Sicherheitspolitik Cover

Internationale Sicherheitspolitik

Seit Ende des Ost-West-Konflikts hat sich die internationale Sicherheitspolitik deutlich verändert....

Das Herz verlässt keinen Ort, an dem es hängt

Das Herz verlässt keinen Ort, an dem es hängt

16 Autor*innen aus Krisengebieten wünschen sich für ihre Zukunft weiterschreiben zu können. In di...

Sicherheitspolitik verstehen

Sicherheitspolitik verstehen

Wie sieht eine zeitgemäße Sicherheitspolitik angesichts einer zunehmend komplexer werdenden und st...

Am Hindukusch – und weiter?

Am Hindukusch – und weiter?

Ende 2014 zogen die letzten deutschen ISAF-Truppen aus Afghanistan ab. Dieser Band zieht Bilanz, fra...

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