US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

RUSI


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03.11.2021

"Russia-NATO Relations: Crisis or Opportunity?"

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russia-nato-relations-crisis-or-opportu
nity

Die NATO sollte ihre Politik gegenüber Russland überdenken und das Land als feindlichen Akteur einstufen, argumentiert Robert Pszczel. "Defining Russia as an adversary would simply mirror Moscow's own description of NATO. It would further the goals of operational deterrence, by sharpening NATO's defensive posture - through providing clear guidance to the Alliance's civilian and military structures - thus making it more credible. (…) While superficially such a political labelling may be seen as escalatory, in the absence of dialogue it may actually be used to better define the conditions which would allow NATO to change its evaluation of Russia and its policy."

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22.10.2021

"Ethiopia: What Next?"

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ethiopia-what-next

Ahmed Hassen und Simon Rynn skizzieren verschiedene Szenarien, wie sich der Konflikt in Äthiopien weiterentwickeln könnte: "Violent conflict erupted between Ethiopia's federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in November 2020. What was originally a political fight between the TPLF and the federal government has now shifted to a full-fledged civil war. (…) In a post-war scenario where the balance of societal forces remains finely balanced, the TDF [Tigray Defense Forces]-OLA [Oromo Liberation Army] coalition might attempt to resuscitate the current constitution under their leadership. (…) If the TDF-OLA alliance cannot achieve a breakthrough, the most likely medium-term scenario is a stalemate. (…) Of the above scenarios, a TDF-OLA coalition win seems more likely than an outright government victory or a forced peace, at least for the coming year."

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20.10.2021

"The Hazards of Expanding the Five Eyes"

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/hazards-expanding-five-eyes

Es sei unwahrscheinlich, dass die Geheimdienstallianz "Five Eyes" neue Mitglieder aufnehmen werde, analysiert Tim Willasey-Wilsey. "In recent days, the press in South Korea and India has been intrigued by the notion that the US might invite Japan, Germany, India and South Korea to become members of the Five Eyes intelligence partnership, which presently comprises the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. (…) In spite of the political attractions of widening the alliance in the face of China's increasing assertiveness, the probability is that all five countries and their agencies will oppose the idea of expanding the club. (…) Few of the four suggested countries are renowned for the quality of their intelligence. (…) Indeed, none of the four countries instinctively shares the Five Eyes allies' views on global threats."

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14.10.2021

"Hypersonic Weapons: Fast, Furious…and Futile?"

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-newsbrief/hypersonic-weapons-fast-furiousand-
futile

Hyperschallwaffen würden negative Auswirkungen auf die internationale Sicherheit haben, warnt Dominika Kunertova. "Hypersonic weaponry represents the most significant advancement in missile technology since ICBMs [Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles]. Thanks to their extreme speed and ability to manoeuvre, hypersonic weapons are on their way to undermining nuclear deterrence postures and creating cracks in strategic stability by the mid-2020s. (…) The wider use of hypersonic weapons is unlikely as their technical requirements remain complex and costly. However, when considered within the big picture of technological advancement, hypersonic weapons can multiply the disruptive impact of other emerging technologies, increase the chances of conflict escalation due to the lack of transparency that surrounds these programmes, and aggravate security dilemmas."

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06.10.2021

"Preparing for Plan B with Iran"

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/preparing-plan-b-iran

In Anbetracht der vermeintlich schwindenden Aussichten für die Wiederbelebung des internationalen Atomabkommens mit Iran (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) stellt Kelsey Davenport ein Interimsabkommen als mögliche Alternative vor. "Given the proliferation risks posed by a collapse of the JCPOA, it is critical for the US and the P4+1 group of countries - China, Russia, France, the UK and Germany - to have a plan B if talks to restore the nuclear deal fail. In that scenario, it is likely that the US and Europe will consider the playbook that led to negotiations on the JCPOA: sanctions pressure and isolation, coupled with a diplomatic off-ramp. (…) A better option would be to pivot negotiations to restore the JCPOA towards talks on an interim agreement or gesture-for-gesture arrangement that reduces the proliferation-sensitive activities on Iran's side in exchange for certain sanctions relief. This could include Iran taking steps to restore certain monitoring activities, suspend uranium enrichment above 5%, and suspend advanced centrifuge and uranium metal development."

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30.09.2021

"Russia and Iran: Disappointed Friends of the Taliban?"

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russia-and-iran-disappointed-friends-ta
liban

Iran und Russland zeigten sich zunehmend besorgt über den Kurs der neuen Taliban-Regierung in Afghanistan, beobachtet Antonio Giustozzi. "The Iranian authorities were careful from the beginning in welcoming the ascent to power of the Taliban in August, whereas the Russian authorities were initially much more positive. Increasingly, however, they have been facing the same predicament, with the Taliban swiftly distancing themselves from both. (…) Among Iran and Russia's clients and allies in Afghanistan, there is disillusionment that the two countries' promises of a decent future in a Taliban-led government have not been met, especially within the ranks of parties such as the mostly Tajik Jami'at-i Islami and various Hazara groups."

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28.09.2021

"Putting the Russian Hypersonic Threat in Perspective"

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/putting-russian-hypersonic-threat-persp
ective

Die von Russlands Hyperschallraketen ausgehende Bedrohung sollte nicht überbewertet werden, konstatiert Sidharth Kaushal. "While Russia's efforts to develop long-range precision strike capabilities are noteworthy, they have been constrained by a number of factors. First among these is the capacity limitations of Russia's defence industrial sector, which is hampered by issues including poor financial management, corruption and the added costs of import substitution, which became necessary due to the emplacement of strategic controls by Western countries after 2014. (…) The production of the [hypersonic missile] Zircon on a large scale is thus unlikely, given Russia's industrial limitations. (…) To be clear, countermeasures against hypersonics are needed. However, these countermeasures ought to be adopted with an understanding that hypersonics are a limited part of a larger, primarily subsonic Russian strike threat, and that strategic overreaction may carry its own costs."

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27.09.2021

"Turkey's Electronic Warfare Capabilities: The Invisible Power Behind its UACVs"

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/turkeys-electronic-warfare-capabilities
-invisible-power-behind-its-uacvs

Ali Bakir gibt einen Überblick über die Fähigkeiten der Türkei im Bereich der elektronischen Kriegsführung. "In modern warfare, the increasing dependence on radars, radio signals and satellites to command, control and coordinate the movement of or communicate with military assets requires sophisticated electronic capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS). (…) Turkey realised the importance of this field as early as the 1970s. Over the past two decades, the government has directed more funds towards several national defence companies and scientific institutions, such as ASELSAN, HAVELSAN and TUBITAK, to develop its EWS [electronic warfare systems] capabilities. (…) Considering Ankara's rising ambition to become a leader in robotic warfare systems and its relentless effort to add more unmanned offensive and defensive systems to the TSK's [Turkey Armed Forces'] inventory in the coming years, it will definitely focus on boosting its electronic warfare capabilities in the future."

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