US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Atlantic Council



"Can the US and Germany finally see eye to eye on China?"

Roderick Kefferpütz, stellvertretender Leiter des Grundsatz- und Strategiereferats im baden-württembergischen Staatsministerium, analysiert die Aussichten auf eine Annäherung der amerikanischen und deutschen China-Politik. "The upcoming US and German elections could offer a window of opportunity to relaunch transatlantic relations, with at least one, if not two, new leaders on both sides of the Atlantic. Many actors in the German political establishment have started to understand — perhaps indeed due to the Trump administration’s aggressive style, but also because of Beijing’s new diplomatic aggression — that new geopolitical realities mean that business-as-usual is not an option anymore with China. The 'pro-engagement with China' camp in Germany, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel, is on the wane. The need to consider geopolitics alongside economics is gaining traction, as well as the need for more military spending. Simultaneously, the US approach towards Germany should change, as when you treat your allies like vassals, you risk losing them."

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"Why U.S. global leadership rests on how it manages anti-racism upheavals"

Frederick Kempe sieht einen Zusammenhang zwischen der Reaktion der US-Politik auf die aktuelle Protestbewegung in amerikanischen Städten und der globalen Führungsrolle der USA. "That is because in a world where most countries share the global challenge of COVID-19 and recession, the nature of this racial drama is singular to the United States as 'the only modern nation that had slavery in its midst from the very beginning,' writes Harvard sociologist Orlando Patterson in this weekend’s Wall Street Journal. It’s also due to the timing of these upheavals, coming in such a divisive electoral year and at a moment of escalating major power competition with China. That has left many in the world viewing this period as a litmus test of the United States’ rare set of founding principles that enshrine the notion that all human beings are created equal and endowed by God with inalienable rights."

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"Here’s how to use tech to turn COVID-19 tragedy into 'a global immune system'"

Frederick Kempe stellt die Initiative von David Bray, Direktor des GeoTech Center beim Atlantic Council, zur Schaffung eines "Pandemic Prevention Board” vor, das zunächst nicht von Regierungen, sondern von internationalen Unternehmen geführt werden soll. "The PPB initially would be an industry-driven answer to the now-obvious need, in the words of Bill Gates, for world leaders to 'take what has been learned from this tragedy and invest in systems to prevent future outbreaks.' (…) The PPB would represent an alliance of technology companies focused on advancing solutions to safeguard against future low probability, high consequence pandemics – either naturally occurring or manually designed. Though experts are afraid to say this out loud and thus tempt fate, the COVID-19 impact has also impressed terrorist and extremist groups about the low-cost, high-impact destructive power of pathogens. In Bray’s plan, the board’s flagship initiative would center around the concept of building an 'immune system for the planet' that could detect a novel pathogen in the air, water or soil and rapidly sequence its DNA or RNA."

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"Europe’s economic emergency is also a geopolitical one"

Benjamin Haddad und Josh Lipsky vom Atlantic Council betrachten den aktuellen wirtschaftlichen Notstand in Europa auch als geopolitische Herausforderung der EU. "This is more than a debate about jobs and spending. As countries weigh the right measures to respond to the economic impact, including shared risk and lower borrowing costs through the creation of 'Coronabonds,' they must understand they are not just arguing over the rules of the eurozone. They are deciding the future of European power on the world stage. If the project fails now, if Europeans can’t ensure solidarity with each other after so much pain and sacrifice, it will not only be a devastating loss for Europe. It will also be a blow to a world looking for the political shape of a post-coronavirus world. (…) Think about how the rest of the world views the situation. As a result of the crisis many emerging markets are experiencing a sudden reversal in international financial flows. According the International Institute of Finance, at $80 billon and growing, this is the largest capital outflow from emerging markets ever recorded. China, especially if it recovers faster from the crisis than Europe, will have an opportunity. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has already started approaching countries to make offers of reconstruction. Does the EU want to leave countries with no choice other than the Belt and Road, especially in its own neighborhood: North Africa, the Western Balkans, Central Asia?"

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"Why Trump should trigger NATO’s Article 5 vs. COVID-19"

Frederick Kempe vom Atlantic Council meint, dass US-Präsident Trump angesichts der Corona-Pandemie den Bündnisfall nach Artikel 5 des NATO-Vertrags ausrufen sollte. "If NATO could bend Article 5 to combat a non-state terrorist actor striking the United States, why not also to combat the Chinese-originated COVID-19, which by Friday had infected more than 28,000 individuals and killed more than 1,200 among NATO allies. Given current transatlantic divisions, there is far greater need now than after 9/11 for a symbolic gesture of unity. (…) There’s also a strong America First reason why President Trump should have leaned more in that direction. He’s going to need Europe, just as the United States did in 2009, as this health crisis is quickly becoming a markets and financial crisis that could be addressed far more effectively through coordinated public health and fiscal stimulus measures."

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"Macron’s Russia Reset"

Fabrice Pothier vom Atlantic Council führt den "Russland-Reset" des französischen Präsidenten Macron auf drei Überlegungen zurück: "Macron’s calculus on Russia is likely based on three factors. First, the United States cannot be relied upon to follow a predictable strategy on Russia. US President Donald J. Trump may have wanted his own Russia reset, but embroiled in a special investigation and with Congress stepping up pressure on Russia with sanctions, his room for maneuver is considerably limited. (...) Second, Berlin, where Merkel has been holding a firm line on Russia over the past three years, has reached its limits. There has been minimal progress on the Minsk agreements and Merkel is facing growing pressure from her coalition partners and German business lobbies to soften the line on Russia. And third, Macron is new to foreign and security policy, but no doubt a quick and able learner as he has shown in his first appearances on the international scene. (...) the one security and foreign policy priority that matters for Macron is the instability in the Middle East and North Africa. (...) it is also a region where little can be achieved, especially at the United Nations, without Russia’s consent. Therefore, the logic goes, a modicum of stability in troubled hot spots like Syria or Libya can only be restored if the West works better with Russia."

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"Macron’s Putin Policy: 'Firmness Without Provocation'"

Gérard Araud, französischer Botschafter in den USA, hat im Gespräch mit dem Atlantic Council deutlich gemacht, dass Frankreich unter Präsident Macron eine entschiedene, aber keine provokatorische Russlandpolitik verfolgen wolle. Im Gegensatz zu Washington betrachte Paris Moskau nicht als "existentielle Bedrohung" für Europa. "'Russia has done things that we don’t accept, but at the same time Russia has its own legitimate interests, so let’s talk with the Russians to see whether we reach compromise deals which are mutually acceptable,' he said.(...) The French president is interested in 'real dialogue, but also firmness, but firmness without provocation,' said Araud."

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Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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