US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Atlantic Council


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"After the Insurrection: How Domestic Extremists Adapted and Evolved After the January 6 US Capitol Attack"

Jared Holt analysiert die Entwicklung des Extremismus in den USA in Folge des Angriffs auf das Kapitol im vergangenen Jahr: "Domestic extremist movements have evolved and adapted their strategies, infrastructure, and messaging in the year since the insurrection at the US Capitol Building on January 6, 2021. (…) Social media companies and online platforms took further actions against extremist content and activities, leading to a 'great scattering' of extremists and extremist groups across alternative platforms. (…) Altogether, the threat of political violence in the United States may be diffuse, but it is growing. Strategies to counter domestic extremism must adapt, especially in the online information environment."

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"Is Ukraine's reformed military ready to repel a new Russian invasion?"

Alina Frolova, Hans Petter Midtunn, Oleksii Pavliuchyk und Andriy Zagorodnyuk analysieren die Fähigkeiten des ukrainischen Militärs, einen möglichen russischen Angriff zu parieren. "The authors of this report believe that Ukraine's defense forces can cause significant damage. In collaboration with reservists, civil society, and volunteers, they can make any attempted invasion a miserable experience for Russia. (…) The combat capabilities, readiness, and practical skills of Ukraine's Armed Forces, Special Operations Forces, and National Guard have reached much higher levels compared to 2014. Ukraine has gained invaluable experience of war, given the duration and multidimensional nature of the ongoing conflict."

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"Deterring Chinese strategic attack: Grappling with the implications of China's strategic forces buildup"

Matthew Kroenig gibt Handlungsempfehlungen, wie die USA auf Chinas Aufstockung der Nuklearstreitkräfte reagieren sollte: "China poses a comprehensive threat to US, allied, and partner interests across the economic, technological, political, diplomatic, and military domains. (…) Washington should aim to deter nuclear and nonnuclear strategic attacks on the United States and its allies by making it clear to Beijing that any such attack would result in unacceptable costs for China. (…) US nuclear forces should support a defense strategy for China that aims to deny China the ability to invade US allies and security partners by maintaining a favorable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region."

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"Morocco and Israel are friendlier than ever thanks to the Abraham Accords. But what does this mean for the rest of North Africa?"

Karim Mezran und Alissa Pavia skizzieren die Reaktionen nordafrikanischer Staaten auf die Normalisierung der Beziehungen zwischen Israel und Marokko. "Morocco is one of four Arab League countries to normalize relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords. (…) Algeria wasted no time instrumenting the Abraham Accords by using aggressive, anti-Israel rhetoric to justify its disputes with Morocco. (…) Egypt unsurprisingly responded positively to the normalization of ties between Morocco and Israel, having already a lukewarm relationship with the Jewish State. (…) Tunisia, like Libya, is too busy dealing with its domestic problems to focus its attention on the Abraham Accords."

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"Una Squadra Vincente: The US-Italian Defense-Industrial Partnership"

Mauro Gilli und James Hasik analysieren die Zusammenarbeit zwischen Italien und den USA im Bereich der Verteidigungsindustrie. "Italy has long been an export customer of American armaments manufacturers, but during the past twenty years, Italy's own defense-industrial capabilities have proven important to American customers as well. In the process, Italian firms have become integral to the US defense-industrial supply chain. Italian firms have acquired American subsidiaries, and American firms' Italian subsidiaries. In armored vehicles, fighter aircraft, and surface warships, Italian-American trade has increased the extent of the market, lowering prices and producing valuable technologies. (…) Since the end of the Cold War, Italian governments have largely chosen the Atlanticist path in their defense-industrial relations; the US government would do well to consider the value of that long-standing commitment."

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"What the Arab Gulf is thinking after the Afghanistan withdrawal"

Kirsten Fontenrose analysiert die Beziehungen der USA zu Katar, Saudi-Arabien und den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten nach dem Abzug der amerikanischen Truppen aus Afghanistan. "Among the countries that have functional relations with the Taliban - Qatar, Turkey, Russia, China, and Pakistan - the United States is closest to Qatar. (…) That puts Qatar in a very strong position right now. (…) Riyadh wants Washington to know that it's not choosing sides in tense US-Russia relations because there are things it needs that the United States cannot (or will not) provide. In this case, that's intelligence on the ground about Taliban plans, as well as the movements of other extremist groups, which Russia provides through its own continued presence in Afghanistan. (…) A future in which Qatar is the unchallenged favorite Gulf partner of the Biden administration is untenable in Abu Dhabi, and for this and other reasons of national interest, the UAE has pulled out all the stops to assist with evacuation and humanitarian efforts."

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"The special role of US nuclear weapons"

Matthew Kroenig erklärt, weshalb die USA weiterhin eine robuste und moderne nukleare Abschreckung benötigten. "The United States' three nuclear-armed adversaries - Russia, China, and North Korea - are all modernizing and expanding their nuclear arsenals while consistently relying more on nuclear weapons in their defense strategies. (…) The Biden administration announced an intention to 'reduce the role of nuclear weapons.' But shedding needed US nuclear capabilities would not produce much in the way of meaningful benefits. Such actions would, however, weaken the US nuclear deterrent, could be interpreted as a lack of resolve by US adversaries, and may even cause US allies to doubt whether Washington intends to live up to its alliance commitments."

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"Germany's defense minister: Only political will can protect Europe"

In einem Beitrag für den Atlantic Council schreibt Bundesverteidigungsministerin Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer: "It is true that the West has suffered a significant blow in Afghanistan. But whether this will translate into permanent defeat depends entirely on the conclusions we now draw from this experience. If those lessons lead to a divide between the European Union (EU) and the United States, or between Europeans and Americans, that would be a real defeat. (…) But if we Europeans get serious about defense now, and if we manage to back up our diplomacy with genuine military muscle and strengthen the West as America's partner in leadership, then the West as a whole will be the winner."

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"US intel is now flying blind in Afghanistan"

Der Abzug des gesamten US-Personals aus Afghanistan schränke amerikanische Geheimdienste bei der Informationsgewinnung stark ein, bemerkt Jennifer Counter. "Intelligence collection is difficult and time consuming, requiring significant long-term investment. Now, with the absence of analysts on the ground, Washington will face a significantly tougher challenge in maintaining relationships that led to years of productive intelligence collection and results-driven operations. (…) Long before the conflict in Afghanistan, the US military and intelligence community built robust collection networks based on person-to-person relationships out of necessity - which is why human intelligence (HUMINT) became the primary form of intelligence over the last twenty years. (…) Without a physical presence, the intelligence community will not be able to capture the full story - a risk that, if left unaddressed, could reach far beyond the region."

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"Countering ransomware: Lessons from aircraft hijacking"

Simon Handler, Trey Herr, Emma Schroeder und Frances Schroeder benennen Lehren, die aus vergangenen "Ransomware"-Vorfällen gezogen werden können. "Ransomware is a type of malware, or malicious software, designed to encrypt data, and deployed to block a victim's access to their own data until they pay the attacker's demanded ransom in return for the data's decryption. (…) Banning ransom payments is an attractive potential solution - cutting off the lifeblood of ransomware gangs and halting the circular growth of their capabilities. (…) For the United States and its allies, the response to the surge in ransomware activity must be comprehensive, encompassing both active and passive lines of effort. (…) Rather than relying on directly prosecuting ransomware groups, the United States should prioritize applying pressure on the states that provide safe harbor or passive support to these groups."

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"Haiti needs the world's help. Now."

Die internationale Gemeinschaft müsse Haiti nach dem Erdbeben am vergangenen Wochenende dringend unterstützen, fordern Jason Marczak und Wazim Mowla. "Prior to the earthquake, and even before Moïse's assassination, kidnappings and violence were on the rise due to increased gang activity. Given the widespread unemployment and poverty that will likely result from Saturday's event, gangs will have the opportunity to both increase their membership as well as reach. These groups have established some form of legitimacy among the population in Haiti, which means that a limited or poor response from the government and international actors could sway Haitians toward illicit organizations that are able to fill the vacuum and provide access to public goods and services."

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"Biden's empty posts are a national security problem"

Dass unter der Biden-Administration noch viele Regierungsämter vakant sind, sei ein Problem für die nationale Sicherheit der USA, konstatiert Brian O'Toole. "Stunningly, an administration that was so well-organized and staffed as a campaign has been more dysfunctional in its nominations and confirmations than the Trump administration, which came into office with hardly any plans on how to fill out a government (and suffered for it). (...) While staffing shortages have undermined the Biden administration's ability to address key challenges across numerous spheres, national security is perhaps the most consequential. The administration's inaction translates into real problems."

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"The new US sanctions on Belarus: Strong, but not enough"

Daniel Fried und Brian O'Toole kommentieren die neuen Sanktionen der USA gegen die belarussische Regierung. "A reasonable set of targets, the sanctions are welcome news for opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and her pro-democracy movement. (…) Still, the administration left viable options on the table. (...) The sanctions stop short of restricting Belarusian sovereign debt, failing to match the EU measures announced in June and the UK package announced today. (...) Experience suggests that tactical patience and realism is needed - but so is strategic determination. After a year of fighting at home and abroad, the Belarusian democratic opposition appears organized, determined, and courageous. We cannot let them down."

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"The 'Balkanization' of Iran is a fantasy. Here's why."

Raz Zimmt schildert die politischen Spannungen im Zusammenhang mit ethnischen Minderheiten in Iran. "Despite the profound differences between the various ethnic groups, Iran has existed as a separate political and cultural entity with a unique national identity for centuries, unlike most Arab nation-states, whose borders were shaped by Western powers after World War I. The differences between the historical development of the ethnic minorities, their religious affiliation (Sunnis and Shia), and the degree of their integration within Iranian society also significantly reduces the threat posed by minorities to Iran’s national cohesion."

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"The best defense: Why NATO should invest in resilience"

Die COVID-19-Pandemie habe nicht nur weltweit die Erfolge und Misserfolge von Gesundheitssystemen verdeutlicht, sondern auch die Bedeutung multilateraler Zusammenarbeit im Bereich der "biosecurity", argumentiert Jaclyn Levy. "Preparing for the next pandemic will require adaptation, interconnectivity, and resilience - the capacity to resist and recover quickly from major infrastructure shocks. Intergovernmental alliances like NATO can play a critical role in the relationship- and capacity-building necessary for a healthy global biosecurity sphere, which ensures a more secure world. (…) Article 3 of the North Atlantic Treaty includes resilience as a critical element of its mission to achieve collective defense, and the Alliance supports multiple programs to build resilience against non-traditional threats."

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"From the G7 to a D-10: Strengthening Democratic Cooperation for Today's Challenges"

Die USA und ihre Verbündeten sollten bestehende Kooperationsformate aktualisieren und neue schaffen, argumentieren Ash Jain und Matthew Kroenig. "With the rules-based democratic order under threat, leading democracies need to develop common strategic approaches that pool their collective influence to confront today's challenges. To this end, this paper proposes a formal Democracies Ten - a 'D-10' - aimed at fostering strategic alignment and coordinated action among a group of like-minded, influential democracies to advance a rules-based democratic order. (…) The resulting group would bring together the current members of the G7, including the European Union, plus Australia and South Korea. In addition, the D-10 could include - though not necessarily from the outset - India, South Africa, and/or Brazil, if concerns over like-mindedness can be overcome."

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"China is a present danger to Europe. NATO's defense plans must respond."

Bereits heute stelle China eine unmittelbare Bedrohung für die Sicherheit Europas dar, schreibt John Deni. "Some Chinese threats to European security are merely insidious. For example, China undermines Europe's military capabilities by stealing defense-related intellectual property and sharing it with its own military and defense industry as China develops new weapons and capabilities. (…) In other cases, the Chinese threat to Europe manifests in the form of outright attacks. Chinese cyberattacks on European government, industry, military, academic, and civil institutions - including, reportedly, on hospitals during the pandemic - are relentless and massive."

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"Assessing Russia's role and responsibility in the Colonial Pipeline attack"

Scott Jasper beleuchtet die Rolle der russischen Regierung beim jüngsten Cyberangriff auf das US-amerikanische Pipeline-Unternehmen "Colonial Pipeline": "The problem is that the Russian government actively protects hackers living within its borders, including suspects wanted by Western law enforcement and intelligence agencies. (…) The Russian government's tolerance of criminal hacking within its borders that targets foreigners guarantees a safe haven for more ransomware attacks. In not taking decisive action to stop harmful ransomware operations, such as arresting the actors and obtaining decryption tools, the Russian government appears to be at least encouraging such activity in order to weaken the West."

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"Report of the Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data"

Der Einsatz neuer Technologien könne zu einer widerstandsfähigeren globalen Gemeinschaft führen, resümiert die von der US-amerikanischen Denkfabrik "Atlantic Council" initiierte "Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data" in ihrem Bericht für die USA und deren Partner. "The report's recommendations embody several ideals. First, work to ensure the benefits of new technologies reach all sectors of society. Second, define protocols and standards for permissible ways to develop and use technologies and data, consistent with the norms of the United States and like-minded nations. Third, guide technology cooperation and sharing with nondemocratic nations based on respecting democratic values."

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"Afghanistan: What now to avoid disaster?"

Die Unterstützung Afghanistans nach dem Abzug des US-Militärs werde für die Vereinigten Staaten eine diplomatische Herausforderung sein, prognostizieren James Cunningham, Hugo Llorens, Ronald Neumann, Richard Olson und Earl Anthony Wayne. "The United States must develop a workable plan to help keep basic Afghan government services running, to back civil-society organizations, and to provide for basic humanitarian needs. (…) US diplomacy got the Taliban to negotiations, but with the removal of its troops and the conclusion of its own agreement with the Taliban, the United States is no longer positioned to act as a unilateral peacemaker. Now is the moment for the United Nations (UN) to play a more prominent role in the process, as the United States has asked it to. (…) This does not - repeat, not - mean that US diplomacy should stop. It should in fact be intensified, but in support of UN efforts, with diplomatic partners, to advance the peace process."

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"How the US and EU can counter digital threats together"

China und Russland versuchten, gezielt Lücken in der westlichen Cyberabwehr auszunutzen, bemerkt Harry Hannah. "These gaps exist because national policies, laws, regulations, and standards vary across NATO members and across military and civilian dimensions of the Alliance. As a result, to create effective defense strategy, NATO must recognize that the military threat environment is shaped by the civilian organizations that write these rules. (…) To close these gaps as a part of its defense strategy, the United States should develop a strong collaborative relationship with the European Union (EU) in the digital and information sphere."

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"Opportunity knocks for NATO and its partners in the Asia-Pacific"

Die Bedeutung von Australien, Japan, Neuseeland und Korea als Partner der NATO sei lange unterschätzt worden, argumentiert Mirna Galic und empfiehlt: "If NATO and its Asia-Pacific partners do undertake dialogue and consultation on China (…) they should pair this move with the broader strategic thinking about their relations that has so far been missing. (…) There is, moreover, an important benefit to such actions in terms of the message they would send to China and others in the region. A more holistic and strategic approach to relations between NATO and the Asia-Pacific partners would substantiate the view that NATO's increased engagement on China is part of a natural evolution of its relationships in the Asia-Pacific, rather than just a thumb in China's eye."

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"Why Europe's future is on the line in the Taiwan Strait"

Ein Konflikt zwischen China und den USA in der Straße von Taiwan werde immer wahrscheinlicher, erläutert Philip Anstrén. Auf Europas Zukunft könnte dies enorme Auswirkungen haben: "A military conflict between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait would likely wreak economic havoc on the scale of the 2008 financial crisis, which inflicted a great deal of damage on the European Union. (…) The consequences for Europe of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would extend well beyond the economic realm. Regardless of the outcome, it would likely turn the attention of US defense planners decisively toward the Indo-Pacific, cementing the 'pivot to Asia' initiated by the Obama administration. The result could be a United States that pays much less attention to - and increasingly withdraws from - Europe."

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"How Russia, China, and climate change are shaking up the Arctic"

Norwegen beunruhige die zunehmende militärische Präsenz Russlands in der Arktis, schreibt Larry Luxner. "Frank Bakke-Jensen, Norway's minister of defense, outlined his concerns during a March 19 conference (…). 'Russian armed forces have significantly modernized during the last ten to twelve years. Its capabilities are increasingly integrated, giving Russia more flexibility,' he said. (…) Russia recently started using its new airbase on Franz Josef Land, an archipelago in the Arctic Ocean. From this location, 'Russia is now able to conduct air operations over vast areas in the Arctic,' Bakke-Jensen warned. 'This Russian ability to reduce NATO's freedom of movement is particularly worrying for transatlantic security.'"

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"The United Nations Security Council needs to authorize military action to prevent the spill of the FSO SAFER"

Aus dem von Huthi-Rebellen besetzten Öltanker "FSO Safer" drohe 2,14 Millionen Barrel Öl in das Rote Meer zu gelangen, erläutern Ian Ralby, Rohini Ralby und David Soud. Um diese ökologische Katastrophe zu verhindern und eine sichere Extraktion des Öls zu ermöglichen, müsse der Sicherheitsrat der Vereinten Nationen dringend militärische Maßnahmen autorisieren. "The Houthis who control the coastal area of Ras Isa and who have a small group of armed men onboard the tanker have reneged on virtually every agreement they have signed, so any ostensible guarantee of security on their part would not be worth the paper on which it was written. Their recent attacks on the Saudi oil port of Ras Tanura show that they have no hesitation about risking catastrophic harm. The lives of millions along the Red Sea coast are at stake; this is a matter that significantly impacts peace and security, and the UN should invoke Chapter VII in order to finally solve this solvable problem."

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"Why NATO should adopt a feminist foreign policy"

Warum sollte die NATO eine feministische Außenpolitik (FFP) verfolgen? Es wäre moralisch richtig und würde das Bündnis stärken, argumentieren Gabriela Doyle, Madeline Olden, Leah Sheunemann und Christopher Skaluba. "In a dangerous world marked by rising authoritarianism and shrinking freedoms, NATO has an opportunity to double down on its values by adopting FFP. In doing so, the Alliance would confidently demonstrate that democratic ideals are a source of strength rather than an Achilles heel and achieve a more resilient and secure transatlantic community."

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"It's time to change the way we talk about women in conflicts"

Bei der Rolle von Frauen im Kontext von Peacebuilding und Entwicklungsprojekten herrsche eine problematische Diskrepanz zwischen Rhetorik und Realität, konstatiert Aude Darnal. "While women are underrepresented in the political and security sectors, and there is a lack of gender experts across these sectors, a more significant reason for the disconnect is that the discussion about women overwhelmingly focuses on them as victims of conflict and political violence without also recognizing them as participants in it. That's a problem. To design effective strategies to prevent violence and support women in conflict, policymakers need to account for the variety of roles women play in conflict and more closely examine the factors that drive women to act as agents of violence."

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"The unintended consequence of Ethiopia's civil war might be a border war with Sudan"

Eine Folge des Bürgerkriegs in der äthiopischen Region Tigray könnte eine gewaltsame Auseinandersetzung zwischen Äthiopien und Sudan sein, warnt Cameron Hudson. Denn im Zuge des Bürgerkriegs würden sich immer mehr Militärs und Milizen in der Grenzregion aufhalten. "Given the lack of interoperability among many of these forces, coupled with the fact that the vast majority of this mobilization is occurring in a narrow band along the border that is only a few kilometers wide, the chances are high that the slightest misstep or miscalculation could result in a large-scale outbreak of violence and a rapid escalation among three national armies and many state and national militias."

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"With the boycott over, Qatar tries to reclaim top regional mediator role"

Im Januar 2021 wurde die von Ägypten, Bahrain, Saudi-Arabien und den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten ausgehende Blockade gegen Katar aufgehoben. Seither versuche sich Doha erneut als regionaler Vermittler zu positionieren, erläutern Ali Fathollah-Nejad und Cinzia Bianco. Die Aussicht auf Erfolg sei jedoch begrenzt. "(…) (W)hatever the goodwill from Doha, there is unlikely to be much fire behind the smoke of Qatar's mediation rhetoric. In fact, given its apparent failure to seek prior coordination with fellow Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states before publicly issuing (…) mediation offers, Doha's calls may indeed produce the opposite result of what they are declared to seek, namely entrenching mistrust within a still to be revived GCC."

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"Is Russia slowly annexing Belarus in plain sight?"

Die Rekordzahl der in diesem Jahr geplanten gemeinsamen Militärübungen von Russland und Belarus zeige nicht nur, dass Aljaksandr Lukaschenka zunehmend die Nähe des Kremls sucht, meint Brian Whitmore. "Given Lukashenka's vulnerability, Putin is now clearly trying to press his advantage and turn Belarus into a pliant and obedient client state. The push by Moscow to turn Belarusian territory into a platform for Russia's armed forces is accompanied by moves to accelerate economic integration that could effectively amount to a soft annexation."

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