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"The slow death of ambition: German foreign policy after Kramp-Karrenbauer's resignation"

Jana Puglierin bedauert den angekündigten politischen Rückzug von Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, da diese den "schwerfälligen" Status Quo der deutschen Außenpolitik zumindest ansatzweise in Frage gestellt habe. "AKK’s resignation will make things even worse. The leadership dispute in the CDU – which is, in reality, a fundamental disagreement about the party’s political direction – will take up even more energy than before. The grand coalition will continue to be a kind of caretaker government in its lack of vision and big ambitions. (…) Moreover, AKK is one of the few political figures who dares to position herself outside the ponderous foreign policy status quo. Even if her proposals were not always convincing or well timed (…) she at least dared to tackle issues that others had left in a vacuum."

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"The search for freedom of action: Macron’s speech on nuclear deterrence"

Tara Varma begrüßt die jüngste Rede von Präsident Macron zur nuklearen Abschreckung als "kühnen" Beginn eines strategischen Dialogs über die Rolle französischer Atomwaffen in der europäischen Sicherheitsarchitektur. "True to the established 'Macron method', the president’s deterrence speech presents Europeans with a bold move: an offer of a strategic dialogue on the role of French deterrence in European security with those who are willing to engage in one, holding out the possibility of association with exercises conducted by French nuclear forces. Moreover, the speech makes clear that the force de frappe (military strike force) still remains a national prerogative, but that France endorses its responsibilities in contributing to the common strategic culture Europeans need to survive in an increasingly disrupted world. (…) Macron uses the speech to remind his fellow Europeans that French decision-making independence in use of the nuclear deterrent is fully compatible with 'the unshakeable solidarity with our Europeans partners'. He reiterates that French nuclear forces play a major role in Europe through their very existence and, as a consequence, have 'a genuinely European dimension'. In all, Macron reaches out to the rest of Europe on Russia, the transatlantic relationship, and European solidarity."

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"Insecurity in the Sahel: Europe’s next fight against jihadism"

Andrew Lebovich kritisiert, dass die Antiterror-Strategie der G5-Sahel-Gruppe, Frankreichs und anderer europäischer Länder die politischen und Governance-Probleme in der Region vernachlässige. "To be sure, as only the outline of a plan, the road map needs a lot of work before implementation. Nonetheless, the fact that recent discussions in Pau and elsewhere heavily focused on security – while failing to grapple with core political issues of governance and the security forces’ sometimes abusive treatment of communities they are meant to protect – is a cause for concern. Ultimately, these provisions focus on the return of the state to troubled areas. But there remain questions about what kind of state should return, and how to avoid repeating the errors and oversights that helped destabilise the Sahel in the first place."

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"War and pieces: Political divides in southern Yemen"

Raiman al-Hamdani und Helen Lackner mit einer Analyse der historischen und politischen Hintergründe des Konflikts zwischen der Regierung Jemens und den separatistischen Bewegungen im Süden des Landes. Die beiden Experten bezweifeln die Umsetzung der Vereinbarung vom 5. November 2019, die den bewaffneten Konflikt eigentlich beiliegen sollte. "This paper focuses on the origins, development, and prospects of political challenges in southern Yemen. It begins with an analysis of historical divisions in the south, outlining key issues within specific governorates – including the political fragmentation that has occurred since 2015, when the war in Yemen first gained an international dimension. The paper concludes by examining the significance of the Riyadh Agreement, as well as the implications for the south of current attempts to end the war. It argues that EU policymakers need to address the diverse, complex problems facing southern Yemen if they are to create a sustainable solution to the conflict – and makes several recommendations for how they could achieve this. The EU should continue to support development and state-building in Yemen, and should increase its efforts to mediate between southerners, as well as between southerners and northerners. This would promote cooperation and coexistence, encouraging the development of institutional and democratic platforms upon which southerners can achieve self-determination."

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"Will he stay or will he go? Putin’s role will change"

Kadri Liik erwartet angesichts der angekündigten Verfassungsreformen in Russland, dass sich Wladimir Putins politische Rolle in jedem Fall verändern wird. "Ever since the presidential election of 2018, the big, though quietly debated, political question in Russia has been about Putin’s plan for 2024. Will he groom a successor to take over his current duties? Will he seek to stay on in the Kremlin and amend the constitution accordingly? Or will he reshape the political system so that it allows him to leave? Ultimately, it is a combination of the three – as it probably had to be. (…) And this is exactly what Putin announced on 15 January: some diversification of power that makes the presidency less powerful than it has been recently and the State Duma more important, and that carves out a newly influential role for the State Council. Putin will still groom a successor – whoever steps into the diminished presidency will need his approval. And Putin himself will not slip into obscurity – we’ll no doubt hear from him after 2024. But he will act in a new capacity on a changed landscape."

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"Mapping European leverage in the MENA region"

Experten des European Council on Foreign Relations haben sich in diesem Dossier mit dem europäischen Einfluss in der MENA-Region beschäftigt. "Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests".

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"Germany’s quiet leadership on the Libyan war"

Die deutsche Bundesregierung spiele in Libyen seit einiger Zeit eine weitgehend unbeachtete, aber durchaus wichtige Vermittlerrolle, berichten René Wildangel und Tarek Megerisi. Der Erfolg dieser schwierigen Aufgabe hänge nicht zuletzt vom Verhalten des engen Partners Frankreich ab. "Germany mediates between not the warring groups in Libya but their foreign backers. The German government is widely seen as the perfect arbiter in the conflict, given its neutrality, its good relationships with all involved, its status as the leading funder of stabilisation efforts in Libya, and its prominence in European politics. Yet Germany has its work cut out – due not least to the actions of its closest ally, France. In the last few months, French President Emmanuel Macron has launched proposals for European foreign and security policy at dizzying speed – although most of them have received lukewarm responses from Berlin and, as a consequence, foundered just as quickly. While Macron appears to be concerned about Europe’s lack of strategic sovereignty, he has demonstrated a commitment to ruthlessly pursuing his vision of foreign policy in the EU’s southern neighbourhood. Nowhere is this more apparent than in French support for General Khalifa Haftar’s attempt to grab power in Libya."

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"Two people separated by a common idea: Why Macron and AKK agree"

Trotz ihres unterschiedlichen Auftretens verfolgten Frankreichs Präsident Macron und die deutsche Verteidigungsministerin Kramp-Karrenbauer ähnliche Ziele, schreibt Ulrike Esther Franke. "(…) beyond (…) rhetorical differences, they largely share the same analysis of the world. They both worry about the rise of China, the return of great power competition, and the risk that Europe will be marginalised. They agree that 'the United States remains our major ally, we need them, we are close and we share the same values' (Macron), but that 'both the willingness and ability to do more than its fair share are dwindling in the United States. This is why we must step up in future, just like others who are defending a reliable, free and democratic order.' (AKK). Given that there is no evidence that the two politicians coordinated their interventions, their many points of agreement are all the more meaningful. (…) In general, the two interventions show that AKK and Macron agree on the need to improve Europe’s defence capabilities – to strengthen the European pillar of NATO, as she argues, or to step in if NATO fails, as he suggests. German and French ideas on European defence remain divided by language, style, and even by some important substantive issues. But AKK’s and Macron’s interventions show that German and French leaders now share a common idea more than ever before. This is something they should build on."

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"Trump’s Ukrainegate could help Ukraine"

Die Ukraine könnte nach Ansicht von Joanna Hosa vom jüngsten Skandal um Donald Trump durchaus profitieren. "While the focus on corruption is not ideal, being in the spotlight might be good for Ukraine. Oscar Wilde’s observation that 'there is only one thing in life worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about' holds true for Ukraine. World leaders are again hearing that the war in Ukraine is not over and that it is an important European country. Zelensky’s message that 'Ukraine needs more support fighting its two wars: with corruption and in Donbas' has a new audience. There will now be more scrutiny of American support for Ukraine, which will help protect the country from threats to withhold it – explicit or otherwise. Ukraine is gaining prominence – so much so that Trump has even stopped calling it 'the Ukraine', which is quite something."

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"Can Germany stop Libya becoming the new Syria?"

Die geplante internationale Libyen-Konferenz in Deutschland sollte nach Ansicht von Tarek Megerisi als Gelegenheit für einen diplomatischen Durchbruch genutzt werden, um das Abgleiten des Landes in ein Chaos nach syrischem Vorbild zu verhindern. Dabei werde viel auf die Vorbereitung des Gipfels durch die Bundesregierung ankommen. "If Germany wants its new initiative, and rare foray into north African foreign policy, to result in greater Libyan stability, then it will have to work hard to ensure that the right agenda is on the table, and that it has enough allies present to make it count. (...) Germany knows the problem facing it all too well, given that Haftar’s assault coincided with its presidency of the Security Council, during which time its attempts to see through resolutions in special sessions were blocked or watered down. Recent statements by Merkel and Germany’s ambassador to Libya suggest that Germany is aware of the perils of allowing Libya to continue down its current path, and of the importance of constraining international interference in Libya. (...) The follow-up matters too: if the Germany conference is to be the first step towards stability, then it will inevitably be followed by a mediation process. Berlin should work to ensure that this event is used to provide [UN Special Representative Ghassan Salamé] with the space to resume his bottom-up process as that mediation process."

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"Mapping armed groups in Mali and the Sahel"

Andrew Lebovich hat die Einflusszonen radikalislamischer Gruppen und internationaler Akteure in Mali, Niger und Burkina Faso in einer informativen Karte dargestellt. "Violence is tearing Mali and the Sahel apart. But who are the armed groups behind the bloodshed? Where are international actors stationed in the region? And what motivates them all? This project maps jihadist and non-jihadist groups and pinpoints the presence of external actors in the region as of May 2019."

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"Nothing to see here: Europe and the INF treaty"

Die Europäer hätten das Ende des INF-Vertrags mit demonstrativer Gleichgültigkeit aufgenommen, stellt Nick Witney fest. Dahinter stehe keineswegs ein gestiegenes Selbstbewusstsein, sondern eine tiefsitzende Weigerung, die neue Bedeutung der Atomwaffenfrage anzuerkennen. "As ECFR found in a comprehensive recent survey of attitudes towards nuclear deterrence across Europe, Europeans are choosing to address these issues with, in the words of the report’s title, 'eyes tight shut'. In some member states, folk memory of the domestic conflicts sparked by the Euromissile Crisis is evergreen. Others – particularly non-NATO members – retain a deep-seated attachment to unilateral nuclear disarmament. Few have any appetite for facing up to the wider implications of the deterioration of the US security guarantee to Europe under Trump. So, if the Russians and the Americans seem ready to view the painfully constructed arms control regimes of the twentieth century as disposable, most Europeans seem ready to go with the flow. (...) it is myopic to refuse to take the elevated Russian nuclear threat seriously. As the ECFR report cited above argues, Europeans need to take their heads out from under the duvet and start thinking seriously about how to create a 'Euro-deterrent' – that is, about how to effectively extend the deterrence capacity of the French and British nuclear arsenals to cover European partners and allies."

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"From plaything to player: How Europe can stand up for itself in the next five years"

Der frühere schwedische Ministerpräsident Carl Bildt und Mark Leonard vom European Council on Foreign Relations erläutern in diesem Strategiepapier ihren sicherheitspolitischen Fahrplan für die neue EU-Kommission. "The coming five years herald acute pressure on Europe, particularly as Russia, China, and the US undermine multilateral institutions and treat trade, finance data, and security guarantees as instruments of power rather than global public goods. The new high representative should move quickly to rewire European foreign policymaking to exercise strategic sovereignty. The high representative needs more support on this strategy – from deputies, special representatives, and foreign ministers tasked with specific roles. The new leadership team in Brussels needs to reoperationalise European defence, build Europe’s self-sufficiency through a strong European pillar in NATO, and consider innovations such as a European Security Council. Europe will only build greater unity by tackling controversial issues head on in the European Council and the Foreign Affairs Council. The high representative needs to play a much more active role in these debates."

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"A tribunal for ISIS fighters?"

Der Fall der drei im Irak zum Tod verurteilten französischen IS-Kämpfer hat erneut die Frage aufgeworfen, was mit europäischen Anhängern des "Islamischen Staates", die in Irak oder Syrien aufgegriffen worden sind, geschehen sollte. Anthony Dworkin zufolge findet die Idee eines internationalen Tribunals zunehmend Anklang. Vor der Einrichtung eines solchen Tribunals müssten allerdings einige wichtige Fragen geklärt werden. Dworkins Fazit lautet: "For the moment, Europe’s newfound enthusiasm for an international tribunal remains more a political aspiration than a well-developed and credible policy. Next week’s meeting may start the process of transforming this aspiration into a clearly defined project that can decide between the different options and generate support for a path forward. A tribunal would provide a powerful way of ensuring that those most responsible for the crimes of ISIS were held accountable. But it would not generate a magical solution to the problems posed by the broad mass of European fighters and ISIS supporters in Syria. Europe should not put off the task of devising other ways to handle the detainees while discussions on an international tribunal gradually advance."

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"The strange influence of the Macedonian model"

Vessela Tcherneva schreibt, dass die begrüßenswerte politische Entwicklung in Nord-Mazedonien auch in anderen Balkan-Ländern eine positive Wirkung zeige. "After almost a decade at the bottom of the list of Western Balkans’ aspirants entering the European Union, North Macedonia climbed a steep slope to catch up, even overtaking some along the way. Its path included public protests and external pressure (from the United States and the EU) which brought down long-time authoritarian prime minister Nikola Gruevski. His successor – Zoran Zaev, a relatively unknown politician from a small town – led an SDSM government that concluded a friendship treaty with Bulgaria and resolved the long-standing dispute with another neighbour, Greece, over North Macedonia’s name. (...) Zaev’s victory was the last episode in a process that began more than three years ago and proved that a clear vision and strong political will can defeat authoritarian leaders, resolve symbolic issues with neighbours (even in the Balkans!), and reinstate a country’s as a credible EU candidate. (...) Meanwhile, several waves of protest have spread across the Western Balkans in recent months. All have been influenced by the events in North Macedonia (...)".

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"The march of Haftar: Why Europeans should stand in the way of the Libyan National Army"

Tarek Megerisi meint dagegen, dass sich die Europäer dem Vormarsch der Libyschen Nationalarmee (LNA) von General Haftar auf Tripolis entgegen stellen sollten. Die Hoffnung, dass Haftar Libyen stabilisieren könnte, hält er für illusorisch. "The key point to understand is that Haftar is not as strong as he appears and cannot in the end deliver stability to Libya. He cannot make good on all the promises he has made either to his Libyan counterparts or to the international partners to whom he has promised preferential access and authoritarian stability. Despite the effective branding, Haftar is not actually in control of an army in the traditional sense of the term. The LNA is a shaky alliance between various militias of tribal, religious and local interests around a core of more traditional forces (who themselves are highly compromised by Salafist components.) (...) At this point, his forces are overextended, his finances stretched, and if he’s forced to fight, he may be more fragile than many realise. Indeed, his recent escalation was, in part, driven by these vulnerabilities and his need for quick success. In the end, Haftar has no unifying ideology on which to build a legitimate system of governance and no army to supplant the existing patchwork of militias and local forces controlling Libya. So, it is unlikely that any rule he concocts will be stable for long after his expansion ceases."

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"France's strongman strategy in the Sahel"

Tarek Megerisi und Andrew Lebovich schreiben, dass Frankreich derzeit versucht, die Sahelzone durch die Unterstützung der dort herrschenden autoritären Regierungen zu stabilisieren. Langfristig könnte diese Strategie allerdings zu einer Stärkung extremistischer Kräfte führen, so ihre Warnung. "While this may look like Françafrique redux in which France controls or exerts undue influence on its African partners, the situation is in many ways more complicated than this. France is now highly dependent on auxiliaries and partners – be they national leaders or armed groups that patrol the borders of Mali and Niger. Such partnerships can have dangerous consequences, as can be seen when these auxiliaries commit human rights abuses or pursue policies that may threaten broader French stabilisation goals. Indeed, some of the instability in the region may partly result from these interventions and partnerships. (...) Each country in the region is facing a different kind of internal threat: worsening jihadist violence in Mali and Burkina Faso; a potential increase in militancy and trafficking in northern Niger; various rebellions in northern Chad; and now a return to violence in southern Libya. If the European – particularly French – response in each case is to merely reinforce authoritarian rule, it could inflame such militancy in the long run."

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"Negative energy: Berlin’s Trumpian turn on Nord Stream 2"

Gustav Gressel wirft der Bundesregierung wegen deren Festhalten an der Gaspipeline Nord Stream 2 vor, die sicherheitspolitischen Umstände des Projekts zu ignorieren und "Doppelstandards" zu offenbaren. "Germany has no capacity or domestic mandate to deal with the geopolitical fallout of its choices on Nord Stream 2. It cannot prevent Russia from absorbing Belarus, nor from escalating the war in Ukraine. In environmental and climate politics, German leaders often emphasise that one should not commit to policies whose ramifications one cannot control. But, in a mirror image of Trump’s approach to climate policy, Merkel simply bows to ideological stubbornness and the lobbying efforts of domestic industry and special interest groups.“

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"Europe should do better on Venezuela"

Pawel Zerka lobt die bisherige Reaktion der EU auf die Krise in Venezuela, kritisiert aber zugleich, dass es keine gemeinsame Position der europäischen Regierungen gebe. "So far, the European Union has coped with the challenge surprisingly well. It has allowed its members a reasonable degree of flexibility in dealing with Venezuela. (...) However, there are clear limits to what the EU can achieve without establishing a common position on Venezuela. It failed to do so, largely as a result of Italy’s veto. (...) the EU’s lack of a unified position is becoming a serious practical and diplomatic handicap. Individual member states can impose limited sanctions on Maduro’s regime, such as travel bans and asset freezes. But it is hard for them to impose meaningful economic sanctions on Venezuela given the existence of the EU’s single market. Such measures are key to European efforts to place Maduro under real pressure."

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"Russia, Germany, and the INF: Will Berlin break its silence?"

Gustav Gressel warnt nach dem Ende des INF-Vertrags vor einer atomaren Überlegenheit Russlands in Europa und wirft der deutschen Politik vor, auf die drohende Gefahr nicht angemessen zu reagieren. "(...) Berlin has not yet come to terms with the seriousness of the situation and that wider parts of the political establishment do not feel threatened by Russia’s build-up of nuclear-capable carrier means. This, in turn, is causing further suspicion in European capitals that actually feel threatened. (...) It is not a matter of whether NATO should counter-deploy; instead the debate should focus on how to counter-deploy, and who should do this. For the moment there is no indication that the US would deploy intermediate-range systems to Europe other than the next generation cruise missiles deployed on submarines. (...). With submarine-based deterrence off the European coast, along with some rather symbolic freefall bombs in western Europe, the balance of risks and losses looks significantly different to how it did in 1985. But there is no idea in Europe of how to properly relink American and European security, what the burden-sharing within such an arrangement would look like, or what kind of capabilities the Europeans would have to increase on their own in order to change the stakes for Russia. Without an answer to these questions, Russian nuclear superiority over Europe will be a done deal."

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"Top ten foreign policy trends in 2019"

Mark Leonard und Jeremy Shapiro haben zehn außenpolitische Trends zusammengestellt, die das neue Jahr ihrer Erwartung nach prägen werden. "1. Trump takes control of US foreign policy (...) 2. The Democratic House impeaches Trump (...) 3. The North Korea “de-nuclearisation” process breaks down (...) 4. China applies to join the CP-TPP (...) 5. The Ukraine crisis flares up (...) 6. A global downturn triggers a financial crisis in Turkey (...) 7. Saudi Arabia reconciles with the US and Europe (...) 8. The WTO de facto collapses (...) 9. Populists begin a double movement (...) 10. Europe considers a digital tax (...) Bonus: Brexit neither succeeds or fails"

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"The 'European army', a tale of wilful misunderstanding"

Ulrike Esther Franke analysiert die aus ihrer Sicht von Missverständnissen geprägte Debatte über die Bildung einer Europäischen Armee und schreibt, dass viele Experten das Konzept am liebsten "begraben" würden. "Initially intended as a rallying point, the European army idea is thus becoming a liability. Many military and political experts have grown tired of the concept and would prefer to retire it quietly. But, as I argued in the latest episode of Sicherheitshalber, it is not enough for experts to reject the term and move on. (...) It would, therefore, be useful if politicians such as Macron or German Chancellor Angela Merkel could be more precise in their rhetorical support for the long-term vision of a European army: what do they want to achieve, and when? Such precisions would likely reveal that the French and the Germans already have significantly different interpretations of a European army which would be worth addressing. My sense is that the European army idea is similar in scope and ambition to the 'United States of Europe' or former US president Barack Obama’s 'Global Zero' (a world free of nuclear weapons). But, if the concept is a more substantive target for the current European defence procurement and coordination programmes, it is high time that European leaders explained what it would look like in greater detail."

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"Russia, Ukraine, and the battle for religion"

Der Konflikt zwischen Russland und der Ukraine hat sich nun auch auf die Religion ausgeweitet. Andrew Wilson berichtet, dass die orthodoxe Kirche der Ukraine auf einer Bischofskonferenz Schritte unternommen habe, um sich von der russisch-orthodoxen Kirche abzuspalten. "This is an event of potentially huge historical importance. It will add religion to language, war, and patriotism as factors consolidating Ukrainian national identity since 2014. Poroshenko thinks it will help sway his re-election in 2019. More than 12,000 of the Russian church’s almost 35,000 parishes are in Ukraine, and losing even a small number of these would be a terrific blow to Russia and to Vladimir Putin’s concept of a 'Russian world'. So catastrophic, in fact, that the Russian church is hardly likely to acquiesce quietly in the loss."

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"Berlin’s untenable foreign-policy strategic vacuum"

Josef Janning hält die deutsche Debatte über außenpolitische Strategien angesichts der Umbrüche in Europa und im internationalen System für "trivial". "Firstly, the European Union, though a principal framework of German policy, is more politically fragmented than ever, and lacks a stable centre. (...) Secondly, great power politics is transforming the multilateral system. (...) Thirdly, Europe’s and thus Germany’s neighbourhood has lost the fragile stability it once had. (...) The German strategic debate has yet to adapt to any of these challenges. Admittedly, neither Germany nor Europe has broken down under the pressure. But to take this as a guarantee for the future would be utterly naïve."

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"Strait to war? Russia and Ukraine clash in the Sea of Azov"

Andrew Wilson warnt, dass der Konflikt im Osten der Ukraine nicht an Land, sondern auf See neu eskalieren könnte. "The Sea of Azov plays host to the key Donbas ports of Mariupol and Berdiansk. Mariupol itself is indeed known across the world: Russian-backed forces seized it in bitter fighting in 2014, but later relinquished it. Mariupol has since become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance. But Russia is now increasingly militarising the Sea of Azov in a series of moves that could have implications not only for maritime trade and supplies into Ukraine, but also for the ongoing land war in eastern Ukraine. The UN may soon need to take steps to stabilise the region."

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"Germany’s defence policy: still living in dreamland"

Nach Ansicht von Ulrike Esther Franke hat Deutschland seinen Platz in der internationalen Gemeinschaft aus sicherheitspolitischer Perspektive immer noch nicht gefunden. "Seventy-three years after the end of the second world war, and twenty-eight years after German reunification, it remains unclear what role Germany wants to and can play internationally. (...) International observers may not realise that in Germany, a self-congratulatory mood suffuses the air whenever discussion arises about the country’s role in European security and defence. The official German narrative, which is widely believed in government ministries (or at least propagated by them), is that ever since the Kosovo war in the late 1990s, Germany has been slowly but steadily emerging as an engaged and reliable actor on the international scene. (...) Even as a German I have been surprised by this narrative’s prevalence. Because outside Germany, observers are considerably less convinced. In fact, there is more than enough disappointment to go around, and the story told sounds quite different."

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"Mad maximalism: The fight to dislodge Iran from Syria"

Die US-Regierung und ihre Verbündeten im Nahen Osten verfolgten im syrischen Krieg mittlerweile das vorrangige Ziel, den Iran aus dem Land zu vertreiben, schreibt Julien Barnes-Dacey. Die "maximalistische" Forderung eines kompletten Abzugs dürfte seiner Ansicht nach jedoch auf ebenso harten Widerstand stoßen und könnte den Konflikt ausweiten. "Averting such escalation now requires some form of implicit accommodation with Iran. Given that perceptions shape reality, Tehran will not budge in Syria so long as its opponents aspire to impose a complete defeat upon it. Despite the growing tensions, this accommodation may still be feasible – so long as expectations are realistically lowered by delinking immediate priorities from the maximalist ambition of a full Iranian withdrawal. For the United States and Israel, core security interests do not require that Syria be cleared of every last Iranian. Instead, they require a way to sufficiently curtail Iran’s presence, particularly along Israel’s immediate border. From its perspective, Tehran might benefit from an arrangement that does not threaten its wider position alongside Assad and that avoids costly escalation."

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"Order from chaos: Stabilising Libya the local way"

Tarek Megerisi hält die bisherige westliche Strategie des "leichten Fußabdrucks" in Libyen für gescheitert und empfiehlt stattdessen einen Ansatz, der die Kooperation mit lokalen Akteuren in den Vordergrund rückt. "Libya needs a wider stabilisation strategy than is currently in place. This renewed strategy should aim to create a virtuous cycle by locking in gains made in governance and service delivery, enabling economic recovery, and assisting a move towards greater security and more meaningful and effective political processes. The ineffectual GNA and corrupt legacy of the Gaddafi years mean that the best way to achieve this comes from local actors, be they municipalities, state-owned companies, or private sector initiatives. This wider strategy will need to be responsive to the structural economic flaws of the Libyan state which hamper stabilisation and encourage destructive, destabilising politics."

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Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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