US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

European Council on Foreign Relations


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"Friends in deed: How the EU and the Quad can promote security in the Indo-Pacific"

Die EU sollte den Quadrilateralen Sicherheitsdialog (kurz: Quad), bestehend aus Australien, Indien, Japan und den USA, bei ihrem strategischen Denken und Handeln stärker berücksichtigen, argumentiert Manisha Reuter. "For Europe (…) the Quad could serve as an effective docking point for the EU to engage in the region, allowing the diversification of relationships with like-minded partners in the Indo-Pacific that many Europeans are now looking for. (…) In a period of growing geopolitical rivalry and tensions, the EU and the Quad have a clear opportunity to demonstrate a shared comprehensive commitment to security, stability, and climate based on shared interests and standards. They should now begin to work together more closely to reach their joint potential."

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"Direction of force: The EU's Strategic Compass"

Die Anforderungen an das militärische und zivile Krisenmanagement der EU seien in den vergangenen Jahren stetig gestiegen, argumentiert Jana Puglierin. Es fehle dem Staatenbund jedoch an den notwendigen Mitteln und dem politischen Willen, gemeinsam zu handeln. "While the EU has strengthened its operational structures and capabilities on paper, its member states have made little use of them. Today, there are far fewer missions and operations under the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) than there were at the CSDP's inception. (…) (T)he EU must reorganise its approach to crisis management and, consequently, its level of ambition. Nothing would be worse for the bloc's credibility than widening the already-huge gap between rhetorical ambition and the reality of EU defence."

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"How Germany's Greens could spell the end for the Franco-German fighter jet"

Ein Wahlerfolg der Partei Bündnis 90/Die Grünen bei der Bundestagswahl 2021 könnte das Ende für das deutsch-französisch-spanische Prestigeprojekt Future Combat Air System (FCAS) bedeuten, prognostiziert Rafael Loss. "While Germany's Greens 'agree in principle' that the next generation of military technologies should be co-developed with France to strengthen European sovereignty, they, too, clash with Paris on export restrictions, and have blasted the current German government for buckling under French pressure. More than regulations, however, machine autonomy and its nuclear role could lead the Greens to pull the plug on FCAS if they enter the next German government."

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"A decade of death and ruin: How Europe can create breathing space in Syria"

Wie könnte die EU zu einer Stabilisierung Syriens beitragen? Julien Barnes-Dacey gibt folgende Empfehlungen: "To begin to address this situation, European governments need to put Syria back on their own collective agenda and to recalibrate their approach to the crisis. (…) But Europeans also need to do more to expand on-the-ground support channels. While the Assad regime is the primary cause of Syria's collapse, Europeans need to more honestly grapple with the reality of his survival and should recognise the humanitarian and strategic value of strengthening Syrian society's ability to carve out some breathing space and to advance incremental change from within as part of a longer-term vision of change. (…) Europeans should now prioritise issues such as humanitarian and stabilisation access, including the renewal of the UN resolution authorising cross-border aid flows into Idlib, local governance mechanisms, and the plight of detainees."

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"Useful enemies: How the Turkey-UAE rivalry is remaking the Middle East"

Asli Aydıntaşbaş und Cinzia Bianco beleuchten die Auswirkungen der jahrzehntelangen Rivalität zwischen der Türkei und den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten auf den Nahen Osten und Nordafrika. Auch Europa werde in diesen Machtkampf hineingesogen. "Turkey and the UAE have engaged in a series of proxy political-military conflicts between the Horn of Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Beyond this, their rivalry plays out in the halls of Washington and Brussels, the global media discourse, the energy industry, and, lately, ports and the high seas. (...) In fact, both aim to extend their influence over Europe's neighbourhood in a way that is deeply problematic for European interests."

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"How city governments can help revitalise the multilateral system"

Städten sollte bei der Bekämpfung globaler Herausforderungen und der Gestaltung der internationalen Ordnung eine wichtigere Rolle eingeräumt werden, findet David Koranyi. "A modern multilateral system should go beyond the current ad hoc practices for engaging with cities, and should create permanent structures that allow them to interact with international actors such as multilateral organisations, international financial institutions, and other states. (…) Cities have the untapped potential to help address many of the biggest challenges we face. Ultimately, neither multilateral organisations nor subnational governance can thrive without collaborating with and support from national leaders."

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"Not getting away with murder: How Europeans can shape US-Saudi diplomacy"

Europa sollte der Versuchung widerstehen, die aktuell angespannte Beziehung zwischen den USA und Saudi-Arabien auszunutzen, empfiehlt Cinzia Bianco. "Instead, Europeans should closely coordinate among themselves and with the US to make the most of the post-Trump shift in Saudi foreign policy. Like the US, Europe needs to press Saudi Arabia to take constructive steps to strengthen its relations with its Western partners. (…) On foreign policy, they should press Riyadh to support de-escalation and diplomacy in conflicts across the region. (…) To prepare the ground for regional security talks, Europeans should work with the US to provide diplomatic engagement and security guarantees that address this concern."

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"Yemen in the Biden era: How Europe and the US can press for peace"

Die USA und Europa sollten ihre diplomatischen Bemühungen im Jemen verstärken und Druck auf die Huthi-Bewegung ausüben, wieder an den Verhandlungstisch zurückzukehren, empfiehlt Raiman Al-Hamdani. "This approach should be accompanied by an immediate humanitarian surge, including in Houthi-held areas, given the spectre of famine that now hangs over the country, with more than 80 per cent of the country in need and huge UN funding shortfalls. As part of this European actors and the US must push for more focused efforts to protect humanitarian flows, particularly given ongoing Houthi violations even when aid gets through the Saudi blockade."

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"Italy and defence under Draghi: A to-do list"

Karolina Muti und Arturo Varvelli argumentieren, Italien könnte in der europäischen Verteidigungspolitik eine zentrale Rolle spielen, "(…) if it avoids getting distracted by its internal political tribulations. (…) Rome could act both as a link with Washington, which is searching for a new privileged European partner after Brexit; as an important centre of gravity for the EU's Mediterranean policy; and as a point of contact not only for Berlin and Paris, but also for those EU partners outside the Franco-German partnership that want to find like-minded partners on crucial matters."

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"Dead-end pragmatism: Germany's Russia strategy after Merkel"

Wie wird die deutsche Außenpolitik nach dem Ende der Kanzlerschaft von Angela Merkel aussehen? Gustav Gressel gibt eine Einschätzung: "For decades, German foreign policy has been plagued by a failure to address the security implications of trade and investment relations with Russia and China, as well as resilience deficits, particularly in the areas of defence, counter-intelligence, and financial oversight (…). Laschet seems unlikely to change things for the better. (…) Germany after Merkel will be less stable in its foreign policy, and even less reliable."

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"What Germany's new cyber security law means for Huawei, Europe, and NATO"

Mit dem Entwurf zum IT-Sicherheitsgesetz 2.0 habe Berlin eine finale Entscheidung bezüglich des Zugangs Huaweis zum deutschen 5G-Netz auf die lange Bank geschoben und sich nicht eindeutig genug positioniert, findet Beryl Thomas. Dies würde auch auf die NATO Auswirkungen haben: "With Germany seeking to shore up and encourage America's recommitment to the organisation, the decisive indecisiveness it has adopted on Huawei is a step backwards in re-engaging with Washington. (…) Should the German government fail to take concrete action to block Huawei from its networks, the new law will put Germany at odds with key allies on an issue that has deep implications for security, defence, and the economy."

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"The geopolitics of the European Green Deal"

Der Europäische Grüne Deal werde tiefgreifende geopolitische Auswirkungen haben - für einige Partner der EU jedoch vermutlich nicht nur positive, prognostizieren Mark Leonard, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Jeremy Shapiro, Simone Tagliapietra und Guntram Wolff. Das europäische Maßnahmenpaket "will affect the EU's geopolitical partners differently, depending on how they relate to the EU. Countries in the European neighbourhood, such as Russia and Algeria, will mostly feel the effect of changes to the European energy market and the European approach to energy security. Global players including the US, China, and Saudi Arabia will feel the impact more strongly through the Green Deal's effect on global energy markets and trade."

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"The UK and EU are heading for bad-tempered rivalry, unless we can avert it"

Timothy Garton Ash fürchtet, dass sich die Beziehungen zwischen Großbritannien und der EU nach dem Brexit spürbar verschlechtern werden. Es drohe eine "schlecht gelaunte Rivalität" mit endlosen Verhandlungen. "After Brexit, Britain and the European Union face the Gore Vidal trap. As the waspish American writer once said: “It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail.” There is now a powerful political logic pushing both sides to make the relative failure of the other the measure of their own success. (…) you may object, surely the negotiations are over. We have a deal. Brexit is done. Well, think again. For years ahead, Britain will be in a state of permanent negotiation with the EU. The Johnson government said the choice came down to being 'Australia or Canada' but, in fact, we will be more like Switzerland, which endures endless rounds of nitpicky negotiations with the EU, punctuated by fits of retribution from Brussels. To be sure, Britain will be a Greater Switzerland with rockets, but the dilemma is fundamentally the same."

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"Russia’s relative resilience: Why Putin feels vindicated by the pandemic"

Obwohl die Corona-Pandemie auch Russland getroffen habe, sehe sich die russische Führung gestärkt, berichtet Kadri Liik. "(…) the second wave of the pandemic is surging across Russia. It is worse than the first one in terms of the numbers of infected, the regional spread, and the burden it places on the country’s healthcare system, especially as concerns the provinces. But, due to the absence of a tough lockdown, its economic impact is less severe. And its political effect is almost non-existent – despite the political elites’ unusually high levels of exposure to covid-19, with more than one-third of Russia’s MPs and governors contracting the virus. Indeed, the narrative that prevailed during the first wave persists. As one well-connected analyst put it, the Kremlin appears to feel that 'things might be bad, but others have it worse – so, in relative terms, we are winning!' This sentiment is not conducive to selfless international cooperation or the search for the common good. Rather, it fosters a ‘wait and see’ attitude – an expectation that time is on Russia’s side and a better deal (whatever that might be) will be available once the dust settles."

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"Hostage state: How to free Bosnia from Dayton’s paralysing grip"

Majda Ruge bezeichnet Bosnien-Herzegowina in ihrer Studie als "Geiselstaat", dessen Fortschritt vom "paralysierenden" Dayton-Abkommen behindert werde. "Any reform of the Dayton arrangements, be it minimal or more ambitious, has always been a chicken and egg story. Constitutional reform is procedurally impossible without the support of a two-thirds majority in each ethnic group in state and entity parliaments. Yet these groups’ leaders cling to power by maintaining the status quo. (…) The problem is, therefore, one of agency and incentives: since domestic politicians are unwilling to enact reform, and the US and Europe are unwilling to push for an ambitious constitutional overhaul, what other options remain?"

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"Building back a better transatlantic alliance"

Auch Mark Leonard vom European Council on Foreign Relations erwartet, dass das transatlantische Verhältnis nach dem Amtswechsel im Weißen Haus vor ähnlichen Problemen stehen wird, wie in den vergangenen vier Jahren. "If Biden wants to reinvent American leadership for the twenty-first century, he will need to push Europe to become self-reliant. Biden has promised Americans that he will pursue unity and bring an end to a 'grim era of demonization'. He could do the same for Europe, and without any costs to American taxpayers, by bringing new pressure to bear on the countries that are undermining European unity from within – namely, Poland and Hungary. From day one, Biden should make clear to these countries’ governments that the road to the White House runs through Brussels. That would already make him a better advocate for European sovereignty than Trump was, and it would represent a big step towards implementing a new American grand strategy. There is a strong parallel between this approach and the debates about covid-19. The top post-pandemic priority is not to 'reconstruct' the status quo ante, but rather to use the crisis as an opportunity to fix the things we already knew were broken."

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"Do not expect a rush of arms sales to Iran"

Trotz des Auslaufens des UN-Waffenembargos gegen den Iran erwartet Ellie Geranmayeh, dass Teheran auch künftig Probleme haben dürfte, hoch entwickelte Waffen zu kaufen. "A broad range of political and financial problems are likely to prevent Iran from importing advanced weapons systems in the coming years. (…) No doubt, Moscow and Beijing will sign arms deals with Tehran – and perhaps even major ones, such as those involving the Russian S-400 missile defence system, which Iran is eager to acquire. Tehran may also seek to sign deals for battle tanks, fighter jets, surface-to-air missiles, and anti-radar missile systems – which can target surface-to-air defence systems, thereby putting the forces of the US and its allies at greater risk in the Middle East. However, given precedent and a series of political and economic restraints, it is unclear whether these deals would result in delivery in the near future."

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"Views from the capitals: Gas conflict in the eastern Mediterranean"

Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeiter des European Council on Foreign Relations in fünf europäischen Hauptstädten haben unterschiedliche Perspektiven auf den aktuellen Konflikt zwischen Griechenland und der Türkei zusammengetragen. "Tensions between Europe and Turkey continue to escalate across the eastern Mediterranean. Recent incidents between French, Greek, and Turkish naval vessels, as well as increased military deployments, have highlighted the risk of military confrontation between NATO members. Despite some mediation initiatives, Ankara has continued gas exploration activities in EU waters, while European divisions on the nature of their response have become ever more apparent. Reflecting on these divisions, ECFR offers the perspectives of five European capitals involved in the conflict in the eastern Mediterranean. The analyses explore the interests, strategies, and actions of the different state actors."

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"Disorder from Chaos: Why Europeans fail to promote stability in the Sahel"

In seiner Analyse der europäischen Initiativen in den Ländern der Sahelzone schreibt Andrew Lebovich, dass Europa angesichts der sicherheitspolitischen Probleme in der Region zunehmend auf kurzfristige Lösungen setze und die eigentlich notwendigen Governance-Reformen vernachlässige. "So far, there has been only limited progress on reinforcing the importance of governance in international frameworks for the Sahel. And these newer initiatives may even make it harder for concerted governance efforts to succeed. More specifically, they present three risks. Firstly, they risk focusing primarily on security; and while this is no doubt essential, any approach to security in the region must also be balanced with medium- and long-term goals. The second risk is that, where governance has been taken into account or more fully integrated into operations, these new initiatives generally focus on the return of state powers without paying sufficient attention to preventing a repeat of past governance problems. Finally, with France continuing to have a dominant military and political role in the region, there remains tension over initiatives and programmes that are French-driven and have little input from the country’s partners – even as French officials try to create greater burden sharing and discussion around these initiatives."

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"The big engine that might: How France and Germany can build a geopolitical Europe"

Jana Puglierin und Ulrike Esther Franke erläutern in diesem Policy Brief, wie Deutschland und Frankreich die EU in einen geopolitisch relevanten Akteur verwandeln könnten. "The covid-19 crisis appears to have brought about a turnaround in the situation, as the need for a European reconstruction fund has forced Berlin to break out of its EU paralysis – with France’s help. Europeans must use the momentum created by the Franco-German agreement on the fund to give the EU a stronger voice in foreign and security policy. Given that summits in Brussels now focus predominantly on internal EU policy, France and Germany should lose no time in pushing other member states towards greater cohesion on foreign policy. Together, France and Germany have all that they need: the south and the east, the ambition and the pragmatism, and the coalition potential."

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"A return to Africa: Why North African states are looking south"

Anthony Dworkin erläutert in diesem Policy Brief, warum die nordafrikanischen Staaten ihre sicherheitspolitischen und wirtschaftlichen Interessen zunehmend auch in Subsahara-Afrika verfolgen. Diese Entwicklung betreffe auch die EU: "North Africa’s 'return to Africa' has been a striking feature of the region’s foreign policy in recent years. (…) The EU should take account of the complex nature of North African engagement with sub-Saharan Africa in its relations with the continent. Firstly, it will get better results from its cooperation with North African countries on migration if it understands the African context of its partners’ policies. (…) In the field of security, the EU and its member states should welcome signs that Algeria is re-engaging in the Sahel and encourage it to build links with the G5 Sahel and to contribute actively to stabilisation and development. The EU should also be prepared to step up its involvement in efforts to resolve the Nile dam dispute if the current round of talks falters. Europe may be better able to present itself as a neutral power than the US, which is seen as close to Egypt. As the EU looks to deepen its relationship with Africa, it should naturally seek to coordinate where possible with North African continental initiatives. Commercial ties between Maghreb countries and the Sahel could help European objectives of promoting stability."

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"Europe’s pandemic politics: How the virus has changed the public’s worldview"

Ivan Krastev und Mark Leonard haben in diesem Policy Brief die Auswirkungen der Coronakrise auf die politischen Anschauungen der europäischen Öffentlichkeit analysiert. In der Zusammenfassung stellen sie fest: "As covid-19 raged, speculation grew that the crisis would restrengthen public support for the state; faith in experts; and both pro- and anti-Europeanism. New research reveals these all to be illusions. Instead, the crisis has revolutionised citizens’ perceptions of global order – scrambling the distinctions between nationalism and globalism. One group – the DIYers – sees a nineteenth-century world of every nation for itself; the New Cold Warriors hear echoes of the twentieth century and look to Trump’s America to defend them from China; the Strategic Sovereigntists foresee a twenty-first-century world of blocs and regions. This last group are the largest and represent a new form of pro-European who believe Europe will need to support its own sovereignty through joint foreign policy, control of external borders, and relocalised production. This moment represents a new opportunity for European cooperation – but the continent’s leaders must make the case carefully to avoid provoking a backlash of reintensfied Euroscepticism. Rather than a 'Hamilton moment' of proto-federalisation, we are instead living through a 'Milward moment' of strong nation state identities searching for protection in a dangerous world."

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"Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics"

Ellie Geranmayeh empfiehlt der europäischen Diplomatie in diesem Kurzdossier, den Dialog mit Iran nach den US-Präsidentschaftswahlen im November wieder aufzunehmen. In ihrer Analyse beschäftigt sie sich eingehend mit der Dynamik der iranischen Machtstrukturen, die im diplomatischen Prozess ihrer Ansicht nach viel stärker beachtet werden sollten. "Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far. Three main power blocs compete to influence Iran’s supreme leader, including the 'modernisers', who were instrumental in building the case internally for the nuclear deal. The US 'maximum pressure' campaign has placed them on the back foot. Improving the economy remains the most pressing issue in Iran. Without a Western economic offer, the other two power blocs – the conservative 'Principlists' and IRGC-linked 'securocrats' – will continue their recent ascendancy and press for a confrontational 'maximum resistance' response. Immediately after the US presidential election, Europeans should embark on shuttle diplomacy with Washington and Tehran to agree an interim deal on the nuclear issue. This could also strengthen modernisers ahead of Iran’s own presidential race in 2021."

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"After covid: Resetting Europe-Africa relations for mutual benefit"

Die Coronakrise sollte von Europa für eine Bestandsaufnahme der europäischen Beziehungen zu Afrika genutzt werden, schreibt Andrew Lebovich. "Ideas abound for how the future post-covid relationship could look: the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes recently co-sponsored a fruitful and wide-ranging event addressing this question, while ECFR turned one of its own Quarantimes debates over to the issue, led by ECFR senior policy fellow Susi Dennison and AU lead representative for partnerships with Europe, Carlos Lopes. Both discussions concluded that covid should impel both parties towards renewed careful and close cooperation. Importantly, they also made clear that the crisis should lead to a major reset to benefit both parties. (…) However it pans out, the economy will necessarily be part of future Africa-Europe considerations. Lopes was clear in this when he warned that the main impact of covid in Africa will be economic, point out that many African economies face a fragile macroeconomic picture globally and enjoy only limited ability to cope with increased fiscal pressure. (…) Moving beyond developmental approaches also involves promoting and supporting industrial growth and the management of African economies and politics in ways that work for African nations and citizens – and must be a linchpin of any EU-Africa agreement in the future."

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"A new Gaza: Turkey’s border policy in northern Syria"

Asli Aydintasbas zufolge ist Ankara derzeit dabei, in der von türkischen Truppen und deren Verbündeten besetzten nordsyrischen Grenzregion ein zweites "Gaza" zu schaffen. "For decades, Turkish leaders pledged that their country would never pursue any sort of territorial expansion – presiding as they did over a modern nation-state built upon the ashes of a vast empire. They considered Turkey’s borders to be sacrosanct. But, now, the country controls a stretch of Syria along its southern border that effectively expands Turkish rule. This sudden experiment in social engineering beyond Turkey’s borders reflects a quiet revolution in Turkish foreign policy. And it presents major challenges that, ultimately, may affect Turkey’s ability to control this area or pursue its broader goals in Syria. (…) This paper examines the objectives and implications of Ankara’s creation of the safe zone. It analyses how the evolution of Turkish policy on northern Syria has shaped Ankara’s relations with Kurdish-run areas and Idlib, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s domestic narrative, life in the safe zone, and the prospects that Turkey will maintain a presence in the area in the long term. The paper then explores the five key challenges Turkey faces in the safe zone. Finally, it makes a set of recommendations for Europe’s approach to engaging with Turkey in northern Syria, in line with European concerns, interests, and principles."

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"How to repair multilateralism after covid-19"

Anthony Dworkin rät den Europäern, das multilaterale System angesichts der Rivalität zwischen den USA und China zu schützen und dabei neue Verbündete zu suchen. "For Europeans, the manoeuvring around the WHO repeats a pattern that is becoming all too familiar: the US turns its back on or attacks multilateral institutions, while China attempts to shape the system around values and interests that Europeans do not share. Most European governments believe that there are questions to answer about the international public health response to the coronavirus, and would like to see the system strengthened, but also want to avoid a divisive blame game at the height of a global pandemic. In this instance, Europe was able to score at least a minor diplomatic victory, winning consensus support for a compromise resolution at the World Health Assembly (…). This was the second time that the European Union has had some success in fostering international cooperation in response to the pandemic, following the pledging conference to raise money for global health that it organised two weeks ago. But these limited successes should not blind Europe to the scale of the challenge that remains in trying to restore an effective and cooperative international response. (…) The EU will find allies around the world who are eager to work in a more cooperative way – but any effort to repair the international system will also need a strategy to deal with the US-China standoff."

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"The meaning of systemic rivalry: Europe and China beyond the pandemic"

Die strategische Einschätzung Chinas hat sich in Europa aufgrund des chinesischen Auftretens in der Coronakrise spürbar verschoben, stellt Andrew Small in seiner Analyse fest. Aufgrund der aktuellen Krisensituation sei eine unmittelbare Wende der europäischen China-Politik zwar nicht zu erwarten, langfristig werde sich die Haltung der EU gegenüber Peking jedoch ändern. "In recent weeks, Europe’s interactions with China have been bruising but clarifying. Long-held assumptions about Beijing’s behaviour and intentions towards Europe were already creaking under pressure; they have now collapsed altogether. European officials and analysts have become firmer in their hypotheses about issues ranging from the risks of closer Sino-Russian coordination to the Chinese party-state’s willingness to use its power to advance an ideological agenda hostile to European values. (…) In the short term, Europe’s priorities in its relationship with Beijing will remain highly conditioned by the pandemic itself. The need to deal with immediate health needs and to fix the economic situation will hang over bilateral dynamics for much of the rest of the year. China’s earlier recovery from the virus-induced recession will inevitably affect Europe’s calculations too. The cooperative agenda in areas such as climate change remains essential. Yet European leaders should be aware of the risks of exacerbating the same problematic dynamics with China that have been evident throughout the crisis."

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"A burning issue: How to restart the dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo"

Vessela Tcherneva erläutert, wie die EU aus der aktuellen Sackgasse im Dialog zwischen Serbien und Kosovo herausfinden könnte. "The EU can only break the deadlock in the dialogue if it takes a new course of action, one that runs along parallel technical and political tracks. This approach should involve parliaments and citizens in Serbia and Kosovo; stakeholders in the region such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia; the EU member states who are invested in the region – such as Germany and France, along with Italy, Croatia, Bulgaria, and Greece – as well as the US and the United Nations. Ultimately, it is the EU’s responsibility to normalise relations between Kosovo and Serbia in the long term. Therefore, the EU should set the principles of, and drive, the dialogue."

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"The post-coronavirus world is already here"

Der EU-Außenbeauftragte Josep Borrell erläutert in diesem Beitrag, vor welchen Herausforderungen die EU in der neuen geopolitischen "Post-Corona-Welt" stehen wird. "Once the sense of shock has passed, we must assess the consequences of this event, avoiding two pitfalls. Firstly, given the uncertainty surrounding this crisis, we must not draw hasty conclusions. Secondly, we must not let ourselves be overcome by shock, concluding too quickly that everything will change. In the history of human societies, major crises are always heralded by warning signs or events. And major crises usually have an accelerating effect on trends. This is why it would make more sense to look at the consequences of covid-19 from the point of view of how this crisis could magnify dynamics that are already at work. What are these dynamics? I can see three: - the future of globalisation and neoliberalism; - the evolution of global governance; - the resilience of the European Union and democratic European political systems when coping with serious and unforeseen risks. These three dynamics will shape the post-coronavirus world – a world which, to a certain extent, is already here."

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"How the coronavirus threatens a geopolitical Europe"

Die EU könnte aus der Coronakrise spürbar geschwächt hervorgehen, meint Nicu Popescu. Europa werde vor denselben geopolitischen Problemen stehen, allerdings mit weniger innerer Solidarität und internationaler Glaubwürdigkeit. "There is a risk that covid-19 will reinforce the most herbivorous foreign policy instincts of EU citizens and governments alike. Of course, among the key lessons of the crisis will be that states’ healthcare systems need more resources; that their economies need stimulus measures; that the EU needs to turn a blind eye to budget deficits; and that all countries need to engage in greater international cooperation to preventing, limit, and combat pandemics. (…) After the crisis, the EU will face the same geopolitical problems it did before. But, this time, it might need to tackle them with less internal solidarity and external credibility than it once had. To avoid this outcome, the EU and its member states need to devote greater attention and resources to saving their economies and boosting their healthcare capacity, while preserving enough political bandwidth and capital to establish a more geopolitical Europe."

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