US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

European Council on Foreign Relations


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29.09.2021

"The false promise of AUKUS"

https://ecfr.eu/article/the-false-promise-of-aukus/

Der langfristig größte Gewinner des kürzlich angekündigten Sicherheitsbündnisses "AUKUS" zwischen Australien, Großbritannien und den USA könnte China sein, argumentiert Mark Leonard. "In Washington and London, this deal to provide Australia with US-made nuclear submarines is being framed as one of the most significant strategic advances in decades, even though it has infuriated France. (…) It is in America's own long-term interest that the EU become more of a sovereign power capable of participating in the defence of shared Western values and interests. By humiliating France, the one EU member state that has openly embraced deeper engagement in the Indo-Pacific, the Biden administration has made this outcome less likely. (…) France, the UK, and the US may have generated headlines with moves that feel tactically savvy and emotionally satisfying. But China may turn out to be the strategic winner."

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21.09.2021

"Waves of ambition: Russia's military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea"

https://ecfr.eu/publication/waves-of-ambition-russias-military-build-up-in-crimea-and-the-black-sea/

Gustav Gressel beleuchtet die militärischen Aktivitäten Russlands im Schwarzen Meer und auf der Halbinsel Krim. "(…) Russia uses Crimea as a platform to militarily dominate the Black Sea and its littoral states. (…) Russia has modernised and expanded the Black Sea Fleet faster than any of its other fleets. (…) Even open-source satellite pictures reveal intensive work on several military bases and installations on the occupied peninsula. (As some of the publicly available pictures of these facilities are several years old, Russia might have already completed or expanded much of the construction and renovation work on them). (…) Russia's military infrastructure reconstruction outpaces any civilian development programme on the peninsula."

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16.09.2021

"Foreign and defence policy in the German election"

https://ecfr.eu/article/foreign-and-defence-policy-in-the-german-election/

Ulrike Franke analysiert die außen- und sicherheitspolitischen Positionen der im Bundestag vertretenen Parteien mit Blick auf die Bundestagswahl 2021: "The six parties currently in the Bundestag dedicate around 10-20 pages of their election manifestos to foreign and defence policy, with some of them covering EU policy in separate sections of these documents. (…) Broadly speaking, the parties appear to share an assessment of global challenges. (…) While the parties broadly agree on the overall situation, they differ on how to address these challenges, how active Germany and Europe should be in doing so, and what role military power has in this equation."

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13.09.2021

"Autonomous in Afghanistan: How the Europeans could have stayed after US withdrawal"

https://ecfr.eu/article/autonomous-in-afghanistan-how-the-europeans-could-have-stayed-after-us-withdrawal
/

Europäische Truppen hätten in Afghanistan bleiben sollen, argumentiert Mary Kaldor. "Rather than providing logistical support for attacks on Islamist fighters, their task would have been to support the efforts of Afghan security forces to protect Afghans from attack and to monitor and help to guarantee agreements at all levels. They could have contributed to the kind of civilian-led stabilisation that had previously been proposed by the EU Institute of Strategic Studies."

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03.09.2021

"The Afghan tragedy and the age of unpeace"

https://ecfr.eu/article/the-afghan-tragedy-and-the-age-of-unpeace/

Der internationale Truppenabzug aus Afghanistan werde keinen Frieden bringen, schreibt Mark Leonard. "The Taliban used their control of information to persuade their domestic enemies to surrender without fighting. The massive predicted migration flows from Afghanistan will provide a rich target for Belarus and other states that want to undermine Western democracies, with state-sponsored online trolls stoking fear and sowing division. At the same time, the US will try to re-establish its sway over Afghanistan by manipulating aid flows and access to the dollar. This is not war as we knew it, but it is not peace, either. Rather, the world has entered an age of unpeace, or perpetual competition among powerful states, with the US-China rivalry at its core. (…) The forever war is finally over. The age of unpeace has begun."

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02.09.2021

"Why Afghanistan was not a failure of European strategic autonomy"

https://ecfr.eu/article/why-afghanistan-was-not-a-failure-of-european-strategic-autonomy/

Europa wäre ohne die USA nicht in der Lage gewesen, den Afghanistan-Einsatz fortzuführen, kommentiert Ulrike Franke. "However, the current discussion taking place in Europe is misguided. Despite their shortcomings, the Afghanistan operation and withdrawal do not call into question European military capabilities. Nor do they represent a failure of the European Union's goal of 'strategic autonomy'. (…) The reason Europeans did not continue the Afghanistan mission without the US, and the reason why they did not secure the airport without the Americans, is that they did not want to, because it did not make sense for them. Over the years, we, as well as many American commentators, appear to have forgotten the essential fact that Europe's main motivation to send soldiers to Afghanistan was principally to support the US after 9/11."

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25.08.2021

"The capture of Kabul: What the Taliban takeover will mean for Iran's economy"

https://ecfr.eu/article/the-capture-of-kabul-what-the-taliban-takeover-will-mean-for-irans-economy/

Die faktische Machtübernahme der Taliban habe für das Nachbarland Iran große wirtschaftliche Folgen, konstatiert Esfandyar Batmanghelidj. "In particular, the role that Afghanistan plays in Iranian currency markets, and the status of Afghanistan as a primary destination for Iranian non-oil exports, suggest that Iran is set to pay an economic price for the Taliban's success. (…) Afghanistan has been an important source of hard currency for Iran, whose foreign reserves remain frozen due to American sanctions. (…) While some Iranian leaders may be celebrating the withdrawal of American forces, the Taliban ascendancy, in economic terms, serves to deepen Iran's economic isolation. Iran will find itself deprived of a convenient proximity to the foreign governments and international organisations that had an outsize presence in Afghanistan and to the significant financial flows that had buoyed the Afghan economy."

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19.08.2021

"Three lessons for Europe from the fall of Afghanistan"

https://ecfr.eu/article/three-lessons-for-europe-from-the-fall-of-afghanistan/

Jean-Marie Guéhenno bennent drei Lehren, die Europa aus dem Afghanistan-Einsatz ziehen müsse: "The first lesson is that a very limited foreign presence, combined with close air support for national forces, kept the Taliban at bay for several years and created a stalemate during which a more open society could gain strength. The exoskeleton provided by a limited foreign military presence enables a fragile army to stand its ground. (…) The second lesson concerns what went wrong in the US effort to build the Afghan army. (…) The third lesson for Europe from the Afghan experience concerns the timeframe of foreign engagements."

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26.07.2021

"Tunisia coup: What Europeans can do to save North Africa's only democracy"

https://ecfr.eu/article/tunisia-coup-what-europeans-can-do-to-save-north-africas-only-democracy/

Europa könne dazu beitragen, die Stabilität in Tunesien wiederherzustellen, argumentiert Tarek Megerisi. "(…) Europeans cannot afford to sit and watch from the side-lines as they have done in other moments of tumult in the region. They must move to protect Tunisia's democracy, turning the country's many crises into something positive that draws its divergent politicians back together. The alternative is to relinquish European influence as Tunisia topples into the political trench dug by its president. (…) European inaction will only help unmoor Tunisia as an island of stability and dim future prospects for positive political transformations. This could very well bring about an 'anti-democratic' domino effect in an already precarious region."

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20.07.2021

"Multilateralism's failure to tackle our biggest challenges is compounding them"

https://ecfr.eu/article/multilateralisms-failure-to-tackle-our-biggest-challenges-is-compounding-them/

Die internationale Staatengemeinschaft habe bei der Eindämmung der Corona-Pandemie versagt - mit weitreichenden Konsequenzen, kommentiert David McNair. "Africa finds itself in the grips of a truly devastating third wave of infections, with only 1.4 per cent of the continent’s population fully vaccinated. There will be a price to pay for this inaction even beyond the untold human cost. (…) The immediate knock-on effects, including for the West, will be severe. But this historic failure of multilateralism is also undermining the trust and incentives necessary for effective international cooperation on the other existential challenges of the day - most notably, climate change."

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15.07.2021

"Geo-tech politics: Why technology shapes European power"

https://ecfr.eu/publication/geo-tech-politics-why-technology-shapes-european-power/

Neue Technologien beeinflussten die internationalen Beziehungen, konstatieren Ulrike Franke und José Ignacio Torreblanca. "The European Union has for too long seen technology primarily through an economic lens, disregarding its implications for its partnerships and for its own geopolitical influence. If the EU wants to be more than a mediator between the two real technological powers, the United States and China, it will need to change its mindset."

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06.07.2021

"Four ways Europeans can help refocus NATO"

https://ecfr.eu/article/four-ways-europeans-can-help-refocus-nato/

Die EU könne bei der Reform der NATO eine zentrale Rolle spielen, analysiert Marta Dassù. "The first thing Europeans can do is to seek to retain American support for the alliance by making clear they recognise, and will respond to, today's shifting strategic priorities. (…) [W]hen faced with US-China 'extreme competition', to use Biden's formulation, Europe will not be able to remain neutral without paying a high price on the transatlantic front. (…) Thirdly, European NATO allies will have to take on more defence responsibilities in Europe and especially around Europe, given the United States' partial reassessment of its own direct role in the Mediterranean and in the Balkans. (…) The fourth and final point is that a successful NATO-EU relationship requires more clarity about what the EU means by its search for 'strategic autonomy'."

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02.07.2021

"After Barkhane: What France's military drawdown means for the Sahel"

https://ecfr.eu/article/after-barkhane-what-frances-military-drawdown-means-for-the-sahel/

Die von Präsident Emmanuel Macron angekündigte Umstrukturierung der französischen Militärpräsenz in der Sahelzone werde die Sicherheit in der Region nicht verbessern, konstatiert Andrew Lebovich. "As fewer forces in the region focus more strictly on counter-terrorism, and with a training and accompaniment approach that has so far failed to improve security and stability in the region, security will be even harder to come by. This is the case even as French forces continue successful counter-terrorism operations against jihadist leaders. Coordinated and clear policies are necessary now as France rearranges its military presence in the region."

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02.07.2021

"Greece in the eastern Mediterranean: Turning engagement into influence"

https://ecfr.eu/article/greece-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-turning-engagement-into-influence/

Griechenland verfolge im östlichen Mittelmeer zunehmend eine proaktive Außenpolitik, analysiert Vassilis Ntousas. "Developments such as the 2015 migration crisis - driven in part by armed conflicts in Syria and Iraq - demonstrated the need for Greece to pay closer attention to events in its wider south-eastern neighbourhood. (…) The key challenge for Athens is in turning its increased diplomatic presence into greater influence and more durable commitments. In this effort, Athens should remember that diplomacy in the eastern Mediterranean will be not a sprint but a marathon."

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18.06.2021

"Cooling-off: How Europe can help stabilise the Middle East"

https://ecfr.eu/article/cooling-off-how-europe-can-help-stabilise-the-middle-east/

Europa müsse mehr zur Förderung des Dialogs zwischen den Staaten im Nahen Osten beitragen, fordern Asli Aydıntaşbaş, Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco, Hugh Lovatt und Tarek Megerisi. "New talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia indicate a shift in favour of dialogue, as do conciliatory signals between Turkey and its rivals. (…) The current shift from hard to soft power manoeuvring has decreased friction between competing regional alignments, even if the openings remain fragile and regional actors are still seeking to edge out their rivals. Europeans now need to increase their efforts to sustain the diplomatic shoots breaking out if they are to help secure a more stable neighbourhood. (…) European support for these diplomatic tracks should acknowledge - and encourage - regional ownership and responsibility for de-escalating tensions."

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09.06.2021

"How to prevent Germany from becoming Eurosceptic"

https://ecfr.eu/publication/how-to-prevent-germany-from-becoming-eurosceptic/

Wie kann dem Vertrauensverlust der deutschen Bevölkerung gegenüber der EU entgegengewirkt werden? Mark Leonard und Jana Puglierin empfehlen: "Germany needs to build a new social consensus around its foreign policy. (…) Instead of putting forward a foreign policy focused on the sacrifices Germany needs to make, the government should begin with a patriotic account of how Germany can thrive in the next few decades. (…) German policymakers and politicians should talk less often about the fact that Germany has a 'special responsibility' in Europe because of its history, size, and location. They should explain how Berlin uses the EU level to increase its influence to enhance the wealth, prosperity, and security of the German public."

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14.05.2021

"Mediation nation: Iraq's new role in Iranian-Saudi talks"

https://ecfr.eu/article/mediation-nation-iraqs-new-role-in-iranian-saudi-talks/

Nussaibah Younis beleuchtet die Rolle Iraks als Vermittler bei den jüngsten Gesprächen zwischen Iran und Saudi-Arabien: "Leaks of direct talks between senior Iranian and Saudi officials in Baghdad in April have been a boon to Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. Middle Eastern states are more used to facilitating dialogue to tackle conflict in Iraq than to turning to Iraq to mediate regional disputes. Kadhimi, however, has built on the deep relationships he developed with the governments of Iran and Saudi Arabia in his years as Iraq's intelligence chief to position Iraq as a venue for discussions between these great rivals. Although the talks are a personal victory for Kadhimi, they have been facilitated by a confluence of regional and global shifts - and could just as easily be derailed by developments beyond Iraq's control. (…) Iraq's nascent steps towards acting as a regional mediator are positive for both the country and the region."

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23.04.2021

"A glimpse of the future: The Ever Given and the weaponisation of choke-points"

https://ecfr.eu/article/a-glimpse-of-the-future-the-ever-given-and-the-weaponisation-of-choke-points/

Filip Medunic beschreibt, wie der Zugang zu infrastrukturellen Knotenpunkten künftig als politisches Druckmittel eingesetzt werden könnte: "With geopolitical tensions rising, it is becoming ever more likely that states will weaponise these choke-points to coerce others into certain forms of behaviour. (…) In a future in which the weaponisation of network connections is a common way to achieve policy objectives, states will likely become more transactional and try to force changes in behaviour from others in exchange for the use of a platform or supply chain. (…) A better understanding of interdependency could help shape a framework of regulations that protects Europe's future security and prosperity."

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16.04.2021

"Friends in deed: How the EU and the Quad can promote security in the Indo-Pacific"

https://ecfr.eu/article/friends-in-deed-how-the-eu-and-the-quad-can-work-together-to-promote-security-in-
the-indo-pacific/

Die EU sollte den Quadrilateralen Sicherheitsdialog (kurz: Quad), bestehend aus Australien, Indien, Japan und den USA, bei ihrem strategischen Denken und Handeln stärker berücksichtigen, argumentiert Manisha Reuter. "For Europe (…) the Quad could serve as an effective docking point for the EU to engage in the region, allowing the diversification of relationships with like-minded partners in the Indo-Pacific that many Europeans are now looking for. (…) In a period of growing geopolitical rivalry and tensions, the EU and the Quad have a clear opportunity to demonstrate a shared comprehensive commitment to security, stability, and climate based on shared interests and standards. They should now begin to work together more closely to reach their joint potential."

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01.04.2021

"Direction of force: The EU's Strategic Compass"

https://ecfr.eu/article/direction-of-force-the-eus-strategic-compass/

Die Anforderungen an das militärische und zivile Krisenmanagement der EU seien in den vergangenen Jahren stetig gestiegen, argumentiert Jana Puglierin. Es fehle dem Staatenbund jedoch an den notwendigen Mitteln und dem politischen Willen, gemeinsam zu handeln. "While the EU has strengthened its operational structures and capabilities on paper, its member states have made little use of them. Today, there are far fewer missions and operations under the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) than there were at the CSDP's inception. (…) (T)he EU must reorganise its approach to crisis management and, consequently, its level of ambition. Nothing would be worse for the bloc's credibility than widening the already-huge gap between rhetorical ambition and the reality of EU defence."

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19.03.2021

"How Germany's Greens could spell the end for the Franco-German fighter jet"

https://ecfr.eu/article/how-germanys-greens-could-spell-the-end-for-the-franco-german-fighter-jet/

Ein Wahlerfolg der Partei Bündnis 90/Die Grünen bei der Bundestagswahl 2021 könnte das Ende für das deutsch-französisch-spanische Prestigeprojekt Future Combat Air System (FCAS) bedeuten, prognostiziert Rafael Loss. "While Germany's Greens 'agree in principle' that the next generation of military technologies should be co-developed with France to strengthen European sovereignty, they, too, clash with Paris on export restrictions, and have blasted the current German government for buckling under French pressure. More than regulations, however, machine autonomy and its nuclear role could lead the Greens to pull the plug on FCAS if they enter the next German government."

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17.03.2021

"A decade of death and ruin: How Europe can create breathing space in Syria"

https://ecfr.eu/article/a-decade-of-death-and-ruin-how-europe-can-create-breathing-space-in-syria/

Wie könnte die EU zu einer Stabilisierung Syriens beitragen? Julien Barnes-Dacey gibt folgende Empfehlungen: "To begin to address this situation, European governments need to put Syria back on their own collective agenda and to recalibrate their approach to the crisis. (…) But Europeans also need to do more to expand on-the-ground support channels. While the Assad regime is the primary cause of Syria's collapse, Europeans need to more honestly grapple with the reality of his survival and should recognise the humanitarian and strategic value of strengthening Syrian society's ability to carve out some breathing space and to advance incremental change from within as part of a longer-term vision of change. (…) Europeans should now prioritise issues such as humanitarian and stabilisation access, including the renewal of the UN resolution authorising cross-border aid flows into Idlib, local governance mechanisms, and the plight of detainees."

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15.03.2021

"Useful enemies: How the Turkey-UAE rivalry is remaking the Middle East"

https://ecfr.eu/publication/useful-enemies-how-the-turkey-uae-rivalry-is-remaking-the-middle-east/

Asli Aydıntaşbaş und Cinzia Bianco beleuchten die Auswirkungen der jahrzehntelangen Rivalität zwischen der Türkei und den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten auf den Nahen Osten und Nordafrika. Auch Europa werde in diesen Machtkampf hineingesogen. "Turkey and the UAE have engaged in a series of proxy political-military conflicts between the Horn of Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Beyond this, their rivalry plays out in the halls of Washington and Brussels, the global media discourse, the energy industry, and, lately, ports and the high seas. (...) In fact, both aim to extend their influence over Europe's neighbourhood in a way that is deeply problematic for European interests."

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15.03.2021

"How city governments can help revitalise the multilateral system"

https://ecfr.eu/article/how-city-governments-can-help-revitalise-the-multilateral-system/

Städten sollte bei der Bekämpfung globaler Herausforderungen und der Gestaltung der internationalen Ordnung eine wichtigere Rolle eingeräumt werden, findet David Koranyi. "A modern multilateral system should go beyond the current ad hoc practices for engaging with cities, and should create permanent structures that allow them to interact with international actors such as multilateral organisations, international financial institutions, and other states. (…) Cities have the untapped potential to help address many of the biggest challenges we face. Ultimately, neither multilateral organisations nor subnational governance can thrive without collaborating with and support from national leaders."

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04.03.2021

"Not getting away with murder: How Europeans can shape US-Saudi diplomacy"

https://ecfr.eu/article/getting-away-with-murder-how-europeans-can-shape-us-saudi-diplomacy/

Europa sollte der Versuchung widerstehen, die aktuell angespannte Beziehung zwischen den USA und Saudi-Arabien auszunutzen, empfiehlt Cinzia Bianco. "Instead, Europeans should closely coordinate among themselves and with the US to make the most of the post-Trump shift in Saudi foreign policy. Like the US, Europe needs to press Saudi Arabia to take constructive steps to strengthen its relations with its Western partners. (…) On foreign policy, they should press Riyadh to support de-escalation and diplomacy in conflicts across the region. (…) To prepare the ground for regional security talks, Europeans should work with the US to provide diplomatic engagement and security guarantees that address this concern."

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03.03.2021

"Yemen in the Biden era: How Europe and the US can press for peace"

https://ecfr.eu/article/yemen-in-the-biden-era-how-europe-and-the-us-can-press-for-peace/

Die USA und Europa sollten ihre diplomatischen Bemühungen im Jemen verstärken und Druck auf die Huthi-Bewegung ausüben, wieder an den Verhandlungstisch zurückzukehren, empfiehlt Raiman Al-Hamdani. "This approach should be accompanied by an immediate humanitarian surge, including in Houthi-held areas, given the spectre of famine that now hangs over the country, with more than 80 per cent of the country in need and huge UN funding shortfalls. As part of this European actors and the US must push for more focused efforts to protect humanitarian flows, particularly given ongoing Houthi violations even when aid gets through the Saudi blockade."

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26.02.2021

"Italy and defence under Draghi: A to-do list"

https://ecfr.eu/article/italy-and-defence-under-draghi-a-to-do-list/

Karolina Muti und Arturo Varvelli argumentieren, Italien könnte in der europäischen Verteidigungspolitik eine zentrale Rolle spielen, "(…) if it avoids getting distracted by its internal political tribulations. (…) Rome could act both as a link with Washington, which is searching for a new privileged European partner after Brexit; as an important centre of gravity for the EU's Mediterranean policy; and as a point of contact not only for Berlin and Paris, but also for those EU partners outside the Franco-German partnership that want to find like-minded partners on crucial matters."

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09.02.2021

"Dead-end pragmatism: Germany's Russia strategy after Merkel"

https://ecfr.eu/article/dead-end-pragmatism-germanys-russia-strategy-after-merkel/

Wie wird die deutsche Außenpolitik nach dem Ende der Kanzlerschaft von Angela Merkel aussehen? Gustav Gressel gibt eine Einschätzung: "For decades, German foreign policy has been plagued by a failure to address the security implications of trade and investment relations with Russia and China, as well as resilience deficits, particularly in the areas of defence, counter-intelligence, and financial oversight (…). Laschet seems unlikely to change things for the better. (…) Germany after Merkel will be less stable in its foreign policy, and even less reliable."

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05.02.2021

"What Germany's new cyber security law means for Huawei, Europe, and NATO"

https://ecfr.eu/article/what-germanys-new-cyber-security-law-means-for-huawei-europe-and-nato/

Mit dem Entwurf zum IT-Sicherheitsgesetz 2.0 habe Berlin eine finale Entscheidung bezüglich des Zugangs Huaweis zum deutschen 5G-Netz auf die lange Bank geschoben und sich nicht eindeutig genug positioniert, findet Beryl Thomas. Dies würde auch auf die NATO Auswirkungen haben: "With Germany seeking to shore up and encourage America's recommitment to the organisation, the decisive indecisiveness it has adopted on Huawei is a step backwards in re-engaging with Washington. (…) Should the German government fail to take concrete action to block Huawei from its networks, the new law will put Germany at odds with key allies on an issue that has deep implications for security, defence, and the economy."

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03.02.2021

"The geopolitics of the European Green Deal"

https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-geopolitics-of-the-european-green-deal/

Der Europäische Grüne Deal werde tiefgreifende geopolitische Auswirkungen haben - für einige Partner der EU jedoch vermutlich nicht nur positive, prognostizieren Mark Leonard, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Jeremy Shapiro, Simone Tagliapietra und Guntram Wolff. Das europäische Maßnahmenpaket "will affect the EU's geopolitical partners differently, depending on how they relate to the EU. Countries in the European neighbourhood, such as Russia and Algeria, will mostly feel the effect of changes to the European energy market and the European approach to energy security. Global players including the US, China, and Saudi Arabia will feel the impact more strongly through the Green Deal's effect on global energy markets and trade."

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