US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

Brookings Institution


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"Don't give up on Myanmar"

Nay Yan Oo gibt Handlungsempfehlungen, wie die internationale Gemeinschaft Myanmar in der aktuellen Situation unterstützen könnte: "The outside world must help foster a return to a democratic path in Myanmar through a peaceful resolution because it has invested so much in the country in the past 10 years supporting the democratic transition. (…) The international community must work with the U.N. and NGOs to provide humanitarian aid to Myanmar. (…) The international community should start thinking about engaging with Myanmar's military after the current political turmoil ends. Whatever the outcome of the present crisis, it is likely that the Tatmadaw, as the country's strongest institution, will still be there. (…) Offering the Tatmadaw training on democracy, human rights, and leadership should be considered."

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"France and the UAE: A deepening partnership in uncertain times"

Frankreich und die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate hätten ihre bilateralen Beziehungen vertieft, analysieren Silvia Colombo und Adel Abdel Ghafar. "It is no surprise that the UAE [United Arab Emirates] and France have moved to deepen their ties as they are aligned on many issues in the Middle East and North Africa. In Libya, they have both supported Libyan National Army leader Khalifa Hifter over the government in Tripoli. (…) Among the most active sectors of the cooperation, defense stands out, thanks to the presence of French permanent military bases in Abu Dhabi, hosting more than 700 soldiers, since a 2009 joint defense agreement. However, French-Emirati bilateral relations are not limited to the military-industrial nexus."

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"Ukraine and NATO - don't ask, do"

Die Ukraine werde auch weiterhin auf ihre Aufnahme in die NATO warten müssen, prognostiziert Steven Piper. "Ukraine has already waited a long time. It will have to wait longer. That is unfair, but that is the reality. (...) NATO has no fixed checklist of what countries must do to qualify for a MAP [Membership Action Plan], that is, an aspirant for a MAP cannot present a fully checked scorecard and automatically claim one. The decision to bestow one ultimately is a political call by alliance members. What is unfair is that Ukraine today arguably has made as much progress toward meeting the criteria for membership as had other countries when they received their MAPs, for example, Bulgaria and Romania in 1999 or Albania in 2007."

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"The agonizing problem of Pakistan's nukes"

Marvin Kalb warnt davor, dass Dschihadisten in Pakistan die Kontrolle über Atomwaffen erlangen könnten. "The nation that has both nuclear weapons and a dangerous mix of terrorists was - and remains - Pakistan. (…) Pakistan is a looming problem with no satisfactory solutions. For Biden, no matter what policies he pursues, it remains a recurring nightmare, the stuff of a paperback thriller: a scary mix of terrorists who may one day be able to seize power and, with it, control over the nation's stockpile of nuclear warheads - all of this happening in a shaky, strategically-located country that was once an ally."

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"Remembering the Khobar Towers bombing"

Anlässlich des 25. Jahrestags des Anschlags auf eine Kaserne der United States Air Force in Saudi-Arabien beleuchtet Bruce Riedel die Folgen des Angriffs für die Beziehung zwischen Iran und den USA: "The plot was hatched two years earlier at the Sayyihdah Zaynab Mosque in Damascus, Syria, by three parties: Iranian intelligence, Lebanese Hezbollah, and a collection of Saudi Shia terrorist groups under various names including Hezbollah in the Hejaz. (…) Three years later as the evidence of Iran's culpability mounted, Clinton sent a letter to Iran's new President Mohammad Khatami calling on the reformist leader to bring those IRGC officials responsible for Khobar to justice or extradite them to Saudi Arabia. (…) As we expected, the Iranians denied any involvement in the bombing. It was a useful message to the Iranians that we were watching them closely. However, the letter had the unintended effect of intensifying the already tense relationship between Khatami and the hardliners in the Iranian government."

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"Strengthening international cooperation on artificial intelligence"

Künstliche Intelligenz (AI) sei eine transformative Technologie, die weitreichende geo- und sicherheitspolitische Implikationen haben werde, bemerken Joshua Meltzer und Cameron Kerry. "While the United States is the world leader in AI, China is catching up fast (and may lead in some areas) and other governments are expanding their own AI capacity. Rather than a zero-sum game, many such efforts can be additive, benefiting global welfare. (…) To foster AI policies that support development of beneficial, trustworthy, and robust artificial intelligence will require international engagement by the United States and cooperation among like-minded democracies that are leaders in artificial intelligence."

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"The fraught politics facing Biden’s foreign policy"

Thomas Wright meint, dass sich mit dem Wahlsieg des politischen Establishments um Joe Biden eine außenpolitische Chance biete, die durchaus verspielt werden könnte. "Biden cannot simply rely on competent technocratic management in foreign policy. His presidency may be the establishment’s last best chance to demonstrate that liberal internationalism is a superior strategy to populist nationalism. He must consider the strategic options generated by an ideologically diverse team, and he has to make big choices that are attuned to the politics of the moment, in the United States and around the world. Such a bold path is not one that a newly elected president with no foreign-policy experience could take. But he can. (…) Biden’s election is a reprieve from Trumpism. Whether that break is permanent or temporary depends very much on the choices that Biden makes. Biden must act with a degree of urgency and boldness to demonstrate that his brand of liberal internationalism effectively addresses the real concerns and anxieties Americans have about the world."

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"Threats to democracy in Africa: The rise of the constitutional coup"

John Mukum Mbaku macht auf einen bedenklichen politischen Trend in Afrika aufmerksam. Regierungen und Präsidenten vieler Länder sind demnach dazu übergegangen, Verfassungen zu ihren Gunsten zu ändern, um Amtszeiten zu verlängern oder die politische Opposition systematisch zu benachteiligen. "Changing the constitution to eliminate term and/or age limits for presidents and allow the incumbent president to unconstitutionally extend his mandate has been referred to as a constitutional coup. It is important to note that relatively weak institutions and the absence of a democratic culture have facilitated the ability of incumbents to manipulate constitutions in the countries named in this paragraph. The hope is that, as the level of democratic development improves in these countries, such constitutional coups will become a rarity."

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"What you need to know about the 'Quad,' in charts"

Tanvi Madan stellt die sogenannte "'Quad"-Allianz (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) zwischen den USA, Australien, Indien und Japan näher vor. "A decade and a half ago, these four countries came together organically to deal with the fall-out of the 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean. There was subsequently a working-level meeting of the grouping, and a maritime exercise in 2007. However, Quad 1.0 did not take off for a number of reasons, including China’s response. The Quad was revived in November 2017 and, since then, has met regularly at the working- and ministerial levels. (…) The countries do not mention China explicitly, but their words and actions indicate a coalition of the willing and capable that seeks to ensure a favorable balance of power, deter Chinese aggression and other negative behavior, and maintain a rules-based order that they see a rising China challenging through its actions."

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"The importance and opportunities of transatlantic cooperation on AI"

Joshua P. Meltzer, Cameron F. Kerry und Alex Engler setzen sich in dieser Studie für eine stärkere transatlantische Kooperation bei der Entwicklung von KI-Technologien ein. "The white paper talks to the importance of international cooperation. Specifically, the white paper observes that the 'EU will continue to cooperate with like-minded countries, but also with global players, on AI, based on an approach based on EU rules and values.' The white paper also goes on to note that 'the Commission is convinced that international cooperation on AI matters must be based on an approach that promotes the respect of fundamental rights, including human dignity, pluralism, inclusion, non-discrimination and protection of privacy and personal data and it will strive to export its values across the world.' The U.S. and the EU, as the world’s leading economies with strong ties grounded in common values, provide a strong basis for AI governance that can work for the EU and the U.S. and provide a model globally."

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"How the EU and Turkey can promote self-reliance for Syrian refugees through agricultural trade"

Kemal Kirişci von der Brookings Institution hat in einer neuen Studie untersucht, wie die Lebensumstände der syrischen Flüchtlinge in der Türkei mit europäischer Hilfe nachhaltig verbessert werden könnten. Dabei legt er das Hauptaugenmerk auf die Tatsache, dass bisher nur zwei Prozent der 2,2 Millionen Flüchtlinge im arbeitsfähigen Alter in formellen Arbeitsverhältnissen beschäftigt sind. "Thus far, most approaches to supporting refugees have focused on enhancing refugees’ employability, with limited success. Yet little attention has been paid to creating the economic conditions necessary for them to be employed. An innovative way to achieve sustainable self-reliance for refugees in Turkey would be for the European Union to offer Turkey trade concessions conditional to formal employment of Syrians. (…) A model for this approach already exists in the 2016 EUJordan Compact, in which the EU agreed to allow greater access to its market for goods produced by Jordanian companies employing refugees. This report argues that a version of this compact should be applied to the Turkish case and offers a set of political and regulatory changes that should be adopted by both the EU and Turkey."

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"The West must reassess its record on foreign intervention"

Constanze Stelzenmüller hält die bisher wirksamen Grundlagen des liberalen Interventionismus für schwer erschüttert. Insbesondere Europa müsse darauf bald eine Antwort finden. "Liberal interventionism was based on three assumptions: the U.S.’s status as guarantor of world order; Europe’s position at the Americans’ side; and the lack of any serious challenger to western dominance. Now, the U.S. is in withdrawal, Europe is divided and authoritarian powers are on the march. Yet retreat is not an option for Europe, with its porous borders and dependence on the mobility of goods and people. Problems have a habit of finding their way to the continent sooner or later. So it has no choice but to deal with them where they originate. Libya is only the start."

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"Vladimir Putin is resetting Russia’s Africa agenda to counter the US and China"

Mit dem Russland-Afrika-Gipfel in Sotschi habe Moskau den "Reset" seiner Afrika-Strategie bekräftigt, schreibt Landry Signé. Neben einer pragmatischen wirtschaftlichen Zusammenarbeit will Russland seine Beziehungen zum Kontinent auch durch militärisch-technische Kooperation und Soft-Power-Initiativen stärken. "These are all set out in the competitive context with the United States, the European Union, and China, among others, as the backdrop. (…) Russia offers a non-Western-centric option for diplomacy and support. In 2015, Russia created an alternative credit rating agency to counterbalance the influence that Western agencies had in deciding on the access to finance of the developing world. Russia uses techniques such as visa-free access to South Africans in order to differentiate itself from Western practices. And in a return to the peak of its Soviet influence days in the 1960s, education is becoming a key influence vehicle for Russia in African countries with everything from research support and scholarships to language schools and academic partnerships."

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"The geography of poverty hotspots"

Jennifer L. Cohen, Raj M. Desai und Homi Kharas von der Brookings Institution machen darauf aufmerksam, dass sich Armut sowohl in reichen als auch in ärmeren Ländern in bestimmten Regionen konzentriere. In ihrer Analyse identifizieren sie vier regionale Ansammlungen entsprechender "hotspots": "We find 840 poverty hotspots globally, home to 1 billion people, from a universe of 3,609 administrative units one level below the nation-state (districts, states, and provinces). 102 countries have at least one poverty hotspot. Immediately, four principle clusters of hotspots are visible: Tropical Africa (...) Tropical Latin America (...) Central-South Asia (...) Southeast Asia-Western Oceania (...). What can be done to ensure that these areas are not left behind? Solutions such as encouraging emigration or spatial targeting of growth policies are inherently difficult. If migrants leave, and in so doing, take scarce capital with them, they can depress their source areas even more. (...) An alternative is to accelerate the economic growth of poverty hotspots through targeted policies. (...) Our findings suggest that three types of spatially-targeted policies can make a difference: (1) those that improve human capital; (2) those that improve physical infrastructure and market connectivity; (3) those that enhance the resilience of regions to shocks such as like droughts, civil conflict, and natural disasters."

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"Why 5G requires new approaches to cybersecurity"

Tom Wheeler und David Simpson erklären in dieser Studie für die Brookings Institution, warum die Sicherheitsrisiken der kommenden 5-Netze besondere Schutzmaßnahmen nötig machen. "5G will be a physical overhaul of our essential networks that will have decades-long impact. Because 5G is the conversion to a mostly all-software network, future upgrades will be software updates much like the current upgrades to your smartphone. Because of the cyber vulnerabilities of software, the tougher part of the real 5G 'race' is to retool how we secure the most important network of the 21st century and the ecosystem of devices and applications that sprout from that network. (...) To build 5G on top of a weak cybersecurity foundation is to build on sand. This is not just a matter of the safety of network users, it is a matter of national security. (...) The purpose of this paper is to move beyond the Huawei infrastructure issue to review some of the issues that the furor over Huawei has masked. Policy leaders should be conducting a more balanced risk assessment, with a broader focus on vulnerabilities, threat probabilities, and impact drivers of the cyber risk equation. This should be followed by an honest evaluation of the oversight necessary to assure that the promise of 5G is not overcome by cyber vulnerabilities, which result from hasty deployments that fail to sufficiently invest in cyber risk mitigation."

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"Is Colombia’s fragile peace breaking apart?"

Das historische Friedensabkommen zwischen der Regierung und der FARC-Guerilla in Kolumbien stehe derzeit vor seinem bisher größten Test, berichtet Ted Piccone. "After an initial and largely successful phase of demobilization and disarmament, the country’s main actors are struggling with the more costly and destabilizing stages of reintegration of ex-fighters, soaring illicit drug production, rural underdevelopment, and reparations to victims. The most daunting challenge, however, is posed by the accord’s complex approach to truth, justice, and reconciliation. Recent events suggest that President Iván Duque Márquez, elected last June on promises to revise key provisions of the accord, is determined to undermine the pact’s central bargain of peace for conditional amnesty in order to satisfy his conservative coalition partners who never fully accepted the deal. And guerrillas who never signed up for or have since left the arrangement are pairing up with other criminal armed groups to destabilize a security environment already under growing strain from the influx of over 1.2 million people fleeing the crisis in Venezuela."

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"Why the West will survive Merkel’s departure"

James Kirchick schreibt, dass der angekündigte politische Rückzug von Bundeskanzlerin Merkel im Westen "Alarmglocken" ausgelöst habe. Er hält diese Reaktion für übertrieben, da die deutsche Rolle bei der Stabilisierung der westlichen Ordnung in den letzten Jahren häufig überschätzt worden sei. "Visions of the German chancellor as the only person standing between humanity and the apocalypse became fashionable after U.S. President Donald Trump’s election to the White House. But they were always overblown. Merkel herself knows that Germany — with its poorly-equipped military, deeply ingrained pacifism and historical hang-ups — is in no position to defend the West. There’s no question Europe and the world will survive her departure. Merkel, for all her rock solid stability, is ultimately replaceable. But her exit does add another element of uncertainty to an already highly unpredictable geopolitical state of affairs."

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"Israel’s coming war with Hezbollah"

Mara Karlin vom Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence meint, dass eine bewaffnete Eskalation des schwelenden Konflikts zwischen Israel und der Hisbollah nur eine Frage der Zeit sei. Aktuell sei zwar keine der beiden Seiten an einem offenen Krieg interessiert, dies treffe jedoch nicht auf die Akteure im Krisenherd Syrien zu. "A deliberate escalation by Israel or Hezbollah is unlikely to occur in the near term; an inadvertent one, however, is possible, as is an escalation courtesy of other actors currently tearing up the Levant, such as Iran, the Assad regime, or Russia. All three could benefit in different ways from such a conflict. Iran and the Assad regime could use it to distract from the horrific state of affairs in Syria while rallying regional support against Israel. The Russians could use a conflict to solidify their regional leadership role by brokering a cessation of hostilities and to further demonstrate their entrenchment vis-à-vis the United States. At a very tactical level, the narrowing battlefield in Syria almost surely will facilitate an inadvertent mishap among some combination of these actors. How they choose to respond will be crucial, but it is less predictable as the rules of engagement have become murkier."

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"The Education of Kim Jong–un"

Jung H. Pak, frühere CIA-Mitarbeiterin und Korea-Expertin am Center for East Asia Policy Studies der Brookings Institution, hat sich in diesem Essay eingehend mit dem Werdegang des nordkoreanischen Staatschefs Kim Jong-un seit dessen Machtübernahme im Jahr 2011 beschäftigt. "When the focus is on Kim’s appearance, there’s a tendency to portray him as a cartoon figure, ridiculing his weight and youth. Kim has been called — and not just by our president — 'Rocket Man,' 'short and fat,' 'a crazy fat boy,' and 'Pyongyang’s pig boy.' (...) However, when the focus is on the frighteningly rapid pace and advancement of North Korea’s cyber, nuclear, and conventional capabilities, Kim is portrayed as a ten-foot-tall giant with untold and unlimited power: unstoppable, undeterrable, omnipotent. The coexistence of these two sets of overlapping perceptions — the ten-foot-tall baby — has shaped our understanding and misunderstanding of Kim and North Korea. It simultaneously underestimates and overestimates Kim’s capabilities, conflates his capabilities with his intentions, questions his rationality, or assumes his possession of a strategic purpose and the means to achieve his goals. These assumptions distort and skew our policy discussions."

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"Development, self-interest, and the countries left behind"

Sarah Bermeo, Politikwissenschaftlerin an der Duke University, stellt fest, dass sich die internationale Entwicklungshilfe spätestens seit den Anschlägen vom 11. September 2001 vor allem am Eigeninteresse der wohlhabenden Staaten ausrichte. Die Verteilung der Hilfsgelder habe sich in den letzten Jahren entsprechend verschoben. "In the post-2001 period, donors focus more on countries from which they expect the biggest spillovers from underdevelopment: those that are poor, proximate, and populous. They also favor countries that send them higher numbers of migrants and imports. The impact of geopolitical concerns has become less significant during this time. This is consistent with an increased emphasis on development and with focusing efforts in countries where transmission mechanisms — whether due to proximity, movement of people, or movement of goods — are high. Donors also care more about effectiveness in recent years, conditioning the type of foreign aid on the quality of governance in recipient countries. (...) This turn toward development promotion in countries of interest has gone beyond foreign aid. The number of preferential trade agreements between high-income and developing countries has increased markedly in recent decades, often tied explicitly to development promotion".

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"America has military options for North Korea — but they’re all bad"

E. O’Hanlon erläutert die plausiblen Optionen eines amerikanischen Militärschlags gegen Nordkorea, die bereits von früheren US-Regierungen in Erwägung gezogen und nach eingehender Analyse aus guten Gründen verworfen worden seien. "A review of the plausible military options available to the United States underscores two central points. First, the Trump administration is not alone in thinking about them. Previous U.S. administrations, including Democratic ones, have done so too. Second, however, none of those options really hold water. The risks of escalation are not worth the potential benefits. (...) whatever their individual appeal, each of these options would appear to promise only mediocre effects against the North Korean threats that matter most to the United States. Let us hope the Trump administration understands as much, and that it is using its threats of military action to create a sense of urgency about the need for North Korean concessions rather than to signal looming attack."

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"Containing Shiite militias: The battle for stability in Iraq"

Nach dem von Premierminister al-Abadi offiziell verkündeten Sieg über den "Islamischen Staat" steht die Frage der künftigen Stabilität Iraks erneut im Raum. Ranj Alaaldin vom Brookings Doha Center erläutert in seiner Analyse, warum die Einhegung der schiitischen Milizen bei der Suche nach Antworten von besonders hoher Bedeutung sein wird. "In this Brookings Doha Center policy briefing, Ranj Alaaldin provides a strategy focused on helping Iraqis reduce the space in which Shiite militias operate by establishing an environment and culture of accountability. He recommends that the United States should shift resources away from the Iraqi political elite and toward the communal Shiite elements of state-aligned militias, tribes, and clerical figures. Second, international resources should help empower local actors such as Iraqi NGOs, humanitarian organizations, and civil society actors, which are better positioned to influence the militias to adhere to international norms. Third, as militias might fail in governance and administration, it is crucial to revitalize Iraqi state institutions and security forces so that it can provide basic services to civilians and revive the economy."

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"Why is Trump undoing decades of U.S. policy on Jerusalem?"

Mit der Anerkennung Jerusalems als Hauptstadt Israels hat sich US-Präsident Trump nach Ansicht von Shibley Telhami aus kaum überzeugenden Gründen von der bisherigen Nahostpolitik der USA abgewandt. Auch seine eigenen Zielsetzungen in der Region habe Trump damit untergraben: den Kampf gegen den islamischen Extremismus und die Zurückdrängung des Einflusses Irans. "Jerusalem is the perfect issue for Iran and Islamist militants to use to mobilize support against the United States and those who endorse its policies. (...) Sure, the Middle East is more divided today than it was then. Many Arabs are focused on their immediate tragedies; others may have a diminished connection to Palestine, or even to Jerusalem. But as the region has grown deeply divided, Jerusalem has remained a central symbol that transcends the divide. It remains a mobilizing issue even in a polarized environment: Even if Arabs don’t go out into the streets in consequential numbers, a declaration will play into the hands of those plotting in the basement."

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"Trump’s bet on Saudis looks increasingly dangerous, and the $110 billion payoff? Unlikely."

Bruce Riedel beklagt dagegen, dass Kronprinz Mohammed bin Salman den seit Jahrzehnten geltenden Konsens in der saudi-arabischen Politik zerstört habe. Saudi-Arabien werde künftig wahrscheinlich ein weniger stabiles Land mit einer impulsiven Politik sein. "The kingdom has always been a police state and an absolute monarchy married to a theocracy. But royal politics inside the family observed a certain decorum. If a prince or minister was removed he kept his honor and integrity, no one was humiliated. (...) Since the early 1960s, Saudi Arabia has been one of the most stable and predictable players in the Middle East. Aside from some terrorist threats, usually quickly eradicated by Muhammad bin Nayef, it has been a safe place to travel and invest. That all appears to be in doubt. Splintering the royal family is a dangerous approach. Arresting and perhaps even killing political opponents is not likely to encourage investors. Fanning sectarian violence is bound to fuel turbulence. A dangerous region is getting more volatile."

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"NATO at a crossroads: Experts offer bold ideas for enhancing Eastern European security"

Torrey Taussig berichtet über eine Veranstaltung des Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, bei der die beiden Experten Michael O’Hanlon und Steven Pifer über mögliche Modelle einer neuen europäischen Sicherheitsordnung diskutiert haben. O’Hanlon habe dabei die Weisheit einer fortschreitenden NATO-Expansion in Osteuropa hinterfragt und angesichts einer zunehmenden Feindseligkeit Russlands die Anerkennung einer neutralen Zone vorgeschlagen. "O’Hanlon outlined his proposal to lower tensions with Russia: a permanent zone of neutrality in which the currently non-aligned states—Finland, Sweden, Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, and Serbia (and perhaps other neutral Balkan countries) — will never join NATO or a Russian equivalent. In exchange for a halt to all future NATO expansion, the agreement would demand that Russia 'keep its hands off' the neutral countries, in O’Hanlon’s words, reach fair agreements on existing territorial disputes, and acknowledge these nations’ right to join institutions such as the European Union. If Russia reneges on its end of the bargain, O’Hanlon argues that little would be lost: The West could enact an even tougher stance against Russia and reopen the possibility of NATO membership for the neutral countries."

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"On foreign policy, Trump isn’t a complete disaster"

Trotz der verbreiteten Kritik am US-Präsidenten stellen David Gordon und Michael E. O’Hanlon fest, dass Donald Trump außenpolitisch einiges richtig gemacht habe. "Although there is certainly a lot to worry about in Trump’s approach to the world (leaving aside his domestic policies, a separate and equally serious subject), there are several hopeful signs. (...) First is the quality of his national security team—which Trump handpicked, to his credit. (...) The cruise missile strike in Syria in April was a proportionate response to an abominable action by the government of President Bashar al-Assad. (...) Trump has wisely chosen not to use military force in response to North Korean provocations, attempting instead to work with China to apply economic pressure. (...) Then there is the NATO Article 5 question. To be sure, Trump insults allies in ways we find off-putting at best, and often disturbing. But the recent outcry over his supposed abandonment of NATO has been badly overdone. (...) This president is not exactly our cup of tea when it comes to foreign policy. But he has shown some openness to advice, rationality and dialogue — and his critics should be careful about closing off all avenues of communication with an administration that is still feeling its way."

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"The $110 billion arms deal to Saudi Arabia is fake news"

Bruce Riedel bezweifelt, dass der im letzten Monat verkündete Waffendeal zwischen Saudi-Arabien und den USA tatsächlich zustande gekommen sei. Es gebe zwar Absichtserklärungen, aber keine rechtlichen Vereinbarungen. "I’ve spoken to contacts in the defense business and on the Hill, and all of them say the same thing: There is no $110 billion deal. Instead, there are a bunch of letters of interest or intent, but not contracts. Many are offers that the defense industry thinks the Saudis will be interested in someday. So far nothing has been notified to the Senate for review. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency, the arms sales wing of the Pentagon, calls them 'intended sales.' None of the deals identified so far are new, all began in the Obama administration."

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"Want a new counterterrorism strategy? Be careful what you wish for"

Eric Rosand und Alistair Millar warnen die US-Regierung davor, in ihrer neuen Anti-Terror-Strategie die sogenannten "soft tools" zu vernachlässigen, da erst diese eine wirklich nachhaltige Bekämpfung des Terrorismus bewirken könnten. "Yet it has been reported that the new counterterrorism strategy 'makes little mention of promoting human rights, development, good governance and other ‘soft power’ tools that Washington has embraced in the past to help foreign governments reduce grievances that feed extremism.' A counterterrorism strategy that fails to acknowledge that effectively reducing the threat of terrorism benefits and at times depends on these 'soft' tools and broader foreign policy efforts—whether to promote the peaceful resolution of political disputes and grievances, economic growth, development, good governance, or human rights and the rule of law—is unlikely to lead to a reduction in terrorist violence over the long term. While much of the international community seems to have recognized, based on lessons over the past decade, that 'we can’t kill or arrest' our way out of the terrorist threat—and that a broad and integrated set of non-kinetic tools need to be deployed alongside military and intelligence ones—the new administration seems to have skipped school."

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"Can lone wolves be stopped?"

Daniel L. Byman bezeichnet 2016 als das Jahr des terroristischen Einzeltäters. Die Taktik sei zwar ein Zeichen der Schwäche von Terrororganisationen, trotzdem werde die Bedrohung durch "Lone Wolf terrorists" künftig wohl weiter zunehmen. Dies gefährde auch die Beziehungen zwischen muslimischen und nichtmuslimischen Gemeinschaften im Westen. "Perhaps most worrisome, Lone Wolf shootings are becoming part of the terrorist zeitgeist and as such, feed on themselves. As seems to have happened with school shootings, where Columbine killers Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold created a model for other violent misfits, an idea of terrorist violence is hanging in the air, and that attracts a small group of individuals who might otherwise have turned their thoughts in another direction. If we focus only on casualties, Lone Wolves should remain of limited concern, however horrifying any individual attack might be. The trouble is that Lone Wolves are having a real, indeed a strategic, impact today by helping change the politics in the United States and Europe and, in so doing, are shattering the good relations between Muslim and non-Muslim communities so vital to counterterrorism and to liberal democracy in general."

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"Surprise! Trump’s foreign policy is turning out okay"

Trotz ihrer Kritik am Verhalten Donald Trumps sind Michael E. O’Hanlon und David Gordon der Ansicht, dass das sicherheitspolitische Team des US-Präsidenten durchaus überzeugend und vor allem beruhigend auftritt. "To be sure, it is far too soon to breathe a sigh of relief about this administration; Trump’s mercurial temperament has not abated since his inauguration. For whatever the reason, though, he has chosen a national security team that appears excellent — and that has already calmed many nerves around the world."

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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