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"The US just brokered another peace deal for Israel, this time with Sudan"


US-Präsident Trump hat am Freitag verkündet, dass Sudan als drittes Land in kurzer Zeit seine diplomatischen Beziehungen zu Israel normalisieren wird. "President Donald Trump announced Friday that Sudan has become the third country to normalize relations with Israel during the Trump administration, underscoring how the president’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East may prove to be the most significant foreign policy achievement of his first term. (…) At its core, then, the deal looks like a trade where the US and Israel give Sudan financial support in exchange for diplomatic normalization. (…) the deal with Sudan is arguably more significant. The UAE and Bahrain weren’t at war with Israel when they signed their agreements; Sudan and Israel were. That means while the first two pacts were normalization deals, this one with Sudan could potentially be described more accurately as a peace deal."

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"The 'ridiculous' failed coup attempt in Venezuela, explained"


Alex Ward hat mit dem früheren Navy SEAL Ephraim Mattos über die Hintergründe des gescheiterten Putschversuchs des US-Sicherheitsunternehmens Silvercorp in Venezuela gesprochen. "With Maracaibo and the seat of Venezuelan power secured, American helicopters would transport Maduro to the US, where he is wanted on drug trafficking charges. Juan Guaidó, the US-backed Venezuelan opposition leader who nearly 18 months ago launched a global movement to become the country’s new president, would finally take over. That was the plan, anyway. The actual operation that would end up taking place in May was less Michael Bay and more Keystone Cops. 'The whole thing was so ridiculous that it would never work,' former US Navy SEAL Ephraim Mattos, who was not involved in the plan but heard the details directly from the Venezuelans involved, told me. 'It was totally insane.' (…) some have dubbed Goudreau’s raid the 'Stupid Bay of Pigs,' a reference to the failed CIA-backed invasion of Cuba in 1961. The ordeal has become an embarrassment for both the Trump administration and Guaidó, with each fiercely denying any involvement with the raid. Here’s how it all came together, how it all fell apart, and what it all means for the future of Venezuela."

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"Video games don’t cause violent crime"


Matthew Yglesias weist auf eine andere Studie hin, der zufolge Videospiele unter jungen Männern sogar zur Reduzierung von Gewalt beitragen können. "(...) according to the best research available, a quasi-experimental study by Scott Cunningham, Benjamin Engelstätter, and Michael R. Ward, it’s just genuinely not the case that video games lead to violent crime. If anything, it’s the opposite: Time spent playing video games reduces the amount of time that young men can get into mischief. (...) The researchers believe the method is what criminal justice scholars call 'incapacitation' — if you are sitting on your couch playing video games you are, by definition, not out on the street making trouble. When it comes to ways to spend time that mainstream society finds uncontroversially wholesome, this mechanism is widely accepted. If you have teenagers doing summer jobs, attending after-school classes, or participating in recreational sports leagues, that keeps them off the streets and out of trouble. It happens to be the case that video games are a more stigmatized pastime than playing sports, but the basic mechanism is exactly the same. If you’re busy gaming, you’re not committing crimes. Gordon Dahl and Stefano DellaVigna used a similar methodology in an earlier paper to study violent movies and found the same thing."

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"'A nasty, brutal fight': what a US-Iran war would look like"


Die USA und der Iran scheinen sich auf einem stetigen Weg in den offenen Konflikt zu befinden. Alex Ward hat acht US-amerikanische Sicherheitspolitiker, Geheimdienstmitarbeiter und Nahostexperten nach ihren Prognosen für einen möglichen Kriegsverlauf gefragt. "The bottom line: It would be hell on earth. 'This would be a violent convulsion similar to chaos of the Arab Spring inflicted on the region for years,' said Ilan Goldenberg, the Defense Department’s Iran team chief from 2009 to 2012, with the potential for it to get 'so much worse than Iraq.' (...) In some ways, then, what comes after the war could be worse than the war itself. It should therefore not be lost on anyone: A US-Iran war would be a bloody hell during and after the fighting. It’s a good thing neither Trump nor Iran’s leadership currently wants a conflict. But if they change their minds, only carnage follows. 'The worst-case scenarios here are quite serious,' [Michael Hanna, a Middle East expert at the Century Foundation in New York,] told me."

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"George Soros and Charles Koch team up for a common cause: an end to 'endless war'"


Die beiden US-Milliardäre George Soros und Charles Koch, die in vielen politischen Fragen kaum übereinstimmen, haben den neuen Think-Tank "Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft" gegründet, der sich für ein Ende der "endlosen Kriege" der USA und der amerikanischen Interventionspolitik einsetzen soll. "Soros is, of course, widely hated on the right for his support of liberalized immigration and is frequently the target of anti-Semitic conspiracy theories. Koch, meanwhile, has come under fire for his contributions to the Republican Party and his opposition to climate policies. (...) 'The foreign policy of the United States has become detached from any defensible conception of U.S. interests and from a decent respect for the rights and dignity of humankind,' the institute argues in the initial statement on its website. It aims to promote 'ideas that move U.S. foreign policy away from endless war and toward vigorous diplomacy in the pursuit of international peace.' Soros and Koch don’t see eye to eye on much, but on this they’re in agreement."

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"Thousands of Algerians are protesting to force their ailing dictator to step aside"


Die Absicht des langjährigen Präsidenten Abdelaziz Bouteflika, bei den Wahlen am 18. April für eine fünfte Amtszeit anzutreten, hat in Algerien breite Proteste ausgelöst. Alex Ward erklärt die Motivation der Eliten, die weiter hinter Bouteflika stehen, und der Demonstranten, die den Abtritt des Präsidenten fordern. "Algeria’s horrific civil war, fought in the 1990s between the then-government and Islamist insurgents over a disputed election, was marked by torture, terrorist attacks, and other atrocities, and led to more than 200,000 deaths. And it still weighs heavily on the minds of many Algerians, leading many to prefer stability over anything that could potentially reignite violence, experts say. That, in part, has helped Bouteflika remain in power. He’s widely credited for helping his country curb the violence and bounce back economically after he took charge in 1999, lending him extra leeway from the populace. (...) Bouteflika’s coterie, though, has gained tremendous power and wealth during the authoritarian’s rule. After his 2013 stroke, elites in the political, military, and business communities helped run the country in Bouteflika’s name — not only to maintain their authority, but also because there is no consensus successor, experts say. (...) Public demonstrations against the government are extremely rare in Algeria, partly because of the regime’s brutal rule. But there are two main reasons why that has dramatically changed all of a sudden, experts say. First, the economy is in trouble. (...) Second, and more importantly, the population is angered that elites want an incapacitated Bouteflika to lead them again."

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"Why Democrats have no foreign policy ideas"


Zack Beauchamp findet es besorgniserregend, dass die US-Demokraten trotz ihrer Kritik an Präsident Trump nicht in der Lage seien, überzeugende außenpolitische Alternativen zu präsentieren. Nach Ansicht einiger Experten ist dies auch auf die mangelnde Qualität liberaler Thinktanks zurückzuführen. (...) I talked to a half-dozen people with experience in the liberal foreign policy world, ranging from congressional staffers to professors to former White House officials. Most of them pointed the finger at something that might not seem obvious: Think tanks. (...) The best progressive think tanks do excellent work on domestic issues. But in the national security space, most of what they produce is similar to policies produced by down-the-middle centrist operations. (...) No one seems to know how to overcome this. But there’s a clear consensus in liberal circles — even at the highest levels — that the lack of think tank firepower is a real problem."

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"Steve Bannon tried to destroy 'globalism.' It destroyed him instead."


Steve Bannon, der vor wenigen Tagen zurückgetretene Chefstratege im Weißen Haus, sei letztlich am Einfluss der von ihm vehement bekämpften "Globalisten" gescheitert, meint Zack Beauchamp. Ohne Bannon gebe es letztlich auch keine "Trump-Doktrin" mehr. "Trump is neither an ideologist nor a policy wonk; his feelings about the world have little in the way of connective tissue or workable implications. It’s up to others to turn these impulses into an agenda. Bannon had ideas for doing that. They were radical, and he worked — as he said — 'every day' to try to implement them. But he didn’t have much of a support network. (...) Now look at who’s on the other side — the people who want to channel Trump away from Bannon’s vision and toward a more typical approach to foreign policy. Kelly, McMaster, and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis are well-known for taking basically conventional stances on the big foreign policy issues. As a group, they’re strongly in favor of maintaining traditional American alliances, generally hostile to Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and skeptical of blaming Islam as a religion for jihadist terrorism. (...) The 'globalists,' as Bannon would call them, dominate the White House — the aides on Bannon’s side aren’t even close to their level of influence."

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"Blue America reaches out to the world, ignoring Trump"


Das von Demokraten regierte "Blaue Amerika" habe auf der Ebene von Bundesstaaten und Kommunen begonnen, in der Klimapolitik eine Art "Parallelregierung" zu bilden, berichtet David Roberts. "In recoiling from Trump, states, cities, and institutions are entering into closer cooperation. A coalition is forming, a Blue America, and at least on climate change, it is going beyond mere resistance to a more proactive role, negotiating with the international community on its own behalf, like a separate nation. It is, in foreign policy terms, a remarkable development — and while it seems to offer some near-term hope on climate change, it carries troubling implications for the ongoing stability of the country."

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"Democrats are falling for fake news about Russia"


Im liberalen politischen Spektrum der USA habe sich in der Debatte über die angeblichen Russlandverbindungen des US-Präsidenten eine von Gerüchten und Verschwörungstheorien geprägte Meinungsblase herausgebildet, konstatiert Zack Beauchamp. "The mirror image of Breitbart and InfoWars on the right, it focuses nearly exclusively on real and imagined connections between Trump and Russia. The tone is breathless: full of unnamed intelligence sources, certainty that Trump will soon be imprisoned, and fever dream factual assertions that no reputable media outlet has managed to confirm. (...) Experts on political misinformation see things differently. They worry that the unfounded speculation and paranoia that infect the Russiasphere risk pushing liberals into the same black hole of conspiracy-mongering and fact-free insinuation that conservatives fell into during the Obama years."

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"MOAB, the largest non-nuclear bomb ever used by the US military, explained"


Das US-Militär hat in Afghanistan seine größte konventionelle Bombe eingesetzt und dabei Berichten zufolge über 90 IS-Kämpfer getötet. Zack Beauchamp erläutert die Hintergründe der Operation. "According to experts on weapons and foreign policy, it seems this was a military decision, not a political one, based on the realities on the ground in Afghanistan right now. (...) The more important questions here are the standard ones you should ask after any US airstrike. Did the strike accomplish its objectives? Are the initial reports that there were no civilian casualties correct? Were the appropriate precautions taken to minimize the risks of the strike? Was the strike proportional to the threat, and did the value of the military target justify the risk of killing innocents? The fact that these questions remain unanswered, however, is normal at this point — they usually take a while to fully investigate, and we just heard about the bomb. But just because a larger-than-normal bomb was used here doesn’t mean there’s necessarily anything out of the ordinary."

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Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? Sicherheitspolitik.bpb.de liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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