US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

War on the Rocks


suche-links1 2 3 4 5 6 7suche-rechts


"'Negative Peace'? China's Approach to the Middle East."

Guy Burton vom Vesalius College in Brüssel analysiert die Motive der chinesischen Nahost-Politik und kommt zu dem Schluss, dass Peking die von der Hegemonialmacht USA dominierte regionale Ordnung bisher nicht ernsthaft herausfordere. "Although China has worked with different regimes across the Middle East, that does not mean that the prevailing regional order is under severe challenge yet. To understand the situation, it is important to recognize the role of established and rising powers — the United States and China, respectively — and the behaviors they exhibit. (…) it will prove challenging for China to apply its concept of peace through development in the region. But regardless of whether it works, the new tactic does herald a change in Chinese behavior in relation to conflict management and resolution. Instead of the more defensive, responsive actor it has been in the past, China appears set to become a more proactive participant. For that reason, U.S. and other Western policymakers should take note and respond accordingly."

Mehr lesen


"Opening Up New Avenues to Understanding the Path to War in Iraq"

Joseph Stieb stellt das Buch "To Start a War: How the Bush Administration Took America Into Iraq" des New-York-Times-Journalisten Robert Draper vor, der sich eingehend mit der Entscheidung der damaligen US-Regierung für den Irak-Krieg beschäftigt hat. "This book’s value lies in its meticulous reconstruction of the Bush administration’s decision-making processes, its gathering and use of intelligence on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, and its internal divides. However, the book does little more than this, leaving the larger interpretive task of 'going wide' to other scholars. These limitations suggest that scholars should increasingly focus on how Americans’ perceptions of Saddam Hussein and Baathist Iraq formed over the previous decades, not just in policymaking circles but in broader cultural, intellectual, political spheres. In order to write this book, Draper conducted 300 interviews with policymakers, politicians, intellectuals, and high and mid-level personnel throughout the relevant departments and agencies of government."

Mehr lesen


"The Looming Influx of Foreign Fighters in Sub-Saharan Africa"

Die bewaffneten Konflikte in Subsahara-Afrika eskalieren derzeit nicht nur, sie nehmen Austin C. Doctor zufolge auch neue Formen an. Dies habe mehrere Ursachen: "This change is instigated by three factors: the steady propagation of Islamist insurgency, escalating inter-militant competition, and fallout from the pandemic. Combined, they open the door to an increased influx of foreign fighters in sub-Saharan Africa. While they present their share of organizational challenges, foreign fighters tend to make insurgent organizations more resilient to military defeat, expand the range of tactics available to local insurgents, and increase the severity of targeted violence against civilians. Of particular concern is the risk that conflicts in the region will attract veteran 'career foreign fighters' who present a greater security threat than one-off foreign fighters. This carries important implications for regional security and, by extension, for global actors with active interests on the continent."

Mehr lesen


"Ten Suggestions for a 'Russia Strategy' for the United Kingdom"

Großbritannien sucht derzeit nach einer neuen Strategie für den Umgang mit Russland. Mark Galeotti hat zehn Empfehlungen: "1. Tackle the 'Oligarch Problem,' but First Decide What It Is (…) 2. Russian Organized Crime Is Not Just for the Police (…) 3. Fight Disinformation Through Demand, not Supply (…) 4. Upping Britain’s Intelligence Game, a Critical and Expensive Task (…) 5. A War with Russia Is Unlikely, but Planning for It Is Critical (…) 6. Cultivate Solidarity by Defending Others (…) 7. Engagement Is a Weapon Too (…) 8. Dig in but Stay Optimistic (…) 9. Know Your Enemy (…) 10. Make Strategy Matter Again (…) The point is, after all, that all this matters. It matters not just in terms of the challenge from Moscow — which, after all, needs to be taken seriously, but not exaggerated — but also because the skills, policies, attitudes, and strategy adopted today are likely to be needed to face rather more problematic threats tomorrow. As China moves into the 'wolf warrior diplomacy' phase of its rise, Britain might even want to thank the Kremlin for the early wake-up call and opportunity to build these capabilities."

Mehr lesen


"Trump's Nuclear Test Would Risk Everything to Gain Nothing"

Die US-Regierung habe sich unter Präsident Trump bereits aus drei wichtigen sicherheitspolitischen Verträgen zurückgezogen, schreibt Justin Key Canfil. Für Anhänger einer internationalen Rüstungskontrolle könne es um einiges schlimmer werden, sollten sich die Gerüchte um einen neuen Atomwaffentest des US-Militärs bestätigen. "Nuclear testing, even at very low yields, would jeopardize the hard-fought Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which prohibits its signatories from testing nuclear weapons in any environment. The treaty was arguably one of the most difficult packages the United States has ever negotiated, and though it has floundered in the Senate since the 1990s, it remains a cornerstone of U.S. nuclear nonproliferation policy. President Bill Clinton, who signed the comprehensive test ban in 1996, described it as the 'longest sought, hardest fought prize in the history of arms control.' More than 160 countries have ratified the treaty — not including the United States and China who are among the few to have signed but not yet ratified it — but the treaty has yet to enter into force. Some have questioned whether the Trump administration has plans to unsign the treaty. Moreover, renewed nuclear testing could unravel all past efforts to generate worldwide buy-in. (…) Nuclear testing by the United States would destabilize the international system and undermine American national interests. By unraveling the tapestry of arms control that previous generations fought hard to achieve, the United States risks creating more problems for itself than it solves."

Mehr lesen


"Corona and Bioterrorism: How Serious Is the Threat?"

Die Corona-Pandemie hat die Debatte über das Bedrohungspotenzial bioterroristischer Anschläge neu angestoßen. Marc-Michael Blum und Peter Neumann erinnern allerdings daran, dass die Geschichte des Bioterrorismus auch eine Geschichte des Scheiterns sei. "For the vast majority, the technical challenges associated with weaponizing biological agents have proven insurmountable. The only reason this could change is if terrorists were to receive support from a state. Rather than panic about terrorists engaging in biological warfare, governments should be vigilant, secure their own facilities, and focus on strengthening international diplomacy. (…) It seems clear, therefore, that governments’ priority should be to limit the potential for states and terrorist groups to cooperate, because it is only through states that terrorists are likely to obtain a significant bio-terrorist capability. In practical terms, this means developing intelligence capabilities, securing facilities, and making sure that government scientists — especially those working with high-risk pathogens — are regularly vetted. Biosecurity also requires well-funded and functioning public health systems, which limit the potential consequences of any attack."

Mehr lesen


"China's Strategic Assessment of the Ladakh Clash."

Yun Sun vom China Program des Stimson Center erklärt den strategischen Hintergrund des gefährlichen Grenzzwischenfalls zwischen den beiden Atommächten China und Indien aus chinesischer Perspektive. "A border settlement between China and India is unlikely in the foreseeable future, and Beijing believes it has little incentive to push for a quick resolution. China’s priority remains crisis management and escalation prevention, until India is willing to embrace a package deal which basically follows the earlier trade between the eastern section and the western section, with the exception of Tawang. (…) China’s obstinance and assertiveness in the current standoff came as a surprise to some. In the view of foreign observers, China is pushing India too harshly at a time when China needs to retain India’s friendship, given Beijing’s deteriorating ties with Washington and the reputational damage China has suffered due to its culpability in the global pandemic. This logic holds some truth, but fails to appreciate China’s concern that India is exploiting its vulnerability, particularly at a time when Beijing is grappling with COVID-19. (…) The good news, if any, is that the turbulence is necessary (but not sufficient) to consolidate a LAC that neither side will like but which both could likely accept in the future. (…) The bad news is that the process will be long, destabilizing, and could include more casualties. Neither side will easily abandon their tactical objectives."

Mehr lesen


"America Shouldn't Restart Production of Weapons-Grade Uranium"

Die US-Energiebehörde hat angekündigt, die 1992 eingestellte Produktion von hochangereichertem Uran wieder aufzunehmen. Alan J. Kuperman kritisiert die Entscheidung und empfiehlt eine Alternative: "Under a new 'strategy to assure U.S. National Security,' the department declared in April a 'well-defined future defense need' to produce 'highly-enriched uranium needed to fuel Navy nuclear reactors in the 2050s,' when the existing stockpile supposedly will run out. So, while the U.S. government is demanding that Iran and other countries not initiate production of weapons-grade uranium, we would do exactly that ourselves. It is hard to imagine a policy more damaging to U.S. national-security efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. Fortunately, this policy disaster could be avoided through technological innovation. As Congress has urged for five years, the U.S. Navy should explore designing its next generation of aircraft carriers and submarines with reactors that run on low-enriched uranium (LEU), which is unsuitable for nuclear weapons, instead of the Navy’s traditional weapons-grade fuel. Not only would this avoid the contentious restart of HEU production, it could prevent other countries like Iran from claiming to require weapons-grade uranium for their navies, and it would reduce terrorism risks at Tennessee’s civilian facility that makes Navy fuel. Such safer LEU fuel is already utilized successfully by the navies of France and China."

Mehr lesen


"A Healthy Dose of Realism: Stopping COVID-19 Doesn't Start with the WHO"

Der Politikwissenschaftler Frank L. Smith III widerspricht dagegen der Ansicht, dass eine erfolgreiche Bekämpfung der Corona-Pandemie nur unter der Führung der Weltgesundheitsorganisation möglich sei. Wichtiger sei eine effektive Kooperation der Großmächte. Als historischen Beleg für seine These verweist er auf die erfolgreiche Ausrottung der Pocken während des Kalten Kriegs. "Conventional wisdom credits the WHO for eradicating smallpox, and yet, contrary to popular belief, WHO leadership opposed this campaign. The eradication of smallpox started and succeeded thanks to the Soviet Union and United States. This political history provides insight into how to combat COVID-19 during the current era of great-power competition. Eradicating smallpox was the greatest public health victory in history. (…) A great-power concert won’t save the world. It will help nation-states — particularly the United States and China — help themselves in the midst of great-power competition. It will also accomplish more than damning the WHO or expecting miracles from international institutions. As with the eradication of smallpox, the WHO and the rest of the world will follow when the great powers choose to lead."

Mehr lesen


"Is Human Rights Training Working with Foreign Militaries? No One Knows and That's O.K."

Das Pentagon und das US-Außenministerium betreiben ein Programm, bei dem Sicherheitskräften verbündeter Staaten beigebracht werden soll, bei ihren Einsätzen Menschenrechte und internationale Normen zu beachten. Emily Knowles und Jahara Matisek zufolge gibt es keine Auswertung, aus der abzulesen sei, wie erfolgreich diese Bemühungen in der Praxis wären. "A recent War on the Rocks article by Melissa Dalton and Tommy Ross identified American assistance to Uganda as an example of the paradox of trying to make a partner force that is effective and abides by international laws and norms. However, Uganda’s military isn’t the only problem child. American security assistance to Afghanistan, Cameroon, Chad, Iraq, Somalia, and many more countries, suffers from various problems and traps ranging from creating Fabergé Egg militaries (expensive to build but easy for insurgents to break) to assisting powerful counter-terrorism partner forces that commit atrocities. (…) Now that the Government Accountability Office has recommended clear timelines and plans for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of human rights training for foreign security forces, this is a good opportunity to examine what these programs are delivering."

Mehr lesen


"COVID-19 and America's Counter-Terrorism Response."

Lydia Khalil stellt enttäuscht fest, dass die "Fixierung auf die Terrorismusbekämpfung" im sicherheitspolitischen Establishment Washingtons auch von der Coronakrise nicht erschüttert worden sei. "Ever since the Sept. 11 attacks, U.S. foreign policy and national security have been swallowed whole by counter-terrorism considerations, even as a number of counter-terrorism experts have cautioned against overemphasizing the terrorist threat. If anything could ever shake the United States out of its counter-terrorism fixation it would be a crisis of even greater magnitude than 9/11. It seemed like that moment finally came with the COVID-19 pandemic, as the death toll in New York alone has been greater than the 9/11 attacks. Yet what we have seen so far is the opposite. Instead of reorienting toward other paradigms and reexamining its strategic priorities, the United States continues to reflexively overextend its counter-terrorism tools to deal with some of the more problematic aspects of the virus’ spread."

Mehr lesen


"Disease and Diplomacy in the 19th Century"

Andrew Ehrhardt vom King’s College London wirft einen Blick in die Geschichte und beschreibt, wie Staaten früher auf diplomatischer Ebene mit Epidemien umgegangen sind. Bis zum 19. Jahrhundert habe dabei die Verhängung von Quarantänen im Mittelpunkt gestanden, seitdem gebe es eine zunehmende internationale Kooperation. "(…) the practice of quarantine defined the relationship between disease and diplomacy for much of modern history. Yet toward the midpoint of the nineteenth century, as the industrial revolution significantly increased manufacturing within nations and the trade between them, both national and international opinions on quarantines found the practice ever more cumbersome and costly. After a particularly deadly outbreak of cholera in 1832, the British government implemented strict quarantine measures which drew the ire of English businessmen, traders, and merchants, leading some to argue that cholera was a 'humbug got up for the destruction of our commerce.' Likewise, on a regional and global level, the impact on trade and commerce was inconsistent and increasingly debilitating. (…) The need to resolve this uncomfortable strain between pandemic on the one hand, and progress and prosperity on the other, was one of the reasons European governments once again advocated for nations to cooperate on matters relating to the spread of disease. (…) The relationships between disease, science, nationalism, and internationalism in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries have been highlighted by a number of historians in the past; yet these linkages seem to be undervalued by a number of commentators today. On the subject of international order, in particular, the pessimism of some leading thinkers is discouraging."

Mehr lesen


"Aftershocks: The Coronavirus Pandemic and the New World Disorder"

Zur Einordnung der Corona-Pandemie werden oft Vergleiche zur globalen Grippewelle von 1918 angestellt. Colin H. Kahl und Ariana Berengaut empfehlen dagegen, den Blick auf die beiden Jahrzehnte zu richten, die jener Pandemie folgten: "This period, often referred to as the interwar years, was characterized by rising nationalism and xenophobia, the grinding halt of globalization in favor of beggar-thy-neighbor policies, and the collapse of the world economy in the Great Depression. Revolution, civil war, and political instability rocked important nations. (…) Even before COVID-19, shadows of the interwar years were beginning to re-emerge. The virus, however, has brought these dynamics into sharper relief. And the pandemic seems likely to greatly amplify them as economic and political upheaval follows, great-power rivalry deepens, institutions meant to encourage international cooperation fail, and American leadership falters. In this respect, as Richard Haas notes, the COVID-19 pandemic and the aftershocks it will produce seem poised to 'accelerate history,' returning the world to a much more dangerous time."

Mehr lesen


"Leak Reveals Jihadists' Weakening Grip in Syria's Idlib"

Sam Heller berichtet über eine Audioaufnahme, die darauf hindeute, dass die Vorherrschaft der radikalislamischen Gruppe Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) über die syrische Idlib-Provinz ins Wanken geraten sei. "A newly leaked recording of a pep talk by HTS figure Abu al-Fateh al-Farghali to the group’s rank and file provides a unique insight into what HTS was telling its members as they defended Idlib from a Syrian military offensive earlier this year. (…) as HTS-led rebels have lost more ground to the Syrian army and Turkey has injected more forces into Idlib unilaterally, al-Farghali says the terms the group originally imposed on Turkey from a position of strength are 'void.' Turkey has since made new promises to counter HTS, per the March 5 protocol it agreed with Russia to halt Idlib’s latest bout of violence. And if this leaked recording is to be believed, the modus vivendi that had existed between Turkey and HTS has been destabilized."

Mehr lesen


"Germany, Wilsonianism, and the Return of Realpolitik"

Nach Ansicht von Dominik Wullers treffen in der sicherheitspolitischen Debatte in Deutschland Pazifisten und "Wilsonianer" aufeinander. "Pacifism is the strict rejection of any use of force, irrespective of the goal. (…) Wilsonianism, on the other hand, accepts a narrow set of reasons for military intervention. The protection or enforcement of human rights sits chief among them. Both pacifism and Wilsonianism, however, adhere to strictly ethical goals. Neither would accept the realpolitik goals of stability and order as valid and especially not using military means to achieve them. Subsequently, the debate in Germany has not been between pacifists and realists, but between pacifists and Wilsonians. (…) Germany would do well to continue its multilateral path with successful and stabilizing organizations such as NATO or the United Nations because prosperity, stability, and order may depend on it. A stable order is easy to take for granted — the current Corona crisis aptly demonstrates this. At the same time, Germany should and already does realize that the world extends beyond Europe. The toolkit of a nation such as Germany needs more than hopes and dreams for a better world. It needs a good dosage of realism — and it needs to drop the intellectual quotation marks around 'great-power competition'."

Mehr lesen


"Al-Qaeda: Threat or Anachronism?"

Nachdem US-Außenminister Pompeo die Al-Qaida als "Schatten ihrer selbst" bezeichnet hat, erläutern die beiden Terrorismus-Experten Bruce Hoffman und Jacob Ware, warum sie derartige Siegesmeldungen für verfrüht halten. "Sixteen years ago, Osama bin Laden explained in his last publicly released videotaped statement that al-Qaeda was waging a 'war of attrition to fight tyrannical superpowers.' He boasted that the group and its Afghan mujahedeen partners had 'bled Russia for 10 years, until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat' from Afghanistan in 1989, and predicted that al-Qaeda would do the same to the United States. With the signing of the landmark U.S.-Taliban peace agreement and drawdowns from both the Syrian and African theaters, bin Laden’s prediction is becoming prophecy. To be sure, the defeat of the Islamic State and the dismantling of its caliphate — coupled with al-Qaeda’s prolonged quiescence — have created the impression that the fight against Salafi-Jihadi terrorism is over. However, the then-commander of the U.S. Central Command presciently reminded us of the opposite back in 2013: 'No war is over until the enemy says it’s over. We may think it over, we may declare it over,' General James N. Mattis warned, 'but in fact, the enemy gets a vote.'"

Mehr lesen


"Cleaning up Turkey's Mess in Idlib and Ending the War"

Aus humanitärer Sicht wäre es nach Ansicht von Aaron Stein am besten, wenn der Konflikt in der syrischen Idlib-Provinz durch eine von Ankara vermittelte Kapitulation der Rebellen beendet werden würde. Die US-Regierung sollte entsprechenden Druck auf die Türkei ausüben, so Stein. "The United States is Turkey’s ally, but has little interest in the Turkish armed forces being bogged down in an unwinnable war in Syria, taking casualties and being humiliated by Russian bombardment. It is distracting. A ceasefire makes sound strategic sense. It also would be preferable to an outcome in which more Syrians will die fighting for an unwinnable endeavor. Negotiations with Russia will not be easy, nor straightforward. Idlib is a massive humanitarian catastrophe and the Assad regime is almost certain to exact revenge on innocent civilians it accuses of being disloyal. The United States ought to work to prevent this, but the path to doing so is not continuing aid to an insurgency that will not win."

Mehr lesen


"Leaving Afghanistan: Pulling Out without Pulling the Rug Out"

Angesichts von Berichten über eine möglicherweise bevorstehende Unterzeichnung eines Friedensabkommens zwischen den USA und den Taliban denkt Joe Felter über eine angemessene Exit-Strategie des US-Militärs nach. Der Abzug der Sowjetarmee aus Afghanistan im Jahr 1989 halte in diesem Zusammenhang wichtige Lehren bereit. "History provides a precedent for cautious optimism by the United States as it engages the Afghan government in charting a path forward in the execution of this conditional agreement. The Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 — the last time a great power departed this conflict-ridden region after years of occupation — offers some important lessons on achieving minimalist objectives in the wake of failure to achieve more ambitious strategic objectives. And Moscow did so with modest expenditure of resources and with some degree of success. (…) Katya Drozdova and I recently explained in the Journal of Cold War Studies the key components of the Soviet exit strategy and how it was implemented. Through a systematic mining of official records and previously classified transcripts of the internal discourse of the Politburo in Moscow, we reconstruct the Soviet strategy’s critical aspects and identify salient lessons that can help inform decisions the United States must make as it plans and executes its withdrawal from the country after nearly two decades of occupation and conflict."

Mehr lesen


"Germany's 5G Debate Ought Not Be a Referendum on Donald Trump"

Julianne Smith vom Center for a New American Security empfiehlt Deutschland, die Debatte über eine Beteiligung des chinesischen Unternehmens Huawei am Ausbau der 5G-Netze nicht im Kontext der schwierigen Beziehungen zu Donald Trump zu betreiben. "At its core, this is a debate about German values and German security as Chancellor Merkel decides whether she wants to continue relying on a Chinese telecom company that China could use for espionage or coercive purposes. The great irony here is that while the Trump administration clearly has strong views on the matter, the United States isn’t promoting an alternative vendor. It doesn’t have one. (…) it is critical that Berlin tune out the noise, hear from other voices, and focus on the fundamentals. Given that the European project sits at the heart of German foreign and economic policy, the European Union’s position on this issue should count for a lot. (…) Berlin may want to hear more from democratic allies who have either recently taken their own decision on 5G or are currently grappling with the issue. (…) Finally, when Germans see the Huawei posters claiming that '5G is about values,' I hope they nod in agreement, but not in the way Chinese state-aligned tech executives mean. (…) Ultimately, Berlin must make a 5G decision that respects and protects the values it holds dear."

Mehr lesen


"Russian Demographics and Power: Does the Kremlin Have a Long Game?"

Michael Kofman vom Wilson Center widerspricht demografischen Prognosen, die Russland eine unaufhaltsam zurückgehende Bevölkerungszahl und einen damit einhergehenden internationalen Machtverlust vorhersagen. "First, it is not fair to take the worst-case scenarios for any country’s demographic future and advance murky numbers as though they represent the likely outcome. (…) The prospective decline of Russia’s population is not only overstated but is also unlikely to substantially constrain Russian power or make the country less of a problem for the United States. Such notions are not only based on bad information, they have also become an alibi for the absence of U.S. strategy on what to do about Russia. (…) Instead of talking about Russia’s or China’s uncertain demographic future, U.S. policymakers should pay closer attention to the demographic situation of their own allies, like the Baltic states, which is more dire. Latvia’s and Lithuania’s populations have been in constant decline since 1991, and Ukraine’s is particularly problematic. (…) The core Russian problem is not demographics, but the fact that the economy and the political system are unable to tap into the talent and human potential of that country. Russia has the requisite attributes to be far more powerful and influential than it is today, with fewer people."

Mehr lesen


The three elephants of European Security

In den vergangenen Jahren hat es viele Absichtserklärungen zur Neuausrichtung der europäischen Sicherheitspolitik gegeben. Von einem Durchbruch könne jedoch keine Rede sein, solange drei grundlegende Probleme immer wieder sorgfältig umgangen werden, meint Johanna Möhring vom Institute for Statecraft in London. "Europeans and Americans need to address three elephants crowding the room of European security — some familiar, some less so. As so often with indoor pachyderms, they irritate, as they confront us with our inability to address them and our tendency to tiptoe around them. The three European security elephants will resonate differently depending on which side of the Atlantic you reside. But they need to be seen, and tackled, together. The First: A Creaking European Security Architecture (…) The Second: European Militaries Under Pressure (…) The Third: The Shackles of Institutions (…) Scrutinizing the three elephants in the room of European security — a security architecture underpinning the sovereignty of European countries that is faltering, a fundamentally challenged military, and defense cooperation at pains to keep up with the pace of geopolitical change — is an uncomfortable exercise. With the trans-Atlantic relationship remaining at the heart of European defense, and cornerstone of the European project, Americans and Europeans have no choice but to think and act together as the three pachyderms relentlessly question the future of European security."

Mehr lesen


"The Drone Beats of War: The U.S. Vulnerability to Targeted Killings"

David W. Barno und Nora Bensahel erwarten nach der gezielten Tötung von General Soleimani, dass US-Offizielle bald selbst zum Ziel derartiger Angriffe werden könnten. "As advanced technologies inexorably became cheaper and more widely available, the U.S. monopoly on these capabilities started to erode. By 2016, for example, eight countries other than the United States had conducted armed drone attacks, including Iran, Pakistan, and Nigeria. By 2019, Russia and two other countries joined this exclusive club. (…) The Soleimani strike has given potential U.S. adversaries every reason to accelerate their efforts to develop similar capabilities. Moreover, these same adversaries can now justify their own future targeted killings by invoking this U.S. precedent. Sooner or later — and probably sooner — senior U.S. civilian and military leaders will become vulnerable to the same types of decapitation strikes that the United States has inflicted on others."

Mehr lesen


"There Was No 'Secret War on the Truth' in Afghanistan"

Nach Ansicht des Sicherheitsexperten Jon Schroden erwecken die "Afghanistan Papers" der Washington Post den falschen Eindruck, dass es eine geheime Regierungskampagne zur Unterdrückung von Informationen über den tatsächlichen Stand der Dinge in Afghanistan gegeben habe. "The story the Post is telling is neither wholly true, nor supported by the documents it published. Instead, the Post’s reporting puts sensationalist spin on information that was not classified, has already been described in publicly-available reports, only covers a fraction of the 18 years of the war, and falls far short of convincingly demonstrating a campaign of deliberate lies and deceit. (…) My personal observations during the roughly 12 years I have been working on assessments of the Afghanistan war are that U.S. officials have not generally engaged in a deliberate campaign of lies and deceit of the American public when it came to progress in the war. Rather, what I’ve observed is shifting (and often unclear or arguably unachievable) strategic and policy objectives combined with aggressive optimism and an overwhelming 'can do' attitude on the part of U.S. government officials — especially within the military given its rigid hierarchy, and culture of following orders and vertical appeasement".

Mehr lesen


"How to Stabilize Ukraine Long Term? Securitize Well-Being"

Nach Ansicht der Sozialwissenschaftler Cynthia Buckley, Ralph Clem und Erik Herron sollte die US-Regierung die Ukraine künftig weniger durch Militärhilfe als durch zivile Programme zur Verbesserung des allgemeinen Lebensstandards und des gesellschaftlichen Engagements unterstützen. "Why? Because when people have confidence that their government is delivering basic services such as health care and education, and also ensuring that elections take place in a free and fair manner, they are more supportive of the state and more resistant to attempts to undermine the government’s legitimacy. These are components of what social scientists refer to as state capacity. In our view, state capacity — the means by which human security issues and challenges are addressed — should properly be seen as part of the state’s overall security architecture; that is, it can and should be securitized. (…) The most recent Gallup World Poll showed that only 9 percent of Ukrainian citizens had confidence in their national government, the lowest of any country globally by far. A large part of that dismal number owes, of course, to the debilitating effects of corruption, misgovernance, and the hybrid and kinetic destabilization efforts of neighboring Russia. The Ukrainian state has failed to provide adequately for its citizens. Absent major enhancements in state capacity, Ukrainians will continue to lack confidence in their government."

Mehr lesen


"Are We Entering a New Era of Far-Right Terrorism?"

Bruce Hoffman und Jacob Ware vom Council on Foreign Relations halten die rechtsextremen Terroranschläge der jüngeren Zeit in den USA für den möglichen Beginn einer Ära. Sie verweisen auf drei Faktoren, die zu der neuen Bedrohung beitragen: "Beyond ongoing violence, the rising far right should concern law enforcement and government for three reasons: its relationship with members of the military, employment of cutting-edge technology, and the infiltration of far-right ideologies into other extremist communities. Firstly, far-right groups and militias actively recruit from the U.S. military, particularly among returning servicemembers. (…). Secondly, today’s far-right extremists, like predecessors from previous generations, are employing cutting-edge technologies for terrorist purposes. (…) Finally, far-right ideologies have begun to infiltrate other extremist milieus, turning disparate communities into far-right hubs. Nowhere has this been more evident than in the incel ('involuntary celibate') movement, an online subculture of young, sometimes violent men frustrated at their inability to find sexual partners. (…) Fortunately, several of these issues parallel with law enforcement efforts against the Islamic State. (…) Lessons learned from the increasingly successful efforts to suppress the Islamic State’s online efforts should be applied to the far right; and lessons learned fighting the far right should be tested against the Salafi-jihadists."

Mehr lesen


"When Does Terrorism Have a Strategic Effect?"

Terroranschläge wie der vom 11. September 2001 können weitreichende strategische Auswirkungen haben, schreibt der Terrorismus-Experte Daniel Byman. Der folgenreichste Terroranschlag der Post-9/11-Ära, die Zerstörung eines schiitischen Schreins im Irak im Jahr 2006, habe sich z.B. als Auslöser eines jahrelangen Bürgerkriegs herausgestellt, obwohl der Anschlag selbst keine Todesopfer gefordert hatte. "Not all terrorism is created equal. Some attacks are merely blips on the terrorism radar screen, grabbing headlines for a few days before life resumes as before. Other attacks, however, shake the world. The strategic effects of such an attack go far beyond whether it helps a terrorist group win, and they can be divided into two areas. First, terrorism can affect conflict and international politics, shaping foreign policy, sparking international and civil wars, and preventing peace negotiations. Second, terrorism can undermine democracy by decreasing faith in public institutions. The strategic success of terrorism often depends as much on the government response as it does the terrorist attack itself: too little or too much counterterrorism can do the terrorists’ jobs for them."

Mehr lesen


"Military Deception: AI's Killer App?"

Der militärische Einsatz Künstlicher Intelligenz könnte auf dem Gebiet der gezielten Täuschung des Gegners nach Ansicht von Edward Geist und Marjory Blumenthal die auffälligsten Folgen haben. "Conventional wisdom has long held that advances in information technology would inevitably advantage 'finders' at the expense of 'hiders.' But that view seems to have been based more on wishful thinking than technical assessment. The immense potential of AI for those who want to thwart would-be 'finders' could offset if not exceed its utility for enabling them. Finders, in turn, will have to contend with both understanding reality and recognizing what is fake, in a world where faking is much easier. (…) Rather than lifting the 'fog of war,' AI and machine learning may enable the creation of 'fog of war machines' — automated deception planners designed to exacerbate knowledge quality problems."

Mehr lesen


"Will Displaced Syrians Ever Return? History Says No"

Die Flüchtlingsexpertin Kara Ross Camarena und der Konfliktforscher Nils Hägerdal bezweifeln, dass der Großteil der syrischen Flüchtlinge tatsächlich in die Heimat zurückkehren wird. "Refugees who are displaced outside Syria must eventually decide whether to return to the country at all; inside Syria, all displaced persons must choose whether to return to their original homes or settle elsewhere in the country. So, if the Syrian civil war came to a decisive conclusion in the near future, would displaced Syrians return to their original homes? Judging by historical precedent, we should expect that most of them will not. (...) Millions of Syrians have spent the last several years trying to build a new life outside of Syria and many of them will never return to their country of birth. Those who do return — perhaps because of a particularly compelling emotional connection to home, or because their host country makes their lives miserable — join several million internally displaced persons who also have to decide where and how to rebuild their lives. Historical experience and demographic trends suggest that they will mostly settle in large and growing cities. The most important policy implication of this argument is that as the international community begins to plan for postwar reconstruction in Syria, stakeholders should focus on rebuilding the major cities and expect displaced persons to flock there."

Mehr lesen


"Terrorist Groups, Artificial Intelligence, and Killer Drones."

Jacob Ware warnt, dass die zunehmenden Möglichkeiten von Waffensystemen mit Künstlicher Intelligenz auch von Terroristen genutzt werden könnten. "AI will enable terrorist groups to threaten physical security in new ways, making the current terrorism challenge even more difficult to address. According to a February 2018 report, terrorists could benefit from commercially available AI systems in several ways. The report predicts that autonomous vehicles will be used to deliver explosives; low-skill terrorists will be endowed with widely available high-tech products; attacks will cause far more damage; terrorists will create swarms of weapons to 'execute rapid, coordinated attacks'; and, finally, attackers will be farther removed from their targets in both time and location. As AI technology continues to develop and begins to proliferate, 'AI [will] expand the set of actors who are capable of carrying out the attack, the rate at which these actors can carry it out, and the set of plausible targets.'"

Mehr lesen


"AI Will Change War, But Not in the Way You Think"

Jonathan Clifford, Regierungsberater und Reserveoffizier der U.S. Navy, erwartet nicht, dass die zunehmende Einführung Künstlicher Intelligenz im Militär den Charakter des Krieges grundlegend verändern wird. "Unlike science fiction movies, which depict the technology itself as an instrument of war, AI will function primarily as an enabler. AI will change how wars are fought, but not the nature of war. War is still, and will forever be, applied violence to achieve a political goal. (...) Nevertheless, AI is sure to permeate every aspect of warfighting — from movement to communication, logistics, intelligence, weapons, and people. (...) The race to acquire AI will be different than the race for the atomic bomb, intercontinental missiles, or precision-guided munitions. Some aspects will be similar — nations will attempt to be the first to develop and acquire AI systems and applications. But rather than a single space race 'Sputnik moment,' there will be continuous milestones in the AI race — algorithm updates, software patches, etc. The near-term difference between AI and previous technological innovations is that AI is iterative, incremental, and, most importantly, an enabler of all parts of warfare."

Mehr lesen

suche-links1 2 3 4 5 6 7suche-rechts

Hier finden Sie die Redaktion der Sicherheitspolitischen Presseschau.

Mehr lesen



Europa, Asien, Afrika, Amerika und weltweite Phänomene und Institutionen. Die bpb bietet ein breites Angebot zu internationalen Themen.

Mehr lesen


Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

Mehr lesen auf


Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

Mehr lesen

Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

Mehr lesen

Publikationen zum Thema

Internationale Sicherheitspolitik Cover

Internationale Sicherheitspolitik

Seit Ende des Ost-West-Konflikts hat sich die internationale Sicherheitspolitik deutlich verändert....

Das Herz verlässt keinen Ort, an dem es hängt

Das Herz verlässt keinen Ort, an dem es hängt

16 Autor*innen aus Krisengebieten wünschen sich für ihre Zukunft weiterschreiben zu können. In di...

Sicherheitspolitik verstehen

Sicherheitspolitik verstehen

Wie sieht eine zeitgemäße Sicherheitspolitik angesichts einer zunehmend komplexer werdenden und st...

Am Hindukusch – und weiter?

Am Hindukusch – und weiter?

Ende 2014 zogen die letzten deutschen ISAF-Truppen aus Afghanistan ab. Dieser Band zieht Bilanz, fra...

Fluter Terror


Terrorismus bedroht die offene Gesellschaft und die kulturelle Vielfalt. Er ist uns fremd, aber er k...

Zum Shop