US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

The Strategist

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»http://www.aspistrategist.org.au«

02.12.2020

"What are the chances of a new 'grand bargain' between the US and Iran?"

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/what-are-the-chances-of-a-new-grand-bargain-between-the-us-and-iran/

Der neuen US-Regierung werden weniger als sieben Monate bleiben, um mit der aktuellen iranischen Führung einen diplomatischen Durchbruch herbeizuführen, schreibt Ian Dudgeon. "Biden’s election offers Iran the timely opportunity to offer the US a new grand bargain. Timeliness is important. If that offer is as broad in scope as the one in 2003, and pitched to Biden before he takes office and announces his Middle East policy, it could significantly shape US policy to the broader security benefit of both nations, and the region. Iran could, in fact, enhance its pitch and build on past goodwill by including a willingness to release more foreign detainees, such as Australian academic Kylie Moore-Gilbert, but not necessarily tying all to prisoner swaps. (…) negotiations won’t begin from a cold start. Both Rouhani and Zarif know Biden personally from his time as vice-president, and for Zarif well before that. Zarif also knows Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser designate. As Rouhani cannot seek re-election in mid-2021, and Zarif is unlikely to serve as foreign minister beyond then, they have a maximum of seven months, and in reality less than that, to progress any deal. Who will succeed either man isn’t known, but significant early progress that delivers Iran economic relief could have an impact on who’s elected to replace Rouhani and the likely shape of future negotiations."

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21.10.2020

"Cheap drones versus expensive tanks: a battlefield game-changer?"

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/cheap-drones-versus-expensive-tanks-a-battlefield-game-changer/

Der Konflikt in Bergkarabach könnte sich aus militärischer Perspektive als "Game Changer" herausstellen, schreibt Malcolm Davis. "The use of armed drones isn’t new, of course. Predator and Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) armed with Hellfire missiles were used extensively in Afghanistan and elsewhere. Australia is acquiring the armed MQ-9B Sky Guardian. What’s different in the current conflict in the Caucasus is the use of low-cost 'loitering munition' systems bought from allies. Each drone costs far less than a crewed platform or a fully reusable UAV. In the future, rapid manufacturing technologies will allow them to be acquired at low cost and used in large swarms. That’s a potential game-changer for land warfare. This has generated debate on whether expensive and technologically sophisticated armored vehicles can survive in future battles against masses of cheap 'suicide drones'. Is the tank, which first emerged on the battlefields of the Western Front in 1917, now approaching the twilight years of its military utility?"

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26.03.2020

"Coronavirus and the looming refugee crisis"

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/coronavirus-and-the-looming-refugee-crisis/

Denis Dragovic warnt vor den Konsequenzen eines Ausbruchs der Corona-Epidemie in Flüchtlingslagern. Die betroffenen Regierungen hätten in diesem Fall drei Optionen: "The first is to focus medical services on their own people, mobilising health workers and drawing on strategic stockpiles to do what they can to protect their citizens. The refugees in this scenario will be left in the already overstretched hands of the international community. (…) The second is to contain the camps by force. Just as the Chinese government shut down Hubei and the Italian government shut down Lombardy, any geographic area including a refugee camp can be closed off. The difference, though, is the built environment. Camps don’t have running water, piped gas or sewerage systems. (…) The last option, the most audacious yet also the easiest, is to facilitate a mass migration of people out of a host government’s territory. Don’t think that that’s beyond the realm of possibility. (…) From a humanitarian perspective, none of these three options is preferable. But for pragmatic decision-makers in Western donor capitals, the first is the best of the three as it contains the risks. To convince governments hosting refugees to choose this path, wealthy countries will need to do more than express empathy or organise donor conferences — they will need to provide financial support now."

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