US-Soldaten in Afghanistan

The German Marshall Fund of the United States




"What Does Putin Want with Ukraine - and How Does He Plan to Get It?"

Russlands Präsident Wladimir Putin erachte die derzeitige westliche Sicherheitsarchitektur als inakzeptabel und für sein Land bedrohlich, erläutern Liana Fix und Michael Kimmage. "It is unacceptable because it manifests a series of tightening military, political, and economic relationships between Ukraine and the West, and Putin sees the West as fundamentally hostile to Russia. The current set-up is dangerous, in Putin's eyes, not so much because of what these relationships amount to in the winter of 2021-2022, but because of what they have the potential to become, which is a combined force capable either of countering Russian interests in its neighborhood or of destabilizing Russia itself by modeling a different kind of regime. Ukraine's possible membership in NATO symbolizes the security dilemma Putin perceives on his Western border, but the dilemma itself runs much deeper than the unlikely prospects of NATO membership for Ukraine. What Putin wants is to unwind the tightening military, political, and economic relationships between Ukraine and the West."

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"Closing Window: Transatlantic Cooperation on China Under Biden"

Die EU und die USA sollten gegenüber China zusammenarbeiten, argumentiert Noah Barkin. "(…) [T]here is no alternative to closer cooperation on China if the United States and Europe want to defend democratic values, human rights, and the rule of law around the world, to establish widely accepted standards for the digital era, and to ensure their economic and national security. (…) Ultimately, the United States and Europe will need to accept that perfect alignment on China will not be possible - and to ensure that their differences do not get in the way of broader goals. The aim should be a gradual convergence of views across the Atlantic on how the challenges presented by China's rise are understood and tackled."

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"China, 5G, and NATO Security"

China werde in den kommenden Jahren ein zentrales Thema in den transatlantischen Beziehungen sein, prognostizieren Julia Pallanch und Amy Yanan Zhang. "China now intersects with NATO's agenda in several ways and occupies a far more entrenched part of the discussion. While NATO is not in a military conflict with China, Beijing remains a key geopolitical competitor to the West. Moreover, the United States sees China as a direct national security threat, and several plausible contingencies could draw the two sides into military confrontation. (…) While there are still debates about how far Europe and the United States should be aligned on China, the European NATO members have traditionally assumed part of the U.S. security and defense agenda in exchange for security guarantees."

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"Gen Z and Changing Transatlantic Foreign Policy Perceptions"

Laut einer Umfrage des German Marshall Fund of the United States hätten Angehörige der europäischen und nordamerikanischen Generation Z - Menschen, die nach 1996 geboren wurden - andere Einstellungen zur Weltordnung und internationalen Sicherheit als vorige Generationen, erläutert Gesine Weber. "Europeans and North Americans under 25 are more likely than their older compatriots to perceive the world as bipolar or multipolar instead of seeing the United States as the uncontested leader in global affairs, and to hold more positive views on China. (…) In a nutshell, the opinion of young respondents expressed in Transatlantic Trends 2021 does not signal the death knell of the transatlantic relationship as we know it. Rather, it is a window to the future - and taking these perceptions seriously is a solid point of departure for setting the sails for European integration and transatlantic relations in a changing world and jointly designing this future."

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"Germany Must Again Live Up to Its Role as the United States' Partner"

Jackson Janes analysiert die Zukunft der transatlantischen Beziehungen in Folge der Bundestagswahl. "The potential coalition partners have affirmed their stance on sustaining partnership within the transatlantic framework. While traditional engagement in NATO is not being questioned, there are still issues that will continue to be debated within Germany and within NATO concerning defense budgets, the role of nuclear sharing, the use of drones, and the question of military engagement in the global arena. (…) With regard to German-American relations, there is currently an enormous amount of blowback in Berlin following the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan."

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"China's Goals after the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan"

Bonnie Glaser und Andrew Small skizzieren Chinas geopolitische Ziele in Afghanistan nach dem Abzug der US-Truppen: "China has several immediate goals. It wants to see a government emerge in Afghanistan that can consolidate its position, domestically and internationally. (…) Beijing doesn't want a sanctioned, pariah state in its neighborhood, and it doesn't want a government that will offer the illusion of total control only for things to unravel into another round of conflict at a later point. The window between the Taliban's victory and diplomatic recognition is also one where China can lean hard on its most important demand: that the Taliban abjure ties with transnational terror groups."

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"Broader and Deeper: Transatlantic Responsibilities in the 21st Century"

Ian Lesser erläutert, was die Schwerpunkte der künftigen transatlantischen Zusammenarbeit sein sollten: "First, our societies expect to be protected against evident risks, both old and new. The experience of the Covid-19 pandemic underscores the vulnerability of Europe and North America to unconventional as well as traditional risks. (…) Second, transatlantic partners have a responsibility to address pressing global challenges in a concerted fashion. Climate change is likely to be the animating global issue for U.S. - EU relations over the longer term. (…) Third, we need to take a more comprehensive view of transatlantic partnership. Transatlantic relations are not just about the Washington-Brussels-Berlin axis. The transatlantic community has a responsibility to think more creatively across latitudes. (…) Finally, the United States and Europe have a responsibility to avoid complacency. Populists and nationalists on both sides of the Atlantic have taken aim at elites, their institutions and their projects."

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"Germany's Last Chance to Partner with the United States in Leadership?"

Die Präsidentschaft Joe Bidens biete Deutschland die Chance, eine größere Rolle in der globalen Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik einzunehmen, argumentieren Liana Fix und Steven Keil. "(…) Biden's presidency provides a window for Germany to step up and deliver its long-held intention to assume more responsibility for its and Europe's security - one that it should not miss and is unlikely to see again soon. In light of pressures facing U.S. foreign policy and changing geopolitical realities, future administrations may engage Europe differently - through benign or intentional neglect. This could be Germany's best, and perhaps last chance, to be a partner in leadership with a U.S. administration that is rooted in the experience of 20th century transatlanticism."

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"Do Biden, Merkel, and Macron Agree on the Future for the West?"

Michal Baranowski vergleicht die Reden von US-Präsident Joe Biden, Frankreichs Präsident Emmanuel Macron und Deutschlands Kanzlerin Angela Merkel bei der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz 2021 und stellt fest: "After the four difficult years of the presidency of Donald Trump, Biden, Chancellor Angela Merkel, and President Emmanuel Macron all emphasized the importance of the transatlantic partnership. But they also presented quite different visions, with their main differences focused on three key strategic questions: Is the United States back? What to do about the rise of China? What should be the transatlantic policy toward Russia?"

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"Europe-India Cooperation on Indo-Pacific Security"

Die sicherheitspolitische Zusammenarbeit der EU mit Indien werde bei der Erarbeitung einer europäischen Indo-Pazifik-Strategie eine wichtige Rolle spielen, prognostiziert Frederic Grare und rät: "(…) India and the EU should jointly define the terms and framework of their security cooperation in advance of the adoption of an EU strategy in order to allow for an effective quid pro quo between two quite parallel visions on the Indo-Pacific and manage their expectations as well as their actual cooperation."

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"Turkish-Iranian Relations Are Set to Become More Turbulent"

Galip Dalay beschreibt die plötzliche Verschlechterung der türkisch-iranischen Beziehungen. "Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recited a nationalist Azerbaijani poem that refers to the forceful and artificial separation of the two sides of the Aras river, effectively dividing Azerbaijan from Iran's ethnic Azerbaijani province. This caused a political and emotional firestorm in Tehran and attracted Iranian condemnation and rancor. Led by Foreign Minister Javid Zarif, many Iranian officials took to Twitter to lambast Erdoğan and what they saw as pan-Turkish irredentism and a claim on Iran's territory."

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"Berlin’s New Pragmatism in an Era of Radical Uncertainty"

Stefan Fröhlich empfiehlt Deutschland und der EU in diesem Policy Paper des German Marshall Fund, der neuen US-Regierung nicht mit der "üblichen Mischung aus Resignation und Unentschlossenheit" gegenüberzutreten. "The current situation involves both opportunities and risks, but it does not mean the end of transatlantic cooperation. The Trump administration will realize that the future world order needs interconnected strategies and integrative systems. Without transatlantic cooperation, Washington will not get far in dealing with these challenges. Instead of reacting with the usual mix of resignation and indecision, Germany and its European partners should therefore use Trump’s threats as an opportunity to overcome their own political malaise. The best way to do so will be to provide strong evidence of German (and European) engagement — particularly via higher defense contributions, a more assertive stance vis-a-vis China’s trade and investment policies, and efforts to overcome bilateral trade imbalances."

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Informationsportal Krieg und Frieden

Wo gibt es Kriege und Gewaltkonflikte? Und wo herrscht am längsten Frieden? Welches Land gibt am meisten für Rüstung aus? liefert wichtige Daten und Fakten zu Krieg und Frieden.

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Innerstaatliche Konflikte

Vom Kosovo nach Kolumbien, von Somalia nach Süd-Thailand: Weltweit schwelen über 280 politische Konflikte. Und immer wieder droht die Lage gewaltsam zu eskalieren.

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Zahlen und Fakten


Kaum ein Thema wird so intensiv und kontrovers diskutiert wie die Globalisierung. "Zahlen und Fakten" liefert Grafiken, Texte und Tabellen zu einem der wichtigsten und vielschichtigsten Prozesse der Gegenwart.

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